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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 289 records · Page 16

TPSAS-NF1676L-35847-DND

Aerosols, especially particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters smaller than 2.5 ?m (PM2.5), contribute to air pollution and negatively impact human health. Past studies have estimated PM2.5 concentrations through the use of aerosol optical thickness (AOT) datasets from passive satellite sensors like MODIS and MISR. However, a major limitation of using passive AOTs for PM2.5 applications is that they are column-integrated, while PM2.5 is a surface measurement. In this study, we employ a bulk-mass-modeling-based method to directly derive PM2.5 concentrations over the contiguous United States (CONUS) using two years (2008-2009) of daytime and nighttime near-surface aerosol extinction retrievals from the NASA Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) instrument, bulk mass extinction efficiencies, and model-based hygroscopicity. Results reveal that CALIOP-derived PM2.5 agrees reasonably well with ground-based PM2.5 observations from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), implying this method exhibits some merit in monitoring PM2.5 concentrations from CALIOP data. The newly developed method is then applied to CALIOP aerosol extinction retrievals using nearly the entire CALIOP data record (2007-2018), and an initial trend analysis is conducted. Results from various sensitivity studies are also shown, including those of surface layer height and assumed aerosol type.

Travis D Toth↗

TPSAS-NF1676L-18322-DND

MetOp-A satellite was launched on 19 October 2006 and MetOp-B was launched on 17 September 2013. Two satellites fly in complementary orbits and in a sun synchronous morning orbit passing over the Equator at the same local time 9:30 am. MetOp-B phased 50 minutes apart from MetOp-A. Presented here are the global surface IR emissivity spectra retrieved from IASI measurements observed from both MetOp-A and MetOp-B satellites. Inter-comparison of the emissivities obtained from MetOp-A and MetOp-B is performed to ensure the continuity of emissivity monitoring and its trend analysis. Effort on emissivity validation continues with available ground in-situ measurements and retrieval consistency check through radiative transfer model simulations. The spatial resolution of emissivity climatology atlas is now increased from 0.5 to 0.25 degrees latitude-longitude, and available to the community.

Daniel K Zhou↗

The Role of Anomalous Satellite-Fixed Accelerations in TOPEX/Poseidon Orbit Maintenance

Shortly after the launch of TOPEX/Poseidon on 10 August 1992 orbit determination indicated orbital decay levels approximately 60 times larger than could be explained by atmospheric drag. Outgassing, a complex process of molecular releases from satellite non-metallic parts, was the most likely source of these early decay rates. The high decay levels steadily declined during the first six weeks while a planned sequence of six orbit adjust maneuvers placed the satellite in the operational orbit to precisely overfly a predetermined repeat ground track. At the same time, on-going orbit trend analysis revealed the presence of residual along-track forces comparable to atmospheric drag which clearly exhibited a body-fixed origin. These anomalous forces cause either orbital decay or boost, depending on the satellite attitude and solar array articulation mode. As such, these along-track forces can either add to, or oppose, the resident orbital decay due to drag...

Bhat, R.S.↗

Telemetry Anomaly Detection System using Machine Learning to Streamline Mission Operations

Spacecraft housekeeping telemetry is monitored at flight control centers by the operations engineers using tools that can perform limit checking or simple trend analysis. Recent developments in machine learning techniques for anomaly detection enables the implementation of more sophisticated systems that aim to augment current state-of-theart mission tools to provide valuable decision support for the spacecraft operators, assisting in anomaly detection and potentially saving console time for the engineers. We will show some results of the implementation of an anomaly detection tool for the NASA Mars Science Laboratory mission.

Weber, Romann↗

Delaware Ecological Forecasting: Assessing Land Cover and Soil to Identify Suitable Sites for Tidal Marsh Migration in Delaware

Tidal wetlands provide vital resources for the state of Delaware, crucial not only for maintaining important ecosystem functions, but also for providing human populations with substantial services. Healthy wetland networks offer protection from severe weather, reduce flooding, improve water quality, and provide opportunities for education and recreation. However, human activities in combination with natural events, continue to cause substantial loss of wetland cover and damage wetland health. Over the last thirty years, the state of Delaware has experienced a net loss of roughly 5,000 acres of wetland. In collaboration with the Delaware Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Control (DNREC), the team used NASA Earth observations including Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and Global Precipitation Measurement Integrated Multi-Satellite Retrievals (GPM IMERG) to develop a methodology to monitor recent changes in wetland cover and forecast landward marsh migration due to sea-level rise, changes to climate, and human development. Trend analysis of current and past climate conditions in precipitation and temperature revealed an overall increase in both metrics. Using Land Change Modeler in TerrSet and Suitability Modeler in ArcGIS Pro, the team visualized landcover shifts over the last 20 years, indicating a general pattern of net wetland loss and identified locations where marsh migration could potentially occur in the future. These observations will enable better planning for restoration activities and in form decision-making to preserve wetland health and ecosystem functions.

McKenna Brahler↗

The Impact of Drifting Orbits on the Monthly Regional TOA Flux Assuming Constant Meteorology

The NASA Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) gridded Single Scanner Footprint (SSF1deg) product provides TOA SW and LW monthly 1° regional all-sky fluxes, which are used to monitor the Earth’s energy balance. The CERES long-term climate data record relies on Terra and Aqua satellite sun-synchronous orbits that are maintained at 10:30 and 1:30 local equator crossing times (LECT), respectively. The Terra and Aqua satellites are expected to drift outside of their respective LECT during mid 2022. Both Terra and Aqua will drift over several years towards sunrise and sunset, respectively, and eventually will be deorbited. The CERES SSF1deg product monthly regional fluxes are based on the well calibrated and stable CERES observed fluxes and are temporally interpolated assuming constant meteorology between measurements to resolve the regional diurnal flux cycle to obtain a daily averaged flux. The drifting orbits may impact the monthly regional TOA flux over regions with systematic diurnal cycles, because the observations will shift in local time. The CERES project would like to determine the maximum Terra and Aqua LECT time shift before the monthly regional fluxes are diurnally impacted and become unreliable for long-term climate monitoring. To determine the impact of the drifting orbits on the SSF1deg monthly regional fluxes,15-minute Geostationary Earth Radiation Budget (GERB) broadband observed fluxes over the Meteosat geostationary satellite domain (±60° in longitude and latitude) are used as proxy CERES observations. The drifting orbit sampling pattern is achieved by simply incrementing the observation time by steps of 15 minutes from the CERES footprint time. For each 15-minute time interval, the CERES observed fluxes are replaced by the GERB observed fluxes. The-15 minute incremented monthly regional fluxes based on constant meteorology are compared to the reference 10:30 and 1:30 LECT fluxes. Regions with systematic diurnal cycles, include morning maritime stratus, where the clouds dissipate during the morning, and land afternoon convection, where clouds increase in the afternoon will impact the regional flux differences. Based on January and July 2010 GERB data, even a 15-minute LECT change caused regional monthly flux differences that would impact long term regional trend analysis. Results will be shown at the conference.

David Doelling↗

Natural Language Processing Techniques for Intelligent Knowledge Management of Safety Reports

Safety, failure, and incident reports are common artifacts across various domains, including aviation and wildfire response. These reports are often mandatory to submit, resulting in the culmination of large repositories of text-based documents. Simultaneously, these reports and corresponding repositories are often only manually analyzed and queried by users via out-of-date search engines. As a consequence, we have been developing the Manager for Intelligent Knowledge Access (MIKA) toolkit, which uses natural language processing to improve information access and reuse. In this presentation, we discuss natural language processing techniques for knowledge discovery and apply these methods to a repository of aerial wildfire mishap reports. Two methods are used for knowledge discovery: topic modeling and named-entity recognition. We use topic modeling to identify hazards and perform a trend analysis to produce a data-driven risk matrix. A custom named-entity recognition model, build from fine tuning a pre-trained language model, is used to identify failure modes, failure causes, failure effects, control processes, and recommendations to aid in failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA). Throughout the presentation, we discuss and apply natural language processing techniques to better leverage the vast amount of information contained in report repositories.

Machine learning↗

GEOS Constituent Data Assimilation Beyond Aura MLS: Assimilating NASA SAGE III/ISS Profiles of Stratospheric Water Vapor and Ozone

Ozone and water vapor in the lower stratosphere are important trace gases for atmospheric chemistry and radiative budget. The Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) missions have been crucial in monitoring the stratospheric ozone loss and the subsequent recovery as well as the trends in water vapor linked to surface temperature trends. The SAGE III instrument aboard the International Space Station (ISS) continues the SAGE mission record, with high vertical resolution profiles of ozone and water vapor available since mid 2017. The NASA GEOS Earth system model has the new capability to assimilate multi-constituents from ground and space-based instruments using the GEOS Constituent Data Assimilation System (CoDAS). The recently released MERRA-2 Stratospheric Composition Reanalysis with Aura MLS (M2-SCREAM) assimilates version 4.2 MLS ozone, water vapor and other chemically-reactive species with the NASA GEOS model coupled to a stratospheric-only chemistry mechanism and transport constrained to the MERRA-2 reanalysis. While the number of solar occultation observations a day from SAGE III/ISS is about 1% of the total number of profiles observed globally by MLS, the chemical timescales of ozone and water vapor in the lower stratosphere are long enough that the SAGE III/ISS data may provide a useful constraint on the assimilated product. Using the same GEOS CoDAS configuration as M2-SCREAM, we will present a series of experiments to investigate if ozone and water vapor trends are consistent with the assimilation of SAGE observations with and without Aura retrievals, and to determine if the assimilation of SAGE observations produces a steady product for trend analysis, especially as the end of the Aura mission nears. In our experiments, assimilating only SAGE III/ISS water vapor profiles results in water vapor fields more consistent with experiments that assimilate MLS v5; however, in the polar regions SAGE III/ISS observations are not available and the values are unconstrained. We are encouraged by the positive benefit assimilating the less frequent SAGE III/ISS observations has on stratospheric composition. Sensitivity experiments such as these will allow us to assess the added value of SAGE data for continued monitoring of the stratospheric composition for climate and ozone recovery assessments.

SAGE↗

Quantifying Leak Rates and Vacuum Impact on Granular Soil Column Pneumatic Seal

Introduction: All In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) regolith reactor systems that aim to extract gases or vapors must maintain a seal along the flow path of the regolith from the inlet hopper to where extracted gases or vapors are generated. Using a column of regolith at the inlet has been proposed as an alternative to systems using series of mechanical valves to reduce mass and complexity. Preliminary investigations into the use of regolith itself as a barrier to escaping fluids have been conducted, which this research seeks to expand upon. Different vertical regolith simulant plug diameters and heights were tested under vacuum with dry nitrogen to observe leak rates and approximate steady state pressure gradient equilibria. The effect of absolute ambient pressure was also studied by repeating tests at incremental pressures ranging from 10e-5 Torr up to 1 atm to corroborate ambient bench tests from previous work. The impact of regolith dynamics was addressed to emulate continuous-feed regolith reaction processes by measuring leak rates through continuously draining simulant columns. OB-1 lunar highlands regolith simulant was used. Experimental Setup: Regolith simulant columns were constructed using a motorized butterfly valve separating upper acrylic tubes of various diameters from a larger, lower aluminum pipe plenum (See Figure 1). The butterfly valve was cracked open such that gas could freely pass through whereas regolith would bridge and stay suspended as a cohesive plug above in the acrylic portion. These assemblies were loaded into a vacuum chamber, and a compressed dry nitrogen line was routed into the lower plenum. Pressure transducers measured the absolute pressure of the lower plenum, which was compared to absolute chamber pressure to monitor the pressure gradient across the regolith simulant. A precision mass flow controller enabled fine control of plenum pressure. The plenum pressure was quasi-statically increased to set points informed by previous work [1] before shutting off the gas supply to allow the now pressurized gas volume to dissipate through the simulant into the chamber in what was referred to as a ‘leak test.’ In a separate set of tests, the pressure was allowed to quasi-statically build until visual disturbances in the soil were observed via remote camera feeds. Initial leak rate tests were repeated on the disturbed soil to observe changes in leak rates between initial as-poured and post-bubbling soil conditions. This test schedule was applied to simulant columns of three different diameters (approximately 2, 4, and 6 inches) as well as two different heights (around 8 and 16 inches) and was repeated at least three times for each configuration. Plenums were also pressurized while the butterfly valves were opened slightly further to facilitate slow, controlled, constant flowrate draining of the simulant to observe the impact that continuous-feed systems might have on leak rate through the regolith column. Finally, the regolith columns were reset and refilled and static leak rate tests were repeated approximately every decade in ambient pressure from 10e-5 Torr up to ambient conditions to observe the impact of transitioning out of the molecular flow regime on regolith column seal performance. Analysis: Trends with respect to each factor examined were constructed and reported alongside commentary on the most likely responsible physical phenomena. Confidence intervals were applied to the predictive findings of the data by quantifying instrumentation error and accounting for probabilistic impacts of curve fitting the generic exponential function onto pressure decay data. The leak rate is assumed directly proportional to the exponential term coefficient, while the steady-state static pressure gradient is assumed to be the asymptotic limit of each curve fit. Finally, a generic model developed by Ogino et al. [2] and later tuned for ambient testing was re-tuned using vacuum data to estimate leak rates on the lunar surface. Results: Pressure decay rates decreased up to 27-fold under vacuum when compared to ambient pressure, as shown in Figure 2. Simulant column diameter was found to exponentially correlate to both regolith column leak rate and steady-state equilibrium pressure delta. Height was found to be linearly related to leak rate –doubling the regolith column height consistently yielded around a 40% reduction in leak rate. Dynamic regolith draining was found to slightly increase leak rate, although to a lower degree than expected. Conclusion: Because of the transition into molecular gas flow through regolith, vacuum testing is required to properly estimate performance. Regolith columns should be designed as narrow as possible to avoid bridging and minimize leak rate, and as tall as is feasible to both further reduce leak rate and to help prevent bubbling, which has been shown to degrade the quality of the regolith seal. Disrupted soil was found to exhibit higher leak rates than pristine, as-poured soil, indicating the need to consider the impact of recovery from depressurization events. Regolith columns appear equally feasible for both dosed and continuous-feed reactors.

ISRU↗

GEOS Constituent Data Assimilation Beyond Aura MLS: Assimilating NASA SAGE III/ISS Profiles of Stratospheric Water Vapor

Ozone and water vapor in the lower stratosphere are important trace gases for atmospheric chemistry and radiative budget. The Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) missions have been crucial in monitoring the stratospheric ozone loss and the subsequent recovery as well as the trends in water vapor linked to surface temperature trends. The SAGE III instrument aboard the International Space Station (ISS) continues the SAGE mission record, with high vertical resolution profiles of ozone and water vapor available since mid 2017. The NASA GEOS Earth system model has the new capability to assimilate multi-constituents from ground and space-based instruments using the GEOS Constituent Data Assimilation System (CoDAS). The recently released MERRA-2 Stratospheric Composition Reanalysis with Aura MLS (M2-SCREAM) assimilates version 4.2 MLS ozone, water vapor and other chemically-reactive species with the NASA GEOS model coupled to a stratospheric-only chemistry mechanism and transport constrained to the MERRA-2 reanalysis. While the number of solar occultation observations a day from SAGE III/ISS is about 1% of the total number of profiles observed globally by MLS, the chemical timescales of ozone and water vapor in the lower stratosphere are long enough that the SAGE III/ISS data may provide a useful constraint on the assimilated product. Using the same GEOS CoDAS configuration as M2-SCREAM, we will present a series of experiments to investigate if water vapor trends are consistent with the assimilation of SAGE observations with and without Aura retrievals, and to determine if the assimilation of SAGE observations produces a steady product for trend analysis, especially as the end of the Aura mission nears. In our experiments, assimilating only SAGE III/ISS water vapor profiles results in water vapor fields more consistent with experiments that assimilate MLS v5; however, in the polar regions SAGE III/ISS observations are not available and the modelled values are unconstrained. We are encouraged by the positive benefit assimilating the less frequent SAGE III/ISS observations has on stratospheric composition. Sensitivity experiments such as these will allow us to assess the added value of SAGE data for continued monitoring of the stratospheric composition for climate and ozone recovery assessments.

K Emma Knowland↗

The Orbital Drift Impact on the Monthly Regional TOA Flux Assuming Constant Meteorology

The NASA Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) gridded Single Scanner Footprint (SSF1deg) product provides TOA SW and LW monthly 1° regional all-sky fluxes, which are used to monitor the Earth’s energy balance. The CERES long-term climate data record relies on Terra and Aqua satellite sun-synchronous orbits that are maintained at 10:30 and 1:30 local equator crossing times (LECT), respectively. The Terra and Aqua satellites are expected to drift outside of their respective LECT during mid 2022. Both Terra and Aqua will drift over several years towards sunrise and sunset, respectively, and eventually will be deorbited. The CERES SSF1deg product monthly regional fluxes are based on the well calibrated and stable CERES observed fluxes and are temporally interpolated assuming constant meteorology between measurements to resolve the regional diurnal flux cycle to obtain a daily averaged flux. The drifting orbits may impact the monthly regional TOA flux over regions with systematic diurnal cycles, because the observations will shift in local time. The CERES project would like to determine the maximum Terra and Aqua LECT time shift before the monthly regional fluxes are diurnally impacted and become unreliable for long-term climate monitoring. To determine the impact of the drifting orbits on the SSF1deg monthly regional fluxes,15-minute Geostationary Earth Radiation Budget (GERB) broadband observed fluxes over the Meteosat geostationary satellite domain (±60° in longitude and latitude) are used as proxy CERES observations. The drifting orbit sampling pattern is achieved by simply incrementing the observation time by steps of 15 minutes from the CERES footprint time. For each 15-minute time interval, the CERES observed fluxes are replaced by the GERB observed fluxes. The-15 minute incremented monthly regional fluxes based on constant meteorology are compared to the reference 10:30 and 1:30 LECT fluxes. Regions with systematic diurnal cycles, include morning maritime stratus, where the clouds dissipate during the morning, and land afternoon convection, where clouds increase in the afternoon will impact the regional flux differences. Based on January and July 2010 GERB data, even a 15-minute LECT change caused regional monthly flux differences that would impact long term regional trend analysis. Results will be shown at the conference.

D R Doelling↗

Newly Available Single Field-of-view Sounder Atmospheric Product (SiFSAP) and Its Derivative Product

The Single Field-of-view Sounder Atmospheric product (SiFSAP) has been developed and delivered to NASA GES DISC. The SiFSAP Algorithm Theoretical Basis Documents (ATBD) and users manuals are ready to be released to public. This novel data product supplements other operational products such as AIRS version 7 and the Community Long-term Infrared Microwave Combined Atmospheric Product System (CLIMCAPS) from two main perspectives: 1) improving the spatial resolution of sounder Level-2 data to extend its usage in weather and dynamics focus area; 2) establishing radiance closure between Level-2 data and directly measured Level-1 radiances to facilitate the climate trend analysis. SiFSAP has 3-times higher spatial resolution and 9-times denser data products comparing to current NASA and NOAA operational IR sounder products. SiFSAP is derived using the optimal estimation method based physical retrieval algorithm. The Principal Component-based Radiative Transfer Model (PCRTM) which includes the cloud scattering simulation is used for the forward model so that the solution can fit the spectral radiances under all-sky conditions for individual single field-of-view (SFOV) measurements. A general introduction of the SiFSAP algorithm and corresponding validation work will be presented. Also introduced here is the Climate Fingerprinting Sounder product (ClimFiSP) that is the derivative product of SiFSAP and will be released in the near future. The ClimFiSP algorithm uses pre-constructed fingerprinting relationship to achieve a low-latency Level-3 data production and facilitate the fusion of data of different sounders.

Wan Wu↗

International Space Station Acoustics – A Status Report

It is important to control acoustic noise aboard the International Space Station (ISS) to provide a satisfactory environment for voice communications, alarm audibility, and restful sleep, and to minimize the risk for hearing loss. Acoustic monitoring is an important part of the noise control process on ISS, providing critical data for trend analysis, noise exposure analysis, validation of acoustic analyses and predictions, and to provide strong evidence for ensuring crew health and safety, thus allowing Flight Certification. And since the primary noise sources on ISS include the environmental control and life support system’s air revitalization system (fans and airflow) and active thermal control system (pumps and water flow), acoustic monitoring will indicate changes in hardware noise emissions that may indicate system degradation or performance issues. This paper provides the current acoustic levels in the ISS modules and sleep stations, and is an update to the status presented in 2018. Since this last status report, noise levels have remained consistent, but issues with stalled fan noise and unexplained low frequency spectral peaks have caused some exceedances to requirements. Noise levels in the Russian Segment have either remained consistent or have been reduced slightly, except for the new Multipurpose Laboratory Module, which has some significant noise exceedances.

Christopher S Allen↗

The power of event-driven analytics in Large Scale Data Processing

FeedZai is a software company specialized in creating high-­‐throughput low-­‐latency data processing solutions. FeedZai develops a product called "FeedZai Pulse" for continuous event-­‐driven analytics that makes application development easier for end users. It automatically calculates key performance indicators and baselines, showing how current performance differ from previous history, creating timely business intelligence updated to the second. The tool does predictive analytics and trend analysis, displaying data on real-­‐time web-­‐based graphics. In 2010 FeedZai won the European EBN Smart Entrepreneurship Competition, in the Digital Models category, being considered one of the "top-­‐20 smart companies in Europe". The main objective of this seminar/workshop is to explore the topic for large-­‐scale data processing using Complex Event Processing and, in particular, the possible uses of Pulse in the scope of the data processing needs of CERN. Pulse is available as open-­‐source and can be licensed both for non-­‐commercial and commercial applications. FeedZai is interested in exploring possible synergies with CERN in high-­‐volume low-­‐latency data processing applications. The seminar will be structured in two sessions, the first one being aimed to expose the general scope of FeedZai's activities, and the second focused on Pulse itself: 10:00-11:00 FeedZai and Large Scale Data Processing; Introduction to FeedZai; FeedZai Pulse and Complex Event Processing; Demonstration; Use-Cases and Applications; Conclusion and Q&A. 11:00-11:15 Coffee break 11:15-12:30 FeedZai Pulse Under the Hood; A First FeedZai Pulse Application; PulseQL overview; Defining KPIs and Baselines; Conclusion and Q&A. About the speakers Nuno Sebastião is the CEO of FeedZai. Having worked for many years for the European Space Agency (ESA), he was responsible the overall design and development of Satellite Simulation Infrastructure of the agency. Having left ESA to found FeedZai, Nuno is currently responsible for the whole operations of the company. Nuno holds an M.Eng. in Informatics Engineering for the University of Coimbra, and an MBA from the London Business School. Paulo Marques is the CTO of FeedZai, being responsible for product development. Paulo is an Assistant Professor at the University of Coimbra, in the area of Distributed Data Processing, and an Adjunct Associated Professor at Carnegie Mellon, in the US. In the past Paulo lead a large number of projects for institutions like the ESA, Microsoft Research, SciSys, Siemens, among others, being now fully dedicated to FeedZai. Paulo holds a Ph.D. in Distributed Systems from the University of Coimbra.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

An optimal merging technique for high-resolution precipitation products

Precipitation products are currently available from various sources at higher spatial and temporal resolution than any time in the past. Each of the precipitation products has its strengths and weaknesses in availability, accuracy, resolution, retrieval techniques and quality control. By merging the precipitation data obtained from multiple sources, one can improve its information content by minimizing these issues. However, precipitation data merging poses challenges of scale-mismatch, and accurate error and bias assessment. In this paper we present Optimal Merging of Precipitation (OMP), a new method to merge precipitation data from multiple sources that are of different spatial and temporal resolutions and accuracies. This method is a combination of scale conversion and merging weight optimization, involving performance-tracing based on Bayesian statistics and trend-analysis, which yields merging weights for each precipitation data source. The weights are optimized at multiple scales to facilitate multiscale merging and better precipitation downscaling. Precipitation data used in the experiment include products from the 12-km resolution North American Land Data Assimilation (NLDAS) system, the 8-km resolution CMORPH and the 4-km resolution National Stage-IV QPE. The test cases demonstrate that the OMP method is capable of identifying a better data source and allocating a higher priority for them in the merging procedure, dynamically over the region and time period. This method is also effective in filtering out poor quality data introduced into the merging process.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Validation Study for Crediting Chlorine in Criticality Analyses for US Spent Nuclear Fuel Disposition

Spent nuclear fuel (SNF) management practices in the United States rely on dry storage systems that include both canister- and cask-based systems. The United States Department of Energy Used Fuel Disposition Campaign is examining the feasibility of direct disposal of dual-purpose (storage and transportation) canisters (DPCs) in a geological repository. One of the major technical challenges for direct disposal is the ability to demonstrate the subcriticality of the DPCs loaded with SNF for the repository performance period (e.g., 10,000 years or more) as the DPCs may undergo degradation over time. Specifically, groundwater ingress into the DPC (i.e., flooding) could allow the system to achieve criticality in scenarios where the neutron absorber plates in the DPC basket have degraded. However, as was shown by Banerjee et al., some aqueous species in the groundwater provide noticeable reactivity reduction for these systems. For certain amounts of particular aqueous species (e.g., chlorine, lithium) in the groundwater, subcriticality can be demonstrated even for DPCs with complete degradation of the neutron absorber plates or a degraded fuel basket configuration. It has been demonstrated that chlorine is the leading impurity, as indicated by significant neutron absorption in the water that is available in reasonable quantities for the deep geological repository media under consideration. This paper presents the results of an investigation of the available integral experiments worldwide that could be used to validate DPC disposal criticality evaluations, including credit for chlorine. Due to the small number of applicable critical configurations, validation through traditional trending analysis was not possible. The bias in the eigenvalue of the application systems due only to the chlorine was calculated using TSURFER analysis and found to be on the order of 100 percent mille (1 pcm = 10 -5 k eff ). This study investigated the design of a series of critical configurations with varying amounts of chlorine to address validation gaps. Such integral experiments would support the crediting of the chlorine neutron-absorption properties in groundwater and the demonstration of subcriticality for DPCs in deep geologic repositories with sufficient chlorine availability.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Validation Study for Crediting Chlorine in Criticality Analyses for Spent Nuclear Fuel Disposition

Spent nuclear fuel (SNF) management practices in the United States rely on dry storage systems that include both canister- and cask-based systems. The United States Department of Energy Used Fuel Disposition Campaign is examining the feasibility of direct disposal of dual-purpose (storage and transportation) canisters (DPCs) in a geological repository. One of the major technical challenges for direct disposal is the ability to demonstrate the subcriticality of the DPCs loaded with SNF for the repository performance period (e.g., 10,000 years or more) as the DPCs may undergo degradation over time. Specifically, groundwater ingress into the DPC (i.e., flooding) could allow the system to achieve criticality in scenarios where the neutron absorber plates in the DPC basket have degraded. However, as was shown by Banerjee et al., some aqueous species in the groundwater provide noticeable reactivity reduction for these systems. For certain amounts of particular aqueous species (e.g., chlorine, lithium) in the groundwater, subcriticality can be demonstrated even for DPCs with complete degradation of the neutron absorber plates or a degraded fuel basket configuration. It has been demonstrated that chlorine is the leading impurity, as indicated by significant neutron absorption in the water that is available in reasonable quantities for the deep geological repository media under consideration. This paper presents the results of an investigation of the available integral experiments worldwide that could be used to validate DPC disposal criticality evaluations, including credit for chlorine. Due to the small number of applicable critical configurations, validation through traditional trending analysis was not possible. The bias in the eigenvalue of the application systems due only to the chlorine was calculated using TSURFER analysis and found to be on the order of 100 percent mille (1 pcm = 10 -5 k eff ). This study investigated the design of a series of critical configurations with varying amounts of chlorine to address validation gaps. Such integral experiments would support the crediting of the chlorine neutron-absorption properties in groundwater and the demonstration of subcriticality for DPCs in deep geologic repositories with sufficient chlorine availability.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Upper Subcritical Calculations Based on Correlated Data

The American National Standards Institute and American Nuclear Society standard for Validation of Neutron Transport Methods for Nuclear Criticality Safety Calculations defines the upper subcritical limit (USL) as “a limit on the calculated k-effective value established to ensure that conditions calculated to be subcritical will actually be subcritical.” Often, USL calculations are based on statistical techniques that infer information about a nuclear system of interest from a set of known/well-characterized similar systems. The work in this paper is part of an active area of research to investigate the way traditional trending analysis is used in the nuclear industry, and in particular, the research is assessing the impact of the underlying assumption that the experimental data being analyzed for USL calculations are statistically independent. In contrast, the multiple experiments typically used for USL calculations can be correlated because they are often performed at the same facilities using the same materials and measurement techniques. This paper addresses this issue by providing a set of statistical inference methods to calculate the bias and bias uncertainty based on the underlying assumption that the experimental data are correlated. Methods to quantify these correlations are the subject of a companion paper and will not be discussed here. The newly proposed USL methodology is based on the assumption that the integral experiments selected for use in the establishment of the USL are sufficiently applicable and that experimental correlations are known. Under the assumption of uncorrelated data, the new methods collapse directly to familiar USL equations currently used. We will demonstrate our proposed methods on real data and compare them to calculations of currently used methods such as USLSTATS and NUREG/CR-6698. Lastly, we will also demonstrate the effect experiment correlations can have on USL calculations.

42 ENGINEERING↗