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At least 289 records · Page 16

Attribution of the Australian bushfire risk to anthropogenic climate change

Abstract. Disastrous bushfires during the last months of 2019 and January 2020 affected Australia, raising the question to what extent the risk of these fires was exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change. To answer the question for southeastern Australia, where fires were particularly severe, affecting people and ecosystems, we use a physically based index of fire weather, the Fire Weather Index; long-term observations of heat and drought; and 11 large ensembles of state-of-the-art climate models. We find large trends in the Fire Weather Index in the fifth-generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Atmospheric Reanalysis (ERA5) since 1979 and a smaller but significant increase by at least 30 % in the models. Therefore, we find that climate change has induced a higher weather-induced risk of such an extreme fire season. This trend is mainly driven by the increase of temperature extremes. In agreement with previous analyses we find that heat extremes have become more likely by at least a factor of 2 due to the long-term warming trend. However, current climate models overestimate variability and tend to underestimate the long-term trend in these extremes, so the true change in the likelihood of extreme heat could be larger, suggesting that the attribution of the increased fire weather risk is a conservative estimate. We do not find an attributable trend in either extreme annual drought or the driest month of the fire season, September–February. The observations, however, show a weak drying trend in the annual mean. For the 2019/20 season more than half of the July–December drought was driven by record excursions of the Indian Ocean Dipole and Southern Annular Mode, factors which are included in the analysis here. The study reveals the complexity of the 2019/20 bushfire event, with some but not all drivers showing an imprint of anthropogenic climate change. Finally, the study concludes with a qualitative review of various vulnerability and exposure factors that each play a role, along with the hazard in increasing or decreasing the overall impact of the bushfires.

van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan (ORCID:0000000268989535)↗

Corrections regarding the Lellouch et al. (1989) analysis of Mars atmospheric C-12O and C-13O spectra

Lellouch et al. (1989) obtained atmospheric CO mixing ratios from Martian C-12O and C-13O microwave spectra that were 3-5 times greater than the Kaplan et al. (1969) IR measurememts; they also inferred a factor-of-2 increase in atmospheric CO abundance between September, 1986 and January, 1987. A reanalysis has been conducted of the Lellouch material, and more detailed treatment of the radiative transfer analysis indicates that its observations are consistent with the Kaplan CO volume mixing ratio determination. It is also ascertained that the Lellouch atmospheric temperature profiles are in error, with no evidence being found for the extreme temperature inversions inferred for the lowest 5 km of the Martian atmosphere.

Clancy, R. Todd↗

The Peak Structure and Future Changes of the Relationships Between Extreme Precipitation and Temperature

Theoretical models predict that, in the absence of moisture limitation, extreme precipitation intensity could exponentially increase with temperatures at a rate determined by the Clausius-Clapeyron (C-C) relationship. Climate models project a continuous increase of precipitation extremes for the twenty-first century over most of the globe. However, some station observations suggest a negative scaling of extreme precipitation with very high temperatures, raising doubts about future increase of precipitation extremes. Here we show for the present-day climate over most of the globe,the curve relating daily precipitation extremes with local temperatures has a peak structure, increasing as expected at the low medium range of temperature variations but decreasing at high temperatures. However, this peak-shaped relationship does not imply a potential upper limit for future precipitation extremes. Climate models project both the peak of extreme precipitation and the temperature at which it peaks (T(sub peak)) will increase with warming; the two increases generally conform to the C-C scaling rate in mid- and high-latitudes,and to a super C-C scaling in most of the tropics. Because projected increases of local mean temperature (T(sub mean)) far exceed projected increases of T(sub peak) over land, the conventional approach of relating extreme precipitation to T(sub mean) produces a misleading sub-C-C scaling rate.

Clausius–Clapeyron↗

X-Aerogels for Structural Components and High Temperature Applications

Future NASA missions and space explorations rely on the use of materials that are strong ultra lightweight and able to withstand extreme temperatures. Aerogels are low density (0.01-0.5 g/cu cm) high porosity materials that contain a glass like structure formed through standard sol-gel chemistry. As a result of these structural properties, aerogels are excellent thermal insulators and are able to withstand temperatures in excess of l,000 C. The open structure of aerogels, however, renders these materials extremely fragile (fracturing at stress forces less than 0.5 N/sq cm). The goal of NASA Glenn Research Center is to increase the strength of these materials by templating polymers and metals onto the surface of an aerogel network facilitating the use of this material for practical applications such as structural components of space vehicles used in exploration. The work this past year focused on two areas; (1) the research and development of new templated aerogels materials and (2) process development for future manufacturing of structural components. Research and development occurred on the production and characterization of new templating materials onto the standard silica aerogel. Materials examined included polymers such as polyimides, fluorinated isocyanates and epoxies, and, metals such as silver, gold and platinum. The final properties indicated that the density of the material formed using an isocyanate is around 0.50 g/cc with a strength greater than that of steel and has low thermal conductivity. The process used to construct these materials is extremely time consuming and labor intensive. One aspect of the project involved investigating the feasibility of shortening the process time by preparing the aerogels in the templating solvent. Traditionally the polymerization used THF as the solvent and after several washes to remove any residual monomers and water, the solvent around the aerogels was changed to acetonitrile for the templating step. This process took a couple of days. It was experimentally determined that the polymerization reaction could be done in acetonitrile instead of THF with no detrimental effects to the properties of the resulting aerogel. Other changes in the time needed to crosslink the gels in the isocyanate solution as well as changes to the subsequent washing procedure could also shorten the processing time with no effect on the properties. Processing methods were also developed that allowed a variety of shapes as well as sizes of these materials to be formed.

Source record↗

Initial Investigation of Cryogenic Wind Tunnel Model Filler Materials

Filler materials are used for surface flaws, instrumentation grooves, and fastener holes in wind tunnel models. More stringent surface quality requirements and the more demanding test environment encountered by cryogenic wind tunnels eliminate filler materials such as polyester resins, plaster, and waxes used on conventional wind tunnel models. To provide a material data base for cryogenic models, various filler materials are investigated. Surface quality requirements and test temperature extremes require matching of coefficients of thermal expansion or interfacing materials. Microstrain versus temperature curves are generated for several candidate filler materials for comparison with cryogenically acceptable materials. Matches have been achieved for aluminum alloys and austenitic steels. Simulated model surfaces are filled with candidate filler materials to determine finishing characteristics, adhesion and stability when subjected to cryogenic cycling. Filler material systems are identified which meet requirements for usage with aluminum model components.

Firth, G. C.↗

Evaluation of Fast Switching Diode 1N4448 Over a Wide Temperature Range

Electronic parts used in the design of power systems geared for space applications are often exposed to extreme temperatures and thermal cycling. Limited data exist on the performance and reliability of commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) electronic parts at temperatures beyond the manufacturers specified operating temperature range. This report summarizes preliminary results obtained on the evaluation of automotive-grade, fast switching diodes over a wide temperature range and thermal cycling. The investigations were carried out to establish a baseline on functionality of these diodes and to determine suitability for use outside their recommended temperature limits.

Thermal Cycling↗

Ultra-wide bandgap β-Ga 2 O 3 films: Optical, phonon, and temperature response properties

Optical and phonon interactions of Ga 2 O 3 thin films with nanocrystalline morphology were studied at extreme temperatures. The films were grown using a sputtering technique and analyzed via temperature response transmission, Raman scattering, and high-resolution deep-UV photoluminescence (PL). Raman modes indicated that the structure corresponds to the β-phase. The optical-gap at the range of 77–620 K exhibited a redshift of ~200 meV, with a temperature coefficient of ~0.4 meV/K. The optical-gap at room-temperature is 4.85 eV. The electron–phonon interaction model at that temperature range pointed to a low energy phonon, ~31 meV, that is involved in the thermal properties of the optical-gap. Detailed Urbach energy analysis indicated that defects are the dominant mechanism controlling the band-edge characteristics even at an elevated temperature regime where phonon dominance is usually expected. Defects are attributed to the disordered forms of graphite that were detected via Raman scattering and to the granular morphology of the film. A deep-UV laser with an above bandgap exaction line of 5.1 eV was employed to map the PL of the films. The highly resolved spectra, even at room-temperature, show a strong emission of ~3.56 eV attributed to self-trapped holes (STHs). The STH is discussed and modeled in terms of the self-trapped exciton. Moreover, a very distinct but low-intensity emission was found at 4.85 eV that agrees with the value of the optical-gap and is attributed to bandgap recombination. The intensity ratio between the STH and that of the bandgap was found to be 6:1.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Thermal / structural analysis of the HB 650 thermal shield

Fermilab’s PIP-II project’s superconducting linear accelerator will drive the next generation of particle accelerators through a revolution in beam intensity. Key to beam intensification are the high efficiencies of niobium-tin superconducting radiofrequency (SRF) cavities operating at cryogenic temperatures near 5 Kelvin. A multifaceted approach is employed to achieve and maintain the extreme temperature. Vacuum provides the first barrier to thermal convection. Physical thermal intercept zones further isolate the exterior shell vacuum vessel at 300 Kelvin from the supercooled beamline. The first thermal intercept lies just inside the exterior vacuum vessel forming the 40 Kelvin zone. This 40K thermal shield is the focus of this investigation. In preparation for operation, the thermal shield is cooled from 300K to 40K in a slow process over 2-1/2 days. The factors limiting the cooling rate are a high thermal gradient which produces thermal strain and high mechanical stress. D ecreasing the time required to reach operational temperatures is the desired research goal. Physical testing data and finite element method (FEM) computer models from the Single Spoke Resonator – 1 (SSR1) and Linac Coherent Light Source (LCLS-II) cryomodules will be evaluated to determine needed design changes. The thermal shield design for the High Beta 650 MHz (HB650) will be modified and analyzed using FEM computer models to determine maximum cooling rate with a target of 50 thermal cycles of life. Maximum allowable stress will be determined through low cycle fatigue calculations.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

AOI [1]: Passive Wireless Sensor Systems Fabricated by Direct-Writing for Temperature and Health Monitoring of Energy Systems in Harsh-Environments (Final Report)

Researchers at West Virginia University (WVU) propose to demonstrate a wireless, high-temperature sensor system for monitoring the temperature and health of energy-system components. The active sensor and electronics for wireless communication will be composed entirely of an electroceramic materials (conductive ceramics) which are capable of withstanding the harsh-environments required for fossil energy-based technologies. This work will focus primarily on the fabrication and testing of temperature (thermocouples and thermistors) and health (strain/stress and crack propagation sensors) that function at extreme temperatures (up to 700-1700ºC). The electronics will accompany the high-temperature sensor, which will include a passive wireless communication circuit that allows the transmission of the data based on the LCR resonance principle to a near-by reader antenna. This passive transmission of data will reduce the need for interconnect wires near the active, and possibly rotating, energy-system component. The research will include process development to permit the 2D/3D direct-writing of the entire sensor and communication circuit onto the energy-system component. The direct-writing will be facilitated by using silicon-based polymer-derived precursors to form the high-temperature, stable electroceramic compositions. In addition, methods for direct-writing the circuit onto a fugitive carrier substrate will be completed, which will permit a “peel-and-stick”-like transfer of the sensor circuit to the energy-system component. This feature will allow the economical and precise placement of the sensor circuit onto components of various shapes and locations, without altering the geometry and active features of the manufactured component, or the removal (or decommissioning) of the component for installation. The proposed work will be directed at the following areas: 1) Investigation of phase formation, sintering/grain growth, and electrical properties of polymer-derived electroceramic composites; 2) Definition of processes to direct-write through ink-jet and robo-casting the polymer-derived electroceramic composites onto oxide and polymer surfaces; 3) Development of methods to form monolithic "peel-and-stick" preforms that will efficiently transfer the sensor circuit to ceramic surfaces after thermal treatment; 4) Design of passive wireless LCR circuits and receiver (reader) antennas for communication and testing at high temperatures; 5) Investigation of the passive wireless sensor system developed (and method of transferring sensor system) for temperature and stress/strain measurements on a SOFC repeat unit and a singular gas turbine blade prototype as example applications.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Lab’s Z-machine efforts advance stockpile stewardship in multi-org collaboration

For the past 15 years, Los Alamos (LANL) employees have played a major role in plutonium experiments using the Z-machine — a device at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) that uses high magnetic fields, electrical currents, and X-rays to help scientists understand how materials behave under extreme temperatures and pressures. High-energy density physics, or the study of matter under extreme conditions, is a key component of certifying the nation’s nuclear weapons stockpile.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Determining Solar-Cell Operating Temperature

Laboratory test measures effect of windspeed and wind directon. Series of tests shows solar-photovoltaic cell temperature extremely sensitive to windspeed, moderately sensitive to wind direction, and rather insensitive to ambient temperature.

Griffith, J. S.↗

Thermal Contributions to the Degradation of Ground Laboratory and Space Irradiated Teflon

The aluminized Teflon fluorinated ethylene propylene outer most layer of the multilayer insulation blankets on the Hubble Space Telescope has become embrittled resulting in severe on-orbit cracking. During the second servicing mission, a piece of aluminized fluorinated ethylene propylene was retrieved that had curled, exposing the back-surface aluminum to space. This extremely embrittled piece reached 200 C on-orbit, 150 C higher than the nominal temperature extreme. Therefore, experiments have been conducted to determine the effect of heating on the degradation of fluorinated ethylene propylene that has been irradiated in a ground laboratory facility or in space on Hubble Space Telescope. Samples of pristine, x-ray irradiated and Hubble Space Telescope retrieved fluorinated ethylene propylene were heat treated from 50 to 200 C at 25 C intervals in a high vacuum facility and tensile tested. Density measurements were also obtained. Results indicate that heating does not embrittle non-irradiated Teflon. However, there is a significant dependence of the embrittlement of irradiated Teflon on heating temperature, with near complete loss of elongation at 100 C and higher. Rate of degradation changes, which were consistent with the glass transition temperature for fluorinated ethylene propylene, were present in the data. The results support chain scission as the primary mechanism of degradation of fluorinated ethylene propylene on Hubble Space Telescope, and indicate the significance of the on-orbit temperature of fluorinated ethylene propylene with respect to its degradation in the space environment.

deGroh, Kim K.↗

Characterization and novel application of power over fiber for electronics in a harsh environment

Power-over-Fiber (PoF) technology has been used extensively in settings where high voltages require isolation from ground. In a novel application of PoF, power is provided to photon detector modules located on a surface at ∼ 300 kV with respect to ground in the planned DUNE experiment. In cryogenic environments, PoF offers a reliable means of power transmission, leveraging optical fibers to transfer optical power. PoF technology excels in maintaining low noise levels when delivering power to sensitive electronic systems operating in extreme temperatures and high voltage environments. This paper presents the R&D effort of PoF in extreme conditions and underscores its capacity to revolutionize power delivery and management in critical applications, offering a dependable solution with low noise, optimal efficiency (∼ 51%), and superior isolation.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Understanding Electric Vehicle Range and Charging Needs: Interactions Between Ambient Temperature, Commute Patterns, and State-of-Charge Usage

Electric vehicle (EV) performance can vary substantially under real-world operating conditions, particularly due to ambient temperature effects on energy consumption, battery behavior, and thermal management requirements. This study quantifies how weather conditions, daily driving patterns, and State-of-Charge (SOC) usage strategies jointly influence EV driving range, charging frequency, and overall energy efficiency. A detailed and experimentally validated Autonomie vehicle model is developed, integrating a powertrain, a mono-zonal cabin model, and a battery electro-thermal model. Three battery sizes (200-, 300-, and 400-mile homologated ranges) are assessed across five commute profiles (20–200 miles) and six ambient temperatures (−18 °C to 50 °C), including scenarios with and without preconditioning. Results show that extreme temperatures could significantly decrease the maximum achievable range by up to 55% in cold conditions (−18 °C) and 40% in hot conditions (50 °C), relative to moderate conditions. Larger battery packs retain a greater fraction of their nominal range under thermal stress, while smaller packs experience sharper relative penalties due to the higher contribution of thermal loads to total energy demand. The analysis further demonstrates that limiting operation to partial SOC windows (e.g., 80–20%), a common real-world practice, significantly reduces achievable range and increases charging frequency, particularly in cold weather. Thermal preconditioning while plugged in is shown to mitigate these effects for short trips, reducing energy consumption by up to 31% in hot conditions and 7% in cold conditions. The findings demonstrate how climate, SOC usage behavior, and thermal management jointly shape the practical driving capability of EVs, highlighting the importance of efficient thermal management and realistic user charging strategies for ensuring reliable EV operation across diverse climatic scenarios.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Optical fibers in the adverse space environment - The Space Station

On the NASA Space Station, the requirement for high speed data transfer between the exterior experimental bays and the interior research facilities has generated the need for fiberoptics. The adverse vacuum effects in space, temperature extremes, and natural space radiation place extreme conditions on optical fiber interconnects. This report addresses the adverse space environmental effects of temperature and radiation on optical fibers.

Greenwell, Roger A.↗

Mid-IR interferometric nulling for TPF

By the middle of 2006, the Interferometry Technology development program for NASA’s Terrestrial Planet Finder (TPF) Mission has the goal of demonstrating deep and stable interferometric nulling of broadband Mid-IR thermal radiation under conditions that are traceable to the expected on-orbit conditions. Specifically, the task is to demonstrate null levels of 10 to the negative 6 power, with a 50% BW centered at 10 um, with null stabilities of 10 to the negative 7 power all at cryogenic temperatures for observational periods of a couple of hours. The Achromatic Nulling activity at JPL addresses this concern in two testbeds: the warm nulling testbed and the cryonulling testbed. The warm nulling testbed will demonstrate the physics of nulling broadband thermal sources in an environment that is conducive to efficient research. We’ll explore nulling techniques, optical-mechanical alignment methods, motion control, and path-length metrology for a single beam interferometer, as well as preliminary planet detection techniques. Ultimate nulling capabilities under conditions that are more flight-like will be demonstrated in cryogenic nulling testbed. Knowledge gained from operation at room temperature will be applied to the cryongenic experiment where we face the additional challenges of extreme temperatures, cryongenic actuators, component survivability and fluxes that are within an order of magnitude of expected flux levels on orbit. Concurrently, we will develop a low flux mid-IR camera that will allow us to measure the nulls at these faint photon fluxes. This talk will review this development activity and will include recent nulling experimental results and plans for future work.

Vasisht, Gautam↗

A Diversity of Temperature and Pressure Conditions Recorded by Zircon within Suevite from Ries Crater, Germany

The temperature and pressure conditions experienced by rocks during an impact event can be constrained using petrologic and microstructural analysis and is crucial to providing ground truth to the impact cratering process. Suevite is a polymict, impact melt-bearing breccia, specific to Ries crater in Germany. There are competing models for suevite formation and emplacement, such as clastic flows pushed out of the crater rim or ejecta plume fallback. Knowledge of the temperature and pressure pathways recorded by grains within the suevite can help distinguish between these and other models. The accessory phase zircon (ZrSiO4) and its high-pressure polymorph reidite are particularly useful in such circumstances as they are highly refractory minerals that can record the high-temperature and/or high-pressure conditions of an impact event. Here we present evidence for a wide array of temperature and pressure conditions recorded in zircon grains within a single thin section of suevite. Zircons in this study range from unshocked to highly shocked (>53 GPa), and record temperatures more than 1673 °C. These findings confirm previous studies concluding that suevites contain material exposed to very diverse pressure and temperature conditions during initial shock compression and excavation but do not, as a whole, experience extreme temperatures (>1673 °C) or pressures (>30 GPa).

mineralogy↗

A high-performance lung-inspired ceramic 3D-printed heat exchanger for high-temperature energy-efficient systems

The thermal-to-electric conversion efficiency of next-generation supercritical carbon dioxide and concentrated solar power plants is significantly augmented by operating at temperatures exceeding 1000 °C if durable, compact, high-temperature heat exchangers (HXs) are developed. Whereas metal 3D-printed HXs fail to operate under extreme temperature conditions, ceramic 3D-printed HXs are deemed promising candidates for high-temperature, highly oxidizing environments. Ceramic 3D-printed HXs, however, exhibit a high gas permeability issue through hot and cold separating walls due to an excessive non-volatile photopolymer content utilized. Here, in this work, a novel leak-free lung-inspired ceramic 3D-printed HX employing a highly complex heat transfer topology is introduced for high-temperature energy-efficient systems. The high permeability issue of ceramic 3D-printed HXs is fully eliminated through a uniform zinc-based coating. It was determined that the effective thermal conductivity of the sintered ceramic heat exchangers is affected by the coated layer. The high-temperature thermal and hydraulic characteristics of the lung-inspired ceramic 3D-printed HX are comprehensively examined and compared against a millichannel 3D-printed HX module. Experimental results indicated that the lung-inspired 3D-printed ceramic HX significantly outperforms its millichannel counterpart. The lung-inspired HX shows a volume-based power density of 8.2 MW/m3 at a hot-side inlet air temperature of 700°C, a 71 % improvement compared with that of the millichannel HX. More importantly, the higher thermal duty of the lung-inspired 3D-printed HX is realized at a lower normalized pressure drop penalty of 510 Pa/W, 22 % lower than that of the millichannel ceramic HX. This study accelerates the advancement of high-performance ceramic 3D-printed HXs with complex topologies for high-temperature energy-efficient systems and/or corrosive environments.

42 ENGINEERING↗