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At least 289 records · Page 16

Techno-Economic Analysis of Solid Oxide Fuel Cell-Gas Turbine Hybrid Systems for Stationary Power Applications Using Renewable Hydrogen

Solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC)–gas turbine (GT) hybrid systems can produce power at high electrical efficiencies while emitting virtually zero criteria pollutants (e.g., ozone, carbon monoxide, oxides of nitrogen and sulfur, and particulate matters). This study presents new insights into renewable hydrogen (RH 2 )-powered SOFC–GT hybrid systems with respect to their system configuration and techno-economic analysis motivated by the need for clean on-demand power. First, three system configurations are thermodynamically assessed: (I) a reference case with no SOFC off-gas recirculation, (II) a case with cathode off-gas recirculation, and (III) a case with anode off-gas recirculation. While these configurations have been studied in isolation, here we provide a detailed performance comparison. Moreover, a techno-economic analysis is conducted to study the economic competitiveness of RH 2 -fueled hybrid systems and the economies of scale by offering a comparison to natural gas (NG)-fueled systems. Results show that the case with anode off-gas recirculation, with 68.50%-lower heating value (LHV) at a 10 MW scale, has the highest efficiency among the studied scenarios. When moving from 10 MW to 50 MW, the efficiency increases to 70.22%-LHV. These high efficiency values make SOFC–GT hybrid systems highly attractive in the context of a circular economy as they outcompete most other power generation technologies. The cost-of-electricity (COE) is reduced by about 10% when moving from 10 MW to 50 MW, from USD 1976/kW to USD 1668/kW, respectively. Renewable H 2 is expected to be economically competitive with NG by 2030, when the U.S. Department of Energy’s target of USD 1/kg RH 2 is reached.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Electrochemical techniques and mechanisms for the corrosion of metals and alloys in sub- and supercritical aqueous systems

Corrosion has become a decisive factor hindering supercritical water technologies' long-cycle, safe implementation. Electrochemical experiments performed in supercritical aqueous systems can capture essential, real-time information about the micro/nanoscale processes of corrosion and their kinetics. As a starting point, this paper first summarizes the critical chemical properties of supercritical aqueous systems and analyzes their role in determining the duality of corrosion mechanisms (whether electrochemical or chemical micro-processes predominate). Next, it reviews the available electrochemical techniques such as pH sensors, electrochemical noise measurements, and related applications for quantitatively elaborating the corrosion issues in supercritical aqueous systems. With thick and heavy colors, a series of mechanistic models, such as the mixed potential model and the coupled environment models were introduced from the fundamental theories to the related applications, which have been applied widely in ambient and subcritical aqueous systems and exhibit great values and potential to be employed in high-density supercritical water environments. The passivity, depassivation, and passivity breakdown of metals and alloys in terms of the Point Defect Model (PDM) were also successfully implemented and discussed. Further, the newly built SCW_PDM describes the film growth kinetics at the atomic level of metals and alloys in supercritical water and is being developed to quantitatively analyze and resolve a series of corrosion issues such as the passivity breakdown and the stress corrosion cracking that occur in supercritical aqueous systems. This review is helpful by promoting the development of the electrochemical corrosion theory in supercritical aqueous systems and by identifying corrosion prevention and control methods for the safe implementation of relevant supercritical water technologies.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A semi–automatic analytical methodology for characterizing the energy consumption of MRI systems using load duration curves

Background and purpose: Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scanners are a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions from the healthcare sector, and efforts to improve energy efficiency and reduce energy consumption rely on quantification of the characteristics of energy consumption. The purpose of this work was to develop a semi-automatic analytical methodology for the characterization of the energy consumption of MRI systems using only the load duration curve (LDC). LDCs are a fundamental tool used across various fields to analyze and understand the behavior of loads over time. Methods: An electric current transformer sensor and data logger were installed on two 3T MRI scanners from two vendors, termed M1 (outpatient scanner) and M2 (inpatient/emergency scanner). Data was collected for 1 month (7/11/2023 to 8/11/2023). Active power was calculated, assuming a balanced three-phase system, using the average current measured across all three phases, a 480 V reference voltage for both machines, and vendor-provided power factors. An LDC was constructed for each system by sorting the active power values in descending order and computing the cumulative time (in units of percentage) for each data point. The first derivative of the LDC was then computed (LDC’), smoothed by convolution with a window function (sLDC’), and used to detect transitions between different system modes including (in descending power levels): scan, prepared-to-scan, idle, low-power, and off. The final, segmented LDC was used to measure time (% total time), total energy (kWh), and mean power (kW) for each system mode on both scanners. The method was validated by comparing mean power values, computed using the segmented 1-month LDC, for each nonproductive system mode (i.e., prepared-to-scan, idle, lower-power, and off) against power levels measured after a deliberate system shutdown was performed for each scanner (1 day worth of data). Results: The validation revealed differences in mean power values <1.4% for all nonproductive modes and both scanners. In the scan system mode, the mean power values ranged from 29.8 to 37.2 kW and the total energy consumed for 1 month ranged from 11 106 to 14 466 kWh depending on the scanner. Over the course of 1 month, the portion of time the scanners were in nonproductive modes ranged from 76% to 80% across scanners and the nonproductive energy consumption ranged from 8010 to 6722 kWh depending on the scanner. The M1 (outpatient) scanner consumed 99.9 and 183.9 kWh/day in idle mode for weekdays and weekends, respectively, because the scanner spent 23% more time proportionally in idle mode on the weekends. Conclusions: A semi-automatic method for quantifying energy consumption characteristics of MRI scanners was introduced and validated. This method is relatively simple to implement as it requires only power data from the scanners and avoids the technical challenges associated with extracting and processing scanner log files. Finally, the methodology enables quantitative evaluation of the power, time, and energy characteristics of MRI scanners in scan and nonproductive system modes, providing baseline data and the capability of identifying potential opportunities for enhancing the energy efficiency of MRI scanners.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Modeling Buried Object Brightness and Visibility for Ground Penetrating Radar

Comparing the observed brightness of various buried objects is a straightforward way to characterize the performance of a ground penetrating radar (GPR) system. However, a limitation arises. A simple comparison of buried object brightness values does not disentangle the effects of the GPR system itself from the system's operating environment and the objects being observed. Therefore, with brightness values exhibiting an unknown synthesis of systemic, environmental, and object factors, GPR system analysis becomes a convoluted affair. In this work, we use an experimentally collected dataset of over 25,000 object observations from five different multistatic radar arrays to develop models of buried object brightness and control for these various effects. Additionally, our modeling efforts provide a means for quantifying the relative brightness of GPR systems, the objects they detect, and the physical properties of those objects that influence observed brightness. To evaluate the models' performance on new object observations, we repeatedly simulate fitting them to half the dataset and predicting the observed brightness values of the unseen half. In addition, we introduce a method for estimating the probability that individual observations constitute a visible object, which aids in failure analysis, performance characterization, and dataset cleaning.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Visible-light Phase Curves from the Second Year of the TESS Primary Mission

We carried out a systematic study of full-orbit phase curves for known transiting systems in the northern ecliptic sky that were observed during Year 2 of the TESS primary mission. We applied the same methodology for target selection, data processing, and light-curve fitting as we did in our Year 1 study. Out of the 15 transiting systems selected for analysis, seven—HAT-P-7, KELT-1, KELT-9, KELT-16, KELT-20, Kepler-13A, and WASP-12—show statistically significant secondary eclipses and day–night atmospheric brightness modulations. Small eastward dayside hot-spot offsets were measured for KELT-9b and WASP-12b. KELT-1, Kepler-13A, and WASP-12 show additional phase-curve variability attributed to the tidal distortion of the host star; the amplitudes of these signals are consistent with theoretical predictions. We combined occultation measurements from TESS and Spitzer to compute dayside brightness temperatures, TESS-band geometric albedos, Bond albedos, and phase integrals for several systems. The new albedo values solidify the previously reported trend between dayside temperature and geometric albedo for planets with 1500 K < T {sub day} < 3000 K. For Kepler-13Ab, we carried out an atmospheric retrieval of the full secondary eclipse spectrum, which revealed a noninverted temperature–pressure profile, significant H{sub 2}O and K absorption in the near-infrared, evidence for strong optical atmospheric opacity due to sodium, and a confirmation of the high geometric albedo inferred from our simpler analysis. We explore the implications of the phase integrals (ratios of Bond to geometric albedos) for understanding exoplanet clouds. We also report updated transit ephemerides for all of the systems studied in this work.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Frequency Recovery in Power Grids Using High-Performance Computing

Maintaining electric power system stability is paramount, especially in extreme contingencies involving unexpected outages of multiple generators or transmission lines that are typical during severe weather events. Such outages often lead to large supply-demand mismatches followed by subsequent system frequency deviations from their nominal value. The extent of frequency deviations is an important metric of system resilience, and its timely mitigation is a central goal of power system operation and control. This paper develops a novel nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC) method to minimize frequency deviations when the grid is affected by an unforeseen loss of multiple components. Our method is based on a novel multi-period alternating current optimal power flow (ACOPF) formulation that accurately models both nonlinear electric power flow physics and the primary and secondary frequency response of generator control mechanisms. We develop a distributed parallel Julia package for solving the large-scale nonlinear optimization problems that result from our NMPC method and thereby address realistic test instances on existing high-performance computing architectures. Our method demonstrates superior performance in terms of frequency recovery over existing industry practices, where generator levels are set based on the solution of single-period classical ACOPF models.

nonlinear model predictive control↗

Identifying Energy Inefficiencies in Compressed Air Systems: A Systematic Approach with the Compressed Air Scoping Tool

This paper highlights the importance of improving compressed air systems, outlines the tool’s development and features, and underscores its value as a nonbiased resource for system evaluation and optimization. Additionally, the paper presents a case study based on a food manufacturing facility to demonstrate the practical application of the tool. Furthermore, the paper discusses potential future opportunities for enhancing the CA Scoping Tool.

compressed air benchmarking↗

Techno-Economic Assessment of Destabilized Li Hydride Systems for High Temperature Thermal Energy Storage

A comprehensive techno-economic analysis of destabilized Li hydrides, used as thermal energy storage systems in concentrating solar power plants, is presented and discussed. Two systems, operating at temperatures on the order of 550–650 °C, are selected as thermal energy storage units for steam power plants, namely the Si-destabilized Li hydride (LiSi) and the Al-destabilized Li hydride (LiAl). Two thermal energy storage systems, operating at temperatures on the order of 700–750 °C, are selected for integration in supercritical CO2 power plants, namely the Si-destabilized Li hydride (LiSi) and the Sn-destabilized Li hydride (LiSn). Each storage system demonstrates excellent volumetric capacity, achieving values between 100 and 250 kWhth/m3. The LiSi-based thermal energy storage systems can be integrated with steam and supercritical CO2 plants at a specific cost between 107 US$/kWhth and 109 US$/kWhth, with potential to achieve costs on the order of 74 US$/kWhth under enhanced configurations and scenarios. The LiAl-based storage system has the highest potential for large scale applications. The specific cost of the LiAl system, integrated in solar steam power plants, is equal to approximately 74 US$/kWhth, with potential to reach values on the order of 51 US$/kWhth under enhanced performance configurations and scenarios.

Corgnale, Claudio↗

Connected Loads – Grid Connected Appliances: Deployment IoT Solution for Fault Detection and Diagnostics

As one of the most energy-intensive end-uses in the commercial buildings sector, supermarkets consume around 50 kWh/ft 2 ( or 537.6 kWh/m 2 ) of electricity annually, or more than 2 million kWh of electricity per year for a typical store. The biggest consumer of energy in a supermarket is its refrigeration system, which accounts for 40–60% of its total electricity usage and is equivalent to about 2–3% of the total energy consumed by commercial buildings in United States, or around 0.5 quadrillion Btu (or 0.53 quadrillion KJ). Also, the supermarket refrigeration system is one of the biggest consumers of refrigerants. Current supermarket refrigeration systems rely on high global warming potential hydrofluorocarbon refrigerants. Reducing refrigerant usage or using environment friendly alternatives can result in significant climate benefits. Transcritical CO2 refrigeration systems have attracted more attention in recent years because of their zero-carbon emission advantages compared with traditional refrigerants. These systems are widely used in commercial buildings such as supermarkets. The refrigeration system can also be adapted to handle flexible building loads and be integrated into grid response transactive control to balance the supply and demand of the electric grid. Even minor improvements in the efficiency and operational reliability of supermarket refrigeration systems can create significant value in terms of saving energy, improving food quality, protecting the environment, reducing carbon footprint, and enhancing electric grid resilience. For decarbonization, the new administration has set a target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 50– 52% by 2030 and targeting a carbon-neutral economy by 2050. For electrification, the goal is to achieve 100% clean electricity by 2035. Such decarbonization and electrification in the building sector require that energy consumption in buildings be reduced significantly. Therefore, the building sector must continuously adopt new technologies to achieve its energy and carbon emission goals. One of the most fundamental technologies is the Internet of Things (IoT). IoT has proven to be an effective solution for the building domain, including building information/energy modeling, smart buildings, etc. Although much progress has been made in the development of IoT-based building energy systems, there is still a lack of reliable, scalable, and affordable IoT-based automated fault and degradation diagnostics (AFDDs) solutions. Such solutions would enable deployment of advanced algorithms into real systems to archive the projected energy benefits. This study reviews existing IoT solutions developed for building energy– related application and developed a simple but effective AFDD IoT deployment solution, including developing a suitable IoT architecture and conducting easy and scalable deployment by leveraging a common cloud-based IoT service.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Data-driven Minimum Entropy Control for Stochastic Nonlinear Systems using the Cumulant-Generating Function

Here, we present a novel minimum entropy control algorithm for a class of stochastic nonlinear systems subjected to non-Gaussian noises. The entropy control can be considered as an optimization problem for the system randomness attenuation, but the mean value has to be considered separately. To overcome this disadvantage, a new representation of the system stochastic properties was given using the cumulant-generating function based on the moment-generating function, in which the mean value and the entropy was reflected by the shape of the cumulant-generating function. Based on the samples of the system output and control input, a time-variant linear model was identified, and the minimum entropy optimization was transformed to system stabilization. Then, an optimal control strategy was developed to achieve the randomness attenuation, and the boundedness of the controlled system output was analyzed. The effectiveness of the presented control algorithm was demonstrated by a numerical example. In this paper, a data-driven minimum entropy design is presented without pre-knowledge of the system model; entropy optimization is achieved by the system stabilization approach in which the stochastic distribution control and minimum entropy are unified using the same identified structure; and a potential framework is obtained since all the existing system stabilization methods can be adopted to achieve the minimum entropy objective.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Deployment of Dynamic Neural Network Optimization to Minimize Heat Rate During Ramping for Coal Power Plants (Final Technical Report)

Much success was achieved throughout the course of this project. A successful implementation of Dynamic Neural Network Optimization (D-NNO) was coupled with Adaptive Predictive Controls (APC) and a novel hardware installation comprised of an advanced sensor network (ASN) measuring mass-weighted averages of flue gas constituents above the horizontal superheater of a coal-fired utility boiler. From 2019 through 2023 (including an extension due to COVID delays), the team was able to prototype, evaluate, deploy, iterate, and ultimately finalize an advanced closed-loop control D-NNO system which demonstrated the ability to: •improve unit efficiency ~2.0% relative to unoptimized operation (represented as total fuel fired per MWh generated) •improve unit NOx emission rates 10%+ beyond static optimization baselines •improve unit temperature stability as much as 58% and on average 12% •improve operating load stability as much as 35% The culmination of this project has generated an advanced methodology of deploying specially designed recurrent neural networks (long short-term memory, gated recurrent unit, encoder-decoder networks, transformers, etc.), customized trajectory planning and closed-loop optimization modules capable of adapting to live electric grid responses and demands, self-tuning and adaptive expert controls constantly adjusting prediction parameters to real-time unit behavior, and a hardware/software package able to reliably calculate net unit heat rate (NUHR) in real-time using flue gas constituents, machine learning, and known combustion relationships. Through this real-time NUHR value, immediate feedback on system adjustments relative to operating efficiency was available, allowing for rapid improvements to system performance. In addition to development and deployment of the advanced D-NNO system, the approach methodology has been readily commercialized through the project platform Griffin Open Systems, LLC, the D-NNO software platform host. Similar methodologies to those developed by this project have already been deployed at 5 other units across the United States, with another 6 implementations scheduled, and more expected. Over the course of the project, multiple academic papers were submitted and accepted for publication within esteemed academic journals, and PhD students were trained and graduated, as well as undergraduate students becoming involved and participating to project objectives.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Wind power costs driven by innovation and experience with further reductions on the horizon

The costs of wind power have declined to levels on par with or below those of conventional sources in many parts of the world. Wind power has become one of the fastest-growing sources of new electricity generation. We take stock of wind power cost evolution over the past 20 years, review methodologies commonly used for cost assessment, discuss the potential for continued cost reduction, and identify anticipated cost and value drivers. Our scope includes both onshore and offshore wind technologies. We draw from a vast body of literature on these topics to highlight key trends, approaches, and limitations. Furthermore, we discuss strategies for wind power assets to enhance their marginal economic value to the broader power system and consumers. We identify a myriad of factors that are expected to influence the future cost and value of wind power, including siting, project scale, turbine size, operational synergies, commodity prices, advancements in turbine technologies, enhanced management of the wind resource, and novel control technologies that provide value for the electricity grid. Because the common methods for forecasting future costs each have their own strengths and weaknesses, we find the best insights are elicited from a combination of methods. Overall, researchers and analysts anticipate further sizable cost reductions for onshore and offshore wind. Midrange forecasts for levelized cost of energy in 2050 are generally between $20 and $30/MWh for onshore wind and $40 and $60/MWh for offshore wind, a reduction to approximately half of today's levels. Optimistic forecasts anticipate these levels as early as 2030.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

sCO 2 Brayton Energy Conversion Customer Discovery

All energy production systems need efficient energy conversion systems. Current Rankine cycles use water to generate steam at temperatures where efficiency is limited to around 40%. As existing fossil and nuclear power plants are decommissioned due to end of effective life and/or societies’ desire for cleaner generation options, more efficient energy conversion is needed to keep up with increasing electricity demands. Modern energy generation technologies, such as advanced nuclear reactors and concentrated solar, coupled to high efficiency sCO 2 conversion systems provide a solution to efficient, clean energy systems. Leading R&D communities worldwide agree that the successful development of sCO 2 Brayton power cycle technology will eventually bring about large-scale changes to existing multi-billion-dollar global markets and enable power applications not currently possible or economically justifiable. However, all new technologies face challenges in the path to commercialization and the electricity sector is distinctively risk averse. The Sandia sCO 2 Brayton team needs to better understand what the electricity sector needs in terms of new technology risk mitigation, generation efficiency, reliability improvements above current technology, and cost requirements which would make new technology adoption worthwhile. Relying on the R&D community consensus that a sCO 2 power cycle will increase the revenue of the electrical industry, without addressing the electrical industry’s concerns, significantly decreases the potential for adoption at commercial scale. With a clear understanding of the market perspectives on technology adoption, including military, private sector, and utilities customers, the Sandia Brayton Team can resolve industry concerns for smoother development and faster transition to commercialization. An extensive customer discovery process, similar to that executed through the NSF’s I-Corp program, is necessary in order to understand the pain points of the market and articulate the value proposition of Brayton systems in terms that engage decision makers and facilitate commercialization of the technology.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Design Guidelines for Deployable Wind Turbines for Military Operational Energy Applications

This document aims to provide guidance on the design and operation of deployable wind systems that provide maximum value to missions in defense and disaster relief. Common characteristics of these missions are shorter planning and execution time horizons and a global scope of potential locations. Compared to conventional wind turbine applications, defense and disaster response applications place a premium on rapid shipping and installation, short-duration operation (days to months), and quick teardown upon mission completion. Furthermore, defense and disaster response applications are less concerned with cost of energy than conventional wind turbine applications. These factors impart design drivers that depart from the features found in conventional distributed wind turbines, thus necessitating unique design guidance. The supporting information for this guidance comes from available relevant references, technical analyses, and input from industry and military stakeholders. This document is not intended to be a comprehensive, prescriptive design specification. This document is intended to serve as a written record of an ongoing discussion of stakeholders about the best currently available design guidance for deployable wind turbines to help facilitate the effective development and acquisition of technology solutions to support mission success. The document is generally organized to provide high-level, focused guidance in the main body, with more extensive supporting details available in the referenced appendices. Section 2 begins with a brief qualitative description of the design guidelines being considered for the deployable wind turbines. Section 3 provides an overview of the characteristics of the mobile power systems commonly used in U.S. military missions. Section 4 covers current military and industry standards and specifications that are relevant to a deployable wind turbine design. Section 5 presents the deployable turbine design guidelines for the application cases.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Flexibility Options: A Proposed Product for Managing Imbalance Risk

The presence of variable renewable energy resources with uncertain outputs in day-ahead electricity markets results in additional balancing needs in real-time. Addressing those needs cost-effectively and reliably within a competitive market with unbundled products is challenging as both the demand for and the availability of flexibility depends on day-ahead energy schedules. Existing approaches for reserve procurement usually rely either on oversimplified demand curves that do not consider how system conditions that particular day affect the value of flexibility, or on bilateral trading of hedging instruments that are not co-optimized with day-ahead schedules. This article proposes a new product, ‘Flexibility Options', to address these two limitations. The demand for this product is endogenously determined in the day-ahead market and it is met cost-effectively by considering real-time supply curves for product providers, which are co-optimized with the energy supply. As we illustrate with numerical examples and mathematical analysis, the product addresses the hedging needs of participants with imbalances cost-effectively, provides a less intermittent revenue stream for participants with flexible outputs, promotes value-driven pricing of flexibility, and ensures that the system operator is revenue-neutral. This article provides a comprehensive design that can be further tested and applied in large-scale systems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Influence of Mo- and Ga-Supported HZSM-5 Co-Catalyst Configuration in Microwave-Assisted Methane and Ethane Dehydroaromatization

Microwave (MW)-assisted dehydroaromatization (DHA) using an Mo-supported HZSM-5 catalyst (Mo/HZSM-5) enhances the value of natural gas resources by converting stranded or underutilized natural gas into value-added chemicals in modular microwave reactor systems. This approach offers the potential to generate economic value. However, natural gas mixtures often contain multiple components, including ethane (C2H6) and propane (C3H8), which complicate the reaction pathways. Ga-supported HZSM-5 (Ga/HZSM-5) catalysts are generally inactive toward CH4 but exhibit higher activity toward C2H6 and C3H8. Therefore, investigating the combination of Mo/HZSM-5 and Ga/HZSM-5 in various catalyst bed configurations is essential. This study explores different co-catalyst bed configurations and CH4/C2H6 feed compositions to determine the most effective way for enhanced natural gas conversion and benzene production.

cocatalyst bed configuration↗

Spin-orbit-controlled metal–insulator transition in Sr 2 IrO 4

In the context of correlated insulators, where electron–electron interactions (U) drive the localization of charge carriers, the metal–insulator transition is described as either bandwidth- or filling-controlled. Motivated by the challenge of the insulating phase in Sr 2 IrO 4 , a new class of correlated insulators has been proposed, in which spin–orbit coupling (SOC) is believed to renormalize the bandwidth of the half-filled j eff = 1/2 doublet, allowing a modest U to induce a charge-localized phase. Although this framework has been tacitly assumed, a thorough characterization of the ground state has been elusive. Furthermore, direct evidence for the role of SOC in stabilizing the insulating state has not been established, because previous attempts at revealing the role of SOC have been hindered by concurrently occurring changes to the filling. Here, we overcome this challenge by employing multiple substituents that introduce well-defined changes to the signatures of SOC and carrier concentration in the electronic structure, as well as a new methodology that allows us to monitor SOC directly. Specifically, we study Sr 2 Ir 1-x T x O 4 (T = Ru, Rh) by angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy, combined with ab initio and supercell tight-binding calculations. This allows us to distinguish relativistic and filling effects, thereby establishing conclusively the central role of SOC in stabilizing the insulating state of Sr 2 IrO 4 . Most importantly, we estimate the critical value for SOC in this system to be λ c = 0.42 ± 0.01 eV, and provide the first demonstration of a spin–orbit-controlled metal–insulator transition.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Modeling the Functional Forms of Grid Disturbances

This report introduces a functional form that may be used to quantitatively predict the impacts of new grid tools and changing system qualities on the likelihoods, durations, and depths of various grid disturbances. Each disturbance scenario is modeled to have three component stages—avoidance, reactance and recovery, which together parametrically estimate one disturbance’s impacts. The modeled scenario is then placed and replicated within an analysis period to represent the likelihood or frequency of the scenario and its consequent impacts. Whereas analysts have struggled to define and apply metrics for grid resilience, the functional form introduced by this report shares units of measurement with accepted grid-status measures (e.g., numbers of customers currently experiencing a service outage). Furthermore, the integrated and averaged functional form over an analysis period provides a meaningful normalized performance metric (e.g., customer outage minutes per year) that is ultimately independent of the duration of the period of. The approach may be applied similarly regardless of the severity or frequency of the disturbances that are being analyzed. Because metrics can be chosen to be identical in both the hypothetical future and the actual historical past, the historical past eventually becomes the test of the future predictions, at least in a statistical sense. The authors originally developed this approach to facilitate analysis of the effects of transactive energy (TE) systems effects on electric power grid resilience. TE systems invite energy suppliers and consumers to actively collaborate toward the discovery of, and their responses to, the locational value of energy. The findings from this process are often embodied as energy prices, the dynamics of which indicate the locational value of energy and can further represent important grid service needs. While some academic papers claim to quantify the value of a specific TE system design toward grid resilience, the answer, in general, has been elusive. Not only do multiple and conflicting definitions of resilience and reliability exist, but countless TE systems are being invented. We conclude the following: (1) The ideal analysis should harmonize rather than differentiate resilience and reliability. Therefore, this report uses the more general term disturbance whenever the overloaded terms resilience and reliability can be avoided. (2) The effectiveness of TE systems must be mapped to underlying qualities of a TE system, thereby avoiding presumptions that every TE design offers similar advantages. The authors seek to evaluate the parametric effects of TE system qualities (e.g., spatial granularity, granularity of time steps, length of future prediction horizon) on avoiding, reacting to, and recovering from grid disturbances. Furthermore, any advantages (or disadvantages) must be fairly compared with the many alternative tools, systems, and strategies that might offer comparable benefits.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗