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At least 289 records · Page 16

Semi-automated Design of Artificial Intelligence Earth Systems Models

Prediction and observation of water cycles at various scales involve not only patterns isolated in space and time, but also modeling of complex spatio-temporal relationships across multiple domains. For instance, evapotranspiration (ET) and leaf area indexes (LAI) are two parameters that are needed to accurately model and understand land-atmosphere processes. Accurate assessments of ET and LAI are critical for understanding hydrological processes, deforestation, crop yield, and irrigation impacts. However, ET estimates for global simulations are available at very coarse spatial resolution. They are usually derived from satellite data based on broad plant functional types (PFTs), which fail to capture fine-scale variations because of changes in vegetation type across the globe. Similarly LAI estimates have typically been derived from vegetation indices at global scales or estimated locally using physical models, both of which suffer from a range of uncertainties that impact model sensitivity. The new era of AI model development for Earth systems (ES) calls for data-driven methods that provide domain scientists with uncertainty-aware estimations of biophysical parameters such as ET and LAI in a generalizable, interpretable, and discoverable manner.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Molten Salt Reactor Passive Heat Removal System Modeling

The direct reactor auxiliary cooling system is a very robust, passive safety system that is designed to remove up to 2.36 MW of heat from the reactor during accident conditions. This report details a variety of DRACS degradation conditions and their effect on the safety of the reactor. This preliminary investigation shows that only two of the three DRACS loops are necessary to quickly suppress the decay heat produced by a newly shut down reactor. Even with a single DRACS loop operational, the maximum salt temperature observed was far below the safety specification of the plant (1173 K). When investigating the degraded performance of each DRACS loop, the short-term maximum salt temperature observed was strongly dependent on the DHX performance but was unaffected by the TCHX performance. However, even a heavily degraded DHX heat transfer performance was sufficient to halt the rising salt temperature due to decay heat. Further investigation should be done to characterize the effects of TCHX performance degradation at longer time scales. High levels of TCHX degradation were shown to lead to a reactor salt temperature minimum after a few hours of operation followed by a steady increase in temperature. With reduced ability to exhaust heat to the environment, it is possible the DRACS would be unable to maintain cooling during a long loss of active cooling event.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

NLR Engage™: A Calliope Web Environment for Collaborative Energy Systems Modeling and Planning [SWR-20-16]

NLR Engage™ is a free, open-access energy system planning tool that allows multiple users/stakeholders to develop and collaborate on capacity expansion models. The tool, developed at the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR), provides a collaborative and easy-to-use interface built on Calliope, a multi-scale energy systems modeling framework. Visit the NLR hosted webtool at https://engage.nlr.gov/en/login/?next=/en/

Harris, Tom↗

Retail Rate Projections for Long-Term Electricity System Models

Electricity prices reported in most electricity-system planning studies leave out many price components and do not translate into retail rates, making it difficult to interpret how projected electricity system changes will impact costs to consumers. Full transmission costs are left out of many studies; distribution and administration costs are similarly excluded or highly simplified. Here, we present a detailed bottom-up accounting method for projecting future retail electricity rates in the United States. Making the simplifying assumption that each state is served by an investor-owned utility (IOU), we translate projected generation and transmission capacity and costs from the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) capacity-expansion model into IOU balance sheet expenditures, accounting for depreciation, taxes, and the breakdown between operating and capitalized (rate-based) expenses. Distribution, administration, and intra-regional transmission costs are projected forward based on empirical trends over the past decade. Modeled bottom-up electricity rates are compared to historical rates from 2010-2019, and the sensitivity of modeled rates to a range of financing and modeling assumptions is explored. Distribution and administration rate components account for roughly 40% (4.4 ¢/kWh) of the projected national-average retail rate over 2020-2050 under central assumptions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Urban-Scale Processes in High-Spatial-Resolution Earth System Models

Cities and their associated urban areas have a much larger impact on the environment than their spatial footprint on the Earth's surface. This is undoubtedly true at local and regional scales, but also at global scales. At this time, more than half of the world's population lives in urban areas (80% in the United States), and the global proportion is projected to climb to 70% by 2050. Therefore, numerical models to study physics, chemistry, and biology affecting the Earth system at regional and global scales must represent the effects of urban areas on climate and the effects of a changing climate on urban areas. At the same time, it is essential to develop state of the art, simple and accurate urban models to better understand the relevant processes and also to address issues related to urban security against the spectra of chemical, biological and radiological (CBR) hazards. Towards bringing urban scientific communities together, a two-and-a-half-day international workshop was held at the Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) in the Chicago area on May 22-24, 2019. This workshop brought together more than 60 national and international experts to develop a roadmap for a better understanding of the issues associated with urban areas and at enhancing the capabilities of regional and global Earth System models (ESMs) in representing the atmospheric dynamics and chemistry, unique aspects of the biosphere and land use, and human dimensions of the urban environment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

WORKSHOP ON URBAN SCALE PROCESSES AND THEIR REPRESENTATION IN HIGH SPATIAL RESOLUTION EARTH SYSTEM MODELS

It is essential that numerical models used to study physics, chemistry, and biology affecting the Earth system at regional and global scales represent the effects of urban areas on climate and the effects of changing the climate on urban areas. At the same time, it is essential to develop state of the art, simple and accurate urban models to better understand the relevant processes and also toaddress issues related to urban security against the spectra of chemical, biological and radiological (CBR) hazards. Towards bringing these communities together, a 2.5-day international workshop was held at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) in the Chicago area on May 22-24, 2019. This workshop brought together national and international experts to develop a roadmap for a better understanding of the issues associated with urban areas and at enhancing the capabilities of regional and global Earth System models (ESMs) in representing the atmospheric dynamics and chemistry, unique aspects of the biosphere and land use, and human dimensions of the urban environment. This workshop was especially important to those developing very high-resolution versions of regional and global models. The workshop also discussed existing datasets, including in situ and satellite observations, and the emerging smart city sensing technologies and their possible use in model development (e.g., the NSF-funded Array of Things network currently operating in Chicago and expanding to other cities).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An overview of cloud–radiation denial experiments for the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1

Abstract. The interaction between clouds and radiation is a key process within the climate system, and assessing the impacts of that interaction provides valuable insights into both the present-day climate and future projections. Many modeling experiments have been designed over the years to probe the impact of the cloud radiative effect (CRE) on the climate, including those that seek to disrupt the mean CRE effect and those that only disrupt the covariance of the CRE with the circulation. Seven such experimental designs have been added to the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1) of the US Department of Energy. These experiments include both the first and second iterations of the Clouds On/Off Klimate Intercomparison Experiment (COOKIE) experimental design, as well as the cloud-locking method. This paper documents the code changes necessary to implement such experiments and also provides detailed instructions for how to run them. Analyses across experiment types provide valuable insights and confirm the findings of prior studies, including the role of cloud radiative heating toward intensifying the monsoon, intensifying rain rates, and poleward expansion of the general circulation owing to cloud feedbacks.

Harrop, Bryce E. (ORCID:0000000339524525)↗

Using multiple high-resolution datasets to benchmark the energy exascale earth system model (E3SM) for renewable resource assessment

The United States is accelerating its shift toward a renewable energy system. However, renewable resources, which harness energy from the Earth system, are susceptible to both present-day climate variability and future climate change. For example, variations in regional climate can alter renewable energy production patterns and site viability. The use of high-resolution climate model projections can therefore facilitate and may be critical to long-term planning of renewable energy investments. However, climate models must first be validated for renewable resource assessment. This research employs multiple high-spatiotemporal-resolution datasets to assess the capability of the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 North American Regionally Refined Model (E3SMv2-NARRM) for predicting multi-year climatological values of solar and wind energy capacity factors in the continental U.S., with a focus on regional and seasonal variability. Present-day E3SMv2-NARRM simulations are compared with reported utility-scale production data obtained from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). In addition, E3SMv2-NARRM data are evaluated against non-climate benchmark models from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, including the Wind Integration National Dataset Toolkit and the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), as well as three wind energy datasets from PLUSWIND. Our analysis indicates that solar capacity factors from E3SM closely match those from the NSRDB dataset. However, both datasets tend to overestimate values by 10% in comparison to EIA data. Furthermore, biases in wind capacity factors within E3SM are notably pronounced in the West Coast regions, where the seasonal cycle diverges from EIA data.

Energy forecasting, Capacity factor, Renewable ene↗

Supervised Learning for Distribution Secondary Systems Modeling: Improving Solar Interconnection Processes

The current interconnection process and hosting capacity analysis for distributed energy resources (DERs), such as photovoltaics (PV) and battery energy storage systems, are based on analyzing grid network constraints (voltage and thermal) using only medium-voltage distribution network models. This is because most utilities do not have secondary low-voltage system models that connect service transformers and residential customers. This is important because in many cases the main impact of interconnecting DERs could occur on the low-voltage distribution systems. This paper proposes a supervised learning method to approximate local secondary models to improve the interconnection process. The proposed supervised learning method includes a decision tree model that predicts the secondary topology and a logistic regression model that predicts conductor types. The case studies demonstrate the benefits of including secondary low-voltage circuits in the interconnection process. We report the proposed modeling methodology is readily scalable and thus can reduce the cost and effort of PV interconnection for the industry and stakeholders.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Covalent Drug Binding in Live Cells Monitored by Mid-Infrared Quantum Cascade Laser Spectroscopy: Photoactive Yellow Protein as a Model System

The detection of drug-target interactions in live cells enables analysis of therapeutic compounds in a native cellular environment. Recent advances in spectroscopy and molecular biology have facilitated the development of genetically encoded vibrational probes like nitriles that can sensitively report on molecular interactions. Nitriles are powerful tools for measuring electrostatic environments within condensed media like proteins, but such measurements in live cells have been hindered by low signal-to-noise ratios. In this study, we design a spectrometer based on a double-beam quantum cascade laser (QCL)-based transmission infrared (IR) source with balanced detection that can significantly enhance sensitivity to nitrile vibrational probes embedded in proteins within cells compared to a conventional FTIR spectrometer. Here, using this approach, we detect small-molecule binding in Escherichia coli, with particular focus on the interaction between para-Coumaric acid (pCA) and nitrile-incorporated photoactive yellow protein (PYP). This system effectively serves as a model for investigating covalent drug binding in a cellular environment. Notably, we observe large spectral shifts of up to 15 cm –1 for nitriles embedded in PYP between the unbound and drug-bound states directly within bacteria, in agreement with observations for purified proteins. Such large spectral shifts are ascribed to the changes in the hydrogen-bonding environment around the local environment of nitriles, accurately modeled through high-level molecular dynamics simulations using the AMOEBA force field. Our findings underscore the QCL spectrometer’s ability to enhance sensitivity for monitoring drug–protein interactions, offering new opportunities for advanced methodologies in drug development and biochemical research.

chromophores↗

Building Large-Scale U.S. Synthetic Electric Distribution System Models

Rapid increases in distributed energy resources on distribution systems are prompting research efforts to improve and evaluate electric power distribution algorithms; however, there is a shortage of realistic, large-scale, U.S.-style test systems for the evaluation of such advanced algorithms. Some available tools to build large-scale test systems are of European style, and their application to studies focused on the United States might not be desirable given very different characteristics between the European and U.S. distribution designs. Motivated by this need, this paper develops detailed algorithms to build large-scale U.S. distribution systems and incorporates them in a new Reference Network Model, RNM-US. The approach starts with information from street maps and a catalog with electric equipment that includes power lines, transformers, voltage regulators, capacitors, and switching devices. The paper presents the algorithms through an illustrative case study of the different steps that comprise the process of building a synthetic distribution grid. Finally, the paper presents a medium- and a large-scale data set covering 10 million electrical nodes and 120,000 km of power lines, demonstrating the applicability of the proposed method to build very large-scale synthetic distribution systems.

27 ARPA - Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy↗

An ensemble data assimilation modeling system for operational outdoor microalgae growth forecasting

Microalgae have received increasing attention as a potential feedstock for biofuel or biobased products. Forecasting the microalgae growth is beneficial for managers in planning pond operations and harvesting decisions. This study proposed a biomass forecasting system comprised of the Huesemann Algae Biomass Growth Model (BGM), the Modular Aquatic Simulation System in Two Dimensions (MASS2), ensemble data assimilation (DA), and numerical weather prediction Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) ensemble meteorological forecasts. The novelty of this study is to seek the use of ensemble DA to improve both BGM and MASS2 model initial conditions with the assimilation of biomass and water temperature measurements and consequently improve short-term biomass forecasting skills. This study introduces the theory behind the proposed integrated biomass forecasting system, with an application undertaken in pseudo-real-time in three outdoor ponds cultured with Chlorella sorokiniana in Delhi, California, United States. Results from all three case studies demonstrate that the biomass forecasting system improved the short-term (i.e., 7-day) biomass forecasting skills by about 60% on average, comparing to forecasts without using the ensemble DA method. Given the satisfactory performances achieved in this study, it is probable that the integrated BGM-MASS2-DA forecasting system can be used operationally to inform managers in making pond operation and harvesting planning decisions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Development of the reactor core isolation cooling system model for the extended station black-out accident

In order to accurately predict the behavior of the Reactor Core Isolation Cooling System (RCIC) in the context of the FLEX strategies under the extended station black-out accident (SBO), we present a mechanistic model of the RCIC in this work. The control volume formulation of angular momentum conservation is employed to model the Terry turbine in the RCIC system. The two-phase nozzle flow model developed in the previous work is utilized to simulate the convergent-divergent nozzles in the Terry turbine. A nozzle flow table is generated to cover the operation range of the RCIC during beyond design basis accidents (BDBAs). The mechanistic RCIC turbine-pump model and the nozzle flow table are incorporated in a TRACE BWR model. Simulations of short-term and long-term SBO transients are performed to demonstrate dynamic RCIC responses. A system analysis code with the proposed mechanistic model of the RCIC system will have a better prediction of system safety response during SBO accidents. With the addition of such more realistic models, the system code will be capable of providing expanded understanding of safety margin, which can help help to form the technical basis for the successful implementation of the FLEX and SAMG measures under Extended Loss of AC Power (ELAP) conditions for BWR or PWR reactor designs.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

A methodology to develop multi-physics dynamic fuel cell system models validated with vehicle realistic drive cycle data

Fuel cell (FC) technology has been identified as a technically attractive solution to decarbonize the transportation sector, especially for heavy-duty vehicles. In this context, the industry and the scientific community are in need of advanced fuel cell systems (FCS) models that are able to replicate real -world operating conditions. Due to the scarcity of said models in the open literature, this study aimed to develop a comprehensive methodology to calibrate and validate multi -physics dynamic FCS models. Therefore, the key contribution of this paper is the detailed description of the calibration process for each component and the calibration order. The specific focus here was to accurately describe the behavior of the FC stack as well as the cathode, anode, and cooling circuits of the balance of plant. The model was calibrated with the aid of experimental data from a Toyota Mirai FC electric vehicle, which was predominantly retrieved from the vehicle's Controller Area Network (CAN) bus system thereby negating the need for major intrusion into the powertrain system. The validation process was deemed successful with the model being able to truthfully replicate the characteristics of the FC vehicle operated on the World-wide harmonized Light duty Test Cycle (WLTC) 3b and US06 driving cycle. The time -resolved physical parameters such as the cathode pressure, mass flow, or the FC stack temperature were captured with high fidelity, while the overall performance parameters such as the H2 consumption in the stack and the system, and the compressor energy consumption were predicted accurately with a deviation lower than 0.47%, 1.75% and 1.89% with respect to the experimental data, respectively.

Lopez-Juarez, Marcos↗

An Overview of Nano Multilayers as Model Systems for Developing Nanoscale Microstructures

The microstructural transformations of binary nanometallic multilayers (NMMs) to equiaxed nanostructured materials were explored by characterizing a variety of nanoscale multilayer films. Four material systems of multilayer films, Hf-Ti, Ta-Hf, W-Cr, and Mo-Au, were synthesized by magnetron sputtering, heat treated at 1000 °C, and subsequently characterized by transmission electron microscopy. Binary systems were selected based on thermodynamic models predicting stable nanograin formation with similar global compositions around 20–30 at.%. All NMMs maintained nanocrystalline grain sizes after evolution into an equiaxed structure, where the systems with highly mobile incoherent interfaces or higher energy interfaces showed a more significant increase in grain size. Furthermore, varying segregation behaviors were observed, including grain boundary (GB) segregation, precipitation, and intermetallic formation depending on the material system selected. The pathway to tailored microstructures was found to be governed by key mechanisms and factors as determined by a film’s initial characteristics, including global and local composition, interface energy, layer structure, and material selection. This work presents a global evaluation of NMM systems and demonstrates their utility as foundation materials to promote tailored nanomaterials.

Appleget, Chelsea D.↗