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At least 289 records · Page 16

Bounding the Risk of Crew Loss Following Orbital Debris Penetration of the International Space Station at Assembly Stages 1J and 1E

Orbital debris impacts on the International Space Station occur frequently. To date, none of the impacting particles has been sufficiently large to penetrate manned pressurized volumes. We used the Manned Spacecraft Crew Survivability code to evaluate the risk to crew of penetrations of pressurized modules at two assembly stages: after Flight lJ, when the pressurized elements of Kibo, the Japanese Experiment Module, are present, and after Flight lE, when the European Columbus Module is present. Our code is a Monte Carlo simulation of impacts on the Station that considers several potential event types that could lead to crew loss. Among the statistics tabulated by the program is the probability of death of one or more crew members, expressed as the risk factor, R. This risk factor is dependent on details of crew operations during both ordinary circumstances and decompression emergencies, as well as on details of internal module configurations. We conducted trade studies considering these procedure and configuration details to determine the bounds on R at the 1J and 1E stages in the assembly sequence. Here we compare the R-factor bounds, and procedures and configurations that reduce R at these stages.

Evans, S.↗

A hybrid technique for spacecraft attitude interpolation with arbitrary attitude data gaps

An algorithm for obtaining sufficiently accurate estimates of a system parameter Y, given a data record of the parameter in which at arbitrary times no direct observations of Y exist, and describing the variance of these estimates, is proposed. The method provides estimates at all requested times, and the variance of the estimates is maintained as close to the variance of directly measured data as the quality of input information will allow. Three classes of information are used: (1) the measured data record of Y and the statistical extension of this record into time intervals of no direct measurement, obtained by a modification of standard autocorrelation techniques; (2) an a priori indicator of the behavior of Y; and (3) one or more indirect indicators of Y based on observation of other system parameters. The application of the algorithm to the SEASAT-A attitude determination under conditions of sensor field-of-view limitations and sun occultations is presented.

Treder, A. J.↗

Global Energetics of Solar Flares: Nonthermal Energies - Part III

This study entails the third part of a global flare energetics project, in which Ramaty High-Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI) data of 191 M and X-class flare events from the first 3.5 years of the Solar Dynamics Observatory mission are analyzed. We fit a thermal and a nonthermal component to RHESSI spectra, yielding the temperature of the differential emission measure (DEM) tail, the nonthermal power-law slope and flux, and the thermal nonthermal cross-over energy eco. From these parameters, we calculate the total nonthermal energy E(sub nt) in electrons with two different methods: (1) using the observed cross-over energy e(sub co) as low-energy cutoff, and (2) using the low-energy cut off e(sub wt) predicted by the warm thick-target bremsstrahlung model of Kontar et al. Based on a mean temperature of T(sub e) = 8.6 MK in active regions, we find low-energy cutoff energies of e(sub wt) = 6.2 +/-1.6 keV for the warm-target model, which is significantly lower than the cross-over energies e(sub co) = 21 +/- 6 keV. Comparing with the statistics of magnetically dissipated energies E(sub mag) and thermal energies E(sub th) from the two previous studies, we find the following mean (logarithmic) energy ratios with the warm-target model: E(sub nt) = 0.41E(sub mag), E(sub th) = 0.08 E(sub mag), and E(sub th) = 0.15 E(sub nt). The total dissipated magnetic energy exceeds the thermal energy in 95% and the nonthermal energy in 71% of the flare events, which confirms that magnetic reconnection processes are sufficient to explain flare energies. The nonthermal energy exceeds the thermal energy in 85% of the events, which largely confirms the warm thick-target model.

Aschwanden, Markus J.↗

Summertime photochemistry of the troposphere at high northern latitudes

Budgets of O3, NO(x), and NO(y), and acetic acid in the Arctic Boundary Layer Expedition (ABLE 3A) flight region are constructed using photochemical model statistics based on aircraft observations. A Lagrangian model is used to reconstruct the photochemical history of two aged biomass fire plumes sampled by the ABLE 3A aircraft. It is shown that anthropogenic influence on O3 levels in the Arctic may manifest itself not by long-range transport of pollution-derived O3, but rather by a decrease of the regional photochemical sink due to the presence of small amounts of NO(x). The low concentrations of NO(x) measured in ABLE 3A were sufficient to reduce the rate of photochemical loss appreciably relative to a NO(x)-free atmosphere, thus increasing the O3 lifetime. It is shown that decomposition of PAN can account for most of the NO(x) measured below 4-km altitude, but for only 20 percent at 6-km altitude. A lifetime of 29 days is estimated for NO(y) in the ABLE 23A flight region.

Jacob, D. J.↗

Completing the Copernican Revolution: The search for other planetary systems

The past few decades have witnessed significant advances in our understanding of how stars form, and there has been an associated increase in our knowledge of conditions and phenomena in the early solar system. These have led to the formulation of a paradigm for the origin of the solar system that is sufficiently complete that its basic elements can be tested directly through observations. A simple, but profound, consequence of the paradigm is that most if not all stars should be accompanied by planetary systems. The accuracy of instruments that can be used in such searches has improved to the point that Jupiter-like companions to a number of nearby stars could be detected. However, the results to date are that no other planetary systems have been detected, and the absence of detection is becoming statistically significant, particularly as it relates to the existence of brown dwarf companions to main-sequence stars.

Black, David C.↗

Thermodynamic processes induced by coherent radiation

It is shown by quantum statistics that under certain stated conditions the entropy of coherent radiation is zero and it is still negligible for multimode laser operation. This makes possible gas kinetic processes which, to a small extent, have already been observed or even utilized, but which can be greatly enhanced by an optimized choice of molecular structures and radiation conditions. Radiative cooling of gases is discussed in detail. The conditions for maximum heat withdrawal are derived, and it is proposed that the processes of cooling and relaxation heating can be sufficiently separated in time to achieve certain effects and thermodynamic cycles. One of these is the complete conversion, possible in principle, of coherent radiation into work. This concept is based on a heat pump process followed by heat-to-work conversion, the heat rejected being just equal to that withdrawn by radiation. The conditions for complete conversion turn out to be the same as for maximum heat withdrawal. The feasibility of these processes depends on the degree to which practical conditions can be met, and on the validity of certain assumptions which have to await experimental verification.

Garbuny, M.↗

Assessing Videogrammetry for Static Aeroelastic Testing of a Wind-Tunnel Model

The Videogrammetric Model Deformation (VMD) technique, developed at NASA Langley Research Center, was recently used to measure displacements and local surface angle changes on a static aeroelastic wind-tunnel model. The results were assessed for consistency, accuracy and usefulness. Vertical displacement measurements and surface angular deflections (derived from vertical displacements) taken at no-wind/no-load conditions were analyzed. For accuracy assessment, angular measurements were compared to those from a highly accurate accelerometer. Shewhart's Variables Control Charts were used in the assessment of consistency and uncertainty. Some bad data points were discovered, and it is shown that the measurement results at certain targets were more consistent than at other targets. Physical explanations for this lack of consistency have not been determined. However, overall the measurements were sufficiently accurate to be very useful in monitoring wind-tunnel model aeroelastic deformation and determining flexible stability and control derivatives. After a structural model component failed during a highly loaded condition, analysis of VMD data clearly indicated progressive structural deterioration as the wind-tunnel condition where failure occurred was approached. As a result, subsequent testing successfully incorporated near- real-time monitoring of VMD data in order to ensure structural integrity. The potential for higher levels of consistency and accuracy through the use of statistical quality control practices are discussed and recommended for future applications.

Spain, Charles V.↗

Optimized multisectioned acoustic liners

New calculations show that segmenting is most efficient at high frequencies with relatively long duct lengths where the attenuation is low for both uniform and segmented liners. Statistical considerations indicate little advantage in using optimized liners with more than two segments while the bandwidth of an optimized two-segment liner is shown to be nearly equal to that of a uniform liner. Multielement liner calculations show a large degradation in performance due to changes in assumed input modal structure. Computer programs are used to generate theoretical attenuations for a number of liner configurations for liners in a rectangular duct with no mean flow. Overall, the use of optimized multisectioned liners fails to offer sufficient advantage over a uniform liner to warrant their use except in low frequency single mode application.

Baumeister, K. J.↗

The evolution of large-scale structure in a universe dominated by cold dark matter

The results of numerical simulations of nonlinear gravitational clustering in universes dominated by weakly interacting, 'cold' dark matter are presented. The numerical methods used and the way in which initial conditions were generated are described, and the simulations performed are catalogued. The evolution of the fundamental statistical properties of the models is described and their comparability with observation is discussed. Graphical comparisons of these open models with the observed galaxy distribution in a large redshift survey are made. It is concluded that a model with a cosmological density parameter omega equal to one is quite unacceptable if galaxies trace the mass distribution, and that models with omega of roughly two, while better, still do not provide a fully acceptable match with observation. Finally, a situation in which galaxy formation is suppressed except in sufficiently dense regions is modelled which leads to models which can agree with observation quite well even for omega equal to one.

Davis, M.↗

Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) onboard attitude determination using a Kalman filter

The Upper Atmospheric Research Satellite (UARS) requires a highly accurate knowledge of its attitude to accomplish its mission. Propagation of the attitude state using gyro measurements is not sufficient to meet the accuracy requirements, and must be supplemented by a observer/compensation process to correct for dynamics and observation anomalies. The process of amending the attitude state utilizes a well known method, the discrete Kalman Filter. This study is a sensitivity analysis of the discrete Kalman Filter as implemented in the UARS Onboard Computer (OBC). The stability of the Kalman Filter used in the normal on-orbit control mode within the OBC, is investigated for the effects of corrupted observations and nonlinear errors. Also, a statistical analysis on the residuals of the Kalman Filter is performed. These analysis is based on simulations using the UARS Dynamics Simulator (UARSDSIM) and compared against attitude requirements as defined by General Electric (GE). An independent verification of expected accuracies is performed using the Attitude Determination Error Analysis System (ADEAS).

Garrick, Joseph↗

Water Vapor Transport Over the Tropical Oceans During ENSO as Diagnosed from TRMM and SSM/I Data

Traditionally, large-scale water vapor transport [div Q] has been derived directly from circulation statistics in which transport processes are often depicted by mean and eddy motions. Thus detailed and accurate calculations of moisture transport terms over the globe are required. Notably, the lack of systematically spaced conventional measurements of meteorological variables over oceans has hindered understanding of the distribution and transport of water vapor. This motivates the use of indirect calculation methods in which horizontal divergence of water vapor is balanced by the evaporation minus precipitation, assuming the rate of changes of precipitable water and condensates is small over a sufficiently long time period. In order to obtain the water vapor transport, we need evaporation rate minus precipitation (E-P). Focussing on the differences in water vapor transport between El Nino and La Nina periods and their influences on atmospheric circulations, we study January, February, and March of 1998 and 1999 periods which represent El Nino and La Nina respectively. SSM/I-derived precipitation and evaporation rate from SSM/I wind and total precipitable water, in conjunction with NCEP SST and surface air temperature, are used for the calculation of the transport potential function. For the retrieval of evaporation we use a stability-dependent aerodynamic bulk scheme developed by Chou (1993). It was tested against aircraft covariance fluxes measured during cold air outbreaks over the North Atlantic Ocean. Chou et al. (1997) reported that the SSM/I retrieved latent heat flux over the western Pacific warm pool area were found to be comparable with daily mean fluxes of a ship measurements during TOGA/COARE.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

Kinematics and dynamics of the MKW/AWM poor clusters

We report 472 new redshifts for 416 galaxies in the regions of the 23 poor clusters of galaxies originally identified by Morgan, Kayser, and White (MKW), and Albert, White, and Morgan (AWM). Eighteen of the poor clusters now have 10 or more available redshifts within 1.5/h Mpc of the central galaxy; 11 clusters have at least 20 available redshifts. Based on the 21 clusters for which we have sufficient velocity information, the median velocity scale is 336 km/s, a factor of 2 smaller than found for rich clusters. Several of the poor clusters exhibit complex velocity distributions due to the presence of nearby clumps of galaxies. We check on the velocity of the dominant galaxy in each poor cluster relative to the remaining cluster members. Significantly high relative velocities of the dominant galaxy are found in only 4 of 21 poor clusters, 3 of which we suspect are due to contamination of the parent velocity distribution. Several statistical tests indicate that the D/cD galaxies are at the kinematic centers of the parent poor cluster velocity distributions. Mass-to-light ratios for 13 of the 15 poor clusters for which we have the required data are in the range 50 less than or = M/L(sub B(0)) less than or = 200 solar mass/solar luminosity. The complex nature of the regions surrounding many of the poor clusters suggests that these groupings may represent an early epoch of cluster formation. For example, the poor clusters MKW7 and MKWS are shown to be gravitationally bound and likely to merge to form a richer cluster within the next several Gyrs. Eight of the nine other poor clusters for which simple two-body dynamical models can be carried out are consistent with being bound to other clumps in their vicinity. Additional complex systems with more than two gravitationally bound clumps are observed among the poor clusters.

Beers, Timothy C.↗

First Year Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe(WMAP)Observations: The Angular Power Spectrum

We present the angular power spectrum derived from the first-year Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) sky maps. We study a variety of power spectrum estimation methods and data combinations and demonstrate that the results are robust. The data are modestly contaminated by diffuse Galactic foreground emission, but we show that a simple Galactic template model is sufficient to remove the signal. Point sources produce a modest contamination in the low frequency data. After masking approximately 700 known bright sources from the maps, we estimate residual sources contribute approximately 3500 mu sq Kappa at 41 GHz, and approximately 130 mu sq Kappa at 94 GHz, to the power spectrum [iota(iota + 1)C(sub iota)/2pi] at iota = 1000. Systematic errors are negligible compared to the (modest) level of foreground emission. Our best estimate of the power spectrum is derived from 28 cross-power spectra of statistically independent channels. The final spectrum is essentially independent of the noise properties of an individual radiometer. The resulting spectrum provides a definitive measurement of the CMB power spectrum, with uncertainties limited by cosmic variance, up to iota approximately 350. The spectrum clearly exhibits a first acoustic peak at iota = 220 and a second acoustic peak at iota approximately 540, and it provides strong support for adiabatic initial conditions. Researchers have analyzed the CT(sup Epsilon) power spectrum, and present evidence for a relatively high optical depth, and an early period of cosmic reionization. Among other things, this implies that the temperature power spectrum has been suppressed by approximately 30% on degree angular scales, due to secondary scattering.

Hinshaw, G.↗

The Infeasibility of Quantifying the Reliability of Life-Critical Real-Time Software

This paper affirms that the quantification of life-critical software reliability is infeasible using statistical methods whether applied to standard software or fault-tolerant software. The classical methods of estimating reliability are shown to lead to exhorbitant amounts of testing when applied to life-critical software. Reliability growth models are examined and also shown to be incapable of overcoming the need for excessive amounts of testing. The key assumption of software fault tolerance separately programmed versions fail independently is shown to be problematic. This assumption cannot be justified by experimentation in the ultrareliability region and subjective arguments in its favor are not sufficiently strong to justify it as an axiom. Also, the implications of the recent multiversion software experiments support this affirmation.

Butler, Ricky W.↗

Fractional Snowcover Estimates from Earth Observing System (EOS) Terra and Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the NASA Earth Observing System (EOS) Terra and Aqua missions has shown considerable capability for mapping snowcover. The typical approach that has used, along with other criteria, the Normalized Snow Difference Index (NDSI) that takes the difference between 500 meter observations at 1.64 micrometers (MODIS band 6) and 0.555 micrometers (MODIS band 4) over the sum of these observations to determine whether MODIS pixels are snowcovered or not in mapping the extent of snowcover. For many hydrological and climate studies using remote sensing of snowcover, it is desirable to assess if the MODIS snowcover observations could not be enhanced by providing the fraction of snowcover in each MODIS observation (pixel). Pursuant to this objective studies have been conducted to assess whether there is sufficient "signal%o in the NDSI parameter to provide useful estimates of fractional snowcover in each MODIS 500 meter pixel. To accomplish this objective high spatial resolution (30 meter) Landsat snowcover observations were used and co-registered with MODIS 500 meter pixels. The NDSI approach was used to assess whether a Landsat pixel was or was not snowcovered. Then the number of snowcovered Landsat pixels within a MODIS pixel was used to determine the fraction of snowcover within each MODIS pixel. The e results were then used to develop statistical relationships between the NDSI value for each 500 meter MODIS pixel and the fraction of snowcover in the MODIS pixel. Such studies were conducted for three widely different areas covered by Landsat scenes in Alaska, Russia, and the Quebec Province in Canada. The statistical relationships indicate that a 10 percent accuracy can be attained. The variability in the statistical relationship for the three areas was found to be remarkably similar (-0.02 for mean error and less than 0.01 for mean absolute error and standard deviation). Independent tests of the relationships were accomplished by taking the relationship of fractional snow-cover to NDSI from one area (e.g., Alaska) and testing it on the other two areas (e.g. Russia and Quebec). Again the results showed that fractional snow-cover can be estimated to 10 percent. The results have been shown to have advantages over other published fractional snowcover algorithms applied to MODIS data. Most recently the fractional snow-cover algorithm has been applied using 500-meter observations over the state of Colorado for a period spanning 25 days. The results exhibit good behavior in mapping the spatial and temporal variability in snowcover over that 25-day period. Overall these studies indicate that robust estimates of fractional snow-cover can be attained using the NDSI parameter over areas extending in size from watersheds relatively large compared to MODIS pixels to global land cover. Other refinements to this approach as well as different approaches are being examined for mapping fractional snow-cover using MODIS observations.

Salomonson, Vincent V.↗

Deep Mapping of Small Solar System Bodies with Galactic Cosmic Ray Secondary Particle Showers

We will investigate the use of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) secondary particles to probe the deep interiors of small solar system bodies (SSBs), including comets, asteroids, and geologic structures on the surfaces of airless bodies. Applications include solar system science, planetary defense, and resource utilization. Our Phase I study demonstrated that muons, the long-range charged component of GCR showers, can penetrate SSBs up to a km in diameter, providing information on their interior structure. Muons produced in Earth’s atmosphere have been applied to image the interior of large objects for science and engineering. In Phase I, we found that the production of muons in the solid surfaces of airless bodies is much smaller than in Earth’s atmosphere. Nevertheless, the flux of transmitted muons is sufficient to detect inclusions within an asteroid or comet in a reasonable amount of time, ranging from hours to weeks, depending on the size of the SSB and the density contrast, position and size of the inclusion. For asteroids and comets, large density variations (e.g., porous soil or ice versus solid rock) are relatively easy to detect. The intrinsic spatial resolution of muon radiography (“muography”) is on the scale of a few meters. The spatial resolution that can be achieved in practice depends on signal intensity and integration time (counting statistics), the angular resolution of the muon tracker (hodoscope) and details of data reduction and analysis methodology. Our Phase II project will assess remaining unknowns for the application of muography to determining the interior structure of SSBs, assess risks for implementation, and provide a roadmap for development of SSB muography beyond the NIAC program. To achieve our objectives, we will focus on four interrelated tasks: Task1) Signal and background characterization: Characterize the production and transmission of muons and secondary particle backgrounds made by cosmic ray showers in SSBs; and near-surface features from radiographic and tomographic data; Task2) Imaging studies: Develop methods to determine the density structure of SSB interiors and near-surface features from radiographic and tomographic data; Task3) Instrument design: Using simulations and bench-top laboratory experiments, investigate specific concepts for the design of compact hodoscopes and components; Task4) Synthesis: Combine the results of the first three tasks to determine the range of applicability of the method, identify the steps needed for maturation of the concept, and explore concepts for a pilot muography mission.

Prettyman, Thomas H.↗

Differential scaling: Implications for central structures in large lunar craters

The change in morphology of central structures with crater size on the terrestrial planets has been studied by many investigators. While the progression of morphological change essentially follows the same basic pattern, the appearance of central peaks, and the transitions from single to multiple peaks and peaks to peak rings occur at crater diameters that appear to be dependent on parameters associated with the target planet. Statistical data, morphological information, and model results exist for central structures in large craters, but the amount of 'ground truth' is comparatively meager. What, for instance, is the amount of stratigraphic uplift in craters? Answers to questions such as this will provide useful constraints on models of origin for central structures and would help in interpretation of remote-sensing data. This contribution uses terrestrial information and model calculations to estimate the amount of stratigraphic uplift for central-peak craters on the Moon--the only planet other than Earth for which sufficient topographic data are available.

Cintala, M. J.↗

Space station integrated wall damage and penetration damage control. Task 5: Space debris measurement, mapping and characterization system

The procedures and results of a study of a conceptual system for measuring the debris environment on the space station is discussed. The study was conducted in two phases: the first consisted of experiments aimed at evaluating location of impact through panel response data collected from acoustic emission sensors; the second analyzed the available statistical description of the environment to determine the probability of the measurement system producing useful data, and analyzed the results of the previous tests to evaluate the accuracy of location and the feasibility of extracting impactor characteristics from the panel response. The conclusions were that for one panel the system would not be exposed to any event, but that the entire Logistics Module would provide a modest amount of data. The use of sensors with higher sensitivity than those used in the tests could be advantageous. The impact location could be found with sufficient accuracy from panel response data. The waveforms of the response were shown to contain information on the impact characteristics, but the data set did not span a sufficient range of the variables necessary to evaluate the feasibility of extracting the information.

Lempriere, B. M.↗