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NASA NTRS1989

Learning in stochastic neural networks for constraint satisfaction problems

Researchers describe a newly-developed artificial neural network algorithm for solving constraint satisfaction problems (CSPs) which includes a learning component that can significantly improve the performance of the network from run to run. The network, referred to as the Guarded Discrete Stochastic (GDS) network, is based on the discrete Hopfield network but differs from it primarily in that auxiliary networks (guards) are asymmetrically coupled to the main network to enforce certain types of constraints. Although the presence of asymmetric connections implies that the network may not converge, it was found that, for certain classes of problems, the network often quickly converges to find satisfactory solutions when they exist. The network can run efficiently on serial machines and can find solutions to very large problems (e.g., N-queens for N as large as 1024). One advantage of the network architecture is that network connection strengths need not be instantiated when the network is established: they are needed only when a participating neural element transitions from off to on. They have exploited this feature to devise a learning algorithm, based on consistency techniques for discrete CSPs, that updates the network biases and connection strengths and thus improves the network performance.

Johnston, Mark D.↗

DOE OSTI2021

NO PLIF flow visualization and time-resolved temperature distributions in laser induced breakdown plumes

NO planar laser induced fluorescence (PLIF) is used to obtain images of laser-induced breakdown plasma plumes in NO-seeded nitrogen and dry air at near atmospheric pressure. Single-shot PLIF-images show that the plume development 5–50 μs after the breakdown pulse is fairly reproducible shot-to-shot, although the plume becomes increasingly stochastic on longer timescales, 100–500 μs. The stochastic behavior of the plume is quantified using probability distributions of the loci of the plume boundary. Analysis of the single-shot images indicates that the mixing of the plume with ambient gas on sub-ms time scale is insignificant. The induced flow velocity in the plume is fairly low, up to 30 m s –1 , suggesting that laser breakdowns are ineffective for mixing enhancement in high speed flows. The ensemble-averaged PLIF images indicate the evolution of the plume from an initially elongated shape to near-spherical to toroidal shape, with a subsequent radial expansion and formation of an axial jet in the center. Temperature distributions in the plume in air are obtained from the NO PLIF images, using two rotational transitions in the NO(X, v' = 0 → A, v'' = 0) band, J'' = 6.5 and 12.5 of the Q R 12 + Q 2 branch. The results indicate that the temperature in the plume remains high, above 1000 K, for approximately 100 μs, after which it decays gradually, to below 500 K at 500 μs. The residual NO fraction in the plume is ~0.1%, indicating that repetitive laser-assisted ignition may result in significant NO-generation. Furthermore, these measured temperature and velocity distributions can be used for detailed validation of kinetic models of laser-induced breakdown and assessment of their predictive capability.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS2001

Spatial scale of motion segmentation from speed cues

For the accurate perception of multiple, potentially overlapping, surfaces or objects, the visual system must distinguish different local motion vectors and selectively integrate similar motion vectors over space to segment the retinal image properly. We recently showed that large differences in speed are required to yield a percept of motion transparency. In the present study, to investigate the spatial scale of motion segmentation from speed cues alone, we measured the speed-segmentation threshold (the minimum speed difference required for 75% performance accuracy) for 'corrugated' random-dot patterns, i.e. patterns in which dots with two different speeds were alternately placed in adjacent bars of variable width. In a first experiment, we found that, at large bar widths, a smaller speed difference was required to segment and perceive the corrugated pattern of moving dots, while at small bar-widths, a larger speed difference was required to segment the two speeds and perceive two transparent surfaces of moving dots. Both the perceptual and segmentation performance transitions occurred at a bar width of around 0.4 degrees. In a second experiment, speed-segmentation thresholds were found to increase sharply when dots with different speeds were paired within a local pooling area. The critical pairing distance was about 0.2 degrees in the fovea and increased linearly with stimulus eccentricity. However, across the range of eccentricities tested (up to 15 degrees ), the critical pairing distance did not change much and remained close to the receptive field size of neurons within the primate primary visual cortex. In a third experiment, increasing dot density changed the relationship between speed-segmentation thresholds and bar width. Thresholds decreased for large bar widths, but increased for small bar widths. All of these results are well fit by a simple stochastic model, which estimates the probabilities of having identical or different motion vectors within a local pooling area whose size is the same as that of primate V1 neurons. Altogether, these results demonstrate that speed-based segmentation can function well, even at small spatial scales (i.e. high-spatial frequencies of spatial corrugation) and thereby emphasizes the critical role of a local pooling process early in the cortical motion-processing pathway.

NASA Discipline Neuroscience↗

DOE OSTI2024

Learning stochastic dynamics and predicting emergent behavior using transformers

We show that a neural network originally designed for language processing can learn the dynamical rules of a stochastic system by observation of a single dynamical trajectory of the system, and can accurately predict its emergent behavior under conditions not observed during training. We consider a lattice model of active matter undergoing continuous-time Monte Carlo dynamics, simulated at a density at which its steady state comprises small, dispersed clusters. We train a neural network called a transformer on a single trajectory of the model. The transformer, which we show has the capacity to represent dynamical rules that are numerous and nonlocal, learns that the dynamics of this model consists of a small number of processes. Forward-propagated trajectories of the trained transformer, at densities not encountered during training, exhibit motility-induced phase separation and so predict the existence of a nonequilibrium phase transition. Transformers have the flexibility to learn dynamical rules from observation without explicit enumeration of rates or coarse-graining of configuration space, and so the procedure used here can be applied to a wide range of physical systems, including those with large and complex dynamical generators.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Anharmonic lattice dynamics and superionic transition in AgCrSe 2

Intrinsically low lattice thermal conductivity ( κ l a t ) in superionic conductors is of great interest for energy conversion applications in thermoelectrics. Yet, the complex atomic dynamics leading to superionicity and ultralow thermal conductivity remain poorly understood. Here, we report a comprehensive study of the lattice dynamics and superionic diffusion in A g C r S e 2 from energy- and momentum-resolved neutron and X-ray scattering techniques, combined with first-principles calculations. Our results settle unresolved questions about the lattice dynamics and thermal conduction mechanism in A g C r S e 2 . We find that the heat-carrying long-wavelength transverse acoustic (TA) phonons coexist with the ultrafast diffusion of Ag ions in the superionic phase, while the short-wavelength nondispersive TA phonons break down. Strong scattering of phonon quasiparticles by anharmonicity and Ag disorder are the origin of intrinsically low κ l a t . The breakdown of short-wavelength TA phonons is directly related to the Ag diffusion, with the vibrational spectral weight associated to Ag oscillations evolving into stochastic decaying fluctuations. Furthermore, the origin of fast ionic diffusion is shown to arise from extended flat basins in the energy landscape and collective hopping behavior facilitated by strong repulsion between Ag ions. These results provide fundamental insights into the complex atomic dynamics of superionic conductors.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Gravitational Waves as a Source of Large-Scale White Noise: New Constraints

A stochastic gravitational wave (GW) background sources a shear in the flow of cosmic fluid which, through non-linear mode coupling, generates large-scale white noise (LSWN) in the kurvature density field. Building on the LSWN framework of our previous work, we derive the amplitude of this GW-induced LSWN and translate the observational non-detection of LSWN into bounds on the production redshift and density of gravity waves. In particular, a minimal constraint on gravity waves with $z=0$ density parameter $Ω_\mathrm{GW0}^*$ in frequency band $f_*$ generated at redshift $z_*$ must satisfy ${z_*}^2\,Ω_\mathrm{GW0}^*<5\times10^7\,(f_*/\mathrm{nHz})^{3/2}$. This, for example, precludes the gravity waves recently detected by pulsar timing arrays \cite{NANOGrav:2023hvm} from being present before $z_*\sim10^8$, long after the quark hadron phase transition. While orders of magnitude stronger than other constraints on gravity waves, this is a minimal LSWN constraint as realistic modeling of early universe gravity wave production, including the granularity of the gravity-wave sources and the LSWN produced by the associated acoustic waves would probably tighten this constraint by orders of magnitude.

Barenboim, Gabriela [Valencia U., IFIC; Valencia U↗

DOE OSTI2023

Unveiling the catalytic mechanism of GTP hydrolysis in microtubules

Microtubules (MTs) are large cytoskeletal polymers, composed of αβ-tubulin heterodimers, capable of stochastically converting from polymerizing to depolymerizing states and vice versa. Depolymerization is coupled with hydrolysis of guanosine triphosphate (GTP) within β-tubulin. Hydrolysis is favored in the MT lattice compared to a free heterodimer with an experimentally observed rate increase of 500- to 700-fold, corresponding to an energetic barrier lowering of 3.8 to 4.0 kcal/mol. Mutagenesis studies have implicated α-tubulin residues, α:E254 and α:D251, as catalytic residues completing the β-tubulin active site of the lower heterodimer in the MT lattice. The mechanism for GTP hydrolysis in the free heterodimer, however, is not understood. Additionally, there has been debate concerning whether the GTP-state lattice is expanded or compacted relative to the GDP state and whether a “compacted” GDP-state lattice is required for hydrolysis. In this work, extensive quantum mechanics/molecular mechanics simulations with transition-tempered metadynamics free-energy sampling of compacted and expanded interdimer complexes, as well as a free heterodimer, have been carried out to provide clear insight into the GTP hydrolysis mechanism. α:E254 was found to be the catalytic residue in a compacted lattice, while in the expanded lattice, disruption of a key salt bridge interaction renders α:E254 less effective. The simulations reveal a barrier decrease of 3.8 ± 0.5 kcal/mol for the compacted lattice compared to a free heterodimer, in good agreement with experimental kinetic measurements. Additionally, the expanded lattice barrier was found to be 6.3 ± 0.5 kcal/mol higher than compacted, demonstrating that GTP hydrolysis is variable with lattice state and slower at the MT tip.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Effect of Boundary Layer Character on Stochastic Rotor Blade Vortex Shedding Noise

This work illustrates the effect of a rotor blade’s boundary layer on the broadband LBL-VS self-noise emitted from an optimum hovering rotor through experimental and multi-fidelity computational studies. Blade surface roughness effects associated with different manufacturing techniques and the effect of adding a boundary layer trip were shown to decrease LBL-VS noise by upwards of 30 dB at the frequency of maximum emission with a slight penalty in aerodynamic performance when compared with smooth rotor blades. Low-fidelity 2-D viscous flow analysis verified the presence of laminar separation bubbles on the rotor blades which are responsible for LBL-VS noise. Three high-fidelity lattice-Boltzmann simulations were conducted with different wall-functions to predict the boundary layer character correspondent to their experimental counterpart and the resultant presence or absence of LBL-VS noise. Excellent aerodynamic and aeroacoustic agreement was seen between the lattice-Boltzmann simulations and the experimental data for the cases with surface roughness and the boundary layer trip, with the broadband noise results from the simulation with fully turbulent wall-functions diverging from the experimental results above 5 kHz. The transitional wall-function simulation which emulated the smooth experimental blades underpredicted thrust by 14% and broadband noise by a minimum of 10 dB with an accurately predicted broadband noise trend.

Christopher S Thurman↗

NASA NTRS1987

Stochastic estimation of organized structures in turbulent channel flow

Linear stochastic estimation is used to approximate the conditional vector fields associated with high Reynolds stress producing events in numerically simulated turbulent channel flow. Joint probability density distributions of u-v are presented for y(+) between 1.35 and 180, and at each position the u-v values that make the greatest contributions to the average uv3 are used to define conditional ejection- and sweep-type events. In the y-z plane the conditional fields appear to be pairs of counter-rotating vortices. When the conditional event defined by the weighted probability density function is specified at a point close to the wall, the spacing and size of these eddies are consistent with the accepted wall streak spacing. As this point moves outwards, the eddy size increases significantly. An abrupt change in the flow angle occurs in the buffer layer and may indicate transition from streamwise oriented wall layer structures to hairpin vortices characterizing the outer layer.

Moin, P.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Multifunctional electrochemical memory stabilized by phase coexistence

Our growing computing needs, especially in applications that heavily rely on artificial intelligence (AI), motivate a search for new components that could substantially augment the performance of general-purpose digital computers. Beyond ON/OFF switching, new components with linear multistate analog resistive tuning, nonlinear volatile switching, spiking, oscillatory, stochastic and other complex functionalities could enable highly efficient neuromorphic computing schemes for AI information processing. Compared to the extreme multifunctionality of biological neurons, realizing all the above characteristics in a single, scalable analog component remains a grand challenge. Here we investigate electrochemical gating combined with localized thermal activation to program and switch a single, vertically integrated and dimensionally scaled electrothermal chemical random access memory (ETCRAM) with a channel and reservoir composed of phase-separated vanadium oxide. Closely related to electrochemical RAM (ECRAM), ETCRAM uses an integrated gate-heater electrode to overcome kinetic barriers that help retain states at ambient temperatures. In addition to synapse-like stable and programmable analog resistance states arising from redox-tunable phase coexistence, a single component exhibits neuron-like nonlinear conductance switching with a tunable threshold and self-driven dynamics owing to the thermally driven metal-insulator phase transition in vanadium dioxide. More broadly, we demonstrate that electrochemically stabilized phase coexistence could unlock analog electronics with novel functionality, stability, reconfigurability, and scalability.

Oh, Sangheon [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Liver↗

DOE OSTI2019

Jamming and tiling in fragmentation of rectangles

We investigate a stochastic process where a rectangle breaks into smaller rectangles through a series of horizontal and vertical fragmentation events. We focus on the case where both the vertical size and the horizontal size of a rectangle are discrete variables. Because of this constraint, the system reaches a jammed state where all rectangles are sticks, that is, rectangles with minimal width. Sticks are frozen as they cannot break any further. The average number of sticks in the jammed state, S , grows as S ≃ A /√2π ln A with rectangle area A in the large-area limit, and remarkably, this behavior is independent of the aspect ratio. The distribution of stick length has a power-law tail, and further, its moments are characterized by a nonlinear spectrum of scaling exponents. Here, we also study an asymmetric breakage process where vertical and horizontal fragmentation events are realized with different probabilities. In this case, there is a phase transition between a weakly asymmetric phase where the length distribution is independent of system size and a strongly asymmetric phase where this distribution depends on system size.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Large-scale white noise and cosmology

The generation of white noise on large scales is a generic property of the dynamics of physical systems described by local nonlinear partial differential equations. Nonlinearities prevent the small-scale dynamics from being erased by smoothing. Unresolved small-scale dynamics act as an uncorrelated (white or Poissonian) noise (seemingly stochastic but actually deterministic) contribution to large-scale dynamics. This white noise exists even when the dynamics is very nearly linear. In cases where the power spectrum is sub-Poissonian on large scales, this noise will dominate on the largest scale power no matter the amplitude of the inhomogeneities. Such is the case in the standard model of cosmology, where the primordial density power spectrum is expected to have an almost Harrison-Zel’dovich, P [ k ] ∼ k , spectrum on a much broader range of scales than can be observed. Even though linear gravitational evolution dominates nonlinear corrections by a factor of ∼ 10 5 , the nonobservation of white noise on the Hubble scale precludes the extrapolation of this power law below the comoving 1 pc scale. More generally, observation or nonobservation of large-scale white noise provides a powerful probe of the Universe on very small scales in the early Universe. Gravitational radiation, phase transitions, vorticity, and running of the spectral index are all phenomena that can be probed with large-scale white noise. Large-scale white noise is a nonoptional feature of all cosmological models but one which has not heretofore been appreciated.

Barenboim, Gabriela [Valencia U., IFIC; Valencia U↗

DOE OSTI2025

Conveyor-belt magneto-optical trapping of molecules

Abstract Laser cooling is used to produce ultracold atoms and molecules for quantum science and precision measurement applications. Molecules are more challenging to cool than atoms due to their vibrational and rotational internal degrees of freedom. Molecular rotations lead to the use of type-II transitions ( F ⩾ F ′ ) for magneto-optical trapping (MOT). When typical red detuned light frequencies are applied to these transitions, sub-Doppler heating is induced, resulting in higher temperatures and larger molecular cloud sizes than realized with the type-I MOTs most often used with atoms. To improve type-II MOTs, Jarvis et al (2018 Phys. Rev. Lett. 120 083201) proposed a blue-detuned MOT to be applied after initial cooling and capture with a red-detuned MOT. This was successfully implemented (Burau et al 2023 Phys. Rev. Lett. 130 193401; Jorapur et al 2024 Phys. Rev. Lett. 132 163403; Li et al 2024 Phys. Rev. Lett. 132 233402), realizing colder and denser molecular samples. Very recently, Hallas et al (2024 arXiv:2404.03636) demonstrated a blue-detuned MOT with a ‘1+2’ configuration that resulted in even stronger compression of the molecular cloud. Here, we describe and characterize theoretically the conveyor-belt mechanism that underlies this observed enhanced compression. We perform numerical simulations of the conveyor-belt mechanism using both stochastic Schrödinger equation and optical Bloch equation approaches. We investigate the conveyor-belt MOT characteristics in relation to laser parameters, g -factors and the structure of the molecule, and find that conveyor-belt trapping should be applicable to a wide range of laser-coolable molecules.

Li, Grace K. (ORCID:0000000277223355)↗

NASA NTRS2009

Proceedings of the First NASA Formal Methods Symposium

Topics covered include: Model Checking - My 27-Year Quest to Overcome the State Explosion Problem; Applying Formal Methods to NASA Projects: Transition from Research to Practice; TLA+: Whence, Wherefore, and Whither; Formal Methods Applications in Air Transportation; Theorem Proving in Intel Hardware Design; Building a Formal Model of a Human-Interactive System: Insights into the Integration of Formal Methods and Human Factors Engineering; Model Checking for Autonomic Systems Specified with ASSL; A Game-Theoretic Approach to Branching Time Abstract-Check-Refine Process; Software Model Checking Without Source Code; Generalized Abstract Symbolic Summaries; A Comparative Study of Randomized Constraint Solvers for Random-Symbolic Testing; Component-Oriented Behavior Extraction for Autonomic System Design; Automated Verification of Design Patterns with LePUS3; A Module Language for Typing by Contracts; From Goal-Oriented Requirements to Event-B Specifications; Introduction of Virtualization Technology to Multi-Process Model Checking; Comparing Techniques for Certified Static Analysis; Towards a Framework for Generating Tests to Satisfy Complex Code Coverage in Java Pathfinder; jFuzz: A Concolic Whitebox Fuzzer for Java; Machine-Checkable Timed CSP; Stochastic Formal Correctness of Numerical Algorithms; Deductive Verification of Cryptographic Software; Coloured Petri Net Refinement Specification and Correctness Proof with Coq; Modeling Guidelines for Code Generation in the Railway Signaling Context; Tactical Synthesis Of Efficient Global Search Algorithms; Towards Co-Engineering Communicating Autonomous Cyber-Physical Systems; and Formal Methods for Automated Diagnosis of Autosub 6000.

Denney, Ewen↗

DOE OSTI2021

Transportation Hub Infrastructure Expansion: Decision Support Under Uncertainty

The Athena project (www.athena-mobility.org) has worked to investigate the relationship between the Dallas-Fort Worth Airport (DFW) and the greater Dallas area in order to better understand and therefore better inform future decision-making regarding the critical infrastructure that influence mobility between the airport and the city. Through this work, infrastructure related to curbside pickup and drop-off, parking, public transit, and the road network congestion were identified as critical to the operation of the DFW transportation hub. The infrastructure analysis and expansion aspect of the Athena project is focused on the restructuring of the CTA curb as a hierarchical curb and the building or repurposing of parking infrastructure as the interplay between these two areas. Many sources of uncertainty exist that may impact future airport and transportation hub operations, such as passenger volume growth, population demographic changes over time, electric vehicle (EV) adoption rates, and autonomous vehicle (AV) adoption rates. Due to these sources of uncertainty, we have selected for our research a modeling framework that can capture various types of uncertainty and hedge against those uncertainties in the optimization process. We analyze road network and curb congestion, the rise of transportation networking companies, trends in parking usage, existing policies around this infrastructure, airport revenue streams, and other contributing factors to enable infrastructure decision making with less uncertainty. To accomplish this wholistic analysis, we have developed a novel multi-stage, multi-period stochastic optimization model which considers the airport's decisions from 2025-2045 under different possible future macro trajectories and day-to-day variations in operational conditions captured as "annual representation of operations" scenarios with respective probabilities. This model has also been designed to leverage the outputs of various efforts under the Athena project to create a combined decision framework for infrastructure decisions. These various efforts include the route optimization model, the ASPIRES simulation, the mode choice model, and the SUMO traffic simulation. Our computational experiments of this system at scale have resulted in a working version of our infrastructure model which enables the explicit representation and consideration of various sources of uncertainty in the decision process to enable robust, flexible decision-making. This model has been effectively run on NREL's HPC system, Eagle, with large numbers of stochastic scenarios and shows promise as a scalable tool for robust consideration of uncertainties in airport planning. We have tested our model using 30,240 operational circumstances in total, resulting in a problem with more 200 million variables. This model was solved in several different configurations, and a workflow to simulate the performance of the infrastructure model results was developed and deployed. In general, our results indicate that a combination of remote parking, remote curb infrastructure, and dynamic pricing can generate revenue, reduce emissions, accommodate emerging technologies such as AVs and EVs, and manage airport passenger growth over time. We note the success of the proposed strategy depends on the data collection and forecasting abilities of DFW. We have also seen that the AV adoption by TNCs might necessitate larger amounts of remote curb. The results of this work inform strategies for airport infrastructure decision making, as well as demonstrate the value of an adaptable model, but also indicate that there are avenues remaining where further research would be of value.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2022

Coupling Warm Rain With an Eddy Diffusivity/Mass Flux Parameterization: 1. Model Description and Validation

A new version of the stochastic multiplume Jet Propulsion Laboratory Eddy-Diffusivity/Mass-Flux (JPL-EDMF) parameterization which consistently couples the simplified Khairoutdinov and Kogan (2000), https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2000)128<0229:ANCPPI>2.0.CO;2, warm phase cloud microphysical parameterization with the parameterization of cloud macrophysical and subgrid scale dynamical processes is described. The new parameterization combines the EDMF approach with an assumed shape of a joint probability density function of thermodynamic and kinematic variables which provide the basis for the computation of all parameterized processes. As far as we are aware this is the first attempt to consistently couple all of these parameterized processes in the EDMF framework. This paper is part one of a two paper series. Here, the JPL-EDMF parameterization is described and benchmark simulations of precipitating stratocumulus and cumulus convection are performed in a single-column-model framework. The parameterization results compare favorably to the reference large-eddy-simulation results. In the second part (Smalley et al., 2022, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021MS002729) the JPL-EDMF parameterization is validated for a wide range of observation-based scenarios covering the continuous transition from subtropical stratocumulus to cumulus convection derived from global reanalysis, and parameterization uncertainties are studied in detail.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Tutorial: Langevin Dynamics methods for aerosol particle trajectory simulations and collision rate constant modeling

The Langevin Dynamics (LD) method (also known in the literature as Brownian Dynamics) is routinely used to simulate aerosol particle trajectories for transport rate constant calculations as well as to understand aerosol particle transport in internal and external fluid flows. This tutorial intends to explain the methodological details of setting up a LD simulation of a population of aerosol particles and to deduce rate constants from an ensemble of classical trajectories. We discuss the applicability and limitations of the translational Langevin equation to model the combined stochastic and deterministic motion of particles in fields of force or fluid flow. The drag force and stochastic “diffusion” force terms that appear in the Langevin equation are discussed elaborately, along with a summary of common forces relevant to aerosol systems (electrostatic, gravity, van der Waals, …); a commonly used first order and a fourth order Runge-Kutta time stepping schemes for linear stochastic ordinary differential equations are presented. A MATLAB® implementation of a LD code for simulating particle settling under gravity using the first order scheme is included for illustration. Scaling analysis of aerosol transport processes and the selection of timestep and domain size for trajectory simulations are demonstrated through two specific aerosol processes: particle diffusion charging and coagulation. Fortran® implementations of the first order and fourth order time-stepping schemes are included for simulating the 3D motion of a particle in a periodic domain. Lastly, potential applications and caveats to the usage of LD are included as a summary.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

NASA NTRS2017

Role of Forcing Uncertainty and Background Model Error Characterization in Snow Data Assimilation

Accurate specification of the model error covariances in data assimilation systems is a challenging issue. Ensemble land data assimilation methods rely on stochastic perturbations of input forcing and model prognostic fields for developing representations of input model error covariances. This article examines the limitations of using a single forcing dataset for specifying forcing uncertainty inputs for assimilating snow depth retrievals. Using an idealized data assimilation experiment, the article demonstrates that the use of hybrid forcing input strategies (either through the use of an ensemble of forcing products or through the added use of the forcing climatology) provide a better characterization of the background model error, which leads to improved data assimilation results, especially during the snow accumulation and melt-time periods. The use of hybrid forcing ensembles is then employed for assimilating snow depth retrievals from the AMSR2 (Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2) instrument over two domains in the continental USA with different snow evolution characteristics. Over a region near the Great Lakes, where the snow evolution tends to be ephemeral, the use of hybrid forcing ensembles provides significant improvements relative to the use of a single forcing dataset. Over the Colorado headwaters characterized by large snow accumulation, the impact of using the forcing ensemble is less prominent and is largely limited to the snow transition time periods. The results of the article demonstrate that improving the background model error through the use of a forcing ensemble enables the assimilation system to better incorporate the observational information.

assimilation↗