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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 289 records · Page 16
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Microbiome Aggregated Traits and Assembly Are More Sensitive to Soil Management than Diversity

How soil is managed, particularly for agriculture, exerts stresses upon soil microbiomes, resulting in altered community structures and functional states. Understanding how soil microbiomes respond to combined stresses is important for predicting system performance under different land use scenarios, aids in identification of the most environmentally benign managements, and provides insight into how system function can be recovered in degraded soils. We use a long-established field experiment to study the effects of combined chronic (press) disturbance of the magnitude of organic carbon inputs with acute (pulse) effects of physical disturbance by tillage and chemical disturbance due to inorganic fertilization and pesticide application. We show that because of the variety of ways it can be assessed, biodiversity—here based on microbial small subunit rRNA gene phylotypes—does not provide a consistent view of community change. In contrast, aggregated traits associated with soil microbiomes indicate general loss of function, measured as a reduction of average genome lengths, associated with chronic reduction of organic inputs in arable or bare fallow soils and altered growth strategies associated with rRNA operon copy number in prokaryotes, as well as a switch to pathogenicity in fungal communities. In addition, pulse disturbance by soil tillage is associated with an increased influence of stochastic processes upon prokaryote community assembly, but fungicide used in arable soils results in niche assembly of fungal communities compared to untilled grassland. Overall, bacteria, archaea, and fungi do not share a common response to land management change, and estimates of biodiversity do not capture important facets of community adaptation to stresses adequately.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Stochastic parametric skeletal dosimetry model for humans: General approach and application to active marrow exposure from bone-seeking beta-particle emitters

The objective of this study is to develop a skeleton model for assessing active marrow dose from bone-seeking beta-emitting radionuclides. This article explains the modeling methodology which accounts for individual variability of the macro- and microstructure of bone tissue. Bone sites with active hematopoiesis are assessed by dividing them into small segments described by simple geometric shapes. Spongiosa, which fills the segments, is modeled as an isotropic three-dimensional grid (framework) of rod-like trabeculae that “run through” the bone marrow. Randomized multiple framework deformations are simulated by changing the positions of the grid nodes and the thickness of the rods. Model grid parameters are selected in accordance with the parameters of spongiosa microstructures taken from the published papers. Stochastic modeling of radiation transport in heterogeneous media simulating the distribution of bone tissue and marrow in each of the segments is performed by Monte Carlo methods. Model output for the human femur at different ages is provided as an example. The uncertainty of dosimetric characteristics associated with individual variability of bone structure was evaluated. An advantage of this methodology for the calculation of doses absorbed in the marrow from bone-seeking radionuclides is that it does not require additional studies of autopsy material. The biokinetic model results will be used in the future to calculate individual doses to members of a cohort exposed to 89,90 Sr from liquid radioactive waste discharged to the Techa River by the Mayak Production Association in 1949–1956. Further study of these unique cohorts provides an opportunity to gain more in-depth knowledge about the effects of chronic radiation on the hematopoietic system. In addition, the proposed model can be used to assess the doses to active marrow under any other scenarios of 90 Sr and 89 Sr intake to humans.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2020

Adaptive Stress Testing: Finding Likely Failure Events with Reinforcement Learning

Finding the most likely path to a set of failure states is important to the analysis of safety-critical systems that operate over a sequence of time steps, such as aircraft collision avoidance systems and autonomous cars. In many applications such as autonomous driving, failures cannot be completely eliminated due to the complex stochastic environment in which the system operates.As a result, safety validation is not only concerned about whether a failure can occur, but also discovering which failures are most likely to occur. This article presents adaptive stress testing (AST), a framework for finding the most likely path to a failure event in simulation. We consider a general black box setting for partially observable and continuous-valued systems operating in an environment with stochastic disturbances. We formulate the problem as a Markov decision process and use reinforcement learning to optimize it. The approach is simulation-based and does not require internal knowledge of the system, making it suitable for black-box testing of large systems. We present different formulations depending on whether the state is fully observable or partially observable. In the latter case, we present a modified Monte Carlo tree search algorithm that only requires access to the pseudorandom number generator of the simulator to overcome partial observability. We also present an extension of the framework, called differential adaptive stress testing (DAST), that can find failures that occur in one system but not in another. This type of differential analysis is useful in applications such as regression testing, where we are concerned with finding areas of relative weakness compared to a baseline. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach on an aircraft collision avoidance application, where a prototype aircraft collision avoidance system is stress tested to find the most likely scenarios of near mid-air collision.

Verification and Validation↗
DOE OSTI2021

Fluctuation–dissipation relation for a quantum Brownian oscillator in a parametrically squeezed thermal field

In this paper we study the nonequilibrium evolution of a quantum Brownian oscillator, modeling the internal degree of freedom of a harmonic atom or an Unruh–DeWitt detector, coupled to a nonequilibrium and nonstationary quantum field bath and inquire whether a fluctuation–dissipation relation (FDR) can exist after/if it approaches equilibration. This is a nontrivial issue because a squeezed field bath cannot reach equilibration and yet, as this work shows, the system oscillator indeed can, which is a necessary condition for FDRs. We discuss three different settings: (A) The bath field essentially remains in a squeezed thermal state throughout, whose squeeze parameter is a mode- and time-independent constant. This situation is often encountered in quantum optics and quantum thermodynamics. (B) The bath field is initially in a thermal state, but is subjected to a parametric process leading to mode- and time-dependent squeezing. This scenario is encountered in cosmology and dynamical Casimir effects. The squeezing in the bath in both types of processes will affect the oscillator’s nonequilibrium evolution. We show that at late times it approaches equilibration and this stationarity condition warrants the existence of a FDR. The trait of squeezing is marked by the oscillator’s effective equilibrium temperature, and the proportionality factor in the FDR is only related to the stationary component of the noise kernel of the bath field. Setting (C) is more subtle: A finite system–bath coupling strength can set the oscillator in a squeezed state even though the bath field is stationary and does not engage in any parametric process. The squeezing of the system in this case is in general time-dependent but becomes constant when the internal dynamics is fully relaxed. We begin with comments on the broad range of physical processes involving squeezed thermal baths and end with some remarks on the significance of FDRs in capturing the essence of quantum backreaction in nonequilibrium and stochastic systems.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

Periodic Gamma-Ray Modulation of the Blazar PG 1553+113 Confirmed by Fermi-LAT and Multiwavelength Observations

A 2.1 yr periodic oscillation of the gamma-ray flux from the blazar PG 1553+113 has previously been tentatively identified in ∼7 yr of data from the Fermi Large Area Telescope. After 15 yr of Fermi sky-survey observations, doubling the total time range, we report >7 cycle gamma-ray modulation with an estimated significance of 4σ against stochastic red noise. Independent determinations of oscillation period and phase in the earlier and the new data are in close agreement (chance probability <0.01). Pulse timing over the full light curve is also consistent with a coherent periodicity. Multiwavelength new data from Swift X-Ray Telescope, Burst Alert Telescope, and UVOT, and from KAIT, Catalina Sky Survey, All-Sky Automated Survey for Supernovae, and Owens Valley Radio Observatory ground-based observatories as well as archival Rossi X-Ray Timing Explorer satellite-All Sky Monitor data, published optical data of Tuorla, and optical historical Harvard plates data are included in our work. Optical and radio light curves show clear correlations with the gamma-ray modulation, possibly with a nonconstant time lag for the radio flux. We interpret the gamma-ray periodicity as possibly arising from a pulsational accretion flow in a sub-parsec binary supermassive black hole system of elevated mass ratio, with orbital modulation of the supplied material and energy in the jet. Other astrophysical scenarios introduced include instabilities, disk and jet precession, rotation or nutation, and perturbations by massive stars or intermediate-mass black holes in polar orbit.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Universal CMB 𝐵-mode spectrum from early causal tensor sources

Many early Universe scenarios predict postinflationary tensor perturbations from causality-limited, subhorizon sources. While the microphysical details may be different, as long as these sources are bounded in duration and correlation length, their tensor power spectra exhibit a universal scaling behavior at small wave number: 𝒫 ℎ ⁡(𝑘)∝𝑘 3 , corresponding to white noise on superhorizon scales at the time of production. If these early causal tensor sources (ECTs) exclusively produce gravitational waves before redshift 𝑧 ∼10 5 , this scaling is realized on all of the scales observed in the CMB, and thus yields a universal multipole distribution for the 𝐵-mode angular power spectrum. Unlike the scale-invariant distributions of inflationary 𝐵 modes, ECTs generically predict enhanced power on small scales and suppressed power on large scales, which allows these source classes to be distinguished given measurements over a sufficient range of angular scales. In this paper, we introduce a unified framework for characterizing ECTs and demonstrate how their universal infrared scaling manifests in low-frequency observables, including CMB 𝐵 modes and stochastic gravitational wave spectral densities. We illustrate this mapping with representative case studies of this universality class involving first-order phase transitions, topological defects, and enhanced scalar perturbations, which source tensor modes at second order in perturbation theory.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Using Energy Storage-Based Grid Forming Inverters for Operational Reserve in Hybrid Diesel Microgrids

In remote arctic communities, where access to a bulk electrical grid interconnection is not available, the implementation of islanded microgrids has been the most viable way to produce and distribute electricity services to their inhabitants. Historically, these islanded grids have relied primarily on diesel generators or hydropower resources to supply the baseload. However, this practice can result in increased expense due to the high costs associated with fuel transportation and the significant amounts of on-site storage necessary when fuel transportation is unavailable during winter months. In order to mitigate this problem, arctic microgrids have started to transition to a hybrid-source operational mode by incorporating renewable energy sources that are inherently variable in nature, such as wind or solar. Due to their highly stochastic behavior, these hybrid-source islanded microgrids can pose potential issues related to power quality due to introduction of rapid net load fluctuations and inability of diesel generators to respond rapidly. In addition, non-firm stochastic sources can require significant idling diesel generator resources to serve as spinning reserves, which is inefficient and wasteful. This work studies the problems that may arise in the transient dynamics of a real-world hybrid diesel microgrid when subjected to a loss of wind generation. Moreover, this work proposes a transition from a diesel spinning reserve to a battery energy-storage system (BESS) operating reserve scheme. The study of the proposed transition is important in establishing the fundamental implication of transient dynamics and the potential benefits of integrating a BESS as a spinning reserve in terms of stability, frequency nadir, and transient voltage deviation. The methods to investigate and validate the transient dynamics relied on both electromagnetic simulation models of GFMIs and a commercially available GFMI in an experimental power hardware-in-the-loop setup. The simulation results showed that the proposed operating reserve scheme improves the power quality of the system in terms of voltage deviation and frequency nadir when the microgrid is subjected to a loss of wind generation scenario. Depending on the simulation cases, adding a GFMI reduced the frequency nadir between 65.3% and 86.7%. Moreover, the reductions in the voltage deviations improved between 3.6% and 23.0%. From these results it can be concluded that the integration of a GFMI can reduce the frequency nadir in a hybrid diesel microgrid, and in turn, reduce diesel consumption, which improves system reliability while reducing fuel expenses. Furthermore, the novelty of this work relies on the fact that the offline simulation results were validated using a power hardware-in-the-loop platform that incorporated a 100 kVA commercially available GFMI as the device under test.

Hernandez-Alvidrez, Javier↗
DOE OSTI2022

Coupling Warm Rain With an Eddy Diffusivity/Mass Flux Parameterization: 1. Model Description and Validation

A new version of the stochastic multiplume Jet Propulsion Laboratory Eddy-Diffusivity/Mass-Flux (JPL-EDMF) parameterization which consistently couples the simplified Khairoutdinov and Kogan (2000), https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2000)128<0229:ANCPPI>2.0.CO;2, warm phase cloud microphysical parameterization with the parameterization of cloud macrophysical and subgrid scale dynamical processes is described. The new parameterization combines the EDMF approach with an assumed shape of a joint probability density function of thermodynamic and kinematic variables which provide the basis for the computation of all parameterized processes. As far as we are aware this is the first attempt to consistently couple all of these parameterized processes in the EDMF framework. This paper is part one of a two paper series. Here, the JPL-EDMF parameterization is described and benchmark simulations of precipitating stratocumulus and cumulus convection are performed in a single-column-model framework. The parameterization results compare favorably to the reference large-eddy-simulation results. In the second part (Smalley et al., 2022, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021MS002729) the JPL-EDMF parameterization is validated for a wide range of observation-based scenarios covering the continuous transition from subtropical stratocumulus to cumulus convection derived from global reanalysis, and parameterization uncertainties are studied in detail.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2014

Improving Sensorimotor Adaptation Following Long Duration Space Flight by Enhancing Vestibular Information Transfer

Crewmember adapted to the microgravity state may need to egress the vehicle within a few minutes for safety and operational reasons after gravitational transitions. The transition from one sensorimotor state to another consists of two main mechanisms: strategic and plastic-adaptive and have been demonstrated in astronauts returning after long duration space flight. Strategic modifications represent "early adaptation" - immediate and transitory changes in control that are employed to deal with short-term changes in the environment. If these modifications are prolonged then plastic-adaptive changes are evoked that modify central nervous system function, automating new behavioral responses. More importantly, this longer term adaptive recovery mechanism was significantly associated with their strategic ability to recover on the first day after return to Earth G. We are developing a method based on stochastic resonance to enhance information transfer by improving the brain's ability to detect vestibular signals (Vestibular Stochastic Resonance, VSR) especially when combined with balance training exercises such as sensorimotor adaptability (SA) training for rapid improvement in functional skill, for standing and mobility. This countermeasure to improve detection of vestibular signals is a stimulus delivery system that is wearable/portable providing low imperceptible levels of white noise based binaural bipolar electrical stimulation of the vestibular system (stochastic vestibular stimulation). To determine efficacy of vestibular stimulation on physiological and perceptual responses during otolith-canal conflicts and dynamic perturbations we have conducted a series of studies: We have shown that imperceptible binaural bipolar electrical stimulation of the vestibular system across the mastoids enhances balance performance in the mediolateral (ML) plane while standing on an unstable surface. We have followed up on the previous study showing VSR stimulation improved balance performance in both ML and anteroposterior planes while stimulating in the ML axis only. We have shown the efficacy of VSR stimulations on enhancing physiological and perceptual responses of whole-body orientation during low frequency perturbations (0.1 Hz) on the ocular motor system using a variable radius centrifuge on both physiological (using eye movements) and perceptual responses (using a joystick) to track imposed oscillations. The variable radius centrifuge provides a selective tilting sensation that is detectable only by the otolith organs providing conflicting information from the canal organs of the vestibular system (intra-vestibular conflict). These results indicate that VSR can improve performance in sensory conflict scenarios like that experienced during space flight. We have showed the efficacy of VSR stimulation to improve balance and locomotor control on subjects exposed to continuous, sinusoidal lateral motion of the support surface while walking on a treadmill while viewing perceptually matched linear optic flow. We have shown the safety of short term continuous use of up to 4 hours of VSR stimulation and its efficacy in improving balance and locomotor function in Parkinson's Disease patients. This technique for improving vestibular signal detection may thus provide additional information to improve strategic abilities. We hypothesize that VSR stimulation will act synergistically with SA training to improve adaptability by increased utilization of vestibular information and therefore serve to optimize and personalize the SA countermeasure prescription. This forms the basis of its usefulness both as a training modality and further help in significantly reducing the number of days required to recover functional performance to preflight levels after long duration space flight.

Mulavara, A. P.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Sneutrino tribrid inflation, metastable cosmic strings and gravitational waves

Here, we present a successful realization of sneutrino tribrid inflation model based on a gauged U(1)_B-L extension of Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM). A single interaction term involving the B-L Higgs field and the right-handed neutrinos serves multiple purposes. These include the generation of heavy Majorana masses for the right-handed neutrinos to provide an explanation for the tiny neutrino masses via the seesaw mechanism, a realistic scenario for reheating and non-thermal leptogenesis with a reheat temperature as low as 10 6 GeV, and a successful realization of inflation with right-handed sneutrino as the inflaton. The matter parity which helps avoid rapid proton decay survives as a Z 2 subgroup of a U(1) R-symmetry. Depending on the choice of model parameters yields the following predicted range of the tensor to scalar ratio, 3 x 10 -11 ≲ r≲ 7x 10 -4 (6 x 10 -7 ≲ r ≲ 0.01), and the running of the scalar spectral index, -0.00022 ≲ dn_s/dln k ≲ -0.0026 (-0.00014 ≲ dn_s/dln k ≲ 0.005), along with the B-L breaking scale, 3 x 10 14 ≲ M/ GeV≲ 5 x 10 15 (6 x 10 15 ≲ M/ GeV≲ 2 x 10 16 ), calculated at the central value of the scalar spectral index, n_s =0.966, reported by Planck 2018. The possibility of realizing metastable cosmic strings in a grand unified theory setup is briefly discussed. The metastable cosmic string network admits string tension values in the range 10 -8 ≲ Gμ s ≲ 10 -6 , and predicts a stochastic gravitational wave background lying within the 2-σ bounds of the recent NANOGrav 12.5-yr data.

supersymmetry and cosmology↗
DOE OSTI2022

Efficient computation of N -point correlation functions in D dimensions

We present efficient algorithms for computing the N-point correlation functions (NPCFs) of random fields in arbitrary D-dimensional homogeneous and isotropic spaces. Such statistics appear throughout the physical sciences and provide a natural tool to describe stochastic processes. Typically, algorithms for computing the NPCF components have $\mathscr O$(n N ) complexity (for a dataset containing n particles); their application is thus computationally infeasible unless N is small. By projecting the statistic onto a suitably defined angular basis, we show that the estimators can be written in a separable form, with complexity $\mathscr O$(n 2 ) or $\mathscr O$(n g log n g ) if evaluated using a Fast Fourier Transform on a grid of size n g . Our decomposition is built upon the D-dimensional hyperspherical harmonics; these form a complete basis on the (D – 1) sphere and are intrinsically related to angular momentum operators. Concatenation of (N – 1) such harmonics gives states of definite combined angular momentum, forming a natural separable basis for the NPCF. As N and D grow, the number of basis components quickly becomes large, providing a practical limitation to this (and all other) approaches: However, the dimensionality is greatly reduced in the presence of symmetries; for example, isotropic correlation functions require only states of zero combined angular momentum. We provide a Julia package implementing our estimators and show how they can be applied to a variety of scenarios within cosmology and fluid dynamics. The efficiency of such estimators will allow higher-order correlators to become a standard tool in the analysis of random fields.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Fuel Fabrication Specification Impact Analysis for NBSR LEU Conversion

As part of a national initiative to enhance nuclear security and reduce proliferation risks, significant efforts have been undertaken by the National Nuclear Security Administration Material Management and Minimization Office of Reactor Conversion Program to convert U.S. high performance research reactors (USHPRRs) from the use of highly enriched uranium (HEU) to low-enriched uranium (LEU), including the National Bureau of Standards Reactor (NBSR). The current plan is to procure LEU fuel assemblies from commercial fabricators according to fuel specifications tailored for each USHPRR. The analysis conducted at Brookhaven National Laboratory was part of an effort to identify the sources of uncertainty in the fuel specifications that may impact the performance of the NBSR core after its conversion and, in particular, to assess the range of acceptable tolerance limits from the perspective of core safety and reactor performance. Using the stochastic neutronics code MCNP 6.2, the variations in important NBSR neutronics characteristics were analyzed as a function of the specification parameters independently and in combination. The important NBSR specification parameters analyzed were the fuel isotopic composition, the amount of impurity content in cladding, the fuel plate thickness, and the fuel element 235U mass loading. The range of variation of each specification parameter was based on the technical specification limit or available as-fabricated assay data and uncertainties. The NBSR neutronics characteristics selected for analysis were the reactor reactivity characteristics at equilibrium and the equilibrium fuel cycle length. Results show that with variations in the fabrication parameters of the as-fabricated U-10Mo fuel within the specification limitations, the excess reactivity of the NBSR LEU core remains well below the 15% Δk/k technical specification limit, and the shutdown margin is always significantly greater than the required 0.68% Δk/k. This ensures that the NBSR can be operated safely and reliably shut down for all analyzed cases within the specified fabrication limits after the LEU conversion. In the prototypic case, the fuel cycle length was 1.5 days longer than the targeted 38.5 days. In a credible worst-case scenario, where all low-reactivity parameters were combined, the fuel cycle length was reduced to 35.5 days, which is still considered manageable for reactor operations. Variations in cycle length are primarily driven by changes in 235U loading, with other parameters having secondary effects.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2016

Uncertainty Assessment of the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Climate Projections (NEX-GDDP) Dataset

The NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) dataset is comprised of downscaled climate projections that are derived from 21 General Circulation Model (GCM) runs conducted under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and across two of the four greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Each of the climate projections includes daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation for the periods from 1950 through 2100 and the spatial resolution is 0.25 degrees (approximately 25 km x 25 km). The GDDP dataset has received warm welcome from the science community in conducting studies of climate change impacts at local to regional scales, but a comprehensive evaluation of its uncertainties is still missing. In this study, we apply the Perfect Model Experiment framework (Dixon et al. 2016) to quantify the key sources of uncertainties from the observational baseline dataset, the downscaling algorithm, and some intrinsic assumptions (e.g., the stationary assumption) inherent to the statistical downscaling techniques. We developed a set of metrics to evaluate downscaling errors resulted from bias-correction ("quantile-mapping"), spatial disaggregation, as well as the temporal-spatial non-stationarity of climate variability. Our results highlight the spatial disaggregation (or interpolation) errors, which dominate the overall uncertainties of the GDDP dataset, especially over heterogeneous and complex terrains (e.g., mountains and coastal area). In comparison, the temporal errors in the GDDP dataset tend to be more constrained. Our results also indicate that the downscaled daily precipitation also has relatively larger uncertainties than the temperature fields, reflecting the rather stochastic nature of precipitation in space. Therefore, our results provide insights in improving statistical downscaling algorithms and products in the future.

climate projection↗
NASA NTRS2016

Uncertainty Assessment of the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Climate Projections (NEX-GDDP) Dataset

The NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) dataset is comprised of downscaled climate projections that are derived from 21 General Circulation Model (GCM) runs conducted under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and across two of the four greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Each of the climate projections includes daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation for the periods from 1950 through 2100 and the spatial resolution is 0.25 degrees (approximately 25 km by 25 km). The GDDP dataset has received warm welcome from the science community in conducting studies of climate change impacts at local to regional scales, but a comprehensive evaluation of its uncertainties is still missing. In this study, we apply the Perfect Model Experiment framework (Dixon et al. 2016) to quantify the key sources of uncertainties from the observational baseline dataset, the downscaling algorithm, and some intrinsic assumptions (e.g., the stationary assumption) inherent to the statistical downscaling techniques. We developed a set of metrics to evaluate downscaling errors resulted from bias-correction ("quantile-mapping"), spatial disaggregation, as well as the temporal-spatial non-stationarity of climate variability. Our results highlight the spatial disaggregation (or interpolation) errors, which dominate the overall uncertainties of the GDDP dataset, especially over heterogeneous and complex terrains (e.g., mountains and coastal area). In comparison, the temporal errors in the GDDP dataset tend to be more constrained. Our results also indicate that the downscaled daily precipitation also has relatively larger uncertainties than the temperature fields, reflecting the rather stochastic nature of precipitation in space. Therefore, our results provide insights in improving statistical downscaling algorithms and products in the future.

general circulation model (GCM)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Binding kinetics of harmonically confined random walkers

Diffusion-mediated binding of molecules under the influence of discrete spatially confining potentials is a commonly encountered scenario in systems subjected to explicit fields or implicit fields arising from tethering restraints. Here, in this work, we derive analytical expressions for the mean binding time of two random walkers geometrically confined by means of two harmonic potentials in one- and two-dimensional systems, which show excellent agreement with Brownian dynamics simulations. As a demonstration of its utility, we use this theory to maximize the communication speed in existing DNA walkers, obtaining quantitative agreement with previously reported experimental findings. The analytical expressions derived in this paper are broadly applicable to diverse systems, providing ways to characterize communication processes and optimize the rate of signal propagation for sensing and computing applications at the nanoscale.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Adaptive Recovery Model: Designing Systems for Testing Tracing and Vaccination to Support COVID-19 Recovery Planning.

This report documents a new approach to designing disease control policies that allocate scarce testing, contact tracing, and vaccination resources to better control community transmission of COVID19 or similar diseases. The Adaptive Recovery Model (ARM) combines a deterministic compartmental disease model with a stochastic network disease propagation model to enable us to simulate COVID-19 community spread through the lens of two complementary modeling motifs. ARM contact networks are derived from cell-phone location data that have been anonymized and interpreted as individual arrivals to specic public locations. Modeling disease spread over these networks allows us to identify locations within communities conducive to rapid disease spread. ARM applies this model- and data-derived abstractions of community transmission to evaluate the effectiveness of disease control measures including targeted social distancing, contact tracing, testing and vaccination. The architecture of ARM provides a unique capacity to help decision makers understand how best to deploy scarce testing, tracing and vaccination resources to minimize disease-spread potential in a community. This document details the novel mathematical formulations underlying ARM, presents a dynamical stability analysis of the deterministic model components, a sensitivity analysis of control parameters and network structure, and summarizes a process for deriving contact networks from cell-phone location data. An example use case steps through applying ARM to evaluate three targeted social distancing policies using Bernalillo County, New Mexico as an exemplar test locale. This step-by-step analysis demonstrates how ARM can be used to measure the relative performance of competing public health policies. Initial scenario tests of ARM shows that ARMs design focus on resource utilization rather than simple incidence prediction can provide decision makers with additional quantitative guidance for managing ongoing public health emergencies and planning future responses.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Mitigating Cascading Outages in Severe Weather Using Simulation-Based Optimization

Severe weather events can trigger cascading power outages and lead to significant losses. In this work, we investigate cascading outage mitigation under severe weather conditions. Given day-ahead weather forecasts and component failure models, we aim to identify a set of power lines that can be hardened to minimize the expected impact of potential cascading outages. Since the expected load shedding cannot be expressed as an explicit function of line hardening decisions and system states, we developed a cascading outage simulator to estimate the expected value of load shedding under various initial weather-related disruption scenarios generated using a weather forecast. To avoid massive enumeration of all possible combinations of line hardening decisions and reduce the simulation efforts, we employed an efficient simulation-based optimization approach that quickly identifies the (near) optimal line hardening decisions in the presence of both large simulation noises due to the highly variable initial disturbances and system states, and significant randomness in the subsequent cascades. Furthermore, the algorithm is also able to utilize parallel computing to dramatically reduce computation time to support decision making in preparation for severe weather conditions. We performed a case study on the Northeast Power Coordinating Council (NPCC) 140-bus system model to demonstrate that our approach can significantly improve power grid resilience to adverse weather events.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Life cycle assessment of railway ties fabricated with ductile cementitious composites and carbonation curing

This paper evaluates the lifecycle economic and environmental benefits of implementing CO 2 utilization and storage within advanced engineered cementitious composite (ECC) railway ties. Using CO 2 -treated ECC ties can yield lifecycle benefits primarily due to enhanced material properties – increased lifespan in this case – instead of due to the stored CO 2 that would otherwise enter the atmosphere. Sequestration-based policies such as 45Q in the United States would therefore not incentivize deployment of ECC railway ties, despite their considerable CO 2 avoidance opportunities. To reach these conclusions, cradle-to-grave lifecycle models were developed for ECC ties and conventional concrete ties and evaluated under 1000 possible use-phase scenarios. The models incorporated premature tie failures – consistent with real-world observations – that were used to study a wide range of non-linear impacts arising from the random nature of tie failures and replacements. The results show that past studies that neglected premature failure of ties may have underestimated lifecycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of concrete rail ties by nearly three times. Overall, servicing a track with ECC ties instead of concrete ties can reduce the lifecycle costs and GHG emissions by 12% and 21% respectively, based on median values of 1000 model run results. The expected benefits would be larger for entities like Amtrak that plan to expand concrete tie infrastructure despite significant challenges with premature concrete tie failures. Furthermore, the results of this study suggest that the lifespan of ECC ties needs to be at least 25% longer than concrete ties to achieve net lifecycle benefits. The possibility of this should be tested and confirmed under real-world conditions.

42 ENGINEERING↗