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At least 289 records · Page 16
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1975

A non-Gaussian model of continuous atmospheric turbulence proposed for use in aircraft design

This paper describes a statistical model proposed for use in forecasting vehicle responses to stationary continuous atmospheric turbulence. The model is suggested by the observed patchy character of turbulence, and differs from models now in use in that it does not assume the gust velocity to be a Gaussian process. For simplicity only the vertical gust component is considered here. The validity of the proposed model is established through comparison with published data. This comparison shows that the model is in better agreement with observed gust velocity probability distributions and exceedance frequencies than is the widely used Gaussian model, especially insofar as high velocity gusts are concerned. A method of applying the proposed model to the determination of vehicle responses is developed. It is shown that response probability distributions as well as exceedance frequencies can be derived from the eigenvalues and eigenfunction of certain unsymmetric kernels.

Reeves, P. M.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Load Balancing Using Time Series Analysis for Soft Real Time Systems with Statistically Periodic Loads

This thesis provides design and analysis of techniques for global load balancing on ensemble architectures running soft-real-time object-oriented applications with statistically periodic loads. It focuses on estimating the instantaneous average load over all the processing elements. The major contribution is the use of explicit stochastic process models for both the loading and the averaging itself. These models are exploited via statistical time-series analysis and Bayesian inference to provide improved average load estimates, and thus to facilitate global load balancing. This thesis explains the distributed algorithms used and provides some optimality results. It also describes the algorithms' implementation and gives performance results from simulation. These results show that the authors' techniques allow more accurate estimation of the global system loading, resulting in fewer object migrations than local methods. The authors' method is shown to provide superior performance, relative not only to static load-balancing schemes but also to many adaptive load-balancing methods. Results from a preliminary analysis of another system and from simulation with a synthetic load provide some evidence of more general applicability.

LOAD CONTROL↗
NASA NTRS1993

Load Balancing Using Time Series Analysis for Soft Real Time Systems with Statistically Periodic Loads

This thesis provides design and analysis of techniques for global load balancing on ensemble architectures running soft-real-time object-oriented applications with statistically periodic loads. It focuses on estimating the instantaneous average load over all the processing elements. The major contribution is the use of explicit stochastic process models for both the loading and the averaging itself. These models are exploited via statistical time-series analysis and Bayesian inference to provide improved average load estimates, and thus to facilitate global load balancing. This thesis explains the distributed algorithms used and provides some optimality results. It also describes the algorithms' implementation and gives performance results from simulation. These results show that our techniques allow more accurate estimation of the global system load ing, resulting in fewer object migration than local methods. Our method is shown to provide superior performance, relative not only to static load-balancing schemes but also to many adaptive methods.

REAL TIME↗
NASA NTRS1989

Integrated flight/propulsion control system design based on a decentralized, hierarchical approach

A sample integrated flight/propulsion control system design is presented for the piloted longitiudinal landing task with a modern, statistically unstable fighter aircraft. The design procedure is summarized, the vehicle model used in the sample study is described, and the procedure for partitioning the integrated system is presented along with a description of the subsystems. The high-level airframe performance specifications and control design are presented and the control performance is evaluated. The generation of the low-level (engine) subsystem specifications from the airframe requirements are discussed, and the engine performance specifications are presented along with the subsystem control design. A compensator to accommodate the influence of airframe outputs on the engine subsystem is also considered. Finally, the entire closed loop system performance and stability characteristics are examined.

Mattern, Duane↗
NASA NTRS1989

Integrated flight/propulsion control system design based on a decentralized, hierarchical approach

A sample integrated flight/propulsion control system design is presented for the piloted longitudinal landing task with a modern, statistically unstable fighter aircraft. The design procedure is summarized. The vehicle model used in the sample study is described, and the procedure for partitioning the integrated system is presented along with a description of the subsystems. The high-level airframe performance specifications and control design are presented and the control performance is evaluated. The generation of the low-level (engine) subsystem specifications from the airframe requirements are discussed, and the engine performance specifications are presented along with the subsystem control design. A compensator to accommodate the influence of airframe outputs on the engine subsystem is also considered. Finally, the entire closed loop system performance and stability characteristics are examined.

Mattern, Duane↗
NASA NTRS1984

Tradeoff methods in multiobjective insensitive design of airplane control systems

The latest results of an ongoing study of computer-aided design of airplane control systems are given. Constrained minimization algorithms are used, with the design objectives in the constraint vector. The concept of Pareto optimiality is briefly reviewed. It is shown how an experienced designer can use it to find designs which are well-balanced in all objectives. Then the problem of finding designs which are insensitive to uncertainty in system parameters are discussed, introducing a probabilistic vector definition of sensitivity which is consistent with the deterministic Pareto optimal problem. Insensitivity is important in any practical design, but it is particularly important in the design of feedback control systems, since it is considered to be the most important distinctive property of feedback control. Methods of tradeoff between deterministic and stochastic-insensitive (SI) design are described, and tradeoff design results are presented for the example of the a Shuttle lateral stability augmentation system. This example is used because careful studies have been made of the uncertainty in Shuttle aerodynamics. Finally, since accurate statistics of uncertain parameters are usually not available, the effects of crude statistical models on SI designs are examined.

Schy, A. A.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Design optimization for cost and quality: The robust design approach

Designing reliable, low cost, and operable space systems has become the key to future space operations. Designing high quality space systems at low cost is an economic and technological challenge to the designer. A systematic and efficient way to meet this challenge is a new method of design optimization for performance, quality, and cost, called Robust Design. Robust Design is an approach for design optimization. It consists of: making system performance insensitive to material and subsystem variation, thus allowing the use of less costly materials and components; making designs less sensitive to the variations in the operating environment, thus improving reliability and reducing operating costs; and using a new structured development process so that engineering time is used most productively. The objective in Robust Design is to select the best combination of controllable design parameters so that the system is most robust to uncontrollable noise factors. The robust design methodology uses a mathematical tool called an orthogonal array, from design of experiments theory, to study a large number of decision variables with a significantly small number of experiments. Robust design also uses a statistical measure of performance, called a signal-to-noise ratio, from electrical control theory, to evaluate the level of performance and the effect of noise factors. The purpose is to investigate the Robust Design methodology for improving quality and cost, demonstrate its application by the use of an example, and suggest its use as an integral part of space system design process.

Unal, Resit↗
DOE OSTI2021

Comprehensive Margin Assessment of the ASME Section III, Division 5, Class A Primary Load Design Rules

This report provides a comprehensive margin assessment of the ASME Section III, Division 5, Subsection HB, Subpart B rules for the design of high temperature reactor components against load controlled stress limits. These rules, often called the Code primary load design rules, provide protection against creep rupture and plastic collapse under steady conditions. The method adopted here is to compare the deterministic ASME design life, according to the primary load design rules, against the expected, statistical service life of the component, considering creep rupture as the relevant failure mode. The report provides the design margin of the ASME rules in terms of the probability of premature failure -- the probability that the component fails in service before reaching the ASME design life. To complete this assessment, the report describes the development of a statistical creep life assessment procedure accounting for variations in the component loading, material creep rate, and the material rupture time. This includes a novel method for correlating creep rupture data using a Gaussian process accounting for heat-to-heat variation in the Larson-Miller time-temperature parameter. The report applies the complete margin assessment process to quantify the design margin inherent in the ASME primary load design rules as a function of temperature for relevant component geometries and materials. The overall conclusion is that the ASME rules are conservative, providing designs with very small probability of premature failure, but some optimization of the Code design rules is possible to provide a more uniform design margin.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRS1993

Statistical results from the Virginia Tech propagation experiment using the Olympus 12, 20, and 30 GHz satellite beacons

Virginia Tech has performed a comprehensive propagation experiment using the Olympus satellite beacons at 12.5, 19.77, and 29.66 GHz (which we refer to as 12, 20, and 30 GHz). Four receive terminals were designed and constructed, one terminal at each frequency plus a portable one with 20 and 30 GHz receivers for microscale and scintillation studies. Total power radiometers were included in each terminal in order to set the clear air reference level for each beacon and also to predict path attenuation. More details on the equipment and the experiment design are found elsewhere. Statistical results for one year of data collection were analyzed. In addition, the following studies were performed: a microdiversity experiment in which two closely spaced 20 GHz receivers were used; a comparison of total power and Dicke switched radiometer measurements, frequency scaling of scintillations, and adaptive power control algorithm development. Statistical results are reported.

Stutzman, Warren L.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Accuracy Assessment of Response Surface Approximations for Supersonic Turbine Design

There is a growing trend to employ CFD tools to supply the necessary information for design optimization of fluid dynamics components/systems. Such results are prone to uncertainties due to reasons including discretization. errors, incomplete convergence of computational procedures, and errors associated with physical models such as turbulence closures. Based on this type of information, gradient-based optimization algorithms often suffer from the noisy calculations, which can seriously compromise the outcome. Similar problems arise from the experimental measurements. Global optimization techniques, such as those based on the response surface (RS) concept are becoming popular in part because they can overcome some of these barriers. However, there are also fundamental issues related to such global optimization technique such as RS. For example, in high dimensional design spaces, typically only a small number of function evaluations are available due to computational and experimental costs. On the other hand, complex features of the design variables do not allow one to model the global characteristics of the design space with simple quadratic polynomials. Consequently a main challenge is to reduce the size of the region where we fit the RS, or make it more accurate in the regions where the optimum is likely to reside. Response Surface techniques using either polynomials or and Neural Network (NN) methods offer designers alternatives to conduct design optimization. The RS technique employs statistical and numerical techniques to establish the relationship between design variables and objective/constraint functions, typically using polynomials. In this study, we aim at addressing issues related to the following questions: (1) How to identify outliers associated with a given RS representation and improve the RS model via appropriate treatments? (2) How to focus on selected design data so that RS can give better performance in regions critical to design optimization? (3) How to combine NN and polynomial techniques for improving the accuracy of the RS model?

Papila, Nilay↗
NASA NTRS2018

Remote Sensing, Uncertainty Quantification, and a Theory of Data Systems; Workshop Report

The purpose of the workshop was to invite statisticians, applied mathematicians, computer scientists, data system architects, experts in remote sensing technology, and Climate and Earth System scientists to review, discuss, and plan research on issues related to large-scale, efficient analysis of distributed data using spatial statistical methods. Our motivation in organizing this event was to catalyze interchange among experts on the fast-emerging problem of analysis of distributed data. As part of SAMSI's 2017-2018 Program on Mathematical and Statistical Methods for Climate and the Earth System, a Working Group on Remote Sensing was established to address statistical and mathematical research problems in the analysis of remote sensing data. The Working Group has five subgroups: 1) Spatial Retrieval Methodology (the so-called \Spatial-X" subgroup); 2) Spatial Analysis for Hyperspectral Data (the so-called \Spatial-Y" subgroup); 3) Emulators for Complex Forward Models; 4) Optimization for Remote Sensing Retrievals; and 5) Theory of Data Systems (ToDS). The ToDS subgroup spent the first half of this academic year formulating a framework in which to consider the joint problem of a) optimizing statistical methods for environments where data are distributed and too large to move to a central location, and b) the design of data system infrastructures within which to implement those statistical methods. To x ideas, the Workshop focused on spatial statistical methods. To date there are many new spatial statistical methods designed with massive data sets in mind, in the literature. However, very few have been implemented for remote sensing data, and none have been implemented in operational settings like those used by NASA and NOAA. A major impediment to their use in these cases is that the data are not only massive, but are stored in different physical locations. These data must be brought together in some way in order to estimate spatial covariance functions, but moving data to a central location for analysis is tedious at best and impossible at worst. Some remote data reduction is almost certainly necessary, but how much? What are the consequences for inference? The fundamental issue underlying these questions is how to navigate the trade-space between costs and uncertainty in the estimates or inferences that are ultimately produced.

Braverman, Amy↗
DOE OSTI2021

REGULATORY TESTING AND POSTTEST ANALYSIS OF THE DPP-3 TYPE B SHIPPING CONTAINER FOR NCT AND HAC TESTS

The safe transportation of radioactive material using appropriately designed and certified transportation packages is important to protect the public and environment. Therefore, a comprehensive and rigorous system of packaging requirements are required. The purpose of this test protocol is to determine the effects of drop testing on package performance in a Type B shipping package (DPP-3). Required physical tests for the DPP-3 package include normal conditions of transport and hypothetical accident conditions test requirements. The preparation, regulatory testing, and post-test evaluation of a Type B shipping package tested to the 10 CFR 71.71 and 10 CFR 71.73 requirements will be presented. Six packages were tested and the responses when subjected to the HAC sequence of free drop, puncture, and thermal tests according to 10 CFR 71.73 were measured. The posttest helium leak test showed a leak rate less than 1 × 10-7 He-cc/sec which means that the containment boundary was maintained after the regulatory testing, therefore maintaining a leak tight environment. To determine the amount of change in the package performance measurements, statistical analyses were conducted using SPSS version 26. The null hypothesis of the testing was that there would not be a change in the measurements from pre to post-testing large enough to find statistical significance. Therefore, a finding of statistical significance indicated too much variability in the package design and was deemed an unfavorable finding. A repeated measures t-test was used to analyze the drum lids and CV torques. A one-way ANOVA was used to analyze height and diameter packages. Results of the repeated measures t-test indicated that all six containment vessel lid torques were statistically significant. However only three out of the six drum lid torques were statistically significant. Therefore, design of the lids caused more variability than necessary when subjected to the following drop tests: 1.) horizontal and cold; 2.) vertical lid down; and 3.) corner with lid up. Results of the one-way ANOVA analysis on height indicated that four out of the six CTUs were statistically significant. Thus, design of the CTUs caused more variability then necessary when subjected to the following drop tests: 1.) horizontal hot; 2.) horizontal cold; 3.) corner lid up; and 4.) corner lid down. Results of the one-way ANOVA analysis on diameter indicated that all six CTUs were statistically significant. Thus, design of the CTUs caused more variability then necessary when subjected to all of the tests. The DPP-3 design has been shown to be an acceptable design for the transport of radioactive materials. However, results of the statistical analysis reveal a possible improvement in package and test design to reduce variability in package performance measurement before and after testing.

Martinez, Oscar↗
NASA NTRS1991

Knowledge acquisition for expert systems using statistical methods

A common problem in the design of expert systems is the definition of rules from data obtained in system operation or simulation. A statistical method for generating rule bases from numerical data, motivated by an example based on aircraft navigation with multiple sensors is presented. The specific objective is to design an expert system that selects a satisfactory suite of measurements from a dissimilar, redundant set, given an arbitrary navigation geometry and possible sensor failures. The systematic development of a Navigation Sensor Management (NSM) Expert System from Kalman Filter covariance data is described. The development method invokes two statistical techniques: Analysis-of-Variance (ANOVA) and the ID3 algorithm. The ANOVA technique indicates whether variations of problem parameters give statistically different covariance results, and the ID3 algorithm identifies the relationships between the problem parameters using probabilistic knowledge extracted from a simulation example set.

Belkin, Brenda L.↗
NASA NTRS1970

Statistical complex fatigue data for SAE 4340 steel and its use in design by reliability

A brief description of the complex fatigue machines used in the test program is presented. The data generated from these machines are given and discussed. Two methods of obtaining strength distributions from the data are also discussed. Then follows a discussion of the construction of statistical fatigue diagrams and their use in designing by reliability. Finally, some of the problems encountered in the test equipment and a corrective modification are presented.

Kececioglu, D.↗
DOE OSTI2026

PISCES two-detector covariance matrix fit for the NOvA Experiment

NOvA is a long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiment with two functionally identical detectors: a Near Detector (ND) at Fermilab, placed 1 km from the neutrino source, and a Far Detector (FD) located 810 km away from the ND in Minnesota. NOvA's primary physics goals are the precise measurements of neutrino oscillation parameters $\theta_{23}$ and $\Delta m^2_{32}$ , determine the neutrino mass ordering, and constrain the value of $\delta_{CP}$, via the study of muon neutrino to electron neutrino oscillation. In the standard NOvA three-flavor analysis, oscillation parameters are extracted using an extrapolation technique in which the ND data constrain the FD prediction through a ratio method. While this allows for systematic uncertainties sharing the same effects in both detectors to cancel, it remains an FD-only fit and does not fully leverage the constraining power of the high-statistics ND. This analysis proposes a simultaneous ND+FD fit using the PISCES method. PISCES (Parameter Inference with Systematic Covariance and Exact Statistics) is a framework designed to support complex configurations such as a joint ND+FD fit. This allows PISCES to take full advantage of the ND data to directly constrain systematic uncertainties across all samples. In PISCES, systematic uncertainties are encoded in a fractional covariance matrix, and statistical uncertainties are handled with a Poisson likelihood, making the approach well suited for low-statistics samples. For interpretability, we further use a Newton–Raphson + PCA method to recover per-systematic pulls from the covariance formulation. This poster presents the full PISCES joint ND+FD fit for the NOvA three-flavor analysis, describes its implementation and evaluates its performance through extensive robustness tests and fake data studies. It also provides a comparison between the PISCES joint ND+FD results and the standard NOvA extrapolation method.

Rajaoalisoa, Miriama [Cincinnati U.] (ORCID:000000↗
DOE OSTI2021

Risk-Adaptive Experimental Design for High-Consequence Systems: LDRD Final Report

Constructing accurate statistical models of critical system responses typically requires an enormous amount of data from physical experiments or numerical simulations. Unfortunately, data generation is often expensive and time consuming. To streamline the data generation process, optimal experimental design determines the 'best' allocation of experiments with respect to a criterion that measures the ability to estimate some important aspect of an assumed statistical model. While optimal design has a vast literature, few researchers have developed design paradigms targeting tail statistics, such as quantiles. In this project, we tailored and extended traditional design paradigms to target distribution tails. Our approach included (i) the development of new optimality criteria to shape the distribution of prediction variances, (ii) the development of novel risk-adapted surrogate models that provably overestimate certain statistics including the probability of exceeding a threshold, and (iii) the asymptotic analysis of regression approaches that target tail statistics such as superquantile regression. To accompany our theoretical contributions, we released implementations of our methods for surrogate modeling and design of experiments in two complementary open source software packages, the ROL/OED Toolkit and PyApprox.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2001

Variations and Defects: Influence on Performance and Safety of Aerospace Missions

The overall goal of this project is to determine sources of normal and abnormal statistical variation for helicopter transmission vibrations. One current application is HUMS technology for helicopters. The design and manufacturing research hypothesis is that statistical variation due to design and manufacturing is a significant source of unreliability and eventual failures of systems. The Systems Health and Safety group research objectives include the following: (1) to develop empirical database for modeling and evaluation; (2) to identify and model factors that influence vibrations; (3) to develop algorithms for damage detection; (4) to determine 'hit' and 'false alarm' rates; and (5) to understand the fundamentals of transmission vibrations.

Turner, Irem Y.↗