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NASA NTRS2010

Maximum Likelihood Time-of-Arrival Estimation of Optical Pulses via Photon-Counting Photodetectors

Many optical imaging, ranging, and communications systems rely on the estimation of the arrival time of an optical pulse. Recently, such systems have been increasingly employing photon-counting photodetector technology, which changes the statistics of the observed photocurrent. This requires time-of-arrival estimators to be developed and their performances characterized. The statistics of the output of an ideal photodetector, which are well modeled as a Poisson point process, were considered. An analytical model was developed for the mean-square error of the maximum likelihood (ML) estimator, demonstrating two phenomena that cause deviations from the minimum achievable error at low signal power. An approximation was derived to the threshold at which the ML estimator essentially fails to provide better than a random guess of the pulse arrival time. Comparing the analytic model performance predictions to those obtained via simulations, it was verified that the model accurately predicts the ML performance over all regimes considered. There is little prior art that attempts to understand the fundamental limitations to time-of-arrival estimation from Poisson statistics. This work establishes both a simple mathematical description of the error behavior, and the associated physical processes that yield this behavior. Previous work on mean-square error characterization for ML estimators has predominantly focused on additive Gaussian noise. This work demonstrates that the discrete nature of the Poisson noise process leads to a distinctly different error behavior.

Erkmen, Baris I.↗

DOE OSTI2022

How to calculate the rate constants for nonradiative transitions between the M S components of spin multiplets?

Predicting the rates of spin-dependent processes characterized by nonradiative transitions between electronic states with different spin multiplicities is important for understanding the mechanisms of many photochemical and catalytic reactions. To calculate these rates, it is necessary to define the spin state representation and the couplings between these states that drives the interstate transitions. In this work, we describe three different approaches to calculating the spin-orbit coupling (SOC), transition probabilities, and rate constants between the MS components of the electronic states with different spin multiplicities. We implemented these approaches in our nonadiabatic statistical theory (NAST) software package, which predicts the transition probabilities and rate constants of spin-dependent processes using information obtained from electronic structure calculations. Here, we discuss the advantage and drawbacks of each approach and, as an example, calculate the rate constants for transitions between the spin states in the active site model of the protein rubredoxin.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

Active site design enables industrial scale H 2 O 2 electrosynthesis with metal-free catalysts

The electrosynthesis of hydrogen peroxide (H 2 O 2 ) via a two-electron oxygen reduction reaction enables decentralized H 2 O 2 production. While metal-free carbon catalysts are sustainable and low-cost, their performance is hindered by poorly defined active sites and uncontrolled defect states. Here, we resolve these challenges through active site design and catalyst screening using fluorine (F) and nitrogen (N) codoped carbons as model materials. Statistical analysis combined with density functional theoretical calculations reveals that F-induced structural modification and defect passivation optimize OOH* binding, with F-doping and adjacent F atoms predominantly lowering abs ΔG(OOH*). Experimental results confirm that semi-ionic C–F bonds passivate defects in nitrogen-doped carbon, enhancing catalytic activity and durability. The resulting (N, F)-codoped carbon achieves nearly 100% H 2 O 2 selectivity at 0.5–0.65 V versus the reversible hydrogen electrode and maintains > 95% across 0.01–0.65 V versus the reversible hydrogen electrode. In an electrolyzer, (N, F)-codoped carbon exhibits an H 2 O 2 yield rate of 74.35 mol g cat. −1 h -1 and sustains 300 mA cm -2 for 105 hours with ~95% faradaic efficiency. Coupling the two-electron oxygen reduction reaction with methanol oxidation further reduces cell voltage and enhances productivity. This work provides a means to design efficient catalysts for industrial H 2 O 2 electrosynthesis.

H2O2 electrosynthesis↗

DOE OSTI2022

Mechanism for particle fractionalization and universal edge physics in quantum Hall fluids

Abstract Advancing a microscopic framework that rigorously unveils the underlying topological hallmarks of fractional quantum Hall (FQH) fluids is a prerequisite for making progress in the classification of strongly-coupled topological matter. We present a second-quantization framework that reveals an exact fusion mechanism for particle fractionalization in FQH fluids, and uncovers the fundamental structure behind the condensation of non-local operators characterizing topological order in the lowest-Landau-level. We show the first exact analytic computation of the quasielectron Berry connections leading to its fractional charge and exchange statistics, and perform Monte Carlo simulations that numerically confirm the fusion mechanism for quasiparticles. We express the sequence of (bosonic and fermionic) Laughlin second-quantized states, highlighting the lack of local condensation, and present a rigorous constructive subspace bosonization dictionary for the bulk fluid. Finally, we establish universal long-distance behavior of edge excitations by formulating a conjecture based on the DNA, or root state, of the FQH fluid.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2020

Machine learning approaches for structural and thermodynamic properties of a Lennard-Jones fluid

Predicting the functional properties of many molecular systems relies on understanding how atomistic interactions give rise to macroscale observables. However, current attempts to develop predictive models for the structural and thermodynamic properties of condensed-phase systems often rely on extensive parameter fitting to empirically selected functional forms whose effectiveness is limited to a narrow range of physical conditions. Here, we illustrate how these traditional fitting paradigms can be superseded using machine learning. Specifically, we use the results of molecular dynamics simulations to train machine learning protocols that are able to produce the radial distribution function, pressure, and internal energy of a Lennard-Jones fluid with increased accuracy in comparison to previous theoretical methods. The radial distribution function is determined using a variant of the segmented linear regression with the multivariate function decomposition approach developed by Craven et al. [J. Phys. Chem. Lett. 11, 4372 (2020)]. The pressure and internal energy are determined using expressions containing the learned radial distribution function and also a kernel ridge regression process that is trained directly on thermodynamic properties measured in simulation. The presented results suggest that the structural and thermodynamic properties of fluids may be determined more accurately through machine learning than through human-guided functional forms.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

Reversible to irreversible transitions for cyclically driven particles on periodic obstacle arrays

Here, we examine the collective dynamics of disks moving through a square array of obstacles under cyclic square wave driving. Below a critical density, we find that the system organizes into a reversible state in which the disks return to the same positions at the end of every drive cycle. Above this density, the dynamics are irreversible and the disks do not return to the same positions after each cycle. The critical density depends strongly on the angle θ between the driving direction and a symmetry axis of the obstacle array, with the highest critical densities appearing at commensurate angles such as θ = 0° and θ = 45° and the lowest critical densities falling at θ = arctan (0.618), the inverse of the golden ratio, where the flow is the most degenerate. As the density increases, the number of cycles required to reach a reversible state grows as a power law with an exponent near ν = 1.36, similar to what is found in periodically driven colloidal and superconducting vortex systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

Thermodynamically consistent incorporation of the Langmuir adsorption model into compressible fluctuating hydrodynamics

For a gas–solid interfacial system where chemical species undergo reversible adsorption, we develop a mesoscopic stochastic modeling method that simulates both gas-phase hydrodynamics and surface coverage dynamics by coupling the Langmuir adsorption model with compressible fluctuating hydrodynamics. To this end, we derive a thermodynamically consistent mass–energy update scheme that accounts for how the mass and energy variables in the gas and surface subsystems should be updated according to the changes in the number of molecules of each species in each subsystem due to adsorption and desorption events. By performing a stochastic analysis for the ideal Langmuir model and the full hydrodynamic system, we analytically confirm that our mass–energy update scheme captures thermodynamic equilibrium predicted by equilibrium statistical mechanics. We find that an internal energy correction term is needed, which is attributed to the difference in the mean kinetic energy of gas molecules colliding with the surface from that computed from the Maxwell–Boltzmann distribution. By performing an equilibrium simulation study for an ideal gas mixture of CO and Ar, with CO undergoing reversible adsorption, we validate our overall simulation method and implementation.

Adsorption↗

DOE OSTI2025

Personalized Tucker Decomposition: Modeling Commonality and Peculiarity on Tensor Data

In this paper, we propose a personalized Tucker decomposition (perTucker) to address the limitations of traditional tensor decomposition methods in capturing heterogeneity across different datasets. perTucker decomposes tensor data into shared global components and personalized local components. We introduce an order orthogonality assumption and develop a proximal gradient regularized block coordinate descent algorithm guaranteed to converge to a stationary point. The unique and common representations learned by perTucker reveal intrinsic statistical patterns in data and provide valuable information for a wide range of downstream analytics, including anomaly detection, source classification, and clustering. We demonstrate perTucker’s effectiveness through a simulation study and two case studies on solar flare detection and tonnage signal classification.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1972

On identifying new kinds of astronomical objects.

The evidence for a new compact X-ray object claimed by the Berkeley group of Margon et al (1971) is called into question by Princeton critics on grounds of inadequate statistical analysis. The presented rebuttal of the Berkeley group upholds the correctness of their analytical procedure, but concedes the need for further observations.

Bahcall, J. N.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Ku-band radar threshold analysis

The statistics of the CFAR threshold for the Ku-band radar was determined. Exact analytical results were developed for both the mean and standard deviations in the designated search mode. The mean value is compared to the results of a previously reported simulation. The analytical results are more optimistic than the simulation results, for which no explanation is offered. The normalized standard deviation is shown to be very sensitive to signal-to-noise ratio and very insensitive to the noise correlation present in the range gates of the designated search mode. The substantial variation in the CFAR threshold is dominant at large values of SNR where the normalized standard deviation is greater than 0.3. Whether or not this significantly affects the resulting probability of detection is a matter which deserves additional attention.

Weber, C. L.↗

NASA NTRS1983

A procedure for combining acoustically induced and mechanically induced loads (first passage failure design criterion)

The combined load statistics are developed by taking the acoustically induced load to be a random population, assumed to be stationary. Each element of this ensemble of acoustically induced loads is assumed to have the same power spectral density (PSD), obtained previously from a random response analysis employing the given acoustic field in the STS cargo bay as a stationary random excitation. The mechanically induced load is treated as either (1) a known deterministic transient, or (2) a nonstationary random variable of known first and second statistical moments which vary with time. A method is then shown for determining the probability that the combined load would, at any time, have a value equal to or less than a certain level. Having obtained a statistical representation of how the acoustic and mechanical loads are expected to combine, an analytical approximation for defining design levels for these loads is presented using the First Passage failure criterion.

Crowe, D. R.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Description of quantum noise by a Langevin equation

General features of the quantum noise problem expressed as the equations of motion for a particle coupled to a set of oscillators are investigated analytically. Account is taken of the properties of the companion oscillators by formulating quantum statistical correlation Langevin equations (QSLE). The frequency of the oscillators is then retained as a natural cut-off for the quantum noise. The QSLE is further extended to encompass the particle trajectory and is bounded by initial and final states of the oscillator. The states are expressed as the probability of existence at the moment of particle collision that takes the oscillator into a final state. Two noise sources then exist: a statistical uncertainty of the initial state and the quantum dynamical uncertainty associated with a transition from the initial to final state. Feynman's path-integral formulation is used to characterize the functional of the particle trajectory, which slows the particle. It is shown that the energy loss may be attributed to friction, which satisfies energy conservation laws.

Metiu, H.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Fracture mechanics concepts in reliability analysis of monolithic ceramics

Basic design concepts for high-performance, monolithic ceramic structural components are addressed. The design of brittle ceramics differs from that of ductile metals because of the inability of ceramic materials to redistribute high local stresses caused by inherent flaws. Random flaw size and orientation requires that a probabilistic analysis be performed in order to determine component reliability. The current trend in probabilistic analysis is to combine linear elastic fracture mechanics concepts with the two parameter Weibull distribution function to predict component reliability under multiaxial stress states. Nondestructive evaluation supports this analytical effort by supplying data during verification testing. It can also help to determine statistical parameters which describe the material strength variation, in particular the material threshold strength (the third Weibull parameter), which in the past was often taken as zero for simplicity.

Manderscheid, Jane M.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Boundary-layer receptivity due to distributed surface imperfections of a deterministic or random nature

Acoustic receptivity of a Blasius boundary layer in the presence of distributed, 2D surface irregularities is investigated analytically. It is shown that, out of the entire spatial spectrum of the surface irregularities, only a narrow band of Fourier components can lead to an efficient conversion of the acoustic input at any given frequency to an unstable eigenmode of the boundary-layer flow. Random irregularities which are spatially homogeneous in nature, and also possess a continuous spectrum in the streamwise direction, lead to instability amplitudes that are intermediate to those caused by the periodic and isolated irregularities, respectively, being, in fact, of the same order as the geometrical mean of the amplitudes in the latter two cases. A physical explanation for these asymptotic scalings is given, in addition to providing an analytical expression for the expected value of the instability amplitude for an ensemble of statistically irregular surfaces with random phase distributions.

Choudhari, Meelan↗

NASA NTRS1997

Evolution of Structure in the Intergalactic Medium and the Nature of the LY-Alpha Forest

We have performed a detailed statistical study of the evolution of structure in a photoionized intergalactic medium (IGM) using analytical simulations to extend the calculation into the mildly nonlinear density regime found to prevail at z = 3. Our work is based on a simple fundamental conjecture: that the probability distribution function of the density of baryonic diffuse matter in the universe is described by a lognormal (LN) random field. The LN distribution has several attractive features and follows plausibly from the assumption of initial linear Gaussian density and velocity fluctuations at arbitrarily early times. Starting with a suitably normalized power spectrum of primordial fluctuations in a universe dominated by cold dark matter (CDM), we compute the behavior of the baryonic matter, which moves slowly toward minima in the dark matter potential on scales larger than the Jeans length. We have computed two models that succeed in matching observations. One is a nonstandard CDM model with OMEGA = 1, h = 0.5, and GAMMA = 0.3, and the other is a low-density flat model with a cosmological constant (LCDM), with OMEGA = 0.4, OMEGA(sub LAMBDA) = 0.6, and h = 0.65. In both models, the variance of the density distribution function grows with time, reaching unity at about z = 4, where the simulation yields spectra that closely resemble the Ly-alpha forest absorption seen in the spectra of high-z quasars. The calculations also successfully predict the observed properties of the Ly-alpha forest clouds and their evolution from z = 4 down to at least z = 2, assuming a constant intensity for the metagalactic UV background over this redshift range. However, in our model the forest is not due to discrete clouds, but rather to fluctuations in a continuous intergalactic medium. At z = 3; typical clouds with measured neutral hydrogen column densities N(sub H I) = 10(exp 13.3), 10(exp 13.5), and 10(exp 11.5) /sq cm correspond to fluctuations with mean total densities approximately 10, 1, and 0.1 times the universal mean baryon density. Perhaps surprisingly, fluctuations whose amplitudes are less than or equal to the mean density still appear as "clouds" because in our model more than 70% of the volume of the IGM at z = 3 is filled with gas at densities below the mean value.

Bi, Hongguang↗

NASA NTRS1999

Global Core Plasma Model

Over 40 years of ground and spacecraft plasmaspheric measurements have resulted in many statistical descriptions of plasmaspheric properties. In some cases, these properties have been represented as analytical descriptions that are valid for specific regions or conditions. For the most part, what has not been done is to extend regional empirical descriptions or models to the plasmasphere as a whole. In contrast, many related investigations depend on the use of representative plasmaspheric conditions throughout the inner magnetosphere. Wave propagation, involving the transport of energy through the magnetosphere, is strongly affected by thermal plasma density and its composition. Ring current collisional and wave particle losses also strongly depend on these quantities. Plasmaspheric also plays a secondary role in influencing radio signals from the Global Positioning System satellites. The Global Core Plasma Model (GCPM) is an attempt to assimilate previous empirical evidence and regional models for plasmaspheric density into a continuous, smooth model of thermal plasma density in the inner magnetosphere. In that spirit, the International Reference Ionosphere is currently used to complete the low altitude description of density and composition in the model. The models and measurements on which the GCPM is currently based and its relationship to IRI will be discussed.

Gallagher, Dennis L.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Empirical Modeling of the Plasmasphere

Over 40 years of ground and spacecraft plasmaspheric measurements have resulted in many statistical descriptions of plasmaspheric properties. In some cases, these properties have been represented as analytical descriptions that are valid for specific regions or conditions. For the most part, what has not been done is to extend regional empirical descriptions or models to the plasmasphere as a whole. In contrast, many related investigations depend on the use of representative plasmaspheric conditions throughout the inner magnetosphere. Wave propagation, involving the transport of energy through the magnetosphere, is strongly affected by thermal plasma density and its composition. Ring current collisional and wave particle losses also strongly depend on these quantities, Plasmaspheric also plays a secondary role in influencing radio signals from the Global Positioning System satellites. The Global Core Plasma Model (GCPM) is an attempt to assimilate previous empirical evidence and regional models for plasmaspheric density into a continuous, smooth model of then-nal plasma density in the inner magnetosphere. In that spirit, the International Reference Ionosphere is currently used to complete the low altitude description of density and composition in the model. The models and measurements on which the GCPM is currently based and its relationship to IRI will be discussed.

Gallagher, Dennis L.↗

NASA NTRS2003

System Identification of X-33 Neural Network

Modern flight control research has improved spacecraft survivability as its goal. To this end we need to have a failure detection system on board. In case the spacecraft is performing imperfectly, reconfiguration of control is needed. For that purpose we need to have parameter identification of spacecraft dynamics. Parameter identification of a system is called system identification. We treat the system as a black box which receives some inputs that lead to some outputs. The question is: what kind of parameters for a particular black box can correlate the observed inputs and outputs? Can these parameters help us to predict the outputs for a new given set of inputs? This is the basic problem of system identification. The X33 was supposed to have the onboard capability of evaluating the current performance and if needed to take the corrective measures to adapt to desired performance. The X33 is comprised of both rocket and aircraft vehicle design characteristics and requires, in general, analytical methods for evaluating its flight performance. Its flight consists of four phases: ascent, transition, entry and TAEM (Terminal Area Energy Management). It spends about 200 seconds in ascent phase, reaching an altitude of about 180,000 feet and a speed of about 10 to 15 Mach. During the transition phase which lasts only about 30 seconds, its altitude may increase to about 190,000 feet but its speed is reduced to about 9 Mach. At the beginning of this phase, the Main Engine is Cut Off (MECO) and the control is reconfigured with the help of aerosurfaces (four elevons, two flaps and two rudders) and reaction control system (RCS). The entry phase brings down the altitude of X33 to about 90,000 feet and its speed to about Mach 3. It spends about 250 seconds in this phase. Main engine is still cut off and the vehicle is controlled by complex maneuvers of aerosurfaces. The last phase TAEM lasts for about 450 seconds and the altitude and speed, both are reduced to zero. The present attempt, as a start, focuses only on the entry phase. Since the main engine remains cut off in this phase, there is no thrust acting on the system. This considerably simplifies the equations of motion. We introduce another simplification by assuming the system to be linear after some non-linearities are removed analytically from our consideration. Under these assumptions, the problem could be solved by Classical Statistics by employing the least sum of squares approach. Instead we chose to use the Neural Network method. This method has many advantages. It is modern, more efficient, can be adapted to work even when the assumptions are diluted. In fact, Neural Networks try to model the human brain and are capable of pattern recognition.

Aggarwal, Shiv↗