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DOE OSTI2021

Quantification of Variation in Combustion Instability Amplitude in a Multi-Nozzle Can Combustor

In this work, we quantify the level of variation in unstable combustion oscillation amplitudes and identify the source of this variation in a multi-nozzle can combustor. At conditions where pollutant emissions are reduced, lean-premixed combustors can undergo thermoacoustic instability when pressure and heat release rate oscillations couple. A commonly used method for suppressing instability is fuel staging, which is a method where fuel is unevenly distributed between nozzles in a multi-nozzle combustor. Our work follows others who have characterized the effect of fuel staging on combustion instability and the mechanisms by which it works during both steady-state and transient operation. One of the outcomes from our previous work was that certain instability operating points display a high level of pressure oscillation amplitude variation. Instead of oscillating at a constant limit-cycle amplitude, the pressure oscillation amplitude varies significantly in time. In this work, we use the concept of permutation entropy to quantify the level of variation in the pressure fluctuation amplitude. We correlate the level of variation with a number of state variables over a range of operating conditions, 291 test cases in all. These state variables include mixture equivalence ratio; transient timescale, amplitude, and direction; hardware temperatures; gas temperatures; and thermoacoustic damping and growth rates. Significant pressure oscillation amplitude variation occurs when the thermoacoustic damping rate is low. The damping and growth rates can be low for a number of reasons, but they are highly correlated with the metal temperature of the centerbody, where the flames are anchored; lower temperatures result in lower damping rates during stable operation and lower growth rates during unstable operation. These results show the importance of the thermal boundary condition on the time-dependent behavior of the thermoacoustic instability.

Westfall, Seth↗

DOE OSTI2024

AIRES-NODE

This software package performs time series forecasting for engineering systems using neural controlled differential equations. Neural controlled differential equations are continuous time analogues to recurrent neural networks. AIRES-NODE is particularly well suited for dynamic systems which are subject to external forcing terms and time-dependent boundary conditions. AIRES-NODE provides an encoder-decoder architecture which allows for variable-length forecasts to be made and is not limited to a fixed time step size when forecasting. Additionally, by utilizing a novel combination of a variational autoencoder and neural controlled differential equations, the AIRES-NODE package is capable of producing probabilistic future forecasts.

Gurecky, William [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (O↗

DOE OSTI2025

The latent variable proximal point algorithm for variational problems with inequality constraints

The latent variable proximal point (LVPP) algorithm is a framework for solving infinite-dimensional variational problems with pointwise inequality constraints. The algorithm is a saddle point reformulation of the Bregman proximal point algorithm. At the continuous level, the two formulations are equivalent, but the saddle point formulation is more amenable to discretization because it introduces a structure-preserving transformation between a latent function space and the feasible set. Working in this latent space is much more convenient for enforcing inequality constraints than the feasible set, as discretizations can employ general linear combinations of suitable basis functions, and nonlinear solvers can involve general additive updates. LVPP yields numerical methods with observed mesh-independence for obstacle problems, contact, fracture, plasticity, and others besides; in many cases, for the first time. The framework also extends to more complex constraints, providing means to enforce convexity in the Monge–Ampère equation and handling quasi-variational inequalities, where the underlying constraint depends implicitly on the unknown solution. Here, in this paper, we describe the LVPP algorithm in a general form and apply it to ten problems from across mathematics.

Inequality constraints↗

DOE OSTI2022

LiMo 8 O 10 : Polar Crystal Structure with Infinite Edge-Sharing Molybdenum Octahedra

Here, polycrystalline LiMo 8 O 10 was prepared in a sealed Mo crucible at 1380 °C for 48 h using the conventional high-temperature solid-state method. The polar tetragonal crystal structure (space group I4 1 md) is confirmed based on the Rietveld refinement of powder neutron diffraction and 7 Li/ 6 Li solid-state NMR. The crystal structure features infinite chains of Mo 4 O 5 (i.e., Mo 2 Mo 4/2 O 6/2 O 6/3 ) as a repeat unit containing edge-sharing Mo 6 octahedra with strong Mo–Mo metal bonding along the chain. X-ray absorption near-edge spectroscopy of the Mo-L 3 edge is consistent with the formal Mo valence/configuration. Magnetic measurements reveal that LiMo 8 O 10 is paramagnetic down to 1.8 K. Temperature-dependent resistivity [ρ(T)] measurement indicates a semiconducting behavior that can be fitted with Mott’s variable range hopping conduction mechanism in the temperature range of 215 and 45 K. The ρ(T) curve exhibits an exponential increase below 5 K with a large ratio of ρ 1.8 /ρ 300 = 435. LiMo 8 O 10 shows a negative field-dependent magnetoresistance between 2 and 25 K. Heat capacity measurement fitted with the modified Debye model yields the Debye temperature of 365 K.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Model and remote-sensing-guided experimental design and hypothesis generation for monitoring snow-soil–plant interactions

In this study, we develop a machine-learning (ML)-enabled strategy for selecting hillslope-scale ecohydrological monitoring sites within snow-dominated mountainous watersheds, with a particular focus on snow-soil–plant interactions. Data layers rely on spatial data layers from both remote sensing and hydrological model simulations. Specifically, a Landsat-based foresummer drought sensitivity index is used to define the dependency of the annual peak plant productivity on the Palmer drought severity index in the early growing season. Hydrological simulations provide the spatiotemporal dynamics of near-surface soil moisture and snow depth. In this framework, a regression analysis identifies the key hydrological variables relevant to the spatial heterogeneity of drought sensitivity. We then apply unsupervised clustering to these key variables, using the Gaussian mixture model, to group hillslopes into several zones that have divergent relationships regarding soil moisture, snow dynamics, and drought sensitivity. Using the datasets collected in the East River Watershed (Crested Butte, Colorado, United States), results show that drought sensitivity is significantly correlated with model-derived soil moisture and snow-free timing over space and time. The relationship is, however, non-linear, such that the correlation decreases above a threshold elevation and in a heavy snow year due to large snowpacks, lateral flow, and soil storage limitations. Clustering is then able to define the zones that have high or low sensitivity to drought, as well as the mid-elevation regions where sensitivity is associated with the topographic aspect and net potential radiation. In addition, the algorithm identifies the most representative hillslopes with road/trail access within each zone for installing monitoring sites. Our method also aims to significantly increase the use of ML and model-simulation results to guide critical zone and watershed monitoring activities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Robustness of the Stochastic Parameterization of Subgrid-Scale Wind Variability in Sea Surface Fluxes

Abstract High-resolution numerical models have been used to develop statistical models of the enhancement of sea surface fluxes resulting from spatial variability of sea surface wind. In particular, studies have shown that flux enhancement is not a deterministic function of the resolved state. Previous studies focused on single geographical areas or used a single high-resolution numerical model. This study extends the development of such statistical models by considering six different high-resolution models, four different geographical regions, and three different 10-day periods, allowing for a systematic investigation of the robustness of both the deterministic and stochastic parts of the data-driven parameterization. Results indicate that the deterministic part, based on regressing the unresolved normalized flux onto resolved-scale normalized flux and precipitation, is broadly robust across different models, regions, and time periods. The statistical features of the stochastic part of the model (spatial and temporal autocorrelation and parameters of a Gaussian process fit to the regression residual) are also found to be robust and not strongly sensitive to the underlying model, modeled geographical region, or time period studied. Best-fit Gaussian process parameters display robust spatial heterogeneity across models, indicating potential for improvements to the statistical model. These results illustrate the potential for the development of a generic, explicitly stochastic parameterization of sea surface flux enhancements dependent on wind variability.

Endo, Kota↗

DOE OSTI2026

From models to reality: a systematic review on simulated and measured residential heat pump energy savings

High-performance HVAC solutions are central to residential energy management. A substantial share of these are electric, reversible-cycle systems, with heat pumps representing the largest portion of current and near-term adoption. This review synthesizes peer-reviewed and grey literature on residential space heating and cooling heat pumps. The academic literature is dominated by modeling (73.8%), with limited field measurement (13.1%). Grey literature from United States serve as a supplemental resource providing measured savings. Conversions from electric-resistance heating consistently show the largest site energy reductions, while oil/propane baselines yield moderate savings, and gas baseline scenario often deliver small and region-dependent savings. This study cross-checks the grey literature measured data with simulation data filtered from the ResStock dataset. The comparison indicates a discrepancy between simulations and measured data: simulated site EUIs are typically lower than measured EUIs, but percentage energy savings fall in similar ranges, implying simulations capture directional effects while underestimating energy use. Factors associated with variability and model–measurement differences include system characterization and control representation (e.g., backup heat engagement, thermostat/setpoint strategies, commissioning/installation quality), occupant behavior, weather normalization, metering scope, and envelope characterization. This paper also outlines the proposed methodology for comparing simulation and measured data for heat pumps. It emphasizes the metrics used for comparison and units harmonization, building characteristics matching, and compact metadata are needed for simulations to match measured data. The proposed methodology is expected to improve the credibility of simulated savings as measured evidence grows.

Yu, Lili↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Santa Barbara Binary-disk Code Comparison

We have performed numerical calculations of a binary interacting with a gas disk, using 11 different numerical methods and a standard binary-disk setup. The goal of this study is to determine whether all codes agree on a numerically converged solution and to determine the necessary resolution for convergence and the number of binary orbits that must be computed to reach an agreed-upon relaxed state of the binary-disk system. We find that all codes can agree on a converged solution (depending on the diagnostic being measured). The zone spacing required for most codes to reach a converged measurement of the torques applied to the binary by the disk is roughly 1% of the binary separation in the vicinity of the binary components. For our disk model to reach a relaxed state, codes must be run for at least 200 binary orbits, corresponding to about a viscous time for our parameters, 0.2(a 2 Ω B /v) is the kinematic viscosity. The largest discrepancies between codes resulted from the dimensionality of the setup (3D vs. 2D disks). We find good agreement in the total torque on the binary between codes, although the partition of this torque between the gravitational torque, orbital accretion torque, and spin accretion torque depends sensitively on the sink prescriptions employed. In agreement with previous studies, we find a modest difference in torques and accretion variability between 2D and 3D disk models. We find cavity precession rates to be appreciably faster in 3D than in 2D.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Evidence of Spin-Interference Effects in Exclusive 𝐽/𝜓 → 𝑒 + ⁢𝑒 − Photoproduction in Ultraperipheral Heavy-Ion Collisions

Here, we report the first evidence of spin interference in exclusive 𝐽/𝜓 → 𝑒 + ⁢𝑒 − photoproduction in ultraperipheral heavy-ion collisions at STAR at $\sqrt{𝑠_{𝑁⁢𝑁}}$ = 200 GeV. In Au + Au collisions, a negative cos⁡(2⁢𝜙) modulation is found for 𝑝 𝑇 < 120 MeV/𝑐 with a significance of 3.2⁢𝜎, while the isobar data (Ru + Ru, Zr + Zr) show a consistent negative modulation with a significance of 1.9⁢𝜎, opposite in sign to that in 𝜌 0 → 𝜋 + ⁢𝜋 − photoproduction. This establishes for the first time that the interference sign is controlled by the spin structure of the final-state daughters, resolving the ambiguity present in the all-boson 𝜌 0 channel. The compact 𝐽/𝜓 probes gluon distributions at perturbative scales, resulting in a weaker modulation and providing stringent constraints on color glass condensate calculations. These findings demonstrate that spin-dependent interference in heavy vector mesons provides a new, experimentally accessible handle on gluon structure beyond traditional cross-section measurements.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Charge Carrier Transport in Iron Pyrite Thin Films: Disorder-Induced Variable-Range Hopping

Here, the origin of p-type conductivity and the mechanism responsible for low carrier mobility were investigated in pyrite (FeS 2 ) thin films. Temperature-dependent resistivity measurements (10-400 K) were performed on polycrystalline and nanostructured thin films prepared by three different methods: (1) spray pyrolysis, (2) hot-injection synthesized and spin-coated nanocubes, and (3) pulsed laser deposition. The films have a high hole density (10 18 -10 19 ) cm -3 and low mobility (0.1-4 cm 2 V -1 s -1 ) regardless of the method used for their preparation. The charge transport mechanism is determined to be thermally activated conduction (TAC) at near room temperature, with Mott-type variable-range hopping (VRH) of holes via localized states occurring at lower temperatures. The density functional theory (DFT) predicts that sulfur vacancy induces localized defect states within the band gap and the charge remains localized around the defect. The data indicates that the electronic properties including hopping transport in pyrite thin films can be correlated to sulfur vacancy-related defects. The results provide insights into the electronic properties of pyrite thin films and their implications for charge transport.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

A combined first principles study of the structural, magnetic, and phonon properties of monolayer CrI3

The first magnetic 2D material discovered, monolayer (ML) CrI3, is particularly fascinating due to its ground state ferromagnetism. However, because ML materials are difficult to probe experimentally, much remains unresolved about ML CrI3’s structural, electronic, and magnetic properties. Here, we leverage Density Functional Theory (DFT) and high-accuracy Diffusion Monte Carlo (DMC) simulations to predict lattice parameters, magnetic moments, and spin–phonon and spin–lattice coupling of ML CrI3. We exploit a recently developed surrogate Hessian DMC line search technique to determine CrI3’s ML geometry with DMC accuracy, yielding lattice parameters in good agreement with recently published STM measurements—an accomplishment given the ~10% variability in previous DFT-derived estimates depending upon the functional. Strikingly, we find that previous DFT predictions of ML CrI3’s magnetic spin moments are correct on average across a unit cell but miss critical local spatial fluctuations in the spin density revealed by more accurate DMC. DMC predicts that magnetic moments in ML CrI3 are 3.62 μB per chromium and -0.145 μB per iodine, both larger than previous DFT predictions. The large disparate moments together with the large spin–orbit coupling of CrI3’s I-p orbital suggest a ligand superexchange-dominated magnetic anisotropy in ML CrI3, corroborating recent observations of magnons in its 2D limit. We also find that ML CrI3 exhibits a substantial spin–phonon coupling of ~3.32 cm-1. Our work, thus, establishes many of ML CrI3’s key properties, while also continuing to demonstrate the pivotal role that DMC can assume in the study of magnetic and other 2D materials.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

Projecting Future Energy Production from Operating Wind Farms in North America. Part I: Dynamical Downscaling

Abstract New simulations at 12-km grid spacing with the Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) Model nested in the MPI Earth System Model (ESM) are used to quantify possible changes in wind power generation potential as a result of global warming. Annual capacity factors (CF; measures of electrical power production) computed by applying a power curve to hourly wind speeds at wind turbine hub height from this simulation are also used to illustrate the pitfalls in seeking to infer changes in wind power generation directly from low-spatial-resolution and time-averaged ESM output. WRF-derived CF are evaluated using observed daily CF from operating wind farms. The spatial correlation coefficient between modeled and observed mean CF is 0.65, and the root-mean-square error is 5.4 percentage points. Output from the MPI-WRF Model chain also captures some of the seasonal variability and the probability distribution of daily CF at operating wind farms. Projections of mean annual CF (CF A ) indicate no change to 2050 in the southern Great Plains and Northeast. Interannual variability of CF A increases in the Midwest, and CF A declines by up to 2 percentage points in the northern Great Plains. The probability of wind droughts (extended periods with anomalously low production) and wind bonus periods (high production) remains unchanged over most of the eastern United States. The probability of wind bonus periods exhibits some evidence of higher values over the Midwest in the 2040s, whereas the converse is true over the northern Great Plains. Significance Statement Wind energy is playing an increasingly important role in low-carbon-emission electricity generation. It is a “weather dependent” renewable energy source, and thus changes in the global atmosphere may cause changes in regional wind power production (PP) potential. We use PP data from operating wind farms to demonstrate that regional simulations exhibit skill in capturing actual power production. Projections to the middle of this century indicate that over most of North America east of the Rocky Mountains annual expected PP is largely unchanged, as is the probability of extended periods of anomalously high or low production. Any small declines in annual PP are of much smaller magnitude than changes due to technological innovation over the last two decades.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2026

Absorption dissymmetry factor enhancement: A data-driven approach to unravel the synthesis knobs of chiral 2D perovskites

Chiral 2D metal halide perovskites (MHPs) are promising for spin-optoelectronic applications, yet their absorption dissymmetry factor (g abs ) exhibits significant variability due to complex, co-dependent structural and experimental factors. Here, we established a data-driven framework using Pearson’s correlation, ANOVA, and Gaussian process regression to identify and model key synthesis “knobs” governing these properties. The analysis revealed that solvent choice is the primary factor driving variability. For acetonitrile-based films, g abs was maximized by optimizing annealing temperature and film thickness. Conversely, films from higher boiling point solvents showed complex dependencies on annealing temperature, excitonic integral intensity, and film texture. These statistical correlations provide a roadmap for the rational design of high-performance chiral MHPs and establish a foundation for future machine learning-driven material exploration.

ANOVA↗

DOE OSTI2025

Can Restoring Tidal Wetlands Reduce Estuarine Nuisance Flooding of Coasts Under Future Sea‐Level Rise?

Wetland restoration is an increasingly popular nature‐based method for flood risk mitigation in coastal communities. In this study, we present a novel method using hydrodynamic modeling and harmonic analysis to quantify wetlands' ability to reduce future nuisance flooding. The method leverages a hydrodynamic model calibrated to present day data and was run for a range of future sea‐level rise (SLR) and wetland restoration scenarios to quantify changes to tidal harmonic amplitudes and phases. The harmonic constituents are used to generate water surface elevations over a time period of interest (e.g., one year) and compared to critical exceedance thresholds such as levee elevations. Then, changes to nuisance flooding are calculated by counting the number of hours critical thresholds are exceeded under different SLR and wetland restoration scenarios. We applied the method to Coos Bay, Oregon, USA as a test case. We found restoration reduces the number of hours nuisance flooding occurs in downtown Coos Bay from 15 hr (present day conditions) to 0 hr (fully restored condition) under median SLR (82 cm by 2100). Restoration had spatially variable impacts on reducing peak flood elevations with minimal impacts near the estuary mouth and greatest impact 32 km inland. The effectiveness of restoration was heavily dependent on future SLR. Restoration was maximally effective in 2050 under all SLR scenarios, less effective in 2100 under median SLR, and not effective under high SLR. Modeling results suggest increased tidal prism and accommodation space are driving restoration‐associated reductions in tidal amplitudes.

Brand, Matthew W. [Louisiana State Univ., Baton Ro↗

DOE OSTI2025

A generalizable machine learning-assisted fast Fourier transform algorithm to simulate the large strain phenomena in polycrystalline materials

Machine learning methods have shown initial promise in constitutive modeling for single crystals or homogenized polycrystals, delivering notable computational efficiency. However, existing machine learning-based constitutive models often lack generalizability, limiting their application across diverse boundary value problems. This study introduces a thermodynamics-informed artificial neural network model to accelerate rate-tangent crystal plasticity fast Fourier transform simulations for cross-scale deformation behaviors of polycrystals under complex loading. Our model integrates microstructural variability and local interactions effectively. To address local effects in each grain, we employ K-means clustering to group Gauss points within the microstructure into clusters assumed to be in similar mechanical states. This approach, based on self-clustering analysis, extends model scope from macroscopic stress response to the granular level, capturing mechanical responses and orientation evolution across grains. This reduces the number of nonlinear problems to solve, with cluster responses propagated throughout each group. The thermodynamics-based artificial neural network-extracted features are further processed using local material state clusters to account for history-dependent deformation and evolving microstructures. Additionally, representative volume element simulations with rate-tangent crystal plasticity fast Fourier transform provide reliable datasets for model training. The proposed model demonstrates high efficiency, accuracy, self-consistency, and enhanced generalizability in predicting strain–stress responses and orientation evolution at both individual grain and aggregate scales under complex loading conditions, such as biaxial tension and arbitrary loading scenarios.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Incorporating Social Vulnerability Variables in Measures to Quantify Access to Opportunities

Herein this study quantifies access to travel opportunities to understand what societal factors are linked with local access and to identify communities with reduced access. We introduce a method to compare accessibility across all census tracts in the United States that can be used across geographically diverse communities ranging from sparsely to densely populated areas. This study considers six key opportunities which we consider essential for all communities (grocery stores, public schools, daycares, primary care doctors, pharmacies, and parks), and six additional destinations which can be viewed as a social safety net (homeless shelters, women’s shelters, food pantries, libraries, vocational schools, and banks). We quantify accessibility to these opportunities within a 15 min walk, transit trip, bicycle ride, and automobile drive for every census tract in the United States, and observe a decrease in vehicle miles traveled and vehicle ownership in tracts with increased walkability. Through analysis at the census tract level, this study incorporates variables of social vulnerability with these cumulative opportunity metrics to better understand diminished accessibility as attributed to social and racial inequities. As example findings, we find decreased access to financial services in communities with high minority and limited English speaking populations, no apparent change in access for childcare in communities with high percentages of single-parent families, and potentially increased or decreased access to women’s healthcare resources for Black women depending on the travel mode.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Forced Component Estimation Statistical Method Intercomparison Project (ForceSMIP)

Anthropogenic climate change is unfolding rapidly, yet its regional manifestation can be obscured by internal variability. A primary goal of climate science is to identify the externally forced climate response from among the noise of internal variability. Separating the forced response from internal variability can be addressed in climate models by using a large ensemble to average over different possible realizations of internal variability. However, with only one realization of the real world, it is a major challenge to isolate the forced response directly in observations. In the Forced Component Estimation Statistical Method Intercomparison Project (ForceSMIP), contributors used existing and newly developed statistical and machine learning methods to estimate the forced response over 1950–2022 within individual realizations of the climate system. Participants used neural networks, linear inverse models, fingerprinting methods, and low-frequency component analysis, among other approaches. These methods were trained using large ensembles from multiple climate models and then applied to observations. Here, we evaluate method performance within large ensembles and investigate the estimates of the forced response in observations. Our results show that many different types of methods are skillful for estimating the forced response in climate models, though the relative skill of individual methods varies depending on the variable and evaluation metric. Methods with comparable skill in models can give a wide range of estimates of the forced response pattern in observations, illustrating the epistemic uncertainty in forced response estimates. ForceSMIP gives new insights into the forced response in observations, its uncertainty, and methods for its estimation.

Climate attribution↗

DOE OSTI2021

Optimal energy storage portfolio for high and ultrahigh carbon-free and renewable power systems

Achieving 100% carbon-free or renewable power systems can be facilitated by the deployment of energy storage technologies at all timescales, including short-duration, long-duration, and seasonal scales; however, most current literature focuses on cost assessments of energy storage for a given timescale or type of technology. In this work, we use an optimization framework with high spatial and temporal resolution to simultaneously assess the variable renewable power deployment and the optimal storage portfolio for seven independent system operators in the United States. Results indicate that achieving high (75–90%) and ultrahigh (>90%) energy mixes requires combining several flexibility options, including renewable curtailment, short-duration, long-duration, and seasonal storage. For instance, carbon-free and renewable energy mix targets of up to 80% are achieved with economic curtailment and a combination of short- and long-duration energy storage for the performance and cost assumptions used. After that, there is a point between 80% and 95% where seasonal storage becomes cost-competitive, depending on the specific power system. Moreover, our results indicate that storage-to-storage operation—one storage device used to charge another storage device—and the decoupling of charging and discharging storage power capacity are cost-effective options for the integration of high and ultrahigh shares of carbon-free or renewable power sources. Additionally, the results from this study show that an 85% carbon-free or renewable energy mix can be achieved at a cost of avoided CO 2 emissions of US$66.0 per tonne or less, regardless of the power system.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗