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Commercial, industrial, and institutional discount rate estimation for efficiency standards analysis: Sector-level data 1998–2023

Underlying each of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) federal appliance and equipment energy conservation standards are a set of complex analyses of the projected costs and benefits of regulation. Any new or amended standard must be designed to achieve significant additional energy conservation, provided that it is technologically feasible and economically justified (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(A)). DOE determines economic justification based on whether the benefits exceed the burdens, considering a variety of factors, including the economic impact of the standard on consumers of the product and the savings in lifetime operating cost compared to any increase in price or maintenance expenses (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(B)). As part of this determination, DOE conducts a life-cycle cost (LCC) analysis, which models the combined impact of appliance first cost and operating cost changes on a representative commercial building sample to identify the fraction of customers achieving LCC savings or incurring net cost at the considered efficiency levels. Thus, the commercial discount rate value(s) used to calculate the present value of energy cost savings within the LCC model implicitly plays a role in estimating the economic impact of potential standard levels. This report provides an in-depth discussion of the commercial discount rate estimation process relying on the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) to estimate a business’ cost of equity, and by adding a risk adjustment factor to the risk-free rate associated with long-term U.S. Treasury bonds to estimate their cost of debt. It is an update to previous reports on estimating commercial discount rates from firm-level and sector-level financial data (e.g., Fujita, 2021, 2016). Major topics covered in this report include the following: • Discount rate estimation methods and rationale • Data sources used and data limitations • Discount rate distributions for use in standards analysis • Discount rate estimation methods and distributions specific to the small business subgroup analysis.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Making Wireless Power Matter (CRADA Final Report)

The Resonant Link project team investigated the integration of their novel, self-resonant magnetic structure for electromagnetic coils into inductive wireless power transfer systems. Relative to conventional wireless power coils, their multi-layer self-resonant structure (the “MSRS”) reduces losses by up to 6x and lowers to BOM cost by up to 10x. These power-dense, cost-effective coils are a promising path towards the first value-add wireless power systems in a variety of applications, from phones to medical devices to kitchen appliances to mobile robots to electric vehicles. The researchers explored development of the power electronics for wireless power transfer systems using the multi-layer self-resonant structure (MSRS) concept that efficiently transmits power over air gaps for in-home applications, including through-wall power transfer, appliances built around the Ki and Qi standards, and other potential use cases This project specifically focused on the power electronics design, development, and testing for these applications. Resonant Link’s proprietary wireless power technology holds the promise of matching the performance of wired chargers in size and efficiency, especially when operated from a DC distribution grid.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Requirements for Soldering Fluxes Research using the B-53 Test Board

IPC J-STD-004B standard prescribes general requirements for the classification and testing of soldering flux for high qualify interconnections. This standard defines the classification of soldering materials through specifications of test methods and inspection criteria. The materials include liquid flux, paste flux, solderpaste flux, solder preform flux, and flux-cored solder. This research will use the proposed IPC-53 Surface Insulation Resistance (SIR) test patterns by means of an open comb (2D) and closed comb (3D to simulate a component over the comb pattern). The 2D open comb has uniformity of conductor spacing, sheet resistance, and flux outgassing. The 3D-closed comb simulates the effect of leadless or bottom-terminated components, which have non-uniform sheet resistance and flux outgassing. The response variables will include SIR testing and visual imaging. The objective is to investigate IPC test method improvements for characterizing soldering fluxes when using leadless components with narrow pad-to-pad spacing.

Diamond, Louis↗

Update on Development of a U.S. Rail Transport Capability for Spent Nuclear Fuel and High-Level Waste - 20466

This paper provides an overview of the progress to date, and discussion of the path forward, related to designing, fabricating and testing prototype railcars that will comply with the safety standard S-2043. This standard was developed by the Association of American Railroads (AAR) specifically for railcars used to transport High-Level Radioactive Material (HLRM). AAR defines the term HLRM to include both spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and high-level radioactive waste (HLW). DOE is in the process of developing and testing prototype railcars that will satisfy Standard S-2043. This is a technical paper that does not take into account contractual limitations or obligations under the Standard Contract for Disposal of Spent Nuclear Fuel and/or High-Level Radioactive Waste (Standard Contract) (10 CFR Part 961). For example, under the provisions of the Standard Contract, spent nuclear fuel in multi-assembly canisters is not an acceptable waste form, absent a mutually agreed to contract amendment. To the extent discussions or recommendations in this paper conflict with the provisions of the Standard Contract, the Standard Contract governs the obligations of the parties, and this paper in no manner supersedes, overrides, or amends the Standard Contract. This paper reflects technical work which could support future decision making by the Department of Energy (DOE or Department). No inferences should be drawn from this paper regarding future actions by DOE, which are limited both by the terms of the Standard Contract and a lack of Congressional appropriations for the Department to fulfill its obligations under the Nuclear Waste Policy Act including licensing and construction of a spent nuclear fuel repository. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

From Silos to Synergy: Identifying a Roadmap for Cross-Sector Research to Accelerate the Clean Energy Transition

The U.S. Department of Energy's blueprints for the transportation, buildings, and electricity sectors call for substantial reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050. These plans focus on zero-emission vehicles, investments in transit, energy-efficient buildings, and the widespread adoption and deployment of renewable energy technologies like solar photovoltaics (PV), energy storage and energy-efficient appliances. However, these sectors are often studied and modeled in isolation, overlooking how household decisions to adopt clean technologies in one sector influence others. This study, led by an interdisciplinary team at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), explores opportunities for cross-sector collaboration to drive more effective and equitable decarbonization. Through discussions with 22 NREL researchers across transportation, building, solar, and grid sectors, the study highlights the need for integrated tools and models that capture interactions between these sectors. Key insights include the need for data standardization and interoperability to enable cross-sector analysis and decision-making. Strengthening utility partnerships is also critical to align energy policies with decarbonization goals and manage the increased demand for renewable energy. The study also emphasizes the importance of equity in the clean energy transition, calling for targeted incentives and support to ensure that low-income and underserved communities benefit from clean technologies like electric vehicles and energy-efficient appliances. To support these efforts, innovative funding mechanisms must be expanded to facilitate interdisciplinary research, such as city-specific decarbonization plans and federal projects like DOE"s Standard Scenarios. By encouraging collaboration and integrating cross-sector insights, this study aims to provide a roadmap to accelerate the clean energy transition and ensure it is both sustainable and inclusive.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

A Better Method to Calculate Fuel Burnup in Pebble Bed Reactors Using Machine Learning

Burnup measurement is an important step in material control and accountancy (MC&A) at nuclear reactors, and may be done by examining gamma spectra of fuel samples. Traditional approaches rely on known correlations to specific photopeaks (e.g. 137 Cs) and operate via a standard linear regression method. However, the quality of these regression methods is limited even in the best case, and is significantly poorer at short fuel cool-down times, due to the elevated radiation background by short life-time isotopes, and self-shielding effect of the fuel. For practical operation of pebble bed reactors (PBRs), quick measurements (in minutes) and short cooling times (in hours) are required from a safety and security perspective. We investigated the efficacy and performance of machine learning (ML) methods to predict the burnup of the pebble fuel from full gamma spectra (rather than specific discrete photopeaks) and found a full-spectrum ML approach to far outperform baseline regression predictions in all measurement and cooling conditions - including in operational-like measurement conditions. We also performed model and data ablation experiments to determine the relative performance impact of our ML methods' capacity to model data nonlinearities and the inherent additional information in full spectra. Applying our ML methods, we found a number of surprising results, including improved accuracy at shorter fuel cooling times (the opposite of the norm), remarkable robustness to spectrum compression (via rebinning), and competitive burnup predictions even when using background signal only (i.e. explicitly omitting known isotope photopeaks).

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Photovoltaic Module R&D Considerations for Soiling Mitigation

Photovoltaic (PV) modules work best in the sunniest environments. Unfortunately, often the sunniest places also have substantial amounts of airborne "dust" that deposits on the front surface of the modules and blocks the sunlight; reducing energy output. In fact, natural soiling has reduced the energy output of PV systems since the technology was first used, and viable mitigation strategies have remained elusive ever since. With the ever-increasing deployments around the world, especially in dusty environments, soiling is becoming a billion-dollar problem, worldwide. While substantial work has been done to examine and resolve some of the issues with PV soiling, often mitigation comes down to physically cleaning the modules. However, a more systematic evaluation of the different module properties correlations to soiling mitigation needs to be done. In many instances, the causal connections between module properties and soiling are simply not known. This lack of knowledge results in a substantial increase in time and effort to evaluate and qualify appropriate soiling mitigation protocols based on site specific issues and the intrinsic module properties that are typically not optimized for mitigating soiling in a given environment. Thus, module property protocols and/or standards are needed to more quickly help identify appropriate module and site-specific mitigation.

mitagation↗

How “hot” are hotspots: Statistically localizing the high-activity areas on soil and rhizosphere images

The topic of microbial hotspots in soil requires not only visualizing their spatial distribution and biochemical analyses, but also statistical approaches to identify these hotspots and separate them from the surrounding activities (background). We hypothesized that each hotspot type (e.g. enzyme activities in the rhizosphere, root exudation, localization of herbicide accumulation) is a result of local process driven by biotic and/or abiotic factors, and the process rates in the hotspots are much faster than those in the soil background. We further hypothesized that the background and hotspot activities in soil belong to different statistical distributions. Consequently, hotspot determination should be based on statistical separation of activities significantly higher than the background. We analyzed for the statistical distributions of grey values on three groups of published images: 1) 14 C images of carbon input by roots into the rhizosphere, 2) 14 C glyphosate accumulation in the plant, and 3) zymogram of leucine aminopeptidase activity in rooted soil. The two Gaussian distributions were fit (the first representing the background, the second the hotspots) to the distribution of grey values in the images, the parameters (means and standard deviations, SD) of the fitted distributions were calculated, and the background was removed. Thus, we identified hotspots as areas outside of the Mean+2SD image intensity (corresponding to the upper ~ 2.5% of activity, being over 97.5% of background values) and finally, visualized images of solely hotspot locations. Finally, these results were compared with previously used decisions on hotspot intensity thresholding (i.e. Top-25% and 17 standard thresholding approaches in ImageJ) and discussed the advantages of the Mean+2SD as well as Mean+3SD approaches. These advantages include: i) simple unification of the thresholding approach for several imaging methods with various principles of activity distribution, ii) identification of hotspots with various activity levels, iii) analysis of “time-specific” hotspots in temporal sequences of images. Compared with 17 standard thresholding methods, we concluded that objectively elucidating and separating the hotspots should be based on statistical distribution analysis, e.g. using the Mean+2SD or Mean+3SD approaches. Furthermore, this simple Mean+2SD approach delivered suitable results for three groups of images and so, helps to understand the processes responsible for the highest activities and elucidate hotspots.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Distributed Energy Resource Cybersecurity Standards Development [Final Report]

Currently, the solar industry is operating with little application-specific guidance on how to protect and defend their systems from cyberattacks. This 3-year Department of Energy (DOE) Solar Energy Technologies Office-funded project helped advance the distributed energy resource (DER) cybersecurity state-of-the-art by (a) bolstering industry awareness of cybersecurity concepts, risks, and solutions through a webinar series and (b) developing recommendations for DER cybersecurity standards to improve the security performance of DER products and networks. Drafting DER standards is a lengthy, consensus-based process requiring effective leadership and stakeholder participation. This project was designed to reduce standard and guide writing times by creating well-researched recommendations that could act as a starting place for national and international standards development organizations. Working within the SunSpec/Sandia DER Cybersecurity Workgroup, the team produced guidance for DER cybersecurity certification, communication protocol standards, network architecture s, access control, and patching. The team also led subgroups within the IEEE P 1547.3 Guide for Cybersecurity of Distributed Energy Resources Interconnected with Electric Power Systems committee and pushed a draft to ballot in October 2021.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Transporting Non-Compliant TRU Wastes in the OPTIMUS{sup TM} Packages - 20493

The OPTIMUS{sup TM} product line of packages was developed with the purpose of providing a versatile and modular packaging option for shipping problematic wastes and fissile material contents. The product line includes a high-activity design in the OPTIMUS-H and a low activity design in the OPTIMUS-L. The two variants utilize a singular containment vessel design, that is enclosed in different protective components that offer different levels of shielding along with thermal and impact protection. The thick shielding provided by the OPTIMUS-H packaging allows for higher activity contents than the OPTIMUS-L to be transported. But the lightweight design of the OPTIMUS-L packaging allows for more packages to be transported in a single shipment. The containment vessel design shared between the two packages provides leak-tight containment of all radioactive contents along with the capabilities to easily leak test and the option to inert and backfill the contents, as necessary, prior to each shipment of the package. Together the OPTIMUS package designs offer significant flexibility and are capable of handling a wide variety of waste materials and other radioactive contents. One of the primary contents covered in the initial design effort for these packages is TRU waste contents beyond the standard waste materials that are compliant with the WIPP Waste Acceptance Criteria. More specifically, the initial content of interest is TRU Waste drums containing sealed containers with potentially flammable gases. While there are multiple other packaging options available for transporting standard WIPP compliant TRU wastes, the goal of the OPTIMUS packages is to offer a superior option for transporting both standard TRU wastes as well as the more problematic non-compliant wastes, among other contents. The non-compliant TRU waste contents explicitly included for the OPTIMUS packages are standard aerosol cans and DOT 3E lecture bottles. However, the methods applied for the package containment can be easily adjusted to cover other sealed container types with potentially flammable gases. The primary challenges with including these items are both the obvious issue of potential for flammable gases (e.g. aerosol propellants) in the package, but also the uncertainty in the exact state of the contents. Because these desired contents are waste materials, the characterization of the materials present in the waste may include some uncertainties. For example, though it may be known that there are one or more aerosol cans in a TRU waste drum, it may not be known if this can is full, spent, or anywhere in between. Also there may be equal uncertainty in the contents of the aerosol can, specifically in the potentially flammable propellant remaining in the can. To include these types of non-compliant items as acceptable contents for the package, the methods utilized in the safety analyses of the OPTIMUS packages must consider all of the uncertainties in the characterization of the waste. The methods utilized cover a range of concerns with transporting contents of this nature including pressure buildup, gas generation, and gaseous combustion for demonstrating the containment of the package. The ability to transport these problematic contents in the OPTIMUS packages gives TRU waste generating sites the option to relocate these drums to an offsite location where the non-compliant items can be properly managed through removal or destruction. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Energy Saving Analysis Using Energy Intensity Usage and Specific Energy Consumption Methods

This study presents the energy saving analysis reached through employing the energy intensity usage and specific energy consumption method. The energy analyses conducted in this study are used for implementing a new technology. However, they are additionally used to evaluate the latest concepts, techniques, processes, and uses for technologies, which are aimed at improvement of energy savings. This study shows the correlation between energy consumption, potential energy savings, and the impact of the energy assessment in different industrial sectors. The correlation is found by using two indicators: (1) the energy intensity usage (EIU) and (2) the specific energy consumption (SEC). The data analysis in this study considers the assessments for 67 industries from 2015 to 2019 and classifies those assessments using the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) code. The results show that energy savings and energy consumption are linearly related. Also, the energy assessment improves energy performance in a more significant way for smaller companies than for larger industries. Furthermore, these results can be extrapolated by identifying the potential benefits of the energy management system (EMS) implementation.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Security Enhancements for Distributed Energy Resource Systems Interconnected with Distribution Networks: Final Technical Report

The revised IEEE 1547 Standard defines new complex communication-adjustable voltage and frequency regulation and ride-through characteristics, while maintaining the general antiislanding requirement for unintentional islanding situations. Unintentional islanding is prohibited while intentional islanding is specifically allowed, thus effectively enabling microgrid operation mode. Further, IEEE 1547-2018 Standard introduces new requirements in terms of interoperability so that the DER plant/circuit segments may be seamlessly integrated with the utility networks but at the same time become vulnerable to a cyber-attack. Traditional cybersecurity measures including encryption, authentication and role-based access control may not be fully implementable to all communication protocols specified in the IEEE 1547 Standard. Therefore, in this project we have identified, researched, implemented and tested several cyberphysical approaches that rely mostly on the behavior of the DER circuit and may help with validating the incoming command and control action potentially coming through an insecure communications channel. Additionally, we have built semantic models and communications profiles for DER facilities and have implemented lightweight IEC 61850 based publisher-subscriber GOOSE messaging mechanism, with security extensions in terms of authentication and encryption. The project proposed information models for integration into UCA OpenFMB 2.0 profiles focusing on grid code compliance.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

INTERSECT Architecture Specification: System-of-systems Architecture (Version 0.5)

Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL)’s Self-driven Experiments for Science / Interconnected ScienceEcosystem (INTERSECT) architecture project, titled “An Open Federated Architecture for the Laboratory of the Future”, creates an open federated hardware/software architecture for the laboratory of the future using a novel system of systems (SoS) and microservice architecture approach, connecting scientific instruments, robot-controlled laboratories and edge/center computing/data resources to enable autonomous experiments, “self-driving” laboratories, smart manufacturing, and artificial intelligence (AI)-driven design, discovery and evaluation. The architecture project is divided into three focus areas: design patterns; SoS architecture; and microservices architecture. The design patterns area focuses on describing science use cases as design patterns that identify and abstract the involved hardware/software components and their interactions interms of control, work and data flow. The SoS architecture area focuses on an open architecture specification for the federated ecosystem that clarifies terms, architectural elements, the interactions between them and compliance. The microservices architecture describes blueprints for loosely coupled microservices, standardized interfaces, and multi-programming language support. This document is the SoS Architecture specification only, and captures the system of systems architecture design for the INTERSECT Initiative and its components. It is intended to provide a deep analysis and specification of how the INTERSECT platform will be designed, and to link the scientific needs identified across disciplines with the technical needs involved in the support, development, and evolution of a science ecosystem. PLEASE NOTE: This is a working document and reflects current discussions and design activity among the authors. There may be inconsistencies within the document as different parts evolve at a different pace. We invite comments and thoughts from the public on this and following working drafts. The first finished version of this document is scheduled for release in September 2023.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Italian prototype building models for urban scale building performance simulation

Urban building energy modeling (UBEM) seeks to evaluate strategies to optimize building energy use at urban scale to support a city's building energy goals. Prototype building models are usually developed to represent typical urban building characteristics of a specific use type, construction year, and climate zone, as detailed characteristics of individual buildings at urban scale are difficult to obtain. This study investigated the Italian building stock, developing 46 building prototypes, based on construction year, for residential and office buildings. The study included 16 single-family buildings, 16 multi-family buildings, and 14 office buildings. Building envelope properties and heating, ventilation, and air conditioning system characteristics were defined according to existing building energy codes and standards for climatic zone E, which covers about half the Italian municipalities. Novel contributions of this study include (1) detailed specifications of prototype building energy models for Italian residential and office buildings that can be adopted by UBEM tools, and (2) a dataset in GeoJSON format of Italian urban buildings compiled from diverse data sources and national standards. Finally, the developed prototype building specifications, the building dataset, and the workflow can be applied to create other building prototypes and to support Italian national building energy efficiency and environmental goals.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Infusible Thermoplastic Composites for Wind Turbine Blade Manufacturing: Fatigue Life of Thermoplastic Laminates under Ambient and Low-Temperature Conditions

Traditionally, thermoset resins such as polyesters (PE) and epoxies are used as the polymer matrix for construction of wind turbine blades. However, concern about their end-of-life treatment garners interest to use thermoplastics for increased recyclability. However, the high viscosity of molten thermoplastics inhibits their use in manufacturing wind turbine blades with injection or compression molding. A recently developed, infusible, reactive thermoplastic resin overcomes this technological barrier. Toward verifying that this recyclable resin is suitable for use in wind turbine blades, a dataset of R?=?0.1 and R?=?10 fatigue data for glass fiber-reinforced acrylic composites is provided and equal fatigue life to industry standard epoxy and unsaturated PE resin systems is demonstrated. Specifically, R?=?0.1 fatigue data for acrylic composites at room temperature and -30?degrees C for verification of low-temperature performance are tabulated. To elucidate failure mechanisms, in situ mechanical testing with X-ray computed tomography demonstrates that damage accumulation occurs by crack propagation along the fiber-matrix interface under cyclic loading. Infrared (IR) thermography predicts failure points in composites specimens with porosity defects introduced from nonideal manufacturing processes. Furthermore, these manufacturing defects are shown to compromise the fatigue life of the acrylic laminates by an order of magnitude.

effect of defects↗

Prostate Bed Delineation Guidelines for Postoperative Radiation Therapy: On Behalf Of The Francophone Group of Urological Radiation Therapy

Prostate bed (PB) irradiation is considered the standard postoperative treatment after radical prostatectomy (RP) for tumors with high-risk features or persistent prostate-specific antigen, or for salvage treatment in case of biological relapse. Four consensus guidelines have been published to standardize practices and reduce the interobserver variability in PB delineation but with discordant recommendations. To improve the reproducibility in the PB delineation, the Francophone Group of Urological Radiotherapy (Groupe Francophone de Radiothérapie Urologique [GFRU]) worked to propose a new and more reproducible consensus guideline for PB clinical target volume (CTV) definition.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

PICOSEC-Micromegas Detector, an innovative solution for Lepton Time Tagging

The PICOSEC-Micromegas (PICOSEC-MM) detector is a novel gaseous detector designed for precise timing resolution in experimental measurements. It eliminates time jitter from charged particles in ionization gaps by using extreme UV Cherenkov light emitted in a crystal, detected by a Micromegas photodetector with an appropriate photocathode. The first single-channel prototype tested in 150 GeV/c muon beams achieved a timing resolution below 25 ps, a significant improvement compared to standard Micropattern Gaseous Detectors (MPGDs). This work explores the specifications for applying these detectors in monitored neutrino beams for the ENUBET Project. Key aspects include exploring resistive technologies, resilient photocathodes, and scalable electronics. New 7-pad resistive detectors are designed to handle the particle flux. In this paper, two potential scenarios are briefly considered: tagging electromagnetic showers with a timing resolution below 30ps in an electromagnetic calorimeter as well as individual particles (mainly muons) with about 20ps respectively.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗