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At least 289 records · Page 16

Considering uncertainties expands the lower tail of maize yield projections

Crop yields are sensitive to extreme weather events. Improving the understanding of the mechanisms and the drivers of the projection uncertainties can help to improve decisions. Previous studies have provided important insights, but often sample only a small subset of potentially important uncertainties. Here we expand on a previous statistical modeling approach by refining the analyses of two uncertainty sources. Specifically, we assess the effects of uncertainties surrounding crop-yield model parameters and climate forcings on projected crop yield. We focus on maize yield projections in the eastern U.S.in this century. We quantify how considering more uncertainties expands the lower tail of yield projections. We characterized the relative importance of each uncertainty source and show that the uncertainty surrounding yield model parameters is the main driver of yield projection uncertainty.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

w22_laser_radiography - Laser-Based MeV Radiography

This project seeks to develop novel x-ray sources based on high-power short-pulse lasers with unique advantages, including small spot size, flexible configuration, and tailorable spectra. Kinetic plasma simulations using the VPIC particle in cell code will be performed to support the R&D goals of this project. If successful, this effort will allow LANL to deploy flexible, compact x-ray sources for static tomographic radiography and dynamic multi-axis radiography at our firing sites and facilities such as pRad and U1a. The higher resolution, shorter pulse duration, and tunability of our proposed sources will enable new applications in the weapons program and broader scientific community. This effort advances the LANL FY22 Strategic Investment Plan priority of “[r]adiographic tools for dynamic and static imaging with improved spatial and temporal resolution, sensitivity, and dose.”

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Advanced Modeling and Simulation to Characterize Advanced Boiling Water Reactor Source Terms to Support a Regulatory Approval Pathway for Right-Sized Emergency Planning Zone. Advanced Boiling Water Reactor (A-BWR) Project Phase 2

The United States Department of Energy (US DOE) is currently supporting the development of various small modular reactor (SMR), microreactor and advanced reactor designs. These reactors have improved safety features as compared to conventional Large Light Water Reactors (LLWRs), which include features that improve potential reduction of radiological source terms in the event of design and beyond-design basis accidents. Specifically, some reactors feature a relatively smaller containment volume with respect to the available surface area for fission product deposition; these include Integrated Pressurized Water Reactors (iPWRs), such as the NuScale SMR and SMR-type Boiling Water Reactors (BWRs) such as General Electric-Hitachi’s BWRX-300 design.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Building Monitoring and Energy Efficiency Training for Small and Mid-Sized Commercial Buildings in Non-Urbanized Areas of Alaska

The goal of this project was to create an effective training that increases understanding, competency and capacity in monitoring critical building data. Mentorship, verification and follow-up ensured participants now have necessary skills to install and maintain building monitoring systems. This training sought to empower building managers and maintenance staff to properly and efficiently operate their buildings for energy savings and increased lifespan of equipment. Through the project, participants’ knowledge of the building was increased through hands-on training using a familiar building environment and eliminating common barriers to effective training through peer-to peer delivery. In successful cases the host organization will save money and resources due to more efficient operation of building equipment already in place.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

The Response of Precipitation Extremes to the Twentieth- and Twenty-First-Century Global Temperature Change in a Comprehensive Suite of CESM1 Large Ensemble Simulation: Revisiting the Role of Forcing Agents Vs. the Role of Forcing Magnitudes

The response of precipitation extremes (PEs) to global warming is found to be nonlinear in Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) and other global climate models (Pendergrass et al., 2019), which led to the concern that it is not accurate to approximate the response of PE to a single forcing as the difference between simulations with all forcing agents and those that exclude one specific forcing. This calls into question previous model-based results that the sensitivity of PE with warming due to aerosol forcing is significantly larger than that due to greenhouse gases (GHGs). We reevaluate the PE sensitivity to GHGs and aerosols using available CESM1 ensemble simulations. We show that although the PE response to warming is nonlinear in CESM1, especially for the high warming projected in the twenty-first-century, PE sensitivity to aerosols is still significantly stronger than that due to GHGs when the comparison is made within similar warming regimes to avoid the bias induced by the nonlinear behavior. But the difference is smaller than previously estimated. We also conclude that the additivity assumption is largely valid to isolate the PE response due to aerosol forcing from the paired simulations including the “all forcing” experiment when the warming regime is small (e.g., 1°C–2°C in the next few decades when aerosol forcing is projected to decline and becomes a major source of uncertainty for model projection).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Measurement-induced phase transition in teleportation and wormholes

We demonstrate that some quantum teleportation protocols exhibit measurement induced phase transitions in Sachdev-Ye-Kitaev model. Namely, Kitaev-Yoshida and Gao-Jafferis-Wall protocols have a phase transition if we apply them at a large projection rate or at a large coupling rate respectively. It is well-known that at small rates they allow teleportation to happen only within a small time-window. We show that at large rates, the system goes into a new steady state, where the teleportation can be performed at any moment. In dual Jackiw-Teitelboim gravity these phase transitions correspond to the formation of an eternal traversable wormhole. In the Kitaev-Yoshida case this novel type of wormhole is supported by continuous projections.

Physics↗

On the Viability of Video Imaging in Leak Rate Quantification: A Theoretical Error Analysis

Optical gas imaging through multispectral cameras is a promising technique for mitigation of methane emissions through localization and quantification of emissions sources. While more advanced cameras developed in recent years have led to lower uncertainties in measuring gas concentrations, a systematic analysis of the uncertainties associated with leak rate estimation have been overlooked. We present a systematic categorization of the involved uncertainties with a focus on a theoretical analysis of projection uncertainties that are inherent to this technique. The projection uncertainties are then quantified using Large Eddy Simulation experiments of a point source release into the atmosphere. Our results show that while projection uncertainties are typically about 5% of the emission rate, low acquisition times and observation of the gas plume at small distances from the emission source (<10 m) can amount to errors of about 20%. Further, we found that acquisition times on the order of tens of seconds are sufficient to significantly reduce (>50%) the projection uncertainties. These findings suggest robust procedures on how to reduce projection uncertainties, however, a balance between other sources of uncertainty due to operational conditions and the employed instrumentation are required to outline more practical guidelines.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

High Fidelity Digital Twins for BWRX-300 Critical Systems

This project developed and demonstrated digital-twin technology for advanced nuclear systems under the ARPA-E GEMINA program, with a focus on the BWRX-300 small modular reactor. The primary objective was to reduce operation and maintenance (O&M) costs through predictive health monitoring and model-based fault detection. The project combined MIT’s high-fidelity physics models and machine-learning and digital-twin algorithms, and GE Hitachi’s digital-twin algorithms and operational expertise to build physics-based digital twins capable of real-time system monitoring and maintenance scheduling.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Porin-Inspired Ionomers with sub-nm Gated Ion Channels for High Ion Conductivity and Selectivity (Final Project Report (2026))

The physiological functions of living systems heavily rely on biological ion channels, whose malfunction can lead to disease. These channels enable selective and regulated transport of water, ions, or small molecules across membranes. Analogously, ionomers used in energy conversion and storage technologies govern ion transport within membrane separators and catalyst binder layers. This DOE Office of Science Early CAREER project aimed to achieve molecular-level control over ionic conductivity and ion permselectivity by translating the functionalities of biological, gated ion channels into a novel class of ion-conducting polymers (ionomers) incorporating macrocyclic calix[4]arene-based repeat units. The overarching goal was to establish fundamental design principles and elucidate proton conduction mechanisms through strategic design of macrocyclic calix[4]arene-containing ionomers, with close relevance to energy conversion and storage devices, including proton exchange membrane fuel cells (PEMFCs). The project leveraged sub-nm-sized macrocyclic pores to facilitate exceptionally fast ion transport (beneficial to addressing sluggish ORR kinetics of PEMFC electrodes) and achieve functionalities of ionic diodes under applied electrochemical fields, beneficial for selective transport/separation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Proposed Products to Support Shelter-Evacuation Decision Making in the Event of a Nuclear Detonation

Response strategies implemented in the first few hours to days after a nuclear detonation on the US homeland may save more than 100,000 lives. Effective planning and pre-event capability development can increase the response efficacy and so the number of lives saved. During such an event, the US Department of Defense, Joint Task Force Civil Support (DoD JTF-CS) provides command and control for the DoD forces supporting civil authority response operations. Among other activities, JTF-CS expects to support FEMA as well as State and local agencies in shelter and evacuation response activities. JTF-CS currently uses a manual method to generate evacuation decision making products. This method compares the dose that would be (a) acquired remaining at a given location to that (b) acquired during evacuation along a small number of routes. In these products, evacuation may be warranted when the projected “remain” dose is greater than the “evacuate” dose. This method only provides a limited consideration of the protection buildings provide their occupants. To inform the JTF-CS nuclear detonation response, the DoD Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) has tasked Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) to design a set of planning and response products to support shelter-evacuation activities. This report documents these products to facilitate DTRA and JTF-CS planning efforts. To provide context, we also provide appendices that summarize US planning guidance response zones, early (<72 h) response strategies, and other key topics.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

High-Silicon Steel Strip by Single-Step Shear Deformation Processing

It is well known that Fe-Si alloys with Si content higher than in conventional electrical sheet steels (>3.2% Si) can make a significant impact in improving the efficiency of electrical motors if they are available in sheet/foil (strip) forms at suitable cost. While the magnetic and electrical attributes (e.g., resistivity, core loss) of these high-Si Fe alloys, of relevance to electrical motor core laminations, are known to be exceptional, the alloys have limited workability, making them difficult to produce consistently in sheet/foil (strip) forms. Current processing techniques such as rolling, while adequate for producing conventional electrical steel sheet, do have important disadvantages - large energy consumption and emissions, limitations in processing of low-workability alloys (e.g., high-Si content steels), large-scale plant infrastructure, and less than adequate capability to engineer sheet metals with specific microstructures (e.g., fine-grained) and crystallographic textures (e.g., shear textures). It is therefore of interest to have an alternative commercial process that can produce sheet/foil (strip) from high-Si Fe alloys and which can also overcome some of the deficiencies of current multistage strip processes. The goal of the present project was design and demonstration of a new energy-efficient pilot process for producing high-Si electrical steel strip of commercial widths and thickness, and with superior electrical and magnetic properties than current electrical steels (Fe-3.2% Si as benchmark). The applications domain for these steels is electrical motor core laminations. We have addressed this goal by accomplishment of the following specific objectives and tasks: a) Development of an Fe-4Si-4Cr alloy with electrical resistivity >80 μΩ-cm, induction flux density >1.48 T at 5000 A/m and core loss 35% lower than the benchmark 3.2% Si alloy. The alloy which meets DOE target specifications for motor core attributes was designed with the Si content controlled for the electrical properties and the Cr content tailored to meet material/process workability requirements. b) A unique machining-based deformation processing system was designed and scaled-up to produce strip of commercial width (25 mm to 150 mm) and thickness (up to 0.5 mm) from the Fe-4Si-4Cr alloy and other alloys of varied workability including copper, Al6061-T6 and naval brass. The key attributes of the machining-based strip production are deformation processing by concentrated simple-shear; single-step production of strip from ingot using compact machine infrastructure; strip surface finish of Ra 0.35 to 1 micrometer that is comparable/superior to that of rolled strip; discrete production of strip that can potentially be done at point of use; and controllability of strip mechanical/formability properties by deformation control. c) The electrical, magnetic, surface quality, mechanical, formability, and metallurgical properties/attributes of the machining-based strip were established by direct ASTM standard or equivalent measurement techniques. d) Punching characteristics of the strip in terms of load, edge quality and macro defects were similar to those of conventional 3.2% Si electrical steels. These punching characteristics are critical from a manufacturability perspective for motor/transformer core applications. e) A modeling framework for energy analysis of multistage rolling and the machining-based deformation processing has been established. Application of this modeling to the two strip-processes showed that the machining-based process requires significantly lower specific energy for processing, ~ 25% of that for rolling. The modeling framework can be adapted for a range of sheet-metal forming, bulk metal forming, and machining processes. It can be used to identify key parameters controlling process specific energy. f) A comparative analysis of advantages and disadvantages of machining-based processing against rolling for strip production. The single stage machining-based processing, with compact infrastructure, represents a new manufacturing paradigm for sheet and foil manufacturing that can potentially also be applied to advanced titanium, aluminum, copper and magnesium alloys. The goals and objectives were accomplished by a cross-disciplinary project team comprising of personnel from Purdue University; M4 Sciences LLC, a small-business focused on advanced manufacturing technology development; the Pacific Northwest National Labs; and tool manufacturers. The team is currently in advanced discussions with multiple entities for future process development for commercialization.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A Sub-Threshold Low-Power Integrated Bandpass Filter for Highly-Integrated Spectrum Analyzers

Low-power analog filter banks provide frequency analysis with minimal power and space requirements, making them viable solutions for integrated remote audio- and vibration-sensing applications. Compared with their digital counterparts, analog filter banks are better suited to achieve the lower power consumption necessary for IoT applications, while maintaining high dynamic range and a wide operational frequency range. In this work, the design and implementation of a sub-threshold complementary metal-oxide semiconductor (CMOS) integrated low-power tunable analog filter channel for signal spectrum analysis and signal discrimination is presented. Project specifications required a programmable, high-order, monolithic bandpass filter channel with small chip area, low power consumption, high dynamic range, and wide operational frequency range. The 8th-order filter channel presented in this work provides an effective Q-factor of 4.5 and a minimum dynamic range (DR) of approximately 85 dB, while allowing for tuning across a range of center frequencies from 2 kHz to 100 kHz, with power consumption of a single 8th-order filter channel measured at 256 µW nominally at the highest center frequency. An integrated analog Gm-C filter topology was selected for this application. Functionally, the high-Q bandpass filter transfer function is implemented via four cascaded 2nd-order filter cells, resulting in a single 8th-order filter channel, fabricated in 130-nm 1.2-V CMOS technology, suitable for use in monolithic integrated spectral analysis (MISA1) applications.

Long, Gavin B.↗

Novel Lightweight, Low-Cost Heliostat for Concentrating Solar Power (SBIR Phase I Final Report)

The overall goal of this Department of Energy (DOE) SBIR Phase I project was to demonstrate the feasibility of the L.Garde, Inc. heliostat mirror facet for use in concentrated solar power applications. Prior to this Phase I project, L.Garde, Inc. developed a design for a lightweight and low cost mirror facet and successfully fabricated small scale (0.667 m 2 ) with a mirror surface flatness of 0.7 mrad. Therefore, the focus of the Phase I effort was to (1) demonstrate scalability by fabricating larger size mirrors while retaining the same mirror surface flatness, (2) demonstrate the design can withstand operating environment conditions through field testing, and (3) perform cost analysis to show the heliostat mirror facet design can meet DoE goals of < 12 kg/m2 and <$30/m 2 . During the Phase I project, L.Garde successfully fabricated large area (1.395 m 2 ) heliostat mirror facets, with a mass per unit area of 8 kg/m 2 and a cost of $29.80/m 2 . Surface flatness measurements (using contact probe technique) were performed on the mirror surface and results showed a flatness of 0.68 mrad, which were in agreement with previously fabricated small scale mirror facets. Slope error measurements was also performed on the mirror surface and results showed a slope error of 0.77 mrad which also was in agreement with previously fabricated small scale mirror facets. One large area mirror facet was subjected to a three (3) month field test. Surface flatness and slope error measurements were performed on the mirror surface after the field test and results were 0.663 mrad and 0.58 mrad respectively. The large scale heliostat mirror facets were also subjected to accelerated aging. However, during this exposure we observed failure due to the breaking of the mirror facets. Further investigation into the source of the failure showed that the mirror component alone showed signs of degradation during the same accelerated aging test. We believe that moisture ingress is occurring when subjected to high humidity, leading to buildup of water with the layers of protective paints and resulting in mirror breakage when water expands in freezing conditions. In order to mitigate or eliminate this issue, a new weatherproofing strategy may be implemented or a new mirror component may be used that is able to survive accelerated aging conditions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

The Aemulus Project. VI. Emulation of Beyond-standard Galaxy Clustering Statistics to Improve Cosmological Constraints

Abstract There is untapped cosmological information in galaxy redshift surveys in the nonlinear regime. In this work, we use the Aemulus suite of cosmological N -body simulations to construct Gaussian process emulators of galaxy clustering statistics at small scales (0.1–50 h −1 Mpc) in order to constrain cosmological and galaxy bias parameters. In addition to standard statistics—the projected correlation function w p ( r p ), the redshift-space monopole of the correlation function ξ 0 ( s ), and the quadrupole ξ 2 ( s )—we emulate statistics that include information about the local environment, namely the underdensity probability function P U ( s ) and the density-marked correlation function M ( s ). This extends the model of Aemulus III for redshift-space distortions by including new statistics sensitive to galaxy assembly bias. In recovery tests, we find that the beyond-standard statistics significantly increase the constraining power on cosmological parameters of interest: including P U ( s ) and M ( s ) improves the precision of our constraints on Ω m by 27%, σ 8 by 19%, and the growth of structure parameter, f σ 8 , by 12% compared to standard statistics. We additionally find that scales below ∼6 h −1 Mpc contain as much information as larger scales. The density-sensitive statistics also contribute to constraining halo occupation distribution parameters and a flexible environment-dependent assembly bias model, which is important for extracting the small-scale cosmological information as well as understanding the galaxy–halo connection. This analysis demonstrates the potential of emulating beyond-standard clustering statistics at small scales to constrain the growth of structure as a test of cosmic acceleration.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Data-driven variational multiscale reduced order models

We propose a new data-driven reduced order model (ROM) framework that centers around the hierarchical structure of the variational multiscale (VMS) methodology and utilizes data to increase the ROM accuracy at a modest computational cost. The VMS methodology is a natural fit for the hierarchical structure of the ROM basis: In the first step, we use the ROM projection to separate the scales into three categories: (i) resolved large scales, (ii) resolved small scales, and (iii) unresolved scales. In the second step, we explicitly identify the VMS–ROM closure terms, i.e., the terms representing the interactions among the three types of scales. In the third step, we use available data to model the VMS–ROM closure terms. Thus, instead of phenomenological models used in VMS for standard numerical discretizations (e.g., eddy viscosity models), we utilize available data to construct new structural VMS–ROM closure models. Specifically, we build ROM operators (vectors, matrices, and tensors) that are closest to the true ROM closure terms evaluated with the available data. We test the new data-driven VMS–ROM in the numerical simulation of four test cases: (i) the 1D Burgers equation with viscosity coefficient v = 10 -3 ; (ii) a 2D flow past a circular cylinder at Reynolds numbers, Re = 100, Re = 500, and Re= 1000; (iii) the quasi-geostrophic equations at Reynolds number Re = 450 and Rossby number Ro = 0.0036; and (iv) a 2D flow over a backward facing step at Reynolds number Re = 1000. The numerical results show that the data-driven VMS–ROM is significantly more accurate than standard ROMs.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Implosion mediated gas-puff hybrid X-pinch

Imploding gas-puff z-pinches are efficient sources of intense X-rays. However, the unpredictable size, number, and location of hot-spots along the pinch axis make them unsuitable for applications such as point-projection radiography. Crossed wire or hybrid X-pinches on the other hand provide small, localized sources but require fast current rise times and must be reloaded after each pulse. In this letter, we present the first experimental demonstration of an implosion mediated gas-puff hybrid x-pinch in which an annular gas-puff implosion is shaped and focused onto pair of conical electrodes separated by a small gap. Here, this setup produces an intense X-ray source with controllable timing that can be operated with or without a central wire. Because the gas-puff implosion time determines the formation of the pinch, this configuration can continue to operate efficiently as a point X-ray source for longer current pulses than conventional x-pinches.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Distributional Equity in the Employment and Wage Impacts of Energy Transitions

We use restricted-access, geocoded data on the near-universe of workers in 23 US states to quantify the impact of wind energy development on local earnings and employment, by race, ethnicity, sex, and educational attainment. We find significant impacts that persist for several years beyond the project construction phase. Our estimates are larger than those from previous studies but still small relative to typical economic multipliers for fiscal spending or investment in other industries. We find the largest percentage increases for black workers and workers who either do not have a high school diploma or who have a college degree. We also find the economic gains for men to be much larger than those for women. Finally, we find estimates from data aggregated to the county level to be significantly lower than our worker-level estimates. We suggest a number of areas for further study building off the justice implications of our findings.

employment↗

Interactions between Surface Chemistry and Gas-Phase Combustion: New Optical Tools for Probing Flame-Wall Interactions and the Heterogeneous Chemistry of Soot Growth and Oxidation in Flame. Final report

Some of the most stubborn and technologically critical problems in combustion are dominated by heterogeneous processes. While purely gas-phase combustion systems have been the subject of intense theoretical and experimental study, combustion phenomena occurring at interfaces are far less understood. This is partly caused by the lack of experimental approaches capable of probing locations very close to an interface, especially in the hostile environment of combustion. For laser-based optical techniques, measurements taken near interfaces are often complicated by laser scattering from the surface interfering with relatively weak signals. Further, for measurements intended to probe molecular species adsorbed at the interface between a gas-phase combustion reaction and a condensed phase material, signals are generally overwhelmed by contributions from the bulk phases, causing the small contribution from the interfacial molecular species to be undetectable. Our goal in this project has been to develop new optical tools for imaging chemical species, temperature, and surface species at and near surfaces or interfaces of relevance to combustion. We have placed focus on the development and refinement of ultrafast techniques such as femtosecond coherent Raman imaging and femtosecond/picosecond sum-frequency generation (SFG) scattering, as well as the models used to simulate such spectra under differing conditions of pressure and chemical speciation. The two physical phenomena initially targeted for study in this project were flamewall interactions, and the growth of particulates in flames.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗