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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 289 records · Page 16
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Computational and Experimental Mechanistic Insights into the Ethanol-to-Butanol Upgrading Reaction over MgO

The mechanism of ethanol upgrading to higher products is still under debate, especially regarding intermediate species and hydrogenation and dehydrogenation steps. In this work, we conducted a combined theoretical and experimental approach to contribute to this discussion. For such, detailed electronic structure density functional theory calculations (aiming at probing density of states, infrared spectra, geometric parameters, charge densities, and reaction energetics) and diffuse reflectance infrared Fourier transform spectroscopy experiments were carried out revealing the relevance of an appropriate combination of reactive surface sites to support the formation of several intermediates that are formed in the C-C coupling over MgO. The roles of Mg and O sites were also studied under an electronic perspective and different geometrical arrangements. We found that a kink configuration was the most adequate for ethanol to 1-butanol upgrading. Our calculations also gave us arguments to propose distinct reaction routes, whose mutual predominance would depend upon reaction temperature. At temperatures up to 573 K, the so-called β-route, which goes through scission of a Cβ-H bond and formation of an oxametallacycle-like intermediate, would dominate the coupling, whereas at higher temperatures, up to 673 K, a more usual Guerbet mechanism, via an aldol coupling step and then consecutive hydrogenations, would be expected. Here, the theoretical conclusions were followed by a careful experimental strategy using sequential experimental planning techniques in order to estimate accurate parameters with the lowest possible experimental load. Information from these different sources were coupled to develop a mathematical model for the rate of the ethanol upgrading reaction, using a Langmuir-Hinshelwood-Hougen-Watson approach. The developed and statistically validated model adequately described the experimental data at 673 K and 1.1 bar total pressure for ethanol partial pressures in the range from 0 to 20 kPa.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Combined Technologies for In Situ Remediation of Tc-99 and U in Subsurface Sediments

In this study, combinations of chemical remedies were tested in bench-scale batch experiments to evaluate a two-step reduction-sequestration approach to effectively stabilize high concentrations of inorganic contaminant mixtures. Bench tests simulated contaminant and geochemical conditions of a perched aquifer located within the Central Plateau at the Hanford Site, located in southeastern Washington State (USA). Pairwise combinations of a reductant [e.g., zero valent iron, sulfur modified iron (SMI), or calcium polysulfide] and a sequestering agent [e.g., calcite, apatite, or dilute alkaline solution (e.g., NaOH)] were evaluated for immobilization and stabilization of technetium (Tc) (50,000 pCi/L), uranium (U) (150 mg/L), and nitrate (NO 3 ) (200 mg/L) in high ionic strength groundwater. The results of these batch studies demonstrated that reduction by SMI and sequestration in apatite or calcite are the most effective combination for these contaminant mixtures and conditions. Aqueous concentrations of Tc and U decreased by 95.6% ± 2.5% and 101.1% ± 5.2%, respectively, with SMI-apatite and 98.3% ± 0.0% and 101.2% ± 5.2%, respectively, with SMI-calcite. Sequential extractions showed that sequestered contaminants had limited capacity for re-oxidation; in fact, less than 10% of immobilized Tc and U was recovered by selective extraction of mineral phases most susceptible to oxidation. In addition, X-ray absorption near edge structure analysis of the sediment samples treated with SMI-calcite showed the presence of only U(IV), while both U(IV) and U(VI) were present in the SMI apatite combination [ratio of 0.43 U(IV):0.59 U(VI)].This study describes preliminary results that a two-step approach for stabilizing contaminant mixtures of long-lived radionuclides can be effective at reducing contaminant fluxes to groundwater from vadose and perched water zones.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

Cool flame chemistry of diesel surrogate compounds: n -Decane, 2-methylnonane, 2,7-dimethyloctane, and n -butylcyclohexane

Elucidating the formation of combustion intermediates is crucial to validate reaction pathways, develop reaction mechanisms and examine kinetic modeling predictions. While high-temperature pyrolysis and oxidation intermediates of alkanes have been thoroughly studied, comprehensive analysis of cool flame intermediates from alkane autoxidation is lacking and challenging due to the complexity of intermediate species produced. Here, jet-stirred reactor autoxidation of four C 10 alkanes: n -decane, 2-methylnonane, 2,7-dimethyloctane, and n -butylcyclohexane, as model compounds of diesel fuel, was investigated from 500 to 630 K using synchrotron vacuum ultraviolet photoionization molecular beam mass spectrometry (SVUV-PIMS). Around 100 intermediates were detected for each fuel. The classes of molecular structures present during the autoxidation of the representative paraffinic functional groups in transport fuels, i.e., n -alkanes, branched alkanes, and cycloalkanes were established and were found to be similar from the oxidation of various alkanes. A theoretical approach was applied to estimate the photoionization cross sections of the intermediates with the same carbon skeleton as the reactants, e.g., alkene, alkenyl keto, cyclic ether, dione, keto-hydroperoxide, diketo-hydroperoxide, and keto-dihydroperoxide. These species are indicators of the first, second, and third O 2 addition reactions for the four C 10 hydrocarbons, as well as bimolecular reactions involving keto-hydroperoxides. Chemical kinetic models for the oxidation of these four fuels were examined by comparison against mole fraction of the reactants and final products obtained in additional experiments using gas chromatography analysis, as well as the detailed species pool and mole fractions of aforementioned seven types of intermediates measured by SVUV-PIMS. This works reveals that the models in the literature need to be improved, not only the prediction of the fuel reactivity and final products, but also the reaction network to predict the formation of many previous undetected intermediates.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Windowed least-squares model reduction for dynamical systems

Here we propose a windowed least-squares (WLS) approach for model reduction of dynamical systems. The proposed approach sequentially minimizes the time-continuous full-order-model residual within a low-dimensional space–time trial subspace over time windows. The approach comprises a generalization of existing model reduction approaches, as particular instances of the methodology recover Galerkin, least-squares Petrov–Galerkin (LSPG), and space–time LSPG projection. In addition, the approach addresses key deficiencies in existing model reduction techniques, e.g., the dependence of LSPG and space–time LSPG projection on the time discretization and the exponential growth in time exhibited by a posteriori error bounds for both Galerkin and LSPG projection. We consider two types of space–time trial subspaces within the proposed approach: one that reduces only the spatial dimension of the full-order model, and one that reduces both the spatial and temporal dimensions of the full-order model. For each type of trial subspace, we consider two different solution techniques: direct (i.e., discretize then optimize) and indirect (i.e., optimize then discretize). Numerical experiments conducted using trial subspaces characterized by spatial dimension reduction demonstrate that the WLS approach can yield more accurate solutions with lower space–time residuals than Galerkin and LSPG projection.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Electron–electrophile coupled dinitrogen reduction in a cerium– meta -tetraphenolate system: a computational study

The use of lanthanide complexes for catalytic dinitrogen reduction is a new development in homogeneous catalysis. Density functional theory calculations on our recently reported cerium phenolate catalyst [K 2 Ce 2 (sol) 4 (mTP) 2 ] (mTP = {(OC 6 H 2 - 2- t Bu-4-Me) 2 CH} 2 - 1,3-C 6 H 4 ; sol = OMe 2 here; THF in the experiment) have been undertaken to elucidate the reduction, activation and silylation steps at the bound dinitrogen molecule, in the presence of the reductant, potassium metal (K 0 ) and the electrophile Me 3 SiCl (TMSCl). Out of the total of six electron reductions required to cleave the N 2 , the first two-electron reduction step was found to be highly disfavoured unless potassium cations (K + ) are included, upon which the step is rendered strongly exergonic; N–Si bond formation at the two-electron stage is predicted to be unfavourable. The three-electron-reduced N 2 -adduct is found to be at the reductive activation limit in the absence of added electrophiles, which can form N-element bonds and lower the overall charge. Added electron density beyond three-electron reduction no longer localises on N 2 , preventing formal N 2 4− formation. A pathway in which both K 0 and Me 3 SiCl work in concert was modelled, and six sequential reduction–silylation steps were calculated, showing how the N–N bond is cleaved after the third reduction, eventually releasing two equivalents of N(SiMe 3 ) 3 , and regenerating the starting complex with the highest barrier of any step being 22 kcal mol −1 . We establish alkali metal coordination and coupled electron–electrophile transfer as key factors in the design of rare-earth-mediated dinitrogen functionalisation.

Ahmad, Shahbaz [Univ. of Manchester (United Kingdo↗
DOE OSTI2020

Radiation damage and dose limits in serial synchrotron crystallography at cryo- and room temperatures

Radiation damage limits the accuracy of macromolecular structures in X-ray crystallography. Cryogenic (cryo-) cooling reduces the global radiation damage rate and, therefore, became the method of choice over the past decades. The recent advent of serial crystallography, which spreads the absorbed energy over many crystals, thereby reducing damage, has rendered room temperature (RT) data collection more practical and also extendable to microcrystals, both enabling and requiring the study of specific and global radiation damage at RT. Here, we performed sequential serial raster-scanning crystallography using a microfocused synchrotron beam that allowed for the collection of two series of 40 and 90 full datasets at 2- and 1.9-Å resolution at a dose rate of 40.3 MGy/s on hen egg white lysozyme (HEWL) crystals at RT and cryotemperature, respectively. The diffraction intensity halved its initial value at average doses ( D 1/2 ) of 0.57 and 15.3 MGy at RT and 100 K, respectively. Specific radiation damage at RT was observed at disulfide bonds but not at acidic residues, increasing and then apparently reversing, a peculiar behavior that can be modeled by accounting for differential diffraction intensity decay due to the nonuniform illumination by the X-ray beam. Specific damage to disulfide bonds is evident early on at RT and proceeds at a fivefold higher rate than global damage. The decay modeling suggests it is advisable not to exceed a dose of 0.38 MGy per dataset in static and time-resolved synchrotron crystallography experiments at RT. This rough yardstick might change for proteins other than HEWL and at resolutions other than 2 Å.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Finite-element-based simulations of electrodes for CO 2 cascade reduction reactions

The multielectron reduction of CO 2 to liquid fuels could be a path to scalable energy storage, but reaching this goal requires major advances in catalysis and systems engineering. Cascade catalysis, which couples sequential reactions without isolating intermediates, has emerged as a promising route to enhance selectivity and efficiency in CO 2 reduction (CO 2 R). In this review, we examine how finite-element-based simulations of continuum model [finite element method (FEM)] approaches are being used to analyze and guide CO 2 R cascade systems. We first outline the fundamentals of cascade catalysis and recent advances in catalytic materials (metallic, molecular, and hybrid architectures). We then focus on FEM developments at the electrode and device scales, emphasizing how these models capture transport phenomena, local microenvironments, and geometry-dependent effects. To clarify design principles, we present case studies of cascade electrodes organized in systems without and with integrated semiconductors. We further emphasize the integration of FEM with multiscale frameworks (density functional theory, molecular dynamics, kinetic Monte Carlo) and its role in bridging atomic-level insights with device-level performance. Finally, we identify current limitations and future prospects, including improved boundary conditions, coupling with operando experiments, and machine learning-accelerated model development. Together, these insights provide design principles for next-generation CO 2 R cascade systems for efficient solar fuel production.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sequential Bond Dissociation Energies of Th + (CO) x , x = 3–6: Guided Ion Beam Collision-Induced Dissociation and Quantum Computational Studies

Collision-induced dissociation (CID) of [Th,xC,xO] + , x = 3–6, with Xe is performed using a guided ion beam tandem mass spectrometer (GIBMS). Products are formed exclusively by the loss of CO ligands. Analyses of the kinetic energy-dependent CID product cross sections yield bond dissociation energies (BDEs) of (CO) x–1 Th + –CO at 0 K as 1.09 ± 0.05, 0.82 ± 0.07, 0.63 ± 0.05, and 0.70 ± 0.05 eV, respectively. Different structures of [Th,xC,xO] + were explored using various electronic structure methods, and BDEs for CO ligand loss from precursor [Th,xC,xO] + complexes were computed. Both experimental and theoretical results corroborate that the structures of [Th,xC,xO] + , x = 3–6, formed experimentally are homoleptic thorium cation carbonyl complexes, Th + (CO) x . The nonmonotonic trend in experimental BDEs is reproduced theoretically, although ambiguities in the spin states of the x = 4–6 complexes (doublet or quartet) remain. BDEs calculated at the coupled cluster with single, double, and perturbative triple excitations (CCSD(T))/cc-pVXZ//B3LYP/cc-PVXZ (X = T and Q) level and a complete basis set (CBS) extrapolation agree reasonably well with the experimental values for all complexes. Thorium oxide ketenylidene carbonyl cations, OTh + CCO(CO) y , y = 1–4, were calculated to be the most stable structures of [Th,xC,xO] + , x = 3–6, respectively; however, these are not observed in our experiment. Potential energy profiles (PEPs) having either quartet or doublet spin calculated at the B3LYP/cc-pVQZ level suggest that the failure to observe OTh + CCO(CO) y , y = 1–4, is the result of a barrier corresponding to the C–C bond formation, making the formation of OTh + CCO(CO) y inaccessible kinetically under the present experimental conditions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Dynamics of plasma atomic layer etching: Molecular dynamics simulations and optical emission spectroscopy

Atomic layer etching is intrinsically dynamic as it involves sequential and repeated exposures of a surface to be etched with different species at different energies. The composition and structure of the near surface region change in both time and depth. Full understanding of this process requires resolving both temporal and spatial variations. In this work, we consider silicon (Si) atomic layer etching (ALE) by alternating exposure to chlorine gas (Cl 2 ) and argon ions (Ar + ). Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations are compared to experimental measurements with the aim of better understanding the dynamics of ALE and to test the simulation procedure. The simulations help to more fully interpret the experimental measurements. Further, optical emission measured just above the surface being etched can be related to etch products and can, therefore, be directly compared to simulation predictions. The simulations capture the measured initial product distribution leaving the surface and match the measured etch per cycle reasonably well. While simulations demonstrate the importance of ion-induced surface damage and mixing into a layer below the surface, the depth of which depends mainly on ion energy, the experiments suggest there is more Cl mixed into the layer than the MD procedure predicts.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Targeted materials discovery using Bayesian algorithm execution

Rapid discovery and synthesis of future materials requires intelligent data acquisition strategies to navigate large design spaces. A popular strategy is Bayesian optimization, which aims to find candidates that maximize material properties; however, materials design often requires finding specific subsets of the design space which meet more complex or specialized goals. We present a framework that captures experimental goals through straightforward user-defined filtering algorithms. These algorithms are automatically translated into one of three intelligent, parameter-free, sequential data collection strategies (SwitchBAX, InfoBAX, and MeanBAX), bypassing the time-consuming and difficult process of task-specific acquisition function design. Our framework is tailored for typical discrete search spaces involving multiple measured physical properties and short time-horizon decision making. We demonstrate this approach on datasets for TiO 2 nanoparticle synthesis and magnetic materials characterization, and show that our methods are significantly more efficient than state-of-the-art approaches. Overall, our framework provides a practical solution for navigating the complexities of materials design, and helps lay groundwork for the accelerated development of advanced materials.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Impact of organic acids and sulfate on the biogeochemical properties of soil from urban subsurface environments

Urban subsurface environments are often different from undisturbed subsurface environments due to the impacts of human activities. For example, deterioration of underground infrastructure can introduce elevated levels of Ca, Fe, and heavy metals into subsurface soils and groundwater. Likewise, leakage from sewer systems can lead to contamination by organic C, N, S, and P. However, the impact of these organic and inorganic compounds on biogeochemical processes including microbial redox reactions, mineral transformations, and microbial community transitions in urban subsurface environments is poorly understood. Here we conducted a microcosm experiment with soil samples from an urban construction site to investigate the possible biotic and abiotic processes impacted when sulfate and acetate or lactate were introduced into an urban subsurface environment. In the top-layer soil (0-0.3 m) microcosms, which were highly alkaline (pH > 10), the major impact was on abiotic processes such as secondary mineral precipitation. In the mid-layer (2-3 m) soil microcosms, the rate of Fe(III)-reduction and the amount of Fe(II) produced were greatly impacted by the specific organic acid added, and sulfate-reduction was not observed until after Fe(III)-reduction was complete. Near the end of the incubation, some genera related to syntrophic acetate oxidation and methanogenesis were observed in the lactateamended microcosms. In the bottom-layer (7-8 m) soil microcosms, the rate of Fe(III)-reduction and the amount of Fe(II) produced were affected by the concentration of amended sulfate. Sulfate-reduction was concurrent with Fe(III)-reduction, suggesting that Fe(II) production was likely due to abiotic reduction of Fe(III) by sulfide produced by microbial sulfate reduction. The slightly acidic initial pH (~5.8) of the mid-soil system was a major factor controlling sequential microbial Fe(III) and sulfate reduction versus parallel Fe(III) and sulfate reduction in the bottom soil system, which had a neutral initial pH (~7.2). Finally, 16S rRNA gene-based community analysis revealed a variety of indigenous microbial groups including alkaliphiles, dissimilatory iron and sulfate reducers, syntrophes, and methanogens tightly coupled with, and impacted by, these complex abiotic and biogeochemical processes occurring in urban subsurface environments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

A comparison of eight optimization methods applied to a wind farm layout optimization problem

Abstract. Selecting a wind farm layout optimization method is difficult. Comparisons between optimization methods in different papers can be uncertain due to the difficulty of exactly reproducing the objective function. Comparisons by just a few authors in one paper can be uncertain if the authors do not have experience using each algorithm. In this work we provide an algorithm comparison for a wind farm layout optimization case study between eight optimization methods applied, or directed, by researchers who developed those algorithms or who had other experience using them. We provided the objective function to each researcher to avoid ambiguity about relative performance due to a difference in objective function. While these comparisons are not perfect, we try to treat each algorithm more fairly by having researchers with experience using each algorithm apply each algorithm and by having a common objective function provided for analysis. The case study is from the International Energy Association (IEA) Wind Task 37, based on the Borssele III and IV wind farms with 81 turbines. Of particular interest in this case study is the presence of disconnected boundary regions and concave boundary features. The optimization methods studied represent a wide range of approaches, including gradient-free, gradient-based, and hybrid methods; discrete and continuous problem formulations; single-run and multi-start approaches; and mathematical and heuristic algorithms. We provide descriptions and references (where applicable) for each optimization method, as well as lists of pros and cons, to help readers determine an appropriate method for their use case. All the optimization methods perform similarly, with optimized wake loss values between 15.48 % and 15.70 % as compared to 17.28 % for the unoptimized provided layout. Each of the layouts found were different, but all layouts exhibited similar characteristics. Strong similarities across all the layouts include tightly packing wind turbines along the outer borders, loosely spacing turbines in the internal regions, and allocating similar numbers of turbines to each discrete boundary region. The best layout by annual energy production (AEP) was found using a new sequential allocation method, discrete exploration-based optimization (DEBO). Based on the results in this study, it appears that using an optimization algorithm can significantly improve wind farm performance, but there are many optimization methods that can perform well on the wind farm layout optimization problem, given that they are applied correctly.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dial

A key step in almost all scientific endeavors is answering the question: Given this data I already collected, what new data do I expect will yield the most useful information toward my scientific objective? The area of (sequential) experimental design has long been investigating answers to this question, but in recent years techniques from the machine learning subfield of active learning are increasingly applied. Researchers need a simple software tool for active learning applied to experimental design that can easily integrate into their existing workflows. This computer code, Dial, provides a microservice in ORNL's INTERSECT ecosystem for active learning applied to experimental design. By being part of the INTERSECT ecosystem, Dial is simple to integrate into any INTERSECT-based workflow. Dial provides multiple backend options, where a backend is an implementation of a specific active learning method. Users can select the backend that performs best for their application. Developers can also add new backends as needed. At its core, Dial receives a set of pre-existing measurements and input parameter bounds and then recommends one or more new sets of parameters to measure. Dial also includes interfaces to other microservices in the INTERSECT ecosystem so that it can be incorporated into INTERSECT campaigns. Dial provides a simple, yet powerful interface to convert automated INTERSECT workflows into autonomous workflows that adapt based on the results that are obtained. A shared microservice for active learning prevents duplicated effort by each application team implementing its own adaptive design of experiments tool.

Drane, Lance [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Efficient Active Learning for Gaussian Process Classification by Error Reduction

Active learning sequentially selects the best instance for labeling by optimizing an acquisition function to enhance data/label efficiency. The selection can be either from a discrete instance set (pool-based scenario) or a continuous instance space (query synthesis scenario). In this work, we study both active learning scenarios for Gaussian Process Classification (GPC). The existing active learning strategies that maximize the Estimated Error Reduction (EER) aim at reducing the classification error after training with the new acquired instance in a onestep-look-ahead manner. The computation of EER-based acquisition functions is typically prohibitive as it requires retraining the GPC with every new query. Moreover, as the EER is not smooth, it can not be combined with gradient-based optimization techniques to efficiently explore the continuous instance space for query synthesis. To overcome these critical limitations, we develop computationally efficient algorithms for EER-based active learning with GPC. Further, we derive the joint predictive distribution of label pairs as a one-dimensional integral, as a result of which the computation of the acquisition function avoids retraining the GPC for each query, remarkably reducing the computational overhead. We also derive the gradient chain rule to efficiently calculate the gradient of the acquisition function, which leads to the first query synthesis active learning algorithm implementing EER-based strategies. Our experiments clearly demonstrate the computational efficiency of the proposed algorithms. We also benchmark our algorithms on both synthetic and real-world datasets, which show superior performance in terms of sampling efficiency compared to the existing state-of-the-art algorithms.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Implementing a unified solver for nonlinearly constrained optimization

SQP and interior-point methods (also referred to as Lagrange-Newton methods) typically share key algorithmic components, such as strategies for computing descent directions and mechanisms that promote global convergence. Building on this insight, we introduce a unifying framework with eight building blocks that abstracts the workflows of Lagrange-Newton methods. We then present Uno, a modular C++ solver that implements our unifying framework and allows the automatic combination of a wide range of strategies with no programming effort from the user. Uno is meant to (1) organize mathematical optimization strategies into a coherent hierarchy; (2) offer a wide range of efficient and robust methods that can be compared for a given instance; (3) enable researchers to experiment with novel optimization strategies; and (4) reduce the cost of development and maintenance of multiple optimization solvers. Uno’s software design allows user to compose new customized solvers for emerging optimization areas such as robust optimization or optimization problems with complementarity constraints, while building on reliable nonlinear optimization techniques. We demonstrate that Uno is highly competitive against state-of-the-art solvers filterSQP, IPOPT, SNOPT, MINOS, LANCELOT, LOQO, and CONOPT on a subset of 429 small problems from the CUTE collection. Uno is available as open-source software under the MIT license at https://github.com/cvanaret/Uno and via its C, Julia, Python, Fortran, and AMPL interfaces.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bayesian projection pursuit regression

In projection pursuit regression (PPR), a univariate response variable is approximated by the sum of $M$ “ridge functions,” which are flexible functions of one-dimensional projections of a multivariate input variable. Traditionally, optimization routines are used to choose the projection directions and ridge functions via a sequential algorithm, and $M$ is typically chosen via cross-validation. Here, we introduce a novel Bayesian version of PPR, which has the benefit of accurate uncertainty quantification. To infer appropriate projection directions and ridge functions, we apply novel adaptations of methods used for the single ridge function case ($M$=1), called the Bayesian Single Index Model; and use a Reversible Jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to infer the number of ridge functions $M$. We evaluate the predictive ability of our model in 20 simulated scenarios and for 23 real datasets, in a bake-off against an array of state-of-the-art regression methods. Finally, we generalize this methodology and demonstrate the ability to accurately model multivariate response variables. Its effective performance indicates that Bayesian Projection Pursuit Regression is a valuable addition to the existing regression toolbox.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Thermal Reservoir Networks for Modularly Expandable Thermal Microgrids

The Department of Defense (DoD) faces the substantial challenge of cost-effectively retrofitting one to two installations per month, each comprising approximately 1,000 buildings, to improve resilience, reduce energy consumption, and enhance energy supply security. Achieving these objectives requires optimal system selection and effective risk mitigation during system integration. To address this need, we introduce Platform-Based Design (PBD), a structured, hierarchical methodology adapted from other industrial sectors to the domain of energy system retrofits. We demonstrate the effectiveness of PBD through a techno-economic feasibility study comparing geothermal-coupled thermal energy networks (TENs) with conventional energy systems for heating, cooling, and powering 17 buildings at Joint Base Andrews (JBA) in Maryland. Our analysis illustrates that the PBD approach enables rigorous, data-driven, sequential decision making, resulting in a family of Pareto-optimal systems, among which the TEN emerged as the most promising solution. The selected TEN design integrates geothermal borefields, heat recovery heat pumps, photovoltaic (PV) arrays, and battery storage. Compared to the baseline system – gas heating combined with air-source chillers – the proposed TEN reduces annual imported energy by 74% and peak electricity demand by 45%, achieves a levelized cost of energy of $\$0.210$/kWh, and substantially enhances resilience. Life-cycle costs increase by approximately 6%, and initial investment costs are about 2.5 times higher than the baseline. However, if central plant infrastructure, district loops, and utility-scale PV and battery systems are privately funded and operated, the initial investment would fall below the baseline system cost. Critical to achieving these significant performance improvements were detailed nonlinear dynamic simulations coupling geothermal heat transfer, energy system operation, and realistic feedback control logic. These simulations identified essential design modifications and control strategy refinements that substantially reduced energy use, peak demand, and compressor shortcycling, thereby improving durability and reliability—issues that would have been significantly more expensive to resolve during operation. Additionally, the verification step highlighted sensitivities to key design parameters that could reduce initial investment by approximately $\$2$ million and reduce annual life-cycle costs more than $\$300,000$. We recommend adopting the PBD methodology for future feasibility studies and TEN pilot projects to gain valuable operational experience. Furthermore, we recommend that DoD invest in transferring and scaling the PBD methodology to other installations. This entails developing standardized computational frameworks and component libraries as well as training industry in conducting PBD. Such investments would enable rapid, robust, reliable, and cost-effective retrofits, supporting DoD’s ambitious energy system modernization goals.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

An Online Approach to Solve the Dynamic Vehicle Routing Problem with Stochastic Trip Requests for Paratransit Services

Many transit agencies operating paratransit and microtransit services have to respond to trip requests that arrive in real-time, which entails solving hard combinatorial and sequential decision-making problems under uncertainty. To avoid decisions that lead to significant inefficiency in the long term, vehicles should be allocated to requests by optimizing a non-myopic utility function or by batching requests together and optimizing a myopic utility function. While the former approach is typically offline, the latter can be performed online. We point out two major issues with such approaches when applied to paratransit services in practice. First, it is difficult to batch paratransit requests together as they are temporally sparse. Second, the environment in which transit agencies operate changes dynamically (e.g., traffic conditions can change over time), causing the estimates that are learned offline to become stale. To address these challenges, we propose a fully online approach to solve the dynamic vehicle routing problem (DVRP) with time windows and stochastic trip requests that is robust to changing environmental dynamics by construction. We focus on scenarios where requests are relatively sparse—our problem is motivated by applications to paratransit services. We formulate DVRP as a Markov decision process and use Monte Carlo tree search to evaluate actions for any given state. Accounting for stochastic requests while optimizing a non-myopic utility function is computationally challenging; indeed, the action space for such a problem is intractably large in practice. To tackle the large action space, we leverage the structure of the problem to design heuristics that can sample promising actions for the tree search. Our experiments using real-world data from our partner agency show that the proposed approach outperforms existing state-of-the-art approaches both in terms of performance and robustness.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗