Results for “scenario selection” — Page 16

NASA NTRS2016

Decision Manifold Approximation for Physics-Based Simulations

With the recent surge of success in big-data driven deep learning problems, many of these frameworks focus on the notion of architecture design and utilizing massive databases. However, in some scenarios massive sets of data may be difficult, and in some cases infeasible, to acquire. In this paper we discuss a trajectory-based framework that quickly learns the underlying decision manifold of binary simulation classifications while judiciously selecting exploratory target states to minimize the number of required simulations. Furthermore, we draw particular attention to the simulation prediction application idealized to the case where failures in simulations can be predicted and avoided, providing machine intelligence to novice analysts. We demonstrate this framework in various forms of simulations and discuss its efficacy.

Wong, Jay Ming↗

NASA NTRS2021

System Analysis and Generative Design for Icenode, a Buoyant Vehicle for Measuring Melt Rate Under Ice Shelves

Antarctic ice shelves buttress the Antarctic Ice Sheet from sliding into the ocean, and their collapse could trigger a meter or more of global sea level rise by the end of the century. Current state-of-the-art predictions for ice shelf behavior in a warming climate have large uncertainty, significantly hindered by a lack of in situ melt rate observations under ice shelves, especially near grounding zones. IceNode is a novel robotic vehicle under development at the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory to acquire such measurements, but presents a complex design problem owing to the large design space and conflicting performance requirements. Evaluating a preliminary design requires several types of tedious analysis which prevents rapid iteration and exploration of the design space. We present the implementation of a custom system analysis framework which was used to automate analysis such as resource budgeting, mission simulation, mass and buoyancy balancing, and static landing stability analysis of a given design configuration. Using this framework, we selected parameters which had the largest effects on design success and conducted a generative design study in which we programmatically varied a handful of parameters to generate 1540 different design candidates and test them across 160 different environmental scenarios. The custom built system analysis tool enabled rapid development of critical analysis and automated exploration of a large design space to guide preliminary design of the IceNode vehicle.

Gebara, Christine↗

NASA NTRS1995

Nonlinear Landau damping and Alfven wave dissipation

Nonlinear Landau damping has been often suggested to be the cause of the dissipation of Alfven waves in the solar wind as well as the mechanism for ion heating and selective preacceleration in solar flares. We discuss the viability of these processes in light of our theoretical and numerical results. We present one-dimensional hybrid plasma simulations of the nonlinear Landau damping of parallel Alfven waves. In this scenario, two Alfven waves nonresonantly combine to create second-order magnetic field pressure gradients, which then drive density fluctuations, which in turn drive a second-order longitudinal electric field. Under certain conditions, this electric field strongly interacts with the ambient ions via the Landau resonance which leads to a rapid dissipation of the Alfven wave energy. While there is a net flux of energy from the waves to the ions, one of the Alfven waves will grow if both have the same polarization. We compare damping and growth rates from plasma simulations with those predicted by Lee and Volk (1973), and also discuss the evolution of the ambient ion distribution. We then consider this nonlinear interaction in the presence of a spectrum of Alfven waves, and discuss the spectrum's influence on the growth or damping of a single wave. We also discuss the implications for wave dissipation and ion heating in the solar wind.

Vinas, Adolfo F.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Enabling Limited Resource-Bounded Disjunction in Scheduling

We describe three approaches to enabling a severely computationallylimited embedded scheduler to consider a smallnumber of alternative activities based on resource availability.We consider the case where the scheduler is so computationallylimited that it cannot backtrack search. The first twoapproaches precompile resource checks (called guards) thatonly enable selection of a preferred alternative activity if sufficientresources are estimated to be available to schedule theremaining activities. The third approach mimics backtrackingby invoking the scheduler multiple times with the alternativeactivities. We present an evaluation of these techniques onMars mission scenarios (called sol types) from NASA’s nextplanetary rover where these techniques are being evaluatedfor inclusion in an onboard scheduler.

Vaquero, Tiago↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Scenario-Based Approach to Assess Continuity Gaps in Earth Observations

Decision analysis processes outlined in systems engineering references, such as the Systems Engineering Body of Knowledge [1] or the NASA Systems Engineering Handbook [2], recommend following a series of steps to support decision-making for engineering applications. These steps are consistent across the literature and typically involve defining objectives, defining relevant criteria against which candidate alternatives can be assessed, selecting an evaluation method, assessing alternatives, and making a recommendation based on this assessment. These approaches are well-suited to assess systems for which sets of common objectives and constraints can be identified. A vast body of literature describes their application to numerous engineering problems, and many methods have been developed since the middle of the 20th century to support the assessment of candidate alternatives for such systems [3, 4, 5, 6]. These approaches, however, show some limitations when decisions pertain to systems of systems. These collections of individual systems typically do not share a common set of objectives and constraints, tend to be highly complex, and the definition of assessable, high-value candidate alternatives poses a challenge due to interdependencies. The formulation, development, operation, and funding of Earth observing missions are such that gaps may occur between missions, therefore impacting the continuity of measurements. These Earth observing mission architectures constitute systems of systems for which a common set of objectives and constraints can be challenging to define. When tasked with assessing gaps that may occur for a series of spaceborne missions that address similar science parameters, the authors therefore proposed to depart from the traditional objective- and criteria-based approach and instead adopted a scenario-based approach. This approach does not require a prioritized set of common objectives; rather, it assesses the impact of possible decisions on the system-of-systems and characterizes its possible future states. It also offers the flexibility to adjust assumptions, update inputs, and refine supporting models over time, while enabling the rapid, early identification of challenges and key decision points. By simulating the impact of potential decisions on the entirety of the system-of-systems, the approach enables the synchronization of multiple decisions that typically occur at the level of the individual system. This paper provides an overview of the approach that was developed to assess continuity gaps for a series of operational and planned spaceborne Earth observing missions, a description of its application to the problem at hand, and a discussion of currently known limitations.

scenario earth observations continuity gaps↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Scenario-Based Approach to Assess Continuity Gaps in Earth Observations

Decision analysis processes outlined in systems engineering references, such as the Systems Engineering Body of Knowledge [1] or the NASA Systems Engineering Handbook [2], recommend following a series of steps to support decision-making for engineering applications. These steps are consistent across the literature and typically involve defining objectives, defining relevant criteria against which candidate alternatives can be assessed, selecting an evaluation method, assessing alternatives, and making a recommendation based on this assessment. These approaches are well-suited to assess systems for which sets of common objectives and constraints can be identified. A vast body of literature describes their application to numerous engineering problems, and many methods have been developed since the middle of the 20th century to support the assessment of candidate alternatives for such systems [3, 4, 5, 6]. These approaches, however, show some limitations when decisions pertain to systems of systems. These collections of individual systems typically do not share a common set of objectives and constraints, tend to be highly complex, and the definition of assessable, high-value candidate alternatives poses a challenge due to interdependencies. The formulation, development, operation, and funding of Earth observing missions are such that gaps may occur between missions, therefore impacting the continuity of measurements. These Earth observing mission architectures constitute systems of systems for which a common set of objectives and constraints can be challenging to define. When tasked with assessing gaps that may occur for a series of spaceborne missions that address similar science parameters, the authors therefore proposed to depart from the traditional objective- and criteria-based approach and instead adopted a scenario-based approach. This approach does not require a prioritized set of common objectives; rather, it assesses the impact of possible decisions on the system-of-systems and characterizes its possible future states. It also offers the flexibility to adjust assumptions, update inputs, and refine supporting models over time, while enabling the rapid, early identification of challenges and key decision points. By simulating the impact of potential decisions on the entirety of the system-of-systems, the approach enables the synchronization of multiple decisions that typically occur at the level of the individual system. This paper provides an overview of the approach that was developed to assess continuity gaps for a series of operational and planned spaceborne Earth observing missions, a description of its application to the problem at hand, and a discussion of currently known limitations.

scenario earth observations continuity gaps↗

NASA NTRS1993

Windshear Database for Forward-Looking Systems Certification

This document contains a description of a comprehensive database that is to be used for certification testing of airborne forward-look windshear detection systems. The database was developed by NASA Langley Research Center, at the request of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), to support the industry initiative to certify and produce forward-look windshear detection equipment. The database contains high resolution, three dimensional fields for meteorological variables that may be sensed by forward-looking systems. The database is made up of seven case studies which have been generated by the Terminal Area Simulation System, a state-of-the-art numerical system for the realistic modeling of windshear phenomena. The selected cases represent a wide spectrum of windshear events. General descriptions and figures from each of the case studies are included, as well as equations for F-factor, radar-reflectivity factor, and rainfall rate. The document also describes scenarios and paths through the data sets, jointly developed by NASA and the FAA, to meet FAA certification testing objectives. Instructions for reading and verifying the data from tape are included.

Switzer, G. F.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Air cushion landing gear applications study

A series of air cushion landing gear (ACLG) applications was studied and potential benefits analyzed in order to identify the most attractive of these. The selected applications are new integrated designs (not retrofits) and employ a modified design approach with improved characteristics and performance. To aid the study, a survey of potential users was made. Applications were evaluated in the light of comments received. A technology scenario is developed, with discussion of problem areas, current technology level and future needs. Feasible development timetables are suggested. It is concluded that near-term development of small-size ACLG trunks, exploration of flight effects and braking are key items. The most attractive applications are amphibious with very large cargo aircraft and small general aviation having the greatest potential.

Earl, T. D.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Probabilistic Survivability Versus Time Modeling

This technical paper documents Kennedy Space Centers Independent Assessment team work completed on three assessments for the Ground Systems Development and Operations (GSDO) Program to assist the Chief Safety and Mission Assurance Officer (CSO) and GSDO management during key programmatic reviews. The assessments provided the GSDO Program with an analysis of how egress time affects the likelihood of astronaut and worker survival during an emergency. For each assessment, the team developed probability distributions for hazard scenarios to address statistical uncertainty, resulting in survivability plots over time. The first assessment developed a mathematical model of probabilistic survivability versus time to reach a safe location using an ideal Emergency Egress System at Launch Complex 39B (LC-39B); the second used the first model to evaluate and compare various egress systems under consideration at LC-39B. The third used a modified LC-39B model to determine if a specific hazard decreased survivability more rapidly than other events during flight hardware processing in Kennedys Vehicle Assembly Building (VAB).Based on the composite survivability versus time graphs from the first two assessments, there was a soft knee in the Figure of Merit graphs at eight minutes (ten minutes after egress ordered). Thus, the graphs illustrated to the decision makers that the final emergency egress design selected should have the capability of transporting the flight crew from the top of LC 39B to a safe location in eight minutes or less. Results for the third assessment were dominated by hazards that were classified as instantaneous in nature (e.g. stacking mishaps) and therefore had no effect on survivability vs time to egress the VAB. VAB emergency scenarios that degraded over time (e.g. fire) produced survivability vs time graphs that were line with aerospace industry norms.

Joyner, James J., Sr.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Towards Co-evolution of Membranes and Metabolism

Conceptually, the most robust way to explain how primitive cell-like structures acquired and increased their capabilities is on the basis of Darwinian evolution. A population of protocells containing material that produced more environmentally fit progeny would increase in time at the expense of other protocells. In this scenario, protocellular boundaries were inextricably connected to the metabolism they encapsulated: to be inheritable, early metabolism must have led to an increased rate of growth and division of vesicles and, similarly, transport through vesicle boundaries must have supported the evolution of metabolism. Everything that could not be delivered from the environment had to be produced and retained inside protocells. Despite their importance to the understanding of the origin of life, only a few cases of coupling between metabolism and membrane-related processes have been identified so far. For example, reactions inside fatty-acid vesicles have been linked to their competitive growth and division, and mechanisms by which membrane permeability might have coupled to information polymers have been proposed and explained. Most recently, it has been shown that a dipeptide inside fatty-acid vesicles catalyzes the formation of another dipeptide that binds to vesicle walls and, by doing so, promotes their growth at the expense of other vesicles, thus demonstrating evolutionary advantage of small, membrane-bound peptides. It has been shown that the appearance of phospholipids imparted selective advantage to protocells bound by phospholipid-containing membranes, eventually driving fatty-acid vesicles to extinction. Phospholipid membranes, however, are nearly impermeable to charged species. Yet, the ability to transport ions across membranes was vital for regulating cellular volume, pH homeostasis, generating energy and sensing the environment. To account for this, evolutionary scenarios for the emergence of simple ion channels, protein structures surrounding water-filled pores in the membrane that facilitate ion transport, have been developed. We will review recent progress in experimental and theoretical studies on coupling properties of membranes to metabolism, with the focus on how they impose constraints on scenarios for the origin of life, and discuss how these studies form the basis for future work on this topic.

metabolism↗

NASA NTRS1989

Space Propulsion Hazards Analysis Manual (SPHAM), volume 1

The Space Propulsion Hazards Analysis Manual (SPHAM) is a compilation of methods and data directed at hazards analysis and safety for space propulsion and associated vehicles, but broadly applicable to other environments and systems. Methods are described of compiling relevant regulatory documentation, deriving design requirements and specifications, modeling accident scenarios in formal risk assessments, and correlation real-time data to risk probability modeling. Also, SPHAM provides methods for predicting post-accident blast, fragmentation, thermal, and environmental damage. Included in the appendices are an exhaustive bibliography, hazardous properties information on selected space propulsion commodities, and system descriptions of various launch vehicles, upper stages, and spacecrafts.

Becker, Dorothy L.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Genesis of Augite-Bearing Ureilites: Evidence From LA-ICP-MS Analyses of Pyroxenes and Olivine

Ureilites are ultramafic achondrites composed primarily of coarse-grained low-Ca pyroxene and olivine with interstitial carbonaceous material, but a number of them contain augite [1]. Ureilites are considered to be restites after partial melting of a chondritic precursor, although at least some augite-bearing ureilites may be partially cumulate [1, 2]. In this scenario, the augite is a cumulus phase derived from a melt that infiltrated a restite composed of typical ureilite material (olivine+low-Ca pyroxene) [2]. To test this hypothesis, we examined the major and trace element compositions of silicate minerals in select augite-bearing ureilites with differing mg#. Polished thick sections of the augite-bearing ureilites ALH 84136 , EET 87511, EET 96293, LEW 88201, and META78008 and augite-free typical ureilite EET 90019 were examined by EPMA for major and minor elements and laser ablation ICP-MS (LA-ICP-MS) for trace elements, REE in particular. Although EET 87511 is reported to contain augite, the polished section that we obtained did not.

Herrin, J. S.↗

NASA NTRS2000

AWE: Aviation Weather Data Visualization Environment

Weather is one of the major causes of aviation accidents. General aviation (GA) flights account for 92% of all the aviation accidents, In spite of all the official and unofficial sources of weather visualization tools available to pilots, there is an urgent need for visualizing several weather related data tailored for general aviation pilots. Our system, Aviation Weather Data Visualization Environment AWE), presents graphical displays of meteorological observations, terminal area forecasts, and winds aloft forecasts onto a cartographic grid specific to the pilot's area of interest. Decisions regarding the graphical display and design are made based on careful consideration of user needs. Integral visual display of these elements of weather reports is designed for the use of GA pilots as a weather briefing and route selection tool. AWE provides linking of the weather information to the flight's path and schedule. The pilot can interact with the system to obtain aviation-specific weather for the entire area or for his specific route to explore what-if scenarios and make "go/no-go" decisions. The system, as evaluated by some pilots at NASA Ames Research Center, was found to be useful.

Spirkovska, Lilly↗

NASA NTRS2014

GeoLab: A Geological Workstation for Future Missions

The GeoLab glovebox was, until November 2012, fully integrated into NASA's Deep Space Habitat (DSH) Analog Testbed. The conceptual design for GeoLab came from several sources, including current research instruments (Microgravity Science Glovebox) used on the International Space Station, existing Astromaterials Curation Laboratory hardware and clean room procedures, and mission scenarios developed for earlier programs. GeoLab allowed NASA scientists to test science operations related to contained sample examination during simulated exploration missions. The team demonstrated science operations that enhance theThe GeoLab glovebox was, until November 2012, fully integrated into NASA's Deep Space Habitat (DSH) Analog Testbed. The conceptual design for GeoLab came from several sources, including current research instruments (Microgravity Science Glovebox) used on the International Space Station, existing Astromaterials Curation Laboratory hardware and clean room procedures, and mission scenarios developed for earlier programs. GeoLab allowed NASA scientists to test science operations related to contained sample examination during simulated exploration missions. The team demonstrated science operations that enhance the early scientific returns from future missions and ensure that the best samples are selected for Earth return. The facility was also designed to foster the development of instrument technology. Since 2009, when GeoLab design and construction began, the GeoLab team [a group of scientists from the Astromaterials Acquisition and Curation Office within the Astromaterials Research and Exploration Science (ARES) Directorate at JSC] has progressively developed and reconfigured the GeoLab hardware and software interfaces and developed test objectives, which were to 1) determine requirements and strategies for sample handling and prioritization for geological operations on other planetary surfaces, 2) assess the scientific contribution of selective in-situ sample characterization for mission planning, operations, and sample prioritization, 3) evaluate analytical instruments and tools for providing efficient and meaningful data in advance of sample return and 4) identify science operations that leverage human presence with robotic tools. In the first year of tests (2010), GeoLab examined basic glovebox operations performed by one and two crewmembers and science operations performed by a remote science team. The 2010 tests also examined the efficacy of basic sample characterization [descriptions, microscopic imagery, X-ray fluorescence (XRF) analyses] and feedback to the science team. In year 2 (2011), the GeoLab team tested enhanced software and interfaces for the crew and science team (including Web-based and mobile device displays) and demonstrated laboratory configurability with a new diagnostic instrument (the Multispectral Microscopic Imager from the JPL and Arizona State University). In year 3 (2012), the GeoLab team installed and tested a robotic sample manipulator and evaluated robotic-human interfaces for science operations.

Evans, Cynthia↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Bayesian Symbolic Regression: Addressing Challenges in Estimating Fractional Bayes Factors and Application to Fatigue Crack Growth Modeling

This research pioneers advancements in computational mechanics by integrating Bayesian-based uncertainty quantification into symbolic regression, specifically focusing on the critical task of accurately estimating the fractional Bayes factor for selecting arbitrary equations. In our exploration, we rigorously study two prominent methods—sequential Monte Carlo and the Laplace approximation—employed for computing the fractional Bayes factor. Our findings underscore the limitations of the Laplace approximation, revealing its diminished accuracy in nonlinear and multimodal scenarios. Specifically, the Laplace approximation is shown to underpredict fractional Bayes factor on a wide set of equations associated with a symbolic regression benchmark. This comparative analysis sheds light on the nuanced performance of these techniques, guiding researchers toward more informed choices in uncertainty quantification within symbolic regression. Furthermore, we showcase the practical utility of these enhanced symbolic regression tools through their application to a real-world problem in fatigue crack growth modeling, emphasizing their efficacy in capturing the complexities of mechanical systems.

Geoffrey Bomarito↗

NASA NTRS2012

Secondary Instability of Second Modes in Hypersonic Boundary Layers

Second mode disturbances dominate the primary instability stage of transition in a number of hypersonic flow configurations. The highest amplification rates of second mode disturbances are usually associated with 2D (or axisymmetric) perturbations and, therefore, a likely scenario for the onset of the three-dimensionality required for laminar-turbulent transition corresponds to the parametric amplification of 3D secondary instabilities in the presence of 2D, finite amplitude second mode disturbances. The secondary instability of second mode disturbances is studied for selected canonical flow configurations. The basic state for the secondary instability analysis is obtained by tracking the linear and nonlinear evolution of 2D, second mode disturbances using nonlinear parabolized stability equations. Unlike in previous studies, the selection of primary disturbances used for the secondary instability analysis was based on their potential relevance to transition in a low disturbance environment and the effects of nonlinearity on the evolution of primary disturbances was accounted for. Strongly nonlinear effects related to the self-interaction of second mode disturbances lead to an upstream shift in the upper branch neutral location. Secondary instability computations confirm the previously known dominance of subharmonic modes at relatively small primary amplitudes. However, for the Purdue Mach 6 compression cone configuration, it was shown that a strong fundamental secondary instability can exist for a range of initial amplitudes of the most amplified second mode disturbance, indicating that the exclusive focus on subharmonic modes in the previous applications of secondary instability theory to second mode primary instability may not have been fully justified.

Li, Fei↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Space Crop Production Gaps and Challenges

As astronauts venture farther from Earth, and stay for longer periods, the space food system will increase in importance. Crop production can supplement a pre-packaged space diet to provide nutrition and dietary variety for space crews. In future missions, bioregenerative approaches may be used to generate a larger percentage of the diet, as well as help to reduce life support system burdens and resupply from Earth. Plants may also provide behavioral health benefits to crew members living in the isolated, confined environment of a space habitat. A number of unique challenges exist for growth of plants in microgravity and on other reduced gravity surfaces like the moon and Mars. Testing plant growth inside the Veggie and Advanced Plant Habitat (APH) chambers on the International Space Station is allowing us to understand the impacts of gravity and spaceflight on crop growth, nutritional content, acceptability, and the importance of plants to astronauts living and working away from Earth. We are also gaining a better understanding of food safety concerns and the behavior of space plant microbiomes and plant pathogens, but major gaps in knowledge remain. As we move from research towards operational space crop production to enable exploration, there are numerous gaps in technology, knowledge, and practice related to space crop growth that must be addressed. Research and development in key focus areas such as effective water and nutrient delivery at variable gravity levels, autonomous plant health monitoring, growth system cleaning and disinfection, and selection of ideal space crops are needed to fill these gaps. Breeding or engineering custom space crops may impact areas including plant growth and development, plant physiology, produce nutrition, organoleptic acceptability, and post-harvest characteristics, and these may further enable space crop production scenarios. Space crop challenges are multifaceted and require diverse interdisciplinary teams working together to develop effective solutions. Solving these requires an array of skill sets from across the biological and physical sciences, engineering, and human social sciences. Solutions to help ensure food security off-Earth may also translate to more sustainable terrestrial crop production approaches, and regular dialog between industry, academia, and government organizations working in related fields benefit all. Additional help can come from engagement with student researchers at various levels through courses, participatory science projects, and open science activities which can provide useful data. Global coordination and integration between space agencies and partners will be essential.

Gioia Donna Massa↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Space Crop Production Gaps and Challenges

As astronauts venture farther from Earth, and stay for longer periods, the space food system will increase in importance. Crop production can supplement a pre-packaged space diet to provide nutrition and dietary variety for space crews. In future missions, bioregenerative approaches may be used to generate a larger percentage of the diet, as well as help to reduce life support system burdens and resupply from Earth. Plants may also provide behavioral health benefits to crew members living in the isolated, confined environment of a space habitat. A number of unique challenges exist for growth of plants in microgravity and on other reduced gravity surfaces like the moon and Mars. Testing plant growth inside the Veggie and Advanced Plant Habitat (APH) chambers on the International Space Station is allowing us to understand the impacts of gravity and spaceflight on crop growth, nutritional content, acceptability, and the importance of plants to astronauts living and working away from Earth. We are also gaining a better understanding of food safety concerns and the behavior of space plant microbiomes and plant pathogens, but major gaps in knowledge remain. As we move from research towards operational space crop production to enable exploration, there are numerous gaps in technology, knowledge, and practice related to space crop growth that must be addressed. Research and development in key focus areas such as effective water and nutrient delivery at variable gravity levels, autonomous plant health monitoring, growth system cleaning and disinfection, and selection of ideal space crops are needed to fill these gaps. Breeding or engineering custom space crops may impact areas including plant growth and development, plant physiology, produce nutrition, organoleptic acceptability, and post-harvest characteristics, and these may further enable space crop production scenarios. Space crop challenges are multifaceted and require diverse interdisciplinary teams working together to develop effective solutions. Solving these requires an array of skill sets from across the biological and physical sciences, engineering, and human social sciences. Solutions to help ensure food security off-Earth may also translate to more sustainable terrestrial crop production approaches, and regular dialog between industry, academia, and government organizations working in related fields benefit all. Additional help can come from engagement with student researchers at various levels through courses, participatory science projects, and open science activities which can provide useful data. Global coordination and integration between space agencies and partners will be essential.

Gioia Massa↗