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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2018

The OpenSE Cookbook: A Practical, Recipe Based Collection of Patterns, Procedures, and Best Practices for Executable Systems Engineering for the Thirty Meter Telescope

The OpenSE Cookbook is an open-sourced collection of patterns, procedures, and best practices targeted for systems engineers who seek guidance on applying model-based and executable systems engineering (MBSE) using SysML. Its content has emerged from the system level modeling effort on the European Framework Program 6 (FP6) and the Thirty Meter Telescope (TMT). The TMT MBSE approach applied the Executable Systems Engineering Method (ESEM) and the open-source Engineering Environment (OpenMBEE) to specify, analyze, and verify requirements of TMT’s Alignment and Phasing System (APS) and the Narrow Field Infrared Adaptive Optics System (NFIRAOS). In these applications, implicit dependencies are made explicit in a formal model through the use of ESEM, OpenMBEE, and SysML modeling constructs. The value proposition for applying this MBSE approach was to establish precise requirements and fine-grained traceability to system designs, and to verify key requirements beginning early in development. The integration of ESEM and the OpenMBEE tooling infrastructure (providing linked-data and web-operability) is a significant added value for the MBSE approach. The APS is responsible for the overall pre-adaptive optics wavefront quality, using starlight to measure wavefront errors and align the TMT optics. In the formally integrated and executable SysML model, simulations are performed to analyze the impact of changed requirements and verify specified constraints for various operational scenarios. The APS team used several modeling patterns to capture information such as the requirements, the operational scenarios, involved subsystems and their interaction points, the estimated or required time durations, and the mass and power consumption. Adaptive optics systems are designed to sense real-time atmospheric turbulence and correct the telescope’s optical beam to remove its effect. The system model for the adaptive optics operational modes was developed to capture sequence behaviors and operational scenarios to run Monte-Carlo simulations for verifying acquisition time, observing efficiency, and operational behavior requirements. The model is particularly useful for investigating the effect of parallelization, identifying interface issues, and re-ordering sequence acquisition tasks. A former version of the Cookbook (which is now updated to MBSE challenges, goals, and lessons learned) included modeling guidelines and conventions for all system aspects, hierarchy levels, and views, which were developed during for the Active Phasing Experiment (APE), an opto-mechatronical system technology demonstrator for the Extremely Large Telescope (ELT). The Cookbook utilizes the above mentioned system models as real-world case-studies to demonstrate and document the applications of the recipes, providing also instructional examples and addressing the available tooling support. The Cookbook is accompanied by a number of SysML models and aodel libraries which facilitate model authoring and maintenance. The Cookbook covers the different aspects of Systems Engineering such as management of Requirements, Design (behavior and structure), Interfaces, Interdisciplinary Integration, Analysis, Trade Studies, and Technical Resources. This paper presents the background, motivation, architecture, and highlights some key content of the Cookbook. For example, interface management, error budget management, requirements verification, Monte Carlo driven analysis, and timing analysis of operational scenarios. The paper discusses how the capabilities of OpenMBEE contributed significantly to the adoption of executable systems engineering.

Brower, Eric↗
DOE OSTI2020

Measurement Uncertainty in One-Of-A-Kind Event Data Analysis

A golden standard in science is to repeat an experiment a statistically significant number of times, recording data using the same set of detectors and the same data analysis methodology. In such case experimental error includes both the range of true values generated by repetitions of the experiment, and measurement uncertainty caused by the detector. They are independent. It is a huge and too frequently used simplification, to assume that one can measure multiple repetitions of an identical experiment, resulting in identical true experimental value. Repetitions, as similar is it is experimentally achievable, have unavoidable built-in differences resulting in a range of the true values rather than in a single value. When modern, very sensitive and well calibrated measurement systems are used, this range is not negligible, and sometimes dominates over the measurement uncertainty. Range of true values depends on built-in differences in physics of the experiment. Stochastic physical processes result typically in a broader range of true values than non-stochastic processes do. Measurement uncertainty depends on a measurement method (properties of the detector not of the experiment). Modern measurement methods, including digital ones, frequently make the measurement uncertainty very small. When data from one–of –a kind experiment are analyzed, only the measurement uncertainty is reported. It provides no information about the range of true experimental values, neither about reliability of a reported data point. Reliability of a data point is in general independent from its measurement uncertainty. However, in practice reliable measurement methods frequently have high measurement uncertainty, while low reliability methods are applied to limit measurement uncertainty. Comparison of reliable data with high measurement uncertainty to not so reliable data measured with low uncertainty is discussed – in different scenarios different data analysis methods are applicable. Methods for data analysis from an experiment repeated statistically significant number of times are very well developed. They do not require a detailed expertise in physics of an experiment, nor in the properties of the measurement system used, and meaning of the reported uncertainty is well understood in any scientific community. It all changes when data from one-of-a-kind experiment is analyzed. Analyst’s expertise is required both in the physics of the experiment and in all aspects of the measurement system, all possible malfunctions. Data users must remember that only measurement uncertainty is reported from any one-of-a-kind experiment. Theory with simulations may provide estimation of expected built-in differences in the experiment, and by this of expected range of true values for a given experiment; yet measurement uncertainty can never be used in place of the range of true experimental values.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2020

Uncertainty about the Uncertainty [Slides]

A golden standard in science is to repeat an experiment a statistically significant number of times, recording data using the same set of detectors and the same data analysis methodology. In such case experimental error includes both the range of true values generated by repetitions of the experiment, and measurement uncertainty caused by the detector. They are independent. It is a huge and too frequently used simplification, to assume that one can measure multiple repetitions of an identical experiment, resulting in identical true experimental value. Repetitions, as similar is it is experimentally achievable result in a range of the true values rather than in a single value. When modern, very sensitive and well calibrated measurement systems are used, this range is not negligible, and sometimes dominates, in comparison to the measurement uncertainty. Range of true values depends on the physics of the experiment, while measurement uncertainty depends on the measurement method (properties of the detector not of the experiment). When data from one–of–a kind experiment are analyzed, only the measurement uncertainty is reported. It gives no information about the range, in which the true values of experiment would spread if the experiment was repeated. A frequently used approximation, that if a physical quantity is measured as a function of time, only measurement of this quantity, produces uncertainty is also in some real experiments fare to strong. Example: In reaction history time measurement uncertainty propagated to alpha dominated under certain conditions over the flux measurement uncertainty propagated to alpha. Reliability of a data point is in general independent from its measurement uncertainty. However, in practice reliable measurement methods frequently have high measurement uncertainty, while low reliability methods are applied to limit measurement uncertainty. Comparison of reliable data with high measurement uncertainty to not so reliable data measured with low uncertainty is discussed – in different scenarios different data analysis methods are applicable.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Igiugig Site Visit Report

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) team conducted a site visit during January 23-25, 2019 with the Igiugig Village Council (IVC) and other stakeholders to assist the community of Igiugig in refining their long-term energy strategy. The agenda included a tour of the village, data collection, presentations, long-term visioning exercises, identification of energy scenarios, and a school presentation. Participants in the site visit activities spanned a range of local, regional, government, and industry participation. There were 24 attendees at the all-day community workshop on Thursday, January 24th, with participants from the IVC, NREL, Bristol Bay Native Association (BBNA), Bristol Bay Native Corporation (BBNC), Lake and Peninsula Borough, Alaska Energy Authority, Intergrid, ORPC, Deer Stone Consulting, the Southwest Alaska Municipal Conference, and University of Alaska Fairbanks - Alaska Center for Energy and Power. Igiugig is a well-organized rural Alaskan community, with a leadership team that appears to have broad community support. The use of consensus-based decision making is one tangible example of how the leadership team actively invokes and promotes community-focused thinking. The NREL team observed anecdotal evidence of how this approach seems to be strengthening the community: active participation in the visioning exercise, a student hosted fund-raiser dinner at the school, a clean and organized landfill, and well-maintained roads and buildings. Igiugig has wind, solar, and river hydrokinetic resources readily available within the community. Wind has shown to be a promising resource in the region, and has been integrated into microgrids around the state, but the community has had mixed success with wind technologies: some devices failed quickly and others continue to operate. The economics of solar energy are improving in Alaska, and economical solar projects are being installed around the state. Considering that economic activity in Igiugig peaks during the summer sport fishing season, solar could prove to be a valuable supplement to the electrical system. Igiugig has been a test site for two different river hydrokinetic devices, and they have began a third project to operate ORPC's RivGen device, which is delivering valuable device performance data, operations and maintenance experience, and design refinement information. Already, this device has made over 7-million revolutions, and delivered over 8 MWh of power to the community. Igiugig's river resource is fairly unique because it is available year-round and has the potential to provide reliable base-load power for months at a time. A preliminary investigation of this diverse resource mix suggests that Igiugig could achieve very high levels (70% or more) of annual renewable generation contributions. A critical step in pursuing this path is identifying the mix of energy assets (generation and storage) that best meets the community's budget, needs, and goals. The assets that a community installs early in their grid-modernization initiative can constrain the options that are economical at later stages, which may lead to sub-optimal solutions. This is where technical and economic analysis of potential scenarios (i.e., distinct mixes of energy assets) can be useful in identifying the most promising pathways so that a community can make informed and strategic decisions about the assets they install. These analyses are most accurate and informative when they are based on actual technology performance and cost data. As the RivGen project continues to operate and generate this data, we will be better prepared to evaluate the technology's long-term viability and to identify research areas that would improve it. Igiugig's energy projects are at the cutting edge of two intersecting technology areas: 1) deploying an operational river hydrokinetic turbine, and 2) integrating renewable energy sources to achieve very high percent renewables. If these projects are successful, the lessons learned and technologies developed could be valuable for other microgrids around the world. Igiugig's unique resource mix make it an ideal location for this work, and the community's organizational strength make it an ideal partner in this ground-breaking work. Ongoing support for technical assistance to manage and address technical challenges along the way will maximize the probability of project success.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Gravity-improved metastability bounds for the Type-I seesaw mechanism

Right-handed neutrinos (RHN) destabilize the electroweak vacuum by increasing its decay rate. In the SM, the latter is dominated by physics at the RG scale at which λ reaches its minimum, ${\mu}_{\ast}^{\textrm{SM}}$ ~10 17 GeV. For large neutrino Yukawa coupling Y ν , RHNs can push μ* beyond the Planck scale, implying that gravitational effects need to be taken into account. In this work, we perform the first comprehensive study of electroweak vacuum metastability in the type-I seesaw mechanism including these effects. Our analysis covers both low- and high-scale seesaw models, with two as well as three RHNs and for multiple values of the Higgs’ non-minimal coupling to gravity. We find that gravitational effects can significantly stabilize the vacuum, leading to weaker metastability bounds. We show that metastability sets the strongest bounds for low-scale seesaws with M N > 1 TeV. For high-scale seesaws, we find upper bounds on the allowed masses for the RHNs, which are relevant for high-scale leptogenesis. We also point out that Tr(${Y}_{\nu}^{\dagger}$Y ν ), which is commonly used to express these metastability bounds, cannot be used for all of parameter space. Instead, we argue that bounds can always be expressed reliably through Tr(${Y}_{\nu}^{\dagger}$Y ν ${Y}_{\nu}^{\dagger}$Y ν ). Lastly, we use this insight to develop a new technique for an easier RG analysis applicable to scenarios with degenerate RHN masses.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Water vapor oxidation of SiC layer in surrogate TRISO fuel particles

Under accidental conditions for high temperature gas-cooled reactors (HTGR), the SiC layer in tri-structural-isotropic (TRISO) fuel particles can be exposed to water vapor. In this study, oxidation behaviors of surrogate TRISO fuel particles were investigated in a He-20 vol% water vapor mixed atmosphere at temperatures up to 1600 °C. The growth of the crystalline oxide passivation layer with cracks and pores followed a parabolic law with time, where the maximum was 2.3 μm at 1600 °C. The oxide layer and the SiC surface under the oxide became flattened with increasing temperature, as a function of the silica viscosity and the diffusion path of water vapor. Volatilization of the oxide layer was analyzed using a mechanistic model that an inert gas in oxidizing atmospheres could influence the magnitude of volatilization. The fracture load and strength of the oxidized and thinned SiC layer were numerically estimated to decrease from 2.27 to 1.69 N and from 317 to 299 MPa, respectively, with the SiC thickness decrease from 35 to 32 μm. This prediction indicates that the oxidized SiC layer should retain fission products. Additionally, the mechanical integrity of each layer in the TRISO fuel particle after oxidation was evaluated. The results in this work provide important data for the safety analysis of accidental scenarios in HTGRs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Steady-state fuel performance analyses for the preliminary fuel concept of general atomics fast modular reactor

Here this manuscript presents the fuel performance analysis results of the General Atomics Fast Modular Reactor (FMR) based on an axi-symmetric (2D-RZ) geometry. Three fuel performance model sets that fit the FMR fuel specifications best, i.e., a BISON baseline model set, a BISON diffusion enhancement model set, and a BISON-FASTGRASS model set, were identified and evaluated against a series of relevant experimental cases featuring high burnup and low irradiation temperature conditions. The three BISON-based model sets were then utilized to conduct a comprehensive fuel performance analysis of the FMR fuel under normal operation including the shutdown/restarting periods for refueling. The evaluation of the fuel performance parameters, represented by temperature, internal pressure, stress, and strain, shows that the FMR fuel maintains its thermal and mechanical integrity during normal operation. Technology gaps and limitations are also discussed to guide future efforts for extending the performance analysis to transient scenarios as well as improving the fuel performance evaluation through experiments.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

A review of future weather data for assessing climate change impacts on buildings and energy systems

The effectiveness of climate change impact assessments and the development of adaptation strategies depend on the availability of high-quality future weather data. However, significant gaps exist between the needs of the energy research community and the focus of the climate modeling community, primarily due to a historical lack of communication and collaboration between the two groups. Here, to address this issue, this work provides a comprehensive overview of the critical aspects involved in creating future weather data for building and energy system modeling, including emissions scenarios, general circulation models, downscaling methods, categories of future weather data, and uncertainties in climate simulations. Moreover, it critically evaluates the applicability and suitability of various types of future weather data in five key application scenarios: energy use analysis, resilience analysis, HVAC design, utility-scale analysis, and renewable energy analysis. Finally, this work presents recommendations for high-level actions and research directions to foster collaboration between the energy research and climate modeling communities and to promote the integration of future weather data into energy codes and the design practices of buildings and energy systems.

Climate change↗
DOE OSTI2021

Techno-economic comparison of electrification for heavy-duty trucks in China by 2040

We show that electrification of heavy-duty trucks (HDTs) is critical of achieving sustainability and carbon neutrality in road freight. Based on the total cost of ownership and the life-cycle emissions, the study compared the traditional diesel internal combustion engine vehicle technologies with potential electrification options for HDTs in China, including battery electric vehicle, plug-in hybrid electric vehicle, hydrogen fuel cell vehicle, and battery electric catenary vehicle. Scenario and sensitivity analysis were explored the life-cycle effects of these electrification options in China from 2020 to 2040. It is found that green electricity and green hydrogen are the most important factors influencing the life-cycle emissions of CO 2 , NO X , and PM 2.5 for different HDTs’ electrification options. The plug-in hybrid electric vehicle of HDTs has shown good performance in terms of total cost and carbon emissions, mainly due to the reduced battery capacity and the current grid mix in China.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Minimum GHG emissions and energy consumption of U.S. PET and polyolefin packaging supply chains in a circular economy

There is a wide agreement on the urgency of transforming linear management of plastics towards a circular economy model. However, no clear pathways exist as to required recycling technologies involved and system-wide environmental impacts. This study explores such pathways in the U.S. for the most commonly used packaging plastics through a combination of mechanical and emerging advanced recycling technologies. A system optimization model aimed at minimizing environmental impacts was developed to determine optimal end-of-life (EOL) management and locations of existing and emerging U.S. recycling infrastructures. Our study includes material flows from virgin resin production through semi-manufacturing processes to existing EOL disposal and recycling processes. An optimized circular plastics packaging system achieved greenhouse gas (GHG) emission savings of up to 28% and cumulative energy demand (CED) savings of up to 46%, compared to the linear economy. Moreover, these savings of GHG emissions and CED impacts represent a reduction of 0.16% and 0.49% compared to annual U.S. GHG emissions and energy consumption in 2022, respectively. The optimal recycling rates and systems-level circularity ranged from 78–99% and 57–75%, respectively. Increased energy savings led to increased GHG emissions showing a potential trade-off between GHG emissions and energy. Analysis of 40 scenarios showed the importance of material collection distances, blend limit of mechanically recycled resins, process yields, and mandated recycling rates for achieving a sustainable circular economy of plastics.

09 - BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

MHD stability trends and improved performance of LHD inward-shifted configurations: The role of the neutral beam current drive and thermal plasma density

The aim of the present study is to analyze the effect of the neutral beam current drive (NBCD), thermal plasma density, and NBI operational regime on the stability of pressure gradient-driven modes (PGDM) and Alfvén eigenmodes (AE) in LHD inward-shifted configurations. The stabilization of n/m = 1/2 PGDM (n toroidal mode and m poloidal mode) is observed in the discharge 167 800 during the co-NBCD phase. The iota profile evolution measured by motional stark effect diagnostic may indicate the iota profile up-shift caused by the co-NBCD can induce a non-resonant transition of the rational surface 1/2 before the mode stabilization. The evolution of the iota profile and continuum gaps in the discharge 167 805 during the ctr-NBCD phase leads to the stabilization of the AE, caused by the narrowing of the continuum gap as the iota profile down-shift. Opposite stability trends are identified for PGDM and AE stability with respect to the thermal plasma density. A larger thermal plasma density (larger thermal β) further enhances PGDM although the continuum gaps are narrower leading to configurations with stable AEs. The linear stability of AEs is analyzed using the gyro-fluid FAR3d code to reproduce the AE stability trends observed in the experiments with respect to the NBCD and thermal plasma density. The analysis of hypothetical scenarios dedicated to study different NBI operational regimes with respect to EP energy, and β and radial density profiles indicate off-axis NBI operation shows a higher EP β threshold to destabilize AEs compared to on-axis configuration. This is explained by the presence of a TAE gap in the inner plasma region, easily destabilized by an on-axis NBI injection. The control of the NBCD and thermal plasma in the discharge 167 800 shows a transitory stabilization of PGDM and AEs, as well as an improved discharge performance identified by an increment of the neutron fluxes.

Varela, Jacobo↗
DOE OSTI2024

Demystifying group-4 polyolefin hydrogenolysis catalysis: Gaseous propane hydrogenolysis mechanism over the same catalysts

A kinetic/mechanistic investigation of gaseous propane hydrogenolysis over the single-site heterogeneous polyolefin depolymerization catalysts AlS/ZrNp 2 and AlS/HfNp 2 (AlS = sulfated alumina, Np = neopentyl), is use to probe intrinsic catalyst properties without the complexities introduced by time- and viscosity-dependent polymer medium effects. In a polymer-free automated plug-flow catalytic reactor, propane hydrogenolysis turnover frequencies approach 3,000 h −1 at 150 °C. Both catalysts exhibit approximately linear relationships between rate and [H 2 ] at substoichiometric [H 2 ] with rate law orders of 0.66 ± 0.09 and 0.48 ± 0.07 for Hf and Zr, respectively; at higher [H 2 ], the rates approach zero-order in [H 2 ]. Reaction orders in [C 3 H 8 ] and [catalyst] are essentially zero-order under all conditions, with the former implying rapid, irreversible alkane binding/activation. This rate law, activation parameter, and DFT energy span analysis support a scenario in which [H 2 ] is pivotal in one of two plausible and competing rate-determining transition states—bimolecular metal-alkyl bond hydrogenolysis vs. unimolecular β-alkyl elimination. The Zr and Hf catalyst activation parameters, ΔH ‡ = 16.8 ± 0.2 kcal mol −1 and 18.2 ± 0.6 kcal mol −1 , respectively, track the relative turnover frequencies, while ΔS ‡ = −19.1 ± 0.8 and −16.7 ± 1.4 cal mol −1 K −1 , respectively, imply highly organized transition states. These catalysts maintain activity up to 200 °C, while time-on-stream data indicate multiday activities with an extrapolated turnover number ~92,000 at 150 °C for the Zr catalyst. This methodology is attractive for depolymerization catalyst discovery and process optimization.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2020

On hybrid scenarios in KSTAR

We report the status of hybrid scenario experiments in Korea Superconducting Tokamak Advanced Research (KSTAR). The hybrid scenario is defined as stationary discharges with ${\beta _{\rm{N}}}$ $ \geqslant $ 2.4 and ${H_{89}}$ $ \geqslant $ 2.0 at ${q_{95}}$ < 6.5 without or with very mild sawtooth activities in KSTAR. It is being developed towards reactor-relevant conditions. High performance of ${\beta _{\rm{N}}} \lesssim 3.0$, ${H_{89}} \lesssim 2.4$ and G-factor ($ \equiv {\beta _{\rm{N}}}{H_{89}}/q_{95}^2$) $ \lesssim 0.4$6 has been achieved and sustained for $ \gtrsim 40{{\tau }_{\text{E}}}$ at ne/nGW ~ 0.7 with heating power of $ \lesssim $5 MW. Some KSTAR hybrid discharges exhibit a unique feature of a slow transition from conventional H-mode to hybrid mode after the third neutral beam injection. The reason for the confinement enhancement is extensively studied in this transition period of a representative discharge exhibiting a common feature of KSTAR hybrid scenarios. 0D performance analysis with magnetohydrodynamic activities, 1D kinetic profile dynamics, power balance analysis, linear gyro-kinetic analysis and edge pedestal stability analysis were conducted. The enhancement is thought to be from both the core and the pedestal. The improvement in the core region of the ion energy channel is observed from the linear gyro-kinetic analysis considering the electromagnetic, the fast ion, the Shafranov shift, ${\it{\omega }_{E \times B}}$, and the magnetic shear effect. The electromagnetic finite $\beta $ stabilisation plays a role in the inner core region at ${\rho _{\rm{tor}}}\sim0.35$ together with the fast ion effect. The alpha stabilisation effect is also found at ${\rho _{\rm{tor}}}\sim0.5$. ${\omega _{E \times B}}$, which could reduce the linear growth of the ion temperature gradient mode in the outer core region at ${\rho _{\rm{tor}}}\sim0.5 - 0.7$ with the highest contribution from the toroidal rotation. Furthermore, regarding the improvement in the pedestal, Shafranov shift broadens the stability boundary of the pedestal in support of the diamagnetic effect. The pedestal height and width could be reproduced by the EPED model, while a realistic current profile is used to calculate the internal inductance for Shafranov shift. Based on these findings, a comprehensive confinement enhancement mechanism has been proposed by considering the core-edge interplay.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Exploring Demographic Factors Behind the User Preferences in Ridesharing Services

Ridesharing is an increasingly prevalent form of transportation. Personal and pooled rideshare services are the two modes of ridesharing available on the market. While personal rideshare features higher time efficiency and better service experience, especially in terms of privacy, pooled rideshare has better energy efficiency and can reduce traffic congestion. To encourage users to utilize pooled rideshare, it is crucial to understand the factors behind preferences between pooled and personal rideshare services. This study conducted a survey study on a sample of 2,884 participants from the U.S. The stated-choice method was employed to collect the usage rate of pooled rideshare in designed scenarios. A detailed analysis of pooled rideshare usage rates among participants from different demographic backgrounds was performed. The results demonstrated demographic factors related to variations in pooled rideshare usage rates. Findings from this study explore the impacts of demographic factors on people's choices in ridesharing and provide important information for the modeling and optimization of ridesharing transportation systems.

Su, Haotian↗
DOE OSTI2023

A TCN-Based Hybrid Forecasting Framework for Hours-Ahead Utility-Scale PV Forecasting

This paper presents a Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN) based hybrid PV forecasting framework for enhancing hours-ahead utility-scale PV forecasting. The hybrid framework consists of two forecasting models: a physics-based trend forecasting (TF) model and a data-driven fluctuation forecasting (FF) model. Three TCNs are integrated in the framework for: i) blending the inputs from different Numerical Weather Prediction sources for the TF model to achieve superior performance on forecasting hourly PV profiles, ii) capturing spatial-temporal correlations between detector sites and the target site in the FF model to achieve more accurate forecast of intra- hour PV power drops, and iii) reconciling TF and FF results to obtain coherent hours-ahead PV forecast with both hourly trends and intra-hour fluctuations well preserved. To automatically identify the most contributive neighboring sites for forming a detector network, a scenario-based correlation analysis method is developed, which significantly improves the capability of the FF model on capturing large power fluctuations caused by cloud movements. Here, the framework is developed, tested, and validated using actual PV data collected from 95 PV farms in North Carolina. Simulation results show that the performance of 6 hours ahead PV power forecasting is improved by 20% - 30% compared with state-of-the-art methods.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

elci-scenario-modeler

A GitHub repository hosting the Python package, grid_mixer, designated for creating the link between the electricity baseline and scenarios for impact analysis.

Electric Generation and Transmission↗
DOE OSTI2019

Finding Pennsylvania's Solar Future (Final Technical Report)

Finding Pennsylvania’s Solar Future (Project) was a project of the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) Energy Program’s Office (EPO) with funding from the U.S. Department of Energy Solar Energy Technologies Office. DEP brought together a project team that included Citizens for Pennsylvania’s Future (PennFuture), the Vermont Energy Investment Corporation (VEIC), and Pennsylvania-based solar subject matter experts (“Facilitators”) Sharon Pillar, Dr. Jeffrey Brownson, Ron Celentano, and Maureen Mulligan. The goals of the project were to explore whether Pennsylvania has sufficient technical and economic potential to increase in-state solar generation to provide 10 percent of its electricity consumption by 2030 and to identify potential pathways to achieve this target, as well as to explore the associated economic, environmental, and health impacts of achieving the goal. The project had four essential activities: stakeholder engagement, scenario modeling and analysis, strategy development, and dissemination and outreach.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2019

A Phenomenological Model for the Transport and Plugging of Aerosol through Stress Corrosion Cracks

Recent experimental evidence from Sandia (2018) demonstrated partial microchannel plugging due to particulate deposition. A direct consequence is that the accuracy of consequence assessments can be improved by accounting for the leak path deposition of aerosol in the source term. The filtration effect of microchannels, such as cracks, is relevant to the source term assessments. An important side effect of aerosol deposition in leak paths could be the plugging of the leak path. This report summarizes current progress (as of end of FY19) on the development of a phenomenological model of aerosol transport, deposition, and plugging through microchannels. The purpose is to introduce a generic, reliable numerical model for prediction of aerosol transport, deposition, and plugging in leak paths that are similar to stress corrosion cracks while accounting for potential plugging formation. This effort includes (i) development of a numerical model to analyze the various deposition processes in leak paths and provide quantitative estimates of penetration factors, as well as an understanding of the variables that affect them, (ii) confirmation of model validity with theoretical and experimental data, and (iii) parametric analysis for different scenarios including various particle sizes, pressures, and crack dimensions. Such a model could be used to improve the accuracy of consequence assessments and reduce the uncertainty of radiological consequence predictive analyses by taking the filtering effect of leak path aerosol deposition and plugging into account in the source term. This report includes: (i) an overview of main stress corrosion cracking characteristics, (ii) an overview of the developed numerical model to analyze the various deposition processes in leak paths, to provide quantitative estimates of penetration factors, and to gain an understanding of the variables that affect them, (iii) a summary of validation results and verification of the model’s validity with recent experimental results from Sandia and others, and (iv) a model application example.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗