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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 289 records · Page 16
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

How to identify different new neutrino oscillation physics scenarios at DUNE

Next generation neutrino oscillation experiments are expected to measure the remaining oscillation parameters with very good precision. They will have unprecedented capabilities to search for new physics that modify oscillations. DUNE, with its broad band beam, good particle identification, and relatively high energies will provide an excellent environment to search for new physics. If deviations from the standard three-flavor oscillation picture are seen however, it is crucial to know which new physics scenario is found so that it can be verified elsewhere and theoretically understood. We investigate several benchmark new physics scenarios by looking at existing long-baseline accelerator neutrino data from NOvA and T2K and determine at what sensitivity DUNE can differentiate among them. We consider sterile neutrinos and both vector and scalar non-standard neutrino interactions, all with new complex phases, the latter of which could conceivably provide absolute neutrino mass scale information. We find that, in many interesting cases, DUNE will have good model discrimination. We also perform a new fit to NOvA and T2K data with scalar NSI.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Impact of methane and black carbon mitigation on forcing and temperature: a multi-model scenario analysis

The relatively short atmospheric lifetimes of methane (CH 4 ) and black carbon (BC) have focused attention on the potential for reducing anthropogenic climate change by reducing Short-Lived Climate Forcer (SLCF) emissions. This paper examines radiative forcing and global mean temperature results from the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF)-30 multi-model suite of scenarios addressing CH 4 and BC mitigation, the two major short-lived climate forcers. Central estimates of temperature reductions in 2040 from an idealized scenario focused on reductions in methane and black carbon emissions ranged from 0.18–0.26 °C across the nine participating models. Reductions in methane emissions drive 60% or more of these temperature reductions by 2040, although the methane impact also depends on auxiliary reductions that depend on the economic structure of the model. Climate model parameter uncertainty has a large impact on results, with SLCF reductions resulting in as much as 0.3–0.7 °C by 2040. We find that the substantial overlap between a SLCF-focused policy and a stringent and comprehensive climate policy that reduces greenhouse gas emissions means that additional SLCF emission reductions result in, at most, a small additional benefit of ~ 0.1 °C in the 2030–2040 time frame.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Health and air pollutant emission impacts of net zero CO2 by 2050 scenarios from the energy modeling forum 37 study

Carbon dioxide and non-greenhouse gas air pollutants are emitted from many of the same sources. Decarbonization actions thus typically yield air pollutant emission reductions, resulting in significant air quality benefits. Although several studies have highlighted this connection, including in the context of net zero carbon emission targets, substantial uncertainty remains regarding how alternative technological pathways to this goal will affect the spatial distribution and magnitude of air pollutants. Comprehensive multi-model and multi-scenario analyzes are needed to explore the relative impacts of alternative pathways. Here, our study begins to address this gap by leveraging the results from the recent Energy Modeling Forum 37 inter-model comparison exercise on U.S. decarbonization pathways. Comparing the results of the six teams who submitted air pollutant emissions suggests that strategies that target net zero U.S. carbon emissions would yield significant reductions in many air pollutants, and that this finding is generally robust across pathways. However, some energy sources, such as biomass and fossil fuels with carbon capture, will emit air pollutants and can potentially influence the magnitude, spatial distribution, and even sign of localized air pollutant emission changes. In the second part of this analysis, a simplified air quality and health impacts screening model is used to evaluate the air quality impacts in 2035 of sectoral emission changes from the three models that provided sectoral detail. Relative to a reference scenario, a net zero pathway is estimated to reduce fine particulate matter concentrations across the contiguous U.S., with health benefits from reduced mortality ranging from $\$$65 billion to $\$$250 billion in 2035 alone (2023$\$$s). These benefits would be expected to grow over time as the net zero trajectory becomes more stringent. Both the magnitude of potential benefits and the substantial variation of the projections across models underscore the need for an EMF-like inter-model comparison exercise focused on air quality.

Air pollutants↗
DOE OSTI2022

Building energy efficiency and load flexibility optimization using phase change materials under futuristic grid scenario

This work investigates the energy savings and load flexibility capacity of phase change material (PCM) integrated into building envelope under a future energy generation scenario, where 80% of the energy load comes from renewable sources. Using community-scale modeling, we first determine the net thermal storage required to fully manage the demand variability at a utility grid, and then using whole-building simulations we optimize operating parameters - such as PCM thickness, latent heat, interior setpoint profile, PCM distribution, and heat transfer coefficient - to determine the optimal conditions required for maximum energy reduction and load flexibility without compromising occupants' thermal comfort. The optimal PCM-integrated envelope proposed in this study can provide annual load flexibility up to 33.6% and annual energy savings up to 10.8% in a lightweight residential building located in Baltimore, MD. This study is relevant given the increasing contributions of renewable energy in the total energy generation mix, leading to a significant time-imbalance between peak energy demand and peak energy production. While thermal energy storage using PCM is a recognized technique, there is no known prior study dedicated to examining the thermal performance of PCM-integrated envelope under future energy generation scenarios. This study bridges the research gap by investigating a practical way to implement PCMs in the buildings and maximize the energy efficiency as well as load flexibility related benefits.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Logistics simulation of a remediation effort for a hypothetical radiological contamination scenario

To mitigate the effects following a large-scale nuclear or radiological material release in an urban environment and to expedite recovery, the Integrated Wash-Aid Treatment Emergency Reuse System (IWATERS) was developed. IWATERS consists of three operations: washing contaminated surfaces with an ionic wash solution, collecting, and treating the contaminated wash solution on-site to remove contaminants, and reusing the treated solution throughout operations to preserve the clean water resource. This study develops a framework to simulate the logistics of IWATERS deployment, thereby gaining an understanding of the timeline for decontamination operations. For this purpose, the Analysis of Mobility Platform and GoldSim were leveraged for a hypothetical contamination scenario covering 65,200 m 2 of an urban center. The framework reveals that remediation progress is limited by several resources, notably the availability of vermiculite, a reactive clay that is required to treat the contaminated wash solution. Further, this study also presents how the simulation approach can be used to characterize alternatives to reduce the influence of limited resources on operational progress. Overall, this work lays the foundation for evaluating different decontamination methods through detailed logistics simulation, i.e., by refining simulation assumptions and expanding the range of scenarios the simulation can depict.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2022

A generic scenario analysis of end-of-life plastic management: Chemical additives

Plastic growing demand and the increment in global plastics production have raised the number of spent plastics, out of which over 90% are either landfilled or incinerated. Both methods for handling spent plastics are susceptible to releasing toxic substances, damaging air, water, soil, organisms, and public health. Improvements to the existing infrastructure for plastics management are needed to limit chemical additive release and exposure resulting from the end-of-life (EoL) stage. This article analyzes the current plastic waste management infrastructure and identifies chemical additive releases through a material flow analysis. Additionally, we performed a facility-level generic scenario analysis of the current U.S. EoL stage of plastic additives to track and estimate their potential migration, releases, and occupational exposure. Potential scenarios were analyzed through sensitivity analysis to examine the merit of increasing recycling rates, using chemical recycling, and implementing additive extraction post-recycling. Our analyses identified that the current state of plastic EoL management possesses high mass flow intensity toward incineration and landfilling. Although maximizing the plastic recycling rate is a reasonably straightforward goal for enhancing material circularity, the conventional mechanical recycling method requires improvement because major chemical additive release and contamination routes act as obstacles to achieving high-quality plastics for future reuse and should be mitigated through chemical recycling and additive extraction. In conclusion, the potential hazards and risks identified in this research create an opportunity to design a safer closed-loop plastic recycling infrastructure to handle additives strategically and support sustainable materials management efforts to transform the US plastic economy from linear to circular.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Simulation of the radiological impact during selected space travel scenarios using the Monte Carlo code FLUKA

Radiation is one of the major challenges of space exploration and can negatively impact both biological and electronic systems, particularly in the case of long-term journeys or if the spaceship features inadequate shielding. Here, in this work, the cumulative dose levels from prompt radiation in the spacecraft are quantified alongside the residual dose contributions arising from activation of vessel components. The radiological impact was assessed for various space exploration scenarios, considering the same spaceship model featuring three shielding design variants. In each scenario, the radiation environment was generated with the Monte Carlo particle transport and interaction code FLUKA. These results can be used to quantify the contribution of prompt and residual dose in spacefaring ventures and help determine optimal radiation shielding needed to mitigate the overall radiological impact on both astronauts and equipment.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Comparing the cooling effectiveness of operationalisable urban surface combination scenarios for summer heat mitigation

Extreme summer heat in cities exacerbates the vulnerability of urban communities to heatwaves. Vegetative and reflective urban surfaces can help reduce urban heat. This study investigated the impacts of urban trees, green roofs and cool roofs on heat mitigation during average and extreme summer conditions in temperate oceanic Melbourne, Australia. We simulated the city climate using ‘The Air Pollution Model’ (TAPM) at a 1 km spatial resolution over 10 years, which according to our review of the literature, was the most prolonged period for simulation in Melbourne. During a widespread heatwave event, some of the tested scenarios with combined surface parameters could reduce the extreme values of the energy budget components- sensible heat, latent heat, and storage heat fluxes up to seasonal averages compared to the existing situation for Melbourne (control). The scenario with the highest (reasonable maximum) ground-level vegetation, green roofs, and cool roofs could reduce air temperatures up to 2.4 °C. The simulations suggest that a combined strategy with vegetative and high-albedo surfaces will deliver higher effectiveness with maximum cooling benefits and cost-effectiveness than individual strategies in cities. These results suggest the importance of collaborative strategic planning of urban surfaces to make cities healthier, sustainable, and liveable.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

SSP‐Based Land‐Use Change Scenarios: A Critical Uncertainty in Future Regional Climate Change Projections

Abstract To better understand the role projected land‐use changes (LUCs) may play in future regional climate projections, we assess the combined effects of greenhouse‐gas (GHG)‐forced climate change and LUCs in regional climate model (RCM) simulations. To do so, we produced RCM simulations that are complementary to the North‐American Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (NA‐CORDEX) simulations, but with future LUCs that are consistent with particular Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and related to a specific Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP). We examine the state of the climate at the end of the 21st century with and without two urban and agricultural LUC scenarios that follow SSP3 and SSP5 using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model forced by one global climate model, the MPI‐ESM, under the RCP8.5 scenario. We find that LUCs following different societal trends under the SSPs can significantly affect climate projections in different ways. In regions of significant cropland expansion over previously forested area, projected annual mean temperature increases are diminished by around 0.5°C–1.0°C. Across all seasons, where urbanization is high, projected temperature increases are magnified. In particular, summer mean temperature projections are up to 4°C–5°C greater and minimum and maximum temperature projections are increased by 2.5°C–6°C, amounts that are on par with the warming due to GHG‐forced climate change. Warming is also enhanced in the urban surroundings. Future urbanization also has a large influence on precipitation projections during summer, increasing storm intensity, event length, and the overall amount over urbanized areas, and decreasing precipitation in surrounding areas.

Bukovsky, Melissa S.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Thunderstorm Activity Under Intermediate and Extreme Climate Change Scenarios

Assessing how increasing greenhouse gas concentrations may modify regional climates is an ongoing challenge. Relatively little work has examined how climate change may influence processes related to regional thunderstorm activity. This is important to consider in areas where thunderstorms are important for maintaining regional hydroclimates. Here, this study focuses on three convection-allowing climate simulations—namely, a retrospective simulation (1990–2005) and two possible climate change scenarios (2085–2100)—with domains encompassing the conterminous United States. Regional and seasonal variability is noted in the response of thunderstorm activity as measured by thresholds in simulated radar reflectivity factor in the two climate change scenarios. A decrease in thunderstorm activity is projected for the Southern Plains, whereas the Southeast and Midwest experience an increase in thunderstorm activity. An examination of environmental parameters related to thunderstorm activity reveals an overall increase in convective instability but spatially varying changes in convective inhibition.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Towards an open model intercomparison platform for integrated assessment models scenarios

The majority of scenarios in the IPCC database are generated by integrated assessment models (IAMs) and come from model intercomparison projects. However, the way in which the current model intercomparison projects are organized is not open to all IAM teams worldwide. Here we propose a transparent and inclusive platform that is open to anyone with an IAM regarding protocols development, scenario submissions and results evaluation. We discuss the challenges of this approach, particularly human resources and financial support. Here, we identify diversity in the level of model capability and quality of model output as possibly critical issues. Despite such challenges, the IAM community and its scientific activities can improve and benefit from the proposed platform, ultimately contributing to better climate policymaking.

IAM↗
DOE OSTI2025

Critically assessing sodium-ion technology roadmaps and scenarios for techno-economic competitiveness against lithium-ion batteries

Sodium-ion batteries have garnered notable attention as a potentially low-cost alternative to lithium-ion batteries, which have experienced supply shortages and price volatility for key minerals. Here we assess their techno-economic competitiveness against incumbent lithium-ion batteries using a modelling framework incorporating componential learning curves constrained by minerals prices and engineering design floors. We compare projected sodium-ion and lithium-ion price trends across over 6,000 scenarios while varying Na-ion technology development roadmaps, supply chain scenarios, market penetration and learning rates. Assuming that substantial progress can be made along technology roadmaps via targeted research and development, we identify several sodium-ion pathways that might reach cost-competitiveness with low-cost lithium-ion variants in the 2030s. In addition, we show that timelines are highly sensitive to movements in critical minerals supply chains—namely that of lithium, graphite and nickel. Our modelled outcomes suggest that being price advantageous against low-cost lithium-ion variants in the near term is challenging and increasing sodium-ion energy densities to decrease materials intensity is among the most impactful ways to improve competitiveness.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

The ratio of mesoscale convective system precipitation to total precipitation increases in future climate change scenarios

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are a substantial source of precipitation in the eastern U.S. and may be sensitive to regional climatic change. We use a suite of convection-permitting climate simulations to examine possible changes in MCS precipitation. Specifically, annual and regional totals of MCS and non-MCS precipitation generated during a retrospective simulation are compared to end-of-21st-century simulations based on intermediate and extreme climate change scenarios. Both scenarios produce more MCS precipitation and less non-MCS precipitation, thus significantly increasing the proportion of precipitation associated with MCSs across the U.S.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Improving DFIG performance under fault scenarios through evolutionary reinforcement learning based control

The double-fed induction generator (DFIG) usually experiences high rotor current and DC capacitor link voltage during system fault events. In this paper, a novel data-driven approach is proposed to enhance the DFIG performance under fault scenarios. An advanced reinforcement learning (RL) algorithm called guided surrogate-gradient-based evolution strategy (GSES) is used to control the DFIG power and capacitor DClink voltage by adjusting the optional reference signals. This controller is able to prevent the rotor of DFIG from overcurrent risk and maintain the grid-connected operation. The proposed GSES-based control algorithm was evaluated through simulations on a 3.6-MW DFIG in PSCAD/EMTDC software. Results have validated the effectiveness of the proposed GSESbased control algorithm in improving the DFIG performance under fault scenarios.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Progress with applications of three-ion ICRF scenarios for fusion research: A review

The viability of magnetic confinement fusion as an energy source depends on achieving the high ion temperatures required for D-T fusion. Among the available techniques, plasma heating with waves in the ion cyclotron range of frequencies (ICRF) is a prominent method for bulk ion heating in fusion plasmas. Furthermore, a detailed understanding of the non-linear physics of alpha heating and the complex impact of MeV-range fast ions on plasma dynamics becomes progressively more important. This paper provides a comprehensive overview of recent developments with the three-ion ICRF scenarios on Alcator C-Mod, ASDEX Upgrade and JET tokamaks. The results demonstrate the flexibility of these novel scenarios for heating bulk ions in D-T ≈ 50%-50% plasmas and efficient generation of MeV-range fast ions in multi-ion species plasmas. In conclusion, several key results relevant for ITER and future fusion reactors are highlighted.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Expanded Accident Scenarios and Frequency Characteristics for a Fast Spectrum Molten Salt Reactor in an Integrated Energy System

Integration of advanced nuclear reactors to industrial processes in an integrated energy system (IES) has many potential advantages. The coupling of nuclear power to varied industrial processes introduces additional accident scenarios unique to the specific systems included in the IES. Similarly, noise in one system of the IES could potentially create negative effects in the other systems. Because of the limited amount of comparable nuclear IES operating experience, there is added value in scoping the inherent behavior of these systems in response to these transients. Here, this paper investigates the safety-related behavior of an open-source IES dynamic model of a fast spectrum molten salt reactor (MSR) powering a regenerative Rankine cycle for electricity production and a hybrid sulfur (HyS) cycle for hydrogen production. The simulations include a loss of cooling water to the Rankine cycle, a loss of sulfur in the HyS cycle, and the frequency characteristics of the entire IES across six orders of magnitude of frequency. The results show safe behavior in response to the two accident scenarios, wherein a disruption in heat transfer leads to increased salt temperatures and a decrease in reactor power. The frequency analysis shows that at higher frequencies, temperature changes propagating through an IES are increasingly damped to the point of negligibility.

Dunkle, Nicholas [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, T↗
DOE OSTI2024

NBI optimization on SMART and implications for scenario development

Abstract The SMall Aspect Ratio Tokamak (SMART) under commissioning at the University of Seville, Spain, aims to explore confinement properties and possible advantages in confinement for compact/spherical tokamaks operating at negative vs. positive triangularity. This work explores the benefits of auxiliary heating through Neutral Beam Injection (NBI) for SMART scenarios beyond the initial Ohmic phase of operations, in support of the device’s mission. Expected values of electron and ion temperature achievable with NBI heating are first predicted for the current flat-top phase, including modeling to optimize the NBI injection geometry to maximize NBI absorption and minimize losses for a given equilibrium. Simulations are then extended for a selected case to cover the current ramp-up phase. Differences with results obtained for the flat-top phase indicate the importance of determining the plasma evolution over time, as well as self-consistently determining the edge plasma parameters for reliable time-dependent simulations. Initial simulation results indicate the advantage of auxiliary NBI heating to achieve nearly double values of pressure and stored energy compared to Ohmic discharges, thus significantly increasing the device’s performance. The scenarios developed in this work will also contribute to diagnostic development and optimization for SMART, as well as providing test cases for initial predictions of macro- and micro-instabilities.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Low- n stability and plasma response to RMP in various STEP scenarios

The low-n (n is the toroidal mode number) magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) stability and plasma response are numerically investigated for various scenarios designed for STEP, that are relevant for the H-mode pedestal analysis. Control of the edge-localized modes (ELMs) with externally applied resonant magnetic perturbations (RMPs) is considered. Optimization of the ELM control coil current configuration, based on the computed plasma MHD response and well-established figures of merit validated on present-day experiments, finds reasonable robustness of a fixed coil phasing (for a given n-number) to control ELMs in all five STEP plasmas considered. Based on certain semi-empirical criteria, the required coil current to achieve ELM suppression is estimated to be about 10–20 kAt with the n = 1 or 2 RMP configuration and about 100–200 kAt for the n = 4 RMP. Systematic linear stability calculations are used to map out stability windows for the low-n kink-peeling modes, in terms of the ideal-wall location and variation of the edge safety factor q 95 with respect to the target design. The kink-peeling stability boundary is found to be generally sensitive to the q 95 variation, which has implications for achieving the quiescent H-mode regime in STEP. Full toroidal quasilinear initial-value simulations for these STEP plasmas find that generation of the edge-harmonic oscillations (EHOs) depends sensitively on the plasma scenario, the initial linear stability of the kink-peeling modes, the initial plasma toroidal flow and q 95 . In general, it is easier (more robust) to access the EHO-regime for two of the cases considered with smaller plasma volume and higher on-axis safety factor. Finally, quasilinear simulations find robust density pumpout due to applied RMPs in these STEP plasmas, but the effect on the plasma toroidal flow varies among different cases.

EHO↗