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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 289 records · Page 16
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2006

Implications of Responsive Space on the Flight Software Architecture

The Responsive Space initiative has several implications for flight software that need to be addressed not only within the run-time element, but the development infrastructure and software life-cycle process elements as well. The runtime element must at a minimum support Plug & Play, while the development and process elements need to incorporate methods to quickly generate the needed documentation, code, tests, and all of the artifacts required of flight quality software. Very rapid response times go even further, and imply little or no new software development, requiring instead, using only predeveloped and certified software modules that can be integrated and tested through automated methods. These elements have typically been addressed individually with significant benefits, but it is when they are combined that they can have the greatest impact to Responsive Space. The Flight Software Branch at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center has been developing the runtime, infrastructure and process elements needed for rapid integration with the Core Flight software System (CFS) architecture. The CFS architecture consists of three main components; the core Flight Executive (cFE), the component catalog, and the Integrated Development Environment (DE). This paper will discuss the design of the components, how they facilitate rapid integration, and lessons learned as the architecture is utilized for an upcoming spacecraft.

Wilmot, Jonathan↗
NASA NTRS2008

Orchestrator Telemetry Processing Pipeline

Orchestrator is a software application infrastructure for telemetry monitoring, logging, processing, and distribution. The architecture has been applied to support operations of a variety of planetary rovers. Built in Java with the Eclipse Rich Client Platform, Orchestrator can run on most commonly used operating systems. The pipeline supports configurable parallel processing that can significantly reduce the time needed to process a large volume of data products. Processors in the pipeline implement a simple Java interface and declare their required input from upstream processors. Orchestrator is programmatically constructed by specifying a list of Java processor classes that are initiated at runtime to form the pipeline. Input dependencies are checked at runtime. Fault tolerance can be configured to attempt continuation of processing in the event of an error or failed input dependency if possible, or to abort further processing when an error is detected. This innovation also provides support for Java Message Service broadcasts of telemetry objects to clients and provides a file system and relational database logging of telemetry. Orchestrator supports remote monitoring and control of the pipeline using browser-based JMX controls and provides several integration paths for pre-compiled legacy data processors. At the time of this reporting, the Orchestrator architecture has been used by four NASA customers to build telemetry pipelines to support field operations. Example applications include high-volume stereo image capture and processing, simultaneous data monitoring and logging from multiple vehicles. Example telemetry processors used in field test operations support include vehicle position, attitude, articulation, GPS location, power, and stereo images.

Powell, Mark↗
NASA NTRS2009

Massively Parallel Dantzig-Wolfe Decomposition Applied to Traffic Flow Scheduling

Optimal scheduling of air traffic over the entire National Airspace System is a computationally difficult task. To speed computation, Dantzig-Wolfe decomposition is applied to a known linear integer programming approach for assigning delays to flights. The optimization model is proven to have the block-angular structure necessary for Dantzig-Wolfe decomposition. The subproblems for this decomposition are solved in parallel via independent computation threads. Experimental evidence suggests that as the number of subproblems/threads increases (and their respective sizes decrease), the solution quality, convergence, and runtime improve. A demonstration of this is provided by using one flight per subproblem, which is the finest possible decomposition. This results in thousands of subproblems and associated computation threads. This massively parallel approach is compared to one with few threads and to standard (non-decomposed) approaches in terms of solution quality and runtime. Since this method generally provides a non-integral (relaxed) solution to the original optimization problem, two heuristics are developed to generate an integral solution. Dantzig-Wolfe followed by these heuristics can provide a near-optimal (sometimes optimal) solution to the original problem hundreds of times faster than standard (non-decomposed) approaches. In addition, when massive decomposition is employed, the solution is shown to be more likely integral, which obviates the need for an integerization step. These results indicate that nationwide, real-time, high fidelity, optimal traffic flow scheduling is achievable for (at least) 3 hour planning horizons.

Rios, Joseph Lucio↗
NASA NTRS2013

Scheduling Operations for Massive Heterogeneous Clusters

High-performance computing (HPC) programming has become increasingly difficult with the advent of hybrid supercomputers consisting of multicore CPUs and accelerator boards such as the GPU. Manual tuning of software to achieve high performance on this type of machine has been performed by programmers. This is needlessly difficult and prone to being invalidated by new hardware, new software, or changes in the underlying code. A system was developed for task-based representation of programs, which when coupled with a scheduler and runtime system, allows for many benefits, including higher performance and utilization of computational resources, easier programming and porting, and adaptations of code during runtime. The system consists of a method of representing computer algorithms as a series of data-dependent tasks. The series forms a graph, which can be scheduled for execution on many nodes of a supercomputer efficiently by a computer algorithm. The schedule is executed by a dispatch component, which is tailored to understand all of the hardware types that may be available within the system. The scheduler is informed by a cluster mapping tool, which generates a topology of available resources and their strengths and communication costs. Software is decoupled from its hardware, which aids in porting to future architectures. A computer algorithm schedules all operations, which for systems of high complexity (i.e., most NASA codes), cannot be performed optimally by a human. The system aids in reducing repetitive code, such as communication code, and aids in the reduction of redundant code across projects. It adds new features to code automatically, such as recovering from a lost node or the ability to modify the code while running. In this project, the innovators at the time of this reporting intend to develop two distinct technologies that build upon each other and both of which serve as building blocks for more efficient HPC usage. First is the scheduling and dynamic execution framework, and the second is scalable linear algebra libraries that are built directly on the former.

Humphrey, John↗
NASA NTRS2013

Aquarius' Object-Oriented, Plug and Play Component-Based Flight Software

The Aquarius mission involves a combined radiometer and radar instrument in low-Earth orbit, providing monthly global maps of Sea Surface Salinity. Operating successfully in orbit since June, 2011, the spacecraft bus was furnished by the Argentine space agency, Comision Nacional de Actividades Espaciales (CONAE). The instrument, built jointly by NASA's Caltech/JPL and Goddard Space Flight Center, has been successfully producing expectation-exceeding data since it was powered on in August of 2011. In addition to the radiometer and scatterometer, the instrument contains an command & data-handling subsystem with a computer and flight software (FSW) that is responsible for managing the instrument, its operation, and its data. Aquarius' FSW is conceived and architected as a Component-based system, in which the running software consists of a set of Components, each playing a distinctive role in the subsystem, instantiated and connected together at runtime. Component architectures feature a well-defined set of interfaces between the Components, visible and analyzable at the architectural level (see [1]). As we will describe, this kind of an architecture offers significant advantages over more traditional FSW architectures, which often feature a monolithic runtime structure. Component-based software is enabled by Object-Oriented (OO) techniques and languages, the use of which again is not typical in space mission FSW. We will argue in this paper that the use of OO design methods and tools (especially the Unified Modeling Language), as well as the judicious usage of C++, are very well suited to FSW applications, and we will present Aquarius FSW, describing our methods, processes, and design, as a successful case in point.

Component Architecture↗
NASA NTRS2015

R2U2: Monitoring and Diagnosis of Security Threats for Unmanned Aerial Systems

We present R2U2, a novel framework for runtime monitoring of security properties and diagnosing of security threats on-board Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS). R2U2, implemented in FPGA hardware, is a real-time, REALIZABLE, RESPONSIVE, UNOBTRUSIVE Unit for security threat detection. R2U2 is designed to continuously monitor inputs from the GPS and the ground control station, sensor readings, actuator outputs, and flight software status. By simultaneously monitoring and performing statistical reasoning, attack patterns and post-attack discrepancies in the UAS behavior can be detected. R2U2 uses runtime observer pairs for linear and metric temporal logics for property monitoring and Bayesian networks for diagnosis of security threats. We discuss the design and implementation that now enables R2U2 to handle security threats and present simulation results of several attack scenarios on the NASA DragonEye UAS.

Formal Methods↗
NASA NTRS2018

Improvements to Integrated Tradespace Analysis of Communications Architectures (ITACA) Network Loading Analysis Tool

NASA's SCENIC project aims to simplify and reduce the cost of space mission planning by replicating the analysis capabilities of commercially licensed software which are integrated with relevant analysis parameters specific to SCaN assets and SCaN supported user missions. SCENIC differs from current tools that perform similar analyses in that it 1) does not require any licensing fees, 2) will provide an all-in-one package for various analysis capabilities that normally requires add-ons or multiple tools to complete. As part of SCENIC's capabilities, the ITACA network loading analysis tool will be responsible for assessing the loading on a given network architecture and generating a network service schedule. ITACA will allow users to evaluate the quality of service of a given network architecture and determine whether or not the architecture will satisfy the mission's requirements. ITACA is currently under development, and the following improvements were made during the fall of 2017: optimization of runtime, augmentation of network asset pre-service configuration time, augmentation of Brent's method of root finding, augmentation of network asset FOV restrictions, augmentation of mission lifetimes, and the integration of a SCaN link budget calculation tool. The improvements resulted in (a) 25% reduction in runtime, (b) more accurate contact window predictions when compared to STK(Registered Trademark) contact window predictions, and (c) increased fidelity through the use of specific SCaN asset parameters.

analysis↗
NASA NTRS2018

Dynamic Power Convertor Development for Radioisotope Power Systems at NASA Glenn Research Center

The Thermal Energy Conversion Branch at NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) is supporting the development of high-efficiency power convertors for use in Radioisotope Power Systems (RPS). Significant progress was made towards such a system that utilized Stirling conversion during the 2001 to 2015 timeframe. Flight development of the Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG) was cancelled in 2013 by the Department of Energy (DOE) and NASA Headquarters primarily due to budget constraints, and the Advanced Stirling Convertor (ASC) technology contract was subsequently concluded in 2015. A new chapter of technology development has recently been initiated by the NASA RPS Program. This effort is considering all dynamic power convertor options, such as Stirling and Brayton cycles. Four convertor development contracts supporting this effort were awarded in 2017. The awarded contracts include two free-piston Stirling, one thermoacoustic Stirling, and one turbo-Brayton designs. The technology development contracts each consist of up to three phases: Design, Fabricate, and Test. As of May 2018, all contracts have completed the Design Phase, and each underwent a design review with an independent review board. Three of the contracts are planned to execute the Phase 2 option for fabrication. Convertors manifesting from these development efforts will then undergo independent validation and verification at NASA facilities, which will consist of convertor performance and RPS viability demonstrations. Example tests include launch vibration simulation, performance mapping over the environmental temperature range, and static acceleration exposure. In parallel with this renewed development effort, NASA GRC is still demonstrating free-piston Stirling convertor technology using assets from previous projects. The Stirling Research Laboratory (SRL) is still operating several convertors from previous development projects which have similarities and relevance to current contract designs. Four of which are flexure-bearing based, and another six are gas-bearing based. One of the flexure-bearing convertors has accumulated over 110,000 hours of operation, and holds the current record for maintenance-free heat-engine run-time. Another flexure-bearing convertor was recently manually shutdown after 105,620 hours of operation, then disassembled and inspected. This inspection produced a wealth of information about the effects of this amount of runtime on the technology's components. One of the engineering unit flexure-bearing convertors recently underwent launch simulation vibration test, a static acceleration exposure up to 20 g, and was then placed on extended operation. Amongst the gas-bearing convertors, the longest running unit has accumulated over 70,000 hours of operation. Four high-fidelity gas-bearing convertors from the ASRG project are still operating continuously, for which the longest runtime has reached 28,000 hours.

Oriti, Salvatore M.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Dynamic Power Convertor Development for Radioisotope Power Systems at NASA GRC

The Thermal Energy Conversion Branch at NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) is supporting the development of high-efficiency power convertors in support of Radioisotope Power System (RPS) development. Significant progress was made towards such a system that utilized Stirling conversion machines during the 2001 to 2015 timeframe. Flight development of the Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG) was cancelled in 2013 by the Department of Energy (DOE) and NASA Headquarters primarily due to budget constraints, and the Advanced Stirling Convertor (ASC) technology contract was subsequently concluded in 2015. A new chapter of technology development has recently been initiated by the NASA RPS Program. This new effort is considering all dynamic power convertor options, such as Stirling and Brayton cycles. Four convertor development contracts supporting this effort were awarded in 2017. The awarded contracts include two free-piston Stirling, one thermoacoustic Stirling, and one turbo-Brayton designs. The technology development contracts each consist of up to three phases: Design, Fabricate, and Test. As of May 2018, all contracts have completed the Design Phase, and each underwent a design review with an independent review board. Two of the contracts have been awarded the Phase 2 option for fabrication. Convertors manifesting from these development efforts will then undergo independent validation and verification at NASA facilities, which will consist of convertor performance and RPS viability demonstrations. Example tests include launch vibration simulation, performance mapping over the environmental temperature range, and static acceleration exposure. In parallel with this renewed development effort, NASA GRC is still demonstrating free-piston Stirling convertor technology using assets from previous projects. The Stirling Research Laboratory (SRL) is still operating 10 convertors from previous development projects. Four of which are flexure-bearing based, and the other six are gas-bearing based. One of the flexure-bearing convertors has accumulated over 110,000 hours of operation, and holds the current maintenance-free heat-engine run-time record. Another flexure-bearing convertor was recently manually shutdown after 105,620 hours of operation, then disassembled and inspected. This inspection produced a wealth of information about the effects of this amount of runtime on the technology's components. One of the engineering unit flexure-bearing convertors recently underwent launch simulation vibration test, a static acceleration exposure up to 20 g, and was then placed on extended operation. Amongst the gas-bearing convertors, the longest running unit has accumulated over 70,000 hours of operation. Four high-fidelity gas-bearing convertors from the ASRG project are still operating continuously, for which the longest runtime has reached 26,000 hours.

Oriti, Salvatore↗
NASA NTRS2019

Software and System Health Management with R2U2

R2U2 (Realizable, Responsive, Unobtrusive Unit) is a hardware-supported tool and framework for the real-time system and software health management of cyber-physical systems. R2U2 continuously monitors properties about safety, performance, and security of the vehicle and can perform diagnostic reasoning. Efficient observers for past-time and future-time Metric Temporal Logic, reasoners for Bayesian Networks, and model-based prognostics algorithms are major components of R2U2. Their combination makes it possible to design powerful models for system runtime monitoring, diagnostics, software health management, prognostics, and security monitoring. The R2U2 monitoring engine is designed for minimal runtime overhead and is available as Simulink block or as a software component for integration into the flight software stack, and enables R2U2 to monitor complex cyber-physical systems without any instrumentation of the flight software. In this presentation, we give an overview of R2U2 architecture and reasoning algorithms, present its features, and give a life demo of the tool.

Schumann, Johann↗
NASA NTRS2019

NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model ORDEM 3.1 - Software User Guide

This National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM) 3.1 Software User Guide accompanies delivery of the latest upgraded version of the model, ORDEM 3.1. The user guide also provides a top-level program description and a list of capabilities. It includes descriptions of runtime error and information codes, input/output file formats, runtimes for different orbit configurations, and how to use uncertainty files. ORDEM 3.1 supersedes the previous NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) models – ORDEM 3.0 (Stansbery, et al. 2014) and ORDEM2000 (Liou, et al. 2002). The availability of new sensor and in situ data, re-analysis of older data, and development of new analytical techniques has enabled the construction of this more comprehensive and sophisticated model. An upgraded graphical user interface (GUI) is integrated with the software. This upgraded GUI uses project-oriented organization and provides the user with graphical representations of numerous output data products. For example, these range from the conventional flux vs. average debris size (or altitude bin) for chosen analysis orbits (or views) to the more complex color-contoured, two-dimensional (2-D) directional flux diagrams in local spacecraft elevation and azimuth. The current model, ORDEM 3.1, supports spacecraft as well as telescope/radar project assessments. ORDEM 3.1 contains updated debris populations covering low Earth orbit (LEO, up to 2000 km altitude) to geosynchronous orbit (GEO, up to 40,000 km altitude) and can assess debris calculations up to year 2050, extending coverage past the previous limit of 2035 in ORDEM 3.0. Although populations differ from its predecessor, ORDEM 3.1 is functionally the same as ORDEM 3.0 and can support ORDEM 3.0 projects through backward compatibility.

Vavrin, Andrew B.↗
NASA NTRS2020

ATD-2 Benefits Mechanism

NASA has been developing and demonstrating a suite of decision support capabilities for integrated arrival, departure, and surface (IADS) operations in a metroplex environment. The effort is being made in three phases, under NASA’s Airspace Technology Demonstration 2 (ATD-2) sub-project, through a close partnership with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), air carriers, airport, and general aviation community. The Phase 1 Baseline IADS capabilities provide enhanced operational efficiency and predictability of flight operations through data exchange and integration, tactical surface metering, and automated coordination of release time of controlled flights for overhead stream insertion. The Phase 2 Fused IADS capabilities include the fusion of strategic and tactical surface metering, Atlanta Center airspace tactical scheduling, Electronic Flight Data (EFD) integration, Terminal Flight Data Manager (TFDM) Terminal Publication (TTP) prototype, and Mobile App for General Aviation (GA) community. In the Phase 2 field evaluation, strategic surface metering provides advance notice of metering and additional stability to the assigned gate holds. The users of the IADS system in Phases 1 and 2 include the personnel at Charlotte Douglas International Airport (CLT) air traffic control tower, American Airlines ramp tower, CLT terminal radar approach control (TRACON), and Washington and Atlanta Center. This document describes the ATD-2 benefits mechanism used to assess the Phases 1 and 2 IADS capabilities and field evaluation conducted at CLT since September 2017. The ATD-2 benefits mechanism mainly consists of surface metering and overhead stream insertion. This document provides detailed calculation methods of major benefit metrics, such as fuel savings, gas emissions savings, and engine runtime reduction, which can be obtained through surface metering, gate hold of Approval Request (APREQ) flights prior to pushback, and the renegotiation of release time while taxiing. As of March 31, 2020, it is estimated that 5,075,981 pounds of fuel savings and 15,634,022 pounds of CO2 emission reduction have been achieved so far, with a reduction of 3,832 hours in total engine runtime. The amount of CO2 savings is estimated to be equivalent to planting 116,254 urban trees. The pre- and post-metering comparison results using FAA’s Aviation System Performance Metrics (ASPM) data have also shown that the surface metering had no negative impact on the on-time arrival performance of both outbound and inbound flights at CLT.

ATD-2↗
NASA NTRS2020

ATD-2 Benefits Mechanism

NASA has been developing and demonstrating a suite of decision support capabilities for integrated arrival, departure, and surface (IADS) operations in a metroplex environment. The effort is being made in three phases, under NASA’s Airspace Technology Demonstration 2 (ATD-2) sub-project, through a close partnership with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), air carriers, airport, and general aviation community. The Phase 1 Baseline IADS capabilities provide enhanced operational efficiency and predictability of flight operations through data exchange and integration, tactical surface metering, and automated coordination of release time of controlled flights for overhead stream insertion. The Phase 2 Fused IADS capabilities include the fusion of strategic and tactical surface metering, Atlanta Center airspace tactical scheduling, Electronic Flight Data (EFD) integration, Terminal Flight Data Manager (TFDM) Terminal Publication (TTP) prototype, and Mobile App for General Aviation (GA) community. In the Phase 2 field evaluation, strategic surface metering provides advance notice of metering and additional stability to the assigned gate holds. The users of the IADS system in Phases 1 and 2 include the personnel at Charlotte Douglas International Airport (CLT) air traffic control tower, American Airlines ramp tower, CLT terminal radar approach control (TRACON), and Washington and Atlanta Center. This document describes the ATD-2 benefits mechanism used to assess the Phases 1 and 2 IADS capabilities and field evaluation conducted at CLT since September 2017. The ATD-2 benefits mechanism mainly consists of surface metering and overhead stream insertion. This document provides detailed calculation methods of major benefit metrics, such as fuel savings, gas emissions savings, and engine runtime reduction, which can be obtained through surface metering, gate hold of Approval Request (APREQ) flights prior to pushback, and the renegotiation of release time while taxiing. As of April 30, 2020, it is estimated that 5,097,173 pounds of fuel savings and 15,699,292 pounds of CO2 emission reduction have been achieved so far, with a reduction of 3,831 hours in total engine runtime. The amount of CO2 savings is estimated to be equivalent to planting 116,739 urban trees. The pre- and post-metering comparison results using FAA’s Aviation System Performance Metrics (ASPM) data have also shown that the surface metering had no negative impact on the on-time arrival performance of both outbound and inbound flights at CLT.

ATD-2↗
NASA NTRS2020

A Flight Rule Checker for the LADEE Lunar Spacecraft

As part of the design of a space mission, an important part is the design of so-called flight rules. Flight rules express constraints on various parts and processes of the mission, that if followed, will reduce the risk of failure. One such set of flight rules constrain the format of command sequences regularly (e.g. daily) sent to the spacecraft to con-trol its next near term behavior. We present a high-level view of the automated flight rule checker FRC for checking command sequences sent to NASA’s LADEE Lunar mission spacecraft, used throughout its entire mission. A command sequence is in this case essentially a program (a sequence of commands) with no loops or conditionals, and it can there-fore be verified with a trace analysis tool. FRC is implemented using the TraceContract runtime verification tool, an internal Scala DSL for checking event sequences against “formal specifications”. The paper illustrates this untraditional use of runtime verification in a real con-text, with strong demands on the expressiveness and flexibility of the specification language, illustrating the advantages of an internal DSL.

LADEE↗
NASA NTRS2018

Refining the Safety - Liveness Classification of Temporal Properties According to Monitorability

Runtime verification is the topic of analyzing execution traces using formal techniques. It includes monitoring the execution of a system against temporal properties, commonly to detect violations. Not every temporal property is fully monitorable however: in some cases, the correctness of the execution does not depend on any finite prefix. We study the connection between monitorability and Lamport’s classification of properties to safety and liveness and their dual classes.We refine the definition of monitorability and provide algorithms to check which verdicts can be expected, a priori and during runtime verification.

Peled, Doron↗
NASA NTRS2022

Predicting Unreinforced Fabric Mechanical Behavior with Recurrent Neural Networks

Unreinforced woven fabrics are widely employed in various high-performance applications, including parachute deployment systems, airbags, and ballistic armor. The analysis of such materials is inherently complex due to the multiscale structure of these materials, and the dependence of macroscale behavior on changes that occur at lower scales. Previously, NASA’s Multiscale Analysis Tool (NASMAT) showed its capability in predicting unreinforced fabric behavior at the macroscale by capturing finite rotations that occur at the mesoscale. Though effective, the tool can face high computational cost for large, complex problems, motivating the need for the development of a surrogate model that can capture the same behavior. A recurrent neural network (RNN) was developed and trained on virtual NASMAT data to mimic the physics-based solutions while improving the computational runtime. The architecture of the RNN to best simulate the fabric behavior was carefully crafted based on heuristic knowledge of predicting physics-based temporal data, manual hyperparameter case studies, and Hyperband optimization.. The resultant model was able to predict a variety of stress-strain curves for fabrics with different mesoscale geometries, and was further validated by comparing to experimental data for the K706 style Kevlar plain-weave fabric, demonstrating the ability of the model to effectively capture the geometric changes in the fabric without explicitly calculating them, as is done in NASMAT. Furthermore, the tool showed its ability to improve on the runtime by a factor of 10 for fabric solutions compared to the multiscale tool, which would further enable the simulation of complex loading scenarios on unreinforced fabrics.

Fabric↗
NASA NTRS2020

A Flight Rule Checker for the LADEE Lunar Spacecraft

As part of the design of a space mission, an important part is the design of so-called flight rules. Flight rules express constraints on various parts and processes of the mission, that if followed, will reduce the risk of failure. One such set of flight rules constrain the format of command sequences regularly (e.g. daily) sent to the spacecraft to con- trol its next near term behavior. We present a high-level view of the automated flight rule checker Frc for checking command sequences sent to NASA’s LADEE Lunar mission spacecraft, used throughout its entire mission. A command sequence is in this case essentially a program (a sequence of commands) with no loops or conditionals, and it can there- fore be verified with a trace analysis tool. Frc is implemented using the TraceContract runtime verification tool, an internal Scala DSL for checking event sequences against “formal specifications”. The paper illustrates this untraditional use of runtime verification in a real con- text, with strong demands on the expressiveness and flexibility of the specification language, illustrating the advantages of an internal DSL.

Kurklu, Elif↗
NASA NTRS2022

Estimating groundwater use and demand in arid Kenya through assimilation of satellite data and in-situ sensors with machine learning toward drought early action

Groundwater is an important source of water for people, livestock, and agriculture during drought in the Horn of Africa. In this work, areas of high groundwater use and demand in drought-prone Kenya were identified and forecasted prior to the dry season. Estimates of groundwater use were extended from a sentinel network of 69 in-situ sensored mechanical boreholes to the region with satellite data and a machine learning model. The sensors contributed 756 site-month observations from June 2017 to September 2021 for model building and validation at a density of approximately one sensor per 3700 sq.km. An ensemble of 19 parameterized algorithms was informed by features including satellite-derived precipitation, surface water availability, vegetation indices, hydrologic land surface modeling, and site characteristics to dichotomize high groundwater pump utilization. Three operational definitions of high demand on groundwater infrastructure were considered: 1) mechanical runtime of pumps greater than a quarter of a day (6+ hr) and daily per capita volume extractions indicative of 2) domestic water needs (35+ L), and 3) intermediate needs including livestock (75+ L). Gridded interpolation of localized groundwater use and demand was provided from 2017 to 2020 and forecasted for the 2021 dry season, June–September 2021. Cross-validated skill for contemporary estimates of daily pump runtime and daily volume extraction to meet domestic and intermediate water needs was 68%, 69%, and 75%, respectively. Forecasts were externally validated with an accuracy of at least 56%, 70%, or 72% for each groundwater use definition. The groundwater maps are accessible to stakeholders including the Kenya National Drought Management Authority (NDMA) and the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET). These maps represent the first operational spatially-explicit sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) estimates of groundwater use and demand in the literature. Knowledge of historical and forecasted groundwater use is anticipated to improve decision-making and resource allocation for a range of early warning early action applications.

Katie Fankhauser↗