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DOE OSTI2025

WRPS Hanford Update [Slides]

The purpose of this report is to coordinate with the staff from WRPS, the current contract holder for operations at the Hanford site to better inform design decisions for the Autonomous systems for Hanford waste tank handling project. The project goals are to support risk reduction associated with monitoring, inspection and mapping of Hanford tank underground pits and includes: 1. A pit mock-up demonstration of Idaho National Laboratory’s (INL) Autonomous Pit Exploration System (APES) technology, which has two configurations: A. The Autonomous Robotic Arm, which is a proposed collaboration with Florida International University (FIU) and has capabilities to visually inspect, monitor, map and conduct simple tool manipulation tasks in the tank pits, and B. The robotic crawler configuration, which has capabilities to deploy to the bottom of the pits and conduct closer and bottom-up visual inspections. 2. An Implementation Plan that identifies Hanford site-wide application of the INL remote robotics technologies to enhance the performance of the tank farm systems and the characterization of the waste they contain to mitigate risk and optimize the overall waste mission. 3. A first-of-a-kind environmental digital twin will be produced. Digital twins to date require permanently installed sensors in order to produce asset specific predictions. This project will use the intermittent signals during inspections from deployed sensors on robotic systems to produce the data sets used by AI/ML to enable predictions of issues on tanks.

42 - ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS2002

Useful Life Prediction for Payload Carrier Hardware

The Space Shuttle has been identified for use through 2020. Payload carrier systems will be needed to support missions through the same time frame. To support the future decision making process with reliable systems, it is necessary to analyze design integrity, identify possible sources of undesirable risk and recognize required upgrades for carrier systems. This project analyzed the information available regarding the carriers and developed the probability of becoming obsolete under different scenarios. In addition, this project resulted in a plan for an improved information system that will improve monitoring and control of the various carriers. The information collected throughout this project is presented in this report as process flow, historical records, and statistical analysis.

Ben-Arieh, David↗

NASA NTRS2010

The Importance of Human Reliability Analysis in Human Space Flight: Understanding the Risks

HRA is a method used to describe, qualitatively and quantitatively, the occurrence of human failures in the operation of complex systems that affect availability and reliability. Modeling human actions with their corresponding failure in a PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment) provides a more complete picture of the risk and risk contributions. A high quality HRA can provide valuable information on potential areas for improvement, including training, procedural, equipment design and need for automation.

Hamlin, Teri L.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Probability of Loss of Crew Achievability Studies for NASA's Exploration Systems Development

Over the last few years, NASA has been evaluating various vehicle designs for multiple proposed design reference missions (DRM) beyond low Earth orbit in support of its Exploration Systems Development (ESD) programs. This paper addresses several of the proposed missions and the analysis techniques used to assess the key risk metric, probability of loss of crew (LOC). Probability of LOC is a metric used to assess the safety risk as well as a design requirement. These assessments or studies were categorized as LOC achievability studies to help inform NASA management as to what "ball park" estimates of probability of LOC could be achieved for each DRM and were eventually used to establish the corresponding LOC requirements. Given that details of the vehicles and mission are not well known at this time, the ground rules, assumptions, and consistency across the programs become the important basis of the assessments as well as for the decision makers to understand.

Boyer, Roger L.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Application of Margin-Based Methods to Assess System Health

Health management of complex systems such as nuclear power plants is an essential task to guarantee system reliability. This task can be greatly enhanced by constantly monitoring asset status and performances and process such data (through anomaly detection, diagnostic, and prognostic computational algorithms) to identify asset degradation trends and faulty states. While such information and data are typically available for many of the assets, they are not propagated from the asset to the system level in order to identify the most critical assets and prioritize maintenance and surveillance activities. The main reason is driven by the fact that current reliability modeling techniques are inadequate to process such information/data. This is due to the nature of these techniques which are based on the concept of failure rate/probability that do not serve an operational context where quantitative asset health information is available. Simply stated, current reliability techniques serve a run-to-failure operational setting and not a predictive maintenance one where the goal is to perform maintenance and surveillance activities only when they are needed based on asset health. The risk informed asset management (RIAM) project is focusing on the development of a different kind of reliability modeling techniques designed to adequately serve a predictive operational setting. Such reliability techniques move aways from a failure rate/probability to a margin-based mindset where margin is here used as a metric to quantify asset health based only on current and past operational experience of the asset under consideration. In addition, margin-based reliability techniques are able to propagate asset health information from the component to system level and provide importance measure to each asset. This report summarizes a recent activity performed in collaboration with plant modernization pathway designed to integrate monitoring data into margin-based reliability models. Such activity focuses on a specific system of an existing nuclear power plant where large amount of historic monitoring data is used to monitor asset and system health.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

The research challenges in security and safeguards for nuclear fission batteries

This paper discusses the nuclear security and safeguards research challenges presented by the development and deployment of nuclear fission batteries. These are defined as easily transportable and deployable nuclear systems which are designed to operate either unattended or autonomously. We start by defining the current landscape of domestic and international safeguards and security and discuss how it can be affected by the introduction these new nuclear systems. We then specifically discuss the technology gaps and technologies to be developed to facilitate their practical deployment. We find that, as expected, we can leverage conclusions from existing security and safeguards studies for small modular rectors and develop bespoke target set analyses to inform security postures based on probabilistic risk assessment. We find also that specific fission battery security economic analysis tools are needed and security by design must be applied early. However, the most important finding is that these new systems will require a new comprehensive set of cyber tools covering transportation, installation, operation, maintenance security of the fission battery systems. Altogether, we find that the development of the necessary security and safeguards requirements at the design phase of such a technology will be of great benefit in the smooth deployment of this modern nuclear energy system.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Cyber Risk Considerations for Nuclear Digital I&C Systems

Many engineers and scientists researching modeling and analysis methods for nuclear energy advancement are focused on proof-of-concept and early-stage development for new reactor designs. Since instrumentation and control (I&C) systems are traditionally developed later in the systems engineering lifecycle, researchers may be unfamiliar with modern digital technology used in these I&C systems. It is even more likely that they are unfamiliar with the cyber risks associated with them. This paper provides a brief overview of nuclear digital I&C systems before examining the importance of cyber risk management at nuclear reactors and the benefits of including Cyber-Informed Engineering throughout the systems engineering lifecycle. The primary goal is for engineers and scientists to develop a mindset that incorporates cybersecurity as another discipline alongside safety when designing and developing new technologies, regardless of technology readiness level.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA NTRS1995

A Fundamental Study of Smoldering with Emphasis on Experimental Design for Zero-G

A research program to study smoldering combustion with emphasis on the design of an experiment to be conducted in the space shuttle was conducted at the Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of California, Berkeley. The motivation of the research is the interest in smoldering both as a fundamental combustion problem and as a serious fire risk. Research conducted included theoretical and experimental studies that have brought considerable new information about smolder combustion, the effect that buoyancy has on the process, and specific information for the design of a space experiment. Experiments were conducted at normal gravity, in opposed and forward mode of propagation and in the upward and downward direction to determine the effect and range of influence of gravity on smolder. Experiments were also conducted in microgravity, in a drop tower and in parabolic aircraft flights, where the brief microgravity periods were used to analyze transient aspects of the problem. Significant progress was made on the study of one-dimensional smolder, particularly in the opposed-flow configuration. These studies provided enough information to design a small-scale space-based experiment that was successfully conducted in the Spacelab Glovebox in the June 1992 USML-1/STS-50 mission of the Space Shuttle Columbia.

Fernandez-Pello, Carlos↗

DOE OSTI2025

Draft Prototype Microreactor Transportation Safety Program

Microreactors are compact reactors capable of producing less than 50 megawatts of electrical energy. Typically, these reactors are factory-fabricated and designed to be easily transportable by truck, rail, vessel, or air. Microreactor designs often assume that the unit can be transported containing either unirradiated or irradiated fuel. The interest in microreactors is driven by several factors, including the need to generate power on at remote locations, at military installations, at facilities such as data centers, and in areas recovering from natural disasters. The U.S. Department of Defense is actively pursuing the microreactor concept to meet the increasing energy demands of military operations that require portable and dense power sources. Commercial vendors are also exploring microreactor concepts. The report Microreactor Transportation Emergency Planning Challenges (Maheras et al. 2024) outlined the emergency planning challenges associated with the transportation of microreactors by road, rail, and by barge/ship. The successful commercial deployment and redeployment of microreactors will also require the development of microreactor transportation safety programs. The elements in these safety programs are not specific to microreactors; however, the transport of microreactors may pose unique challenges in these areas. This report builds on the report Microreactor Transportation Emergency Planning Challenges (Maheras et al. 2024) and develops the elements of a prototype microreactor transportation safety program that describes the elements that should be contained vendor-developed microreactor transportation safety programs, identifying the unique elements associated with microreactor transport. This will provide vendors and their transportation contractors a basis for their transportation planning and will accelerate the commercial deployment and redeployment of microreactors by identifying those issues unique to microreactor transport. The emphasis of this report is on highway transport of microreactors. This is based on a U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission transportation package approval strategy of crawl-walk-run, where transport by highway is evaluated first (Coles et al. 2021, 2024, Maheras et al. 2021), then other surface modes (rail and barge/ship), and finally air transport. Evaluation of maritime transport of microreactors was recently initiated (Rigato et al. 2024, Maheras et al. 2025). The report first discusses microreactors in general and microreactor transportation safety program planning assumptions. The report then provides a description of the transportation safety planning process and provides an extensive discussion of the elements of transportation safety programs. Specific elements examined included transportation roles and responsibilities, transportation planning, transportation mode and route selection, carrier selection, transportation packaging, advance notification of shipments, public information and communications, emergency response plans and procedures, inspections, security, safe parking, shipment tracking, weather and road conditions, medical preparedness, training and exercises, and program evaluation. The report then identifies the unique elements of a transportation safety program associated with microreactor transport. These unique elements were in the areas of: the unusual nature of microreactor designs, compensatory measures, increased radiation dose rates in the vicinity of microreactors, transportation package approval versus 10 CFR 50.59, and the use of a risk-informed transportation package approval process.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA NTRS2007

Electronics for Low Temperature Space Exploration Missions

Exploration missions to outer planets and deep space require spacecraft, probes, and on-board data and communication systems to operate reliably and efficiently under severe harsh conditions. On-board electronics, in particular those in direct exposures to the space environment without any shielding or protection, will encounter extreme low temperature and thermal cycling in their service cycle in most of NASA s upcoming exploration missions. For example, Venus atmosphere, Jupiter atmosphere, Moon surface, Pluto orbiter, Mars, comets, Titan, Europa, and James Webb Space Telescope all involve low-temperature surroundings. Therefore, electronics for space exploration missions need to be designed for operation under such environmental conditions. There are ongoing efforts at the NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) to establish a database on the operation and reliability of electronic devices and circuits under extreme temperature operation for space applications. This work is being performed under the Extreme Temperature Electronics Program with collaboration and support of the NASA Electronic Parts and Packaging (NEPP) Program. The results of these investigations will be used to establish safe operating areas and to identify degradation and failure modes, and the information will be disseminated to mission planners and system designers for use as tools for proper part selection and in risk mitigation. An overview of this program along with experimental data will be presented.

Patterson, Richard L.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Vulnerabilities, Influences and Interaction Paths: Failure Data for Integrated System Risk Analysis

We describe graph-based analysis methods for identifying and analyzing cross-subsystem interaction risks from subsystem connectivity information. By discovering external and remote influences that would be otherwise unexpected, these methods can support better communication among subsystem designers at points of potential conflict and to support design of more dependable and diagnosable systems. These methods identify hazard causes that can impact vulnerable functions or entities if propagated across interaction paths from the hazard source to the vulnerable target. The analysis can also assess combined impacts of And-Or trees of disabling influences. The analysis can use ratings of hazards and vulnerabilities to calculate cumulative measures of the severity and importance. Identification of cross-subsystem hazard-vulnerability pairs and propagation paths across subsystems will increase coverage of hazard and risk analysis and can indicate risk control and protection strategies.

Malin, Jane T.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Evidence Report: Risk of Injury and Compromised Performance due to EVA Operations

During future missions to the Moon and Mars, each crewmember will most likely perform up to 24 hours a week of extravehicular activity (EVA) in support of exploration, science, construction, and maintenance tasks. Achieving mission objectives will require EVA systems and operations concepts that maximize human performance and efficiency while minimizing health and safety risks for crewmembers. Currently, over 450 EVAs have been performed in microgravity using the Extravehicular Mobility Unit (EMU). The EMU space suit has enabled the successful assembly and maintenance of the International Space Station (ISS) for over 20 years, as well as deployment of payload experiments, solar arrays, satellite launches and repairs. This EVA work was accomplished at a slower cadence than is expected for Moon and Mars, with ISS crewmembers performing no more than 7 EVAs during a single mission and without any back-to-back EVAs. Despite their success, ISS EVAs have resulted in more injury to EVA crewmembers than may be acceptable for long-duration exploration missions. The Apollo astronauts completed EVA tasks in suits that were designed for their short-duration lunar missions, although suit mobility problems were evident. The more frequent EVAs and more varied EVA tasks that are anticipated during the future longer-duration exploration missions will require EVA suits and systems that are better oriented to human health and performance than those used during the Apollo Program. Many of the problems that were encountered with the Apollo EVA suits (e.g., limited mobility and dexterity, high and aft center of gravity, and other features requiring significant crew compensation) will need to be corrected or mitigated to optimize EVA objectives of exploration missions. It is critical that we understand how EVA system design variables such as suit pressure, weight/mass, center-of-gravity location, joint ranges of motion, and biomedical monitoring, affects the ability of astronauts to perform safe, efficient, and effective EVAs. To achieve this understanding, EVA researchers will need to develop and execute an integrated human testing program across multiple environments. The research will provide objective data that will enable informed design decisions and crewmember standards, thereby ensuring EVA systems that optimize crewmember health, safety, efficiency, and performance. This report describes the risks to crew health, safety, performance, and efficiency caused by EVA operations, and it provides the evidence base to substantiate the importance of the risk.

EVA↗

DOE OSTI2024

Coupling of the Electricity and Transportation Sectors - Part II: Risk Assessment

This comprehensive report explores the intricate interplay through “sector coupling” between the Transportation Sector, Energy Sector, and the critical infrastructure challenges faced by the United States. Aligned with the ambitious federal goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, the report analyzes the present vulnerabilities in the fossil fuel supply chain, highlighting instances where the dependence on this industry has been susceptible to local and global disruptions. With a focus on risk assessment, this report establishes a framework to compare the fossil fuel-based transportation sector with the burgeoning electrified sector, considering the evolving technologies in electric vehicles (EVs) and the nascent charging infrastructure. This study delves into the historical reliability of fossil fuel-based transportation and identifies opportunities for strengthening sector coupling between transportation and the electric sector. Assessments of the gasoline-diesel supply chain provide insights into both opportunities and threats, offering a roadmap for creating a more reliable and resilient electrified transportation system. We modeled sectoral coupling scenarios for the current internal combustion engine (ICE)-based and future EV-dominant landscapes, leveraging qualitative sector attributes to identify relative strengths and weaknesses in Part 1 of the report. In this report (Part 2) we continue to understand the role of the electricity sector on transportation and develop a semi-quantitative methodology is employed to evaluate and compare the risks associated with the fossil fueled and electric transportation sector during emergency scenarios, drawing from real-world events like hurricanes and geopolitical disruptions. Different operational scenarios for the fossil fuel and electrified sectors have been developed to understand the risks associated with them. This report concludes with recommendations for the architectural designs of electric charging infrastructure, underlining the need for informed decisions in the transition towards a sustainable and resilient transportation future.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

NASA NTRS1992

NASA Specialized Center for Research and Training (NSCORT) in space environmental health

Activities of the Center for Space Environmental Health (CSEH), one of several NSCORTs supported by NASA in order to advance knowledge in environmental health in space habitats, are reviewed. Research in environmental health will define the standards or requirements needed to protect human health. This information will affect mission plans and the design of space habitats. This reseach will study unique contaminant stresses and lead to risk models for human health and performance.

Clarkson, Thomas W.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Real-Time Considerations for A Source-Time Dominant Auralization Scheme

A well-designed recording system can capture a moving source without risk of distortions, knowledge of the source or path, or transmission of information back to the source (i.e., a smartphone can reasonably record a plane flying overhead). This necessarily happens in real time. It would be good if signal processing schemes for auralization possessed these properties. Recent work on the NoTAP method of auralization proposed an asynchronous sample rate conversion scheme that keeps track of the (nonuniform) rate of incoming samples to formulate an effective incoming sampling frequency. This value allows the method to predict what frequency regions at the receiver are vulnerable to aliasing or imaging artifacts. Strategies of oversampling and filtering can be used to eliminate these problem regions while preserving as much of the original content as possible given the desired receiver sampling frequency. This approach creates a situation where the receiver processing can run independently of the source/path processing making it attractive for real-time implementation. This presentation discusses the challenges associated with producing a truly real-time scheme. A three-way tradeoff emerges between an interpolation mechanism that generates decorrelated noise, the computational burden, and the nearness to absolute real-time with which one wants the scheme to run.

Auralization↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Quantifying the Sensitivity of Condition Incidence Parameters in the Evidence Library

One approach to quantifying spaceflight risk at NASA makes use event driven probabilistic techniques. The Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT) is such a tool that estimates medical risk metrics via simulation and enables optimization of medical resources subject to mission constraints [1]. Previous analyses have informed medical set composition, exercise countermeasures, and water intake, where each analysis quantifies the risk associated with proposed variations in system design. As future mission profiles extend beyond Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) and lengthen in duration, understanding these risks and contributing factors is critical. MEDPRAT employs Monte Carlo sampling techniques to simulate missions and track the occurrence of medical events. These events follow fault-tree-like progressions through levels of severity and mitigation via medical treatment to many possible outcomes and these are reported throughout the mission. Making this possible, are the medical databases that contain evidence gathered by the Human Research Program (HRP). Quantifying the impact of uncertainty or variability in the input data is an important step in evaluating the credibility of modeling and simulation results. In this work, we investigate the sensitivity of medical risk metrics with respect to the condition incidence parameters within the Evidence Library (EL) [2] as the medical database input for MEDPRAT. The medical conditions, contained in the EL, are equipped with incidence rates that describe the likelihood that the condition will occur. These incidence rates reflect historical spaceflight data or when appropriate, terrestrial data. In this presentation, we will explore how uncertainty in these rates propagate to the medical risk described by MEDPRAT. These results identify the conditions and parameters with the largest contribution to medical risks.

Ian Lim↗

NASA NTRS2010

The Role and Quality of Software Safety in the NASA Constellation Program

In this study, we examine software safety risk in the early design phase of the NASA Constellation spaceflight program. Obtaining an accurate, program-wide picture of software safety risk is difficult across multiple, independently-developing systems. We leverage one source of safety information, hazard analysis, to provide NASA quality assurance managers with information regarding the ongoing state of software safety across the program. The goal of this research is two-fold: 1) to quantify the relative importance of software with respect to system safety; and 2) to quantify the level of risk presented by software in the hazard analysis. We examined 154 hazard reports created during the preliminary design phase of three major flight hardware systems within the Constellation program. To quantify the importance of software, we collected metrics based on the number of software-related causes and controls of hazardous conditions. To quantify the level of risk presented by software, we created a metric scheme to measure the specificity of these software causes. We found that from 49-70% of hazardous conditions in the three systems could be caused by software or software was involved in the prevention of the hazardous condition. We also found that 12-17% of the 2013 hazard causes involved software, and that 23-29% of all causes had a software control. Furthermore, 10-12% of all controls were software-based. There is potential for inaccuracy in these counts, however, as software causes are not consistently scoped, and the presence of software in a cause or control is not always clear. The application of our software specificity metrics also identified risks in the hazard reporting process. In particular, we found a number of traceability risks in the hazard reports may impede verification of software and system safety.

Layman, Lucas↗

NASA NTRS2010

From Paper to Production: An Update on NASA's Upper Stage Engine for Exploration

The NASA/industry team responsible for developing the J-2X Upper Stage Engine for the Constellation Program's Ares I and Ares V launch vehicles has made significant progress toward moving the design from paper to production during the past year. The J-2X exemplifies the Constellation goal of using proven technology and experience from more than 50 years of United States spaceflight experience and seeking where possible to employ common hardware in the Ares I crew launch vehicle and the Ares V cargo launch vehicle. The J-2X will power the Ares I upper stage to place the Orion crew vehicle in orbit. For the Ares V, the J-2X will place the Earth departure stage (EDS) and lunar lander in orbit and later re-start to send the Orion and lander to the Moon. Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne (PWR) is under contract to develop and produce the engine, leveraging its flight-proven LH2/LOX, gas generator cycle J-2 and RS-68 engine capabilities, recent experience with the X-33 aerospike XRS-2200 engine, and development knowledge of the J-2S tap-off cycle engine. The J-2X employs a gas generator operating cycle designed to produce 294,000 pounds of thrust in primary operating mode for the Ares I and Ares V ascent phases. It also has a secondary mode, during which it operates at 80 percent thrust by altering its mixture ratio to perform the TLI burn for the Ares V lunar sortie and lunar cargo missions. The J-2X development philosophy is based on proven hardware, an aggressive development schedule, and early risk reduction. NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) and PWR began development of the J-2X in June 2006. The government/industry team of more than 600 people within NASA and PWR successfully completed the Critical Design Review (CDR) in November 2008, following extensive risk mitigation testing. The team is working toward a first flight of the J-2X on the Orion 1 mission in 2014. This paper will discuss the J-2X development background and provide top-level information on design and testing to date. Details will be provided on overcoming challenges such as gas generator instability, turbine blade life, and nozzle extension selection and materials.

Kynard, Mike↗