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At least 289 records · Page 16

Assessment of Enhanced Oil Recovery Using Carbon Dioxide in Michigan Basin Silurian Pinnacle Reefs

The Midwest Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (MRCSP) has incorporated the work of geologic research teams (Geoteams) in its regional characterization, project planning and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) injection implementation work since the partnership was established by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in 2003. Over this 16-year period, the cohort of Geoteams has grown from five to ten states and has contributed to the characterization of geologic sequestration opportunities, refinement of reservoir and seal data, and supported injection efforts through both predictive and post-injection assessments. The Michigan team at Western Michigan University has provided technical analysis and support of the enhanced oil recovery (EOR) using carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) in the Northern Michigan Silurian Pinnacle reefs. With Core Energy, LLC as the industry partner, this project has assessed the potential for EOR in known fields in the Michigan Pinnacle reefs and the capacity for CO2 storage in the reef reservoirs as they are depleted and after reservoir abandonment. This project managed by Core Energy, LLC, involves the only commercial CO 2 Enhanced Oil Recovery floods within the MRCSP region. The Silurian pinnacle reef trend shows significant potential for CO 2 -EOR: this play is relatively new, with approximately 60% of the wells in the largest Niagaran fields still accessible. Most wells have modern logs and there are many cores, core analyses, pressure tests and produced water analyses available for study from these fields. These carbonate reservoirs in Michigan have produced sufficient oil to warrant evaluation for additional recovery efforts. The role of the Michigan team was to collect and analyze all relevant data about reservoir properties, including lithologic and depositional characteristics of the reservoir formations and porosity and fluid flow properties through different compartments in the reservoir. The team has also developed models that represent the geological and physical characteristics of the reservoir and seal system.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

The Volatile Fraction of Comets as Quantified at Infrared Wavelengths - An Emerging Taxonomy and Implications for Natal Heritage

It is relatively easy to identify the reservoir from which a given comet was ejected. But dynamical models demonstrate that the main cometary reservoirs (Kuiper Belt, Oort Cloud) each contain icy bodies that formed in a range of environments in the protoplanetary disk, and the Oort Cloud may even contain bodies that formed in disks of sibling stars in the Sun s birth cluster. The cometary nucleus contains clues to the formative region(s) of its individual components. The composition of ices and rocky grains reflect a range of processes experienced by material while on the journey from the natal interstellar cloud core to the cometary nucleus. For that reason, emphasis is placed on classifying comets according to their native ices and dust (rather than orbital dynamics). Mumma & Charnley [1] reviewed the current status of taxonomies for comets and relation to their natal heritage.

Mumma, M. J.↗

Reservoirs Modify River Thermal Regime Sensitivity to Climate Change: A Case Study in the Southeastern United States

Seasonal thermal stratification in reservoirs changes the thermal regime of regulated river systems as well as stream temperature responses to climate change. Cold releases from reservoir hypolimnion can depress downstream river temperature during warm seasons. Recent large-scale climate change studies on stream temperature have largely ignored reservoir thermal stratification. In this study, we used established models to develop a framework which considers water demand and reservoir regulation with thermal stratification, and applied this model framework to the southeastern US. About half of all 271 reservoirs in our study area retain strong thermal stratification by the 2080s (2070-2099) under RCP8.5 even as median residence times decrease to 60 days from 69 days in the historic period (1979-2010). Reservoir impacts on downstream temperatures become slightly weaker in the future because of higher air temperature and stronger solar radiation. We defined a “cooling potential” to quantify the thermal energy that a water body can absorb before exceeding a water temperature threshold. In the future, higher river temperatures will reduce the cooling potential for all river segments, but more so for river segments minimally impacted by thermal stratification. Reservoir impacts on cooling potential remain strong for river segments downstream of reservoirs with strong thermal stratification. We conducted a sensitivity analysis to evaluate the robustness of our findings to errors in the hydrological simulations. While river segments subject to reservoir regulation are more sensitive to errors in hydrology than those without regulation impacts, our overall findings do not materially change due to these errors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Predicting Critical Transitions in Multiscale Data

Predicting the dynamics of complex nonlinear systems remains a challenging problem both in dynamical systems theory as well as real world science and engineering applications. Data-driven methods utilizing the latest advances in machine learning (ML) provide a promising new paradigm for this task. Our work centered on Reservoir Computing (RC), which has shown itself to be capable of skillfully predicting chaotic dynamics in multiscale systems. In the first part of the work, the focus is on how to improve predictions of critical transitions in a class of slow-fast metastable systems in which the equations are known. An additional goal was to determine whether a relationship exists between RC and Koopman operator theory, to improve the efficiency and broaden the applicability of the approach. In the second part of this work, a variation on the RC model known as Reconstructive Reservoir Computing (RRC) is applied to real-world data to identify anomalies.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Supplementary Data for "Evaluation of the Economic Implications of Varied Pressure Drawdown Strategies Generated Using a Real-time, Rapid Predictive, Multi-fidelity Model for Unconventional Oil and Gas Wells" by Bello, K., Vikara, D., Sheriff, A., Viswanathan, H., Carr, T., Sweeney, M., O'Malley, D., Marquis, M., Vactor, R.T., and Cunha, L.

The Bello et al. study evaluates the impact of contrasting pressure drawdown on gas productivity and the resulting economics of a well in the Marcellus Shale of the Appalachian Basin. This research applies a techno-economic analysis approach to help identify potential ways pressure management strategies can be used to improve cumulative recovery of hydraulically fractured horizontal wells while maintaining project profitability. Gas production forecast outlook scenarios of the Marcellus Shale Energy and Environment Laboratory Laboratory's MIP-3H well were generated under varying pressure drawdowns using two approaches: 1) a novel physics-informed machine learning (PIML) workflow and 2) via traditional reservoir simulation in Computer Modeling Group’s (CMG) GEM Compositional & Unconventional Simulator. Cash flow and other economic metrics of interest were compiled on the production outlook using the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) Unconventional Shale Well Economic Model (UShWEM).The sheets within this Microsoft ExcelTM workbook provide the economic metric outputs for the baseline condition and the one-at-a-time (OAT) sensitivity analysis of UShWEM's input parameters for each of the production scenarios evaluated.

Fracture Network Model↗

Hydraulic fracturing to enhance injectivity and storage capacity of CO 2 storage reservoirs: Benefits and risks

Several potential CO 2 storage reservoirs have been found to have insufficient porosity and permeability to support cost effective commercial-scale injection. As a result, the use of hydraulic fracturing to enhance injectivity and storage capacity of CO 2 storage reservoirs was explored. Previous modeling studies indicate that fracturing can increase storage capacity by modest to significant amounts (10%–35%), depending on model assumptions. Simulations completed as part of this study confirm that for a range of horizontal well lengths, number of fractures, fracture geometries, and fracture properties, injectivity is improved and capacity increases by 13%–71% over the base case unfractured vertical well. Intuitively, increasing the well length and number of fractures had a corresponding impact on increased capacity. Here, fracture area (i.e., the fracture height multiplied by its width) was an important parameter for increasing capacity but the specific geometry (e.g., the ratio of height-to-width) was unimportant. The most important aspect that affected capacity was the ability of a fracture to connect high permeability horizontal zones in the reservoir. This would allow a single well to access both layers, thereby maximizing total storage capacity of the reservoir while likely leading to an overall increase of the CO 2 footprint, which is an important consideration for Class VI UIC permitting. The results of this work demonstrate that hydraulic fracturing is an attractive option to consider when faced with an underperforming geologic carbon storage site that is at risk of causing a project to fail.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Satellite-Based Tracking of Reservoir Operations for Flood Management During the 2018 Extreme Weather Event in Kerala, India

Uncoordinated management of hydropower dams during extreme and unexpected precipitation events in mountainous terrain can have disastrous consequences due to the competing nature of flood control and hydropower generation. Numerous cases of flooding events that have been exacerbated due to insufficient storage conditions in hydropower dams have been reported worldwide. There is a need for a scalable and publicly accessible monitoring framework that is capable of providing reliable, near-real time, and transparent reservoir operations data. A fully satellite-based framework is the most viable solution to build such capability. The Reservoir Assessment Tool (RAT 3.0), which utilizes high frequency remote sensing-based surface area and reservoir storage estimation alongside hydrological modelled inflow was applied here for the 2018 Kerala floods in India as a globally representative case for a mountainous river basin with high precipitation and hydropower dams. Application of satellite-based RAT 3.0 in monitoring the state of 19 reservoirs in Kerala during the flood event showed very promising results. In general, RAT 3.0, using satellite remote sensing, was found to be able to capture the temporal trend of the reservoir storage and pinpoint the sudden shift in filling or release decisions made by the dam operator. Inflow modelling in such regions was found to require careful calibration with identification of reservoirs that are heavily regulated being a critical aspect. The perennial high cloud cover in such regions necessitate and highlights the central role played by microwave and radar-based satellite sensors, such as the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission, in tracking reservoir state. An operational version of RAT 3.0 for stakeholder agencies tailored for hydropower dams operating in high precipitation and mountainous environments is a real-world outcome of this study.

Sarath Suresh↗

NRAP-Open-IAM: Open Wellbore Component (V.2.0)

The Open Wellbore component of NRAP-Open-IAM is applicable to the calculation of Area of Review at a carbon storage site and fast estimation of dense gas dispersion from multiple continuous CO 2 surface leakage sources for risk assessment. The Open Wellbore Component of NRAP-Open-IAM is a lookup table model based on the drift-flux approach. The National Research Assessment Partnership’s second-generation integrated assessment model, NRAP-Open-IAM, is open-source software written in Python for use in performance and quantitative risk assessment of geologic carbon storage (GCS) systems. The look-up table for open well leakage is an updated version the previous model which provides finer resolution of reservoir depth and more accurate fluid properties than the previous open well look-up table, especially in calculating the gas (CO 2 -rich) phase properties. The component model input parameters include the reservoir transmissivity, aquifer transmissivity, brine salinity, well radius, and well top and bottom depths. The reservoir transmissivity and brine salinity were set to values consistent with the reservoir component, and the well top and bottom depths varied with location. The possible outputs from the Open Wellbore component are leakage rates of CO 2 and brine to either an aquifer or atmosphere, depending on the depth of the well top. Several python test scripts are presented that demonstrate that the Open Wellbore component works correctly. Use of the open wellbore model in NRAP-Open-IAM may result in a large CO 2 leakage rates, comparable to the leakage rates of CO 2 blow out.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of the economic implications of varied pressure drawdown strategies generated using a real-time, rapid predictive, multi-fidelity model for unconventional oil and gas wells

Experience has suggested that pressure maintenance in hydraulically fractured reservoirs via lower, more sustained production drawdowns may offer improved cumulative recovery and overall resource extraction efficiency compared to more rapid drawdown approaches aimed at generating high initial production. However, given the inherent variability of oil and natural gas markets, operators pursue production strategies that maximize profitability over resource extraction efficiency. This study focuses on evaluating the implications of contrasting pressure drawdown strategies on the long-term production and resulting economics for a real, producing unconventional gas well in the Marcellus Shale of the Appalachian Basin using a techno-economic analysis approach. Our research combines elements of well-specific horizontal well design, production forecasting, equipment sizing and capital cost estimation, operating cost estimation, and revenue and tax calculations. Gas production forecast outlook scenarios were generated under varying pressure drawdowns using two approaches: 1) a novel physics-informed machine learning workflow and 2) traditional reservoir simulation. A discounted cash flow model was used to evaluate the resulting economic implications for each drawdown scenario—generating output for exploring the coupled effect of factors like the timing and volume of gas production, prevailing economic and market conditions for natural gas, and overall estimated ultimate recovery on profitability metrics such as internal rate of return and net present value. Results show that there is potential to maximize the cumulative gas produced in the specific case study well by employing a lower pressure drawdown. Conversely, the greatest profitability is achieved using rapid drawdown as signified by a small, specific subset of our outlook scenarios. On an averaging basis, we find that the combinations of highest cumulative producing and most profitable scenarios occur under lower drawdowns with long (>40 years) producing timeframes, but require higher relative gas price and lower discounting considerations. Further, the machine learning predictive outlooking capability proved effective for enabling rapid generation of a multitude of scenario forecasts. As a result, a variety of prominent example cases could be generated to strike the balance of greater productivity and economic return given their associated producing features and economic conditions when compared to similar producing scenarios—critical insight that offers improved decision support for unconventional oil and gas operations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Improving Subsurface Stress Characterization for Carbon Dioxide Storage Projects

Researchers at New Mexico Tech, Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Sandia National Laboratory (SNL), and other collaborators are developing a methodology to improve characterization of stress in the subsurface by means of a model-based inversion of reservoir engineering data, time lapse seismic measurements, and microseismicity. Historically, various geophysical techniques have been used in efforts to understand the state of stress in the subsurface through direct and indirect imaging of stress sensitive features (faults and fractures) and observations of transient stress related observations (time variant elastic moduli and microseismicity). Standard direct and indirect techniques for seismic fault and fracture imaging suffer from detectability limits due to reliance on high data quality and multiplicity. Variations in effective elastic properties from inversion of high quality seismic (Vertical Seismic Profile (VSP)) data may be used to infer stress near the wellbore through integration with independent experimental characterization of the stress-velocity relationship. Given a sufficiently robust observation network, microseismic emissions may be inverted to characterize focal mechanisms which, together with supporting assumptions and constraints, inform estimates of in-situ stress. While each of these techniques contributes in part to the characterization of stress within limited spatial and temporal domains, no one method provides an unambiguous stress measurement or a predictive capability over a site scale spatial extent. Challenges associated with solution non-uniqueness, measurement ambiguity, and irregular sampling may be greatly minimized through combination of one or more of independent measurements within a common framework in which realistic geological, hydrodynamic, geomechanical, and seismological constituent process models may act as constraints.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Impact of Rock Wettability and Mineralization on CO 2 Storage Efficiency in Basalt Reservoirs

Basalt formations have emerged as highly promising targets for geological CO 2 storage due to their abundance of reactive silicate minerals that can rapidly convert dissolved CO 2 into stable carbonate minerals. The efficiency of CO 2 trapping in basalts, however, depends not only on their geochemical reactivity but also on reservoir wettability, which governs how CO 2 partitions among structural, residual, solubility, and mineral trapping mechanisms. However, wettability and mineral kinetics have largely been examined separately, wettability for plume migration and kinetics in terms of mineralization, leaving their coupled impact unquantified. Here, we systematically integrate th ese processes in a reservoir-scale reactive transport model to quantify the impact of three distinct wettability conditions (water-wet, mixed-wet, and CO 2 -wet) on plume migration, mineral precipitation, pore-scale blockage, and long-term immobilization. Results show that under ideal conditions (no mineralization), water-wet systems exhibited plume aspect ratios up to 28% higher than CO 2 -wet systems and promoted at least 60% greater residual trapping. When mineralization was incorporated, mineral trapping accounted for 57%, 53%, and 46% of the total immobilized CO 2 in water-wet, mixed-wet, and CO 2 -wet systems, respectively. Dissolved CO 2 contributed 43-46%, while residual trapping remained below 5%, and mobile CO 2 was substantially reduced due to mineralization, demonstrating that as the system becomes more water-wet, CO 2 is more effectively converted into stable carbonate minerals, although extensive mineral precipitation may lead to pore clogging. A global Sobol-Morris sensitivity analysis further reveals that the kinetic parameters of reactive minerals are the most influential factor, followed by wettability, while salinity has only a minor influence. Furthermore, these findings highlight that wettability is not merely a flow property but a fundamental control on CO 2 mineralization in basalts, with direct implications for site selection for storage projects.

Basalts↗

Downwind dispersion of CO 2 from a major subsea blowout in shallow offshore waters

Growing interest in offshore geologic carbon sequestration (GCS) motivates risk assessment of large-scale subsea CO 2 well blowouts or pipeline ruptures. For major leaks of CO 2 from wells or pipelines, significant fluxes of CO 2 may occur from the sea surface depending on water depth. In the context of risk assessment of human health and safety, we have used previously simulated coupled well-reservoir and water column model results as a source term for dense gas dispersion of CO 2 above the sea surface. The models are linked together by one-way coupling, that is, output of one model is used as input to the next model. These first-of-their-kind coupled flow results are applicable to assessing the hazard of CO 2 to people at and downwind of the sea surface location of emission. Hazard is quantified by plotting the downwind dispersion length (DDL), which we define in the study as the distances from the emission source to the point at which the emitted CO 2 has been diluted to 5% and 1.5% in air by volume. Here results suggest that large-scale blowouts in shallow water (10 m) may cause hazardous CO 2 plumes extending on the order of several hundred meters downwind. Details of the modeling show DDL has a maximum for windspeed (at an elevation of 10 m) of approximately 5 m/s, with smaller DDL for both weaker and stronger winds. This is explained by the fact that wind favors transport but also causes dispersion; therefore there is a certain wind speed that maximizes DDL.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Fluid-line math model

Simplified mathematical model simulates large hydraulic systems on either analog or digital computers. Models of pumps, servoactuators, reservoirs, accumulators, and valves are connected generating systems containing six hundred elements.

Kandelman, A.↗

Calibration of a turbidity meter for making estimates of total suspended solids concentrations and beam attenuation coefficients in field experiments

Management of water resources such as a reservoir requires using analytical models which describe such parameters as the suspended sediment field. To select or develop an appropriate model requires making many measurements to describe the distribution of this parameter in the water column. One potential method for making those measurements expeditiously is to measure light transmission or turbidity and relate that parameter to total suspended solids concentrations. An instrument which may be used for this purpose was calibrated by generating curves of transmission measurements plotted against measured values of total suspended solids concentrations and beam attenuation coefficients. Results of these experiments indicate that field measurements made with this instrument using curves generated in this study should correlate with total suspended solids concentrations and beam attenuation coefficients in the water column within 20 percent.

Usry, J. W.↗

Volatile reservoirs below the surface of the Elysium region of Mars: Geomorphic evidence

The Elysium volcanic province contains a variety of geomorphic evidence for the existence of large volatile reservoirs of subsurface volatiles. Study of these landforms yields insight into the distribution and size of these reservoirs and how they interact with the surface environment and will ultimately place constraints on the geometry, constitution, origin, time of formation, and temporal evolution of these important components of the Martian crust. Three principal types of landforms appear to be related to subsurface volatile reservoirs in the Elysium region of Mars: small outflow channels; large lahars; and vast expanses of knobby terranes around the margins of the Elysium dome. The evidence provided by these landforms is internally consistent with the presence of a large relatively shallow volatile reservoir in the Elysium region. If the geologic features described are reliable indicators of subsurface volatiles, they imply that: volatile reservoirs lie relatively close to the surface and underlie millions of sq km in this region; there is no apparent latitudinal variation in the depth or thickness of the volatile reservoirs; the precursors of the knobby terranes are or were important volatile reservoirs; volatiles may be lost in a variety of ways from these reservoirs; and volatiles were incorporated in an easily eroded surficial deposit in the middle history of Mars. The ultimate origin of water in this reservoir is uncertain. A model to explain the preferential entrapment of volatiles into the region's surface materials may be required.

Christiansen, Eric H.↗

Majorite-Garnet Partitioning of the Highly Siderophile Elements: New Results and Application to Mars

HSE and Os isotopes are used to constrain processes such as accretion, mantle evolution, crustal recycling, and core-mantle mixing, and to constrain the timing and depth of differentiation of Mars. Although showed that the HSE contents of the martian mantle could have been established by metal-silicate equilibrium in early Mars, the role of a cooling magma ocean and associated crystallization in further fractionating the HSEs is unclear. Garnet is thought to have played an important role in controlling trace element concentrations in the martian mantle reservoirs. However, testing these models, including Os isotopes, has been hindered by a dearth of partitioning data for the HSE in deep mantle phases - majorite, wadsleyite, ringwoodite, akimotoite - that may be present in the martian mantle. We examine the partitioning behavior of HSEs between majorite garnet (gt), olivine (oliv), and silicate liquid (melt).

Danielson, L. R.↗

A simple, mass balance model of carbon flow in a controlled ecological life support system

Internal cycling of chemical elements is a fundamental aspect of a Controlled Ecological Life Support System (CELSS). Mathematical models are useful tools for evaluating fluxes and reservoirs of elements associated with potential CELSS configurations. A simple mass balance model of carbon flow in CELSS was developed based on data from the CELSS Breadboard project at Kennedy Space Center. All carbon reservoirs and fluxes were calculated based on steady state conditions and modelled using linear, donor-controlled transfer coefficients. The linear expression of photosynthetic flux was replaced with Michaelis-Menten kinetics based on dynamical analysis of the model which found that the latter produced more adequate model output. Sensitivity analysis of the model indicated that accurate determination of the maximum rate of gross primary production is critical to the development of an accurate model of carbon flow. Atmospheric carbon dioxide was particularly sensitive to changes in photosynthetic rate. The small reservoir of CO2 relative to large CO2 fluxes increases the potential for volatility in CO2 concentration. Feedback control mechanisms regulating CO2 concentration will probably be necessary in a CELSS to reduce this system instability.

Garland, Jay L.↗

Testing and Modeling of Subscale Ice-on-Coil Module as Low Temperature Reservoir for sCO2 based Pumped Thermal Energy Storage Systems

Echogen tested approximately 10 kWthsubscale IOC system in their lab in Akron, OH for studying the feasibility, endurance and performance impact of the technology on PTES system. This paper discusses the test loop setup, testing and results from this sub-scale IOC testing. Along with testing, the project team also developed sub-scale IOC transient model. The paper discusses this transient model development and its validation against the test data.

Avadhanula, Vamshi Krishna [Echogen Power Systems ↗