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At least 289 records · Page 16

Benchmarking Near-Surface Winds in the HRRR Analyses Using Multisource Observations over Complex Terrain in the Southeastern United States

Wind energy plays a crucial role in sustainable power generation, yet its full potential in the southeast United States (SEUS) remains underexplored. This study advances wind resource assessment in the SEUS using existing regional modeling and multisource observations. We find that terrain complexity, influenced by orography and forest canopy, significantly impacts the accuracy of modeled wind speed. While the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model effectively simulates wind profiles over flat, nonforested terrain, larger errors are produced above forest canopies, and particularly for those stands in hilly and mountainous terrain where there are no observations aloft that could be used by HRRR’s data assimilation software. Seasonal variations, e.g., changes in the leaf area index, further complicate the relationship between terrain complexity and simulation errors. Here, our findings emphasize the critical need for comprehensive wind profile measurements, extending from below the canopy to height above the canopy and through the lower planetary boundary layer, to fully quantify model performance over and near forests, and for improving wind resource assessment, planning, and management. This study provides valuable insights not only for further model development but also for future field campaign deployment with the goal of further improving our understanding of wind resources in the region.

Complex terrain↗

Analysis of the Latitudinal Variability of Tropospheric Ozone in the Arctic Using the Large Number of Aircraft and Ozonesonde Observations in Early Summer 2008

The goals of the paper are to: (1) present tropospheric ozone (O3) climatologies in summer 2008 based on a large amount of measurements, during the International Polar Year when the Polar Study using Aircraft, Remote Sensing, Surface Measurements, and Models of Climate Chemistry, Aerosols, and Transport (POLARCAT) campaigns were conducted (2) investigate the processes that determine O3 concentrations in two different regions (Canada and Greenland) that were thoroughly studied using measurements from 3 aircraft and 7 ozonesonde stations. This paper provides an integrated analysis of these observations and the discussion of the latitudinal and vertical variability of tropospheric ozone north of 55oN during this period is performed using a regional model (WFR-Chem). Ozone, CO and potential vorticity (PV) distributions are extracted from the simulation at the measurement locations. The model is able to reproduce the O3 latitudinal and vertical variability but a negative O3 bias of 6-15 ppbv is found in the free troposphere over 4 km, especially over Canada. Ozone average concentrations are of the order of 65 ppbv at altitudes above 4 km both over Canada and Greenland, while they are less than 50 ppbv in the lower troposphere. The relative influence of stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) and of ozone production related to the local biomass burning (BB) emissions is discussed using differences between average values of O3, CO and PV for Southern and Northern Canada or Greenland and two vertical ranges in the troposphere: 0-4 km and 4-8 km. For Canada, the model CO distribution and the weak correlation ( 30) of O3 and PV suggests that stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) is not the major contribution to average tropospheric ozone at latitudes less than 70oN, due to the fact that local biomass burning (BB) emissions were significant during the 2008 summer period. Conversely over Greenland, significant STE is found according to the better O3 versus PV correlation ( 40) and the higher 75th PV percentile. A weak negative latitudinal summer ozone gradient -6 to -8 ppbv is found over Canada in the mid troposphere between 4 and 8 km. This is attributed to an efficient O3 photochemical production due to the BB emissions at latitudes less than 65oN, while STE contribution is more homogeneous in the latitude range 55oN to 70oN. A positive ozone latitudinal gradient of 12 ppbv is observed in the same altitude range over Greenland not because of an increasing latitudinal influence of STE, but because of different long range transport from multiple mid-latitude sources (North America, Europe and even Asia for latitudes higher than 77oN).

climatologies↗

A theoretical model for the cross spectra between pressure and temperature downstream of a combustor

A theoretical model developed to calculate pressure-temperature cross spectra, pressure spectra, temperature spectra and pressure cross spectra in a ducted combustion system is presented. The model assumes the presence of a fluctuating-volumetric-heat-release-rate disk source and takes into account the spatial distribution of the steady-state volumetric-heat flux. Using the model, pressure, velocity, and temperature perturbation relationships can be obtained. The theoretical results show that, at a given air mass flow rate, the calculated pressure-temperature cross spectra phase angle at the combustor exit depends on the model selected for the steady-state volumetric-heat flux in the combustor. Using measurements of the phase angle, an appropriate source region model was selected. The model calculations are compared with the data. The comparison shows good agreement and indicates that with the use of this model the pressure-temperature cross spectra measurements provide useful information on the physical mechanisms active at the combustion noise source.

Miles, J. H.↗

3D MHD Models of Active Region Loops

Present imaging and spectroscopic observations of active region loops allow to determine many physical parameters of the coronal loops, such as the density, temperature, velocity of flows in loops, and the magnetic field. However, due to projection effects many of these parameters remain ambiguous. Three dimensional imaging in EUV by the STEREO spacecraft will help to resolve the projection ambiguities, and the observations could be used to setup 3D MHD models of active region loops to study the dynamics and stability of active regions. Here the results of 3D MHD models of active region loops are presented, and the progress towards more realistic 3D MHD models of active regions. In particular the effects of impulsive events on the excitation of active region loop oscillations, and the generation, propagations and reflection of EIT waves are shown. It is shown how 3D MHD models together with 3D EUV observations can be used as a diagnostic tool for active region loop physical parameters, and to advance the science of the sources of solar coronal activity.

Ofman, Leon↗

SDSS-IV MaNGA: Understanding Ionized Gas Turbulence Using Integral Field Spectroscopy of 4500 Star-forming Disk Galaxies

The Sloan Digital Sky Survey MaNGA program has now obtained integral field spectroscopy for over 10,000 galaxies in the nearby universe. We use the final MaNGA data release DR17 to study the correlation between ionized gas velocity dispersion and galactic star formation rate, finding a tight correlation in which σ Hα from galactic H ιι regions increases significantly from ~18–30 km s –1 , broadly in keeping with previous studies. In contrast, σ Hα from diffuse ionized gas increases more rapidly from 20–60 km s –1 . Using the statistical power of MaNGA, we investigate these correlations in greater detail using multiple emission lines and determine that the observed correlation of σ Hα with local star formation rate surface density is driven primarily by the global relation of increasing velocity dispersion at higher total star formation rate, as are apparent correlations with stellar mass. Assuming H ιι region models consistent with our finding that σ [O III] < σ Hα < σ [O I] , we estimate the velocity dispersion of the molecular gas in which the individual H ιι regions are embedded, finding values σ Mol = 5–30 km s –1 consistent with ALMA observations in a similar mass range. Finally, we use variations in the relation with inclination and disk azimuthal angle to constrain the velocity dispersion ellipsoid of the ionized gas σ z /σ r = 0.84 ± 0.03 and σ Φ /σ r = 0.91 ± 0.03, similar to that of young stars in the Galactic disk. Our results are most consistent with the theoretical models in which turbulence in modern galactic disks is driven primarily by star formation feedback.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A Mathematical Model of Diffusion-Limited Gas Bubble Dynamics in Tissue with Varying Diffusion Region Thickness

A three-region mathematical model of gas bubble dynamics has been shown suitable for describing diffusion-limited dynamics of more than one bubble in a given volume of extravascular tissue. The model is based on the dynamics of gas exchange between a bubble and a well-stirred tissue region through an intervening unperfused diffusion region previously assumed to have constant thickness and uniform gas diffusivity. As a result, the gas content of the diffusion region remains constant as the volume of the region increases with bubble growth, causing dissolved gas in the region to violate Henry's law. Earlier work also neglected the relationship between the varying diffusion region volume and the fixed total tissue volume, because only cases in which the diffusion region volume is a small fraction of the overall tissue volume were considered. We herein extend the three-region model to correct these theoretical inconsistencies by allowing both the thickness and gas content of the diffusion region to vary during bubble evolution. A postulated difference in gas diffusivity between an infinitesimally thin layer at the bubble surface and the remainder of the diffusion region leads to variation in diffusion region gas content and thickness during bubble growth and resolution. This variable thickness, differential diffusivity (VTDD) model can yield bubble lifetimes considerably longer than those yielded by earlier three-region models for given model and decompression parameters, and meets a need for theoretically consistent but relatively simple bubble dynamics models for use in studies of decompression sickness (DCS) in human subjects, Keywords: decompression sickness, gas diffusion in tissue, diffusivity

Srinivasan, R. Srini↗

Validating regional differences in modelled satellite microwave signatures

A three-part microwave T(B) brightness temperature model was tested for applicability in regions of differing climatic and vegetation regime. Model parameters were limited to vegetation in the form of the normalized vegetation index (NDVI) and climatically modeled soil moisture. The T(B) model was calibrated for two climatically contrasting areas and subsequently validated on different test sites of similar climatic character. Vegetative characteristics in the form of the mean NDVI was used to partition and lump data from different test sites. Good agreement was realized between estimated T(B) and Nimbus-7 SMMR T(B) at the 6.6 GHz horizontal channel.

Owe, Manfred↗

A microwave scattering model for layered vegetation

A microwave scattering model was developed for layered vegetation based on an iterative solution of the radiative transfer equation up to the second order to account for multiple scattering within the canopy and between the ground and the canopy. The model is designed to operate over a wide frequency range for both deciduous and coniferous forest and to account for the branch size distribution, leaf orientation distribution, and branch orientation distribution for each size. The canopy is modeled as a two-layered medium above a rough interface. The upper layer is the crown containing leaves, stems, and branches. The lower layer is the trunk region modeled as randomly positioned cylinders with a preferred orientation distribution above an irregular soil surface. Comparisons of this model with measurements from deciduous and coniferous forests show good agreements at several frequencies for both like and cross polarizations. Major features of the model needed to realize the agreement include allowance for: (1) branch size distribution, (2) second-order effects, and (3) tree component models valid over a wide range of frequencies.

Karam, Mostafa A.↗

Diabatic forcing and initialization with assimilation of cloud and rain water in a forecast model: Methodology

The focus of this part of the investigation is to find one or more general modeling techniques that will help reduce the time taken by numerical forecast models to initiate or spin-up precipitation processes and enhance storm intensity. If the conventional data base could explain the atmospheric mesoscale flow in detail, then much of our problem would be eliminated. But the data base is primarily synoptic scale, requiring that a solution must be sought either in nonconventional data, in methods to initialize mesoscale circulations, or in ways of retaining between forecasts the model generated mesoscale dynamics and precipitation fields. All three methods are investigated. The initialization and assimilation of explicit cloud and rainwater quantities computed from conservation equations in a mesoscale regional model are examined. The physical processes include condensation, evaporation, autoconversion, accretion, and the removal of rainwater by fallout. The question of how to initialize the explicit liquid water calculations in numerical models and how to retain information about precipitation processes during the 4-D assimilation cycle are important issues that are addressed. The explicit cloud calculations were purposely kept simple so that different initialization techniques can be easily and economically tested. Precipitation spin-up processes associated with three different types of weather phenomena are examined. Our findings show that diabatic initialization, or diabatic initialization in combination with a new diabatic forcing procedure, work effectively to enhance the spin-up of precipitation in a mesoscale numerical weather prediction forecast. Also, the retention of cloud and rain water during the analysis phase of the 4-D data assimilation procedure is shown to be valuable. Without detailed observations, the vertical placement of the diabatic heating remains a critical problem.

Raymond, William H.↗

Cloud Modeling

Numerical cloud models have been developed and applied extensively to study cloud-scale and mesoscale processes during the past four decades. The distinctive aspect of these cloud models is their ability to treat explicitly (or resolve) cloud-scale dynamics. This requires the cloud models to be formulated from the non-hydrostatic equations of motion that explicitly include the vertical acceleration terms since the vertical and horizontal scales of convection are similar. Such models are also necessary in order to allow gravity waves, such as those triggered by clouds, to be resolved explicitly. In contrast, the hydrostatic approximation, usually applied in global or regional models, does allow the presence of gravity waves. In addition, the availability of exponentially increasing computer capabilities has resulted in time integrations increasing from hours to days, domain grids boxes (points) increasing from less than 2000 to more than 2,500,000 grid points with 500 to 1000 m resolution, and 3-D models becoming increasingly prevalent. The cloud resolving model is now at a stage where it can provide reasonably accurate statistical information of the sub-grid, cloud-resolving processes poorly parameterized in climate models and numerical prediction models.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

Exploring Standing and Reflected Slow-mode Waves in Flaring Coronal Loops: A Parametric Study Using 2.5D MHD Modeling

Abstract Recent observations of reflected propagating and standing slow-mode waves in hot flaring coronal loops have spurred our investigation into their underlying excitation and damping mechanisms. To understand these processes, we conduct 2.5D magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations using an arcade active region model that includes a hot and dense loop. Our simulations allow for in-depth parametric investigations complementing and expanding our previous 3D MHD modeling results. We excite these waves using a large-amplitude, flow pulse applied at one footpoint of the loop in two distinct models as motivated by observations from the Solar Dynamics Observatory/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (SDO/AIA). The first model (Model 1) incorporates classical compressive viscosity coefficient, while the second model (Model 2) adopts a 10-times enhanced viscosity coefficient. We obtain the following major results: (1) Our 2.5D MHD simulations reinforce previous conclusions derived from 1D and 3D MHD models that significantly enhanced viscosity is crucial for the rapid excitation of standing slow waves with damping times consistent with observations by Wang et al. (2015). (2)We uncover that nonlinearity in Model 1 delays the conversion of a reflected propagating wave into a standing wave. In contrast, Model 2 exhibits a much weak influence of nonlinearity on the excitation time of standing waves, thanks to the suppression of these effects by enhanced viscosity. (3) Our results reveal that the transverse temperature structure holds more influence on wave behavior than the density structure. In Model 1, increased loop temperature contrast significantly enhances wave trapping within the structure, mitigating the impact of temperature-dependent viscous damping. Conversely, in Model 2, the impact of temperature structure on wave behavior weakens in comparison to the effect of viscosity. (4) Model 1 displays evident nonlinear coupling to the fast and kink magnetoacoustic waves and pronounced wave leakage into the corona. Model 2 exhibits significantly weaker effects in this regard. Analyzing three observed wave events by SDO/AIA aligns with Model 2 predictions, providing further support for the substantial viscosity increase. Our 2.5D study unravels the complex interplay of wave-flow phenomena and nonlinear processes in coronal loops, extending our previous 1D modeling results to incorporate more realistic loop geometry. This provides insights into scenarios where 3D effects may be neglected, thereby enhancing our understanding of the intricate dynamics of the solar corona.

Tongjiang Wang↗

Observation and Modeling of the Solar Transition Region: A Quasi-Static Loops Model with Implications for Heating the Lower Transition Region - 1

We report on observations of the solar atmosphere in several extreme ultraviolet and far-ultraviolet bandpasses obtained by the Multi-Spectral Solar Telescope Array, a rocket borne spectroheliograph, on flights in 1987, 1991, and 1994, spanning the last solar maximum. Quiet sun emission observed in the 171 A - 175 A bandpass, which includes lines of 0Ov, O vi, Fe ix, and Fe x, has been analyzed to test models of the temperatures and geometries of the structures responsible for this emission. Analyses of intensity variations above the solar limb reveal scale heights consistent with a quiet sun plasma temperature of 500 000 K less than or equal to T(sub e) less than or equal to 800 000 K. Intensity modulations in the quiet sun are observed to occur on a scale comparable to the supergranular scale. The structures responsible for the quiet sun EUV emission are modeled as small quasi-static loops. We find that the emission predicted by loop models with maximum temperatures between 700 000 K and 900 000 K are consistent with our observations. We also present a preliminary comparison of the predictions of our models with observations of diagnostic spectral line ratios obtained from previous observers. We discuss the implications a distribution of loops of the type we model here would have for heating the lower transition region. Finally, in fight of the models we calculate here, we briefly review the current state of knowledge concerning the contributions thermal conduction from coronal (T(sub e) greater than or equal to 10(exp 6) K) and upper transition region (10(exp 5) K less than T(sub e) less than 10(esp 6) K) structures make to lower transition region emission. We argue that the evidence which has lead many authors to conclude that the interface of hotter and cooler plasmas makes a negligible contribution to lower transition region emission is much less compelling in light of recent observations and analyses. We further argue that it is the interface of chromospheric material with structures such as loops that have sub-coronal peak temperatures (i.e. less than 900 000 K) that makes the dominant contribution to lower transition region emission in the quiet sun.

Oluseyi, Hakeem M.↗

Land change, fire, and climate weaken carbon sink in the conterminous United States

The land carbon sink of the conterminous United States was evaluated using a bottom-up modeling framework and 30-meter land change data from 1985 to 2020. This cross-scale, cross-landscape, and cross-system approach tracked fractional land cover changes and applied regional model calibration. Results show average terrestrial and aquatic carbon sinks of +110 ± 37 and +19 ± 0.5 teragrams of carbon per year, respectively. The terrestrial carbon sink, showing no clear trend, peaked in the 1990s, with more years as a carbon source since 2000, contradicting recent national and global studies. Land change had the largest impact (−70 ± 5.5 teragrams of carbon per year), exceeding impacts of climate (−33 ± 48 teragrams of carbon per year), wildfire (−7.7 ± 2.4 teragrams of carbon per year), and erosion transport (−1.9 ± 0.13 teragrams of carbon per year). The positive CO 2 fertilization effect (+69 ± 12 teragrams of carbon per year) was insufficient to maintain the carbon sink strength. Our framework reveals key paths of carbon loss, with implications for carbon budget and energy policies in the United States and beyond.

Liu, Jinxun [US Geological Survey, Reston, VA (Uni↗

Simulation of Physics-Based 0-10Hz Strong Motion Using High Performance Computing Supporting Refinements to Regional Ground Motion Models for the Central Eastern US

In collaboration with the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) the LLNL has developed a computationally efficient simulation platform designed to perform physics-based ground motion simulations for crustal earthquakes in the Stable Continental Regions of Central and Eastern US (CEUS), using high-performance computing. The main objective of the earthquake simulations was to use synthetic ground motion to provide constrains to refinements of existing ergodic Ground Motion Models (GMMs), for large magnitude earthquakes and near-fault distances, for which these models are less reliable. Physics-based broadband (0-10Hz) ground motion simulations were used to estimate the near-fault ground motion amplitudes and within event and between-event variabilities associated with fault rupture characteristics. In our simulations we used a 3D regional velocity model that was based on Saikia’s 1D velocity model (1994). In simulations performed during the first stage of this project the Saikia’s velocity model demonstrated better performance in modelling high frequency regional wave propagation for the CEUS region recorded during the Mw5.0 November 7, 2016, Cushing Oklahoma (Taylor et al., 2017), and Mw5.8 September 3, 2016, Pawnee Oklahoma earthquakes. The proposed regional 3D model includes random perturbations to the 1D background model using the stochastic scheme of Pitarka and Mellors (2021). In addition, validation analysis of the rupture generator and regional wave propagation models, using comparisons with different GMMs for Mw6.5 and Mw7.0 scenario earthquakes in the CEUS region resulted in a very good match between the simulated and empirical ground motion models. For the purposes of seismic hazard assessment at the existing and planned nuclear power plants, NRC is interested in studies aimed at improving the current ground motion models (GMM) for both Stable Continental Regions (SCR) in the Central and Eastern US and Active Crustal Regions (ACR) in the Western US. Due to lack of recorded data, these improvements require synthetic data for short fault distances and large magnitude earthquakes for which the existing recorded data is not enough to uniquely constrain the GMMs. The need for simulations and strong motion data is especially critical for the CEUS region where we do not have recorded data from potentially large damaging earthquakes with moment magnitudes 6.0 and higher. In this the project, we focused on 10Hz simulations of Mw7.0 scenario earthquakes with strike slip and thrust faulting mechanisms. We used more than 50 Mw7.0 earthquake rupture scenarios to investigate the ground motion uncertainty due to unknown earthquake rupture parameters, in particular, the slip distribution, rupture velocity, and faulting mechanism, and their implication on ground motion amplification due to forward rupture directivity effects.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Lower solar chromosphere-corona transition region. II - Wave pressure effects for a specific form of the heating function

Lower transition region models with a balance between mechanical heating and radiative losses are expanded to include wave pressure effects. The models are used to study the simple damping length form of the heating function. The results are compared to the results obtained by Woods et al. (1990) for solutions in the lower transition region. The results suggest that a mixture of fast-mode and slow-mode waves may provide the appropriate heating mechanism in the lower transition region, with the decline in effective vertical wave speed caused by the refraction and eventual total reflection of the fast-mode wave resulting from the decreasing atmospheric density.

Woods, D. Tod↗

Atmospheric processing and aerosol aging responsible for observed increase in absorptivity of long-range-transported smoke over the southeast Atlantic

Biomass burning aerosol (BBA) from agricultural fires in southern Africa contributes about one-third of the global carbonaceous aerosol load. These particles have strong radiative effects in the southeast Atlantic (SEA), which depend in part on the radiative contrast between the aerosol layer in the free troposphere (FT) and the underlying cloud layer. However, there is large disagreement in model estimates of aerosol-driven climate forcing due to uncertainties in the vertical distribution, optical properties, and life cycle of these particles. This study applies a novel method combining remote sensing observations with regional model outputs to investigate the aging of the BBA and its impact on the optical properties during transatlantic transport from emission sources in Africa to the SEA. Results show distinct variations in extinction Ångström exponent (EAE) and single-scattering albedo (SSA) as aerosols age. Near the source, fresh aerosols are characterized by low mean SSA (0.84) and high EAE (1.85), indicating smaller, highly absorbing particles. By isolating marine contributions from the total column during BBA transport across the SEA, our analysis reveals an initial decrease in BBA absorptivity, with mean FT SSA of 0.87 after 6–7 d, followed by increased absorptivity with mean FT SSA of 0.84 after 10 d, suggesting enhanced absorption due to chemical aging. These findings indicate that BBA becomes more absorbing during extended transport across the SEA, with implications for reducing model uncertainties. Our remote-sensing-based results agree well with previous in situ studies and offer new insights into aerosol–radiation interactions and the energy balance over the SEA.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

3-D inelastic analysis methods for hot section components (base program)

A 3-D inelastic analysis methods program consists of a series of computer codes embodying a progression of mathematical models (mechanics of materials, special finite element, boundary element) for streamlined analysis of combustor liners, turbine blades, and turbine vanes. These models address the effects of high temperatures and thermal/mechanical loadings on the local (stress/strain) and global (dynamics, buckling) structural behavior of the three selected components. These models are used to solve 3-D inelastic problems using linear approximations in the sense that stresses/strains and temperatures in generic modeling regions are linear functions of the spatial coordinates, and solution increments for load, temperature and/or time are extrapolated linearly from previous information. Three linear formulation computer codes, referred to as MOMM (Mechanics of Materials Model), MHOST (MARC-Hot Section Technology), and BEST (Boundary Element Stress Technology), were developed and are described.

Wilson, R. B.↗