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Potential of VIIRS Time Series Data for Aiding the USDA Forest Service Early Warning System for Forest Health Threats: A Gypsy Moth Defoliation Case Study

This report details one of three experiments performed during FY 2007 for the NASA RPC (Rapid Prototyping Capability) at Stennis Space Center. This RPC experiment assesses the potential of VIIRS (Visible/Infrared Imager/Radiometer Suite) and MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) data for detecting and monitoring forest defoliation from the non-native Eurasian gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar). The intent of the RPC experiment was to assess the degree to which VIIRS data can provide forest disturbance monitoring information as an input to a forest threat EWS (Early Warning System) as compared to the level of information that can be obtained from MODIS data. The USDA Forest Service (USFS) plans to use MODIS products for generating broad-scaled, regional monitoring products as input to an EWS for forest health threat assessment. NASA SSC is helping the USFS to evaluate and integrate currently available satellite remote sensing technologies and data products for the EWS, including the use of MODIS products for regional monitoring of forest disturbance. Gypsy moth defoliation of the mid-Appalachian highland region was selected as a case study. Gypsy moth is one of eight major forest insect threats listed in the Healthy Forest Restoration Act (HFRA) of 2003; the gypsy moth threatens eastern U.S. hardwood forests, which are also a concern highlighted in the HFRA of 2003. This region was selected for the project because extensive gypsy moth defoliation occurred there over multiple years during the MODIS operational period. This RPC experiment is relevant to several nationally important mapping applications, including agricultural efficiency, coastal management, ecological forecasting, disaster management, and carbon management. In this experiment, MODIS data and VIIRS data simulated from MODIS were assessed for their ability to contribute broad, regional geospatial information on gypsy moth defoliation. Landsat and ASTER (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer) data were used to assess the quality of gypsy moth defoliation mapping products derived from MODIS data and from simulated VIIRS data. The project focused on use of data from MODIS Terra as opposed to MODIS Aqua mainly because only MODIS Terra data was collected during 2000 and 2001-years with comparatively high amounts of gypsy moth defoliation within the study area. The project assessed the quality of VIIRS data simulation products. Hyperion data was employed to assess the quality of MODIS-based VIIRS simulation datasets using image correlation analysis techniques. The ART (Application Research Toolbox) software was used for data simulation. Correlation analysis between MODIS-simulated VIIRS data and Hyperion-simulated VIIRS data for red, NIR (near-infrared), and NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) image data products collectively indicate that useful, effective VIIRS simulations can be produced using Hyperion and MODIS data sources. The r(exp 2) for red, NIR, and NDVI products were 0.56, 0.63, and 0.62, respectively, indicating a moderately high correlation between the 2 data sources. Temporal decorrelation from different data acquisition times and image misregistration may have lowered correlation results. The RPC experiment also generated MODIS-based time series data products using the TSPT (Time Series Product Tool) software. Time series of simulated VIIRS NDVI products were produced at approximately 400-meter resolution GSD (Ground Sampling Distance) at nadir for comparison to MODIS NDVI products at either 250- or 500-meter GSD. The project also computed MODIS (MOD02) NDMI (Normalized Difference Moisture Index) products at 500-meter GSD for comparison to NDVI-based products. For each year during 2000-2006, MODIS and VIIRS (simulated from MOD02) time series were computed during the peak gypsy moth defoliation time frame in the study area (approximately June 10 through July 27). Gypsy moth defoliation mapping products from simated VIIRS and MOD02 time series were produced using multiple methods, including image classification and change detection via image differencing. The latter enabled an automated defoliation detection product computed using percent change in maximum NDVI for a peak defoliation period during 2001 compared to maximum NDVI across the entire 2000-2006 time frame. Final gypsy moth defoliation mapping products were assessed for accuracy using randomly sampled locations found on available geospatial reference data (Landsat and ASTER data in conjunction with defoliation map data from the USFS). Extensive gypsy moth defoliation patches were evident on screen displays of multitemporal color composites derived from MODIS data and from simulated VIIRS vegetation index data. Such defoliation was particularly evident for 2001, although widespread denuded forests were also seen for 2000 and 2003. These visualizations were validated using aforementioned reference data. Defoliation patches were visible on displays of MODIS-based NDVI and NDMI data. The viewing of apparent defoliation patches on all of these products necessitated adoption of a specialized temporal data processing method (e.g., maximum NDVI during the peak defoliation time frame). The frequency of cloud cover necessitated this approach. Multitemporal simulated VIIRS and MODIS Terra data both produced effective general classifications of defoliated forest versus other land cover. For 2001, the MOD02-simulated VIIRS 400-meter NDVI classification produced a similar yet slightly lower overall accuracy (87.28 percent with 0.72 Kappa) than the MOD02 250-meter NDVI classification (88.44 percent with 0.75 Kappa). The MOD13 250-meter NDVI classification had a lower overall accuracy (79.13 percent) and a much lower Kappa (0.46). The report discusses accuracy assessment results in much more detail, comparing overall classification and individual class accuracy statistics for simulated VIIRS 400-meter NDVI, MOD02 250-meter NDVI, MOD02-500 meter NDVI, MOD13 250-meter NDVI, and MOD02 500-meter NDMI classifications. Automated defoliation detection products from simulated VIIRS and MOD02 data for 2001 also yielded similar, relatively high overall classification accuracy (85.55 percent for the VIIRS 400-meter NDVI versus 87.28 percent for the MOD02 250-meter NDVI). In contrast, the USFS aerial sketch map of gypsy moth defoliation showed a lower overall classification accuracy at 73.64 percent. The overall classification Kappa values were also similar for the VIIRS (approximately 0.67 Kappa) versus the MOD02 (approximately 0.72 Kappa) automated defoliation detection product, which were much higher than the values exhibited by the USFS sketch map product (overall Kappa of approximately 0.47). The report provides additional details on the accuracy of automated gypsy moth defoliation detection products compared with USFS sketch maps. The results suggest that VIIRS data can be effectively simulated from MODIS data and that VIIRS data will produce gypsy moth defoliation mapping products that are similar to MODIS-based products. The results of the RPC experiment indicate that VIIRS and MODIS data products have good potential for integration into the forest threat EWS. The accuracy assessment was performed only for 2001 because of time constraints and a relative scarcity of cloud-free Landsat and ASTER data for the peak defoliation period of the other years in the 2000-2006 time series. Additional work should be performed to assess the accuracy of gypsy moth defoliation detection products for additional years.The study area (mid-Appalachian highlands) and application (gypsy moth forest defoliation) are not necessarily representative of all forested regions and of all forest threat disturbance agents. Additional work should be performed on other inland and coastal regions as well as for other major forest threats.

Spruce, Joseph P.↗

Progress of a Cross-Correlation Based Optical Strain Measurement Technique for Detecting Radial Growth on a Rotating Disk

The Aeronautical Sciences Project under NASA's Fundamental Aeronautics Program is interested in the development of novel measurement technologies, such as optical surface measurements for the in situ health monitoring of critical constituents of the internal flow path. In situ health monitoring has the potential to detect flaws, i.e. cracks in key components, such as engine turbine disks, before the flaws lead to catastrophic failure. The present study, aims to further validate and develop an optical strain measurement technique to measure the radial growth and strain field of an already cracked disk, mimicking the geometry of a sub-scale turbine engine disk, under loaded conditions in the NASA Glenn Research Center's High Precision Rotordynamics Laboratory. The technique offers potential fault detection by imaging an applied high-contrast random speckle pattern under unloaded and loaded conditions with a CCD camera. Spinning the cracked disk at high speeds (loaded conditions) induces an external load, resulting in a radial growth of the disk of approximately 50.0-μm in the flawed region and hence, a localized strain field. When imaging the cracked disk under static conditions, the disk will be undistorted; however, during rotation the cracked region will grow radially, thus causing the applied particle pattern to be 'shifted'. The resulting particle displacements between the two images is measured using the two-dimensional cross-correlation algorithms implemented in standard Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) software to track the disk growth, which facilitates calculation of the localized strain field. A random particle distribution is adhered onto the surface of the cracked disk and two bench top experiments are carried out to evaluate the technique's ability to measure the induced particle displacements. The disk is shifted manually using a translation stage equipped with a fine micrometer and a hotplate is used to induce thermal growth of the disk, causing the particles to become shifted. For both experiments, reference and test images are acquired before and after the induced shifts, respectively, and then processed using PIV software. The controlled manual translation of the disk resulted in detection of the particle displacements accurate to ~1.75% of full scale and the thermal expansion experiment resulted in successful detection of the disk's thermal growth as compared to the calculated thermal expansion results. After validation of the technique through the induced shift experiments, the technique is implemented in the Rotordynamics Lab for preliminary assessment in a simulated engine environment. The discussion of the findings and plans for future work to improve upon the results are addressed in the paper.

rotordynamics↗

Low Cost Manufacturing Approach of High Temperature PMC Components

The overall objective is to develop a satisfactory sheet molding compound (SMC) of a high temperature polyimide, such as PMR-11-50, VCAP-75, or NB2-76, and to develop compression molding processing parameters for a random, chopped fiber, high temperature, sheet molding compound that will be more affordable than the traditional hand lay-up fabrication methods. Compression molding will reduce manufacturing costs of composites by: (1) minimizing the conventional machining required after fabrication due to the use of full 360 deg matched tooling, (2) reducing fabrication time by minimizing the intensive hand lay-up operations associated with individual ply fabrication techniques, such as ply orientation and ply count and (3) possibly reducing component mold time by advanced B-staging prior to molding. This program is an integral part of Allison's T406/AE engine family's growth plan, which will utilize technologies developed under NASA's Sub-sonic Transport (AST) programs, UHPTET initiatives, and internally through Allison's IR&D projects. Allison is aggressively pursuing this next generation of engines, with both commercial and military applications, by reducing the overall weight of the engine through the incorporation of advanced, lightweight, high temperature materials, such as polymer matrix composites. This infusion of new materials into the engine is also a major factor in reducing engine cost because it permits the use of physically smaller structural components to achieve the same thrust levels as the generation that it replaced. A lighter, more efficient propulsion system translates to a substantial cost and weight savings to an airframe's structure.

Kannmacher, Kevin↗

Quantifying Post-fire Vegetation Recovery on the Colorado Front Range

Forest composition and structure in the Colorado Front Range has been altered by changing wildfire regimes, particularly in response to increased fire severity. Subsequent reductions in post-fire tree regeneration can result in chronic impacts to ecological function and water quality. This project partnered with the U.S. Forest Service to estimate tree canopy recovery from 15 to 21 years after four Colorado Front Range fires that burned between 1996 and 2002— the Bobcat, Buffalo Creek, Hayman, and High Meadows fires—using Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+), and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI). First, we evaluated relationships between recovery metrics derived from spectral vegetation indices (i.e. post-fire vegetation, normalized burn ratio, percent unrecovered vegetation) and field-collected counts of post-fire tree seedling regeneration. Then, we used high-resolution imagery paired with Landsat timeseries spectral and geomorphometric data to map forest canopy cover 15-21 years post-fire. Finally, we assessed ecological drivers of recovery including topography, climate, soils, and fire severity using Random Forest. While we found that basic vegetation index metrics failed to distinguish field-measured tree regeneration, our data showed that both aspect and burn severity were important drivers of vegetation recovery. North-facing aspects tended to have higher pre-fire Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and thus higher burn severities. However, areas that burned at high severity experienced slower vegetation recovery, regardless of aspect suggesting that high severity fire can mute favorable site conditions on north-facing aspects (i.e. moister, more developed soils). While this work propels our understanding of variables that influence vegetative recovery, vegetation type, forest conversion, and watershed function, more work should focus on what vegetation indices identifying areas of recovery indicate across different forest types and burn severities.

NASA DEVELOP↗

Design and Analysis of Architectures for Structural Health Monitoring Systems

During the two-year project period, we have worked on several aspects of Health Usage and Monitoring Systems for structural health monitoring. In particular, we have made contributions in the following areas. 1. Reference HUMS architecture: We developed a high-level architecture for health monitoring and usage systems (HUMS). The proposed reference architecture is shown. It is compatible with the Generic Open Architecture (GOA) proposed as a standard for avionics systems. 2. HUMS kernel: One of the critical layers of HUMS reference architecture is the HUMS kernel. We developed a detailed design of a kernel to implement the high level architecture.3. Prototype implementation of HUMS kernel: We have implemented a preliminary version of the HUMS kernel on a Unix platform.We have implemented both a centralized system version and a distributed version. 4. SCRAMNet and HUMS: SCRAMNet (Shared Common Random Access Memory Network) is a system that is found to be suitable to implement HUMS. For this reason, we have conducted a simulation study to determine its stability in handling the input data rates in HUMS. 5. Architectural specification.

Mukkamala, Ravi↗

Evaluating Meteorological Dust Events and Machine-Learning Based Dust Identification in Geostationary Satellite Imagery

NASA scientists in the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT) developed a physically-based machine learning approach to identify dust in satellite imagery with a focus on night-time dust detection (Berndt et al. 201; DustTracker-AI). NASA/NOAA Geostationary Environmental Operational Satellite-16 (GOES-16) imagery was used for training and model inputs. The training, testing and validation data set consists of 28 events in the Southwest United States, capturing dust and null events in the region from 2018-2020.With 83 distinct images and millions of pixels a random forest model was trained and validated, correctly labeling 85% of dust pixels.For the first time, the model was run in near-real time production during the spring of 2022 and dust probability visualizations were made available to NOAA National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters to assess its utility for dust forecasting. Results indicated the model helped increase the confidence in the presence of dust and enabled dust tracking for a longer period of time into the night-time hours. Forecaster assessment and running the model in near real-time allowed for the team to determine the types of events missed, captured, and false alarms. To gain additional context on model performance,the SPoRT team sought to gather more detailed information on the training database(e.g., meteorological characteristics and drivers). The goal of this project was to identify the meteorological drivers for the dust events and create a database which synthesized information from observations, forecaster discussions, and analyses pertaining to the dust events to understand the types of events currently used to train the model. A more detailed meteorological synopsis was created for each dust event in the training, testing, and validation datasets. Following the completion of the database and documentation, the classification details revealed that 88% of the dust events were synoptically driven while mesoscale events were less prevalent in model datasets. Meteorological conditions found such as mixing layer depth and wind velocity had mean values of 645mb and 21kt respectively.With conditions of deep mixed layers and moderate to strong surface winds a mesoscale thunderstorm outflow event was considered and subsequently added to the model training data set to test the impact of additional mesoscale training data. The model was retrained and then qualitatively tested on a sample thunderstorm outflow case that the original model was unable to identify. Preliminary results showed potential that the addition of more mesoscale events included in the training data could help to better identify indistinct and localized dust events.

Connor Welch↗

Influence of microgravity on root-cap regeneration and the structure of columella cells in Zea mays

We launched imbibed seeds and seedlings of Zea mays into outer space aboard the space shuttle Columbia to determine the influence of microgravity on 1) root-cap regeneration, and 2) the distribution of amyloplasts and endoplasmic reticulum (ER) in the putative statocytes (i.e., columella cells) of roots. Decapped roots grown on Earth completely regenerated their caps within 4.8 days after decapping, while those grown in microgravity did not regenerate caps. In Earth-grown seedlings, the ER was localized primarily along the periphery of columella cells, and amyloplasts sedimented in response to gravity to the lower sides of the cells. Seeds germinated on Earth and subsequently launched into outer space had a distribution of ER in columella cells similar to that of Earth-grown controls, but amyloplasts were distributed throughout the cells. Seeds germinated in outer space were characterized by the presence of spherical and ellipsoidal masses of ER and randomly distributed amyloplasts in their columella cells. These results indicate that 1) gravity is necessary for regeneration of the root cap, 2) columella cells can maintain their characteristic distribution of ER in microgravity only if they are exposed previously to gravity, and 3) gravity is necessary to distribute the ER in columella cells of this cultivar of Z. mays.

NASA Discipline Number 00-00↗

High-precision predictions of properties of chemically disordered crystals

Multiple scattering theory (MST) combined with density functional theory (DFT) allows to predict properties of chemically disordered materials from the first principles. However, such predictions often suffer from the systematic errors, which depend on crystal geometry. Each computed property of a particular crystal structure typically has a relatively small random error and a larger systematic error. Cancellation of systematic errors allows more accurate predictions. We propose a computational methodology based on the subtraction of the systematic errors in MST. To exemplify it, we apply it to the precipitated alloys. Considering precipitation strengthening in Ni superalloys, we compute the relative enthalpies of the competing Ni3(Al,Ti)1 crystal structures with a chemical disorder on the Al+Ti sublattice. Such predicted composition-structure-property dependencies are useful for the guided design of the next-generation alloys with improved strength. Our predictions are validated by comparison with the results of other DFT methods (having a higher computational cost) and with experiment. We acknowledge funding of the guided design of stronger superalloys for airspace by NASA Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) via Transformational Tools and Technologies (TTT) Project.

Computational↗

Atmospheric Electrical Modeling in Support of the NASA F-106 Storm Hazards Project

A recently developed storm electrification model (SEM) is used to investigate the operating environment of the F-106 airplane during the NASA Storm Hazards Project. The model is 2-D, time dependent and uses a bulkwater microphysical parameterization scheme. Electric charges and fields are included, and the model is fully coupled dynamically, microphysically and electrically. One flight showed that a high electric field was developed at the aircraft's operating altitude (28 kft) and that a strong electric field would also be found below 20 kft; however, this low-altitude, high-field region was associated with the presence of small hail, posing a hazard to the aircraft. An operational procedure to increase the frequency of low-altitude lightning strikes was suggested. To further the understanding of lightning within the cloud environment, a parameterization of the lightning process was included in the SEM. It accounted for the initiation, propagation, termination, and charge redistribution associated with an intracloud discharge. Finally, a randomized lightning propagation scheme was developed, and the effects of cloud particles on the initiation of lightning investigated.

Helsdon, John H., Jr.↗

Modulation of statolith mass and grouping in white clover (Trifolium repens) growth in 1-g, microgravity and on the clinostat

Current models of gravity perception in higher plants focus on the buoyant weight of starch-filled amyloplasts as the initial gravity signal susceptor (statolith). However, no tests have yet determined if statolith mass is regulated to increase or decrease gravity stimulus to the plant. To this end, the root caps of white clover (Trifolium repens) grown in three gravity environments with three different levels of gravity stimulation have been examined: (i) 1-g control with normal static gravistimulation, (ii) on a slow clinostat with constant gravistimulation, and (iii) in the stimulus-free microgravity aboard the Space Shuttle. Seedlings were germinated and grown in the BioServe Fluid Processing Apparatus and root cap structure was examined at both light and electron microscopic levels, including three-dimensional cell reconstruction from serial sections. Quantitative analysis of the electron micrographs demonstrated that the starch content of amyloplasts varied with seedling age but not gravity condition. It was also discovered that, unlike in starch storage amyloplasts, all of the starch granules of statolith amyloplasts were encompassed by a fine filamentous, ribosome-excluding matrix. From light micrographic 3-D cell reconstructions, the absolute volume, number, and positional relationships between amyloplasts showed (i) that individual amyloplast volume increased in microgravity but remained constant in seedlings grown for up to three days on the clinostat, (ii) the number of amyloplasts per cell remained unchanged in microgravity but decreased on the clinostat, and (iii) the three-dimensional positions of amyloplasts were not random. Instead amyloplasts in microgravity were grouped near the cell centers while those from the clinostat appeared more dispersed. Taken together, these observations suggest that changing gravity stimulation can elicit feedback control over statolith mass by changing the size, number, and grouping of amyloplasts. These results support the starch-statolith theory of graviperception in higher plants and add to current models with a new feedback control loop as a mechanism for modulation of statolith responsiveness to inertial acceleration.

Flight Experiment↗

Colorado Front Range Disasters: Understanding the Impact of Forest Management on the Cameron Peak and CalWood Fire

Along the Colorado Front Range, forest management has gained significant attention due to uncharacteristically large fires that burned late in 2020. The Cameron Peak Fire (largest in Colorado recorded history) and the CalWood Fire collectively burned an estimated 219,019 acres from August through December of 2020. Project partners at the Coalition for the Poudre River Watershed, Colorado State Forest Service, Ben Delatour Scout Ranch, The Nature Conservancy, Colorado Forest Restoration Institute, and Colorado State University were interested in understanding the effectiveness of previous forest treatments in reducing burn severity within the Cameron Peak Fire and the CalWood Fire. We first collated a forest treatment dataset from pre-existing datasets by reclassifying over 29,000 treatments, which occurred across the Northern Colorado Front Range between 1970-2020. Secondly, we mapped three burn severity indices using Landsat 8 OLI and Sentinel-2 MSI Earth observations and compared them to soil burn severity field data. Thirdly, a total of 35 topographic, disturbance, forest structure, and treatment predictor variables were generated across the fires. Finally, we assessed relationships between these predictor variables and burn severity using the random forest algorithm. Model results indicate that the primary drivers of burn severity were elevation and distance to treatment edge for the Cameron Peak Fire and fire area and forest canopy cover for the CalWood Fire. Further analysis of these variables paired with field data is necessary to understand the relationship between burn severity and treatments to guide future restoration efforts, improve forest resiliency, and mitigate fire risks.

Neal Swayze↗

Investigation of a Cross-Correlation Based Optical Strain Measurement Technique for Detecting radial Growth on a Rotating Disk

The Aeronautical Sciences Project under NASA`s Fundamental Aeronautics Program is extremely interested in the development of novel measurement technologies, such as optical surface measurements in the internal parts of a flow path, for in situ health monitoring of gas turbine engines. In situ health monitoring has the potential to detect flaws, i.e. cracks in key components, such as engine turbine disks, before the flaws lead to catastrophic failure. In the present study, a cross-correlation imaging technique is investigated in a proof-of-concept study as a possible optical technique to measure the radial growth and strain field on an already cracked sub-scale turbine engine disk under loaded conditions in the NASA Glenn Research Center`s High Precision Rotordynamics Laboratory. The optical strain measurement technique under investigation offers potential fault detection using an applied high-contrast random speckle pattern and imaging the pattern under unloaded and loaded conditions with a CCD camera. Spinning the cracked disk at high speeds induces an external load, resulting in a radial growth of the disk of approximately 50.0-im in the flawed region and hence, a localized strain field. When imaging the cracked disk under static conditions, the disk will be undistorted; however, during rotation the cracked region will grow radially, thus causing the applied particle pattern to be .shifted`. The resulting particle displacements between the two images will then be measured using the two-dimensional cross-correlation algorithms implemented in standard Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) software to track the disk growth, which facilitates calculation of the localized strain field. In order to develop and validate this optical strain measurement technique an initial proof-of-concept experiment is carried out in a controlled environment. Using PIV optimization principles and guidelines, three potential speckle patterns, for future use on the rotating disk, are developed and investigated in the controlled experiment. A range of known shifts are induced on the patterns; reference and data images are acquired before and after the induced shift, respectively, and the images are processed using the cross-correlation algorithms in order to determine the particle displacements. The effectiveness of each pattern at resolving the known shift is evaluated and discussed in order to choose the most suitable pattern to be implemented onto a rotating disk in the Rotordynamics Lab. Although testing on the rotating disk has not yet been performed, the driving principles behind the development of the present optical technique are based upon critical aspects of the future experiment, such as the amount of expected radial growth, disk analysis, and experimental design and are therefore addressed in the paper.

Clem, Michelle M.↗

Analysis of filter tuning techniques for sequential orbit determination

This paper examines filter tuning techniques for a sequential orbit determination (OD) covariance analysis. Recently, there has been a renewed interest in sequential OD, primarily due to the successful flight qualification of the Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS) Onboard Navigation System (TONS) using Doppler data extracted onboard the Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer (EUVE) spacecraft. TONS computes highly accurate orbit solutions onboard the spacecraft in realtime using a sequential filter. As the result of the successful TONS-EUVE flight qualification experiment, the Earth Observing System (EOS) AM-1 Project has selected TONS as the prime navigation system. In addition, sequential OD methods can be used successfully for ground OD. Whether data are processed onboard or on the ground, a sequential OD procedure is generally favored over a batch technique when a realtime automated OD system is desired. Recently, OD covariance analyses were performed for the TONS-EUVE and TONS-EOS missions using the sequential processing options of the Orbit Determination Error Analysis System (ODEAS). ODEAS is the primary covariance analysis system used by the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Flight Dynamics Division (FDD). The results of these analyses revealed a high sensitivity of the OD solutions to the state process noise filter tuning parameters. The covariance analysis results show that the state estimate error contributions from measurement-related error sources, especially those due to the random noise and satellite-to-satellite ionospheric refraction correction errors, increase rapidly as the state process noise increases. These results prompted an in-depth investigation of the role of the filter tuning parameters in sequential OD covariance analysis. This paper analyzes how the spacecraft state estimate errors due to dynamic and measurement-related error sources are affected by the process noise level used. This information is then used to establish guidelines for determining optimal filter tuning parameters in a given sequential OD scenario for both covariance analysis and actual OD. Comparisons are also made with corresponding definitive OD results available from the TONS-EUVE analysis.

Lee, T.↗

Progress of a Cross-correlation Based Optical Strain Measurement Technique for Detecting Radial Growth on a Rotating Disk

The Aeronautical Sciences Project under NASAs Fundamental Aeronautics Program is extremely interested in the development of fault detection technologies, such as optical surface measurements in the internal parts of a flow path, for in situ health monitoring of gas turbine engines. In situ health monitoring has the potential to detect flaws, i.e. cracks in key components, such as engine turbine disks, before the flaws lead to catastrophic failure. In the present study, a cross-correlation imaging technique is investigated in a proof-of-concept study as a possible optical technique to measure the radial growth and strain field on an already cracked sub-scale turbine engine disk under loaded conditions in the NASA Glenn Research Centers High Precision Rotordynamics Laboratory. The optical strain measurement technique under investigation offers potential fault detection using an applied background consisting of a high-contrast random speckle pattern and imaging the background under unloaded and loaded conditions with a CCD camera. Spinning the cracked disk at high speeds induces an external load, resulting in a radial growth of the disk of approximately 50.8-m in the flawed region and hence, a localized strain field. When imaging the cracked disk under static conditions, the disk will appear shifted. The resulting background displacements between the two images will then be measured using the two-dimensional cross-correlation algorithms implemented in standard Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) software to track the disk growth, which facilitates calculation of the localized strain field. In order to develop and validate this optical strain measurement technique an initial proof-of-concept experiment is carried out in a controlled environment. Using PIV optimization principles and guidelines, three potential backgrounds, for future use on the rotating disk, are developed and investigated in the controlled experiment. A range of known shifts are induced on the backgrounds; reference and data images are acquired before and after the induced shift, respectively, and the images are processed using the cross- correlation algorithms in order to determine the background displacements. The effectiveness of each background at resolving the known shift is evaluated and discussed in order to choose to the most suitable background to be implemented onto a rotating disk in the Rotordynamics Lab. Although testing on the rotating disk has not yet been performed, the driving principles behind the development of the present optical technique are based upon critical aspects of the future experiment, such as the amount of expected radial growth, disk analysis, and experimental design and are therefore addressed in the paper.

Clem, Michelle M.↗

Probabilistic Design Methodology and its Application to the Design of an Umbilical Retract Mechanism

A lot has been learned from past experience with structural and machine element failures. The understanding of failure modes and the application of an appropriate design analysis method can lead to improved structural and machine element safety as well as serviceability. To apply Probabilistic Design Methodology (PDM), all uncertainties are modeled as random variables with selected distribution types, means, and standard deviations. It is quite difficult to achieve a robust design without considering the randomness of the design parameters which is the case in the use of the Deterministic Design Approach. The US Navy has a fleet of submarine-launched ballistic missiles. An umbilical plug joins the missile to the submarine in order to provide electrical and cooling water connections. As the missile leaves the submarine, an umbilical retract mechanism retracts the umbilical plug clear of the advancing missile after disengagement during launch and retrains the plug in the retracted position. The design of the current retract mechanism in use was based on the deterministic approach which puts emphasis on factor of safety. A new umbilical retract mechanism that is simpler in design, lighter in weight, more reliable, easier to adjust, and more cost effective has become desirable since this will increase the performance and efficiency of the system. This paper reports on a recent project performed at Tennessee State University for the US Navy that involved the application of PDM to the design of an umbilical retract mechanism. This paper demonstrates how the use of PDM lead to the minimization of weight and cost, and the maximization of reliability and performance.

Onyebueke, Landon↗

Lateral and Vertical Heterogeneity of Thorium in the Procellarum KREEP Terrane: As Reflected in the Ejecta Deposits of Post-Imbrium Craters

The Procellarum KREEP Terrane displays the highest concentrations of Th on the Moon. However, locations of elevated Th in this region appear to be random. As observed in the 5 deg per pixel equal-area Th data, and made more evident in the preliminary 2 deg data, Th is enhanced around the craters Aristillus, Aristarchus, Kepler, Mairan, the Apennine Bench formation, and the Fra Mauro region, while noticeably and unexpectedly lower in other locations (e.g., Archimedes, Copernicus, Eratosthenes, and Plato). We have examined the composition of the materials present in these regions with the goal of understanding the patchy nature to the distribution of Th and ultimately to decipher the geologic processes that have concentrated the Th. At present time, the published resolution of the Lunar Prospector Th gamma-ray data is low (5 deg per pixel), but this will soon be superceded by significantly higher-resolution data (2 deg per pixel). Even at this improved resolution, however, it is difficult to resolve the units that are the major source of Th. In an attempt to circumvent this problem, we employ the higher-resolution Clementine multispectral data for those regions mentioned above. We use the UV-VIS-derived compositional information and the spectral properties of craters, and their ejecta as drill holes through the mare-basalt surface to investigate the thickness and composition of underlying material. With this information we attempt to piece together the stratigraphy and geologic history of the Imbrium-Procellanim region. We processed the five-band multispectral data from the Clementine Mission (415, 750,900,950, and 1000nm) using ISIS software and calibration parameters developed by the USGS, Flagstaff, Arizona. Final image mosaics are in equal-area sinusoidal projection, and have a resolution of 250 m/pixel. Using the method of we produced maps of FeO and Ti02 composition. Here we examine the Th, FeO, and Ti02 composition and spectral properties of the craters discussed above and their ejecta, with the goal of describing the materials they excavate. One interpretation for the origin of the high-Th material is that subsurface KREEPy materials have been excavated by impact craters. The material excavated may be either volcanic KREEP (e,g., Apennine Bench Formation), KREEPy impact-melt breccia formed by the Imbrium impact (e.g., Fra Mauro Formation), or other KREEP-rich crustal material. Determining which type of material is responsible for the elevated Th and its extent is important to understanding the premare and possibly the prebasin stratigraphy of the Imbrium-Procellarum Region. Merging the 5 deg. Th data with the shaded relief map, we observe that the highest Th concentrations are not related to pre-Imbrium upper crustal materials. The Apennines, Alpes, and Caucasus Mountains represent the pre-Imbrian highlands material and do not express concentrations of Th, FeO, and TiO2 as high as the most Th-fich materials exposed within the Procellarum KREEP Terrane. We observe that, in general, these massifs contain 10-14 wt% FeO and 4-7 ppm Th. Determining whether the Th signal is from KREEP basalts or KREEPy impact-melt breccias cannot be done with the Clementine data because the two rock types are compositionally and mineralogically too similar (e.g., the Th-rich, mafic impact-melt breccias in the Apollo sample collection are dominated by a KREEP-basalt like component. Mapping-the distribution and sizes of craters and whether they display elevated Th concentrations or not, should reveal the depth and thickness of the KREEP-rich materials, and whether they are ubiquitous (i.e., impact-melt breccia) or more randomly distributed; this might be taken as an indicator of localized KREEP-basalt flows. Within the southeastern region of the Imbrium basin, there are two Th hot spots. The first is associated with the crater Aristillus, and the latter with the Apennine Bench Formation. Adjacent to these two hot spots are craters with a lower Th signature: Archimedes and Autolycus. We observe in the ejecta of Aristillus, a region of significantly lower FeO (10-14 wt%) relative to the surrounding mare basalt. The crater Autolycus, 50 km to the south, did not excavate similar low-FeO material. We suggest that the lower-FeO material in the ejecta of Aristillus corresponds to Th-rich material; the FeO content observed in Aristillus ejecta is comparable to that of KREEP basalt or mafic impact melt breccia (10-12 wt% FeO). We determine that this low FeO, Th-rich material is volcanic KREEP, as opposed to Imbrium impact melt, on the basis that the low-Fe material is exposed more prominently in ejecta in the northern portion of Aristillus. Our assumption is that if the layer underlying Aristillus was continuous, a more widespread and uniform low-Fe signature wouldbe observed in the ejecta deposit. Archimedes, 110 km southwest of Aristillus, impacted the northern portion of the Apennine Bench prior to the eruption of KREEP basalt. Archimedes rim material is not as enriched in Th as the Apennine Bench, and there are differences between the two in FeO concentration and in their continuum slope. Archimedes exhibits a much steeperor "redder" continuum slope than the Apennine Bench. This steepslope suggests the presence of glassy material. The glassy material is concentrated around an unnamed crater on the southern rim of Archimedes (4.5W, 28.2N) and along the northern rim of Archimedes. We suggest two possibilities, or a combination of the two, to explain the low-Th signal from Archimedes: (1) The Apennine Bench prior to KREEP basalt eruption was lower in Th (4-7 ppm, e.g., similar to the Apennine massifs) and KREEP basalts are absent in the rim of Archimedes; or (2) the glassy (possibly pyroclastic) material layering the rim of the Archimedes, dilutes any high-Th material present with low-Th material. (Additional information is contained in the original)

Gillis, J. J.↗

Hydrogen masers and cesium fountains at NRC

The NRC masers H-3 and H-4 have been operating since June 1993 with cavity servo control. These low-flux active H masers are showing stabilities of about 10(exp -15) from 1 hour to several days. Stability results are presented, and the current and planned uses of the masers are discussed. A cesium fountain primary frequency standard project has been started at NRC. Trapping and launching experiments with the goal of 7 m/s launches are beginning. We discuss our plans for a local oscillator and servo that exploit the pulsed aspect of cesium fountain standards, and meet the challenge of 10(exp -14) tau(exp -1/2) stability without requiring masers. At best, we expect to run this frequency standard initially for periods of hours each working day rather than continuously for years, and so frequency transfer to outside laboratories has been carefully considered. We conclude that masers (or other even better secondary clocks) are required to exploit this potential accuracy of the cesium fountain. We present and discuss our conclusion that it is feasible to transfer frequency in this way with a transfer-induced uncertainty of less than 10(exp -15), even in the presence of maser frequency drift and random walk noise.

Boulanger, J.-S.↗

Supporting Development for the Stirling Radioisotope Generator and Advanced Stirling Technology Development at NASA Glenn Research Center

A high-efficiency, 110-We (watts electric) Stirling Radioisotope Generator (SRG110) for possible use on future NASA Space Science missions is being developed by the Department of Energy, Lockheed Martin, Stirling Technology Company (STC), and NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC). Potential mission use includes providing spacecraft onboard electric power for deep space missions and power for unmanned Mars rovers. GRC is conducting an in-house supporting technology project to assist in SRG110 development. One-, three-, and six-month heater head structural benchmark tests have been completed in support of a heater head life assessment. Testing is underway to evaluate the key epoxy bond of the permanent magnets to the linear alternator stator lamination stack. GRC has completed over 10,000 hours of extended duration testing of the Stirling convertors for the SRG110, and a three-year test of two Stirling convertors in a thermal vacuum environment will be starting shortly. GRC is also developing advanced technology for Stirling convertors, aimed at substantially improving the specific power and efficiency of the convertor and the overall generator. Sunpower, Inc. has begun the development of a lightweight Stirling convertor, under a NASA Research Announcement (NRA) award, that has the potential to double the system specific power to about 8 We/kg. GRC has performed random vibration testing of a lower-power version of this convertor to evaluate robustness for surviving launch vibrations. STC has also completed the initial design of a lightweight convertor. Status of the development of a multi-dimensional computational fluid dynamics code and high-temperature materials work on advanced superalloys, refractory metal alloys, and ceramics are also discussed.

Thieme, Lanny G.↗