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NASA NTRS1994

The Impact Hazard

The Earth has been subject to hypervelocity impacts from comets and asteroids since its formation, and such impacts have played an important role in the evolution of life on our planet. We now recognize not only the historical role of impacts, but the contemporary hazard posed by such events. In the absence of a complete census of potentially threatening Earth-crossing asteroids or comets (called collectively Near Earth Objects, or NEOs), or even of a comprehensive cur-rent search program to identify NEOs, we can consider the hazard only from a probabilistic perspective. We know the steep power-law relationship between NEO numbers and size, with many more small bodies than large ones. We also know that few objects less than about 50 m in diameter (with kinetic energy near 10 megatons) penetrate the atmosphere and are capable of doing surface damage. But there is a spectrum of possible impact hazards associated with objects from this 10-megaton threshold all the way up to NEOs 5 km or larger in diameter, which are capable of inflicting severe damage on the environment, leading to mass extinction's of species. Detailed analysis has shown that, in general, the larger the object the greater the hazard, even when allowance is made for the infrequency of large impacts. Most of the danger to human life is associated with impacts by objects roughly 2 km or larger (energy greater than 1 million megatons), which can inject sufficient submicrometer dust into the atmosphere to produce a severe short-term global cooling with subsequent loss of crops, leading to starvation. Hazard estimates suggest that the chance of such an event occurring during a human lifetime is about 1:5000, and the global probability of death from such impacts is of the order of 1:20000, values that can be compared with risks associated with other natural hazards such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and severe storms. However, the impact hazard differs from the others in that it can be largely prevented by a comprehensive survey for threatening objects and the application of technological solutions to deflect or destroy objects that are found to have orbits that will lead to collision with the Earth.

Morrison, David↗

NASA NTRS2019

Dormancy Should Be Avoided for Mars and Deep Space Recycling Life Support

Mars is the crucial goal of human exploration beyond the Earth-moon system. The Mars round trip transit vehicle has been expected to use a regenerative Life Support System (LSS) similar to the one on the International Space Station (ISS). It often assumed that the Mars transit LSS will be operated on the outward trip to Mars, placed in dormancy while the full crew explores the surface, and then restored to operation for the return trip to Earth. The major difference between Mars missions and operations in the Earth-moon system is the need for much higher reliability for Mars missions, since rapid resupply of parts and materials or a quick crew return to Earth are not possible. Mars systems must achieve intrinsic high reliability by design, test, failure analysis, and redesign and then increase operational robustness by providing spare parts and redundant systems. Further requiring the LSS to be capable of dormancy and restoration to operation greatly increases the difficulty of design, test, and verification. The process of implementing dormancy and then restoring operation would add significant risk to the mission. Dormancy should be avoided for Mars and can be avoided several ways. First and most obvious, some crew can remain continually on board. If no crew can remain onboard, dormancy can still be avoided if an unused spare LSS is activated for the return trip, rather than restarting the used out bound system. Systems similar to the ISS LSS would have a significant probability of failure on a Mars trip and therefore would require two or three spares. Another full spare LSS could be provided as the return trip system, rather than refurbishing a used LSS.

dormancy↗

NASA NTRS2014

Assessing the Effect of Spaceflight on the Propensity for Astronauts to Develop Disk Herniation

BACKGROUND: A previous study [1] reported that the instantaneous risk of developing a Herniated Nucleus Pulposus (HNP) was higher in astronauts who had flown at least one mission, as compared with those in the corps who had not yet flown. However, the study only analyzed time to HNP after the first mission (if any) and did not account for the possible effects of multiple missions. While many HNP's occurred well into astronauts' careers or in some cases years after retirement, the higher incidence of HNPs relatively soon after completion of space missions appears to indicate that spaceflight may lead to an increased risk of HNP. The purpose of this study was to support the Human System Risk Board assessment of back pain, evaluate the risk of injury due to dynamic loads, and update the previous dataset which contained events up to December 31, 2006. METHODS: Data was queried from the electronic medical record and provided by the Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health. The data included all 330 United States astronauts from 1959 through February 2014. Cases were confirmed by Magnetic Resonance Imaging, Computerized Tomography, Myelography, operative findings, or through clinical confirmation with a neurologist or neurosurgeon. In this analysis, astronauts who had an HNP at selection into the corps or had an HNP diagnosis prior to their first flight were excluded. The statistical challenges in using the available data to separate effects of spaceflight from those associated with general astronaut training and lifestyle on propensity to develop HNPs are many. The primary outcome is reported date of first HNP (if any), which at best is only an approximation to the actual time of occurrence. To properly analyze this data with a survival analysis model, one must also know the "exposure" time - i.e. how long each astronaut has been at risk for developing an HNP. If an HNP is reported soon after a mission, is it mission caused or general? If the former, exposure time should be counted from the time of landing (assuming the risk of HNP occurring during a mission is zero). If the latter, exposure time should be counted from the time of selection; however we can't directly know which one to use. In our analysis we take both of these possibilities into account with a competing risks model, wherein two distinct stochastic processes are going on: TG = time to HNP (general) and TS = time to HNP (spaceflight). Under this type of model, whichever of these occurs first is what we observe; in other words we don't observe TG or TS, only min(TG, TS). Here, we parameterized the model in terms of separate Weibull hazard functions for each process and estimated all parameters using maximum likelihood. In addition, we allowed for a "cured fraction" - i.e. the possibility that some astronauts may never develop an HNP. RESULTS: Results will include a depiction of the competing hazard functions as well as a probability curve for the relative likelihood that an HNP reported at a given time after a mission is actually mission caused. Other factors, such as dwell time in microgravity and vehicle landing environment will be explored. An overall assessment as to whether spaceflight truly exacerbates HNP risk will be made.

Feiveson, A. H.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Prediction of thrombus-related mechanical prosthetic valve dysfunction using transesophageal echocardiography

Identification of thrombus-related mechanical prosthetic valve dysfunction (MPVD) has important therapeutic implications. We sought to develop an algorithm, combining clinical and echocardiographic parameters, for prediction of thrombus-related MPVD in a series of 53 patients (24 men, age 52 +/- 16 years) who had intraoperative diagnosis of thrombus or pannus from 1992 to 1997. Clinical and echocardiographic parameters were analyzed to identify predictors of thrombus and pannus. Prevalence of thrombus and diagnostic yields relative to the number of predictors were determined. There were 22 patients with thrombus, 19 patients with pannus, and 12 patients with both. Forty-two of 53 masses were visualized using transesophageal echocardiography (TEE), including 29 of 34 thrombi or both thrombi and panni and 13 of 19 isolated panni. Predictors of thrombus or mixed presentation include mobile mass (p = 0.009), attachment to occluder (p = 0.02), elevated gradients (p = 0.04), and an international normalized ratio of < or = 2.5 (p = 0.03). All 34 patients with thrombus or mixed presentation had > or = 1 predictor. The prevalence of thrombus in the presence of < or = 1, 2, and > or = 3 predictors is 14%, 69%, and 91%, respectively. Thus, TEE is sensitive in the identification of abnormal mass in the setting of MPVD. An algorithm based on clinical and transesophageal echocardiographic predictors may be useful to estimate the likelihood of thrombus in the setting of MPVD. In the presence of > or = 3 predictors, the probability of thrombus is high.

NASA Discipline Cardiopulmonary↗

NASA NTRS1989

Mars rover RTG study

The paper describes the design and analysis of radioisotope thermoelectric generators (RTGs) for powering the Mars rover vehicle, which is a critical element of the unmanned Mars Rover and Sample Return mission (MRSR). A brief description is given of a reference mission scenario, an illustrative rover design and activity pattern on Mars, power system requirements, and environmental constraints, including the RTG cooling requirements during transit to Mars. The key RTG design problem, i.e. venting the helium generated by the fuel's alpha decay without intrusion of the Martian atmosphere into the RTG, is identified and a design approach to solve that problem is proposed. The study's primary objective is to quantify the performance improvements achievable in new successfully developed technologies, to estimate the required time, effort, success probability, and programmatic risk in developing these new technologies, and thus to help identify the best strategy for meeting the MRSR system goals. Finally, the paper compares the RTGs' specific powers for different power levels (250W vs 125W), different thermoelectric element designs (standard vs short unicouples vs multicouples), and different thermoelectric figures of merit (0.00058K to the -1 to 0.00140K to the -1).

Schock, A.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Safety Risk Knowledge Elicitation in Support of Aeronautical R and D Portfolio Management: A Case Study

Aviation is a problem domain characterized by a high level of system complexity and uncertainty. Safety risk analysis in such a domain is especially challenging given the multitude of operations and diverse stakeholders. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) projects that by 2025 air traffic will increase by more than 50 percent with 1.1 billion passengers a year and more than 85,000 flights every 24 hours contributing to further delays and congestion in the sky (Circelli, 2011). This increased system complexity necessitates the application of structured safety risk analysis methods to understand and eliminate where possible, reduce, and/or mitigate risk factors. The use of expert judgments for probabilistic safety analysis in such a complex domain is necessary especially when evaluating the projected impact of future technologies, capabilities, and procedures for which current operational data may be scarce. Management of an R&D product portfolio in such a dynamic domain needs a systematic process to elicit these expert judgments, process modeling results, perform sensitivity analyses, and efficiently communicate the modeling results to decision makers. In this paper a case study focusing on the application of an R&D portfolio of aeronautical products intended to mitigate aircraft Loss of Control (LOC) accidents is presented. In particular, the knowledge elicitation process with three subject matter experts who contributed to the safety risk model is emphasized. The application and refinement of a verbal-numerical scale for conditional probability elicitation in a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) is discussed. The preliminary findings from this initial step of a three-part elicitation are important to project management practitioners as they illustrate the vital contribution of systematic knowledge elicitation in complex domains.

Shih, Ann T.↗

NASA NTRS2011

A Comparative Analysis of Two Full-Scale MD-500 Helicopter Crash Tests

Two full scale crash tests were conducted on a small MD-500 helicopter at NASA Langley Research Center fs Landing and Impact Research Facility. One of the objectives of this test series was to compare airframe impact response and occupant injury data between a test which outfitted the airframe with an external composite passive energy absorbing honeycomb and a test which had no energy absorbing features. In both tests, the nominal impact velocity conditions were 7.92 m/sec (26 ft/sec) vertical and 12.2 m/sec (40 ft/sec) horizontal, and the test article weighed approximately 1315 kg (2900 lbs). Airframe instrumentation included accelerometers and strain gages. Four Anthropomorphic Test Devices were also onboard; three of which were standard Hybrid II and III, while the fourth was a specialized torso. The test which contained the energy absorbing honeycomb showed vertical impact acceleration loads of approximately 15 g, low risk for occupant injury probability, and minimal airframe damage. These results were contrasted with the test conducted without the energy absorbing honeycomb. The test results showed airframe accelerations of approximately 40 g in the vertical direction, high risk for injury probability in the occupants, and substantial airframe damage.

Littell, Justin D.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Transfer Function Models and Sensitivity Analysis

In many situations, real or induced flaws such as tight cracks with known morphology cannot be manufactured in part configuration specimens or in real parts. Typically, fatigue cracks are manufactured in simple geometry specimens such as flat plates, dog-bone shaped flat or round specimens. If a nondestructive evaluation (NDE) technique is required to provide a reliably detectable target flaw size denoted as α_(90/95) for induced flaws in real part, then the direct method for qualifying the NDE procedure is to use the appropriate induced flaw specimens and perform probability of detection analysis using these flaws. This can be described as direct POD demonstration testing, which may follow guidelines of MIL-HDBK-1823. This paper considers a case, where induced flaws are not available in part configuration specimens. Therefore, a direct POD demonstration study cannot be undertaken. In such situation, general practice for NDE procedure qualification is to use artificial flaws in simple geometry and part configuration specimens, and induced flaws in the chosen simple geometry specimens. Signal response data is taken on all sets of artificial and induced flaws. NDE procedure testing on induced flaw in simple geometry specimen is called NDE demonstration testing here. A transfer function NDE procedure qualification method for forward case calculates predicted induced flaw size for demonstration using a chosen target flaw size. Another transfer function method for inverse case, calculates the target flaw size using a given demonstration flaw size. The transfer function analysis assumes relationship of artificial flaw signal responses in real parts and simple geometry specimens; and induced flaw responses in simple geometry specimens to induced flaws in real parts. The signal response transfer relationships model should be defined before transfer function models can be devised. Assuming that the signal response transfer relationships model is valid, forward and inverse case transfer function methods have been devised. Because of lack of signal response data from induced flaws in real part, 90/95% POD/confidence (P/C) cannot be demonstrated directly. However, the transfer function method may be assessed using simulation to evaluate whether the resulting target flaw size or demonstration flaw size provides adequate confidence to the assumed signal response transfer relationships model. Therefore, the transfer function approach is a risk assessment approach. Both the signal response transfer relationships model and the transfer function model are important in managing risk in results provided by the transfer function NDE technique qualification or assessment. The signal response transfer relationships model needs to be validated with empirical data and then transfer function model needs to be validated for desired P/C on case-by-case basis.

Nondestructive evaluation↗

NASA NTRS2002

Risk-Based Probabilistic Approach to Aeropropulsion System Assessment

In an era of shrinking development budgets and resources, where there is also an emphasis on reducing the product development cycle, the role of system assessment, performed in the early stages of an engine development program, becomes very critical to the successful development of new aeropropulsion systems. A reliable system assessment not only helps to identify the best propulsion system concept among several candidates, it can also identify which technologies are worth pursuing. This is particularly important for advanced aeropropulsion technology development programs, which require an enormous amount of resources. In the current practice of deterministic, or point-design, approaches, the uncertainties of design variables are either unaccounted for or accounted for by safety factors. This could often result in an assessment with unknown and unquantifiable reliability. Consequently, it would fail to provide additional insight into the risks associated with the new technologies, which are often needed by decision makers to determine the feasibility and return-on-investment of a new aircraft engine. In this work, an alternative approach based on the probabilistic method was described for a comprehensive assessment of an aeropropulsion system. The statistical approach quantifies the design uncertainties inherent in a new aeropropulsion system and their influences on engine performance. Because of this, it enhances the reliability of a system assessment. A technical assessment of a wave-rotor-enhanced gas turbine engine was performed to demonstrate the methodology. The assessment used probability distributions to account for the uncertainties that occur in component efficiencies and flows and in mechanical design variables. The approach taken in this effort was to integrate the thermodynamic cycle analysis embedded in the computer code NEPP (NASA Engine Performance Program) and the engine weight analysis embedded in the computer code WATE (Weight Analysis of Turbine Engines) with the fast probability integration technique (FPI). FPI was developed by Southwest Research Institute under contract with the NASA Glenn Research Center. The results were plotted in the form of cumulative distribution functions and sensitivity analyses and were compared with results from the traditional deterministic approach. The comparison showed that the probabilistic approach provides a more realistic and systematic way to assess an aeropropulsion system. The current work addressed the application of the probabilistic approach to assess specific fuel consumption, engine thrust, and weight. Similarly, the approach can be used to assess other aspects of aeropropulsion system performance, such as cost, acoustic noise, and emissions. Additional information is included in the original extended abstract.

Tong, Michael T.↗

NASA NTRS2018

CA Risk Assessment Approaches

Current single-Pc approach work well when subtended by appropriate hypothesis-testing framework. Reframing construct in terms of miss distance distribution would confer certain advantages such as reducing to same import as Pc, but still convey some additional information. Methods to incorporate known uncertainties in covariances and HBR should be pursued that can also be framed in terms of miss distance distribution. We present Plausibilistic II and Possibilistic constructs, to determine their adequacy and viable recommendation.

Conjunction↗

NASA NTRS2019

Vortex Radiometry: Enabling Frequency Agile Communications

Exponential proliferation of UAVs and CubeSats puts NASA's high priority communication systems at risk. UAVs and CubeSats are easy to acquire, modify and build, making it extremely likely that some will be used in unauthorized ways. While these systems provide several benefits to society, their increased use also increases the probability of unintentional signal interference, and even deliberate jamming of NASA's communication systems.This paper presents an algorithm to determine 1) when an interference induced fade will occur, 2) how long the fade will persist for and 3) how intense the fade will be. The algorithm requires data collected from Vortex Radiometers (VRs), which probe the RF environment using annular antenna beam patterns. A set of numerical simulations show that a multi-beam VR system can instruct a cognitive antenna to switch between Ka- and X-Band communications, in order to avert interference from small diameter noise sources. Analysis of the simulation results indicate that practical VR systems will require several concentric annular beam patterns, in order to mitigate fades from noise sources of various sizes. The paper concludes by identifying technology challenges that need to be overcome to achieve these capabilities.

Orbital Angular Momentum↗

NASA NTRS2015

The Integrated Medical Model: A Probabilistic Simulation Model for Predicting In-Flight Medical Risks

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a probabilistic model that uses simulation to predict mission medical risk. Given a specific mission and crew scenario, medical events are simulated using Monte Carlo methodology to provide estimates of resource utilization, probability of evacuation, probability of loss of crew, and the amount of mission time lost due to illness. Mission and crew scenarios are defined by mission length, extravehicular activity (EVA) schedule, and crew characteristics including: sex, coronary artery calcium score, contacts, dental crowns, history of abdominal surgery, and EVA eligibility. The Integrated Medical Evidence Database (iMED) houses the model inputs for one hundred medical conditions using in-flight, analog, and terrestrial medical data. Inputs include incidence, event durations, resource utilization, and crew functional impairment. Severity of conditions is addressed by defining statistical distributions on the dichotomized best and worst-case scenarios for each condition. The outcome distributions for conditions are bounded by the treatment extremes of the fully treated scenario in which all required resources are available and the untreated scenario in which no required resources are available. Upon occurrence of a simulated medical event, treatment availability is assessed, and outcomes are generated depending on the status of the affected crewmember at the time of onset, including any pre-existing functional impairments or ongoing treatment of concurrent conditions. The main IMM outcomes, including probability of evacuation and loss of crew life, time lost due to medical events, and resource utilization, are useful in informing mission planning decisions. To date, the IMM has been used to assess mission-specific risks with and without certain crewmember characteristics, to determine the impact of eliminating certain resources from the mission medical kit, and to design medical kits that maximally benefit crew health while meeting mass and volume constraints.

Risk Analysis↗

NASA NTRS1992

Probabilistic evaluation of uncertainties and risks in aerospace components

This paper summarizes a methodology developed at NASA Lewis Research Center which computationally simulates the structural, material, and load uncertainties associated with Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) components. The methodology was applied to evaluate the scatter in static, buckling, dynamic, fatigue, and damage behavior of the SSME turbo pump blade. Also calculated are the probability densities of typical critical blade responses, such as effective stress, natural frequency, damage initiation, most probable damage path, etc. Risk assessments were performed for different failure modes, and the effect of material degradation on the fatigue and damage behaviors of a blade were calculated using a multi-factor interaction equation. Failure probabilities for different fatigue cycles were computed and the uncertainties associated with damage initiation and damage propagation due to different load cycle were quantified. Evaluations on the effects of mistuned blades on a rotor were made; uncertainties in the excitation frequency were found to significantly amplify the blade responses of a mistuned rotor. The effects of the number of blades on a rotor were studied. The autocorrelation function of displacements and the probability density function of the first passage time for deterministic and random barriers for structures subjected to random processes also were computed. A brief discussion was included on the future direction of probabilistic structural analysis.

Shah, A. R.↗

NASA NTRS2015

The Integrated Medical Model: A Probabilistic Simulation Model Predicting In-Flight Medical Risks

Risk Analysis↗

NASA NTRS2017

Medical Optimization Network for Space Telemedicine Resources

INTRODUCTION: Long-duration missions beyond low Earth orbit introduce new constraints to the space medical system. Beyond the traditional limitations in mass, power, and volume, consideration must be given to other factors such as the inability to evacuate to Earth, communication delays, and limitations in clinical skillsets. As NASA develops the medical system for an exploration mission, it must have an ability to evaluate the trade space of what resources will be most important. The Medical Optimization Network for Space Telemedicine Resources (MONSTR) was developed over the past year for this reason, and is now a system for managing data pertaining to medical resources and their relative importance when addressing medical conditions. METHODS: The MONSTR web application with a Microsoft SQL database backend was developed and made accessible to Tableau v9.3 for analysis and visualization. The database was initially populated with a list of medical conditions of concern for an exploration mission taken from the Integrated Medical Model (IMM), a probabilistic model designed to quantify in-flight medical risk. A team of physicians working within the Exploration Medical Capability Element of NASA's Human Research Program compiled a list diagnostic and treatment medical resources required to address best- and worst-case scenarios of each medical condition using a terrestrial standard of care and entered this data into the system. This list included both tangible resources (e.g. medical equipment, medications) and intangible resources (e.g. clinical skills required to perform a procedure). The physician team then assigned criticality values to each instance of a resource, representing the importance of that resource to diagnosing or treating its associated condition(s). Medical condition probabilities of occurrence during a Mars mission were pulled from the IMM and imported into the MONSTR database for use within a resource criticality-weighting algorithm. DISCUSSION: The MONSTR tool is a novel approach to assess the relative value of individual resources needed for the diagnosis and treatment of medical conditions. Future work will add resources for prevention and long term care of these conditions. Once data collection is complete, MONSTR will provide the operational and research communities at NASA with information to support informed decisions regarding areas of research investment, future crew training, and medical supplies manifested as part of any exploration medical system.

Rubin, D.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Another Approach to Enhance Airline Safety: Using Management Safety Tools

The ultimate goal of conducting an accident investigation is to prevent similar accidents from happening again and to make operations safer system-wide. Based on the findings extracted from the investigation, the "lesson learned" becomes a genuine part of the safety database making risk management available to safety analysts. The airline industry is no exception. In the US, the FAA has advocated the usage of the System Safety concept in enhancing safety since 2000. Yet, in today s usage of System Safety, the airline industry mainly focuses on risk management, which is a reactive process of the System Safety discipline. In order to extend the merit of System Safety and to prevent accidents beforehand, a specific System Safety tool needs to be applied; so a model of hazard prediction can be formed. To do so, the authors initiated this study by reviewing 189 final accident reports from the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) covering FAR Part 121 scheduled operations. The discovered accident causes (direct hazards) were categorized into 10 groups Flight Operations, Ground Crew, Turbulence, Maintenance, Foreign Object Damage (FOD), Flight Attendant, Air Traffic Control, Manufacturer, Passenger, and Federal Aviation Administration. These direct hazards were associated with 36 root factors prepared for an error-elimination model using Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), a leading tool for System Safety experts. An FTA block-diagram model was created, followed by a probability simulation of accidents. Five case studies and reports were provided in order to fully demonstrate the usefulness of System Safety tools in promoting airline safety.

Lu, Chien-tsug↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Risk Assessment of Obstacle Collision for UAVs under Off-nominal Conditions

Enabling operations of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in low-altitude airspace demands the need of robust risk monitoring framework for assessing the safety of airspace, ground structures and people. As widespread applications emerge, the need of risk assessment becomes increasingly important for UAV flights beyond visual line-of-sight, especially subjected to off-nominal conditions introduced by component failures, degraded controllability or environmental disturbances such as wind gusts in an urban canyon. From a safety perspective, collision with obstacles can be detrimental not only to the vehicle and payload, but also to the structure and people on ground. Although it is safe to assume that approved UAVs would be equipped with collision avoidance systems, risk of collision which can be predicted for a flight trajectory even before the UAV encounters any obstacle is beneficial to resolve contingencies in its decision-making under off-nominal conditions. In this paper, a framework is presented for computing the risk of collision with obstacle based on a UAV’s predicted trajectory, proximity to static and dynamic obstacles, sub-system state-of-health and external wind conditions. The conditional probability of trajectory deviation is generated using a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) based on on-board sensor measurements. Further, a kinematic 3-DOF model is implemented to compute deviation in UAV’s trajectory subjected to one case study of off-nominal condition i.e. wind gusts. Finally, the integrated risk factor is demonstrated on real data from experimental flights of an octocopter at NASA Langley Research Center, in presence of simulated obstacles and wind conditions. The proposed approach would enable risk-informed decision making process for timely mitigation of current and future unsafe events.

Bayesian network↗

NASA NTRS2017

Challenges of Debris-Impact Risk Assessment for Robotic Spacecraft

This paper describes an orbital debris impact risk assessment performed on the command and data subsystem electronics box of QuikSCAT, a functioning spacecraft with approximately 18 years on orbit. Several aspects of the analysis are paid particular attention. First is the modeling of a thermal blanket at a small stand-off distance from the box chassis. The properties of the blanket are such that under some assumptions, it may be treated as an effective bumper shield, and under other assumptions, it may not. The assumptions and their effects on the results of the analysis are explored. Similarly, the configuration of the electronic components inside the chassis are such that several definitions of failure criteria appear plausible. The results of each treatment are presented together and compared with the status of the actual electronics box. The failure predictions vary widely between treatments, and the more conservative assumption sets predict incredulously high probabilities of failure. This is problematic because the conservative assumptions are the ones typically used in analyses for flight projects.

Ratliff, Martin↗