Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “probabilistic methods”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 289 records · Page 16
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1987

Probabilistic load model development and validation for composite load spectra for select space propulsion engines

A major task of the program to develop an expert system to predict the loads on selected components of a generic space propulsion engine is the design development and application of a probabilitic loads model. This model is being developed in order to account for the random nature of the loads and assess the variable load ranges' effect on the engine performance. A probabilistic model has been developed. The model is based primarily on simulation methods, but also has a Gaussian algebra method (if all variables are near normal), a fast probability integrator routine (for the calculation of low probability events), and a separate, stand alone program for performing barrier crossing calculations. Each of these probabilistic methods has been verified with theoretical calculations using assumed distributional forms.

Kurth, R.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Probabilistic and Possibilistic Analyses of the Strength of a Bonded Joint

The effects of uncertainties on the predicted strength of a single lap shear joint are examined. Probabilistic and possibilistic methods are used to account for uncertainties. A total of ten variables are assumed to be random, with normal distributions. Both Monte Carlo Simulation and the First Order Reliability Method are used to determine the probability of failure. Triangular membership functions with upper and lower bounds located at plus or minus three standard deviations are used to model uncertainty in the possibilistic analysis. The alpha cut (or vertex) method is used to evaluate the possibility of failure. Linear and geometrically nonlinear finite element analyses are used calculate the response of the joint; fracture in the adhesive and material strength failure in the strap are used to evaluate its strength. Although probabilistic and possibilistic analyses provide significantly more information than do conventional deterministic analyses, they are computationally expensive. A novel scaling approach is developed and used to substantially reduce the computational cost of the probabilistic and possibilistic analyses. The possibilistic approach for treating uncertainties appears to be viable during the conceptual and preliminary design stages when limited data are available and high accuracies are not needed. However, this viability is mixed with several cautions that are discussed herein.

Stroud, W. Jefferson↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Methods for Determining Subsets of High Impact, Probabilistically Dependent Medical Conditions Represented in a Directed Graph

One of the longest standing questions in network theory is how a component influences other parts in the system, and how that role is affected when restricting the navigation through the network. The Katz score, one of many centrality measures created for this purpose, takes into account all possible walks through the network, penalizing each additional step in a walk by a scalar called the Katz parameter. This centrality measure often covers an infinite number of walks with infinite length. In this paper we identify the maximum path length which has influence on the Katz score. We ultimately provide guidance when deciding which Katz parameter to use as it depends on the path length of interest. We show how changing the Katz parameter affects the ranking of the vertices in some synthetic graphs as well as NASA's expert informed network of medical dependencies called the Susceptibility Inference Network (SIN).

Hunter Rehm↗
NASA NTRS2011

Best Merge Region Growing with Integrated Probabilistic Classification for Hyperspectral Imagery

A new method for spectral-spatial classification of hyperspectral images is proposed. The method is based on the integration of probabilistic classification within the hierarchical best merge region growing algorithm. For this purpose, preliminary probabilistic support vector machines classification is performed. Then, hierarchical step-wise optimization algorithm is applied, by iteratively merging regions with the smallest Dissimilarity Criterion (DC). The main novelty of this method consists in defining a DC between regions as a function of region statistical and geometrical features along with classification probabilities. Experimental results are presented on a 200-band AVIRIS image of the Northwestern Indiana s vegetation area and compared with those obtained by recently proposed spectral-spatial classification techniques. The proposed method improves classification accuracies when compared to other classification approaches.

Tarabalka, Yuliya↗
DOE OSTI2022

Operating Dynamic Reserve Dimensioning Using Probabilistic Forecasts

The rapid integration of variable energy sources (VRES) into power grids increases variability and uncertainty of the net demand, making the power system operation challenging. Operating reserve is used by system operators to manage and hedge against such variability and uncertainty. Traditionally, reserve requirements are determined by rules-of-thumb (static reserve requirements, e.g., NERC Reliability Standards), and more recently, dynamic reserve requirements from tools and methods which are in the adoption process (e.g., DynADOR, DRD, and RESERVE, among others). While these methods/tools significantly improve the static rule-of-thumb approaches, they rely exclusively on deterministic data (i.e., best guess only). Consequently, these methods disregard the probabilistic uncertainty thresholds associated with specific days and their weather conditions (i.e., best guess plus probabilistic uncertainty). This work presents practical approaches to determine the operating reserve requirements leveraging the wealth information from probabilistic forecasts. Proposed approaches are validated and tested using actual data from the CAISO system. Furthermore, results show the benefits in terms of risk reduction of considering the probabilistic forecast information into the dimensioning process of operating reserve requirements.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS1989

Probalistic Finite Elements (PFEM) structural dynamics and fracture mechanics

The purpose of this work is to develop computationally efficient methodologies for assessing the effects of randomness in loads, material properties, and other aspects of a problem by a finite element analysis. The resulting group of methods is called probabilistic finite elements (PFEM). The overall objective of this work is to develop methodologies whereby the lifetime of a component can be predicted, accounting for the variability in the material and geometry of the component, the loads, and other aspects of the environment; and the range of response expected in a particular scenario can be presented to the analyst in addition to the response itself. Emphasis has been placed on methods which are not statistical in character; that is, they do not involve Monte Carlo simulations. The reason for this choice of direction is that Monte Carlo simulations of complex nonlinear response require a tremendous amount of computation. The focus of efforts so far has been on nonlinear structural dynamics. However, in the continuation of this project, emphasis will be shifted to probabilistic fracture mechanics so that the effect of randomness in crack geometry and material properties can be studied interactively with the effect of random load and environment.

Liu, Wing-Kam↗
NASA NTRS2007

Design of Oil-Lubricated Machine for Life and Reliability

In the post-World War II era, the major technology drivers for improving the life, reliability, and performance of rolling-element bearings and gears have been the jet engine and the helicopter. By the late 1950s, most of the materials used for bearings and gears in the aerospace industry had been introduced into use. By the early 1960s, the life of most steels was increased over that experienced in the early 1940s, primarily by the introduction of vacuum degassing and vacuum melting processes in the late 1950s. The development of elastohydrodynamic (EHD) theory showed that most rolling bearings and gears have a thin film separating the contacting bodies during motion and it is that film which affects their lives. Computer programs modeling bearing and gear dynamics that incorporate probabilistic life prediction methods and EHD theory enable optimization of rotating machinery based on life and reliability. With improved manufacturing and processing, the potential improvement in bearing and gear life can be as much as 80 times that attainable in the early 1950s. The work presented summarizes the use of laboratory fatigue data for bearings and gears coupled with probabilistic life prediction and EHD theories to predict the life and reliability of a commercial turboprop gearbox. The resulting predictions are compared with field data.

Zaretsky, Erwin V.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Dynamic Probabilistic Instability of Composite Structures

A computationally effective method is described to evaluate the non-deterministic dynamic instability (probabilistic dynamic buckling) of thin composite shells. The method is a judicious combination of available computer codes for finite element, composite mechanics and probabilistic structural analysis. The solution method is incrementally updated Lagrangian. It is illustrated by applying it to thin composite cylindrical shell subjected to dynamic loads. Both deterministic and probabilistic buckling loads are evaluated to demonstrate the effectiveness of the method. A universal plot is obtained for the specific shell that can be used to approximate buckling loads for different load rates and different probability levels. Results from this plot show that the faster the rate, the higher the buckling load and the shorter the time. The lower the probability, the lower is the buckling load for a specific time. Probabilistic sensitivity results show that the ply thickness, the fiber volume ratio and the fiber longitudinal modulus, dynamic load and loading rate are the dominant uncertainties in that order.

Chamis, Christos C.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Investigation of the Use of Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Methodologies for Identifying Digital I&C System Common Cause Failures

Digital Instrumentation and Control (I&C) systems have a key role in nuclear power plants in the upgrade of aging analog systems. Digital systems improve plant safety and reliability through features such as increased hardware reliability and stability and improved failure detection capability. There is no consensus on which of the current probabilistic risk assessment methods are most suitable for use in the reliability analysis of digital I&C systems. While the traditional event-tree/fault-tree (ET/FT) approach is still used for their reliability modeling, there are concerns regarding this approach in properly accounting for dynamic interactions among system components since potentially significant dependencies among failure events may not be identified and/or their likelihood may not be properly quantified. Dynamic methodologies are expected to provide a much more accurate representation of probabilistic evolution of the I&C systems in time due to their capability to more properly account for complex interactions than the static approach. The applicability of dynamic PRA methodologies for digital I&C system is investigated using the criteria presented in the NUREG/CR-6901, and the comparisons made in NUREG/CR-6901 are updated in light of the latest studies. The Dynamic Event Tree (DET) approach has been identified as one of the top dynamic methods when evaluated against the requirements for the reliability modeling of digital I&C systems. The DET method is a strong candidate for integration into existing PRA studies, as it bears many similarities to the traditional ET approach. In this study, the DET approach has been applied to the Plant Protection System of the APR1400 design, and the results are compared to results from its available traditional ET/FT analysis. Possible approaches to evaluate and quantify the effects of common cause failures on system safety using dynamic methods are also examined.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2023

Dynamic probabilistic risk assessment for electric grid cybersecurity

Electric grid cybersecurity risk has become a significant concern of industries and governments. This paper proposes a dynamic probabilistic risk assessment method for electric grid cybersecurity risk analysis. The proposed method helps reduce the reliance on expert judgment, capture a broad range of components and system dynamics, and model the interactions between various contributing entities (e.g., attacker, operator). In addition, the scenarios with multiple events, such as the occurrence of both cyberattacks and failures of physical components, the occurrence of both cyberattacks and operators’ (in)correct reactions, are considered and analyzed. Further, for each cyberattack scenario, Monte Carlo simulations are used to obtain possible sequences of the system's evolution under study and then derive risk estimates. As an application of the proposed method, the risk assessment method serves as the basis of risk-informed defense resource allocation to improve electric grid cybersecurity. The proposed method is verified using the IEEE 14-bus system by evaluating different security resource allocations for selected cyberattack scenarios.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS1997

Fatigue Reliability of Gas Turbine Engine Structures

The results of an investigation are described for fatigue reliability in engine structures. The description consists of two parts. Part 1 is for method development. Part 2 is a specific case study. In Part 1, the essential concepts and practical approaches to damage tolerance design in the gas turbine industry are summarized. These have evolved over the years in response to flight safety certification requirements. The effect of Non-Destructive Evaluation (NDE) methods on these methods is also reviewed. Assessment methods based on probabilistic fracture mechanics, with regard to both crack initiation and crack growth, are outlined. Limit state modeling techniques from structural reliability theory are shown to be appropriate for application to this problem, for both individual failure mode and system-level assessment. In Part 2, the results of a case study for the high pressure turbine of a turboprop engine are described. The response surface approach is used to construct a fatigue performance function. This performance function is used with the First Order Reliability Method (FORM) to determine the probability of failure and the sensitivity of the fatigue life to the engine parameters for the first stage disk rim of the two stage turbine. A hybrid combination of regression and Monte Carlo simulation is to use incorporate time dependent random variables. System reliability is used to determine the system probability of failure, and the sensitivity of the system fatigue life to the engine parameters of the high pressure turbine. 'ne variation in the primary hot gas and secondary cooling air, the uncertainty of the complex mission loading, and the scatter in the material data are considered.

Cruse, Thomas A.↗
NASA NTRS2018

A Prognostic Launch Vehicle Probability of Failure Assessment Methodology for Conceptual Systems Predicated on Human Causal Factors

Lessons learned from past failures of launch vehicle developments and operations were used to create a new method to predict the probability of failure of conceptual systems. Existing methods such as Probabilistic Risk Assessments and Human Risk Assessments were considered but found to be too cumbersome for this type of system-wide application for yet-to-be-flown vehicles. The basis for this methodology were historic databases of past failures, where it was determined that various faulty human-interactions were the predominant root causes of failure rather than deficient component reliabilities evaluated through statistical analysis. This methodology contains an expert scoring part which can be used in either a qualitative or a quantitative mode. The method produces two products: a numerical score of the probability of failure and guidance to program management on critical areas in need of increased focus to improve the probability of success. In order to evaluate the effectiveness of this new method, data from a concluded vehicle program (USAF's Titan IV with the Centaur G-Prime upper stage) was used as a test case. The theoretical vs. actual probability of failure was found to be 4.46% vs. 6.67% respectively. Recommendations are made for future applications of this method to ongoing launch vehicle development programs.

Launch Vehicle↗
NASA NTRS2019

Prognostic Launch Vehicle Probability of Failure Assessment Methodology for Conceptual Systems Predicated on Human Causal Factors

Lessons learned from past failures of launch vehicle developments and operations were used to create a new method to predict the probability of failure of conceptual systems. Existing methods such as Probabilistic Risk Assessments and Human Risk Assessments were considered but found to be too cumbersome for this type of system-wide application for yet-to-be-flown vehicles. The basis for this methodology were historic databases of past failures, where it was determined that various faulty human-interactions were the predominant root causes of failure rather than deficient component reliabilities evaluated through statistical analysis. This methodology contains an expert scoring part which can be used in either a qualitative or a quantitative mode. The method produces two products: a numerical score of the probability of failure or guidance to program management on critical areas in need of increased focus to improve the probability of success. In order to evaluate the effectiveness of this new method, data from a concluded vehicle program (USAF's Titan IV with the Centaur G-Prime upper stage) was used as a test case. Although the theoretical vs. actual probability of failure was found to be in reasonable agreement (4.46% vs. 6.67% respectively) the underlying sub-root cause scoring had significant disparities attributable to significant organizational changes and acquisitions. Recommendations are made for future applications of this method to ongoing launch vehicle development programs.

Craig H Williams↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Data-Driven Nonparametric Approach for Probabilistic Load-Margin Assessment Considering Wind Power Penetration

A modern power system is characterized by an increasing penetration of wind power, which results in large uncertainties in its states. These uncertainties must be quantified properly; otherwise, the system security may be threatened. Facing this challenge, here we propose a cost-effective, data-driven approach to assessing a power system's load margin probabilistically. Using actual wind data, a kernel density estimator is applied to infer the nonparametric wind speed distributions, which are further merged into the framework of a vine copula. The latter enables us to simulate complex multivariate and highly dependent model inputs with a variety of bivariate copulae that precisely represent the tail dependence in the correlated samples. Furthermore, to reduce the prohibitive computational time of traditional Monte-Carlo simulations that process a large amount of samples, we propose to use a nonparametric, Gaussian-process-emulator-based reduced-order model to replace the original complicated continuation power-flow model through a Bayesian-learning framework. To accelerate the convergence rate of this Bayesian algorithm, a truncated polynomial chaos surrogate, which serves as a highly efficient, parametric Bayesian prior, is developed. This emulator allows us to execute the time-consuming continuation power-flow solver at the sampled values with a negligible computational cost. Results of simulations that are performed on several test systems reveal the impressive performance of the proposed method in the probabilistic load-margin assessment.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Size Effect of Local Current-Voltage Characteristics of MX 2 Nanoflakes: Local Density of States Reconstruction from Scanning Tunneling Microscopy Experiments

Local current-voltage characteristics for low-dimensional transition-metal dichalcogenides (LDTMD), as well as the reconstruction of their local density of states (LDOS) from scanning tunneling microscopy (STM) experiments, are of fundamental interest and can be useful for advanced applications. Most of the existing models either have limited applicability for complex-shaped LDTMDs (e.g., those based on the Simmons approach) or require solving of an ill-defined integral equation to deconvolute the unknown LDOS (e.g., those based on the Tersoff approach). Using a serial expansion of the Tersoff formulas, we propose a flexible method to reconstruct the LDOS from local current-voltage characteristics measured in STM experiments. We establish a set of key physical parameters, which characterize the tunneling current of a STM-probe–sample contact and the sample LDOS expanded in Gaussian functions. Using a direct variational method coupled with probabilistic analysis, we determine these parameters from the STM experiments for MoS2 nanoflakes with different numbers of layers. The main result is the reconstruction of the LDOS in a relatively wide energy range around the Fermi level, which allows us to gain insight into the local band structure of LDTMDs. The reconstructed LDOS reveal pronounced size effects for the single-layer, two-layer, and three-layer MoS 2 nanoflakes, which we relate to the low dimensionality and strong bending or corrugation of the nanoflakes. We hope that the proposed elaboration of the Tersoff approach, allowing LDOS reconstruction, will be of critical interest for the quantitative description of STM experiments and also of use to better understand the microscopic physical aspects of the surface, strain, and bending contributions to the LDTMDs’ electronic properties.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Survey of Cyber Risk Analysis Techniques for Use in the Nuclear Industry

Using traditional probabilistic risk analysis methods for severe accident safety risk management on non-digital systems, structures, and components at nuclear power plants is well-established. In contrast, cyber risk analysis of digital assets is still an immature field with unproven techniques due, in part, to the continuously changing threat environment and the challenge of digital assets failing in unexpected ways. As the nuclear fleet continues to adopt digital instrumentation and control systems, it is increasingly important to have effective and efficient cyber risk analysis techniques to support risk management decisions, such as risk elimination by system redesign or risk mitigation by implementation of prioritized security controls. To understand the state of the art in cyber risk analysis for future research, we surveyed 36 publications across ten application domains. We describe our survey methodology and rate each technique based upon scope, adoptability, and repeatability. In this work, we examine the unique constraints of the nuclear industry and outline the strengths and weaknesses of using the cyber risk analysis techniques in the industry, highlighting gaps with current techniques. We also discuss challenges and potential research directions for advancing the science for both existing and new advanced reactors.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Automated experimental design of safe rampdowns via probabilistic machine learning

Abstract Typically the rampdown phase of a shot consists of a decrease in current and injected power and optionally a change in shape, but there is considerable flexibility in the rate, sequencing, and duration of these changes. On the next generation of tokamaks it is essential that this is done safely as the device could be damaged by the stored thermal and electromagnetic energy present in the plasma. This works presents a procedure for automatically choosing experimental rampdown designs to rapidly converge to an effective rampdown trajectory. This procedure uses probabilistic machine learning methods paired with acquisition functions taken from Bayesian optimization. In a set of 2022 experiments at DIII-D, the rampdown designs produced by our method maintained plasma control down to substantially lower current and energy levels than are typically observed. The actions predicted by the model significantly improved as the model was able to explore over the course of the experimental campaign.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗