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NASA NTRS2011

Predicting Regional Drought on Sub-Seasonal to Decadal Time Scales

Drought occurs on a wide range of time scales, and within a variety of different types of regional climates. It is driven foremost by an extended period of reduced precipitation, but it is the impacts on such quantities as soil moisture, streamflow and crop yields that are often most important from a users perspective. While recognizing that different users have different needs for drought information, it is nevertheless important to understand that progress in predicting drought and satisfying such user needs, largely hinges on our ability to improve predictions of precipitation. This talk reviews our current understanding of the physical mechanisms that drive precipitation variations on subseasonal to decadal time scales, and the implications for predictability and prediction skill. Examples are given highlighting the phenomena and mechanisms controlling precipitation on monthly (e.g., stationary Rossby waves, soil moisture), seasonal (ENSO) and decadal time scales (PD~ and AMO).

Schubert, Siegfried↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Data-driven Approach for Predicting Nepheline Crystallization in High-Level Waste Glasses

High-level waste (HLW) glasses with high aluminum content are prone to nepheline crystallization during the slow canister cooling that is experienced during large-scale production. Due to its detrimental effects on glass durability, nepheline precipitation must be avoided; however, developing robust, predictive models for nepheline crystallization behavior in HLW glasses is difficult due to their compositional complexity. Using overly conservative constraints to predict nepheline formation can limit the waste loading to lower than the achievable capacity. In this study, a robust data-driven model using five compositional features has been developed to predict nepheline formation. The analysis of the model and the data show that there is an overlap, instead of a distinct compositional boundary, between glasses that form and do not form nepheline. As a result, the model’s predictive accuracy is not the same throughout the feature space and instead is dependent on the location of the glass composition in the dimensionally reduced feature space.

Sargin, Irmak↗

DOE OSTI2020

Crystallographic orientation-dependent strain hardening in a precipitation-strengthened Al-Cu alloy

While the strengthening of Al-Cu alloys due to precipitation has been extensively studied, the effect of crystallographic orientation of the matrix and precipitates, as well as precipitate morphology, on the strain hardening behavior is not well understood. In this paper, we investigate this effect with in situ neutron diffraction during deformation of an Al-Cu alloy (206) after multiple aging treatments. Precipitate-dislocation interactions were found to change from precipitate shearing for microstructures predominantly containing GPI and θ" precipitates to Orowan looping for microstructures with primarily θ' and θ precipitates. Notably, significant anisotropy in strain hardening behavior was observed when θ' precipitates were present, which was attributed to crystallographic orientation dependent load transfer from the Al matrix to the θ' precipitates. The anisotropic load transfer is hypothesized to be caused by the extent of rotation of high aspect-ratio θ' precipitates, owing to dislocations looping around them during plastic deformation of the matrix. Predictions from an analytical model describing the anisotropic magnitude of load transfer from precipitate rotation agree well with experimental results, successfully validating the precipitate rotation hypothesis and explaining the anisotropic strain hardening behavior. This model allows for the prediction of stresses separately in the precipitate and matrix phases as a function of crystallographic orientation, only given the bulk mechanical properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Design of novel refractory equiatomic multi-principal elemental alloys based on Mo-Nb-Ti system for Gen IV reactor applications

Excellent irradiation damage resistance demonstrated by multi-principal elemental alloys (MPEAs) has sparked significant interest among researchers, prompting exploration into their vast compositional space, to validate their suitability for nuclear applications. A combined approach of thermodynamic and empirical parameters calculations alongside CALPHAD (CALculation of PHAse Diagrams) for phase formation predictions enable high-throughput material selection for sophisticated applications like nuclear, overcoming laborious and time-consuming experiments. Key thermodynamic and empirical parameters for eight novel equiatomic MPEAs, based on seven low thermal neutron cross section refractory elements, for predicting phase formation were calculated, and equilibrium and non-equilibrium simulations in CALPHAD were employed to comprehensively model the systems. Pseudo binary phase diagram simulations showed that Zr, V or equiatomic CrV additions to the base MoNbTi alloy (MoNbTi-Zr, MoNbTi-V and MoNbTi-CrV alloys) favor the formation of isomorphous body-centered cubic (BCC) phase at high temperatures, while Cr, Al, equiatomic ZrV, or equiatomic CrAl additions (MoNbTi-Cr, MoNbTi-Al, MoNbTi-ZrV or MoNbTi-CrAl alloys) limit the solubility of them. Equilibrium CALPHAD simulations at 750 oC were consistent with XRD results on MoNbTi, MoNbTiZr and MoNbTiCr alloys, and partially for others. Notably, elemental segregation observed in the backscattered electron (BSE) scanning electron microscopy (SEM) images of the alloys was accurately simulated through non-equilibrium Scheil solidification calculations in CALPHAD, further verified by experiments. The precipitation of TiCr2 Laves phase in Cr containing MoNbTiCr and MoNbTiCrAl was accurately predicted while discrepancies were noted in MoNbTiCrV. The equilibrium simulations also provided insights into phase compositions at specific temperatures offering a pathway for tailoring the desired microstructure and properties of these systems. Empirical parameters calculations successfully predicted random solid solution in the base MoNbTi alloy, and with an exception in MoNbTiV and MoNbTiAl, predicted intermetallic precipitation in the rest, especially, Laves phase precipitation in Cr containing alloys.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Impact of a New Cloud Microphysics Parameterization on the Simulations of Mesoscale Convective Systems in E3SM

Abstract Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are one of the most climatically significant forms of convection because of their large role in water and energy cycles. The mesoscale features associated with MCS are difficult to represent in climate models because the relevant dynamics and physics are absent or poorly represented with coarse model resolution (∼100 km). Using a regionally refined model (RRM) with 0.25° grid spacing embedded in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), we explore the impact of cloud microphysics parameterizations on the simulation of precipitation, particularly MCS precipitation over the contiguous United States. The Predicted Particle Properties (P3) cloud microphysics scheme has been modified and implemented into E3SM to overcome the limitations of the default Morrison and Gettelman (MG2) scheme in which rimed precipitating ice particles (graupel/hail) are absent and frozen particles are artificially partitioned into cloud ice and snow. We show that P3 improves the simulation of precipitation statistics including frequency distribution compared with MG2 with a limited effect on the diurnal cycle. P3 predicts higher hourly rain rates, resulting in 20% more MCSs and a higher total MCS precipitation (4.4%) compared to MG2, agreeing better with observations. The improvements with P3 mainly result from improved representations of ice microphysics, which not only produces higher rain rates through melting but also leads to a stronger large‐scale ascending motion by releasing more latent heating. This study suggests that improving microphysics parameterization is important for simulating MCS precipitation as future climate model resolutions continue to increase.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1995

Global precipitation estimates based on a technique for combining satellite-based estimates, rain gauge analysis, and NWP model precipitation information

The 'satellite-gauge model' (SGM) technique is described for combining precipitation estimates from microwave satellite data, infrared satellite data, rain gauge analyses, and numerical weather prediction models into improved estimates of global precipitation. Throughout, monthly estimates on a 2.5 degrees x 2.5 degrees lat-long grid are employed. First, a multisatellite product is developed using a combination of low-orbit microwave and geosynchronous-orbit infrared data in the latitude range 40 degrees N - 40 degrees S (the adjusted geosynchronous precipitation index) and low-orbit microwave data alone at higher latitudes. Then the rain gauge analysis is brougth in, weighting each field by its inverse relative error variance to produce a nearly global, observationally based precipitation estimate. To produce a complete global estimate, the numerical model results are used to fill data voids in the combined satellite-gauge estimate. Our sequential approach to combining estimates allows a user to select the multisatellite estimate, the satellite-gauge estimate, or the full SGM estimate (observationally based estimates plus the model information). The primary limitation in the method is imperfections in the estimation of relative error for the individual fields. The SGM results for one year of data (July 1987 to June 1988) show important differences from the individual estimates, including model estimates as well as climatological estimates. In general, the SGM results are drier in the subtropics than the model and climatological results, reflecting the relatively dry microwave estimates that dominate the SGM in oceanic regions.

Huffman, George J.↗

DOE OSTI2023

The effects of mixed-species root zones on the resistance of soil bacteria and fungi to long-term experimental and natural reductions in soil moisture

Mixed forest stands tend to be more resistant to drought than species-specific stands partially due to complementarity in root ecology and physiology. For this work, we asked whether complementary differences in the drought resistance of soil microbiomes might contribute to this phenomenon. We experimented on the effects of reduced soil moisture on bacterial and fungal community composition in species-specific (single species) and mixed-species root zones of Norway spruce and European beech forests in a 5-year-old throughfall-exclusion experiment and across seasonal (spring-summer-fall) and latitudinal moisture gradients. Bacteria were most responsive to changes in soil moisture, especially members of Rhizobiales, while fungi were largely unaffected, including ectomycorrhizal fungi (EMF). Community resistance was higher in spruce relative to beech root zones, corresponding with the proportions of drought-favored (more in spruce) and drought-sensitive bacterial taxa (more in beech). The spruce soil microbiome also exhibited greater resistance to seasonal changes between spring (wettest) and fall (driest). Mixed-species root zones contained a hybrid of beech- and spruce-associated microbiomes. Several bacterial populations exhibited either enhanced resistance or greater susceptibility to drought in mixed root zones. Overall, patterns in the relative abundances of soil bacteria closely tracked moisture in seasonal and latitudinal precipitation gradients and were more predictive of soil water content than other environmental variables. We conclude that complementary differences in the drought resistance of soil microbiomes can occur and the likeliest form of complementarity in mixed-root zones coincides with the enrichment of drought-tolerant bacteria associated with spruce and the sustenance of EMF by beech.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Annual Herbaceous Plants Exhibit Altered Morphological Traits in Response to Altered Precipitation and Drought Patterns in Semiarid Sandy Grassland, Northern China

The frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events and severe drought are predicted to increase in semiarid areas due to global climate change. Plant morphological traits can reflect plant responses to a changing environment, such as altered precipitation or drought patterns. In this study, we examined the response of morphological traits of root, stem, leaf and reproduction meristems of annual herbaceous species to altered precipitation and drought patterns in a semiarid sandy grassland. The study involved a control treatment (100% of background precipitation) and the following six altered precipitation treatments: (1) P(+): precipitation increased by 30%, (2) P(++): precipitation increased by 60%, (3) P(-): precipitation decreased by 30%, (4) P(--): precipitation decreased by 60%, (5) drought 1 (D1): 46-day drought from May 1st to June 15th, and (6) drought 2 (D2): 46-day drought from July 1st to August 15th. P(++) significantly increased root length, flower length-to-width ratio, both P(+) and P(++) significantly increased stem length and flower number in the plant growing seasons, while all of them decreased under P(-) and P(--). The annual herbaceous plants marginally increased the number of second-level stem branches and stem diameter in order to better resist the severe drought stress under P(--). P(+) and P(++) increased the root, stem, leaf, and flower dry weight, with the flower dry weight accounting for a larger proportion than the other aboveground parts. Under D2, the plants used the limited water resources more efficiently by increasing the root-to-shoot ratio compared with P(-), P(--) and D1, which reflects biomass allocation to belowground increased. The linear mixed-effects models and redundancy analysis showed that the root-to-shoot ratio and the dry weight of various plant components were significantly affected by morphological traits and altered precipitation magnitude. Our results showed that the herbaceous species have evolved morphological trait responses that allow them to adapt to climate change. Such differences in morphological traits may ultimately affect the growing patterns of annual herbaceous species, enhancing their drought-tolerant capacity in semiarid sandy grassland during the ongoing climate change.

Sun, Shan-Shan↗

NASA NTRS1994

Drift shells and aurora computed using the O8 magnetic field model for Neptune

Charged particle drift shells are calculated using the O8 magnetic field model for Neptune. Inner drift shell morphologies differ significantly from dipolar drift shells for the parts of drift shells inward of r = 2 R(sub N). Outer drift shells (L approx. greater than 10), when traced down to Neptune's surface following magnetic field lines, are simple closed loops around magnetic poles. Inner drift shells (L approx. less than 4), on the other hand, when traced to the surface, are also single loops but stretched in a previously unknown way: sometimes with a cusp and sometimes into two joined loops. Inner drift shell footprints on R = 1 provide the basis for identifying precipitation L shells, interpreting observed aurora, and predicting additional emissions on that part of Neptune's surface unobserved by the Ultraviolet Spectrometer (UVS). Precipitation in a global magnetic anomaly, `ordinary' auroral precipitation near the south magnetic pole, and precipitation from field lines with no magnetic field minimum above Neptune's exobase collectively appear to account for all of the observed auroral emission regions at Neptune. To the extent that aurora can be understood in this model, it is suggested O8 may be reasonably accurate.

Paranicas, C.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Enhancing Autonomous Satellite Communication Systems with Weather-Aware Scheduling and Reconfiguration

NASA currently provides communication support to over 100 satellite missions, and the agency is driving developments in Ka-band communications and network management automation to support additional future missions. At Ka-band frequencies, rain can degrade a communication link by more than 10 dB, which may be mitigated by agile scheduling and data rate control. We present a weather forecasting module for Ka-band communications that is intended to be used in an autonomous network management service that employs machine-to-machine scheduling systems for dynamic user access opportunities. Our forecasting module (NIMBUS) runs on AWS Cloud, consumes the freely and publicly available NOAA MRMS precipitation rate dataset (1km x 1km x 2-min), produces 30-minute Nowcasts using the pySTEPS algorithm, and publishes high level ground station specific link quality predictions. We evaluate two potential NIMBUS outputs, a binary classifier that predicts rain attenuation greater than 3 dB and a rain attenuation estimator, and we backtest these outputs using one year of power measurement data collected from observations of the geostationary ANIK F2 satellite’s Ka-band beacon. We report, with a 30-minute lead time, a binary classifier accuracy of 84% and an estimator RMSE of 1.67 dB. Additionally, we discuss how the NIMBUS module could be incorporated into a user-initiated service framework to enable weather-aware scheduling and reconfiguration. Operating a static link budget with minimal link margin can increase network operation costs by creating additional scheduling tasks due to failed packets, which may require human intervention and/or lead to inefficient asset utilization. The proposed system aims to increase throughput by reducing link margin, while mitigating increases in network operations costs by leveraging autonomous machine-to-machine scheduling, shortened prediction lead times, and advances in precipitation Nowcasting.

satellite communications↗

DOE OSTI2021

In Situ Inference for Earth System Predictability

An understanding of future evolution in precipitation extremes is critical to numerous DOE mission questions. Extreme events are by nature short time-scale events that are difficult to diagnose in available model data. Accurate modeling of extreme events necessarily requires high spatial resolution at the storm scale locally. However, the environment in which storms grow is dependent on global, remote, processes. These complex spatiotemporal relationships are impossible to diagnose at resolutions required to accurately model storms responsible for extreme precipitation. At exascale, climate simulations will produce results at fine enough resolution to investigate these relationships. However, the resulting data from these simulations will be far too large to save for post-simulation analysis. We advocate for fitting statistical models inside the simulations as they run, a context known as in situ, which will facilitate scientific investigations using the full fine-scale data stream. Figure 1 shows an example of the type of model we could consider, a Bayesian hierarchical spatial regression model. Precipitation extremes at each grid cell are modeled using extreme value distributions. Since extremes are rare, fitting models to individual grid cells can result in high variance and poor estimates. Instead, the model can be made more robust by smoothing the parameters of the extreme value model across space. Additionally, the parameters themselves can be functionally linked to other variables elsewhere in the simulation. Thus, we can use the fine-scale data to build more robust models for extremes that link extreme behavior to other climate patterns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1992

Jovian bremsstrahlung X-rays - A Ulysses prediction

Modeling results reported here show that precipitating auroral electrons with sufficient energy to be consistent with the Voyager UVS observations produce bremsstrahlung X-rays with sufficient energy and intensity to be detected by the Solar Flare X-ray and Cosmic-Ray-Burst Instrument on board the Ulysses spacecraft. The detection of such bremsstrahlung X-rays at Jupiter would provide strong evidence for the electron-precipitation mechanism, although it does not rule out the possibility of some heavy ion involvement, and thus makes a significant contribution toward solving the mystery of the Jovian aurora.

Waite, J. H., Jr.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainties in Local Intense Precipitation Flood Modeling

In the Task 1 report for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) funded Local Intense Precipitation (LIP) Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment (PFHA) Pilot Study, the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) reviewed hydrologic and hydraulic modeling approaches for estimation of LIP flooding and their implementation in readily available simulation software packages (Prasad and Yuan 2020). NRC’s interest is in developing guidance for performing LIP PFHA at nuclear power plant (NPP) sites. This report describes the work done under Task 2 of the study that focused on describing uncertainties associated with LIP flood modeling. Two main types of uncertainties exist in LIP flood modeling: (1) aleatory uncertainties that arise from the inherent natural variability of the hydrometeorological system and (2) epistemic uncertainties that arise from the analysts’ incomplete knowledge of the hydrometeorological and site configuration. Principal sources for aleatory variability in LIP flood simulations at NPP sites include precipitation (i.e., magnitude, duration, and temporal distribution of LIP events), initial conditions (e.g., soil moisture content, stormwater drainage discharge, surface storage), boundary conditions (e.g., upstream discharge, downstream water surface elevations), and long-term temporal trends (e.g., climate change). This report describes approaches used for estimating the aleatory variability in precipitation including precipitation-frequency analysis, numerical weather prediction, and stochastic weather generation. Data sources that can be used to estimate aleatory variability in initial and boundary conditions are also described. Approaches to include effects of long-term trends like those from climate change into estimation of aleatory variability are summarized. Sources of epistemic uncertainty in LIP flood simulations at NPP sites include process representation (e.g., multiple approaches to represent runoff generation, stormwater drainage, and hydraulic routing), site configurations (e.g., site layout, flow features, status of temporary flood protection, blockage of drains), model resolution, and long-term temporal trends (e.g., known/planned site alterations, land-use changes at and in the vicinity of the site). The report describes alternative process representations (methods and models), particularly those implemented in the LIP flood simulation software packages reviewed in Task 1 report, and lists the associated model parameters. Approaches for estimating model parameters when surface and subsurface water exchanges occur are also described.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS1990

The effects of van der Waals attractions on cloud droplet growth by coalescence

The inclusion of van der Waals attractions in the interaction between cloud droplets has been recently shown to significantly increase the collision efficiencies of the smaller droplets. In the current work, these larger values for the collision efficiencies are used in a population dynamics model of the droplet size distribution evolution with time, in hopes of at least partially resolving the long-standing paradox in cloud microphysics that predicted rates of the onset of precipitation are generally much lower than those which are observed. Evolutions of several initial cloud droplet spectra have been tracked in time. Size evolutions are compared as predicted from the use of collision efficiencies computed using two different models to allow for droplet-droplet contact: one which considers slip flow effects only, and one which considers the combined effects of van der Waals forces and slip flow. The rate at which the droplet mass density function shifts to larger droplet sizes is increased by typically 20-25 percent, when collision efficiencies which include van der Waals forces are used.

Rogers, Jan R.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Automated Operational Forecasting of Monsoon Low Pressure Systems

Monsoon low pressure systems (LPSs) are the dominant rain-bearing weather system of South Asia, often producing extreme precipitation and hydrological disasters in a region inhabited by nearly two billion people. Despite the importance of these storms, no operational system has automatically identified and tracked LPS in real time in numerical weather prediction model output; many commonly used vortex-tracking algorithms are ill suited for monsoon LPS because of the weak winds and cold cores of these systems. Here, we describe a new system that uses optimized algorithms to identify monsoon LPS in short- to medium-range forecasts from the U.S. Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) and a version of the deterministic Global Forecast System (GFS) adapted and used operationally by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM). We also assess the historical performance of these models in forecasting South Asian monsoon LPS, comparing this with the performance of the Integrated Forecasting System of the ECMWF. We assess the accuracy of model predictions of LPS genesis, position, intensity, and precipitation rates for forecast lead times of 1–5 days, yielding quantitative information on model biases to guide operational forecasters and disaster managers. The system we introduce here could be extended to other low-latitude regions affected by dynamically weak, heavily precipitating atmospheric vortices that are often not included in tropical cyclone inventories.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Simulated tree recruitment at PA-BCI under four precipitation scenarios

Simulated recruitment rates are provided for four tropical tree plant functional types (PFTs) which vary in drought and shade tolerance, at Barro Colorado Island, Panama (PA-BCI). Recruitment rates are predicted using the Tree Recruitment Scheme (TRS; Hanbury-Brown et al., 2022) and model data output from the Ecosystem Demography model version 2 with hydrodynamics (ED2; Medvigy et al., 2009, Powell et al., 2018). Predictions of recruitment are provided under four precipitation scenarios: “BASE” = recycled 2008-2014 observed meteorology (Faybishenko & Paton, 2021), “SYN-ENSO” = two exceptionally strong El Niño events within 30 years (Powell et al., 2018), “WET” = 30% increase in precipitation compared to BASE, and DRY-DS = dry season (January–April) precipitation reduced by 75% compared to BASE. In addition to recruitment rates, this dataset provides TRS predictions of PFT-specific seed bank and seedling pool dynamics (tracked in units of carbon) and ED predictions of understory photosynthetically active radiation and soil matric potential at 6 cm soil depth.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1983

Quiet-time electron precipitation at L = 4 in the South Atlantic anomaly

A Superarcas sounding rocket was launched from Siple Station, Antarctica in January 1978, during a prolonged geomagnetically quiet period with very low VLF activity. The observed electron flux is the first direct measurement in the high latitude mesosphere of the quiet-time precipitating electrons in the South Atlantic anomaly. The integrated flux agrees resonably well with satellite measurements and predictions. The calculated energy spectrum of the precipitating electrons is much softer than typical measured quiet-time trapped spectra reported from satellite measurements after extended periods of low magnetic activity.

Benbrook, J. R.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Variations in northeast Asian summer precipitation driven by the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation

By analysing a 113–year (1900–2012) observational dataset, it is shown in this work that the interdecadal fluctuation of the summer precipitation over Northeast Asia differs from that in central East Asia during the 20th century, and has experienced three interdecadal shifts in the 1920s, mid-1960s and late 1990s. That fluctuation coincides well with the multidecadal fluctuation of the sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic, known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The AMO affects Northeast Asia via a circumglobal teleconnection pattern extending from the North Atlantic to North America. Corresponding with the positive phase of this teleconnection pattern, a tripolar pattern emerges in the Asian–North Pacific sector, with anomalous low pressure over Northeast Asia and high pressure over Lake Baikal and the mid-latitude western North Pacific. These results suggest that the positive phase of the AMO favours the occurrence of cold vortex over Northeast Asia and anomalous highs over Lake Baikal and the mid-latitude western North Pacific in summer, which enhances the East Asian summer monsoon and southward intrusion of high-latitude cold air, and eventually increases the summer precipitation in Northeast Asia. Furthermore, initialized decadal prediction simulations using the CCSM4 model reproduce well the observed variations of the AMO and its associated atmospheric teleconnection but with slightly shifted geographic locations. The simulated anomalous Northeast Asia cold vortex and strong East Asian summer monsoon, lead to above-normal summer precipitation over Northeast Asia. The modelling results confirm that the multidecadal variability in the North Atlantic can cause the observed interdecadal variations of Northeast Asia summer precipitation. Our results suggest that to understand and predict interdecadal climate change over Northeast Asia, it is important to consider the key role of the AMO.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗