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At least 289 records · Page 16

Amplitude of primeval fluctuations from cosmological mass density reconstructions

We use the POTENT reconstruction of the mass density field in the nearby universe to estimate the amplitude of the density fluctuation power spectrum for various cosmological models. We find that sigma(sub 8) Omega(sub m sup 0.6) = 1.3(sub -0.3 sup +0.4), almost independently of the power spectrum. This value agrees well with the Cosmic Background Explorer (COBE) normalization for the standard cold dark matter model, while alternative models predict an excessive amplitude compared with COBE. Flat, low Omega(sub m) models and tilted models with spectral index n less than 0.8 are particularly discordant.

Seljak, Uros↗

Measurement of Arcminute Scale Cosmic Microwave Background Anisotropy with the BIMA Array

We report the results of our continued study of arcminute scale anisotropy in the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) with the Berkeley-Illinois-Maryland Association (BIMA) array. The survey consists of ten independent fields selected for low infrared dust emission and lack of bright radio point sources. With observations from the VLA (Very Large Array) at 4.8 GHz, we have identified point sources which could act as contaminants in estimates of the CMB power spectrum and removed them in the analysis. Modeling the observed power spectrum with a single. flat band power with average multipole of l(sub eff) = 6864, we find Delta T = 14.2((sup +4.8)(sub -6.0)) micro K at 68% confidence. The signal in the visibility data exceeds the expected contribution from instrumental noise with 96.5% confidence. We have also divided the data into two bins corresponding to different spatial resolutions in the power spectrum. We find Delta T(sub 1) = 16.6((sup +5.3)(sub -5.9)) micro K at 68% confidence for CMB flat band power described by an average multipole of l(sub eff) = 5237 and Delta T(sub 2) is less than 26.5 micro K at 95% confidence for l(sub eff) = 8748.

Dawson, K. S.↗

Estimation of plasma properties using an extended Kalman filter with plasma global models

A physically-constrained extended Kalman filter (EKF) is applied to various zero-dimensional global models for the estimation of plasma properties using time-dependent experimental data such as the plasma density or ion flux. The capability of the EKF is demonstrated to estimate unknown system states simultaneously, such as reaction rate coefficients and the absorbed electron input power, which can be difficult, if not impossible, to measure experimentally. Global models accounting for pure argon reactions and argon-oxygen reactions are used in this work to demonstrate the ability of the filter to estimate dynamic and complex systems. Furthermore, the results obtained from the EKF plasma global model illustrate that model-data fusion techniques can be used to estimate plasma properties and processes for time-varying systems, such as pulsed discharges.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Estimation of abatement potentials and costs of air pollution emissions in China

Understanding the air pollution emission abatement potential and associated control cost is a prerequisite to design cost ef?cient control policies. In this study, a linear programming algorithm model, International Control Cost Estimate Tool, was updated with cost data for applications of 56 types of end-of-pipe technologies and ?ve types of renewable energy in 10 major sectors namely power generation, industry combustion, cement pro-duction, iron and steel production, other industry processes, domestic combustion, transportation, solvent use, livestock rearing, and fertilizer use. The updated model was implemented to estimate the abatement potential and marginal cost of multiple pollutants in China. The total maximum abatement potentials of sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), primary particulate matter (PM2.5), non-volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs), and ammonia (NH3) in China were estimated to be 19.2, 20.8, 9.1, 17.2 and 8.6 Mt, respectively, which accounted for 89.7%, 89.9%, 94.6%, 74.0%, and 80.2% of their total emissions in 2014, respectively. The associated control cost of such reductions was estimated as 92.5, 469.7, 75.7, 449.0, and 361.8 billion CNY in SO2, NOx, primary PM2.5, NMVOCs and NH3, respectively. Shandong, Jiangsu, Henan, Zhejiang, and Guangdong provinces exhibited large abatement potentials for all pollutants. Provincial disparity analysis shows that high GDP regions tend to have higher reduction potential and total abatement costs. End-of-pipe technologies tended be a cost-ef?cient way to control pollution in industries processes (i.e., cement plants, iron and steel plants, lime production, building ceramic production, glass and brick production), whereas such technologies were less cost- effective in fossil fuel-related sectors (i.e., power plants, industry combustion, domestic combustion, and transportation) compared with renewable energy. The abatement potentials and marginal abatement cost curves developed in this study can further be used as a crucial component in an integrated model to design optimized cost-ef?cient control policies.

Zhang, Fenfen↗

Current leakage for low altitude satellites

Ionospheric plasma densities exceeding 1,000,000 per cu cm exist around satellites in low earth orbit. Operation of large solar arrays at high voltage may drive substantial leakage currents through this surrounding plasma. Power losses exceeding solar cell output have been observed for small arrays biased above +2,000 V. Estimates of these effects for very large power systems are developed. Recent large scale (10 meter) lab tests are reported. Estimates based on calculations of space charge limited sheath dimensions are identified as a good working model, leading to projected power losses for large arrays increasing much more slowly than for small arrays.

Mccoy, J. E.↗

Transient Efficiency, Flexibility, and Reliability Optimization of Coal-Fired Power Plants - Final Program Review

This program developed an advanced model-based monitoring and model-predictive control algorithms for a coal fired power plant (CFPP), and deployed these algorithms in a real-time platform to demonstrate performance benefits for transient flexibility and plant operation efficiency. More specifically, the objectives were successfully achieved through a combination of (i) developing a high-fidelity transient plant model in Apros, which was used as a high-fidelity plant simulation between $100-50\% TMCR$ where TMCR denotes the turbine maximum continuous rating, i.e., baseload, (ii) developing a very fast physics-based reduced-order model (ROM) of the plant, which ran more than $100\times$ faster than real-time, enabling its use as real-time embedded model for model-based estimation (MBE) and model predictive control (MPC) (iii) implementing a real-time MBE based on ROM using a robust unscented Kalman filter (UKF) to continuously tune the ROM to match the measurements from high-fidelity Apros plant model despite significant plant-model mismatch, and thus, obtain a Digital Twin of the plant (iv) designing and implementing a real-time MPC with dual objectives of transient plant load tracking with high ramp rates and minimizing coal consumption, i.e., improving plant efficiency in the baseload-partload operation range of $100-50\% TMCR$. Each key element above was developed and tested individually, and has been reported in corresponding Topical Reports. Finally, all the individual elements were integrated in an overall closed-loop system, that was successfully tested in desktop Simulink test harness simulations with ROM or high-fidelity model as the plant. Thereafter, the Simulink implementation was used to auto-generate C-code and deploy as real-time Docker microservice containers in Linux, and validate that they can run in real-time in the hardware-in-the loop (HIL) setup and produce the same results as in Simulink. The results of the integrated simulation tests in Simulink as well as the real-time HIL deployment are documented in this final report, showing good load tracking for load ramps at $3-4\%/min$ ramp rates, and achieving up to $5.5\%$ reduction in coal relative to baseline operation at $50\% TMCR$ load. The desktop and HIL simulations show successful performance of the overall model based estimation and control solution and achieve the key objectives of the program for flexible, efficient and reliable operation of sub-critical coal fired power plants.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Tidal Resource Gaps Analysis Technical Report

The tidal resource gaps project was created to address a growing body of evidence that models underpredict tidal current speeds compared to measurements at a number of the top-ranking tidal energy sites. In response, this project compared opportunistic tidal power density measurements from 16 tidal energy hot spot sites with estimates from resource assessment data to identify discrepancies. To improve the accuracy of resource estimates from model data, updated data from eight improved model simulations were obtained. Model improvements included grid refinement, domain coupling, and the use of unstructured or nested grids. New resource estimates were calculated from the updated models, and these data were used to update the tidal hot spots-a list of promising tidal energy sites around the United States.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Assessing the Costs of Hydropower at Non-Powered Dams Using a Reference Site Model

Hydropower capacity in the United States currently stands at approximately 103 GW, and there are remaining water resources that could help meet the rapidly increasing demand for electricity and ancillary grid services. Existing dams that do not generate power, known as non-powered dams, are a near-term solution to enhance the contribution of hydropower to the US power grid. However, there are thousands of such sites, and the lack of detailed information about their specific characteristics and associated costs presents significant challenges for stakeholders. This study addresses these challenges by developing a reference site model to evaluate the potential costs of hydropower at non-powered dams using currently available technologies. An application of the model reveals a wide range of estimates for capacity, capital costs, levelized cost of electricity, and cost components. While many sites are competitive with current technologies, the majority would need cost-reducing innovations to be viable. Despite the limited available information, the model offers valuable insights into the relative competitiveness of hydropower projects at non-powered dams. The simulation results highlight the need for continued technological advancements in hydropower and provide a basis for evaluating the benefits of new innovations.

cost drivers↗

Battery Evaluation Profiles for X-57 and Future Urban Electric Aircraft

Battery energy density is one of the most critical design parameters for sizing all-electric aircraft, however it’s easily overestimated. Establishing the effective, usable energy density is confused by varying degrees of margin needed to account for structural and thermal management between different cell chemistry and pack designs. Therefore, a better methodology is needed to fairly compare emerging battery technologies for electric aircraft. Currently, there is a loss of critical information when vehicle trade studies are performed using “nominal” published cell-level performance metrics. Aircraft power demands rarely match these nominal power profiles, and aircraft designers lack the ability to accurately simulate the battery performance and temperature off-nominally unless the battery chemistry is well established. Conversely, battery suppliers have no generalized reference cases to publish more realistic performance metrics. This can lead to poor assumptions, such as aircraft studies assuming a fixed discharge efficiency of a battery, when in reality the usable energy in a pack is dependent on the power and thermal profile. Information needed to properly assess weight penalties for thermal management is also typically poorly characterized when assessing candidate batteries. This paper serves to better inform battery development, and similarly, provide aircraft designers with more realistic assumptions for applying knockdown margins in their designs. Detailed power and thermal performance estimates are provided, which provide a starting point for sizing power and thermal budgets using experimentally derived battery models. Results show that the X-57 battery-to-shaft efficiency is 77.3% for a particular optimized mission. Considering a 25% reserve on the battery capacity, this means that only roughly half of the original 55.3kWh ‘nominal’ pack energy can be converted to useful work during a mission. Further estimates on a clean-sheet VTOL optimization show an average 82.7% battery-to-shaft efficiency, using 98% peak efficiency inverters and 97.4% peak efficiency motors. Although higher battery efficiencies are possible, the resulting weight penalty negates improvement in vehicle performance. These trade-offs and resulting power profiles are provided as a starting point to better assess future battery designs.

Battery Electric Aircraft↗

Battery Evaluation Profiles for X-57 and Future Urban Electric Aircraft

Battery energy density is one of the most critical design parameters for sizing all-electric aircraft, however it’s easily overestimated. Establishing the effective, usable energy density is confused by varying degrees of margin needed to account for structural and thermal management between different cell chemistry and pack designs. Therefore, a better methodology is needed to fairly compare emerging battery technologies for electric aircraft. Currently, there is a loss of critical information when vehicle trade studies are performed using “nominal” published cell-level performance metrics. Aircraft power demands rarely match these nominal power profiles, and aircraft designers lack the ability to accurately simulate the battery performance and temperature off-nominally unless the battery chemistry is well established. Conversely, battery suppliers have no generalized reference cases to publish more realistic performance metrics. This can lead to poor assumptions, such as aircraft studies assuming a fixed discharge efficiency of a battery, when in reality the usable energy in a pack is dependent on the power and thermal profile. Information needed to properly assess weight penalties for thermal management is also typically poorly characterized when assessing candidate batteries. This paper serves to better inform battery development, and similarly, provide aircraft designers with more realistic assumptions for applying knockdown margins in their designs. Detailed power and thermal performance estimates are provided, which provide a starting point for sizing power and thermal budgets using experimentally derived battery models. Results show that the X-57 battery-to-shaft efficiency is 77.3% for a particular optimized mission. Considering a 25% reserve on the battery capacity, this means that only roughly half of the original 55.3kWh ‘nominal’ pack energy can be converted to useful work during a mission. Further estimates on a clean-sheet VTOL optimization show an average 82.7% battery-to-shaft efficiency, using 98% peak efficiency inverters and 97.4% peak efficiency motors. Although higher battery efficiencies are possible, the resulting weight penalty negates improvement in vehicle performance. These trade-offs and resulting power profiles are provided as a starting point to better assess future battery designs.

Battery↗

Dynamic consensus and extended high gain observers as a tool to achieve practical frequency synchronization in power systems under unknown time-varying power demand

In this paper, we consider the frequency synchronization problem in a network of lossless, connected, and network-reduced power system. Frequency synchronization is an important problem in power systems as frequency deviation can lead to degraded power quality, tripping of generators, etc. We present a load-estimator-based consensus algorithm in a network of fourth-order generator models that achieves practical frequency synchronization in the presence of unknown time-varying power demand. We do not assume that the demand is generated by a known model. We follow a multiple time-scale approach for the stability analysis. It is shown that synchronization is achieved for the case of constant power demand, by showing that the system is exponentially stable. Furthermore, for the case of time-varying power demand, we show the error trajectories are ultimately bounded, and the synchronization error is proportional to an upper bound on the derivative of the time-varying power demand. We simulate the controller performance on a four area network which is equivalent to the IEEE New England 39-Bus system.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Plasma production and ion heating systems for the Material Plasma Exposure eXperiment

Plasma production and ion heating in the Material Plasma Exposure eXperiment (MPEX), whose design is nearing completion, is accomplished using continuous wave RF power with average power density up to 1.6 MW/m2 at the plasma interface. Plasma is produced using helicon waves coupled through a single helical antenna at 13.56 MHz with power supplied by three 100 kW fixed-frequency RF generators feeding a power combiner network followed by the matching network and launcher. The helicon source can utilize various gasses including hydrogen, deuterium, and helium, with a magnetic field strength in the source region up to 0.2 T, and maximum device |B| of 2.5 T. Power is coupled to ions via ion cyclotron heating at the fundamental resonance using a pair of phased helical antennas operating in the frequency range 4-9 MHz, that launch waves towards the resonance from the antenna region where ω > ωci. ICH power is supplied by a single 500 kW tunable RF transmitter through a 90° power splitter and matching/decoupling network. In the case of both the helicon and ICH systems the antennas are located external to the vacuum, with power transferred through novel water-cooled coaxial vacuum windows consisting of fused quartz outer cylinders and silicon nitride inner cylinders with forced convection water cooling between them. The antenna enclosures are pressurized with dry air to 3 bar absolute for voltage standoff.Several 3-D COMSOL models have been created to simulate the two systems. A model of the helicon region utilizing a cold plasma dielectric tensor with accurate magnetic field and realistic plasma density profiles has been used to calculate the plasma loading/complex antenna input impedance at the launcher feed for various ne and |B| values, for the purpose of estimating power handling. It also incorporates the geometry of all launcher structures relevant to this determination. A still more detailed model of the launcher together with a lossy dielectric plasma surrogate has been used to determine RF electric field values and power losses in the device components.Similar models have been produced to predict the performance and power handling of the ICH launcher. For this device the impedance matrix of the two-element antenna array is calculated using a warm plasma model, necessary to properly determine the wave propagation and absorption.

Goulding, Richard↗

Performance Evaluation and Loss Modeling of WBG Devices based on a Novel Double-Pulse Test Method for Current Source Inverter

Careful measurements of the power device characteristics are necessary to accurately estimate a power converter's losses and efficiency. The conventional double-pulse test (DPT) circuit is a well-known method to implement this laboratory characterization of power devices and power modules. However, the switching characteristics of a power device depend on the power electronics circuit in which it is connected as well as the power circuit's physical layout, in addition to the device's internal structure. Hence, the conventional DPT circuit configuration, which is tailored for a standard voltage-source inverter (VSI), is not well-suited for a current-source inverter (CSI). This paper demonstrates a previously-proposed CSI-based DPT measurement technique that is appropriate for normal CSI operation. The characteristics of SiC MOSFETs and series-connected SiC Schottky diodes used in a CSI are measured using this improved technique while taking temperature effects into account to yield more accurate loss predictions. The CSI losses, including the switching and conduction losses of SiC MOSFETs and SiC Schottky diodes, have been modeled using this approach. The total CSI losses and efficiency have been estimated based on the CSI DPT results and loss models.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Performance Modeling of a Variable-Geometry Oscillating Surge Wave Energy Converter on a Raised Foundation

This paper analyzes the power capture potential, structural loadings, and costs associated with an oscillating surge wave energy converter (OSWEC) operating on a raised foundation. The raised OSWEC offers opportunities for reduced installation costs, improved energy production, and greater flexibility of deployment when compared with fixed-bottom models. In this investigation, we simulated several different foundation geometries using WEC-Sim to estimate power capture and structural loads. In an effort to maximize power capture, several cases in which flat plates of varying size were attached to the top of the foundation, under and parallel with the OSWEC, were also simulated. These plates were found to enhance power capture by preventing the wave-induced pressure from passing underneath the OSWEC, diverting this pressure toward the OSWEC instead. The OSWEC was simulated in the six Wave Energy Prize sea states, which were chosen as a representative sample of U.S. deployment sites. A first-order estimate of structural costs was calculated using the Wave Energy Prize ACE metric, with the foundation comprised predominantly of steel-reinforced concrete and the OSWEC comprised of A36 steel. Influence of foundation geometry on power capture, structural loadings, and ACE are topics of particular interest. This work has been inspired by advances in large-scale additive manufacturing techniques that have the potential to dramatically reduce the cost of subsea foundations. These advancements may enable cost-effective WEC systems to be deployed on raised foundations.

cost↗

Performance Modeling of a Variable-Geometry Oscillating Surge Wave Energy Converter on a Raised Foundation: Preprint

This paper analyzes the power capture potential, structural loadings, and costs associated with an oscillating surge wave energy converter (OSWEC) operating on a raised foundation. The raised OSWEC offers opportunities for reduced installation costs, improved energy production, and greater flexibility of deployment when compared with bottom-fixed models. In this investigation, several different foundation geometries were simulated using WEC-Sim to estimate power capture and structural loads. In an effort to maximize power capture, several cases in which flat plates of varying size were attached to the top of the foundation, under and parallel with the OSWEC, were also simulated. These plates were found to enhance power capture by preventing the wave induced pressure from passing underneath the OSWEC, diverting this pressure towards the OSWEC instead. The OSWEC was simulated in the six Wave Energy Prize sea states, which were chosen as a representative sample of U.S. deployment sites. A first-order estimate of structural costs was calculated using the Wave Energy Prize ACE metric, with the foundation comprised predominantly of steel-reinforced concrete and the OSWEC comprised of A36 steel. Influence of foundation geometry on power capture, structural loadings, and ACE are topics of particular interest. This work has been inspired by advances in large scale additive manufacturing techniques that have the potential to dramatically reduce the cost of subsea foundations. These advancements may enable cost effective WEC systems to be deployed on raised foundations.

50 EE - Wind and Water Power Program - Water (EE-4↗

Time series modeling of human operator dynamics in manual control tasks

A time-series technique is presented for identifying the dynamic characteristics of the human operator in manual control tasks from relatively short records of experimental data. Control of system excitation signals used in the identification is not required. The approach is a multi-channel identification technique for modeling multi-input/multi-output situations. The method presented includes statistical tests for validity, is designed for digital computation, and yields estimates for the frequency responses of the human operator. A comprehensive relative power analysis may also be performed for validated models. This method is applied to several sets of experimental data; the results are discussed and shown to compare favorably with previous research findings. New results are also presented for a multi-input task that has not been previously modeled to demonstrate the strengths of the method.

Biezad, D. J.↗

Time Series Modeling of Human Operator Dynamics in Manual Control Tasks

A time-series technique is presented for identifying the dynamic characteristics of the human operator in manual control tasks from relatively short records of experimental data. Control of system excitation signals used in the identification is not required. The approach is a multi-channel identification technique for modeling multi-input/multi-output situations. The method presented includes statistical tests for validity, is designed for digital computation, and yields estimates for the frequency response of the human operator. A comprehensive relative power analysis may also be performed for validated models. This method is applied to several sets of experimental data; the results are discussed and shown to compare favorably with previous research findings. New results are also presented for a multi-input task that was previously modeled to demonstrate the strengths of the method.

Biezad, D. J.↗