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A study of the shortest-period planets found with Kepler

We present the results of a survey aimed at discovering and studying transiting planets with orbital periods shorter than one day (ultra-short-period, or USP, planets), using data from the Kepler spacecraft. We computed Fourier transforms of the photometric time series for all 200,000 target stars, and detected transit signals based on the presence of regularly spaced sharp peaks in the Fourier spectrum. We present a list of 106 USP candidates, of which 18 have not previously been described in the literature. This list of candidates increases the number of planet candidates with orbital periods shorter than about six hours from two to seven. In addition, among the objects we studied, there are 26 USP candidates that had been previously reported in the literature which do not pass our various tests. All 106 of our candidates have passed several standard tests to rule out false positives due to eclipsing stellar systems. A low false positive rate is also implied by the relatively high fraction of candidates for which more than one transiting planet signal was detected. By assuming these multi-transit candidates represent coplanar multi-planet systems, we are able to infer that the USP planets are typically accompanied by other planets with periods in the range 1-50 days, in contrast with hot Jupiters which very rarely have companions in that same period range. Another clear pattern is that almost all USP planets are smaller than 2 R {sub ⊕}, possibly because gas giants in very tight orbits would lose their atmospheres by photoevaporation when subject to extremely strong stellar irradiation. Based on our survey statistics, USP planets exist around approximately (0.51 ± 0.07)% of G-dwarf stars, and (0.83 ± 0.18)% of K-dwarf stars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Thermal-orbital coupled tidal heating and habitability of Martian-sized extrasolar planets around M stars

M-type stars are good targets in the search for habitable extrasolar planets. Due to their low effective temperatures, the habitable zone of M stars is very close to the stars themselves. For planets that are close to their stars, tidal heating plays an important role in thermal and orbital evolutions, especially when the planet's orbit has a relatively large eccentricity. Although tidal heating interacts with the thermal state and the orbit of the planet, such coupled calculations for extrasolar planets around M stars have not been conducted. We perform coupled calculations using simple structural and orbital models and analyze the thermal state and habitability of a terrestrial planet. Considering this planet to be Martian-sized, the tide heats up and partially melts the mantle, maintaining an equilibrium state if the mass of the star is less than 0.2 times the mass of the Sun and the initial eccentricity of the orbit is more than 0.2. The reduction of heat dissipation due to the melted mantle allows the planet to stay in the habitable zone for more than 10 Gyr even though the orbital distance is small. The surface heat flux at the equilibrium state is between that of Mars and Io. The thermal state of the planet mainly depends on the initial value of the eccentricity and the mass of the star.

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Optimal survey strategies and predicted planet yields for the Korean microlensing telescope network

The Korean Microlensing Telescope Network (KMTNet) will consist of three 1.6 m telescopes each with a 4 deg{sup 2} field of view (FoV) and will be dedicated to monitoring the Galactic Bulge to detect exoplanets via gravitational microlensing. KMTNet's combination of aperture size, FoV, cadence, and longitudinal coverage will provide a unique opportunity to probe exoplanet demographics in an unbiased way. Here we present simulations that optimize the observing strategy for and predict the planetary yields of KMTNet. We find preferences for four target fields located in the central Bulge and an exposure time of t {sub exp} = 120 s, leading to the detection of ∼2200 microlensing events per year. We estimate the planet detection rates for planets with mass and separation across the ranges 0.1 ≤ M{sub p} /M {sub ⊕} ≤ 1000 and 0.4 ≤ a/AU ≤ 16, respectively. Normalizing these rates to the cool-planet mass function of Cassan et al., we predict KMTNet will be approximately uniformly sensitive to planets with mass 5 ≤ M{sub p} /M {sub ⊕} ≤ 1000 and will detect ∼20 planets per year per dex in mass across that range. For lower-mass planets with mass 0.1 ≤ M{sub p} /M {sub ⊕} < 5, we predict KMTNet will detect ∼10 planets per year. We also compute the yields KMTNet will obtain for free-floating planets (FFPs) and predict KMTNet will detect ∼1 Earth-mass FFP per year, assuming an underlying population of one such planet per star in the Galaxy. Lastly, we investigate the dependence of these detection rates on the number of observatories, the photometric precision limit, and optimistic assumptions regarding seeing, throughput, and flux measurement uncertainties.

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THE STATISTICAL MECHANICS OF PLANET ORBITS

The final “giant-impact” phase of terrestrial planet formation is believed to begin with a large number of planetary “embryos” on nearly circular, coplanar orbits. Mutual gravitational interactions gradually excite their eccentricities until their orbits cross and they collide and merge; through this process the number of surviving bodies declines until the system contains a small number of planets on well-separated, stable orbits. In this paper we explore a simple statistical model for the orbit distribution of planets formed by this process, based on the sheared-sheet approximation and the ansatz that the planets explore uniformly all of the stable region of phase space. The model provides analytic predictions for the distribution of eccentricities and semimajor axis differences, correlations between orbital elements of nearby planets, and the complete N-planet distribution function, in terms of a single parameter, the “dynamical temperature,” that is determined by the planetary masses. The predicted properties are generally consistent with N-body simulations of the giant-impact phase and with the distribution of semimajor axis differences in the Kepler catalog of extrasolar planets. A similar model may apply to the orbits of giant planets if these orbits are determined mainly by dynamical evolution after the planets have formed and the gas disk has disappeared.

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MAGNETIC GAMES BETWEEN A PLANET AND ITS HOST STAR: THE KEY ROLE OF TOPOLOGY

Magnetic interactions between a star and a close-in planet are postulated to be a source of enhanced emissions and to play a role in the secular evolution of the orbital system. Close-in planets generally orbit in the sub-alfvénic region of the stellar wind, which leads to efficient transfers of energy and angular momentum between the star and the planet. We model the magnetic interactions occurring in close-in star–planet systems with three-dimensional, global, compressible magnetohydrodynamic numerical simulations of a planet orbiting in a self-consistent stellar wind. We focus on the cases of magnetized planets and explore three representative magnetic configurations. The Poynting flux originating from the magnetic interactions is an energy source for enhanced emissions in star–planet systems. Our results suggest a simple geometrical explanation for ubiquitous on/off enhanced emissions associated with close-in planets, and confirm that the Poynting fluxes can reach powers of the order of 10{sup 19} W. Close-in planets are also shown to migrate due to magnetic torques for sufficiently strong stellar wind magnetic fields. The topology of the interaction significantly modifies the shape of the magnetic obstacle that leads to magnetic torques. As a consequence, the torques can vary by at least an order of magnitude as the magnetic topology of the interaction varies.

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ACCRETION OF ROCKY PLANETS BY HOT JUPITERS

The observed population of Hot Jupiters displays a stunning variety of physical properties, including a wide range of densities and core sizes for a given planetary mass. Motivated by the observational sample, this Letter studies the accretion of rocky planets by Hot Jupiters, after the Jovian planets have finished their principal migration epoch and become parked in {approx}4 day orbits. In this scenario, rocky planets form later and then migrate inward due to torques from the remaining circumstellar disk, which also damps the orbital eccentricity. This mechanism thus represents one possible channel for increasing the core masses and metallicities of Hot Jupiters. This Letter determines probabilities for the possible end states for the rocky planet: collisions with the Jovian planets, accretion onto the star, ejection from the system, and long-term survival of both planets. These probabilities depend on the mass of the Jovian planet and its starting orbital eccentricity, as well as the eccentricity damping rate for the rocky planet. Since these systems are highly chaotic, a large ensemble (N {approx} 10{sup 3}) of simulations with effectively equivalent starting conditions is required. Planetary collisions are common when the eccentricity damping rate is sufficiently low, but are rare otherwise. For systems that experience planetary collisions, this work determines the distributions of impact velocities-both speeds and impact parameters-for the collisions. These velocity distributions help determine the consequences of the impacts, e.g., where energy and heavy elements are deposited within the giant planets.

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A DEFINITION FOR GIANT PLANETS BASED ON THE MASS–DENSITY RELATIONSHIP

We present the mass–density relationship (log M − log ρ) for objects with masses ranging from planets (M ≈ 0.01 M{sub Jup}) to stars (M > 0.08 M{sub ⊙}). This relationship shows three distinct regions separated by a change in slope in the log M − log ρ plane. In particular, objects with masses in the range 0.3 M{sub Jup}–60 M{sub Jup} follow a tight linear relationship with no distinguishing feature to separate the low-mass end (giant planets) from the high-mass end (brown dwarfs). We propose a new definition of giant planets simply based on changes in the slope of the log M versus log ρ relationship. By this criterion, objects with masses less than ≈0.3 M{sub Jup} are low-mass planets, either icy or rocky. Giant planets cover the mass range 0.3 M{sub Jup}–60 M{sub Jup}. Analogous to the stellar main sequence, objects on the upper end of the giant planet sequence (brown dwarfs) can simply be referred to as “high-mass giant planets,” while planets with masses near that of Jupiter can be called “low-mass giant planets.”.

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THE MAGELLAN PFS PLANET SEARCH PROGRAM: RADIAL VELOCITY AND STELLAR ABUNDANCE ANALYSES OF THE 360 au, METAL-POOR BINARY “TWINS” HD 133131A and B

We present a new precision radial velocity (RV) data set that reveals multiple planets orbiting the stars in the ~360 au, G2+G2 “twin” binary HD 133131AB. Our six years of high-resolution echelle observations from MIKE and five years from the Planet Finder Spectrograph (PFS) on the Magellan telescopes indicate the presence of two eccentric planets around HD 133131A with minimum masses of 1.43 ± 0.03 and 0.63 ± 0.15 M{sub J} at 1.44 ± 0.005 and 4.79 ± 0.92 au, respectively. Additional PFS observations of HD 133131B spanning five years indicate the presence of one eccentric planet of minimum mass 2.50 ± 0.05 M{sub J} at 6.40 ± 0.59 au, making it one of the longest-period planets detected with RV to date. These planets are the first to be reported primarily based on data taken with the PFS on Magellan, demonstrating the instrument’s precision and the advantage of long-baseline RV observations. We perform a differential analysis between the Sun and each star, and between the stars themselves, to derive stellar parameters and measure a suite of 21 abundances across a wide range of condensation temperatures. The host stars are old (likely ~9.5 Gyr) and metal-poor ([Fe/H] ~ -0.30), and we detect a ~0.03 dex depletion in refractory elements in HD 133131A versus B (with standard errors ~0.017). This detection and analysis adds to a small but growing sample of binary “twin” exoplanet host stars with precise abundances measured, and represents the most metal-poor and likely oldest in that sample. Overall, the planets around HD 133131A and B fall in an unexpected regime in planet mass–host star metallicity space and will serve as an important benchmark for the study of long-period giant planets.

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Detailed abundances of planet-hosting wide binaries. II. HD 80606+HD 80607

We present a detailed chemical abundance analysis of 15 elements in the planet-hosting wide binary (PHWB) system HD 80606+HD 80607 using Keck/HIRES spectra. As in our previous analysis of the PHWB HD 20782+HD 20781, we presume that these two G5 dwarf stars formed together and therefore had identical primordial abundances. In this binary, HD 80606 hosts an eccentric (e≈0.93) giant planet at ∼0.5 AU, but HD 80607 has no detected planets. If close-in giant planets on eccentric orbits are efficient at scattering rocky planetary material into their host stars, then HD 80606 should show evidence of having accreted rocky material while HD 80607 should not. Here we show that the trends of abundance versus element condensation temperature for HD 80606 and HD 80607 are statistically indistinguishable, corroborating the recent result of Saffe et al. This could suggest that both stars accreted similar amounts of rocky material; indeed, our model for the chemical signature of rocky planet accretion indicates that HD 80606 could have accreted up to 2.5 M{sub ⊕} of rocky material—about half that contained in the Solar System and primordial asteroid belt—relative to HD 80607 and still be consistent with the data. Since HD 80607 has no known giant planets that might have pushed rocky planet material via migration onto that star, we consider it more likely that HD 80606/07 experienced essentially no rocky planet accretion. This in turn suggests that the migration history of the HD 80606 giant planet must have been such that it ejected any close-in planetary material that might have otherwise been shepherded onto the star.

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In situ and ex situ formation models of Kepler 11 planets

We present formation simulations of the six Kepler 11 planets. Models assume either in situ or ex situ assembly, the latter with migration, and are evolved to the estimated age of the system, ≈8 Gyr. Models combine detailed calculations of both the gaseous envelope and the condensed core structures, including accretion of gas and solids, of the disk’s viscous and thermal evolution, including photo-evaporation and disk-planet interactions, and of the planet’s evaporative mass loss after disk dispersal. Planet–planet interactions are neglected. Both sets of simulations successfully reproduce measured radii, masses, and orbital distances of the planets, except for the radius of Kepler 11b, which loses its entire gaseous envelope shortly after formation. Gaseous (H+He) envelopes account for ≲18% of the planet masses, and between ≈35 and ≈60% of the planet radii. In situ models predict a very massive inner disk, whose solid surface density (σ{sub Z}) varies from over 10{sup 4} to ≈10{sup 3} g cm{sup −2} at stellocentric distances 0.1≲r≲0.5 au. Initial gas densities would be in excess of 10{sup 5} g cm{sup −2} if solids formed locally. Given the high disk temperatures (≳1000 K), planetary interiors can only be composed of metals and highly refractory materials. Sequestration of hydrogen by the core and subsequent outgassing is required to account for the observed radius of Kepler 11b. Ex situ models predict a relatively low-mass disk, whose initial σ{sub Z} varies from ≈10 to ≈5 g cm{sup −2} at 0.5≲r≲7 au and whose initial gas density ranges from ≈10{sup 3} to ≈100 g cm{sup −2}. All planetary interiors are expected to be rich in H{sub 2}O, as core assembly mostly occurs exterior to the ice condensation front. Kepler 11b is expected to have a steam atmosphere, and H{sub 2}O is likely mixed with H+He in the envelopes of the other planets. Results indicate that Kepler 11g may not be more massive than Kepler 11e.

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K2-66b and K2-106b: Two Extremely Hot Sub-Neptune-size Planets with High Densities

We report precise mass and density measurements of two extremely hot sub-Neptune-size planets from the K2 mission using radial velocities, K2 photometry, and adaptive optics imaging. K2-66 harbors a close-in sub-Neptune-sized (2.49{sub −0.24}{sup +0.34} R{sub ⊕}) planet (K2-66b) with a mass of 21.3±3.6 M{sub ⊕}. Because the star is evolving up the subgiant branch, K2-66b receives a high level of irradiation, roughly twice the main-sequence value. K2-66b may reside within the so-called “photoevaporation desert,” a domain of planet size and incident flux that is almost completely devoid of planets. Its mass and radius imply that K2-66b has, at most, a meager envelope fraction (<5%) and perhaps no envelope at all, making it one of the largest planets without a significant envelope. K2-106 hosts an ultra-short-period planet (P = 13.7 hr) that is one of the hottest sub-Neptune-size planets discovered to date. Its radius (1.82{sub −0.14}{sup +0.20} R{sub ⊕}) and mass (9.0±1.6 M{sub ⊕}) are consistent with a rocky composition, as are all other small ultra-short-period planets with well-measured masses. K2-106 also hosts a larger, longer-period planet (R{sub p} = 2.77{sub −0.23}{sup +0.37} R{sub ⊕}, P = 13.3 days) with a mass less than 24.4 M{sub ⊕} at 99.7% confidence. K2-66b and K2-106b probe planetary physics in extreme radiation environments. Their high densities reflect the challenge of retaining a substantial gas envelope in such extreme environments.

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Evaluating the Dynamical Stability of Outer Solar System Objects in the Presence of Planet Nine

Here, we evaluate the dynamical stability of a selection of outer solar system objects in the presence of the proposed new solar system member Planet Nine. We use a Monte Carlo suite of numerical N-body integrations to construct a variety of orbital elements of the new planet and evaluate the dynamical stability of eight trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) in the presence of Planet Nine. These simulations show that some combinations of orbital elements ($a,e$) result in Planet Nine acting as a stabilizing influence on the TNOs, which can otherwise be destabilized by interactions with Neptune. These simulations also suggest that some TNOs transition between several different mean-motion resonances during their lifetimes while still retaining approximate apsidal antialignment with Planet Nine. This behavior suggests that remaining in one particular orbit is not a requirement for orbital stability. As one product of our simulations, we present an a posteriori probability distribution for the semimajor axis and eccentricity of the proposed Planet Nine based on TNO stability. This result thus provides additional evidence that supports the existence of this proposed planet. We also predict that TNOs can be grouped into multiple populations of objects that interact with Planet Nine in different ways: one population may contain objects like Sedna and 2012 VP 113 , which do not migrate significantly in semimajor axis in the presence of Planet Nine and tend to stay in the same resonance; another population may contain objects like 2007 TG 422 and 2013 RF 98 , which may both migrate and transition between different resonances.

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The Gaia–Kepler Stellar Properties Catalog. II. Planet Radius Demographics as a Function of Stellar Mass and Age

Studies of exoplanet demographics require large samples and precise constraints on exoplanet host stars. Using the homogeneous Kepler stellar properties derived using the Gaia Data Release 2 by Berger et al., we recompute Kepler planet radii and incident fluxes and investigate their distributions with stellar mass and age. We measure the stellar mass dependence of the planet radius valley to be dlogR{sub p}/dlogM{sub ⋆} = 0.26{sub −0.16}{sup +0.21}, consistent with the slope predicted by a planet mass dependence on stellar mass (0.24–0.35) and core-powered mass loss (0.33). We also find the first evidence of a stellar age dependence of the planet populations straddling the radius valley. Specifically, we determine that the fraction of super-Earths (1–1.8 R{sub ⊕}) to sub-Neptunes (1.8–3.5 R{sub ⊕}) increases from 0.61 ± 0.09 at young ages (<1 Gyr) to 1.00 ± 0.10 at old ages (>1 Gyr), consistent with the prediction by core-powered mass loss that the mechanism shaping the radius valley operates over Gyr timescales. Additionally, we find a tentative decrease in the radii of relatively cool (F {sub p} < 150 F{sub ⊕}) sub-Neptunes over Gyr timescales, which suggests that these planets may possess H/He envelopes instead of higher mean molecular weight atmospheres. We confirm the existence of planets within the hot sub-Neptunian “desert” (2.2 R {sub ⊕} < R {sub p} < 3.8 R{sub ⊕}, F {sub p} > 650 F{sub ⊕}) and show that these planets are preferentially orbiting more evolved stars compared to other planets at similar incident fluxes. In addition, we identify candidates for cool (F {sub p} < 20 F{sub ⊕}) inflated Jupiters, present a revised list of habitable zone candidates, and find that the ages of single and multiple transiting planet systems are statistically indistinguishable.

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ASSESSING MAGNETIC TORQUES AND ENERGY FLUXES IN CLOSE-IN STAR–PLANET SYSTEMS

Planets in close-in orbit interact with the magnetized wind of their hosting star. This magnetic interaction was proposed to be a source for enhanced emissions in the chromosphere of the star, and to participate in setting the migration timescale of the close-in planet. The efficiency of the magnetic interaction is known to depend on the magnetic properties of the host star and of the planet, and on the magnetic topology of the interaction. We use a global, three-dimensional numerical model of close-in star–planet systems, based on the magnetohydrodynamics approximation, to compute a grid of simulations for varying properties of the orbiting planet. We propose a simple parametrization of the magnetic torque that applies to the planet, and of the energy flux generated by the interaction. The dependency upon the planet properties and the wind properties is clearly identified in the derived scaling laws, which can be used in secular evolution codes to take into account the effect of magnetic interactions in planet migration. They can also be used to estimate a potential magnetic source of enhanced emissions in observed close-in star–planet systems, in order to constrain observationally possible exoplanetary magnetic fields.

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The L 98-59 System: Three Transiting, Terrestrial-size Planets Orbiting a Nearby M Dwarf

We report the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) discovery of three terrestrial-size planets transiting L98-59 (TOI-175, TIC 307210830)—a bright M dwarf at a distance of 10.6 pc. Using the Gaia-measured distance and broadband photometry, we find that the host star is an M3 dwarf. Combined with the TESS transits from three sectors, the corresponding stellar parameters yield planet radii ranging from 0.8 R⊕ to 1.6 R⊕. All three planets have short orbital periods, ranging from 2.25 to 7.45 days with the outer pair just wide of a 2:1 period resonance. Diagnostic tests produced by the TESS Data Validation Report and the vetting package DAVE rule out common false-positive sources. These analyses, along with dedicated follow-up and the multiplicity of the system, lend confidence that the observed signals are caused by planets transiting L 98-59 and are not associated with other sources in the field. The L 98-59 system is interesting for a number of reasons: the host star is bright (V =11.7 mag, K = 7.1 mag) and the planets are prime targets for further follow-up observations including precision radial-velocity mass measurements and future transit spectroscopy with the James Webb Space Telescope; the near-resonant configuration makes the system a laboratory to study planetary system dynamical evolution; and three planets of relatively similar size in the same system present an opportunity to study terrestrial planets where other variables (age, metallicity, etc.) can be held constant. L 98-59 will be observed in four more TESS sectors, which will provide a wealth of information on the three currently known planets and have the potential to reveal additional planets in the system.

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A Fast Parallel Simulation Code for Interaction between Proto-Planetary Disk and Embedded Proto-Planets: Implementation for 3D Code

We develop a 3D simulation code for interaction between the proto-planetary disk and embedded proto-planets. The protoplanetary disk is treated as a three-dimensional (3D), self-gravitating gas whose motion is described by the locally isothermal Navier-Stokes equations in a spherical coordinate centered on the star. The differential equations for the disk are similar to those given in Kley et al. (2009) with a different gravitational potential that is defined in Nelson et al. (2000). The equations are solved by directional split Godunov method for the inviscid Euler equations plus operator-split method for the viscous source terms. We use a sub-cycling technique for the azimuthal sweep to alleviate the time step restriction. We also extend the FARGO scheme of Masset (2000) and modified in Li et al. (2001) to our 3D code to accelerate the transport in the azimuthal direction. Furthermore, we have implemented a reduced 2D (r, {theta}) and a fully 3D self-gravity solver on our uniform disk grid, which extends our 2D method (Li, Buoni, & Li 2008) to 3D. This solver uses a mode cut-off strategy and combines FFT in the azimuthal direction and direct summation in the radial and meridional direction. An initial axis-symmetric equilibrium disk is generated via iteration between the disk density profile and the 2D disk-self-gravity. We do not need any softening in the disk self-gravity calculation as we have used a shifted grid method (Li et al. 2008) to calculate the potential. The motion of the planet is limited on the mid-plane and the equations are the same as given in D'Angelo et al. (2005), which we adapted to the polar coordinates with a fourth-order Runge-Kutta solver. The disk gravitational force on the planet is assumed to evolve linearly with time between two hydrodynamics time steps. The Planetary potential acting on the disk is calculated accurately with a small softening given by a cubic-spline form (Kley et al. 2009). Since the torque is extremely sensitive to the position of the planet, we adopt the corotating frame that allows the planet moving only in radial direction if only one planet is present. This code has been extensively tested on a number of problems. For the earthmass planet with constant aspect ratio h = 0.05, the torque calculated using our code matches quite well with the the 3D linear theory results by Tanaka et al. (2002). The code is fully parallelized via message-passing interface (MPI) and has very high parallel efficiency. Several numerical examples for both fixed planet and moving planet are provided to demonstrate the efficacy of the numerical method and code.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

LATE ORBITAL INSTABILITIES IN THE OUTER PLANETS INDUCED BY INTERACTION WITH A SELF-GRAVITATING PLANETESIMAL DISK

We revisit the issue of the cause of the dynamical instability during the so-called Nice model, which describes the early dynamical evolution of the giant planets. In particular, we address the problem of the interaction of planets with a distant planetesimal disk in the time interval between the dispersal of the proto-solar nebula and the instability. In contrast to previous works, we assume that the inner edge of the planetesimal disk is several AUs beyond the orbit of the outermost planet, so that no close encounters between planets and planetesimals occur. Moreover, we model the disk's viscous stirring, induced by the presence of embedded Pluto-sized objects. The four outer planets are assumed to be initially locked in a multi-resonant state that most likely resulted from a preceding phase of gas-driven migration. We show that viscous stirring leads to an irreversible exchange of energy between a planet and a planetesimal disk even in the absence of close encounters between the planet and disk particles. The process is mainly driven by the most eccentric planet, which is the inner ice giant in the case studied here. In isolation, this would cause this ice giant to migrate inward. However, because it is locked in resonance with Saturn, its eccentricity increases due to adiabatic invariance. During this process, the system crosses many weak secular resonances-many of which can disrupt the mean motion resonance and make the planetary system unstable. We argue that this basic dynamical process would work in many generic multi-resonant systems-forcing a good fraction of them to become unstable. Because the energy exchange proceeds at a very slow pace, the instability manifests itself late, on a timescale consistent with the epoch of the late heavy bombardment ({approx}700 Myr). In the migration mechanism presented here, the instability time is much less sensitive to the properties of the planetesimal disk (particularly the location of its inner edge) than in the classic Nice model mechanism.

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The Feasibility of Directly Imaging Nearby Cold Jovian Planets with MIRI/JWST

The upcoming launch of the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) will dramatically increase our understanding of exoplanets, particularly through direct imaging. Microlensing and radial velocity surveys indicate that some M dwarfs host long-period giant planets. Some of these planets will likely be just a few parsecs away and a few astronomical units from their host stars, a parameter space that cannot be probed by existing high-contrast imagers. We studied whether the coronagraphs on the Mid-infrared Instrument on JWST can detect Jovian-type planets around nearby M dwarfs. For a sample of 27 very nearby M dwarfs, we simulated a sample of Saturn–Jupiter-mass planets with three atmospheric configurations and three orbital separations, observed in three different filters. We found that the f1550c 15.5 μm filter is best suited for detecting Jupiter-like planets. Jupiter-like planets with patchy cloud cover, 2 au from their star, are detectable at 15.5 μm around 14 stars in our sample, while Jupiters with clearer atmospheres are detectable around all stars in the sample. Saturns were most detectable at 10.65 and 11.4 μm (f1065c and f1140c filters), but only with cloud-free atmospheres and within 3 pc (six stars). Surveying all 27 stars would take <170 hr of JWST integration time, or just a few hours for a shorter survey of the most favorable targets. There is one potentially detectable known planet in our sample: GJ 832 b. Observations aimed at detecting this planet should occur in 2024–2026, when the planet is maximally separated from the star.

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