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Improving Computational Efficiency of Prognostics Algorithms in Resource-Constrained Settings

In engineering and aerospace applications, it is vital to operational success to have insight into the expected performance and health of physical systems. The field of prognostics and health management provides quantitative methods for monitoring, predicting, and managing system health. Prognostics algorithms can be employed to assess the current state of a system, propagate the system throughout time, and predict potential anomalies or failures that may occur. While they can provide accurate prediction results, effective prognostics algorithms can be challenging to use in resource-constrained settings due to computational limitations and high computational latency, leading to obsolete predictions. Thus, computationally efficient and accurate algorithms are necessary for future remaining useful life predictions. In this work, we implement new algorithmic approaches for prediction, quantitatively compare them via a battery degradation use-case, and provide recommendations of potential improvements to a prognostics framework. One approach to prediction is through sampling, whereby the current state of a physical system is sampled many times and each sample is propagated forward until failure is reached, resulting in a distribution of failure values. To improve the efficiency of this process, we implemented five new algorithmic approaches to prediction, including three distinct sampling methods (standard Monte Carlo, Quasi-Monte Carlo, and Latin Hypercube Sampling), a variable time step algorithm, and a variable sample size algorithm. To compare the algorithms, we employ a variety of metrics designed specifically to analyze both computational efficiency and model accuracy. Our metrics include accuracy to compare the average predicted value to ground truth, mean absolute deviation to illustrate dispersion, specific percentile error to describe accuracy within a user-defined risk tolerance, and code run-time. To quantitatively analyze our results, we employ a use-case of degradation of a Lithium-ion battery. We use an electrochemistry-based model to describe the current health state of the battery, and implement our prediction algorithms to propagate forward in time until end-of-discharge (EOD) is reached. Notably, through this work it was found that none of our sampling approaches had a significant impact on computational efficiency or model accuracy in predicting EOD of the battery. We find that while the sampling methods are unique, the distributions they generate are similar, ultimately producing final predictions that are nearly identical. In exploring the effect of the time step within the prediction algorithm, we found that prediction accuracy was highly dependent on the time step used, and that implementing a variable time step within a particular prediction may provide an increase in computational efficiency while also maintaining prediction accuracy. Finally, implementing a variable sample size also affected prediction, and our results show that tuning both the magnitude and timing of the sample size adjustment can result in improved computation speed and maintained prediction accuracy. Taken together, our findings highlight the challenge of performing prognostics in resource-constrained settings, and illustrate the potential of developing new prediction algorithms to improve computational efficiency.

prognostics↗

NASA NTRS1994

Inside the supernova: A powerful convective engine

We present an extensive study of the inception of supernova explosions by following the evolution of the cores of two massive stars (15 and 25 Solar mass) in multidimension. Our calculations begin at the onset of core collapse and stop several hundred milliseconds after the bounce, at which time successful explosions of the appropriate magnitude have been obtained. Similar to the classical delayed explosion mechanism of Wilson, the explosion is powered by the heating of the envelope due to neutrinos emitted by the protoneutron star as it radiates the gravitational energy liberated by the collapse. However, as was shown by Herant, Benz, & Colgate, this heating generates strong convection outside the neutrinosphere, which we demonstrate to be critical to the explosion. By breaking a purely stratified hydrostatic equilibrium, convection moves the nascent supernova away from a delicate radiative equilibrium between neutrino emission and absorption, Thus, unlike what has been observed in one-dimensional calculations, explosions are rendered quite insensitive to the details of the physical input parameters such as neutrino cross sections or nuclear equation of state parameters. As a confirmation, our comparative one-dimensional calculations with identical microphysics, but in which convection cannot occur, lead to dramatic failures. Guided by our numerical results, we have developed a paradigm for the supernova explosion mechanism. We view a supernova as an open cycle thermodynamic engine in which a reservoir of low-entropy matter (the envelope) is thermally coupled and physically connected to a hot bath (the protoneutron star) by a neutrino flux, and by hydrodynamic instabilities. This paradigm does not invoke new or modified physics over previous treatments, but relies on compellingly straightforward thermodynamic arguments. It provides a robust and self-regulated explosion mechanism to power supernovae that is effective under a wide range of physical parameters.

Herant, Marc↗

NASA NTRS1976

Vibration detection of component operability

In order to prevent catastrophic failure and eliminate unnecessary periodic maintenance in the Space Shuttle Orbiter dynamic components, instrumentation for detecting incipient failure in these components is required. This study investigated the utilization of vibrational phenomena as one of the principal physical parameters on which to base the design of this instrumentation. Baseline vibration data was collected from three aircraft type fans and two aircraft type pumps over a frequency range from a few Hertz to greater than 300 kHz. The baseline data included spectrum analysis of the vibration and detected carrier signals, as well as several non-spectrum parameters. Several defects were introduced into the five test items, and all defects were detected by at least one of the parameters with a margin of at least 2:1 over the worst case baseline.

Baird, B.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Designing dual-plate meteoroid shields: A new analysis

Physics governing ultrahigh velocity impacts onto dual-plate meteor armor is discussed. Meteoroid shield design methodologies are considered: failure mechanisms, qualitative features of effective meteoroid shield designs, evaluating/processing meteoroid threat models, and quantitative techniques for optimizing effective meteoroid shield designs. Related investigations are included: use of Kevlar cloth/epoxy panels in meteoroid shields for the Halley's Comet intercept vehicle, mirror exposure dynamics, and evaluation of ion fields produced around the Halley Intercept Mission vehicle by meteoroid impacts.

Swift, H. F.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Airline Chair-rest Deconditioning: Induction of Immobilization Thromboemboli?

Air passenger miles will likely double by year 2020. The altered and restrictive environment in an airliner cabin can influence hematological homeostasis in passengers and crew. Flight-related deep various thromboemboli (DVT) have been associated with at least 577 deaths on 42 of 120 airlines from 1977 to 1984 (25 deaths/million departures), whereas many such cases go unreported. However, there are four major factors that could influence formation of possible flight-induced DVT: sleeping accomodations (via sitting immobilization), travelers' medical history (via tissue injury), cabin environmental factors (via lower partial pressure of oxygen and lower relative humidity), and the more encompassing chair-rest deconditioning (C-RD) syndrome. There is ample evidence that recent injury and surgery (especially in deconditioned hospitalized patients) facilitate thrombophlebitis and formation of DVT that may be exacerbated by the immobilization of prolonged air travel. In the healthy flying population immobilization factors associated with prolonged (> 5 hr) C-RID such as total body dehydration, hypovolemia and increased blood viscosity, and reduced various blood flow (pooling) in the legs may facilitate formation of DVT. However, data from at least four case-controlled epidemiological studies did not confirm a direct causative relationship between air travel and DART, but factors such as history of vascular thromboemboli, various insufficiency, chronic heart failure, obesity, immobile standing position, more than 3 pregnancies, infectious disease, long-distance travel, muscular trauma and violent physical effort were significantly more frequent in DVT patients than in controls. Thus, there is no clear, direct evidence yet that prolonged sitting in airliner seats, or prolonged experimental chair-rest- or bed- rest-deconditioning treatments cause deep various thromboemboli in healthy people.

Greenleaf, J. E.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Airline chair-rest deconditioning: induction of immobilisation thromboemboli?

Air passenger miles will likely double by year 2020. The altered and restrictive environment in an airliner cabin can influence haematological homeostasis in passengers and crew. Flight-related deep venous thromboemboli (DVT) have been associated with at least 577 deaths on 42 of 120 airlines from 1977 to 1984 (25 deaths/million departures), whereas many such cases go unreported. However, there are four major factors that could influence formation of possible flight-induced DVT: sleeping accommodations (via sitting immobilisation); travellers' medical history (via tissue injury); cabin environmental factors (via lower partial pressure of oxygen and lower relative humidity); and the more encompassing chair-rest deconditioning (C-RD) syndrome. There is ample evidence that recent injury and surgery (especially in deconditioned hospitalised patients) facilitate thrombophlebitis and formation of DVT that may be exacerbated by the immobilisation of prolonged air travel.In the healthy flying population, immobilisation factors associated with prolonged (>5 hours) C-RD such as total body dehydration, hypovolaemia and increased blood viscosity, and reduced venous blood flow (pooling) in the legs may facilitate formation of DVT. However, data from at least four case-controlled epidemiological studies did not confirm a direct causative relationship between air travel and DVT, but factors such as a history of vascular thromboemboli, venous insufficiency, chronic heart failure, obesity, immobile standing position, more than three pregnancies, infectious disease, long-distance travel, muscular trauma and violent physical effort were significantly more frequent in DVT patients than in controls. Thus, there is no clear, direct evidence yet that prolonged sitting in airliner seats, or prolonged experimental chair-rest or bed-rest deconditioning treatments cause DVT in healthy people.

Review, Tutorial↗

NASA NTRS2022

Flow Testing of Corrugated Metal Flexhoses to Evaluate Flow-Induced Vibration and Stiffness

Corrugated metal flexhoses are used to supply fluid routing where straight rigid pipes cannot meet the design requirements due to vibrations, thermal expansion, or motion. These types of hoses are found in a wide range of applications at KSC (Exploration Ground Systems Program in particular) with various fluid commodities such as fuel, oxidizers, coolant, and cryogenics. However, flexibility of design comes at a price: due to increased levels of turbulence generated by the hose geometry, the necessary supply pressure must increase to achieve the same flow rate. Furthermore, the convolutes of the flexhoses interact with the flow field to generate areas of flow separation which leads to a phenomenon known as vortex shedding. When the frequency of vortex shedding couples with the natural frequency of the hose, this can be detrimental and cause premature failure. There are a limited amount of software that can correctly model the coupled fluid structure interactions(FSI) between the solid and fluid physics. This project aims to develop a computer model that can predict Flow-Induced Vibration (FIV) on flexhoses in one of the atypical configurations found in the State-of-the-Art (SOTA) standard for hoses in an angulated state. Our research seeks to extend the literature and expand NASA’s FIV standard. The computational rigor and resources available in the Apollo Era did not allow for flow coupling between fluids and structure interfaces to evaluate FIV of the flexhose. Our team believes that modern techniques and methods of evaluation should be used to reevaluate and extend the database of FIV and stiffness properties of flexhoses to assess the risk of failure. The core performance criteria is a computer model that is able to predict the FIV frequency within 10%.

Jared F. Congiardo↗

NASA NTRS1980

Hot tensile tests of Inconel 718

The physical metallurgy of near-solidus integranular cracking in Inconel 718 welds was investigated. The data, although inconclusive, suggest at least two mechanisms which might explain intergranular cracking (microfissuring) in the heat-affected zone of several high temperature alloys. One theory is based on the separation of intergranular liquid while the other involves mechanical failure of solid ligaments surrounded by intergranular liquid. Both mechanisms concentrate strain in the grain boundaries resulting in low strain (1%) intergranular brittleness. The mechanisms reported might also pertain to the physical metallurgy of casting, powder metallurgy sintering and hot isostatic pressing.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1985

Nickel-cadmium cell life test

Over 6,9000 Low Earth Orbit cycles were accumulated at 30% Depth of Discharge on twelve INTELSAT-design nickel-hydrogen cells. Physical equipment and cells are described. Performance characteristics are seen to be uniform. Further testing is planned to seek a failure mode, and also to investigate the effects of a new additive for nickel-hydrogen cells. Initial results indicate improved performance at higher temperatures and diminished swelling of positive nickel plates.

Wheeler, J. R.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Recommendations for Hypersonic Boundary Layer Transition Flight Testing

Much has been learned about the physics underlying the transition process at supersonic and hypersonic speeds through years of analysis, experiment and computation. Generally, the application of this knowledge has been restricted to simple shapes like plates, cones and spherical bodies. However, flight reentry vehicles are in reality never simple. They typically are highly complex geometries flown at angle of attack so three-dimensional effects are very important, as are roughness effects due to surface features and/or ablation. This paper will review our present understanding of the physics of the transition process and look back at some of the recent flight test programs for their successes and failures. The goal of this paper is to develop rationale for new hypersonic boundary layer transition flight experiments. Motivations will be derived from both an inward look at what we believe constitutes a good flight test program as well as an outward review of the goals and objectives of some recent US based unclassified proposals and programs. As part of our recommendations, this paper will address the need for careful experimental work as per the guidelines enunciated years ago by the U.S. Transition Study Group. Following these guidelines is essential to obtaining reliable, usable data for allowing refinement of transition estimation techniques.

Berry, Scott A.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Development of GENOA Progressive Failure Parallel Processing Software Systems

A capability consisting of software development and experimental techniques has been developed and is described. The capability is integrated into GENOA-PFA to model polymer matrix composite (PMC) structures. The capability considers the physics and mechanics of composite materials and structure by integration of a hierarchical multilevel macro-scale (lamina, laminate, and structure) and micro scale (fiber, matrix, and interface) simulation analyses. The modeling involves (1) ply layering methodology utilizing FEM elements with through-the-thickness representation, (2) simulation of effects of material defects and conditions (e.g., voids, fiber waviness, and residual stress) on global static and cyclic fatigue strengths, (3) including material nonlinearities (by updating properties periodically) and geometrical nonlinearities (by Lagrangian updating), (4) simulating crack initiation. and growth to failure under static, cyclic, creep, and impact loads. (5) progressive fracture analysis to determine durability and damage tolerance. (6) identifying the percent contribution of various possible composite failure modes involved in critical damage events. and (7) determining sensitivities of failure modes to design parameters (e.g., fiber volume fraction, ply thickness, fiber orientation. and adhesive-bond thickness). GENOA-PFA progressive failure analysis is now ready for use to investigate the effects on structural responses to PMC material degradation from damage induced by static, cyclic (fatigue). creep, and impact loading in 2D/3D PMC structures subjected to hygrothermal environments. Its use will significantly facilitate targeting design parameter changes that will be most effective in reducing the probability of a given failure mode occurring.

Abdi, Frank↗

NASA NTRS1993

Development of an engineering level prediction method for high angle of attack aerodynamics

The present work is concerned with predicting the unsteady flow considered to be the cause of the structural failure of twin vertical tail aircraft. An engineering tool has been produced for high angle of attack aerodynamics using the simplest physical models. The main innovation behind this work is its emphasis on the modeling of two key aspects of the dominant physics associated with high angle-of-attack airflows, namely unsteady separation and vortex breakdown.

Reisenthel, Patrick H.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Cognitive Assessment During Long-Duration Space Flight

The Space Flight Cognitive Assessment Tool for Windows (WinSCAT) is a computer-based, self-administered battery of five cognitive assessment tests developed for medical operations at NASA's Johnson Space Center in Houston, Texas. WinSCAT is a medical requirement for U.S. long-duration astronauts and has been implemented with U.S. astronauts from one NASA/Mir mission (NASA-7 mission) and all expeditions to date on the International Space Station (ISS). Its purpose is to provide ISS crew surgeons with an objective clinical tool after an unexpected traumatic event, a medical condition, or the cumulative effects of space flight that could negatively affect an astronaut's cognitive status and threaten mission success. WinSCAT was recently updated to add network capability to support a 6-person crew on the station support computers. Additionally, WinSCAT Version 2.0.28 has increased difficulty of items in Mathematics, increased number of items in Match-to-Sample, incorporates a moving rather than a fixed baseline, and implements stricter interpretation rules. ISS performance data were assessed to compare initial to modified interpretation rules for detecting potential changes in cognitive functioning during space flight. WinSCAT tests are routinely taken monthly during an ISS mission. Performance data from these ISS missions do not indicate significant cognitive decrements due to microgravity/space flight alone but have shown decrements. Applying the newly derived rules to ISS data results in a number of off-nominal performances at various times during and after flight.. Correlation to actual events is needed, but possible explanations for off-nominal performances could include actual physical factors such as toxic exposure, medication effects, or fatigue; emotional factors including stress from the mission or life events; or failure to exert adequate effort on the tests.

Seaton, Kimberly↗

NASA NTRS2012

Space Weather Impacts on Spacecraft Design and Operations in Auroral Charging Environments

Spacecraft in low altitude, high inclination (including sun-synchronous) orbits are widely used for remote sensing of the Earth s land surface and oceans, monitoring weather and climate, communications, scientific studies of the upper atmosphere and ionosphere, and a variety of other scientific, commercial, and military applications. These systems are episodically exposed to environments characterized by a high flux of energetic (approx.1 to 10 s kilovolt) electrons in regions of very low background plasma density which is similar in some ways to the space weather conditions in geostationary orbit responsible for spacecraft charging to kilovolt levels. While it is well established that charging conditions in geostationary orbit are responsible for many anomalies and even spacecraft failures, to date there have been relatively few such reports due to charging in auroral environments. This presentation first reviews the physics of the space environment and its interactions with spacecraft materials that control auroral charging rates and the anticipated maximum potentials that should be observed on spacecraft surfaces during disturbed space weather conditions. We then describe how the theoretical values compare to the observational history of extreme charging in auroral environments and discuss how space weather impacts both spacecraft design and operations for vehicles on orbital trajectories that traverse auroral charging environments.

Minow, Joseph I.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Differential continuum damage mechanics models for creep and fatigue of unidirectional metal matrix composites

Three multiaxial isothermal continuum damage mechanics models for creep, fatigue, and creep/fatigue interaction of a unidirectional metal matrix composite volume element are presented, only one of which will be discussed in depth. Each model is phenomenological and stress based, with varying degrees of complexity to accurately predict the initiation and propagation of intergranular and transgranular defects over a wide range of loading conditions. The development of these models is founded on the definition of an initially transversely isotropic fatigue limit surface, static fracture surface, normalized stress amplitude function and isochronous creep damage failure surface, from which both fatigue and creep damage evolutionary laws can be obtained. The anisotropy of each model is defined through physically meaningful invariants reflecting the local stress and material orientation. All three transversely isotropic models have been shown, when taken to their isotropic limit, to directly simplify to previously developed and validated creep and fatigue continuum damage theories. Results of a nondimensional parametric study illustrate (1) the flexibility of the present formulation when attempting to characterize a large class of composite materials, and (2) its ability to predict anticipated qualitative trends in the fatigue behavior of unidirectional metal matrix composites. Additionally, the potential for the inclusion of various micromechanical effects (e.g., fiber/matrix bond strength, fiber volume fraction, etc.), into the phenomenological anisotropic parameters is noted, as well as a detailed discussion regarding the necessary exploratory and characterization experiments needed to utilize the featured damage theories.

Arnold, S. M.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Goal-Function Tree Modeling for Systems Engineering and Fault Management

The draft NASA Fault Management (FM) Handbook (2012) states that Fault Management (FM) is a "part of systems engineering", and that it "demands a system-level perspective" (NASAHDBK- 1002, 7). What, exactly, is the relationship between systems engineering and FM? To NASA, systems engineering (SE) is "the art and science of developing an operable system capable of meeting requirements within often opposed constraints" (NASA/SP-2007-6105, 3). Systems engineering starts with the elucidation and development of requirements, which set the goals that the system is to achieve. To achieve these goals, the systems engineer typically defines functions, and the functions in turn are the basis for design trades to determine the best means to perform the functions. System Health Management (SHM), by contrast, defines "the capabilities of a system that preserve the system's ability to function as intended" (Johnson et al., 2011, 3). Fault Management, in turn, is the operational subset of SHM, which detects current or future failures, and takes operational measures to prevent or respond to these failures. Failure, in turn, is the "unacceptable performance of intended function." (Johnson 2011, 605) Thus the relationship of SE to FM is that SE defines the functions and the design to perform those functions to meet system goals and requirements, while FM detects the inability to perform those functions and takes action. SHM and FM are in essence "the dark side" of SE. For every function to be performed (SE), there is the possibility that it is not successfully performed (SHM); FM defines the means to operationally detect and respond to this lack of success. We can also describe this in terms of goals: for every goal to be achieved, there is the possibility that it is not achieved; FM defines the means to operationally detect and respond to this inability to achieve the goal. This brief description of relationships between SE, SHM, and FM provide hints to a modeling approach to provide formal connectivity between the nominal (SE), and off-nominal (SHM and FM) aspects of functions and designs. This paper describes a formal modeling approach to the initial phases of the development process that integrates the nominal and off-nominal perspectives in a model that unites SE goals and functions of with the failure to achieve goals and functions (SHM/FM). This methodology and corresponding model, known as a Goal-Function Tree (GFT), provides a means to represent, decompose, and elaborate system goals and functions in a rigorous manner that connects directly to design through use of state variables that translate natural language requirements and goals into logical-physical state language. The state variable-based approach also provides the means to directly connect FM to the design, by specifying the range in which state variables must be controlled to achieve goals, and conversely, the failures that exist if system behavior go out-of-range. This in turn allows for the systems engineers and SHM/FM engineers to determine which state variables to monitor, and what action(s) to take should the system fail to achieve that goal. In sum, the GFT representation provides a unified approach to early-phase SE and FM development. This representation and methodology has been successfully developed and implemented using Systems Modeling Language (SysML) on the NASA Space Launch System (SLS) Program. It enabled early design trade studies of failure detection coverage to ensure complete detection coverage of all crew-threatening failures. The representation maps directly both to FM algorithm designs, and to failure scenario definitions needed for design analysis and testing. The GFT representation provided the basis for mapping of abort triggers into scenarios, both needed for initial, and successful quantitative analyses of abort effectiveness (detection and response to crew-threatening events).

Patterson, Jonathan D.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Predicting the velocity and azimuth of fragments generated by the range destruction or random failure of rocket casings and tankage

A calculational method is described which provides a powerful tool for predicting solid rocket motor (SRM) casing and liquid rocket tankage fragmentation response. The approach properly partitions the available impulse to each major system-mass component. It uses the Pisces code developed by Physics International to couple the forces generated by an Eulerian-modeled gas flow field to a Lagrangian-modeled fuel and casing system. The details of the predictive analytical modeling process and the development of normalized relations for momentum partition as a function of SRM burn time and initial geometry are discussed. Methods for applying similar modeling techniques to liquid-tankage-overpressure failures are also discussed. Good agreement between predictions and observations are obtained for five specific events.

Eck, Marshall↗

NASA NTRS1989

U. radio emission from quiescent filaments

Full-disk Very Large Array (VLA) synthesis maps of the quiet Sun indicate that filaments can be seen in emission at 91.6 cm wavelength; they are detected in absorption at shorter microwave wavelengths. The 91.6 cm emission has a brightness temperature of T sub B = 3 x 10(exp 5) K. It is hotter, wider and longer than the underlying filament detected at H alpha wavelengths, but the similarity between the shape, position, elongation and orientation of the radio and optical features suggests their close association. The 91.6 cm emission is attributed to the thermal-bremsstrahlung of a hot transition sheath that envelopes the H alpha filament and acts as an interface between the cool, dense H alpha filament and the hotter, rarefied corona. The transition sheath is seen in emission because of the lower optical depth of the corona at 90 cm wavelength, and the width of this sheet is 10(exp 9) cm. A power law gradient in pressure provides a better match to the observations than a constant pressure model; definitive tests of theoretical models await simultaneous multi-wavelength studies of filaments at different observing angles. When the thermal bremsstrahlung is optically thin, the magnetic field strength in the transition sheath can be inferred from the observed circular polarization. Variable physical parameters of the sheath, such as width, electron density, and electron temperature, can explain controversial reports of the detection of, or the failure to detect, the meter-wavelength counterpart of H alpha filaments.

Lang, Kenneth R.↗