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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 289 records · Page 16
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Machine Learning Models for Predicting Molecular UV–Vis Spectra with Quantum Mechanical Properties

Accurate understanding of Ultraviolet–visible (UV–Vis) spectra is critical for highthroughput design of compounds for drug discovery. Experimentally determining UV–Vis spectra can become expensive when dealing with a large quantity of novel molecules. This provides us an opportunity to drive computational advances in molecular property predictions using quantum mechanics and machine learning. In this work, we use both Quantum Mechanically (QM) predicted and measured UV–Vis spectra as input to modify four different machine learning architectures: UVvis-SchNet, UVvis- DTNN, UVvis-Transformer, and UVvis-MPNN. Here we find that the UVvis-MPNN model outperforms the other models when using optimized 3D coordinates and QM predicted spectra as input features. This model has the highest performance for predicting UVVisible spectra with a training RMSE of 0.06 and validation RMSE of 0.08.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Toward fully coherent soft x-ray free-electron laser via echo-enabled harmonic generation in fourth generation synchrotron light sources

Having previously reported on bunching via echo-enabled harmonic generation (EEHG) as an effective way to improve the longitudinal coherence in the NSLS-II storage ring [X. Yang et al., Sci. Rep. 12, 9437 (2022)], we demonstrate that this EEHG scheme can be easily adopted to any fourth generation diffraction-limited synchrotron light source with significant benefits. The advantage of the scheme is that it requires no change of the lattice and is fully compatible with other beamlines. Since the EEHG performance is mainly determined by the momentum compaction, beam emittances, and beta functions of a SR lattice, we have identified these crucial parameters and successfully built a generalized model, which can predict the performance of nearly any SLS. Regarding the fourth generation SLSs, momentum compactions are often significantly smaller; thus, to cover the x rays with a photon energy of up to 1 keV, we utilize a specific design, including a 250 nm seed-laser wavelength. Our model predicts that for most of the current and future fourth generation SLSs, the EEHG scheme can produce significant prebunching up to harmonic 200 and, thus, generate a few MW scale peak power at 1.25 nm wavelength.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Machine Learning Driven Contouring of High-Frequency Four-Dimensional Cardiac Ultrasound Data

Automatic boundary detection of 4D ultrasound (4DUS) cardiac data is a promising yet challenging application at the intersection of machine learning and medicine. Using recently developed murine 4DUS cardiac imaging data, we demonstrate here a set of three machine learning models that predict left ventricular wall kinematics along both the endo- and epi-cardial boundaries. Each model is fundamentally built on three key features: (1) the projection of raw US data to a lower dimensional subspace, (2) a smoothing spline basis across time, and (3) a strategic parameterization of the left ventricular boundaries. Model 1 is constructed such that boundary predictions are based on individual short-axis images, regardless of their relative position in the ventricle. Model 2 simultaneously incorporates parallel short-axis image data into their predictions. Model 3 builds on the multi-slice approach of model 2, but assists predictions with a single ground-truth position at end-diastole. To assess the performance of each model, Monte Carlo cross validation was used to assess the performance of each model on unseen data. For predicting the radial distance of the endocardium, models 1, 2, and 3 yielded average R2 values of 0.41, 0.49, and 0.71, respectively. Monte Carlo simulations of the endocardial wall showed significantly closer predictions when using model 2 versus model 1 at a rate of 48.67%, and using model 3 versus model 2 at a rate of 83.50%. These finding suggest that a machine learning approach where multi-slice data are simultaneously used as input and predictions are aided by a single user input yields the most robust performance. Subsequently, we explore the how metrics of cardiac kinematics compare between ground-truth contours and predicted boundaries. We observed negligible deviations from ground-truth when using predicted boundaries alone, except in the case of early diastolic strain rate, providing confidence for the use of such machine learning models for rapid and reliable assessments of murine cardiac function. To our knowledge, this is the first application of machine learning to murine left ventricular 4DUS data. Future work will be needed to strengthen both model performance and applicability to different cardiac disease models.

4D ultrasound↗
DOE OSTI2026

Separation of Hydrogen Using Pd/Ag Membranes: Experimental and Modeling Results with Potential Application to Direct Internal Recycle

Implementation of fusion energy requires processing the deuterium-tritium (D-T) mixture used to fuel the reaction, and separation of hydrogen isotopes from other gases is imperative. Specifically, the separation of hydrogen isotopes from helium is a matter of importance to the fusion fuel cycle community. Initial testing with a palladium-silver (Pd-Ag) membrane indicates that even moderate vacuum (~100 torr permeate pressure) can provide a high degree of separation (>90%) at a high ratio of H 2 to He. Given the presence of He in many fusion systems, a high technology readiness level (TRL) for Q 2 /He (where Q represents any isotope of hydrogen) separations is needed. This study demonstrates the efficacy of H 2 removal from He via permeation and potential applications for direct internal recycle. Modeling will accompany the experimental campaign to generate a predictive capability and quantify the separation performance. Modeling from previous hydrogen permeation studies has demonstrated that the typical Sieverts’ law fails to predict the measured permeation rates at high hydrogen fluxes. Existing models are being refined to integrate the effects of surface phenomena into permeation predictions, which have been expanded to account for mixtures with large ranges of Q 2 concentrations. These data will improve the TRL of permeators as a separation technology for the fusion fuel cycle.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2022

A systematic method for selecting molecular descriptors as features when training models for predicting physiochemical properties

Machine learning has proven to be a powerful tool for accelerating biofuel development. Although numerous models are available to predict a range of properties using chemical descriptors, there is a trade-off between interpretability and performance. Neural networks provide predictive models with high accuracy at the expense of some interpretability, while simpler models such as linear regression often lack in accuracy. In addition to model architecture, feature selection is also critical for developing interpretable and accurate predictive models. We present a method for systematically selecting molecular descriptor features and developing interpretable machine learning models without sacrificing accuracy. Our method simplifies the process of selecting features by reducing feature multicollinearity and enables discoveries of new relationships between global properties and molecular descriptors. To demonstrate our approach, we developed models for predicting melting point, boiling point, flash point, yield sooting index, and net heat of combustion with the help of the Tree-based Pipeline Optimization Tool (TPOT). For training, we used publicly available experimental data for up to 8351 molecules. Our models accurately predict various molecular properties for organic molecules (mean absolute percent error (MAPE) ranges from 3.3% to 10.5%) and provide a set of features that are well-correlated to the property. This method enables researchers to explore sets of features that significantly contribute to the prediction of the property, offering new scientific insights. To help accelerate early stage biofuel research and development, we also integrated the data and models into a open-source, interactive web tool.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Micro-cantilever beam experiments and modeling in porous polycrystalline UO 2

Understanding the impact of microstructure on the thermo-mechanical behavior of oxide nuclear fuels is vital to predicting their performance through multiscale models. Evaluating the mechanical properties at the sub-grain length scale is key to developing these multiscale models. In this work, 3D finite element (FE) models were constructed to simulate the micrometer-scale bending of micro-cantilever beams fabricated using porous polycrystalline uranium dioxide (UO 2 ) and tested at room temperature. Here, the results showed that the porosity and elastic anisotropy of individual grains can play a significant role in determining the effective mechanical properties of the material deduced from the tests. Specifically, the porosity had a non-negligible effect, given that the pore size was of the same order of magnitude as the dimensions of the micro-beams. Correlations between load-deflection data, pore location, and elastic properties (effective Young's modulus) were investigated using UO 2 micro-beam FE models, where pore clusters were included and placed at different locations along the length of the beam. Results indicated that the presence of pore clusters near the substrate, i.e., the clamp of the micro-cantilever beam, has the strongest effect on the load-deflection behavior, with the porosity leading to a reduction of stiffness that is the largest for any location of the pore clusters. Furthermore, it was also found that pore clusters located towards the middle of the span and close to the end of the beam have a comparatively small effect on the load-deflection behavior. Therefore, it is concluded that accurate estimates of Young's modulus can be obtained from micro-cantilever experiments after accounting for porosity on the one third of the beam length close to the clamp. This, in turn, provides an avenue to improve microscale experiments and their analysis in porous, anisotropic elastic materials.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Using Data-Driven Prediction of Downstream 1D River Flow to Overcome the Challenges of Hydrologic River Modeling

Methods for downstream river flow prediction can be categorized into physics-based and empirical approaches. Although based on well-studied physical relationships, physics-based models rely on numerous hydrologic variables characteristic of the specific river system that can be costly to acquire. Moreover, simulation is often computationally intensive. Conversely, empirical models require less information about the system being modeled and can capture a system’s interactions based on a smaller set of observed data. This article introduces two empirical methods to predict downstream hydraulic variables based on observed stream data: a linear programming (LP) model, and a convolutional neural network (CNN). We apply both empirical models within the Colorado River system to a site located on the Green River, downstream of the Yampa River confluence and Flaming Gorge Dam, and compare it to the physics-based model Streamflow Synthesis and Reservoir Regulation (SSARR) currently used by federal agencies. Results show that both proposed models significantly outperform the SSARR model. Moreover, the CNN model outperforms the LP model for hourly predictions whereas both perform similarly for daily predictions. Although less accurate than the CNN model at finer temporal resolution, the LP model is ideal for linear water scheduling tools.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Self-supervised and multi-fidelity learning for extended predictive soil spectroscopy

Infrared spectroscopy is a cost-effective, non-destructive, and environmentally benign technology that is increasingly recognized as an important solution for meeting the global demand for soil data. While both near-infrared (NIR) and mid-infrared (MIR) diffuse reflectance spectroscopy enable rapid estimation of soil properties, they present a significant trade-off: NIR offers superior scalability and lower operational costs, whereas MIR provides higher analytical fidelity by capturing fundamental molecular vibrations. In this study, we propose a self-supervised, multi-fidelity learning framework designed to bridge this gap. Our approach leverages large-scale MIR spectral libraries to learn a compact, transferable latent representation, into which NIR spectra are subsequently aligned for downstream prediction. The workflow consists of pretraining a latent model on a large MIR library, adapting the representation using a smaller paired NIR–MIR dataset, and evaluating generalization on an independent external test set. Across a range of chemical and physical soil properties, we found that MIR-derived embeddings improved prediction accuracy relative to baseline models that used raw MIR inputs. Predictions derived from the spectrum conversion (NIR to MIR) task did not match the performance of the original MIR spectra but were similar or superior to predictive performance of NIR-only models, suggesting the unified spectral latent space can effectively leverage the larger and more diverse MIR dataset for prediction of soil properties not well represented in current NIR libraries.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Investigation of the Performance and Explainability Tradeoffs for Machine-Learning Models for Predictive Maintenance of Circulating Water Systems in Nuclear Power Plants

Predictive maintenance (PdM) has shown great potential for achieving substantial cost savings and enhancing the economic competitiveness of nuclear power plants (NPPs) in today's energy market. Among the different modeling approaches that exist, machine learning (ML) tools in particular have a demonstrated ability to handle high dimensional and multivariate data and to extract hidden relationships within data in industrial environments. While ML methods show great potential, their lack of explainability---especially for black-box models---is a major hurdle to their adoption. Moreover, considering the supposed trade-off between explainability and performance challenges, careful consideration must be made as to which of these quality aspects takes precedence in light of multiple modeling options, resource availability, and domain characteristics. The present work evaluates the performance of six ML models, each with a different degree of explainability, in classifying the conditions of circulating water pumps (CWPs) by utilizing sensor data from nuclear power plants. To determine the drivers behind the trade-offs presented by this array of models, this work also tests different combinations of CWP units as the training and testing data, degrees of data imbalance, and objective functions for hyperparameter tuning. It was found that black-box models tend to afford superior performance in cases where there are far more instances of one type of labeled data than of any other type. It is recommended that a guided procedure be followed for designing and delivering an ML system that is sufficiently explainable to all involved stakeholders.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Fast and accurate influenza forecasting in the United States with Inferno

Infectious disease forecasting is an emerging field and has the potential to improve public health through anticipatory resource allocation, situational awareness, and mitigation planning. By way of exploring and operationalizing disease forecasting, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has hosted FluSight since the 2013/14 flu season, an annual flu forecasting challenge. Since FluSight’s onset, forecasters have developed and improved forecasting models in an effort to provide more timely, reliable, and accurate information about the likely progression of the outbreak. While improving the predictive performance of these forecasting models is often the primary objective, it is also important for a forecasting model to run quickly, facilitating further model development and improvement while providing flexibility when deployed in a real-time setting. In this vein I introduce Inferno, a fast and accurate flu forecasting model inspired by Dante, the top performing model in the 2018/19 FluSight challenge. When pseudoprospectively compared to all models that participated in FluSight 2018/19, Inferno would have placed 2nd in the national and regional challenge as well as the state challenge, behind only Dante. Inferno, however, runs in minutes and is trivially parallelizable, while Dante takes hours to run, representing a significant operational improvement with minimal impact to performance. Forecasting challenges like FluSight should continue to monitor and evaluate how they can be modified and expanded to incentivize the development of forecasting models that benefit public health.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dynamic Performance Comparison and Prediction based on Distribution-level Phasor Measurement Units

This paper introduces a new distribution level Phasor Measurement Unit (PMU) which adopts advanced hardware components and structure. The hardware parameters from the new PMU and the existing PMU are used to build a simulation model to predict the PMU performance. Therefore, a real-world testbench is built and four distribution level PMUs are tested under the steady-state and dynamic tests. The quantitative experiment result confirms the prediction model which could guide future PMU design, and also verifies the accuracy of the new PMU on the synchrophasor and frequency measurements in multiple scenarios.

Wu, Yuru↗
DOE OSTI2024

Tokamak divertor plasma emulation with machine learning

Abstract Future tokamak devices that aim to create conditions relevant to power plant operations must consider strategies for mitigating damage to plasma facing components in the divertor. One of the goals of MAST-U tokamak operations is to inform these considerations by researching advanced divertor configurations that aid stable plasma detachment. Machine design, scenario planning and detachment control would all greatly benefit from tools that enable rapid calculation of scenario-relevant quantities given some input parameters. This paper presents a method for generating large, simulated scrape-off layer data sets, which was applied to generate a data set of steady-state Hermes-3 simulations of the MAST-U tokamak. A machine learning model was constructed using a Bayesian approach to hyperparameter optimisation to predict diagnosable output quantities given control-relevant input features. The resulting best-performing model, which is based on a feedforward neural network, achieves high accuracy when predicting electron temperature at the divertor target and carbon impurity radiation front position and runs in around 1 ms in inference mode. Techniques for interpreting the predictions made by the model were applied, and a high-resolution parameter scan of upstream conditions was performed to demonstrate the utility of rapidly generating accurate predictions using the emulator. This work represents a step forward in the design of machine learning-driven emulators of tokamak exhaust simulation codes in operational modes relevant to divertor detachment control and plasma scenario design.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

An a priori evaluation of a principal component and artificial neural network based combustion model in diesel engine conditions

A principal component analysis (PCA) and artificial neural network (ANN) based chemistry tabulation approach is presented. ANNs are used to map the thermochemical state onto a low-dimensional manifold consisting of five control variables that have been identified using PCA. Three canonical configurations are considered to train the PCA-ANN model: a series of homogeneous reactors, a nonpremixed flamelet, and a two-dimensional lifted flame. The performance of the model in predicting the thermochemical manifold of a spatially-developing turbulent jet flame in diesel engine thermochemical conditions is a priori evaluated using direct numerical simulation (DNS) data. The PCA-ANN approach is compared with a conventional tabulation approach (tabulation using ad hoc defined control variables and linear interpolation). The PCA-ANN model provides higher accuracy and requires several orders of magnitude less memory. Here, these observations indicate that the PCA-ANN model is superior for chemistry tabulation, especially for modelling complex chemistries that present multiple combustion modes as observed in diesel combustion. The performance of the PCA-ANN model is then compared to the optimal estimator, i.e. the conditional mean from the DNS. The results indicate that the PCA-ANN model gives high prediction accuracy, comparable to the optimal estimator, especially for major species and the thermophysical properties. Higher errors are observed for the minor species and reaction rate predictions when compared to the optimal estimator. It is shown that the prediction of minor species and reaction rates can be improved by using training data that exhibits a variation of parameters as observed in the turbulent flame. The output of the ANN is analysed to assess mass conservation. It is observed that the ANN incurs a mean absolute error of 0.05% in mass conservation. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that this error can be reduced by modifying the cost function of the ANN to penalise for deviation from mass conservation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dynamic Modeling and Simulation of a Subcritical Coal-Fired Power Plant under Load-Following Conditions

Dynamic models for power plants that capture realistic general process trends and effects of manipulated variables are needed to improve load-following, while minimizing carbon footprint. In this work, a dynamic modeling approach and simulation results for subcritical coal-fired power plant components are presented. These encompass simulation of the dynamics in the fireside, including the effects of fuel, air combustion, and the dynamics of the entire waterside and power generation sections. This model development enables the simulation and analysis of the important short and long-time scale dynamics of components such as heaters, evaporative loop, and power generation units. Furthermore, additional variables in the power generation section are introduced to improve model accuracy, extending the prediction capability of subcritical power plant models and opening new opportunities for research in operator training, optimization, and advanced model-based controller design that are based on these models. The change in process gain for different ramp rates associated with disturbance signals that affect process variables is also explored and a correlation developed. This provides opportunities to study disturbance rejection control implementation and adaptation for scenarios with such variations in ramp rates. The prediction capabilities of selected components are compared to data available in literature, with the obtained root mean squared error ranges that reflect the model performance and quality of predictions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Development of QSAR models to predict blood-brain barrier permeability

Assessing drug permeability across the blood-brain barrier (BBB) is important when evaluating the abuse potential of new pharmaceuticals as well as developing novel therapeutics that target central nervous system disorders. One of the gold-standard in vivo methods for determining BBB permeability is rodent log BB; however, like most in vivo methods, it is time-consuming and expensive. In the present study, two statistical-based quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models were developed to predict BBB permeability of drugs based on their chemical structure. The in vivo BBB permeability data were harvested for 921 compounds from publicly available literature, non-proprietary drug approval packages, and University of Washington’s Drug Interaction Database. The cross-validation performance statistics for the BBB models ranged from 82 to 85% in sensitivity and 80–83% in negative predictivity. Additionally, the performance of newly developed models was assessed using an external validation set comprised of 83 chemicals. Overall, performance of individual models ranged from 70 to 75% in sensitivity, 70–72% in negative predictivity, and 78–86% in coverage. The predictive performance was further improved to 93% in coverage by combining predictions across the two software programs. These new models can be rapidly deployed to predict blood brain barrier permeability of pharmaceutical candidates and reduce the use of experimental animals.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Reinforcement learning based automated history matching for improved hydrocarbon production forecast

History matching aims to find a numerical reservoir model that can be used to predict the reservoir performance. An engineer and model calibration (data inversion) method are required to adjust various parameters/properties of the numerical model in order to match the reservoir production history. In this study, we develop deep neural networks within the reinforcement learning framework to achieve automated history matching that will reduce engineers’ efforts, human bias, automatically and intelligently explore the parameter space, and remove the need of large set of labeled training data. To that end, a fast-marching-based reservoir simulator is encapsulated as an environment for the proposed reinforcement learning. The deep neural-network-based learning agent interacts with the reservoir simulator within reinforcement learning framework to achieve the automated history matching. Reinforcement learning techniques, such as discrete Deep Q Network and continuous Deep Deterministic Policy Gradients, are used toth, used to train the learning agents. The continuous actions enable the Deep Deterministic Policy Gradients to explore more states at each iteration in a a learning episode; consequently, a better history matching is achieved using this algorithm as compared to Deep Q Network. For simplified dual-target composite reservoir models, the best history-matching performances of the discrete and continuous learning methods in terms of normalized root mean square errors are 0.0447 and 0.0038, respectively. Furthermore, our study shows that continuous action space achieved by the deep deterministic policy gradient drastically outperforms deep Q network.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian learning for rapid prediction of lithium-ion battery-cycling protocols

Advancing lithium-ion battery technology requires the optimization of cycling protocols. A new data-driven methodology is demonstrated for rapid, accurate prediction of the cycle life obtained by new cycling protocols using a single test lasting only 3 cycles, enabling rapid exploration of cycling protocol design spaces with orders of magnitude reduction in testing time. We achieve this by combining lifetime early prediction with a hierarchical Bayesian model (HBM) to rapidly predict performance distributions without the need for extensive repetitive testing. The methodology is applied to a comprehensive dataset of lithium-iron-phosphate/graphite comprising 29 different fast-charging protocols. HBM alone provides high protocol-lifetime prediction performance, with 6.5% of overall test average percent error, after cycling only one battery to failure. Here, by combining HBM with a battery lifetime prediction model, we achieve a test error of 8.8% using a single 3-cycle test. In addition, the generalizability of the HBM approach is demonstrated for lithium-manganese-cobalt-oxide/graphite cells.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2020

ASSESSING FUEL PROPERTY EFFECTS ON CAVITATION AND EROSION PROPENSITY USING A COMPUTATIONAL FUEL SCREENING TOOL

To advance compression ignition combustion strategies, researchers have evaluated fuel property effects and their impact on achieving higher efficiencies and lower emissions levels relative to current capabilities. Within the Department of Energy's Co-Optima initiative, there has been a recent focus on understanding the influence of fuel properties on fuel injection performance. To help identify candidate fuels that can meet desired injector performance metrics, a computational fuel screening tool is under development that can link fuel properties with the tendency of a given fuel to cavitate and lead to cavitation-induced erosion. In the initial development of this tool, five liquid fuel properties were selected to represent candidate fuels, namely density, viscosity, vapor pressure, surface tension, and heat of vaporization. A design of experiments methodology was employed to generate a set of pseudo fuel cases, which can represent the main effects and interactions among the fuel properties and be related to cavitation erosion predictions. Large eddy simulations were performed using a mixture modeling approach to predict the cavitation and erosion propensity of these pseudo-fuels in terms of the mean fuel vapor mole fraction and stored impact energy from repeated cloud collapse events. The low order regression models generated from this study revealed the importance of liquid fuel density on cavitation formation, whereas liquid viscosity was found to have a strong negative correlation with erosion severity. The surrogate models were then used in the fuel screening tool to rank the cavitation and erosion tendency of four candidate single-component fuels: methyl decanoate, isooctane, ethanol and n-dodecane. While the fuel screening tool was not able to quantitatively predict the cavitation and erosion response metrics, the tool was able to accurately rank the relative cavitation and erosion propensity of the four fuels. Overall, ethanol and iso-octane were observed to produce the highest levels of cavitation and erosion, respectively.

cavitation-induced erosion↗