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xesn: Echo state networks powered by Xarray and Dask

Xesn is a Python package that allows scientists to easily design Echo State Networks (ESNs) for forecasting problems. ESNs are a Recurrent Neural Network architecture introduced by Jaeger (2001) that are part of a class of techniques termed Reservoir Computing. One defining characteristic of these techniques is that all internal weights are determined by a handful of global, scalar parameters, thereby avoiding problems during backpropagation and reducing training time significantly. Because this architecture is conceptually simple, many scientists implement ESNs from scratch, leading to questions about computational performance. Xesn offers a straightforward, standard implementation of ESNs that operates efficiently on CPU and GPU hardware. The package leverages optimization tools to automate the parameter selection process, so that scientists can reduce the time finding a good architecture and focus on using ESNs for their domain application. Importantly, the package flexibly handles forecasting tasks for out-of-core, multi-dimensional datasets, eliminating the need to write parallel programming code. Xesn was initially developed to handle the problem of forecasting weather dynamics, and so it integrates naturally with Python packages that have become familiar to weather and climate scientists such as Xarray (Hoyer & Hamman, 2017). However, the software is ultimately general enough to be utilized in other domains where ESNs have been useful, such as in signal processing (Jaeger & Haas, 2004).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Optimization of the moderators in the STS preliminary design

This report details the results for an optimization of the dimensions of the moderators in the preliminary design of the Spallation Neutron Source Second Target Station (STS). This study uses the optimization algorithms of Dakota and an unstructured mesh model for the moderators in MCNP. More details on the unstructured mesh model and the automated mesh generation can be found in [3]. Parallel to this effort, the same moderator geometries have been optimized using a constructive solid geometry (CSG) MCNP model. More details on this model and its results can be found in [4]. Three optimal designs are selected for each moderator: one that is optimized for maximum peak brightness, one for maximum time-integrated brightness, and one for a combination of peak and time-integrated brightness. The backbone of the optimization work flow is provided by Dakota. For each set of design parameters requested by Dakota, a new solid geometry is automatically built in Creo and SpaceClaim, and subsequently exported to Attila4MC to generate an unstructured mesh geometry for MCNP. After the MCNP calculation is finished, the objective function (e.g., brightness metric) is returned to Dakota. After the new design has been evaluated, a result-file is written, and Dakota proposes the next set of design parameters to be evaluated. The loop continues until a specified convergence criterion has been met. The design parameters of the cylindrical (upper) moderator include the hydrogen radius, the premoderator thickness (top, bottom, radial), the beryllium radius and the horizontal position of the moderator. The crucial design choice is the hydrogen radius. A radius of 62 mm is shown to provide the maximum time-integrated brightness. The maximum peak brightness occurs with a radius of 40 mm. A combined (middle) design, which balances peak and time-integrated brightnesses, is obtained with a hydrogen radius of 50 mm. The premoderator thicknesses and the beryllium radius are slightly larger in the design optimized for time-integrated brightness than in the design optimized for peak brightness. The sensitivity to these two parameters is relatively small close to the optimal configurations. The hydrogen vessel and vacuum vessel wall thicknesses are dependent on the radius of the liquid hydrogen due to structural integrity requirements. The increased wall thicknesses for larger vessels significantly penalize the time-integrated brightness, with the maximum obtainable value reduced by more than 10% relative to earlier studies which used fixed vessel wall thicknesses. The impact of the variable wall thicknesses is much less for the peak brightness and combined brightness designs. The design parameters of the tube (lower) moderator selected for the optimization are the tube length, the annular premoderator thickness, the beryllium radius and the horizontal position of the moderator. The tube length is the crucial parameter and is chosen large (210 mm) and small (125 mm) in the designs optimized for time-integrated and peak brightness respectively. A combined optimal design has a tube length of 170 mm. The premoderator thickness and the beryllium radius are chosen larger in the design optimized for time-integrated brightness.

42 ENGINEERING↗

LIS-Hydro: Authoritative Source for OCONUS Hydro-Intelligence

U.S. military forces are often tasked to participate in a variety of transboundary water-related decision-making activities, including humanitarian assistance operations through Department of State tasking, support of in-country infrastructure development activities that help develop or improve diplomatic relationships, and support of transboundary water treaty negotiations or disputes to reduce risk of conflict caused by water security issues. The U.S. intelligence communities have identified the coordination over shared water resources as an area of significant concern to U.S. national security (U.S. National Defense Strategy, 2018). Such transboundary water issues are projected to intensify in the future under increasingly complex population dynamics, political tensions due to parallel issues, and a changing climate. A 2017 joint NASA, USACE/RDC, and U.S. Air Force co-sponsored workshop revealed a lack of sufficient decision support tools and access to timely technical and contextual information needed to assess and respond to potential water-related threats around the world. The need for an integrated operational service, with the capacity to combine and synthesize hydrological modeling, assimilation, forecasting, and visualization capabilities across the U.S. Government, was highlighted as a key recommendation. In direct response, a subset of the U.S. Department of Defense, National Intelligence Community, and Oak Ridge National Laboratory are collaborating on the development of a fully integrated hydro-modeling and streamflow prediction system (i.e., LIS-Hydro). Completion of the project and sustainment of the operational capability by Air Force Weather will establish a national asset to assist federal agencies implement government-wide strategies around water resources (U.S. Global Water Strategy, 2017). The hydrological products and services will, for the very first time, establish a routinely available authoritative source of global water intelligence information supporting war-fighters, planners, and decision makers at all echelons and services of the U.S. military, Federal government, and intelligence community. A summary of the interagency scientific collaboration in addressing some of the key gaps and needs identified during the 2017 workshop will be presented.

Land Information System↗

Computational Study of Oxidative Etch Pitting in FiberForm and the Effect on Its Material Properties

Erosion of carbon due to oxidation does not occur uniformly but through the formation of localized etch pits because of active surface sites. These active sites are formed due to the presence of atomic defects on the carbon surface, and have much higher reactivity compared to average non-defective sites. Thus, these active sites are first to react during ablation, resulting in their removal. This causes all the neighboring atoms to be defective and increase their reactivity, thus leading to the localized carbon removal around these “active” sites. In this manner, these highly reactive defective sites serve as nucleation sites for the formation and growth of etch pits with potentially detrimental effects on the structural integrity. In order to understand the influence of these etch pits on the material properties of carbon fiber microstructures, we have developed a new capability within direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) to capture the etch pit formation process. This capability is developed within the DSMC code SPARTA (Stochastic PArallel Rarefied-gas Time-accurate Analyzer) and can model the material removal in presence of active sites leading to the formation of etch pits. The focus of the current work will be to study the effect of etch pits on the material properties of FiberForm, a commonly used base material within many thermal protection system materials (TPS). The microstructure of virgin FiberForm obtained directly from X-ray microtomography experiments is used within SPARTA to obtain the ablated geometries with etch pits. These pitted microstructures are then imported within the Porous Microstructure Analysis (PuMA) software and various material properties such as elasticity, thermal conductivity, and permeability are computed. The variation of these properties as a result of the complex evolution of the surface topology due to etch pit formation is studied and analyzed. Furthermore, the effect of pitting is compared to the case of shrinking fibers, which has been the standard for modelling ablation of carbon structures; and significant differences are observed. Thus, such a physically realistic modeling of material removal through the formation of etch pits will be helpful in predicting the degradation of carbon-based TPS more accurately during oxidation; as well as other mechanisms such as spallation, which involves the removal of chunks of material into the flow due to etch pit growth. This will ultimately improve our understanding of the failure modes in these materials due to ablation.

Carbon Ablators↗

Computational Study of Oxidative Etch Pitting in FiberForm and the Effect on Its Material Properties

Erosion of carbon due to oxidation does not occur uniformly but through the formation of localized etch pits because of active surface sites. These active sites are formed due to the presence of atomic defects on the carbon surface, and have much higher reactivity compared to average non-defective sites. Thus, these active sites are first to react during ablation, resulting in their removal. This causes all the neighboring atoms to be defective and increase their reactivity, thus leading to the localized carbon removal around these “active” sites. In this manner, these highly reactive defective sites serve as nucleation sites for the formation and growth of etch pits with potentially detrimental effects on the structural integrity. In order to understand the influence of these etch pits on the material properties of carbon fiber microstructures, we have developed a new capability within direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) to capture the etch pit formation process. This capability is developed within the DSMC code SPARTA (Stochastic PArallel Rarefied-gas Time-accurate Analyzer) and can model the material removal in presence of active sites leading to the formation of etch pits. The focus of the current work will be to study the effect of etch pits on the material properties of FiberForm, a commonly used base material within many thermal protection system materials (TPS). The microstructure of virgin FiberForm obtained directly from X-ray microtomography experiments is used within SPARTA to obtain the ablated geometries with etch pits. These pitted microstructures are then imported within the Porous Microstructure Analysis (PuMA) software and various material properties such as elasticity, thermal conductivity, and permeability are computed. The variation of these properties as a result of the complex evolution of the surface topology due to etch pit formation is studied and analyzed. Furthermore, the effect of pitting is compared to the case of shrinking fibers, which has been the standard for modelling ablation of carbon structures; and significant differences are observed. Thus, such a physically realistic modeling of material removal through the formation of etch pits will be helpful in predicting the degradation of carbon-based TPS more accurately during oxidation; as well as other mechanisms such as spallation, which involves the removal of chunks of material into the flow due to etch pit growth. This will ultimately improve our understanding of the failure modes in these materials due to ablation.

Carbon Ablators↗

Simulation of Oxidative Etch Pit Formation and Growth on FiberForm

Erosion of carbon surfaces due to oxidation does not occur uniformly but through the formation of localized etch pits because of active surface sites. These active sites are formed due to the presence of atomic defects on the carbon surface and have much higher reactivity compared to average non-defective sites. Thus, these active sites are the first to react during ablation, resulting in their removal. This causes all the neighboring atoms to be defective, and increasing their reactivity, thus leading to localized carbon removal around these “active” sites. In this manner, these highly reactive defects serve as nucleation sites for the formation and growth of etch pits, with detrimental effects on the structural integrity. In order to understand the influence of these etch pits on the material properties of carbon fiber microstructures, we have developed a new capability within direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) to capture the etch pit formation process. This capability is developed within the DSMC code SPARTA (Stochastic PArallel Rarefied-gas Time-accurate Analyzer) and can model the material removal in the presence of active sites leading to the formation of etch pits. The focus of the current work will be to study the effect of etch pits on the material properties of FiberForm, the precursor substrate of the PICA Thermal Protection System (TPS) material. The microstructure of virgin FiberForm obtained directly from X-ray microtomography scans is used within SPARTA to obtain the ablated geometries with etch pits. These pitted microstructures are then imported into the Porous Microstructure Analysis (PuMA) software and various material properties such as thermal conductivity, elasticity, and permeability are computed. The variation of these properties because of the complex evolution of the surface topology due to the formation of etch pits is studied and analyzed. Furthermore, the effect of pitting is compared to the case of uniform radial shrinking of fibers, which has been the standard for modelling ablation of carbon structures, and significant differences are observed. Thus, a physically realistic model of material removal through the formation of etch pits will be helpful in predicting the degradation of carbon-based TPS more accurately during oxidation; as well as other mechanisms such as spallation, which involves the removal of chunks of material into the flow due to the growth of etch pits. This will ultimately improve our understanding of the failure modes in these materials due to ablation.

DSMC↗

Simulation of Oxidative Etch Pit Formation and Growth on FiberForm

Erosion of carbon surfaces due to oxidation does not occur uniformly but through the formation of localized etch pits because of active surface sites. These active sites are formed due to the presence of atomic defects on the carbon surface and have much higher reactivity compared to average non-defective sites. Thus, these active sites are the first to react during ablation, resulting in their removal. This causes all the neighboring atoms to be defective, and increasing their reactivity, thus leading to localized carbon removal around these “active” sites. In this manner, these highly reactive defects serve as nucleation sites for the formation and growth of etch pits, with detrimental effects on the structural integrity. In order to understand the influence of these etch pits on the material properties of carbon fiber microstructures, we have developed a new capability within direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) to capture the etch pit formation process. This capability is developed within the DSMC code SPARTA (Stochastic PArallel Rarefied-gas Time-accurate Analyzer) and can model the material removal in the presence of active sites leading to the formation of etch pits. The focus of the current work will be to study the effect of etch pits on the material properties of FiberForm, the precursor substrate of the PICA Thermal Protection System (TPS) material. The microstructure of virgin FiberForm obtained directly from X-ray microtomography scans is used within SPARTA to obtain the ablated geometries with etch pits. These pitted microstructures are then imported into the Porous Microstructure Analysis (PuMA) software and various material properties such as thermal conductivity, elasticity, and permeability are computed. The variation of these properties because of the complex evolution of the surface topology due to the formation of etch pits is studied and analyzed. Furthermore, the effect of pitting is compared to the case of uniform radial shrinking of fibers, which has been the standard for modelling ablation of carbon structures, and significant differences are observed. Thus, a physically realistic model of material removal through the formation of etch pits will be helpful in predicting the degradation of carbon-based TPS more accurately during oxidation; as well as other mechanisms such as spallation, which involves the removal of chunks of material into the flow due to the growth of etch pits. This will ultimately improve our understanding of the failure modes in these materials due to ablation.

DSMC↗

Self-Scheduling Parallel Methods for Multiple Serial Codes with Application to WOPWOP

This paper presents a scheme for efficiently running a large number of serial jobs on parallel computers. Two examples are given of computer programs that run relatively quickly, but often they must be run numerous times to obtain all the results needed. It is very common in science and engineering to have codes that are not massive computing challenges in themselves, but due to the number of instances that must be run, they do become large-scale computing problems. The two examples given here represent common problems in aerospace engineering: aerodynamic panel methods and aeroacoustic integral methods. The first example simply solves many systems of linear equations. This is representative of an aerodynamic panel code where someone would like to solve for numerous angles of attack. The complete code for this first example is included in the appendix so that it can be readily used by others as a template. The second example is an aeroacoustics code (WOPWOP) that solves the Ffowcs Williams Hawkings equation to predict the far-field sound due to rotating blades. In this example, one quite often needs to compute the sound at numerous observer locations, hence parallelization is utilized to automate the noise computation for a large number of observers.

Long, Lyle N.↗

A Fourier collocation time domain method for numerically solving Maxwell's equations

A new method for solving Maxwell's equations in the time domain for arbitrary values of permittivity, conductivity, and permeability is presented. Spatial derivatives are found by a Fourier transform method and time integration is performed using a second order, semi-implicit procedure. Electric and magnetic fields are collocated on the same grid points, rather than on interleaved points, as in the Finite Difference Time Domain (FDTD) method. Numerical results are presented for the propagation of a 2-D Transverse Electromagnetic (TEM) mode out of a parallel plate waveguide and into a dielectric and conducting medium.

Shebalin, John V.↗

Mutual impedance of parallel and perpendicular coplanar surface monopoles

One dimensional integral formulas are derived for mutual impedance of arbitrary size, coplanar, parallel, and perpendicular surface monopoles. The integrals in formulas are expressed as exponential integrals where possible. The mutual impedance expression for parallel monopoles is a summation of exponential integrals and one-dimensional integrals. For perpendicular monopoles, the mutual impedance is in closed form, containing exponential integrals only. The final expressions are in a form suitable for numerical computation. Since the expressions contain at most one-dimensional integrals, they can be utilized to reduce the matrix filling time in the moment method formulations, especially when inhomogeneous sectioning is preferred. Additionally, they can be used in rectangular surface patch modeling of conducting surfaces with edges which are at an angle to the surface patches, providing the angle is small. To this end, the expressions were utilized in the moment method analysis of linearly tapered slot antennas. Very good accuracy was obtained with a reduction in computer time.

Koksal, Adnan↗

Neural Networks for Nuclear Reactions in MAESTROeX

We demonstrate the use of neural networks to accelerate the reaction steps in the MAESTROeX stellar hydrodynamics code. A traditional MAESTROeX simulation uses a stiff ODE integrator for the reactions; here, we employ a ResNet architecture and describe details relating to the architecture, training, and validation of our networks. Our customized approach includes options for the form of the loss functions, a demonstration that the use of parallel neural networks leads to increased accuracy, and a description of a perturbational approach in the training step that robustifies the model. We test our approach on millimeter-scale flames using a single-step, 3-isotope network describing the first stages of carbon fusion occurring in Type Ia supernovae. We train the neural networks using simulation data from a standard MAESTROeX simulation, and show that the resulting model can be effectively applied to different flame configurations. This work lays the groundwork for more complex networks, and iterative time-integration strategies that can leverage the efficiency of the neural networks.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

X-57 Flight Systems Integration Path

The foundation for a safe and successful flight test of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) X-57 Maxwell all-electric experimental airplane, or any X-Plane, is comprehensive system testing on the ground. This test campaign includes verification and validation (V&V) that the integrated system operates as designed and expected, as well as understanding how the system reacts and responds to failures that can occur during flight by performing failure modes and effects testing (FMET). The aircraft should be in the final flight configuration for these test activities because any modifications, even those that appear insignificant, could affect test outcomes. Although the plan was to perform V&V and FMET testing once the airplane was in the flight configuration, due to multiple component redesigns, concurrent software development, and other problems with on-aircraft testing, the X-57 Maxwell never made it into a full-flight configuration. As a result, a build-up approach was followed to test software and hardware as they became ready in order to continue making progress wherever possible. Using this approach revealed problems with the hardware and software faster than waiting for a full-flight configuration, allowing solutions to be found more quickly and in parallel with other project tasks. Other than unloaded motor testing in a lab setting, the only other test setup was on the airplane itself. On-aircraft testing was preferrable in order to test things as close to a flight configuration as possible but was time consuming due to the requirements for testing on the airplane. To overcome some of the on-aircraft barriers, off-aircraft test configurations, such as the Systems Integration Laboratory (SIL) and hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) setups, were used, but each of these setups had limitations to be considered. As a result, solutions found in the SIL or HIL configurations did not always work as expected on the airplane, resulting in an iterative process between on- and off-aircraft testing to find the final solution. Having a dedicated test platform such as an iron bird that closely represents the aircraft - without flight hardware - would have been the most effective off-aircraft test setup, which could have allowed the project to save time and money and potentially reach flight. This paper will highlight the V&V and FMET considerations and testing prerequisites, the build-up approaches to both software and system testing, the benefits and drawbacks to different test configurations, as well as battery testing and operations.

Kassidy M. Mclaughlin↗

X-57 Flight Systems Integration Path

The foundation for a safe and successful flight test of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) X-57 Maxwell all-electric experimental airplane, or any X-Plane, is comprehensive system testing on the ground. This test campaign includes verification and validation (V&V) that the integrated system operates as designed and expected, as well as understanding how the system reacts and responds to failures that can occur during flight by performing failure modes and effects testing (FMET). The aircraft should be in the final flight configuration for these test activities because any modifications, even those that appear insignificant, could affect test outcomes. Although the plan was to perform V&V and FMET testing once the airplane was in the flight configuration, due to multiple component redesigns, concurrent software development, and other problems with on-aircraft testing, the X-57 Maxwell never made it into a full-flight configuration. As a result, a build-up approach was followed to test software and hardware as they became ready in order to continue making progress wherever possible. Using this approach revealed problems with the hardware and software faster than waiting for a full-flight configuration, allowing solutions to be found more quickly and in parallel with other project tasks. Other than unloaded motor testing in a lab setting, the only other test setup was on the airplane itself. On-aircraft testing was preferrable in order to test things as close to a flight configuration as possible but was time consuming due to the requirements for testing on the airplane. To overcome some of the on-aircraft barriers, off-aircraft test configurations, such as the Systems Integration Laboratory (SIL) and hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) setups, were used, but each of these setups had limitations to be considered. As a result, solutions found in the SIL or HIL configurations did not always work as expected on the airplane, resulting in an iterative process between on- and off-aircraft testing to find the final solution. Having a dedicated test platform such as an iron bird that closely represents the aircraft - without flight hardware - would have been the most effective off-aircraft test setup, which could have allowed the project to save time and money and potentially reach flight. This paper will highlight the V&V and FMET considerations and testing prerequisites, the build-up approaches to both software and system testing, the benefits and drawbacks to different test configurations, as well as battery testing and operations.

Kassidy McLaughlin↗

On the time-weighted quadratic sum of linear discrete systems

A method is proposed for obtaining the time-weighted quadratic sum for linear discrete systems. The formula of the weighted quadratic sum is obtained from matrix z-transform formulation. In addition, it is shown that this quadratic sum can be derived in a recursive form for several useful weighted functions. The discussion presented parallels that of MacFarlane (1963) for weighted quadratic integral for linear continuous systems.

Jury, E. I.↗

Effects of free-stream turbulence on diffuser performance

An experimental evaluation of the effects of free-stream turbulence on the performance of a subsonic two-dimensional diffuser has been made. Increases of the diffuser's static pressure recovery coefficient of 11.3 and 23.9 percent at total included divergence angles of 12 and 20 degrees respectively were obtained when the value of the inlet integral free-stream scale of turbulence in the flow direction was at least 7.2 times larger than the inlet boundary layer displacement thickness, when the inlet total free-stream turbulence intensity was at least 3.5 percent, and when the axes of upstream rods used to generate turbulence were perpendicular to the flow and parallel to the diverging walls of the diffuser. It is hypothesized that a larger scale of turbulence with the specified eddy axis orientation transmits the free-stream energy to the walls more effectively and, when coupled with large turbulence intensities, are mechanisms which act to decrease the distortion and delay separation within the diffuser.

Hoffmann, J. A.↗

Scheduling with genetic algorithms

In many domains, scheduling a sequence of jobs is an important function contributing to the overall efficiency of the operation. At Boeing, we develop schedules for many different domains, including assembly of military and commercial aircraft, weapons systems, and space vehicles. Boeing is under contract to develop scheduling systems for the Space Station Payload Planning System (PPS) and Payload Operations and Integration Center (POIC). These applications require that we respect certain sequencing restrictions among the jobs to be scheduled while at the same time assigning resources to the jobs. We call this general problem scheduling and resource allocation. Genetic algorithms (GA's) offer a search method that uses a population of solutions and benefits from intrinsic parallelism to search the problem space rapidly, producing near-optimal solutions. Good intermediate solutions are probabalistically recombined to produce better offspring (based upon some application specific measure of solution fitness, e.g., minimum flowtime, or schedule completeness). Also, at any point in the search, any intermediate solution can be accepted as a final solution; allowing the search to proceed longer usually produces a better solution while terminating the search at virtually any time may yield an acceptable solution. Many processes are constrained by restrictions of sequence among the individual jobs. For a specific job, other jobs must be completed beforehand. While there are obviously many other constraints on processes, it is these on which we focussed for this research: how to allocate crews to jobs while satisfying job precedence requirements and personnel, and tooling and fixture (or, more generally, resource) requirements.

Fennel, Theron R.↗

A parallel VLSI architecture for a digital filter using a number theoretic transform

The advantages of a very large scalee integration (VLSI) architecture for implementing a digital filter using fermat number transforms (FNT) are the following: It requires no multiplication. Only additions and bit rotations are needed. It alleviates the usual dynamic range limitation for long sequence FNT's. It utilizes the FNT and inverse FNT circuits 100% of the time. The lengths of the input data and filter sequences can be arbitraty and different. It is regular, simple, and expandable, and as a consequence suitable for VLSI implementation.

Truong, T. K.↗

Development of advanced seal verification

The purpose of this research is to develop a technique to monitor and insure seal integrity with a sensor that has no active elements to burn-out during a long duration activity, such as a leakage test or especially during a mission in space. The original concept proposed is that by implementing fiber optic sensors, changes in the integrity of a seal can be monitored in real time and at no time should the optical fiber sensor fail. The electrical components which provide optical excitation and detection through the fiber are not part of the seal; hence, if these electrical components fail, they can be easily changed without breaking the seal. The optical connections required for the concept to work does present a functional problem to work out. The utility of the optical fiber sensor for seal monitoring should be general enough that the degradation of a seal can be determined before catastrophic failure occurs and appropriate action taken. Two parallel efforts were performed in determining the feasibility of using optical fiber sensors for seal verification. In one study, research on interferometric measurements of the mechanical response of the optical fiber sensors to seal integrity was studied. In a second study, the implementation of the optical fiber to a typical vacuum chamber was implemented and feasibility studies on microbend experiments in the vacuum chamber were performed. Also, an attempt was made to quantify the amount of pressure actually being applied to the optical fiber using finite element analysis software by Algor.

Workman, Gary L.↗