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NASA NTRS2024

Parameterizing Spectral Surface Reflectance Relationships for the Dark Target Aerosol Algorithm Applied to A Geostationary Imager

Originally developed for the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) in polar, sun-synchronous low-earth orbit (LEO), the Dark Target (DT) aerosol retrieval algorithm relies on the assumption of a Surface Reflectance Parameterization (SRP) over land surfaces. Specifically for vegetated and dark-soiled surfaces, values of surface reflectance in blue and red visible-wavelength bands are assumed to be nearly linearly related to each other and to the value in a shortwave infrared (SWIR) wavelength band. This SRP also includes dependencies on scattering angle and a normalized difference vegetation index computed from two SWIR bands (NDVISWIR). As the DT retrieval algorithm is being ported to new sensors to continue and expand the aerosol data record, we assess whether the MODIS-assumed SRP can be used for these sensors. Here, we specifically assess SRP for the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) aboard, the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES)-16/East (ABIE). First, we find that using MODIS-based SRP leads to higher biases and artificial diurnal signatures in aerosol optical depth (AOD)retrievals from ABIE. The primary reason appears to be that geostationary orbit (GEO) encounters an entirely different set of observation geometry than does LEO, primarily with regards to solar angles coupled with fixed view angles. Therefore, we have developed a new SRP for GEO that draws the angular shape of the surface bidirectional reflectance. We also introduce modifications to the parametrization of both red-SWIR and blue-red spectral relationships to include additional information.The revised Red-SWIR SRP includes solar zenith angle, NDVISWIR, and land-type percentage from an ancillary database. The blue-red SRP adds dependencies on the scattering angle and NDVISWIR. The new SRPs improve the AOD retrieval of ABIE in terms of overall less bias and mitigation of the overestimation around local noon. The average bias of DT AOD compared to AERONET AOD shows a reduction from 0.08 to 0.03, while the bias of local solar noon decreases from 0.12 to 0.03.The agreement between DT and AERONET AOD is established through regression slope of 1.06 and y-intercept of 0.01with correlation coefficient is0.74. By using the new SRP, the percentage of data falling within the expected error range (±0.05 + 15%) is notably risen from 54% to 78%.

Mijin Kim↗
NASA NTRS2018

Improvement of Stratospheric Aerosol Extinction Retrieval from OMPS/LP Using a New Aerosol Model

The Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite Limb Profiler (OMPS/LP) has been flying on the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (S-NPP) satellite since October 2011. It is designed to produce ozone and aerosol vertical profiles at 2-kilometer vertical resolution over the entire sunlit globe. Aerosol extinction profiles are computed with Mie theory using radiances measured at 675 nanometers. The operational Version 1.0 (V1.0) aerosol extinction retrieval algorithm assumes a bimodal lognormal aerosol size distribution (ASD) whose parameters were derived by combining an in situ measurement of aerosol microphysics with the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE II) aerosol extinction climatology. Internal analysis indicates that this bimodal lognormal ASD does not sufficiently explain the spectral dependence of LP-measured radiances. In this paper we describe the derivation of an improved aerosol size distribution, designated Version 1.5 (V1.5), for the LP retrieval algorithm. The new ASD uses a gamma function distribution that is derived from Community Aerosol and Radiation Model for Atmospheres (CARMA)-calculated results. A cumulative distribution fit derived from the gamma function ASD gives better agreement with CARMA results at small particle radii than bimodal or unimodal functions. The new ASD also explains the spectral dependence of LP-measured radiances better than the V1.0 ASD. We find that the impact of our choice of ASD on the retrieved extinctions varies strongly with the underlying reflectivity of the scene. Initial comparisons with collocated extinction profiles retrieved at 676 nanometers from the SAGE III instrument on the International Space Station (ISS) show a significant improvement in agreement for the LP V1.5 retrievals. Zonal mean extinction profiles agree to within 10 percent between 19 and 29 kilometers, and regression fits of collocated samples show improved correlation and reduced scatter compared to the V1.0 product. This improved agreement will motivate development of more sophisticated ASDs from CARMA results that incorporate latitude, altitude and seasonal variations in aerosol properties.

Ozone Mapping Profiler Suite Limb Profiler (OMPS/L↗
NASA NTRS2011

Use of Minute-by-Minute Cardiovascular Measurements During Tilt Tests to Strengthen Inference on the Effect of Long-Duration Space Flight on Orthostatic Hypotension

Typical methodology for evaluating the effects of spaceflight on orthostatic hypotension (OH) has been survival analysis of tolerance times from 80 head-up tilt tests. However when scheduled test durations are short, there may not be enough failures to allow survival analysis to adequately estimate and compare the effects of flight phase (e.g. pre-flight, number of days post-flight), flight duration, and their interaction, as well as interactions with effects of interventions or countermeasures. The problem is exacerbated in the presence of a repeated measures design, in which subjects participate in tilt tests during various flight phases. Here we show how it is possible to dramatically improve the efficiency of statistical inference in this setting by making use of the additional information contained in minute-by-minute observations of cardiovascular parameters thought to be reflective of progression towards presyncope during tilt testing. Methods: We retrospectively examined operational tilt test (OTT; 10 -min 80 head-up tilt) data from 20 International Space Station (ISS) and 66 Shuttle astronauts 10 d before launch (L-10), on landing day (R+0) and during recovery (R+1, R+3, R+6-10) depending on the level of participation. Data from 5 ISS astronauts tested on R+0 or R+1 who used non-standard countermeasures were excluded. In addition to OTT survival time, 8 cardiovascular parameters (CP: heart rate, systolic, diastolic, and mean arterial blood pressure, pulse pressure, stroke volume, cardiac output, and total peripheral resistance) that might be predictive of progression towards presyncope were measured every minute of each OTT. Statistical analysis was predicated on a two ]stage model of causation. In the first stage, flight duration and time from landing affect the astronauts' degree of OH, which is manifested in the time trends and variation of the above CPs during OTTs. In the second stage, the behavior of these parameters directly affects OTT survival time. Actual analysis proceeded in the opposite direction. First we identified those CPs or linear combinations that best predicted OTT survival regardless of what spaceflight conditions led to OTT completion or presyncope. From these, we calculated a summary statistic (one per OTT) that best predicted survival. We then used mixed ]model regression analysis to relate changes in the summary statistic to flight phase and duration. Inference on the effects of phase, duration, and their interaction on OH follows directly from this second analysis. Results: A linear combination (W) of diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and stroke volume (SV) was found to be the best predictor of OTT survival using the complete data set of minute-by-minute observations of CPs for each OTT. Furthermore, the log-transformed standard deviation of W (Z = log SW) was found to be a strong predictor of survival in the reduced data set consisting of one observation per OTT. In other words, this measure of variability of W during an OTT was the best indicator of whether or not the subject could complete the 10-min test, with higher variability (i.e. higher values of Z) being associated with greater probability of failure. In the mixed-model regression analysis where Z was now treated as a outcome with flight phase and duration groups (ISS and STS) as predictors, we found that there was a significantly more variability in W (higher values of Z) for both groups at R+0, but with no evidence of an interaction until R+3, when the ISS group still had inflated variability, but not the STS group. Conclusions: Variability of the cardiovascular index W recovers more slowly after long-compared to short-duration spaceflight. Since high variability of W has also been shown to be predictive of OTT failure, a primary manifestation of OH, a logical conclusion is that recovery from OH also is slower after long-duration compared to short-duration spaceflights.

Feiveson, Alan H.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Estimation of Snow Mass Information via Assimilation of C-Band Synthetic Aperture Radar Backscatter Observations Into an Advanced and Surface Model

This study assimilated Sentinel-1 C-band backscatter observations over snow-covered terrain into the Noah-Multiparameterization land surface model using support vector machine (SVM) regression and an ensemble Kalman filter to improve the modeled terrestrial snow mass estimates. The data assimilation (DA) experiment was conducted across Western Colorado from September 2016 to August 2017. As part of the DA experiments, the impact of a rule-based update was evaluated by comparing snow water equivalent (SWE) estimates via DA (with [ DAv1 ] and without [ DAv2 ] the rule-based update) against SNOTEL SWE measurements. Results confirmed that rule-based update helped minimize SVM controllability issues, and in turn, improved the accuracy of SWE estimates relative to both open loop (OL) and DAv2 . Comparison of SWE estimates from Sentinel-1 DAv1 against SNOTEL SWE revealed that 75% of stations showed improvements in bias and correlation coefficient relative to the OL. Assimilated SWE estimates also showed statistical improvements during both the snow accumulation and snow ablation periods. However, unbiased root mean square error showed a slight increase during the snow ablation period due to the large variability in the electromagnetic response of C-band backscatter over deep and/or wet snow. Improvement of the SWE estimates also resulted in improving river discharge estimates compared to in situ measurements. River discharge using Sentinel-1 DAv1 improved the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency at all available stations. These results suggest that physically constrained SVM can serve as an efficient observation operator for snow mass DA through explicit consideration of the first-order C-band scattering mechanisms over different terrestrial snow conditions.

Jongmin Park↗
NASA NTRS2002

[High Pressure Gas Tanks]

Four high-pressure gas tanks, the basis of this study, were especially made by a private contractor and tested before being delivered to NASA Kennedy Space Center. In order to insure 100% reliability of each individual tank the staff at KSC decided to again submit the four tanks under more rigorous tests. These tests were conducted during a period from April 10 through May 8 at KSC. This application further validates the predictive safety model for accident prevention and system failure in the testing of four high-pressure gas tanks at Kennedy Space Center, called Continuous Hazard Tracking and Failure Prediction Methodology (CHTFPM). It is apparent from the variety of barriers available for a hazard control that some barriers will be more successful than others in providing protection. In order to complete the Barrier Analysis of the system, a Task Analysis and a Biomechanical Study were performed to establish the relationship between the degree of biomechanical non-conformities and the anomalies found within the system on particular joints of the body. This relationship was possible to obtain by conducting a Regression Analysis to the previously generated data. From the information derived the body segment with the lowest percentage of non-conformities was the neck flexion with 46.7%. Intense analysis of the system was conducted including Preliminary Hazard Analysis (PHA), Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA), and Barrier Analysis. These analyses resulted in the identification of occurrences of conditions, which may be becoming hazardous in the given system. These conditions, known as dendritics, may become hazards and could result in an accident, system malfunction, or unacceptable risk conditions. A total of 56 possible dendritics were identified. Work sampling was performed to observe the occurrence each dendritic. The out of control points generated from a Weighted c control chart along with a Pareto analysis indicate that the dendritics "Personnel not Wearing Proper Protective and Hose/tubing located in high-traffic area" which account for 59.18% of total dendritic frequency need to be addressed to reduce the chance of a hazard from occurring. However, the occurrences of some dendritics are more important than others. As a result immediate, from a Weighted c perspective, corrective action should be taken to ameliorate the cause of the Class A dendritic "Personnel located under suspended or moving loads" rather than just the most commonly occurring dendritics. In any case the vast majority of data obtained indicates that testing operations possess a relatively high degree of safety.

Quintana, Rolando↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Early Information Parameter-Set Analysis for Satellite Close Approaches using Machine Learning

Understanding orbital mechanics is essential in space flight and navigation applications, and leveraging modern force models for flight path projection remains an important aspect in space mission design and operation. However, force models do not capture all the dynamics or perturbations in the space environment and thus are subject to errors in predicting the state vectors. The further out the predicted miss distance between spacecraft is from the time of closest approach (TCA), the larger the propagated errors in the predicted miss distance at TCA is. The dependency on these force models for spacecraft flight state prediction calls for a more reliable method that can quantify, or even reduce, these propagated errors. With recent advances in the field artificial intelligence, specifically in machine and deep learning algorithms, a model that implements these approaches can improve on the modern force model approach. The goal for this work is to provide an early-information decision-making threshold, in order to prioritize risk assessment implementation, given the ongoing increase of space objects. In analyzing the relationship of several parameters from conjunction data messages(CDMs) and solar information, early information becomes viable in miss distance prediction with unsupervised learning techniques, which learn the parameters that are linked together with miss distance and probability of collision (Pc) variables. Another approach implemented for identifying relationships within CDMs is supervised learning, in which a shallow neural network binary classifier learns to distinguish events with Pc values¡108. These parameters detected in the unsupervised process are then applied to a regression neural network, which predicts the miss distance at TCA for a specific event within a given uncertainty bound. For the regression neural network, a Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) neural network is implemented, which yields memory about each time step in an event. Using an LSTM network, the model learns to predict miss distance within 0.2km of the value measured at TCA. Although there is a limited amount of "close miss" data to train a network, the network learns to associate parameters, like large energy dissipation rates with the secondary object, with an elevated Pc

Brianna I. Robertson↗
NASA NTRS2016

Analyzing Double Delays at Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR)

When weather or congestion impacts the National Airspace System, multiple different Traffic Management Initiatives can be implemented, sometimes with unintended consequences. One particular perceived inequity that is commonly identified is in the interaction between Ground Delay Programs (GDPs) and time based scheduling of internal departures by the Traffic Management Advisor (TMA) (now operationally superseded by the FAA's the Time-Based Flow Management system). Internal departures under TMA scheduling can take large GDP delays, followed by large TMA scheduling delays, because they cannot easily fit into the arrival flow at the runway. In this paper we examine the causes of these double delays through an analysis of arrival operations at Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR) from June to August 2010. TMA scheduling delays are found to be generally higher than TMA airborne metering delays, regardless of prior GDP delays. Depending on how the double delay is defined, between 42 and 62 of all internal departures in GDP and TMA scheduling experienced double delays in this period. A deep dive into the data reveals that contributors to double delays include upstream flights departing before their Expect Departure Clearance Times (EDCTs); differences in the rates used for setting EDCTs and TMA Scheduled Times of Arrival; differences in the arrival demand expected based on EDCTs and the arrival demand entering TMA; and shorter en route times between takeoff and entry into TMA than assumed in the calculation of flight EDCTs, all of which undermine the sequencing and spacing underlying flight EDCTs. Double delays are also found to coincide with periods in which the virtual runway arrival queue being served by a TMA is large, there are periods of high demand relative to capacity, and there are high airborne metering delays. Data mining techniques are used to confirm that each of these factors contribute to the occurrence of double delay andor high internal departure scheduling delay across three months of data from June to August 2010. Predictors of the occurrence of double delay and high TMA scheduling delay are built using logistic regression, providing prediction accuracies of 69 and 73, respectively.

traffic flow management↗
NASA NTRS2016

Rodent Habitat On ISS: Spaceflight Effects On Mouse Behavior

The NASA Decadal Survey (2011), Recapturing a Future for Space Exploration: Life and Physical Sciences Research for a New Era, emphasized the importance of expanding NASA life sciences research to long duration, rodent experiments on the International Space Station (ISS). To accomplish this objective, flight hardware, operations, and science capabilities supporting mouse studies in space were developed at NASA Ames Research Center. The first flight experiment carrying mice, Rodent Research Hardware and Operations Validation (Rodent Research-1), was launched on Sept 21, 2014 in an unmanned Dragon Capsule, SpaceX4, exposing the mice to a total of 37 days in space. Ground control groups were maintained in environmental chambers at Kennedy Space Center. Mouse health and behavior were monitored for the duration of the experiment via video streaming. Here we present behavioral analysis of two groups of five C57BL/6 female adult mice viewed via fixed camera views compared with identically housed Ground Controls. Flight (Flt) and Ground Control (GC) mice exhibited the same range of behaviors, including eating, drinking, exploratory behavior, self- and allo-grooming, and social interactions at similar or greater levels of occurrence. Mice propelled themselves freely and actively throughout the Habitat using their forelimbs to push off or by floating from one cage area to another, and they quickly learned to anchor themselves using tails and/or paws. Overall activity was greater in Flt as compared to GC mice, with spontaneous ambulatory behavior including the development of organized ‘circling’ or ‘race-tracking’ behavior that emerged within the first few days of flight and encompassed the primary dark cycle activity for the remainder of the experiment. We quantified the bout frequency, duration and rate of circling with respect to characteristic behaviors observed in the varying stages of the progressive development of circling: flipping utilizing two sides of the habitat, circling, multi-lap circling and group-circling. Once begun, mice did not regress to flipping behavior or other previous behavioral milestones for the remainder of flight. An overall upward trend in circling frequency, rate, duration, participation, and organization was observed over the course of the 37-day spaceflight experiment. In this presentation, we will summarize qualitative observations and quantitative comparisons of mice in microgravity and 1g conditions. Behavioral analyses provide important insights into the overall health and adaptation of mice to the space environment, and identify unique behaviors and social interactions to guide future habitat development and research on rodents in space.

Mouse↗
NASA NTRS2022

Deriving Severe Hail Likelihood from Satellite Observations and Model Reanalysis Parameters using a Deep Neural Network

Geostationary satellite imagers, such as those of the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) series, have been observing severe convection at 15–60-minute intervals for over 40 years. When properly assessed, such a data record can be valuable in efforts of estimating severe storm risk throughout the diurnal cycle based on automated detection of patterns consistently found atop severe storms. Furthermore, environmental conditions favorable for severe weather are well-known and are thought to be represented well by modern reanalysis products. Promoting resilience against such hazards on local and global scales is a chief goal the NASA Disasters program, which seeks to encourage use of satellite observations to mitigate risk. For instance, hail is the costliest severe weather hazard across the globe in terms of insured loss, but reporting inconsistencies for hail events globally make it difficult to develop models that can quantify the risk. Satellite observation and model reanalysis taken together have the potential to, with reasonable skill and specificity, characterize environmental conditions that are favorable for hazardous weather, and thereby enable creation of hazard climatologie. Such climatologies are particularly useful over regions without extensive radar networks or storm reporting. By mapping the multivariate combination of observed cloud features and reanalysis environmental parameters/indices to United States Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) radar-estimated Maximum Expected Size of Hail (MESH) by way of a deep neural network (DNN), estimates of likelihood for potentially severe hail can be produced. Such estimates are of greater complexity and efficiency than could be performed with previous multivariate or logistic regression analyses for observed points within convective systems. Statistical distributions of convective parameters from satellite and reanalysis are shown to highlight non-severe/severe class separation for well-known hailstorm predictors, e.g., overshooting cloud top characteristics, deep-layer wind shear, mid-level stability, helicity, and convective inhibition. These complex, multivariate predictor relationships are exploited within a DNN, which can efficiently produce a quantitative hail risk metric with better than 70% detection rate and under 30% false alarms. These hail classifications can then be aggregated across the satellite record to yield a hazard climatology for hail frequency and severity – knowledge of which is of particular interest to those who manage risk (e.g., insurers) and are seeking opportunities to identify hail-prone regions, particularly in developing nations. This NASA study uses satellite observations and model parameters in a DNN to perform climatological hailstorm analysis in support of catastrophe model development, with the hope of promoting risk resilience particularly in regions without adequate weather radar coverage.

Passive Remote Sensing↗
NASA NTRS1995

SeaWiFS Technical Report Series. Volume 29: SeaWiFS CZCS-type pigment algorithm

The Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) mission will provide operational ocean color that will be superior to the previous Coastal Zone Color Sensor (CZCS) proof-of-concept mission. an algorithm is needed that exploits the full functionality of SeaWiFS whilst remaining compatible in concept with algorithms used for the CZCS. This document describes the theoretical rationale of radiance band-radio methods for determining chlorophyll alpha and other important biogeochemical parameters, and their implementation for the SeaWiFS mission. Pigment interrelationships are examined to explain the success of the CZCS algorithms. In the context where chlorophyll alpha absorbs only weakly at 520 nm, the success of the 520 nm to 550 nm CZCS band ratio needs to be explained. This is explained by showing that in pigment data from a range of oceanic provinces chlorophyll alpha (absorbing at less than 490 nm), carotenoids (absorbing at greater than 460 nm), and total pigment are highly correlated. Correlations within pigment groups particularly photoprotectant and photosynthetic carotenoids are less robust. The sources of variability in optical data re examined using the NIMBUS Experiment Team (NET) bio-optical data set and bio-optical model. In both the model and NET data, the majority of the variance in the optical data is attributed to variability in pigment (chlorophyll alpha, and total particulates, with less than 5% of the variability resulting from pigment assemblage. The relationships between band ratios and chlorophyll is examined analytically, and a new formulation based on a dual hyperbolic model is suggested which gives a better calibration curve than the conventional log-log linear regression fit. The new calibration curve shows that 490:555 ratio is the best single-band ratio and is the recommended CZCS-type pigment algorithm. Using both the model and NET data, a number of multiband algorithms are developed; the best of which is an algorithm based on the 443:555 and 490:555 ratios. From model data, the form of potential algorithms for other products, such as total particulates and dissolved organic matter (DOM), are suggested.

Hooker, Stanford B.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Streak camera based SLR receiver for two color atmospheric measurements

To realize accurate two-color differential measurements, an image digitizing system with variable spatial resolution was designed, built, and integrated to a photon-counting picosecond streak camera, yielding a temporal scan resolution better than 300 femtosecond/pixel. The streak camera is configured to operate with 3 spatial channels; two of these support green (532 nm) and uv (355 nm) while the third accommodates reference pulses (764 nm) for real-time calibration. Critical parameters affecting differential timing accuracy such as pulse width and shape, number of received photons, streak camera/imaging system nonlinearities, dynamic range, and noise characteristics were investigated to optimize the system for accurate differential delay measurements. The streak camera output image consists of three image fields, each field is 1024 pixels along the time axis and 16 pixels across the spatial axis. Each of the image fields may be independently positioned across the spatial axis. Two of the image fields are used for the two wavelengths used in the experiment; the third window measures the temporal separation of a pair of diode laser pulses which verify the streak camera sweep speed for each data frame. The sum of the 16 pixel intensities across each of the 1024 temporal positions for the three data windows is used to extract the three waveforms. The waveform data is processed using an iterative three-point running average filter (10 to 30 iterations are used) to remove high-frequency structure. The pulse pair separations are determined using the half-max and centroid type analysis. Rigorous experimental verification has demonstrated that this simplified process provides the best measurement accuracy. To calibrate the receiver system sweep, two laser pulses with precisely known temporal separation are scanned along the full length of the sweep axis. The experimental measurements are then modeled using polynomial regression to obtain a best fit to the data. Data aggregation using normal point approach has provided accurate data fitting techniques and is found to be much more convenient than using the full rate single shot data. The systematic errors from this model have been found to be less than 3 ps for normal points.

Varghese, Thomas K.↗
NASA NTRS1995

SeaWiFS Technical Report Series: The SeaWiFS CZCS-Type Pigment Algorithm - Volume 29

The Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) mission will provide operational ocean color that will be superior to the previous Coastal Zone Color Sensor (CZCS) proof-of-concept mission. An algorithm is needed that exploits the full functionality of SeaWiFS whilst remaining compatible in concept with algorithms used for the CZCS. This document describes the theoretical rationale of radiance band-ratio methods for determining chlorophyll-a and other important biogeochemical parameters, and their implementation for the SeaWIFS mission. Pigment interrelationships are examined to explain the success of the CZCS algorithms. In the context where chlorophyll-a absorbs only weakly at 520 nm, the success of the 520 nm to 550 nm CZCS band ratio needs to be explained. This is explained by showing that in pigment data from a range of oceanic provinces chlorophyll-a (absorbing at less than 490 nm), carotenoids (absorbing at greater than 460 nm), and total pigment are highly correlated. Correlations within pigment groups particularly photoprotectant and photosynthetic carotenoids are less robust. The sources of variability in optical data are examined using the NIMBUS Experiment Team (NET) bio-optical data set and bio-optical model. In both the model and NET data, the majority of the variance in the optical data is attributed to variability in pigment (chlorophyll-a), and total particulates, with less than 5% of the variability resulting from pigment assemblage. The relationships between band ratios and chlorophyll is examined analytically, and a new formulation based on a dual hyperbolic model is suggested which gives a better calibration curve than the conventional log-log linear regression fit. The new calibration curve shows the 490:555 ratio is the best single-band ratio and is the recommended CZCS-type pigment algorithm. Using both the model and NET data, a number of multiband algorithms are developed; the best of which is an algorithm based on the 443:555 and 490:555 ratios. From model data, the form of potential algorithms for other products, such as total particulates and dissolved organic matter (DOM), are suggested.

Hooker, Stanford B.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Exploiting the Free Landsat Archive for Operational Monitoring of Ecosystem Condition and Change Across the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

For the first time, all imagery acquired by the Landsat series of satellites is being made available by the USGS to users at no cost. This represents a key opportunity to use Landsat in a truly operational monitoring framework: large regions of the U.S. such as the Chesapeake Bay Watershed can now be analyzed using "wall-to-wall" imagery at timescales from approximately 1 month to several years. With the future launch of the Landsat Data Continuity Mission (LDCM) and Decadal Survey missions such as the hyperspectral HyspIRI, it is imperative to develop robust processing systems to perform annual ecosystem assessments over large regions such as the Chesapeake Bay. We have been working at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) to develop an integrative framework for inserting 30m, annual, Landsat based data and derived products into the existing decision support system for the Bay, with a particular focus on ecosystem condition and changes over the entire watershed. The basic goal is to use a 'stack' of Landsat imagery with 40% or less cloud cover to produce multi-date (2005-2009 period), cloud/shadow/gap-free composited surface reflectance products that will support the creation of watershed scale land cover/ use products and the monitoring of ecosystem change across the Bay. Our scientific focus extends beyond the conventional definition of land cover (i.e. a classification of vegetation type) as we propose to monitor both changes in surface type (e.g. forest to urban), vegetation structure (e.g. forest disturbance due to logging or insect damage), as well as winter crop cover. These processes represent a continuum from large, interannual changes in land cover type, to subtler, intra-annual changes associated with short-term disturbance. The free Landsat data are being processed to surface reflectance and composited using the existing Landsat Ecosystem Disturbance Adaptive Processing System here at NASA/ GSFC, and land cover products (type, tree cover, impervious cover, winter cover) are being produced using well-established decision tree and regression tree algorithms. The goal of this session is to present the data products that we have been developing to the Bay science community and to discuss potential avenues for improvements and usage of the products for decision support.

BrowndeColstoun, Eric↗
NASA NTRS2016

Model Development for MODIS Thermal Band Electronic Crosstalk

MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) has 36 bands. Among them, 16 thermal emissive bands covering a wavelength range from 3.8 to 14.4 m. After 16 years on-orbit operation, the electronic crosstalk of a few Terra MODIS thermal emissive bands developed substantial issues that cause biases in the EV brightness temperature measurements and surface feature contamination. The crosstalk effects on band 27 with center wavelength at 6.7 m and band 29 at 8.5 m increased significantly in recent years, affecting downstream products such as water vapor and cloud mask. The crosstalk effect is evident in the near-monthly scheduled lunar measurements, from which the crosstalk coefficients can be derived. The development of an alternative approach is very helpful for independent verification.In this work, a physical model was developed to assess the crosstalk impact on calibration as well as in Earth view brightness temperature retrieval. This model was applied to Terra MODIS band 29 empirically to correct the Earth brightness temperature measurements. In the model development, the detectors nonlinear response is considered. The impact of the electronic crosstalk is assessed in two steps. The first step consists of determining the impact on calibration using the on-board blackbody (BB). Due to the detectors nonlinear response and large background signal, both linear and nonlinear coefficients are affected by the crosstalk from sending bands. The second step is to calculate the effects on the Earth view brightness temperature retrieval. The effects include those from affected calibration coefficients and the contamination of Earth view measurements. This model links the measurement bias with crosstalk coefficients, detector non-linearity, and the ratio of Earth measurements between the sending and receiving bands. The correction of the electronic cross talk can be implemented empirically from the processed bias at different brightness temperature. The implementation can be done through two approaches. As routine calibration assessment for thermal infrared bands, the trending over select Earth scenes is processed for all the detectors in a band and the band averaged bias is derived at a certain time. In this case, the correction of an affected band can be made using the regression of the model with band averaged bias and then corrections of detector differences are applied. The second approach requires the trending for individual detectors and the bias for each detector is used for regression with the model. A test using the first approach was made for Terra MODIS band 29 with the biases derived from long-term trending of brightness temperature over ocean and Dome-C.

Chang, Tiejun↗
NASA NTRS2026

Machine Learning for Predicting Team Functioning in HERA Missions

Team functioning is integral to success in future long term space exploration missions. Proactively detecting declines in team functioning can mitigate conflict and ensure mission success. This project developed a speech-based artificial intelligence (AI) system that unobtrusively predicts degradation in team functioning, including performance and cohesion, in the Human Exploration Research Analog (HERA) Campaigns 4 and 5. The AI system conducted automated analysis of the prosodic (tone of voice) and linguistic (language content) components of speech, modeling interpersonal dynamics at both the turn-taking and day-wide levels. We investigated team functioning via observing structured interactions (i.e., multi-mission space exploration vehicle-extra vehicular activity [MMSEV-EVA], team interaction battery [TIB]) and unstructured interactions before the MMSEV-EVA task. We developed machine learning models to predict team functioning (objective task accuracy, self reported team efficacy and self reported team cohesion) by analyzing OpenSmile acoustic features, linguistic descriptors extracted via the linguistic inquiry and word count (LIWC) dictionary, and semantic embeddings. In the TIB, static models using logistic regression and random forests were not able to predict task accuracy, but predicted team efficacy and cohesion during both the decision making and relational tasks to a moderate level (60-70%). Majority voting on the individual turns to predict day long team efficacy further increased accuracies (70-80%). Finally, long short-term memory (LSTM) models showed the best performance across all variables (80-91%), including task performance. In the MMSEV-EVA, static models achieved an accuracy of 60% with majority voting, which increased to 80% through the incorporation of mission day as a variable, accounting for the learning effect. A key finding across both tasks was the "team-dependent" nature of these interactions; models achieved much higher accuracy when trained on prior days of the same team's data rather than attempting to generalize across entirely different teams, with even 1-2 days of prior data per team achieving 5-15% improvement over team-independent models. In addition, the incorporation of pre-task data from the same team also improves model performance, e.g., incorporating data from the decision-making task of the TIB, which preceded the relational task, improved the prediction of team efficacy and cohesion during the latter. We compared model performance when trained on machine-generated data compared to data that had been further corrected by human annotators. Overall, models trained on human-corrected data exhibited a modest improvement in performance, particularly when acoustic features were used. We found no significant correlation between word error rate (WER) and model accuracy (r(55) = -0.08, p = 0.51), but model’s accuracy was significantly higher for medium/high quality transcription (0.74 (SD = 0.48)) compared to the low-quality group (0.64 (SD = 0.36)) (t(63)=2.82, p = 0.006). Based on these, several design recommendation emerge, that could inform Standards at NASA. Models predicting team functioning should incorporate at least one to two days of historical interaction data, include brief pre-task discussions, and explicitly model temporal learning effects, especially for longer operational tasks. Minimum quality standards for automated speech-processing pipelines are needed, given the performance gains observed with manually corrected acoustic data. Finally, systems should leverage both acoustic features and language embeddings in complementary ways, with modality choices and fusion strategies tailored to mission context, task demands, and data quality requirements.

Shrivatsa Mishra↗
NASA NTRS2004

CMC Property Variability and Life Prediction Methods for Turbine Engine Component Application

The ever increasing need for lower density and higher temperature-capable materials for aircraft engines has led to the development of Ceramic Matrix Composites (CMCs). Today's aircraft engines operate with >3000"F gas temperatures at the entrance to the turbine section, but unless heavily cooled, metallic components cannot operate above approx.2000 F. CMCs attempt to push component capability to nearly 2700 F with much less cooling, which can help improve engine efficiency and performance in terms of better fuel efficiency, higher thrust, and reduced emissions. The NASA Glenn Research Center has been researching the benefits of the SiC/SiC CMC for engine applications. A CMC is made up of a matrix material, fibers, and an interphase, which is a protective coating over the fibers. There are several methods or architectures in which the orientation of the fibers can be manipulated to achieve a particular material property objective as well as a particular component geometric shape and size. The required shape manipulation can be a limiting factor in the design and performance of the component if there is a lack of bending capability of the fiber as making the fiber more flexible typically sacrifices strength and other fiber properties. Various analysis codes are available (pcGINA, CEMCAN) that can predict the effective Young's Moduli, thermal conductivities, coefficients of thermal expansion (CTE), and various other properties of a CMC. There are also various analysis codes (NASAlife) that can be used to predict the life of CMCs under expected engine service conditions. The objective of this summer study is to utilize and optimize these codes for examining the tradeoffs between CMC properties and the complex fiber architectures that will be needed for several different component designs. For example, for the pcGINA code, there are six variations of architecture available. Depending on which architecture is analyzed, the user is able to specify the fiber tow size, tow spacing, weave parameter, and angle of orientation of fibers. By holding the volume fraction of the fibers constant, variations in tow spacing can be explored for different architectures. The CMC material properties are usually calculated assuming the component is manufactured perfectly. However, this is typically not the case so that a quantification of the material property variability is needed to account for processing and/or manufacturing imperfections. The overall inputs and outputs are presented using a regression software to rapidly investigate the tradeoffs associated with fiber architecture, material properties, and ultimately cost. This information is then propagated through lifing models and Larson-Miller data to assess timehemperature-dependent CMC strength. In addition, a first order cost estimation will be quantified from a current qualitative perspective. This cost estimation includes the manufacturing challenges, such as tooling, as well as the component cost for a particular application. Ultimately, a cost to performance ratio should be established that compares the effectiveness of CMCs to their current rival, nickel superalloys.

Cheplak, Matthew L.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Greenhouse Gas Concentration Data Recovery Algorithm for a Low Cost, Laser Heterodyne Radiometer

The goal of a coordinated effort between groups at GWU and NASA GSFC is the development of a low-cost, global, surface instrument network that continuously monitors three key carbon cycle gases in the atmospheric column: carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), carbon monoxide (CO), as well as oxygen (O2) for atmospheric pressure profiles. The network will implement a low-cost, miniaturized, laser heterodyne radiometer (mini-LHR) that has recently been developed at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. This mini-LHR is designed to operate in tandem with the passive aerosol sensor currently used in AERONET (a well established network of more than 450 ground aerosol monitoring instruments worldwide), and could be rapidly deployed into this established global network. Laser heterodyne radiometry is a well-established technique for detecting weak signals that was adapted from radio receiver technology. Here, a weak light signal, that has undergone absorption by atmospheric components, is mixed with light from a distributed feedback (DFB) telecommunications laser on a single-mode optical fiber. The RF component of the signal is detected on a fast photoreceiver. Scanning the laser through an absorption feature in the infrared, results in a scanned heterodyne signal io the RF. Deconvolution of this signal through the retrieval algorithm allows for the extraction of altitude contributions to the column signal. The retrieval algorithm is based on a spectral simulation program, SpecSyn, developed at GWU for high-resolution infrared spectroscopies. Variations io pressure, temperature, composition, and refractive index through the atmosphere; that are all functions of latitude, longitude, time of day, altitude, etc.; are modeled using algorithms developed in the MODTRAN program developed in part by the US Air Force Research Laboratory. In these calculations the atmosphere is modeled as a series of spherically symmetric shells with boundaries specified at defined altitudes. Temperature, pressure, and species mixing ratios are defined at these boundaries. Between the boundaries, temperature is assumed to vary linearly with altitude while pressure (and thus gas density) vary exponentially. The observed spectrum at the LHR instrument will be the integration of the contributions along this light path. For any absorption measurement the signal at a particular spectral frequency is a linear combination of spectral line contributions from several species. For each species that might absorb in a spectral region, we have pre-calculated its contribution as a function of temperature and pressure. The integrated path absorption spectrum can then by calculated using the initial sun angle (from location, date, and time) and assumptions about pressure and temperature profiles from an atmospheric model. The modeled spectrum is iterated to match the experimental observation using standard multilinear regression techniques. In addition to the layer concentrations, the numerical technique also provides uncertainty estimates for these quantities as well as dependencies on assumptions inherent in the atmospheric models.

Miller, J. Houston↗
NASA NTRS2010

Peak Wind Tool for General Forecasting

The expected peak wind speed of the day is an important forecast element in the 45th Weather Squadron's (45 WS) daily 24-Hour and Weekly Planning Forecasts. The forecasts are used for ground and space launch operations at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). The 45 WS also issues wind advisories for KSC/CCAFS when they expect wind gusts to meet or exceed 25 kt, 35 kt and 50 kt thresholds at any level from the surface to 300 ft. The 45 WS forecasters have indicated peak wind speeds are challenging to forecast, particularly in the cool season months of October - April. In Phase I of this task, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) developed a tool to help the 45 WS forecast non-convective winds at KSC/CCAFS for the 24-hour period of 0800 to 0800 local time. The tool was delivered as a Microsoft Excel graphical user interface (GUI). The GUI displayed the forecast of peak wind speed, 5-minute average wind speed at the time of the peak wind, timing of the peak wind and probability the peak speed would meet or exceed 25 kt, 35 kt and 50 kt. For the current task (Phase II ), the 45 WS requested additional observations be used for the creation of the forecast equations by expanding the period of record (POR). Additional parameters were evaluated as predictors, including wind speeds between 500 ft and 3000 ft, static stability classification, Bulk Richardson Number, mixing depth, vertical wind shear, temperature inversion strength and depth and wind direction. Using a verification data set, the AMU compared the performance of the Phase I and II prediction methods. Just as in Phase I, the tool was delivered as a Microsoft Excel GUI. The 45 WS requested the tool also be available in the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS). The AMU first expanded the POR by two years by adding tower observations, surface observations and CCAFS (XMR) soundings for the cool season months of March 2007 to April 2009. The POR was expanded again by six years, from October 1996 to April 2002, by interpolating 1000-ft sounding data to 100-ft increments. The Phase II developmental data set included observations for the cool season months of October 1996 to February 2007. The AMU calculated 68 candidate predictors from the XMR soundings, to include 19 stability parameters, 48 wind speed parameters and one wind shear parameter. Each day in the data set was stratified by synoptic weather pattern, low-level wind direction, precipitation and Richardson Number, for a total of 60 stratification methods. Linear regression equations, using the 68 predictors and 60 stratification methods, were created for the tool's three forecast parameters: the highest peak wind speed of the day (PWSD), 5-minute average speed at the same time (A WSD), and timing of the PWSD. For PWSD and A WSD, 30 Phase II methods were selected for evaluation in the verification data set. For timing of the PWSD, 12 Phase\I methods were selected for evaluation. The verification data set contained observations for the cool season months of March 2007 to April 2009. The data set was used to compare the Phase I and II forecast methods to climatology, model forecast winds and wind advisories issued by the 45 WS. The model forecast winds were derived from the 0000 and 1200 UTC runs of the 12-km North American Mesoscale (MesoNAM) model. The forecast methods that performed the best in the verification data set were selected for the Phase II version of the tool. For PWSD and A WSD, linear regression equations based on MesoNAM forecasts performed significantly better than the Phase I and II methods. For timing of the PWSD, none of the methods performed significantly bener than climatology. The AMU then developed the Microsoft Excel and MIDDS GUls. The GUIs display the forecasts for PWSD, AWSD and the probability the PWSD will meet or exceed 25 kt, 35 kt and 50 kt. Since none of the prediction methods for timing of the PWSD performed significantly better thanlimatology, the tool no longer displays this predictand. The Excel and MIDDS GUIs display forecasts for Day-I to Day-3 and Day-I to Day-5, respectively. The Excel GUI uses MesoNAM forecasts as input, while the MIDDS GUI uses input from the MesoNAM and Global Forecast System model. Based on feedback from the 45 WS, the AMU added the daily average wind speed from 30 ft to 60 ft to the tool, which is one of the parameters in the 24-Hour and Weekly Planning Forecasts issued by the 45 WS. In addition, the AMU expanded the MIDDS GUI to include forecasts out to Day-7.

Barrett, Joe H., III↗