Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “net present cost”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 289 records · Page 16

An Integrated Paradigm for the Management of Delivery Risk in Electricity Markets: From Batteries to Insurance and Beyond

If power systems transition to integrate higher amounts of variable renewable energy sources, storage technologies, and distributed energy resources (DERs), new risk management frameworks are necessary to ensure cost-effective and reliable power system operations. Projects funded by the Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E) Performance-based Energy Resource Feedback, Optimization, and Risk Management (PERFORM) program aim to contribute new risk management frameworks by developing methods to quantify and manage risk at grid asset and system levels. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) led a PERFORM project in collaboration with the Johns Hopkins University, the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), kWh Analytics, Packetized Energy, and Imperial Consultants (ICON). The project addressed two challenges related to risk management in electricity markets: managing net load imbalances and flexibility from DERs. This final technical report presents a list of project accomplishments, activities, and outputs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Carbon emission responsive building control: A case study with an all-electric residential community in a cold climate

In the United States, buildings account for 35% of total energy-related carbon dioxide emissions, making them important contributors to decarbonization. Carbon intensities in the power grid are time-varying and can fluctuate significantly within hours, so shifting building loads in response to the carbon intensities can reduce a building’s operational carbon emissions. This paper presents a rule-based carbon responsive control framework that controls the setpoints of thermostatically controlled loads responding to the grid’s carbon emission signals in real time. Based on this framework, four controllers are proposed with different combinations of carbon accounting methods and control rules. To evaluate their performance, we performed simulation studies using models of a 27-home, all-electric, net zero energy residential community located in Basalt, Colorado, United States. The carbon intensity data of four future years from the Cambium data set are adopted to account for the evolving resource mix in the power grid. Various performance metrics, including energy consumption, carbon emission, energy cost, and thermal discomfort, were used to evaluate the performance of the controllers. Sensitivity analysis was also conducted to determine how the control thresholds and intervals affect the controllers’ performance. Simulation results indicate that the carbon responsive controllers can reduce the homes’ annual carbon emissions by 6.0% to 20.5%. However, the energy consumption increased by 0.9% to 6.7%, except in one scenario where it decreased by 2.2%. Compared to the baseline, the change in energy cost was between –2.9% and 3.4%, and thermal discomfort was also maintained within an acceptable range. The little impact on energy cost and thermal discomfort indicates there are no potential roadblocks for customer acceptance when rolling out the controllers in utility programs.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A Boltzmann machine for the organization of intelligent machines

In the present technological society, there is a major need to build machines that would execute intelligent tasks operating in uncertain environments with minimum interaction with a human operator. Although some designers have built smart robots, utilizing heuristic ideas, there is no systematic approach to design such machines in an engineering manner. Recently, cross-disciplinary research from the fields of computers, systems AI and information theory has served to set the foundations of the emerging area of the design of intelligent machines. Since 1977 Saridis has been developing an approach, defined as Hierarchical Intelligent Control, designed to organize, coordinate and execute anthropomorphic tasks by a machine with minimum interaction with a human operator. This approach utilizes analytical (probabilistic) models to describe and control the various functions of the intelligent machine structured by the intuitively defined principle of Increasing Precision with Decreasing Intelligence (IPDI) (Saridis 1979). This principle, even though resembles the managerial structure of organizational systems (Levis 1988), has been derived on an analytic basis by Saridis (1988). The purpose is to derive analytically a Boltzmann machine suitable for optimal connection of nodes in a neural net (Fahlman, Hinton, Sejnowski, 1985). Then this machine will serve to search for the optimal design of the organization level of an intelligent machine. In order to accomplish this, some mathematical theory of the intelligent machines will be first outlined. Then some definitions of the variables associated with the principle, like machine intelligence, machine knowledge, and precision will be made (Saridis, Valavanis 1988). Then a procedure to establish the Boltzmann machine on an analytic basis will be presented and illustrated by an example in designing the organization level of an Intelligent Machine. A new search technique, the Modified Genetic Algorithm, is presented and proved to converge to the minimum of a cost function. Finally, simulations will show the effectiveness of a variety of search techniques for the intelligent machine.

Moed, Michael C.↗

Near net shape processing: A necessity for advanced materials applications

High quality discrete parts are the backbones for successful operation of equipment used in transportation, communication, construction, manufacturing, and appliances. Traditional shapemaking for discrete parts is carried out predominantly by machining, or removing unwanted material to produce the desired shape. As the cost and complexity of modern materials escalates, coupled with the expense and environmental hazards associated with handling of scrap, it is increasingly important to develop near net shape processes for these materials. Such processes involve casting of liquid materials, consolidation of powder materials, or deformation processing of simple solid shapes into the desired shape. Frequently, several of these operations may be used in sequence to produce a finished part. The processes for near net shape forming may be applied to any type of material, including metals, polymers, ceramics, and their composites. The ability to produce shapes is the key to implementation of laboratory developments in materials science into real world applications. This seminar presents an overview of near net shapemaking processes, some application examples, current developments, and future research opportunities.

Kuhn, Howard A.↗

Development of Advanced Manufacturing Approaches for Single-Piece Launch Vehicle Structures

Advanced, near-net shape manufacturing methods have the potential to enable production of structures with fewer welds and reduced machining requirements. Two such methods that are suitable for the manufacturing of single-piece, stiffened barrel-shaped structures are presented. The first solution deployed existing manufacturing technology to produce a thick-walled barrel with integrally machined stiffeners. In this study, an 8-ft. diameter barrel was produced and subjected to a buckling test. Data on the manufacturing and testing of this barrel are provided and compared against the traditional multi-piece weld construction approach. The single-piece barrel resulted in a 28% greater load carrying capacity than the welded barrel. A second solution utilized a novel flow-forming technique to produce the barrel and stiffeners in one process without the need for welding or machining. This is an emerging manufacturing method known as the Integrally Stiffened Cylinder (ISC) process. This innovative process is being evaluated for launch vehicle and commercial aircraft manufacturing. The one-piece, stiffened ISC barrels, which have been successfully fabricated at 10 ft. in diameter, offer a direct replacement for conventional multi-piece, welded or riveted structures. A cost-benefit analysis for launch vehicle cryogenic propellant tanks estimated that the ISC process offers up to a 50% reduction in manufacturing costs and a 10% reduction in mass.

integrally stiffened cylinder (ISC)↗

Towards Net Zero: Modeling Approach to the Right-Sized Facilities

As the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere increases, the concerns about carbon emissions are growing. Several net-zero initiatives are taking place around the globe to achieve a balance between the GHGs put into the atmosphere and those taken out. While most efforts present a sectorized approach, this paper describes the importance of integrating information across different sectors for effective modeling of carbon emissions and holistic reduction opportunity analysis. Using the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) campus as a test case, this work provides a web-based tool for INL stakeholders to use when engaging in strategic planning to achieve carbon emissions reduction. This net-zero engineering support tool (NEST) uses historical data as foundational information for applying the modeling framework. Prediction of CO 2 emissions throughout project completion integrates various approaches and schedules aimed at energy conservation, fleet decarbonization, and other GHG reduction activities. Using NEST, stakeholders can visualize carbon emissions, electricity consumption, and costs for decision making when planning the pathway for reaching carbon net zero. The INL’s initiative to transition into an EV fleet was used to demonstrate the developed framework and the advantages of using NEST. It was shown that electrifying different fossil-fueled campus vehicles before 2030 with aggressive replacement schedules require high annual capital expenditure (CAPEX), which may not be available. The tool allows decision makers to test different replacement schedules and prioritize those that yield CAPEX below a certain threshold while meeting target milestones. While the demonstration focused on vehicle electrification, the developed framework lays the foundation for further quantitative analysis of other GHG reduction activities.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Ethanol to diesel: a sustainable alternative for the heavy-duty transportation sector

The combustion of middle distillates (diesel and jet fuel) is responsible for the emission of more than 2 GTon of CO 2 per year worldwide. While sustainable alternatives exist for gasoline and jet fuel, we still lack sustainable alternatives for diesel. This fact is especially relevant if we consider that electrification of sectors where diesel is used is challenging. One sustainable approach for diesel production is the catalytic upgrading of ethanol. While most work in this field has focused on the dehydration/oligomerization of ethanol, this approach is limited to producing fuels that have a high degree of branching and low cetane number. Another approach is the sequential use of ethanol Guerbet coupling, leading to higher alcohols, followed by etherification, leading to large ethers which, importantly, result in a product with high cetane number. In this work, we explore the catalytic upgrading of ethanol into diesel following an approach based on the initial Guerbet coupling of ethanol followed by etherification. The results presented are a collaborative and synergic effort among process and systems engineers, experimentalist in the area of catalysis, and fuel property modelers. Here, we demonstrate experimentally the feasibility of upgrading ethanol into a diesel fuel with properties that surpass its fossil counterpart. The diesel produced has a predicted cetane number of ~70 and outstanding cold flow properties, while maintaining other properties (viscosity, density, and flash point) within expected ranges. A technoeconomic analysis performed based on a detailed biorefinery model shows that the MFSP is ~5.89$ per Gal in 2021 dollars when lignocellulosic ethanol is used, with the most relevant economic driver the cost of the ethanol feedstock. The upgrading process can be performed with a net energy gain (EROI = 1.49 > 1). An LCA analysis of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reveals that the use of lignocellulosic ethanol may lead to more than 50% reduction in GHG emissions compared to fossil diesel. Depending on the CO 2 emissions associated with the production of ethanol we show that in some instances the production of carbon neutral diesel fuel is possible.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Environmental Evaluation of Gas Switching Reforming for Low Carbon Hydrogen: A Power-to-X Study

Gas Switching Reforming for hydrogen production (GSR-H2) offers a promising pathway for producing low-carbon hydrogen at scale, with significant implications for Power-to-X (PtX) systems that rely on clean hydrogen as a feedstock for synthetic fuels and chemicals. GSR-H2 integrates inherent carbon capture and thermal self-sufficiency, positioning it as an efficient alternative to conventional steam methane reforming (SMR), proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolysis, and chemical looping reforming (CLR). Unlike SMR, GSR-H2 avoids external natural gas combustion by leveraging exothermic redox cycles to generate process steam and recover electricity internally. Its innovative reactor design consolidates all reforming stages within a single reactor cluster, eliminating the need for solid circulation found in CLR, thereby reducing capital costs and improving system reliability and scalability. This presentation describes the first environmental life cycle assessment (LCA) of GSR-H2, evaluating its environmental performance across U.S. grid and renewable energy scenarios. In a renewables-powered configuration, GSR-H2 achieves a global warming potential (GWP) of 2.77 kg CO2 equivalent per kg H2, substantially lower than SMR (10.4 kg) and competitive with PEM electrolysis (1.85 kg) and CLR (1.84 kg). Results across additional impact categories, including air quality and water use, support GSR-H2’s role as a complementary hydrogen source in PtX applications. Its reduced environmental burden, thermal integration, and simplified scale-up potential make GSR-H2 a viable contributor to net-zero PtX systems, particularly where renewable energy is abundant and electricity-intensive hydrogen production faces economic or infrastructure constraints.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Discrete Deterministic and Stochastic Petri Nets

Petri nets augmented with timing specifications gained a wide acceptance in the area of performance and reliability evaluation of complex systems exhibiting concurrency, synchronization, and conflicts. The state space of time-extended Petri nets is mapped onto its basic underlying stochastic process, which can be shown to be Markovian under the assumption of exponentially distributed firing times. The integration of exponentially and non-exponentially distributed timing is still one of the major problems for the analysis and was first attacked for continuous time Petri nets at the cost of structural or analytical restrictions. We propose a discrete deterministic and stochastic Petri net (DDSPN) formalism with no imposed structural or analytical restrictions where transitions can fire either in zero time or according to arbitrary firing times that can be represented as the time to absorption in a finite absorbing discrete time Markov chain (DTMC). Exponentially distributed firing times are then approximated arbitrarily well by geometric distributions. Deterministic firing times are a special case of the geometric distribution. The underlying stochastic process of a DDSPN is then also a DTMC, from which the transient and stationary solution can be obtained by standard techniques. A comprehensive algorithm and some state space reduction techniques for the analysis of DDSPNs are presented comprising the automatic detection of conflicts and confusions, which removes a major obstacle for the analysis of discrete time models.

MATHEMATICAL MODELS↗

Micro-Ball-Lens Optical Switch Driven by SMA Actuator

The figure is a simplified cross section of a microscopic optical switch that was partially developed at the time of reporting the information for this article. In a fully developed version, light would be coupled from an input optical fiber to one of two side-by-side output optical fibers. The optical connection between the input and the selected output fiber would be made via a microscopic ball lens. Switching of the optical connection from one output fiber to another would be effected by using a pair of thin-film shape-memory-alloy (SMA) actuators to toggle the lens between two resting switch positions. There are many optical switches some made of macroscopic parts by conventional fabrication techniques and some that are microfabricated and, hence, belong to the class of microelectromechanical systems (MEMS). Conventionally fabricated optical switches tend to be expensive. MEMS switches can be mass-produced at relatively low cost, but their attractiveness has been diminished by the fact that, heretofore, MEMS switches have usually been found to exhibit high insertion losses. The present switch is intended to serve as a prototype of low-loss MEMS switches. In addition, this is the first reported SMA-based optical switch. The optical fibers would be held in V grooves in a silicon frame. The lens would have a diameter of 1 m; it would be held by, and positioned between, the SMA actuators, which would be made of thin films of TiNi alloy. Although the SMA actuators are depicted here as having simple shapes for the sake of clarity of illustration, the real actuators would have complex, partly net-like shapes. With the exception of the lens and the optical fibers, the SMA actuators and other components of the switch would be made by microfabrication techniques. The components would be assembled into a sandwich structure to complete the fabrication of the switch. To effect switching, an electric current would be passed through one of the SMA actuators to heat it above its transition temperature, thereby causing it to deform to a different "remembered" shape. The two SMA actuators would be stiff enough that once switching had taken place and the electrical current was turned off, the lens would remain latched in the most recently selected position. In a test, the partially developed switch exhibited an insertion loss of only -1.9 dB and a switching contrast of 70 dB. One the basis of prior research on SMA actuators and assuming a lens displacement of 125 m between extreme positions, it has been estimated that the fully developed switch would be capable of operating at a frequency as high as 10 Hz.

Yang, Eui-Hyeok↗

Communication Needs Assessment for Distributed Turbine Engine Control

Control system architecture is a major contributor to future propulsion engine performance enhancement and life cycle cost reduction. The control system architecture can be a means to effect net weight reduction in future engine systems, provide a streamlined approach to system design and implementation, and enable new opportunities for performance optimization and increased awareness about system health. The transition from a centralized, point-to-point analog control topology to a modular, networked, distributed system is paramount to extracting these system improvements. However, distributed engine control systems are only possible through the successful design and implementation of a suitable communication system. In a networked system, understanding the data flow between control elements is a fundamental requirement for specifying the communication architecture which, itself, is dependent on the functional capability of electronics in the engine environment. This paper presents an assessment of the communication needs for distributed control using strawman designs and relates how system design decisions relate to overall goals as we progress from the baseline centralized architecture, through partially distributed and fully distributed control systems.

Culley, Dennis E.↗

A History of Collapse Factor Modeling and Empirical Data for Cryogenic Propellant Tanks

One of the major technical problems associated with cryogenic liquid propellant systems used to supply rocket engines and their subassemblies and components is the phenomenon of propellant tank pressurant and ullage gas collapse. This collapse is mainly caused by heat transfer from ullage gas to tank walls and interfacing propellant, which are both at temperatures well below those of this gas. Mass transfer between ullage gas and cryogenic propellant can also occur and have minor to significant secondary effects that can increase or decrease ullage gas collapse. Pressurant gas is supplied into cryogenic propellant tanks in order to initially pressurize these tanks and then maintain required pressures as propellant is expelled from these tanks. The net effect of pressurant and ullage gas collapse is increased total mass and mass flow rate requirements of pressurant gases. For flight vehicles this leads to significant and undesirable weight penalties. For rocket engine component and subassembly ground test facilities this results in significantly increased facility hardware, construction, and operational costs. "Collapse Factor" is a parameter used to quantify the pressurant and ullage gas collapse. Accurate prediction of collapse factors, through analytical methods and modeling tools, and collection and evaluation of collapse factor data has evolved over the years since the start of space exploration programs in the 1950 s. Through the years, numerous documents have been published to preserve results of studies associated with the collapse factor phenomenon. This paper presents a summary and selected details of prior literature that document the aforementioned studies. Additionally other literature that present studies and results of heat and mass transfer processes, related to or providing important insights or analytical methods for the studies of collapse factor, are presented.

deQuay, Laurence↗

Solar and battery can reduce energy costs and provide affordable outage backup for US households

Distributed energy resources are promising solutions for household energy affordability and resilience as weather extremes and aging infrastructure intensify grid reliability risks. This study presents a comprehensive nationwide assessment of over 500,000 U.S. households, evaluating economic and backup viability of solar-battery systems. We find that 60% of households could reduce electricity costs with average savings of 15%, while 63% of households could achieve affordable backup power during power outages covering an average of 51% of their essential energy needs. However, these benefits show limited alignment with areas of greatest need, particularly in regions facing high outage risks. We also identify significant disparities in access to solar and battery, with less-populated and disadvantaged communities showing consistently lower viability. Furthermore, these findings demonstrate the need for targeted policy interventions to ensure equitable access to solar-battery benefits, especially as states transition from net energy metering to other electricity tariff policies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

The Case for Strong Scaling in Deep Learning: Training Large 3D CNNs with Hybrid Parallelism

Here, we present scalable hybrid-parallel algorithms for training large-scale 3D convolutional neural networks. Deep learning-based emerging scientific workflows often require model training with large, high-dimensional samples, which can make training much more costly and even infeasible due to excessive memory usage. We solve these challenges by extensively applying hybrid parallelism throughout the end-to-end training pipeline, including both computations and I/O. Our hybrid-parallel algorithm extends the standard data parallelism with spatial parallelism, which partitions a single sample in the spatial domain, realizing strong scaling beyond the mini-batch dimension with a larger aggregated memory capacity. We evaluate our proposed training algorithms with two challenging 3D CNNs, CosmoFlow and 3D U-Net. Our comprehensive performance studies show that good weak and strong scaling can be achieved for both networks using up to 2K GPUs. More importantly, we enable training of CosmoFlow with much larger samples than previously possible, realizing an order-of-magnitude improvement in prediction accuracy.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Analytical Framework for Homeowner-Focused Computational Cost-Benefit Mitigation Decision Making

As a result of increasing windstorm losses in the United States over the past 50 years, a variety of residential wind hazard mitigation strategies have been recommended. Wind hazard mitigation undoubtedly reduces windstorm losses; however, little customized information is available to support the economic decision-making process for individual stakeholders, especially at the consumer level. Therefore, there is a need for decision support tools to calculate, evaluate, and present the economic benefits of mitigation over variable decision-making time horizons for unique building characteristics in specific geographical locations. This paper presents a cost-benefit computational decision-making recommendation framework that evaluates and presents the cost effectiveness of mitigation, customized based on location, years of interest, and building characteristics. The decision-making framework consists of two cores. The user-independent core and user-dependent core which consists of eight steps, divided into four subprocesses: (1) data acquisition, (2) data evaluation, (3) cost-benefit calculation, and (4) results comparison and decision making. To demonstrate the framework, a wood-framed single-family home in light suburban terrain in Golden Meadow, Louisiana, is used as a case study, considering retrofit mitigation with a $15,000 budget and a decision-making time horizon of 30 years. The case study provides six mitigation options, with cost ranging between approximately $2,000 and $15,000 and net benefit/cost ratios ranging from 2.4 to 13. Once fully implemented in a decision making information tool, the developed mitigation recommendation framework will provide valuable information that can be used by home designers, builders, owners, and other stakeholders to better understand the economic facets of wind hazard mitigation, providing critical information as part of the overall decision-making process.

Orooji, Fatemeh↗

Disk MHD generator study

Directly-fired, separately-fired, and oxygen-augmented MHD power plants incorporating a disk geometry for the MHD generator were studied. The base parameters defined for four near-optimum-performance MHD steam power systems of various types are presented. The finally selected systems consisted of (1) two directly fired cases, one at 1920 K (2996F) preheat and the other at 1650 K (2500 F) preheat, (2) a separately-fired case where the air is preheated to the same level as the higher temperature directly-fired cases, and (3) an oxygen augmented case with the same generator inlet temperature of 2839 (4650F) as the high temperature directly-fired and separately-fired cases. Supersonic Mach numbers at the generator inlet, gas inlet swirl, and constant Hall field operation were specified based on disk generator optimization. System pressures were based on optimization of MHD net power. Supercritical reheat stream plants were used in all cases. Open and closed cycle component costs are summarized and compared.

Retallick, F. D.↗

Advanced ion thruster research

A series of experiments conducted on a ring cusp magnetic field ion thruster; in which the anode, cathode and discharge chamber backplate were moved relative to the magnetic cusp; are described. Optimum locations for the anode, cathode and backplate which yield the lowest energy cost per plasma ion and highest extracted ion fraction are identified. The results are discussed in terms of simple physical models. The results of preliminary experiments into the operation of hollow cathodes on nitrogen and xenon over a large pressure range (0.1 to 100 Torr) are presented. They show that the cathode discharge transfers from the cathode insert to the exterior edge of the orifice plate as the interelectrode pressure is increased. Experimental evidence showing that a new ion extractor grid concept can be used to stabilize the plasma sheath at the screen grid is presented. This concept, identified by the term constrained sheath optics, is shown to hold ion beamlet divergence and impingement characteristics to stable values as the beamlet current and the net and total accelerating voltages are changed. The current status of a study of beamlet vectoring induced by displacing the accelerator and/or decelerator grids of a three grid ion extraction system relative to the screen grid is discussed.

Wilbur, P. J.↗

Data-Driven Model Predictive Control for Temperature Management of Heat Pipe Microreactor

To enable the self-regulating capability of heat pipe (HP) microreactors, an anticipatory control strategy through model predictive control (MPC) could proactively respond to potential disturbances and deviations in operating setpoints. However, a key factor prohibiting the widespread adoption of MPCs in nuclear applications is the effort and computational costs associated with learning and calibrating first-principles-based process models when the target system is complex and when there are gaps between modeled and target reactor systems. In this paper, we demonstrate data-driven MPC using three approaches for modeling the system dynamics, including a linear state-space model, feedforward neural network, and recurrent neural networks long short-term memory. We present the development and validation process of each model and compare the performance of data-driven MPCs in controlling the temperatures of selected HPs at the evaporator and condenser regions in a 37-HP-monolith system. Our results show that, qualitatively, all data-driven MPCs are producing similar control actions, while quantitatively, with artificial neural nets (especially feedforward neural nets), MPC can better follow drastic changes in setpoints with smallest errors.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗