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At least 289 records · Page 16

Applicability study of Bayesian optimization in core neutronic design using a toy model

At the Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA), an innovative design approach named ARKADIA (Advanced Reactor Knowledge- and AI-aided Design Integration Approach through the whole plant life cycle) for advanced nuclear reactors is currently under development. One task in ARKADIA is to build a system that automatically optimizes core and fuel designs by conducting core neutronic and thermal-hydraulic calculations, fuel integrity evaluations, and plant dynamic analyses. This system will be implemented to automatically find an optimal design that minimizes (or maximizes) objective function defined by core performance while varying the core and fuel design parameters such as fuel pin diameter, core height and diameter. In this study, as the first step of system development, we focused only on core neutronic design and conducted a study of automatic optimization. As the optimization algorithm, Bayesian optimization (BO), an effective method for optimization problems with expensive computational cost of objective function, was utilized. The applicability of BO was studied based on single- and two-objective optimization examples of core neutronic design in a toy model. As a result, in the former, it was shown that BO can give the optimal solution, which matches the reference solution calculated by a brute force calculation well, with a small number of required calculations. Usability on core neutronic designs, where the computational cost per case is high, was confirmed. In the latter, it was found that BO can give a Pareto solutions-set that shows good agreement with the reference solution. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Multi-Scale Temporal Patterns in Stream Biogeochemistry Indicate Linked Permafrost and Ecological Dynamics of Boreal Catchments

Temporal patterns in stream chemistry provide integrated signals describing the hydrological and ecological state of whole catchments. However, stream chemistry integrates multi-scale signals of processes occurring in both the catchment and stream. Deconvoluting these signals could identify mechanisms of solute transport and transformation and provide a basis for monitoring ecosystem change. Here, we applied trend analysis, wavelet decomposition, multivariate autoregressive state-space modeling, and analysis of concentration-discharge relationships to assess temporal patterns in high-frequency (15 min) stream chemistry from permafrost-influenced boreal catchments in Interior Alaska at diel, storm, and seasonal time scales. We compared catchments that varied in spatial extent of permafrost to identify characteristic biogeochemical signals. Catchments with higher spatial extents of permafrost were characterized by increasing nitrate concentration through the thaw season, an abrupt increase in nitrate and fluorescent dissolved organic matter (fDOM) and declining conductivity in late summer, and flushing of nitrate and fDOM during summer rainstorms. In contrast, these patterns were absent, of lower magnitude, or reversed in catchments with lower permafrost extent. Solute dynamics revealed a positive influence of permafrost on fDOM export and the role of shallow, seasonally dynamic flowpaths in delivering solutes from high-permafrost catchments to streams. Lower spatial extent of permafrost resulted in static delivery of nitrate and limited transport of fDOM to streams. Shifts in concentration-discharge relationships and seasonal trends in stream chemistry toward less temporally dynamic patterns might therefore indicate reorganized catchment hydrology and biogeochemistry due to permafrost thaw.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Practical Guide to Chemometric Analysis of Optical Spectroscopic Data

The methodology and mathematical treatment of several classic multivariate methods for the analysis of spectroscopic data is demonstrated in a straightforward way that can be used as a basis for teaching an undergraduate introductory course on chemometric analysis. The multivariate techniques of classical least squares (CLS), principal component regression (PCR), and partial least squares (PLS), as well as the univariate Beer’s law method have been described and compared, building students’ understanding by starting with the univariate method and progressing step by step into the multivariate methods. Equations for the production of regression vectors from training set spectral data is described and their use demonstrated for the prediction of constituent concentrations on a separate validation set of spectra. Extreme care is taken to ensure consistency in variable formatting of data matrices. This provides a key foundation to understanding how spectral data are manipulated using these different mathematical approaches for building quantitative regression models. Each method is applied to a real-world data set, and the results are discussed to show students the types of information that can be gleaned from each method. A training set comprised of 20 infrared absorbance spectra containing 3 constituents (benzene, polystyrene, and gasoline) of known composition are used to demonstrate the matrix operations for each regression method. A separate set of 12 real-world napalm samples (containing benzene, polystyrene and gasoline) are used as a validation set to demonstrate the ability to utilize the regression models on an unknown dataset. A toolbox (PNNL Chemometric Toolbox) written in MATLAB language is supplied in the Supplemental Information file and can be used as a companion for understanding the development and deployment of the chemometric algorithms described in this paper. The datasets of the infrared spectra are also supplied, allowing users to build and inspect the chemometric models on their own. Finally, the Toolbox includes scripts to assist users in loading their own datasets into MATLAB and performing CLS, PCR, and PLS on their data.

Upper-Division Undergraduate, Analytical Chemistry↗

Inferring Instantaneous, Multivariate and Nonlinear Sensitivities for the Analysis of Feedback Processes in a Dynamical System: Lorenz Model Case Study

A new approach is presented for the analysis of feedback processes in a nonlinear dynamical system by observing its variations. The new methodology consists of statistical estimates of the sensitivities between all pairs of variables in the system based on a neural network modeling of the dynamical system. The model can then be used to estimate the instantaneous, multivariate and nonlinear sensitivities, which are shown to be essential for the analysis of the feedbacks processes involved in the dynamical system. The method is described and tested on synthetic data from the low-order Lorenz circulation model where the correct sensitivities can be evaluated analytically.

Aires, Filipe↗

Gaussian process analysis of electron energy loss spectroscopy data: multivariate reconstruction and kernel control

Abstract Advances in hyperspectral imaging including electron energy loss spectroscopy bring forth the challenges of exploratory and physics-based analysis of multidimensional data sets. The multivariate linear unmixing methods generally explore similarities in the energy dimension, but ignore correlations in the spatial domain. At the same time, Gaussian process (GP) explicitly incorporate spatial correlations in the form of kernel functions but is computationally intensive. Here, we implement a GP method operating on the full spatial domain and reduced representations in the energy domain. In this multivariate GP, the information between the components is shared via a common spatial kernel structure, while allowing for variability in the relative noise magnitude or image morphology. We explore the role of kernel constraints on the quality of the reconstruction, and suggest an approach for estimating them from the experimental data. We further show that spatial information contained in higher-order components can be reconstructed and spatially localized.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Analysis of Forest Foliage Using a Multivariate Mixture Model

Data with wet chemical measurements and near infrared spectra of ground leaf samples were analyzed to test a multivariate regression technique for estimating component spectra which is based on a linear mixture model for absorbance. The resulting unmixed spectra for carbohydrates, lignin, and protein resemble the spectra of extracted plant starches, cellulose, lignin, and protein. The unmixed protein spectrum has prominent absorption spectra at wavelengths which have been associated with nitrogen bonds.

Hlavka, C. A.↗

An improved Method for Determining Transient Fuel Dilution of Oil in an Internal-Combustion Engine Using Laser-Induced Florescence and Multivariate Least Square Calibration

An optical diagnostic, based on laser-induced fluorescence (LIF), has been developed for on-engine measurements of real-time fuel dilution of engine oil or fuel in oil (FIO). Fuel dilution of oil is broadly relevant to advancing engine technology including durability, calibration, and catalyst-system management, and believed to promote destructive stochastic pre-ignition (SPI) during high-load engine operations. While standard (e.g., ASTM D3524-90) methods are not capable of real-time transient measurements, the LIF technique resolves transient dilution on the minutes time scale. We have expanded on our original FIO instrument development by introducing an improved analysis based on multivariate least square chemometrics analysis. The measurement uses a fuel dye (180–1300 parts per million, by mass) and monitors for its presence in the oil using 532 nm excitation and LIF. While the original FIO instrument utilized a two-color ratio method for analysis, the improved chemometric analysis uses the fully resolved LIF dye spectra to provide better predictive FIO accuracy (>92%) over a wide FIO range (1.5–14%) typical of engine application. We also investigate the effect of oil temperature on the LIF signal. Limited engine applications for demonstrating and validating the improved FIO instrument are shown, and the related data used to quantify practical detection limit and sensitivity. The improved analysis is insensitive to laser power fluctuation and change in detector integration time, providing an excellent FIO sensitivity (1–2%) and detection limit (0.01 %FIO) over a wide range of loads and injection timings, illustrating this updated approach to be a promising tool for advancing engine technology.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Reimagining pH Measurement: Utilizing Raman Spectroscopy for Enhanced Accuracy in Phosphoric Acid Systems

Measurement of pH is an integral component of chemical studies and process control; however traditional pH probes are difficult to utilize in harsh or complex chemical systems. Optical spectroscopy-based on-line monitoring offers a powerful and novel route for characterizing system parameters, such as pH, and is well adapted to deployment in harsh environments or chemically complex systems. Specifically, Raman spectroscopy combined with chemometric analysis can provide an improved method of on-line pH measurement. Therefore, multivariate curve resolution analysis of Raman spectra can be utilized to determine speciation as a function of pH and subsequent chemometric modeling can be used to correlate spectral response to pH. This was demonstrated with phosphoric acid, a chemical system known to challenge traditional pH probes. Raman spectra exhibit clear changes with pH due to changing speciation, and chemometric modeling can be successfully utilized to correlate those fingerprints to pH. Using this approach, true pH of the phosphoric acid system can be measured with greater accuracy than with traditional pH probes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Temporal Variability of Observed and Simulated Hyperspectral Earth Reflectance

The Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) is a climate observation system designed to study Earth's climate variability with unprecedented absolute radiometric accuracy and SI traceability. Observation System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) were developed using GCM output and MODTRAN to simulate CLARREO reflectance measurements during the 21st century as a design tool for the CLARREO hyperspectral shortwave imager. With OSSE simulations of hyperspectral reflectance, Feldman et al. [2011a,b] found that shortwave reflectance is able to detect changes in climate variables during the 21st century and improve time-to-detection compared to broadband measurements. The OSSE has been a powerful tool in the design of the CLARREO imager and for understanding the effect of climate change on the spectral variability of reflectance, but it is important to evaluate how well the OSSE simulates the Earth's present-day spectral variability. For this evaluation we have used hyperspectral reflectance measurements from the Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Cartography (SCIAMACHY), a shortwave spectrometer that was operational between March 2002 and April 2012. To study the spectral variability of SCIAMACHY-measured and OSSE-simulated reflectance, we used principal component analysis (PCA), a spectral decomposition technique that identifies dominant modes of variability in a multivariate data set. Using quantitative comparisons of the OSSE and SCIAMACHY PCs, we have quantified how well the OSSE captures the spectral variability of Earth?s climate system at the beginning of the 21st century relative to SCIAMACHY measurements. These results showed that the OSSE and SCIAMACHY data sets share over 99% of their total variance in 2004. Using the PCs and the temporally distributed reflectance spectra projected onto the PCs (PC scores), we can study the temporal variability of the observed and simulated reflectance spectra. Multivariate time series analysis of the PC scores using techniques such as Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) and Multichannel SSA will provide information about the temporal variability of the dominant variables. Quantitative comparison techniques can evaluate how well the OSSE reproduces the temporal variability observed by SCIAMACHY spectral reflectance measurements during the first decade of the 21st century. PCA of OSSE-simulated reflectance can also be used to study how the dominant spectral variables change on centennial scales for forced and unforced climate change scenarios. To have confidence in OSSE predictions of the spectral variability of hyperspectral reflectance, it is first necessary for us to evaluate the degree to which the OSSE simulations are able to reproduce the Earth?s present-day spectral variability.

Roberts, Yolanda↗

Monitoring Sulfuric Acid and Temperature Using Raman Spectroscopy and Multivariate Chemometrics

Multivariate regression models were optimized for the quantification of sulfuric acid (H 2 SO 4 ) [0–8 M] and temperature (20 °C–80 °C) in the presence of ammonium sulfate ((NH 4 ) 2 SO 4 [0–0.6 M]) using Raman spectroscopy. Optical vibrational spectroscopy is a useful nondestructive technique for the in situ analysis of complex chemical systems notoriously difficult to monitor in situ and in real-time. Multivariate analysis, a chemometrics method, can be paired with these nondestructive optical methods for determining analyte concentration and speciation in complex solutions, such as dissociated species in polyprotic acids, e.g., H 2 SO 4 . The effect of temperature is often overlooked although it can have a major influence on speciation and the corresponding Raman spectra. Here, in this study, partial least squares regression models were optimized for the quantification of H 2 SO 4 and its two deprotonated forms as a function of temperature. Measuring bisulfate as a function of temperature is particularly challenging owing to changes in the second dissociation constant. A designed training set effectively minimized the sample set size and trained a robust predictive model with percent root mean square error of <3% for H 2 SO 4 . The practical strategy employed here was demonstrated to be effective for building chemometric models that directly account for dynamic temperatures with static samples and is shown to be amenable to flow cell analysis applications with a simple calibration transfer for process monitoring applications.

D-optimal design↗

Control of maglev vehicles with aerodynamic and guideway disturbances

A modeling, analysis, and control design methodology is presented for maglev vehicle ride quality performance improvement as measured by the Pepler Index. Ride quality enhancement is considered through active control of secondary suspension elements and active aerodynamic surfaces mounted on the train. To analyze and quantify the benefits of active control, the authors have developed a five degree-of-freedom lumped parameter model suitable for describing a large class of maglev vehicles, including both channel and box-beam guideway configurations. Elements of this modeling capability have been recently employed in studies sponsored by the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT). A perturbation analysis about an operating point, defined by vehicle and average crosswind velocities, yields a suitable linearized state space model for multivariable control system analysis and synthesis. Neglecting passenger compartment noise, the ride quality as quantified by the Pepler Index is readily computed from the system states. A statistical analysis is performed by modeling the crosswind disturbances and guideway variations as filtered white noise, whereby the Pepler Index is established in closed form through the solution to a matrix Lyapunov equation. Data is presented which indicates the anticipated ride quality achieved through various closed-loop control arrangements.

Flueckiger, Karl↗

T wave alternans as a predictor of recurrent ventricular tachyarrhythmias in ICD recipients: prospective comparison with conventional risk markers

INTRODUCTION: The current standard for arrhythmic risk stratification is electrophysiologic (EP) testing, which, due to its invasive nature, is limited to patients already known to be at high risk. A number of noninvasive tests, such as determination of left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) or heart rate variability, have been evaluated as additional risk stratifiers. Microvolt T wave alternans (TWA) is a promising new risk marker. Prospective evaluation of noninvasive risk markers in low- or moderate-risk populations requires studies involving very large numbers of patients, and in such studies, documentation of the occurrence of ventricular tachyarrhythmias is difficult. In the present study, we identified a high-risk population, recipients of an implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD), and prospectively compared microvolt TWA with invasive EP testing and other risk markers with respect to their ability to predict recurrence of ventricular tachyarrhythmias as documented by ICD electrograms. METHODS AND RESULTS: Ninety-five patients with a history of ventricular tachyarrhythmias undergoing implantation of an ICD underwent EP testing, assessment of TWA, as well as determination of LVEF, baroreflex sensitivity, signal-averaged ECG, analysis of 24-hour Holter monitoring, and QT dispersion from the 12-lead surface ECG. The endpoint of the study was first appropriate ICD therapy for electrogram-documented ventricular fibrillation or tachycardia during follow-up. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis revealed that TWA (P < 0.006) and LVEF (P < 0.04) were the only significant univariate risk stratifiers. EP testing was not statistically significant (P < 0.2). Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that TWA was the only statistically significant independent risk factor. CONCLUSIONS: Measurement of microvolt TWA compared favorably with both invasive EP testing and other currently used noninvasive risk assessment methods in predicting recurrence of ventricular tachyarrhythmias in ICD recipients. This study suggests that TWA might also be a powerful tool for risk stratification in low- or moderate-risk patients, and needs to be prospectively evaluated in such populations.

Non-NASA Center↗

Multivariable flight control synthesis and literal robustness analysis for an aeroelastic vehicle

An integrated flight/aeroelastic control law is developed analytically for a hypothetical large supersonic transport aircraft in which the first aeroelastic mode frequency of the fuselage (6 rad/sec) is near the short-period mode (2 rad/sec). The approach employed is based on a linear-quadratic-regulator (LQR) formulation (yielding model-following state-feedback gains), followed by asymptotic loop-transfer recovery of LQR robustness (to produce an output-feedback control law). The derivation is outlined, and numerical results comparing the performance and multivariate stability robustness of the present controller with those of a classical controller are presented in graphs. The two controllers are shown to have similar characteristics, even with respect to the sources of limitations on robustness.

Schmidt, David K.↗

Factor analysis as a tool for spectral line component separation 21cm emission in the direction of L1780

The spectra of the 21cm HI radiation from the direction of L1780, a small high-galactic latitude dark/molecular cloud, were analyzed by multivariate methods. Factor analysis was performed on HI (21cm) spectra in order to separate the different components responsible for the spectral features. The rotated, orthogonal factors explain the spectra as a sum of radiation from the background (an extended HI emission layer), and from the L1780 dark cloud. The coefficients of the cloud-indicator factors were used to locate the HI 'halo' of the molecular cloud. Our statistically derived 'background' and 'cloud' spectral profiles, as well as the spatial distribution of the HI halo emission distribution were compared to the results of a previous study which used conventional methods analyzing nearly the same data set.

Toth, L. V.↗

Data analysis techniques

A large and diverse number of computational techniques are routinely used to process and analyze remotely sensed data. These techniques include: univariate statistics; multivariate statistics; principal component analysis; pattern recognition and classification; other multivariate techniques; geometric correction; registration and resampling; radiometric correction; enhancement; restoration; Fourier analysis; and filtering. Each of these techniques will be considered, in order.

Park, Steve↗

Rapid monitoring of fermentations: a feasibility study on biological 2,3-butanediol production

2,3-butanediol (2,3-BDO) is an economically important platform chemical that can be produced by the fermentation of sugars using an engineered strain of Zymomonas mobilis . These fermentations require continuous monitoring and modification of fermentation conditions to maximize 2,3-BDO yields and minimize the production of the undesired coproducts glycerol and acetoin. Because of the time required for sampling and off-line chromatographic measurement of fermentation samples, the ability of fermentation scientists to modify fermentation conditions in a timely manner is limited. The goal of this study was to test if near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) along with multivariate statistics could reduce the time needed for this analysis and enable real-time monitoring and control of the fermentation. In this work we developed partial least squares (PLS) calibration models to predict the concentrations of glucose, xylose, 2,3-BDO, acetoin, and glycerol in fermentations via NIRS using two different spectrometers and two different spectroscopy modalities. We first evaluated the feasibility of rapid NIRS monitoring through experiments where we measured the signals from each analyte of interest and built NIRS-based PLS models using spectra from synthetic samples containing uncorrelated concentrations of these analytes. All analytes showed unique spectral signatures, and this initial modeling showed that all analytes could be detected simultaneously. We then began work with samples from laboratory fermentation experiments and tested the feasibility of regression model development across two spectral collection modalities (at-line and on-line) and two instruments: a laboratory-grade instrument and a low-cost instrument with a more limited spectral range. All modalities showed promise in the ability to monitor Z. mobilis fermentations of glucose and xylose to 2,3-BDO. The low-cost instrument displayed a lower signal-to-noise ratio than the laboratory-grade instrument, which led to comparatively lower performance overall, but still provided sufficient accuracy to monitor fermentation trends. While the ease of use of on-line monitoring systems was favored as compared to at-line systems due to the lack of sampling required and potential for automated process control, we observed some decrease in performance due to the additional complexity of the sample matrix. We have demonstrated that NIRS combined with multivariate analysis can be used for at-line and on-line monitoring of the concentrations of glucose, xylose, 2,3-BDO, acetoin, and glycerol during Z. mobilis fermentations. The decrease in signal-to-noise ratio when using a low-cost spectrometer led to greater prediction error than the laboratory-grade spectrometer for at-line monitoring. The on-line monitoring modality showed great promise for real time process control via NIRS.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗