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At least 289 records · Page 16

Remote Influence of Andean Convection on Amazonian Rainfall and Its Mechanisms

Models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 produce too much precipitation over the Andes but too little over the Amazon or the Wet Andes-Dry Amazon (WADA) bias pattern. Unlike the conventional view that convection parameterization and land model deficiencies can contribute to Amazonian rainfall biases, we approach this long-standing biased model behavior through the lens of Andean convection. Using Community Earth System Model v1.1 and focusing on the wet season, our mechanism-denial experiments demonstrate that Andean convection notably reduces precipitation over the Amazon during austral summer. The Andean forced Amazonian response operates on weather timescale. Furthermore, the reduction of Amazonian rainfall is detectable within a few hours after initial Andean forcing. The precipitation response is primarily driven by variations in the moisture budget and is moderated by changes in convective available potential energy over the Amazon. Changes in the total advection of moisture over the Amazon are dominated by the vertical advection term and can be attributed to discrepancies in the dynamic omega field. In the experiments, the Andean east flank region is scrutinized where the vertical velocity and moisture fields play an intermediary role for the Andean driven WADA connection. The Andean forcing induces descending anomalies on the Andean east flank. The disturbances of wind and geopotential fields over the Andean east flank propagate eastward via Kelvin waves. Over the Amazon, descending anomalies and advective drying lead to reduction of mid-to-high level cloud, increase of shortwave cloud forcing and surface net radiation, and enhancement of themodynamic stability and rainfall reduction.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Assimilation of Goes-Derived Skin Temperature Tendencies into Mesoscale Models to Improve Forecasts of near Surface Air Temperature and Mixing Ratio

A technique has been developed for assimilating GOES-FR skin temperature tendencies into the surface energy budget equation of a mesoscale model so that the simulated rate of temperature chance closely agrees with the satellite observations. A critical assumption of the technique is that the availability of moisture (either from the soil or vegetation) is the least known term in the model's surface energy budget. Therefore, the simulated latent heat flux, which is a function of surface moisture availability, is adjusted based upon differences between the modeled and satellite-observed skin temperature tendencies. An advantage of this technique is that satellite temperature tendencies are assimilated in an energetically consistent manner that avoids energy imbalances and surface stability problems that arise from direct assimilation of surface shelter temperatures. The fact that the rate of change of the satellite skin temperature is used rather than the absolute temperature means that sensor calibration is not as critical. An advantage of this technique for short-range forecasts (0-48 h) is that it does not require a complex land-surface formulation within the atmospheric model. As a result, the need to specify poorly known soil and vegetative characteristics is eliminated. The GOES assimilation technique has been incorporated into the PSU/NCAR MM5. Results will be presented to demonstrate the ability of the assimilation scheme to improve short- term (0-48h) simulations of near-surface air temperature and mixing ratio during the warm season for several selected cases which exhibit a variety of atmospheric and land-surface conditions. In addition, validation of terms in the simulated surface energy budget will be presented using in situ data collected at the Southern Great Plains (SGP) Cloud And Radiation Testbed (CART) site as part of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurements Program (ARM).

Lapenta, William M.↗

A Technique for Assimilating GOES-Derived Land Surface Products into Regional Models to Improve the Representation of Land Surface Forcing

As the parameterizations of surface energy budgets in regional models have become more complete physically, models have the potential to be much more realistic in simulations of coupling between surface radiation, hydrology, and surface energy transfer. Realizing the importance of properly specifying the surface energy budget, many institutions are using land-surface models to represent the lower boundary forcing associated with biophysical processes and soil hydrology. However, the added degrees of freedom due to inclusion of such land-surface schemes require the specification of additional parameters within the model system such as vegetative resistances, green vegetation fraction, leaf area index, soil physical and hydraulic characteristics, stream flow, runoff, and the vertical distribution of soil moisture. A technique has been developed for assimilating GOES-IR skin temperature tendencies into the surface energy budget equation of a mesoscale model so that the simulated rate of temperature change closely agrees with the satellite observations. A critical assumption of the technique is that the availability of moisture (either from the soil or vegetation) is the least known term in the model's surface energy budget. Therefore, the simulated latent heat flux, which is a function of surface moisture availability, is adjusted based upon differences between the modeled and satellite-observed skin temperature tendencies. An advantage of this technique is that satellite temperature tendencies are assimilated in an energetically consistent manner that avoids energy imbalances and surface stability problems that arise from direct assimilation of surface shelter temperatures. The fact that the rate of change of the satellite skin temperature is used rather than the absolute temperature means that sensor calibration is not as critical. An advantage of this technique for short-range forecasts is that it does not require a complex land-surface formulation within the atmospheric model. As a result, the need to specify poorly known soil and vegetative characteristics is eliminated. The GOES assimilation technique has been incorporated into the PSU/NCAR MM5. Results will be presented to demonstrate the ability of the assimilation scheme to improve short-term simulations of near-surface air temperature and mixing ratio during the warm season for several selected cases during June of 1995 and June 1997 which exhibit a variety of atmospheric and land-surface conditions. In addition, the simulations produced by the assimilation technique will be compared with those produced by the MM5/BATS coupled model initialized with soil water content derived from a soil hydrology model.

Lapenta, William M.↗

Use of Geostationary Satellite Data to Force Land Surface Schemes within Atmospheric Mesoscale Models

A technique has been developed for assimilating GOES-derived skin temperature tendencies and insolation into the surface energy budget equation of a mesoscale model so that the simulated rate of temperature change closely agrees with the satellite observations. A critical assumption of the technique is that the availability of moisture (either from the soil or vegetation) is the least known term in the model's surface energy budget. Therefore, the simulated latent heat flux, which is a function of surface moisture availability, is adjusted based upon differences between the modeled and satellite-observed skin temperature tendencies. An advantage of this technique is that satellite temperature tendencies are assimilated in an energetically consistent manner that avoids energy imbalances and surface stability problems that arise from direct assimilation of surface shelter temperatures. The fact that the rate of change of the satellite skin temperature is used rather than the absolute temperature means that sensor calibration is not as critical. The technique has been employed on a semi-operational basis at the GHCC within the PSU/NCAR MM5. Assimilation has been performed on a grid centered over the Southeastern US since November 1998. Results from the past year show that assimilation of the satellite data reduces both the bias and RMSE for simulations of surface air temperature and relative humidity. These findings are based on comparison of assimilation runs with a control using the simple 5-layer soil model available in MM5. A significant development in the past several months was the inclusion of the detailed Oregon State University land surface model (OSU/LSM) as an option within MM5. One of our working hypotheses has been that the assimilation technique, although simple, may provide better short-term forecasts than a detailed LSM that requires significant number initialized parameters. Preliminary results indicate that the assimilation out performs the OSU/LSM as it is incorporated in MM5. Details will be presented at the symposium.

Lapenta, William M.↗

Assimilation of GOES Land Surface Data into a Mesoscale Models

A technique has been developed for assimilating Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES)-derived skin temperature tendencies and insolation into the surface energy budget equation of a mesoscale model so that the simulated rate of temperature change closely agrees with the satellite observations. A critical assumption of the technique is that the availability of moisture (either from the soil or vegetation) is the least known term in the model's surface energy budget. Therefore, the simulated latent heat flux, which is a function of surface moisture availability, is adjusted based upon differences between the modeled and satellite-observed skin temperature tendencies. An advantage of this technique is that satellite temperature tendencies are assimilated in an energetically consistent manner that avoids energy imbalances and surface stability problems that arise from direct assimilation of surface shelter temperatures. The fact that the rate of change of the satellite skin temperature is used rather than the absolute temperature means that sensor calibration is not as critical. The assimilation technique has been applied to the Oklahoma-Kansas region during the spring-summer 2000 time period when dynamic changes in vegetation cover occur. In April, central Oklahoma is characterized by large NDVI associated with winter wheat while surrounding areas are primarily rangeland with lower NDVI. In July the vegetation pattern reverses as the central wheat area changes to low NDVI due to harvesting and the surrounding rangeland is greener than it was in April. The goal of this study is to determine if assimilating satellite land surface data can improve simulation of the complex spatial distribution of surface energy and water fluxes across this region. The PSU/NCAR NM5 V3 system is used in this study. The grid configuration consists of a 36-km CONUS domain and a 12-km nest over the area of interest. Bulk verification statistics (BIAS and RMSE) of surface air temperature and dewpoint indicates that assimilation of the satellite data results reduces both the bias and RMSE for both state variables. In addition, comparison of model data with ARM/CART EBBR flux observations reveals that the assimilation technique adjusts the bowen ratio in a realistic fashion.

Lapenta, William M.↗

Durability of YSZ Coated Ti2AlC in 1300 °C Mach 0.3 Burner Rig Tests

A thermal barrier coating system survived burner rig testing at 1300 °C for 500 h. A 160 µm thick yttria stabilized zirconia (YSZ) coating was applied to a Ti2AlC MAX phase bar sample by plasma spray physical vapor deposition (PS-PVD) and tested face-on in an atmospheric Mach 0.3 jet fuel burner, using 5-h thermal cycles. No thermal barrier coating (TBC) spallation or recession was observed, only a 2.4 mg/cm2 mass gain. The modest weight gain precluded severe volatility losses under high velocity burner conditions. The coating surface exhibited colonies of (111)flourite fiber-textured columns separated by craze patterns, with no visible moisture attack. The metastable tetragonal t' YSZ phase was obtained initially, transitioning to equilibrium teq and cubic YSZ, but with little detrimental monoclinic. The thickness of the alumina TGO was ~21 to 23 μm under the heated YSZ face and ~13 to 15 μm on the uncoated, cooler backside. The backside exhibited removal of initial transient TiO2 nodules and partial etching of the underlying Al2O3 scale by volatile hydroxides formed in high temperature, high velocity water vapor. Aerodynamic forces produced some bending of the cantilevered sample via creep. The test indicated exceptional stability of YSZ coatings on Ti2AlC under turbine conditions, with thermal expansion matching playing a key role. The purpose of this study was to demonstrate long term durability of YSZ/MAX phase system in aggressive high temperature burner rig testing. MAX phases have been keenly studied because of their unique crystal structure and intriguing properties (Refs. 1 and 2). Having Mn+1(Al,Si)(C,N)n general composition, they are defined as ceramics, but possess unusual desirable attributes such as high conductivity, thermal shock resistance, easy machinability, and deformation tolerance. The mechanical properties derive from weak M-(Al,Si) bonding in the basal plane that leads to sliding and kinking in preference to catastrophic crack growth. Like most ceramics they are phase stable at high temperatures, generally up to 1500 °C. High temperature oxidation resistance is excellent for alumina-forming Ti3AlC2, Ti2AlC, and Cr2AlC, as reviewed by Tallman, et al. (Ref. 3). Compatibility with α-Al2O3 scales is further enhanced in cyclic exposures by a close matching of thermal expansion coefficients, (Ref. 4) i.e., (~9.3, 10.2, 11.3×10–6/K for Al2O3, Ti2AlC, and YSZ, to be discussed). Turbine environments generally contain 10 percent water vapor in the combustion gases, therefore moisture effects can be a concern for some materials (Ref. 5). Furnace tests of MAX phases in high temperature steam generally showed little effect on Al2O3 scale growth (Ref. 6). However, high velocity and high pressure gas can influence scale losses by the formation of volatile reaction products, such as TiO(OH)2 and Al(OH)3 (Refs. 7 to 10). This phenomenon had been discussed for 1100 to 1300 °C high pressure burner rig tests of Ti2AlC (Ref. 11). A single cubic growth rate parameter kcubic was measurably lower than comparable furnace TGA data, but it could be matched reasonably well if corrected for a slight volatility term. In general, a two-parameter cubic-linear growth-volatility law was believed to apply. Corresponding scale volatility loss rates, directly measured at 1300 °C on a pre-oxidized sample, were moderate (0.012 mg/cm2/h) and largely attributed to removal of the initial TiO2 transient scale. A related CH4 burner study of high purity Cr2AlC MAX phase demonstrated 1200 °C durability after 500 rapid (5 min. heat and 2 min. cool) thermal shock cycling (29 h hot time) (Ref. 12). Heating and cooling rates were ~1000 and 500 °C per minute, with a gas velocity of 5 m/s, producing a 75 °C/mm gradient. A 7 μm Al2O3 surface scale and a 13 μm Cr7C3 depletion zone formed with no signs of failure. No evidence of scale volatility was evident, although weight change was not provided, the velocity was moderate, and the total hot time was not extensive. The same high gradient BRT was used to produce 1400 °C surface temperatures for a YSZ/Cr2AlC/IN738 system in the first study of MAX phases used as bond coats for thermal barrier coatings (TBC) (Ref. 25). Here TBC failure was reported after 745 cycles, with only a 1.5 μm Al2O3 scale entrained within a porous, Cr7C3 bondcoat depletion phase. YSZ thermal barrier coatings have been considered to be a compatible complement to Al-MAX phases because of thermal expansion matching and extremely low volatility in water vapor. Initial studies showed superior oxidative stability up to 1300 °C, for long times (at least 500 h) for Ti2AlC substrates and less (268 h) for Cr2AlC, while withstanding large alumina TGO scale thickness (~35 to 40 μm) (Refs. 13 and 14). By comparison, typical superalloy systems can only survive 1150 °C maximum interface temperatures for extended periods, with a maximum sustained TGO below 10 μm (Ref. 15). High temperature SiC based systems are known to form slow-growing SiO2 scales. But these are subject to rate enhancement and volatile Si(OH)4 products in the presence of water vapor, as described comprehensively by Opila, et al. (Refs. 5, 16 to 19). Net weight losses are generally observed in high velocity, high pressure burner rig studies (e.g., 0.084 mg/cm2/h at 1300 °C) (Ref. 20). Furthermore, the loss rates have been shown from chemical physics to scale with v1/2 and pH2O 2 (Ref. 16). Low activity, moisture-resistant environmental barrier coatings (EBC), such as rare earth silicates, are needed to prevent substrate recession under turbine conditions (Refs. 21 to 23).

Smialek, James L.↗

Detection of mountain-induced mesoscale wave structures with high resolution moisture imagery

During a multispectral atmospheric mapping sensor flight onboard a NASA U2 high altitude aircraft in 1985, wave features were found in water vapor channel imagery in the vicinity of the Sierra Nevada mountains of California. The paper presents evidence for the existence of lee waves in the absence of clouds. An evaluation of wind profiles and stability in the surrounding region supports the existence of these waves.

Jedlovec, Gary J.↗

Low level moisture from VAS

Previous research and current opinion are too pessimistic concerning the capability of defining moisture fields from satellite measurements. The TIROS-N sounder is a close analogue to what will fly on GEOS-D and can be used to investigate the probable capability of VAS. Basically, there are three frequencies applied to sensing moisture in the troposphere. The ability of these three measurements to define the moisture pattern is assessed. It is certainly true that one cannot achieve the detail available with a radiosonde hygristor. Sharp discontinuities cannot be sensed by a passive sounder, especially since the measurement tends to "saturate" with the first moisture layer encountered. However, the satellite measurements demonstrate a high degree of skill in defining the horizontal gradient. Moisture "tongues" and "dry lines" are readily delineated with some, perhaps two layers, of vertical definition. These attributes allow both the calculation of important advective quantities as well as (in concert with the temperature sounding) a gross definition of the vertical stability. The skill is demonstrably commensurate with subsynoptic forecast models and perhaps even to regional scale models.

Hayden, C. M.↗

Reliability Issues with Polymer and MnO2 Tantalum Capacitors for Space Applications

This work gives a comparative analysis of degradation processes, failure modes and mechanisms in MnO2 and polymer technology capacitors. Analyzed conditions include effects of vacuum and radiation, soldering (pop-corning), long-term storage and operation at high temperatures, stability at low and high temperatures, and anomalous transients. Screening and qualification procedures to assure space-grade quality of CPTCs are suggested.

tantalum capacitors↗

Subseasonal Forecasting and MJO Teleconnections in Machine Learning Weather Prediction Models

Abstract In recent years, machine‐learning (ML) models trained on reanalysis data have rivaled physics‐based forecast models in terms of performance skill for global weather forecasting. With increased rollout stability, the question of how these models perform for subseasonal to seasonal (S2S, week 3–8) forecasting has emerged. In this study we run a large set of subseasonal hindcasts over 2004–2023 to evaluate two ML weather forecast models at the S2S time scale, SFNO‐HENS (Nvidia, fully ML) and NeuralGCM (Google Research, hybrid). Corresponding hindcasts from the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are used as a baseline for comparison to a physics‐based model. Because our focus is on predicting moisture transport over the Western United States between October and March, we evaluate the models' prediction skill for the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) and its associated teleconnections in the North Pacific. We find that both ML models are competitive with the ECWMF model, with comparable skill in predicting the North Pacific large‐scale circulation and the MJO at week 3 and beyond. Even though overall the mid‐latitude subseasonal prediction skill remains low, the ML models exhibit interesting behavior such as a realistic propagation of the MJO across the Maritime Continent and realistic teleconnections. A SFNO‐HENS sensitivity experiment with altered initial conditions in the tropics demonstrates the stability of the model, and it illustrates the capability of ML models to represent important physical processes of the atmosphere at the S2S time scale. Plain Language Summary Predicting weather patterns and precipitation a few weeks in advance (subseasonal time scale) is of great interest for stakeholders such as water managers in the Southwest United States (US), where arid conditions prevail. Subseasonal forecasts from traditional weather forecast models exhibit low skill in the region, limiting their applicability. Here we examine whether the recent breakthrough in weather forecasting made with machine learning/artificial intelligence models can translate to improved subseasonal forecasts. Recently‐developed machine learning models exhibit comparable skill to a state‐of‐the‐art physics‐based model for predicting weather patterns in the North Pacific/North America region, and associated moisture transport. The same applies to their skill in predicting the tropical pattern, the Madden‐Julian Oscillation, and its important remote perturbations over the midlatitude East Pacific and Southwest US. Additionally, a perturbation experiment carried out with one of the machine learning models illustrates their ability to not only predict the evolution of atmospheric fields, but also to learn and represent physical processes such as tropics‐extratropics Rossby wave propagation. Key Points Two machine learning weather forecast models exhibit state‐of‐the‐art prediction skill at the subseasonal time scale in the Pacific sector The models equal ECWMF in terms of Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) prediction skill, and they accurately predict the MJO propagation and associated teleconnections The two machine‐learning models represent key physical processes for subseasonal prediction, despite being trained for weather forecasting

Peings, Yannick↗

Winter warming rapidly increases carbon degradation capacities of fungal communities in tundra soil: Potential consequences on carbon stability

We report high-latitude tundra ecosystems are increasingly affected by climate warming. As an important fraction of soil microorganisms, fungi play essential roles in carbon degradation, especially the old, chemically recalcitrant carbon. However, it remains obscure how fungi respond to climate warming and whether fungi, in turn, affect carbon stability of tundra. In a 2-year winter soil warming experiment of 2°C by snow fences, we investigated responses of fungal communities to warming in the active layer of an Alaskan tundra. Although fungal community composition, revealed by the 28S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing, remained unchanged (p > .05), fungal functional gene composition, revealed by a microarray named GeoChip, was altered (p < .05). Changes in functional gene composition were linked to winter soil temperature, thaw depth, soil moisture, and gross primary productivity (canonical correlation analysis, p < .05). Specifically, relative abundances of fungal genes encoding invertase, xylose reductase and vanillin dehydrogenase significantly increased (p < .05), indicating higher carbon degradation capacities of fungal communities under warming. Accordingly, we detected changes in fungal gene networks under warming, including higher average path distance, lower average clustering coefficient and lower percentage of negative links, indicating that warming potentially changed fungal interactions. Together, our study reveals higher carbon degradation capacities of fungal communities under short-term warming and highlights the potential impacts of fungal communities on tundra ecosystem respiration, and consequently future carbon stability of high-latitude tundra.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

The effects of moisture on trapped mountain lee waves

The effects of latent heat release on the dynamics of mountain lee waves are examined with the aid of two-dimensional numerical simulations, for several situations in which the Scorer parameter has a nearly two-layer vertical structure. Changes in the moisture in the lowest layer are found to produce three fundamentally different behaviors: (1) resonant waves in an absolutely stable environment are distorted and untrapped by an increase in moisture; (2) resonant waves in a conditionally unstable layer are destroyed by an increase in moisture; and (3) resonant waves in a moist environment are detuned by a decrease in moisture. Changes in the humidity in the upper layer are found to amplify or damp the wave response, depending on the depth of the lower layer. In most situations, the wave response is significantly more complicated than that predicted by simply replacing the dry stability with an equivalent moist stability in the saturated layer.

Durran, D. R.↗

Chemical durability of high-temperature superconductor YBa2Cu3O(7-x) in aqueous environments

The stability of YBa2Cu3O(7-x) in water and 100-percent humidity has been investigated at three temperatures, using pH measurements, X-ray diffraction, and scanning electron microscopy. The oxide-ceramic superconductor is highly unstable; it reacts rapidly with water and degrades in moisture. Dissolution of the oxide perovskite in water is highly incongruent. The corrosion products are found to be BaCO3, CuO, O2, etc. Barium hydroxide is first formed and further reacts with atmospheric CO2 to form needle-shaped crystals of BaCO3. For any practical applications, devices made from these materials would have to be protected with an impermeable coating to prevent deterioration from atmosphere.

Bansal, Narottam P.↗

Machine Learning for Improving Surface-Layer-Flux Estimates

Abstract Flows in the atmospheric boundary layer are turbulent, characterized by a large Reynolds number, the existence of a roughness sublayer and the absence of a well-defined viscous layer. Exchanges with the surface are therefore dominated by turbulent fluxes. In numerical models for atmospheric flows, turbulent fluxes must be specified at the surface; however, surface fluxes are not known a priori and therefore must be parametrized. Atmospheric flow models, including global circulation, limited area models, and large-eddy simulation, employ Monin–Obukhov similarity theory (MOST) to parametrize surface fluxes. The MOST approach is a semi-empirical formulation that accounts for atmospheric stability effects through universal stability functions. The stability functions are determined based on limited observations using simple regression as a function of the non-dimensional stability parameter representing a ratio of distance from the surface and the Obukhov length scale (Obukhov in Trudy Inst Theor Geofiz AN SSSR 1:95–115, 1946), $$z/L$$ z / L . However, simple regression cannot capture the relationship between governing parameters and surface-layer structure under the wide range of conditions to which MOST is commonly applied. We therefore develop, train, and test two machine-learning models, an artificial neural network (ANN) and random forest (RF), to estimate surface fluxes of momentum, sensible heat, and moisture based on surface and near-surface observations. To train and test these machine-learning algorithms, we use several years of observations from the Cabauw mast in the Netherlands and from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Field Research Division tower in Idaho. The RF and ANN models outperform MOST. Even when we train the RF and ANN on one set of data and apply them to the second set, they provide more accurate estimates of all of the fluxes compared to MOST. Estimates of sensible heat and moisture fluxes are significantly improved, and model interpretability techniques highlight the logical physical relationships we expect in surface-layer processes.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Ambient field seismology in critical zone hydrological sciences

Passive ambient noise monitoring is an emerging tool in environmental seismology, leveraging the ambient seismic field to assess temporal variations in shallow subsurface properties. This review focuses on the potential and challenges of using scattered coda waves from noise correlation functions to monitor critical zone dynamics. The sensitivity of seismic velocities to various environmental factors, including precipitation, snowmelt, atmospheric pressure, and groundwater fluctuations, underscores the method’s versatility. While coda waves excel in detecting subtle changes due to their scattered nature, ballistic waves provide higher spatial resolution, albeit with challenges in source stability. Advances in seismic sensing, including distributed acoustic sensing and low-cost geophone networks, have enabled high-resolution monitoring of hydrological processes, subsurface deformation, and seismic hazards. Integrating seismic data with hydrological models provides insights into water storage, pore pressure changes, and soil moisture dynamics. However, limitations in spatial resolution, calibration with ground truth data, and coupled effects between environmental factors remain key challenges. This review emphasizes the importance of interdisciplinary approaches in refining methodologies, enhancing sensor deployments, and addressing data gaps. Passive seismic monitoring offers opportunities to understand critical zone processes and their broader impacts on seismic hazards and environmental sustainability.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Cloud Radiative Effects on MJO Development in DYNAMO

Observed Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) events are examined with the aid of regional model simulations to understand the role of cloud radiative effects in the MJO development. The importance of this role is demonstrated by the absence of MJO in the model simulations that contain no cloud radiative effects. Comparisons of model simulations with and without the cloud radiative effects and observation help identify the major processes arising from those effects. Those processes develop essentially from heating in the upper-troposphere due to shortwave absorption within anvil clouds in the upper troposphere and the convergence of longwave radiation in the middle-upper troposphere, with a peak at 300-hPa, during deep convection. First, that heating adds extra buoyancy and accelerates the rising motion in the upper troposphere in deep convection. The vertical acceleration in the upper troposphere creates a vacuum effect and demands for more deep convection to develop. Second, in response to that demand and required by mass balance arises the large-scale horizontal and vertical mass, moisture, and energy convergence. It strengthens deep convection and, with the feedback from continuing cloud radiative effect, creates conditions that can perpetuate deep convection and MJO development. That perpetuation does not occur however because those processes arising from the cloud radiative heating in the upper troposphere stabilize the troposphere till it supports no further deep convection. Weakening deep convection reduces cloud radiative effects. The subsequent reduction of the vacuum effect in the upper troposphere diminishes deep convection completing an MJO cycle. These results advance our understanding of the development of the MJO in the radiative-convective system over warm waters in the tropics. They show that while the embryo of intraseasonal oscillation may exist in the system its growth/development is largely dependent on cloud radiative effects and feedbacks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Investigating the Crosslinking, Degradation, and Adhesion Behavior of Photovoltaic Encapsulants Under Thermal Accelerated Aging

Degradation of photovoltaic (PV) module encapsulant characteristics that lead to mechanical embrittlement and delamination remains a cause of failure in solar installations. A multiscale reliability model connecting the encapsulant mechanical and fracture properties to the degraded molecular structure and interfacial bonding to adjacent solar cell and glass substrates was previously published. The model, developed primarily for poly(ethylene-co-vinyl acetate) acetate (EVA) encapsulants, remains to be experimentally validated. Determining the degradation and crosslinking kinetics of alternative encapsulants, such as polyolefin elastomer (POE) and EVA/POE/EVA composites (EPE), can generalize the model. In this work, we subject fully cured EVA, POE, and EPE encapsulants to accelerated thermal aging to determine how high temperatures impact reaction kinetics. An increase in gel content (crosslinking) and decrease in crystallinity of the encapsulants under hot-aerobic (90 degrees C, 22% RH) and hot-anaerobic (90 degrees C, sealed in N 2 air) aging were observed, even in the absence of UV and crosslinking initiators. Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR)-attenuated total reflectance analysis showed insignificant encapsulant degradation, demonstrating the critical role of UV and moisture in accelerating degradation. Adhesion testing performed on coupon-level specimens (cell/encapsulant/glass laminates) showed decreases in adhesion energy, Gc , from 5000 h of hot-dry (90 degrees C, ~1% RH) and hot-humid (90 degrees C, 60% RH) aging. POE coupons demonstrated the best stability, followed by EPE then EVA. For EVA and POE, hot-humid aged coupons experienced a larger decrease in Gc due to enhanced hydrolytic degradation. Hot-dry aging condition demonstrated that thermal degradation of the interface could be significant even if the encapsulant experiences negligible degradation in the absence of UV and elevated humidity.

accelerated aging↗

Possible Influences of Air Pollution, Dust and Sandstorms on the Indian Monsoon

In Asian monsoon countries, such as China and India, human health and safety problems caused by air pollution are becoming increasingly serious, due to the increased loading of atmospheric pollutants from waste gas emissions and from rising energy demand associated with the rapid pace of industrialization and modernization. Meanwhile, uneven distribution of monsoon rain associated with flash floods or prolonged drought, has caused major loss of human life and damage to crops and.property with devastating societal impacts. Historically, air-pollution and monsoons research are treated as separate problems. However recent studies have suggested that the two problems may be intrinsically linked and need to be studied jointly. Fundamentally, aerosols can affect precipitation through radiative effects cif suspended particles in the atmosphere (direct effect) and/or by interfering and changing: the cloud and precipitation formation processes (indirect effect). Based on their optical properties, aerosols can be classified into two types.: those that absorb solar radiation, and those that do not. Both types of aerosols scatter sunlight and reduce the amount of solar radiation from reaching the Earth's surface, causing it to cool. The surface cooling increases atmospheric stability and reduces convection potential, Absorbing aerosols, however, in addition to cooling the surface, can heat the atmosphere. The heating of the atmosphere may reduce the amount of low clouds by increased evaporation in cloud drops. The heating, however, may induce rising motion, enhance low-level moisture, convergence and, hence, increases rainfall, The latent heating from enhanced rainfall may excite feedback processes in the large-scale circulation, further amplify.the initial response to aerosol heating and producing more rain. Additionally, aerosols can increase the concentration of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), increase cloud amount and decrease coalescence and collision rates, leading to reduced precipitation. However, in the presence of increasing moist and warm air, the reduced coalescence/collision may lead to supercooled drops at higher altitudes where ice precipitation falls and melts. The latent heat release from freezing aloft and melting below implies greater upward heat transport in polluted clouds and invigorate deep convection. In this way, aerosols may lead to increased local convection. Hence, depending on the ambient large-scale conditions and dynamical feedback processes, aerosols' effect on precipitation can be positive, negative or mixed. In the Asian monsoon and adjacent regions, the aerosol forcing and responses of the water cycle are even more complex, Both direct and indirect effects may take place locally and simultaneously, interacting with each other. in addition to local effects, monsoon rainfall may be affected by aerosols transported from other regions and intensified through large-scale circulation and moisture feedback. Thus, dust transported by the large-scale circulation from the adjacent deserts to northern India may affect rainfall over the Bay of Bengal; sulphate and black carbon front industrial pollution in central, southern China and northern India may affect the rainfall regime over the Korean peninsula and Japan; organic and black carbon front biomass burning from Indo-China may modulate the pre-monsoon rainfall regime over southern China and coastal regions, contributing to variability in differential heating and cooling of the atmosphere and to the land-sea thermal contrast. During the pre-monsoon season and monsoon breaks, it has been suggested that radiative forcing by absorbing aerosols have nearly the same order of magnitude as the forcing due to latent heating from convection and surface fluxes. The magnitude of the total aerosol radiative cooling due to sulphates and soot is of the order of 20-40 W/m2 over the Asian monsoon land region in the pre-monsoon season, compared to about 1-2 W/m2 for global warng. However, the combined forcing at the surface and in the atmosphere, including all species. if aerosols, and details of aerosol mixing, and impacts on the energy and water cycles in the monsoon land regions, are not well known.

Lau, William K. M.↗