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DOE OSTI2023

The GMRT archive atomic gas survey – II. Mass modelling and dark matter halo properties across late-type spirals

Studying the kinematics and mass modelling of galaxies from H i 21 cm data provides valuable insights into the properties of both the baryonic components and the dark matter halo in nearby galaxies. Despite many observational studies, mass modelling of galaxies remains challenging due to different limitations. For example, most of the previous studies involving mass modelling are based on rotation curves derived from 2D velocity fields from H i or H α spectroscopic observation which are often affected by beam smearing and projection effect. However, kinematic modelling done by fitting the ‘Tilted ring model’ to 3D data cube is not affected by these issues. In this study, we present and compare 3D kinematic modelling of a pilot sample of 11 galaxies from the GMRT archive atomic gas survey (GARCIA) using two different publicly available pipelines. We model the observed H i rotation curve using 3.6-μm infrared data and SDSS r-band data for stellar contribution, H i surface density profile for gas, and Navarro–Frenk–White profile for dark matter halo; and employ the Markov chain Monte Carlo optimization method for parameter estimation. Further, to validate our analysis, we revisit important scaling relations, e.g. the M gas –M star relation, M star –M halo relation, M gas –M halo relation and Baryonic Tully–Fisher relation. Here, the scaling relations from our analysis are broadly consistent with that reported in the literature. A larger sample of galaxies from GARCIA in the near future will allow studying these scaling relations in greater details.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Improved Diagnosis of Precipitation Type with LightGBM Machine Learning

Abstract Existing precipitation-type algorithms have difficulty discerning the occurrence of freezing rain and ice pellets. These inherent biases are not only problematic in operational forecasting but also complicate the development of model-based precipitation-type climatologies. To address these issues, this paper introduces a novel light gradient-boosting machine (LightGBM)-based machine learning precipitation-type algorithm that utilizes reanalysis and surface observations. By comparing it with the Bourgouin precipitation-type algorithm as a baseline, we demonstrate that our algorithm improves the critical success index (CSI) for all examined precipitation types. Moreover, when compared with the precipitation-type diagnosis in reanalysis, our algorithm exhibits increased F1 scores for snow, freezing rain, and ice pellets. Subsequently, we utilize the algorithm to compute a freezing-rain climatology over the eastern United States. The resulting climatology pattern aligns well with observations; however, a significant mean bias is observed. We interpret this bias to be influenced by both the algorithm itself and assumptions regarding precipitation processes, which include biases associated with freezing drizzle, precipitation occurrence, and regional synoptic weather patterns. To mitigate the overall bias, we propose increasing the precipitation cutoff from 0.04 to 0.25 mm h −1 , as it better reflects the precision of precipitation observations. This adjustment yields a substantial reduction in the overall bias. Finally, given the strong performance of LightGBM in predicting mixed precipitation episodes, we anticipate that the algorithm can be effectively utilized in operational settings and for diagnosing precipitation types in climate model outputs. Significance Statement Freezing rain can have significant impacts on transportation and infrastructure, making accurate prediction of precipitation types crucial. In this study, we use a machine learning method known as LightGBM to predict precipitation types. We show that the new algorithm performs better than the existing methods for all precipitation types examined. Additionally, we compute a freezing-rain climatology over the eastern United States. Although the resulting climatology pattern corresponds well to observations, the algorithm overpredicts freezing-rain occurrence. We argue that this bias can be substantially reduced by increasing the precipitation cutoff from 0.04 to 0.25 mm h −1 . Overall, this work highlights the potential of the LightGBM algorithm for both weather forecasting and diagnosing precipitation types in climate models.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2023

The Early Light Curve of the Type Ia Supernova 2021hpr in NGC 3147: Progenitor Constraints with the Companion Interaction Model

The progenitor system of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) is expected to be a close binary system consisting of a carbon/oxygen white dwarf (WD) and a nondegenerate star or another WD. Here, we present results from high-cadence monitoring observations of SN 2021hpr in a spiral galaxy, NGC 3147, and constraints on the progenitor system based on its early multicolor light-curve data. First, we classify SN 2021hpr as a normal SN Ia from its long-term photometric and spectroscopic data. More interestingly, we found a significant "early excess" in the light curve over a simple power-law ~t 2 evolution. The early light curve evolves from blue to red to blue during the first week. To explain this, we fitted the early part of the BVRI-band light curves with a two-component model consisting of ejecta–companion interaction and a simple power-law model. The early excess and its color can be explained by shock-cooling emission due to a companion star having a radius of 8.84 ± 0.58 R ⊙ . We also examined Hubble Space Telescope preexplosion images, finding no detection of a progenitor candidate, consistent with the above result. However, we could not detect signs of a significant amount of stripped mass from a nondegenerate companion star (≲0.003 M ⊙ for Hα emission). The early excess light in the multiband light curve supports a nondegenerate companion in the progenitor system of SN 2021hpr. At the same time, the nondetection of emission lines opens the door for other methods to explain this event.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Toward integrating high-fidelity CFD approaches in the thermal-hydraulic analysis of turbulent dry cask systems

Nuclear power plants have been supplying resilient and reliable electricity for decades, contributing to energy independence of the U.S.. However, nuclear waste management remains one of the most significant challenges in the industry. The safety of dry cask storage systems relies heavily on their thermal-hydraulic performance. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations are often used to demonstrate this performance and ensure that the system design meets safety standards. This study presents reduced numerical models for various types of dry cask systems. These numerical models can produce efficient and fast results based on the employed modeling strategies. Additionally, the study uses a novel approach to high-fidelity simulations to evaluate modeling assumptions in dry cask modeling. Large Eddy Simulations (LES) are used for this purpose, particularly in regions where fluid velocity is relatively high and the turbulence characteristics become important. Furthermore, the results of these high-fidelity simulations will enhance the interpretation of outcomes produced from a lower-fidelity CFD model.

CFD↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Fast Time-Stepping Strategy for Dynamical Systems Equipped with a Surrogate Model

Simulation of complex dynamical systems arising in many applications is computationally challenging due to their size and complexity. Model order reduction, machine learning, and other types of surrogate modeling techniques offer cheaper and simpler ways to describe the dynamics of these systems but are inexact and introduce additional approximation errors. In order to overcome the computational difficulties of the full complex models, on one hand, and the limitations of surrogate models, on the other, this work proposes a new accelerated time-stepping strategy that combines information from both. This approach is based on the multirate infinitesimal general-structure additive Runge--Kutta framework. The inexpensive surrogate model is integrated with a small time step to guide the solution trajectory, and the full model is treated with a large time step to occasionally correct for the surrogate model error and ensure convergence. Here, we provide a theoretical error analysis, and several numerical experiments, to show that this approach can be significantly more efficient than using only the full or only the surrogate model for the integration.

Surrogate models↗

DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainties in Local Intense Precipitation Flood Modeling

In the Task 1 report for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) funded Local Intense Precipitation (LIP) Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment (PFHA) Pilot Study, the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) reviewed hydrologic and hydraulic modeling approaches for estimation of LIP flooding and their implementation in readily available simulation software packages (Prasad and Yuan 2020). NRC’s interest is in developing guidance for performing LIP PFHA at nuclear power plant (NPP) sites. This report describes the work done under Task 2 of the study that focused on describing uncertainties associated with LIP flood modeling. Two main types of uncertainties exist in LIP flood modeling: (1) aleatory uncertainties that arise from the inherent natural variability of the hydrometeorological system and (2) epistemic uncertainties that arise from the analysts’ incomplete knowledge of the hydrometeorological and site configuration. Principal sources for aleatory variability in LIP flood simulations at NPP sites include precipitation (i.e., magnitude, duration, and temporal distribution of LIP events), initial conditions (e.g., soil moisture content, stormwater drainage discharge, surface storage), boundary conditions (e.g., upstream discharge, downstream water surface elevations), and long-term temporal trends (e.g., climate change). This report describes approaches used for estimating the aleatory variability in precipitation including precipitation-frequency analysis, numerical weather prediction, and stochastic weather generation. Data sources that can be used to estimate aleatory variability in initial and boundary conditions are also described. Approaches to include effects of long-term trends like those from climate change into estimation of aleatory variability are summarized. Sources of epistemic uncertainty in LIP flood simulations at NPP sites include process representation (e.g., multiple approaches to represent runoff generation, stormwater drainage, and hydraulic routing), site configurations (e.g., site layout, flow features, status of temporary flood protection, blockage of drains), model resolution, and long-term temporal trends (e.g., known/planned site alterations, land-use changes at and in the vicinity of the site). The report describes alternative process representations (methods and models), particularly those implemented in the LIP flood simulation software packages reviewed in Task 1 report, and lists the associated model parameters. Approaches for estimating model parameters when surface and subsurface water exchanges occur are also described.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Advancing our understanding of instabilities in high-energy-density systems through the study of benchmark datasets with advanced modeling tools

Numerous types of pulsed power driven inertial confinement fusion (ICF) and high energy density (HED) systems rely on implosion stability to achieve desired temperatures, pressures, and densities. Sandia National Laboratories Pulsed Power Sciences Center’s main ICF platform, Magnetized Liner Inertial Fusion (MagLIF), suffers from implosion instabilities which limit attainable fuel conditions and can compromise fuel confinement. This Truman Fellowship research primarily focused on computationally exploring (a) methods for improving our understanding of hydrodynamic and magnetohydrodynamic instabilities that form during cylindrical liner implosions, (b) methods for mitigating implosion instabilities, particularly those that degrade performance of MagLIF targets, and (c) novel MagLIF target designs intended to improve target performance primarily via enhanced implosion stability. Several multi-dimensional computational tools were used, including the magnetohydrodynamics code ALEGRA, the radiation-magnetohydrodynamics code HYDRA, and the magnetohydrodynamics code KRAKEN. This research succeeded in executing and analyzing simulations of automagnetizing liner implosions, shockless MagLIF implosions, dynamic screw pinch driven cylindrical liner implosions, and cylindrically convergent HED instability studies. The methods and tools explored and developed in this Truman Fellowship research have been published in several peer-reviewed journal articles and will serve as useful contributions to the fields of pulsed power science and engineering, particularly pertaining to pulsed power ICF and HED science.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Multi-scale models of whole cells: progress and challenges

Whole-cell modeling is “the ultimate goal” of computational systems biology and “a grand challenge for 21st century”. These complex, highly detailed models account for the activity of every molecule in a cell and serve as comprehensive knowledgebases for the modeled system. Their scope and utility far surpass those of other systems models. In fact, whole-cell models (WCMs) are an amalgam of several types of “system” models. The models are simulated using a hybrid modeling method where the appropriate mathematical methods for each biological process are used to simulate their behavior. Given the complexity of the models, the process of developing and curating these models is labor-intensive and to date only a handful of these models have been developed. While whole-cell models provide valuable and novel biological insights, and to date have identified some novel biological phenomena, their most important contribution has been to highlight the discrepancy between available data and observations that are used for the parametrization and validation of complex biological models. Another realization has been that current whole-cell modeling simulators are slow and to run models that mimic more complex (e.g., multi-cellular) biosystems, those need to be executed in an accelerated fashion on high-performance computing platforms. In this manuscript, we review the progress of whole-cell modeling to date and discuss some of the ways that they can be improved.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Revisiting the Supernova Engines in the 3C 397 and W49B Supernova Remnants

The nature of the supernova remnants (SNRs) 3C 397 and W49B has long been a subject of debate, with prior studies offering conflicting interpretations between thermonuclear and core-collapse scenarios. To help settle this debate, we present a systematic, spatially resolved, spectroscopic analysis of both remnants using XMM-Newton. By applying multicomponent thermal models, we derive key physical properties including elemental abundances, ejecta temperatures, ambient densities, and explosion energetics. We compare the inferred metal abundance ratios to a wide range of core-collapse and thermonuclear nucleosynthesis models, including new models whose explosion energies differ from the canonical value of 10 51 erg. We find that the observed Fe/Si and Ca/Si ratios in both SNRs are best matched by certain thermonuclear models. However, no model fully reproduces the complete set of observed abundance patterns. In 3C 397, high Fe enrichment and spatial abundance variations suggest interaction with a dense progenitor environment, and W49B’s composition is overall consistent with a thermonuclear origin; however, both require a low-energy (∼10 50 erg) supernova explosion. We additionally map the Fe Kα line centroid energies and find a spread, with W49B falling within the core-collapse region—highlighting both environmental complexity and the limitations of this diagnostic for supernova classification. Our results highlight the need for caution in relying on any single diagnostic or nucleosynthesis model for supernova typing, underscore the need for improved nucleosynthesis models, and motivate future high-resolution, high-throughput observations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Model: Year-Long Reforecast, Extended Forecast, Coldstart type ICBC, Domain 01

The primary purpose of WFIP2 Model Development Team is to improve existing numerical weather prediction models in a manner that leads to improved wind forecasts in regions of complex terrain. Improvements in the models will come through better understanding of the physics associated with the wind flow in and around the wind plant across a range of temporal and spatial scales, which will be gained through WFIP2’s observational field study and analysis.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Model: Year-Long Reforecast, Extended Forecast, Coldstart type ICBC, Domain 02

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Transport model comparison studies of intermediate-energy heavy-ion collisions

Transport models are the main method to obtain physics information on the nuclear equation of state and in-medium properties of particles from low to relativistic-energy heavy-ion collisions. The Transport Model Evaluation Project (TMEP) has been pursued to test the robustness of transport model predictions in reaching consistent conclusions from the same type of physical model. To this end, calculations under controlled conditions of physical input and set-up were performed with various participating codes. These included both calculations of nuclear matter in a box with periodic boundary conditions, which test separately selected ingredients of a transport code, and more realistic calculations of heavy-ion collisions. Over the years, six studies have been performed within this project. In this intermediate review, we summarize and discuss the present status of the project. We also provide condensed descriptions of the 26 participating codes, which contributed to some part of the project. These include the major codes in use today. After a compact description of the underlying transport approaches, we review the main results of the studies completed so far. They show, that in box calculations the differences between the codes can be well understood and a convergence of the results can be reached. These studies also highlight the systematic differences between the two families of transport codes, known under the names of Boltzmann–Uehling–Uhlenbeck (BUU) and Quantum Molecular Dynamics (QMD) type codes. However, when the codes were compared in full heavy-ion collisions using different physical models, as recently for pion production, they still yielded substantially different results. This calls for further comparisons of heavy-ion collisions with controlled models and of box comparisons of important ingredients, like momentum-dependent fields, which are currently underway. Furthermore, our evaluation studies often indicate improved strategies in performing transport simulations and thus can provide guidance to code developers. Results of transport simulations of heavy-ion collisions from a given code will have more significance if the code can be validated against benchmark calculations such as the ones summarized in this review.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Context-aware learning of hierarchies of low-fidelity models for multi-fidelity uncertainty quantification

Multi-fidelity Monte Carlo methods leverage low-fidelity and surrogate models for variance reduction to make tractable uncertainty quantification even when numerically simulating the physical systems of interest with high-fidelity models is computationally expensive. This work proposes a context-aware multi-fidelity Monte Carlo method that optimally balances the costs of training low-fidelity models with the costs of Monte Carlo sampling. It generalizes the previously developed context-aware bi-fidelity Monte Carlo method to hierarchies of multiple models and to more general types of low-fidelity models. When training low-fidelity models, the proposed approach takes into account the context in which the learned low-fidelity models will be used, namely for variance reduction in Monte Carlo estimation, which allows it to find optimal trade-offs between training and sampling to minimize upper bounds of the mean-squared errors of the estimators for given computational budgets. This is in stark contrast to traditional surrogate modeling and model reduction techniques that construct low-fidelity models with the primary goal of approximating well the high-fidelity model outputs and typically ignore the context in which the learned models will be used in upstream tasks. Further, the proposed context-aware multi-fidelity Monte Carlo method applies to hierarchies of a wide range of types of low-fidelity models such as sparse-grid and deep-network models. Numerical experiments with the gyrokinetic simulation code Gene show speedups of up to two orders of magnitude compared to standard estimators when quantifying uncertainties in small-scale fluctuations in confined plasma in fusion reactors. This corresponds to a runtime reduction from 72 days to four hours on one node of the Lonestar6 supercomputer at the Texas Advanced Computing Center.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Fracton models from product codes

We explore a deep connection between fracton order and product codes. In particular, we propose and analyze conditions on classical seed codes which lead to fracton order in the resulting quantum product codes. Depending on the properties of the input codes, product codes can realize either Type-I or Type-II fracton models, in both nonlocal and local constructions. For the nonlocal case, we show that a recently proposed model of lineons on nonlocal graphs can be obtained as a hypergraph product code. Interestingly, constrained mobility in this model arises only from energy barriers associated with the graph. For the local case, we introduce a novel type of classical LDPC code defined on a planar aperiodic tiling. By considering the specific example of the pinwheel tiling, we demonstrate the systematic construction of local Type-I and Type-II fracton models as product codes. Our work establishes product codes as a natural setting for exploring fracton order.

Fractons↗

DOE OSTI2024

Availability of Critical Benchmark Experiments for the Pebble Tanker Transportation Model for Nuclear Criticality Safety Validation of TRISO Pebbles

This study addresses the need for comprehensive investigations into TRi-structural ISOtropic (TRISO) fuel pebble transportation validation. In this work, an exploratory model, the pebble tanker(PT), was developed with the aim of facilitating the validation of nuclear criticality safety calculations in the context of industrial-scale transportation of TRISO fuel. The PT model was designed to investigate the availability and applicability of critical benchmark experiments crucial for assessing the transportation of these pebbles. This work incorporated sensitivity/uncertainty (S/U) similarity studies to quantify the applicability of critical benchmark experiments and to address nuclear data uncertainties in the context of TRISO transportation. Two container models were investigated: one for the Hermes-type pebble and one for the Pebble Bed Modular Reactor (PBMR)–type pebble. The models were simplified, considering fuel, containment, and either water or air, to enable a focus on the underlying physics of applications involving TRISO fuel pebbles using the PT model. A crucial aspect under consideration was the capacity of the transport package to hold pebbles while ensuring subcriticality in the flooded state. An approach in the criticality validation process involves assessing the similarity between systems through an integral index parameter evaluation. This involves calculating a correlation coefficient (referred to as c k ) based on shared nuclear data–induced uncertainty between a benchmark experiment and the application of the PT model. To facilitate this analysis, the SCALE tools, particularly the CSAS6-Shift, TSUNAMI-3D-Shift, and TSUNAMI-IP sequences, were employed for comprehensive studies in neutronics and S/U analysis. Our findings showed that there are sufficient critical experimental benchmarks to perform this validation of the PT model in the most reactive state, i.e. when the tanker is flooded. This paper provides valuable insights into validating a transport package for Generation IV TRISO fuel pebbles.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Pebble Tanker Model for Nuclear Criticality Safety Needs

This report documents a study performed to investigate the requirements for criticality safety benchmark experiments for high-assay, low-enriched uranium (HALEU) fuel in transportation applications. In this work, an exploratory application model, the “Pebble Tanker,” was developed to represent TRISO fuel in a transportation scenario for an analysis of the validation basis in industrial quantities. An aspect of the criticality validation process involves assessing the “similarity” between application and experimental benchmark systems through an integral index parameter evaluation. Here, this includes propagating nuclear data uncertainties and calculating a correlation coefficient (hereinafter referred to as “c k ”) to evaluate the similarity of benchmark experiments compared with the application Pebble Tanker model. Finding sufficient critical benchmark experiments allows for the evaluation of bias and bias uncertainty, thus determining the upper subcritical limit (USL) of the transportation package. A target k eff of ~0.94 was used in this work to establish appropriate modeling conditions, reflecting a reasonable estimate for a USL. Two container models were investigated: one with the Hermes-type pebble and one with the Pebble Bed Modular Reactor (PBMR)–type pebble. The models were simplified, considering only fuel, containment structure, and either water or air. This allows a focus on the underlying physics of applications involving TRISO fuel pebbles using the Pebble Tanker model. A crucial consideration is the transport package's ability to safely hold pebbles while flooded, maintaining subcritical conditions. Tools available in the SCALE 6.3.1 suite—the CSAS6-Shift, TSUNAMI-3D-Shift, and TSUNAMI-IP sequences—were employed for neutronics and sensitivity and uncertainty (S/U) analysis of the Pebble Tanker. Findings demonstrated sufficient available critical experiment benchmarks to perform a validation of the Pebble Tanker in the most reactive state, i.e., when the Tanker is flooded.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Integration of software tools for integrative modeling of biomolecular systems

Integrative modeling computes a model based on varied types of input information, be it from experiments or prior models. Often, a type of input information will be best handled by a specific modeling software package. In such a case, we desire to integrate our integrative modeling software package, Integrative Modeling Platform (IMP), with software specialized to the computational demands of the modeling problem at hand. After several attempts, however, we have concluded that even in collaboration with the software's developers, integration is either impractical or impossible. The reasons for the intractability of integration include software incompatibilities, differing modeling logic, the costs of collaboration, and academic incentives. In the integrative modeling software ecosystem, several large modeling packages exist with often redundant tools. So we reason, therefore, that the other development groups have similarly concluded that the benefit of integration does not justify the cost. As a result, modelers are often restricted to the set of tools within a single software package. The inability to integrate tools from distinct software negatively impacts the quality of the models and the efficiency of the modeling. As the complexity of modeling problems grows, we seek to galvanize developers and modelers to consider the long-term benefit that software interoperability yields. In this article, we formulate a demonstrative set of software standards for implementing a model search using tools from independent software packages and discuss our efforts to integrate IMP and the crystallography suite Phenix within the Bayesian modeling framework.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Predictor-corrector models for lightweight massive machine-type communications in Industry 4.0

Future Industry 4.0 scenarios are characterized by seamless integration between computational and physical processes. To achieve this objective, dense platforms made of small sensing nodes and other resource constraint devices are ubiquitously deployed. All these devices have a limited number of computational resources, just enough to perform the simple operation they are in charge of. The remaining operations are delegated to powerful gateways that manage sensing nodes, but resources are never unlimited, and as more and more devices are deployed on Industry 4.0 platforms, gateways present more problems to handle massive machine-type communications. Although the problems are diverse, those related to security are especially critical. To enable sensing nodes to establish secure communications, several semiconductor companies are currently promoting a new generation of devices based on Physical Unclonable Functions, whose usage grows every year in many real industrial scenarios. Those hardware devices do not consume any computational resource but force the gateway to keep large key-value catalogues for each individual node. In this context, memory usage is not scalable and processing delays increase exponentially with each new node on the platform. In this paper, we address this challenge through predictor-corrector models, representing the key-value catalogues. Models are mathematically complex, but we argue that they consume less computational resources than current approaches. The lightweight models are based on complex functions managed as Laurent series, cubic spline interpolations, and Boolean functions also developed as series. Unknown parameters in these models are predicted, and eventually corrected to calculate the output value for each given key. The initial parameters are based on the Kane Yee formula. An experimental analysis and a performance evaluation are provided in the experimental section, showing that the proposed approach causes a significant reduction in the resource consumption.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗