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At least 289 records · Page 16

Type Ia supernovae: Pulsating delayed detonation models, IR light curves, and the formation of molecules

We computed optical and infrared light curves of the pulsating class of delayed detonation models for Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia). It is demonstrated that observations of the IR light curves can be used to identify subluminous SNe Ia by testing whether secondary maxima occur in the IR. Our pulsating delayed detonation models are in agreement with current observations both for subluminous and normal bright SN Ia, namely SN1991bg, SN1992bo, and SN1992bc. Observations of molecular bands provide a test to distinguish whether strongly subluminous supernovae are a consequence of the pulsating mechanism occurring in a high-mass white dwarf (WD) or, alternatively, are formed by the helium detonation in a low-mass WD as was suggested by Woosley. In the latter case, no carbon is left after the explosion of low-mass WDs whereas a log of C/O-rich material is present in pulsating delayed detonation models.

Hoflich, Peter↗

Empirical convection models for northward IMF

It is clear that polar cap convection during times of northward Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) is more structured and of lower mean speed than at times of southward IMF. This, coupled with the fact that the polar cap is smaller, means that empirical models are more difficult to construct with certainty. It is also clear that sunward flow deep in the polar cap is often observed, but its connection with the rest of the flow pattern is controversial. At present, empirical models are of three types: 'statistical' models wherein data from different days but with similar IMF conditions are averaged together; 'pattern recognition' models, which are built up by examining individually hundreds of passes to derive a 'typical' pattern which embodies features frequently observed; and 'assimilative' models, which use data of different types and from as many locations as possible, but all taken at the same time, in order to derive a snapshot (or series of snapshots) of the entire pattern. Each type of model has its own difficulties. Statistical models, by their very nature, smooth out flow features (e.g. the convection reversal, and the locus of sunward flow deep in the polar cap) which are not found at precisely the same invariant latitudes and magnetic local times on different days. Pattern recognition models are better at reproducing small-scale features, but the large-scale pattern can be a matter of interpretation. Assimilative models (such as AMIE) hold out the best hope for creating instantaneous, global convection patterns; however, the analysis technique tends to be most irregular (and least reliable) in the regions which are not well covered by in situ data. It appears that, at least at times, a four cell model with sunward flow at the highest and lowest latitudes, and antisunward flow in between, is consistent with the observations. At other times, the observations may be consistent with a two-cell convection pattern, but which includes significant meanders within the polar cap.

Moses, Julie J.↗

Model interpretation of type III radio burst characteristics. I - Spatial aspects

The ways that the finite size of the source region and directivity of the emitted radiation modify the observed characteristics of type III radio bursts as they propagate through the interplanetary medium are investigated. A simple model that simulates the radio source region is developed to provide insight into the spatial behavior of the parameters that characterize radio bursts. The model is used to demonstrate that observed radio azimuths are systematically displaced from the geometric centroid of the exciter electron beam in such a way as to cause trajectories of the radio bursts to track back to the observer at low frequencies, rather than to follow expected Archimedean spiral-like paths. The source region model is used to investigate the spatial behavior of the peak intensities of radio bursts, and it is found that the model can qualitatively account for both the frequency dependence and the east-west asymmetry of the observed peak flux densities.

Reiner, M. J.↗

The aerodynamic and acoustic characteristics of an over-the-wing target-type thrust reverser model

A static test of a large-scale, over-the-wing (OTW) powered-lift model was performed. The OTW propulsion system had been modified to incorporate a simple target-type thrust reverser as well as the normal rectangular OTW exhaust nozzle. Tests were performed in both the reverse thrust and approach configurations. The thrust reverser noise created by jet turbulence mixing and the OTW approach noise were both low frequency and broadband. When scaled to a 45,400-kg (100,000-lb) aircraft, the thrust reverser and approach configurations produced peak 152-m (500-ft) sideline perceived noise levels of 110 and 105 PNdB, respectively. The aerodynamic performance of the model showed that 50% or greater reverser effectiveness can be achieved without experiencing ingestion of exhaust gas or ground debris into the engine inlets.

Falarski, M. D.↗

Exploring Impacts to COVID-19 Herd Immunity Thresholds Under Demographic Heterogeneity that Lowers Vaccine Effectiveness

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused severe health, economic, and societal impacts across the globe. Although highly efficacious vaccines were developed at an unprecedented rate, the heterogeneity in vaccinated populations has reduced the ability to achieve herd immunity. Specifically, as of Spring 2022, the 0–4 year-old population is still unable to be vaccinated and vaccination rates across 5-11 year olds are low. Additionally, vaccine hesitancy for older populations has further stalled efforts to reach herd immunity thresholds. This heterogeneous vaccine landscape increases the challenge of anticipating disease spread in a population. We developed an age-structured Susceptible-InfectiousRecovered-type mathematical model to investigate the impacts of unvaccinated subpopulations on herd immunity. The model considers two types of undervaccination - age-related and behaviorrelated - by incorporating four age groups based on available FDA-approved vaccines. The model accounts for two different types of vaccines, mRNA (e.g., Pfizer, Moderna) and vector (e.g., Johnson and Johnson), as well as their effectiveness. Our goal is to analyze different scenarios to quantify which subpopulations and vaccine characteristics (e.g., rate or efficacy) most impact infection levels in the United States, using the state of New Mexico as an example.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Component-wise reduced order model lattice-type structure design

Lattice-type structures can provide a combination of stiffness with light weight that is desirable in a variety of applications. Design optimization of these structures must rely on approximations of the governing physics to render solution of a mathematical model feasible. In this paper, we propose a topology optimization (TO) formulation that approximates the governing physics using component-wise reduced order modeling as introduced in Huynh et al. (2013); Eftang and Patera (2013), which can reduce solution time by multiple orders of magnitude over a full-order finite element model while providing a relative error in the solution of 1%. In addition, the offline training data set from such component-wise models is reusable, allowing its application to many design problems for only the cost of a single offline training phase, and the component-wise method is nearly embarrassingly parallel. We also show how the parameterization chosen in our optimization allows a simplification of the component-wise reduced order model (CWROM) not noted in previous literature, for further speedup of the optimization process. Furthermore, the sensitivity of the compliance with respect to the particular parameterization is derived solely at the component level. In numerical examples, we demonstrate a 1000x speedup over a full-order FEM model with relative error of 1% and show minimum compliance designs for two different cantilever beam examples, one smaller and one larger. Finally, error bounds for the displacement field, compliance, and compliance sensitivity of the CWROM are derived.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Evaluation of Thompson-type trend and monthly weather data models for corn yields in Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana

An evaluation was made of Thompson-Type models which use trend terms (as a surrogate for technology), meteorological variables based on monthly average temperature, and total precipitation to forecast and estimate corn yields in Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana. Pooled and unpooled Thompson-type models were compared. Neither was found to be consistently superior to the other. Yield reliability indicators show that the models are of limited use for large area yield estimation. The models are objective and consistent with scientific knowledge. Timely yield forecasts and estimates can be made during the growing season by using normals or long range weather forecasts. The models are not costly to operate and are easy to use and understand. The model standard errors of prediction do not provide a useful current measure of modeled yield reliability.

French, V.↗

Spaceborne Remote Sensing of Aerosol Type: Global Distribution, Model Evaluation and Translation into Chemical Speciation

It is essential to evaluate and refine aerosol classification methods applied to passive satellite remote sensing. We have developed an aerosol classification algorithm (called Specified Clustering and Mahalanobis Classification, SCMC) that assigns an aerosol type to multi-parameter retrievals by spaceborne, airborne or ground-based passive remote sensing instruments [1]. The aerosol types identified by our scheme are pure dust, polluted dust, urban-industrialdeveloped economy, urban-industrialdeveloping economy, dark biomass smoke, light biomass smoke and pure marine. We apply the SCMC method to inversions from the ground-based AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET [2]) and retrievals from the space-borne Polarization and Directionality of Earths Reflectances instrument (POLDER, [3]). The POLDER retrievals that we use differ from the standard POLDER retrievals [4] as they make full use of multi-angle, multispectral polarimetric data [5]. We analyze agreement in the aerosol types inferred from both AERONET and POLDER and evaluate GEOS-Chem [6] simulations over the globe. Finally, we use in-situ observations from the SEAC4RS airborne field experiment to bridge the gap between remote sensing-inferred qualitative SCMC aerosol types and their corresponding quantitative chemical speciation. We apply the SCMC method to airborne in-situ observations from the NASA Langley Aerosol Research Group Experiment (LARGE, [7]) and the Differential Aerosol Sizing and Hygroscopicity Spectrometer Probe (DASH-SP, [8]) instruments; we then relate each coarsely defined SCMC type to a sum of percentage of individual aerosol species, using in-situ observations from the Particle Analysis by Laser Mass Spectrometry (PALMS, [9]), the Soluble Acidic Gases and Aerosol (SAGA, [10]), and the High - Resolution Time - of - Flight Aerosol Mass Spectrometer (HR ToF AMS, [11]).

airborne↗

A 'type one' servo explicit model following adaptive scheme.

This paper describes 'type 1' servo techniques applied to explicit model following systems. The advantages of using these are: (1) steady-state decoupling is provided for the controlled state variables as determined by a reference input (the pilot command for example), (2) overall stability of the decoupled adaptive scheme is guaranteed, (3) a zero steady-state error for those state variables incorporating integral feedback, to a constant input reference, and (4) improved transient performance. Example calculations have been performed using a mathematical model for a typical fighter aircraft and a desired performance reference model based on satisfactory aircraft flying qualities. Numerical results are given.

Tiroshi, I.↗

Clouds and Convective Self-Aggregation in a Multi-Model Ensemble of Radiative-Convective Equilibrium Simulations

The Radiative-Convective Equilibrium Model Intercomparison Project (RCEMIP) is an intercomparison of multiple types of numerical models configured in radiative-convective56equilibrium (RCE). RCE is an idealization of the tropical atmosphere that has long been used to study basic questions in climate science. Here, we employ RCE to investigate the role that clouds and convective activity play in determining cloud feedbacks, climatecsensitivity, the state of convective aggregation, and the equilibrium climate. RCEMIP is unique amongst intercomparisons in its inclusion of a wide range of model types, including atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs), single column models (SCMs), cloud-resolving models (CRMs), large eddy simulations (LES), and global cloud-resolving models (GCRMs). The first results are presented from the RCEMIP ensemble of more than 30 models. While there are large differences across the RCEMIP ensemble in the representation of mean profiles of temperature, humidity, and cloudiness, in a majority of models anvil clouds rise, warm, and decrease in area coverage in response to an increase in sea surface temperature (SST). Nearly all models exhibit self-aggregation in large domains and agree that self-aggregation acts to dry and warm the troposphere, reduce high cloudiness, and increase cooling to space. The degree of self-aggregation exhibits no clear tendency with warming. There is a wide range of climate sensitivities, but models with parameterized convection tend to have lower climate sensitivities than models with explicit convection. In models with parameterized convection, aggregated simulations have lower climate sensitivities than un-aggregated simulations. Plain Language Summary This study investigates tropical clouds and climate using results from more than 30 different numerical models set up in a simplified framework. The dataset of model simulations is unique in that it includes a wide range of model types configured in a consistent manner. We address some of the biggest open questions in climate science, including how cloud properties change with warming and the role that the tendency of clouds to form clusters plays in determining the average climate and how climate changes. While there are large differences in how the different models simulate average temperature, humidity, and cloudiness, in a majority of models, the amount of high clouds decreases as climate warms. Nearly all models simulate a tendency for clouds to cluster together. There is agreement that when the clouds are clustered, the atmosphere is drier with fewer clouds overall. We don’t find a conclusive result for how cloud clustering changes as the climate warms.

Allison A. Wing↗

UAS remote sensing (DJI Phantom 4 RTK platform): RGB orthomosaic, digital surface and canopy height models, plant functional type map, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, 2019

Airborne remote sensing data collected using a DJI Phantom 4 RTK unoccupied aerial system (UAS) ? operated by the University of Maine Wheatland Geospatial Lab (https://wheatlandlab.org/). This package includes data from 17 flights flown over the NGEE-Arctic Council, Kougarok, Kougarok Mile80, Teller, and Teller Mile32 sites in July 2019. The Phantom 4 RTK is a drone platform that collects very high spatial resolution optical red/green/blue (RGB) imagery. Derived image products include point cloud, ortho-mosaiced RGB, a digital surface model (DSM) using the structure from motion (SfM) technique, and a canopy height model (CHM). Unprocessed and processed data products (1,000+ files) are included in this package (processing levels 0-3). Data and metadata are provided as text (*.txt, *.json, *hdr,), ENVI image file (*.dat), point cloud (*.laz) and image (*.jpg, *.tif, *png) formats. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Estimation of longitudinal aircraft characteristics using parameter identification techniques

This study compares the results from different parameter identification methods used to determine longitudinal aircraft characteristics from flight data. In general, these comparisons have found that the estimated short-period dynamics (natural frequency, damping, transfer functions) are only weakly affected by the type of identification method, however, the estimated aerodynamic coefficients may be strongly affected by the type of identification method. The estimated values for aerodynamic coefficients were found to depend upon the type of math model and type of test data used with each of the identification methods. The use of fairly complete math models and the use of long data lengths, combining both steady and nonsteady motion, are shown to provide aerodynamic coefficient values that compare favorably with the results from other testing methods such as steady-state flight and full-scale wind-tunnel experiments.

Wingrove, R. C.↗

Measurements and modeling of type-I and type-II ELMs heat flux to the DIII-D divertor

Type-I and type-II edge-localized-modes (ELMs) heat flux profiles measured at the DIII-D divertor feature a peak in the vicinity of the strike-point and a plateau in the scrape-off-layer (SOL), which extends to the first wall. The plateau is present in attached and detached divertors and it is found to originate with plasma bursts upstream in the SOL. The integrated ELM heat flux is distributed at ~65% in the peak and ~35% in this plateau. The parallel loss model, currently used at ITER to predict power loads to the walls, is benchmarked using these results in the primary and secondary divertors with unprecedented constraints using experimental input data for ELM size, radial velocity, energy, electron temperature and density, heat flux footprints and number of filaments. The model can reproduce the experimental near-SOL peak within ~20%, but cannot match the SOL plateau. Employing a two-component approach for the ELM radial velocity, as guided by intermittent data, the full radial heat flux profile can be well matched. The ELM-averaged radial velocity at the separatrix, which explains profile widening, increases from ~0.2 km s –1 in attached to ~0.8 km s –1 in detached scenarios, as the ELM filaments' path becomes electrically disconnected from the sheath at the target. The results presented here indicate filaments fragmentation as a possible mechanism for ELM transport to the far-SOL and provide evidence on the beneficial role of detachment to mitigate ELM flux in the divertor far-SOL. However, these findings imply that wall regions far from the strike points in future machines should be designed to withstand significant heat flux, even for small-ELM regimes.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

High‐Resolution National‐Scale Water Modeling Is Enhanced by Multiscale Differentiable Physics‐Informed Machine Learning

Abstract The National Water Model (NWM) is a key tool for flood forecasting, planning, and water management. Key challenges facing the NWM include calibration and parameter regionalization when confronted with big data. We present two novel versions of high‐resolution (∼37 km 2 ) differentiable models (a type of hybrid model): one with implicit, unit‐hydrograph‐style routing and another with explicit Muskingum‐Cunge routing in the river network. The former predicts streamflow at basin outlets whereas the latter presents a discretized product that seamlessly covers rivers in the conterminous United States (CONUS). Both versions use neural networks to provide a multiscale parameterization and process‐based equations to provide a structural backbone, which were trained simultaneously (“end‐to‐end”) on 2,807 basins across the CONUS and evaluated on 4,997 basins. Both versions show great potential to elevate future NWM performance for extensively calibrated as well as ungauged sites: the median daily Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency of all 4,997 basins is improved to around 0.68 from 0.48 of NWM3.0. As they resolve spatial heterogeneity, both versions greatly improved simulations in the western CONUS and also in the Prairie Pothole Region, a long‐standing modeling challenge. The Muskingum‐Cunge version further improved performance for basins >10,000 km 2 . Overall, our results show how neural‐network‐based parameterizations can improve NWM performance for providing operational flood predictions while maintaining interpretability and multivariate outputs. The modeling system supports the Basic Model Interface (BMI), which allows seamless integration with the next‐generation NWM. We also provide a CONUS‐scale hydrologic data set for further evaluation and use.

Song, Yalan [Civil and Environmental Engineering T↗

Generic two-phase coexistence in a type-2 Schloegl model for autocatalysis on a square lattice: Analysis via heterogeneous master equations

Schloegl's second model (also known as the quadratic contact process) on a square lattice involves spontaneous annihilation of particles at lattice sites at rate p, and their autocatalytic creation at unoccupied sites with n ≥ 2 occupied neighbors at rate k n . Here, kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) simulation reveals that these models exhibit a nonequilibrium discontinuous phase transition with generic two-phase coexistence: the p value for equistability of coexisting populated and vacuum states, p eq (S), depends on the orientation or slope, S, of a planar interface separating those phases. The vacuum state displaces the populated state for p > eq (S), and the opposite applies for p < p eq (S) for 0 < S < ∞. The special “combinatorial” rate choice k n = n(n–1)/12 facilitates an appealing simplification of the exact master equations for the evolution of spatially heterogeneous states in the model, which aids analytic investigation of these equations via hierarchical truncation approximations. Truncation produces coupled sets of lattice differential equations which can describe orientation-dependent interface propagation and equistability. The pair approximation predicts that p eq (max) = p eq (S = 1) = 0.09645 and p eq (min) = p eq (S → ∞) = 0.08827, values deviating less than 15% from KMC predictions. In the pair approximation, a perfect vertical interface is stationary for all p < p eq (S = ∞) = 0.08907, a value exceeding p eq (S → ∞). One can regard an interface for large S → ∞ as a vertical interface decorated with isolated kinks. For p < p eq (S = ∞), the kink can move in either direction along this otherwise stationary interface depending upon p, but for p = p eq (min) the kink is also stationary.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗