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At least 289 records · Page 16

The Distribution of Cosmic-Ray Sources in the Galaxy, Gamma-Rays and the Gradient in the CO-to-H2 Relation

We present a solution to the apparent discrepancy between the radial gradient in the diffuse Galactic gamma-ray emissivity and the distribution of supernova remnants, believed to be the sources of cosmic rays. Recent determinations of the pulsar distribution have made the discrepancy even more apparent. The problem is shown to be plausibly solved by a variation in the Wco-to-N(H2) scaling factor. If this factor increases by a factor of 5-10 from the inner to the outer Galaxy, as expected from the Galactic metallicity gradient and supported by other evidence, we show that the source distribution required to match the radial gradient of gamma-rays can be reconciled with the distribution of supernova remnants as traced by current studies of pulsars. The resulting model fits the EGRET gamma-ray profiles extremely well in longitude, and reproduces the mid-latitude inner Galaxy intensities better than previous models.

Strong, A. W.↗

Panchromatic Imaging of a Transitional Disk: The Disk of GM AUR in Optical and FUV Scattered Light

We have imaged GM Aurigae with the Hubble Space Telescope, detected its disk in scattered light at 1400 and 1650 A, and compared these with observations at 3300 A, 5550 A, 1.1 micron, and 1.6 micron. The scattered light increases at shorter wavelengths. The radial surface brightness profile at 3300 A shows no evidence of the 24 au radius cavity that has been previously observed in submillimeter observations. Comparison with dust grain opacity models indicates that the surface of the entire disk is populated with submicron grains. We have compiled a spectral energy distribution from 0.1 micron to 1 mm and used it to constrain a model of the star + disk system that includes the submillimeter cavity using the Monte Carlo radiative transfer code by Barbara Whitney. The best-fit model image indicates that the cavity should be detectable in the F330W bandpass if the cavity has been cleared of both large and small dust grains, but we do not detect it. The lack of an observed cavity can be explained by the presence of submicron grains interior to the submillimeter cavity wall. We suggest one explanation for this that could be due to a planet of mass less than 9M(sub J) interior to 24 au. A unique cylindrical structure is detected in the far- UV data from the Advanced Camera for Surveys/Solar Blind Channel. It is aligned along the system semiminor axis, but does not resemble an accretion-driven jet. The structure is limb brightened and extends 190 +/- 35 au above the disk midplane. The inner radius of the limb brightening is 40 +/- 10 au, just beyond the submillimeter cavity wall.

circumstellar matter aEuro" protoplanetary disks a↗

Shot model parameters for Cygnus X-1 through phase portrait fitting

Shot models for systems having about 1/f power density spectrum are developed by utilizing a distribution of shot durations. Parameters of the distribution are determined by fitting the power spectrum either with analytic forms for the spectrum of a shot model with a given shot profile, or with the spectrum derived from numerical realizations of trial shot models. The shot fraction is specified by fitting the phase portrait, which is a plot of intensity at a given time versus intensity at a delayed time and in principle is sensitive to different shot profiles. These techniques have been extensively applied to the X-ray variability of Cygnus X-1, using HEAO 1 A-2 and an Exosat ME observation. The power spectra suggest models having characteristic shot durations lasting from milliseconds to a few seconds, while the phase portrait fits give shot fractions of about 50 percent. Best fits to the portraits are obtained if the amplitude of the shot is a power-law function of the duration of the shot. These fits prefer shots having a symmetric exponential rise and decay. Results are interpreted in terms of a distribution of magnetic flares in the accretion disk.

Lochner, James C.↗

What drives the variance of galaxy spectra?

We present a study aimed at understanding the physical phenomena underlying the formation and evolution of galaxies following a data-driven analysis of spectroscopic data based on the variance in a carefully selected sample. We apply principal component analysis (PCA) independently to three subsets of continuum-subtracted optical spectra, segregated into their nebular emission activity as quiescent, star-forming, and active galactic nuclei (AGNs). We emphasize that the variance of the input data in this work only relates to the absorption lines in the photospheres of the stellar populations. The sample is taken from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) in the stellar velocity dispersion range 100–150 km s −1 , to minimize the ‘blurring’ effect of the stellar motion. We restrict the analysis to the first three principal components (PCs) and find that PCA segregates the three types with the highest variance mapping SSP-equivalent age, along with an inextricable degeneracy with metallicity, even when all three PCs are included. Spectral fitting shows that stellar age dominates PC1, whereas PC2 and PC3 have a mixed dependence of age and metallicity. The trends support – independently of any model fitting – the hypothesis of an evolutionary sequence from star formation to AGN to quiescence. As a further test of the consistency of the analysis, we apply the same methodology in different spectral windows, finding similar trends, but the variance is maximal in the blue wavelength range, roughly around the 4000 Å break.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

X-Ray Polarization of the Magnetar 1E 1841−045

We report on IXPE and NuSTAR observations beginning 40 days after the 2024 outburst onset of magnetar 1E 1841−045, marking the first IXPE observation of a magnetar in an enhanced state. Our spectropolarimetric analysis indicates that both a blackbody (BB) plus double power-law (PL) and a double blackbody plus power-law spectral model fit the phase-averaged intensity data well, with a hard PL tail (Γ = 1.19 and 1.35, respectively) dominating above ≈5 keV. For the former model, we find the soft PL (the dominant component at soft energies) exhibits a polarization degree (PD) of ≈30% while the hard PL displays a PD of ≈40%. Similarly, the cool BB of the 2BB+PL model possesses a PD of ≈15% and a hard PL PD of ≈57%. For both models, each component has a polarization angle (PA) compatible with celestial north. Model-independent polarization analysis supports these results, wherein the PD increases from ≈15% to ≈70% in the 2–3 keV and 6–8 keV ranges, respectively, while the PA remains nearly constant. We find marginal evidence for phase-dependent variability of the polarization properties, namely a higher PD at phases coinciding with the hard X-ray pulse peak. We compare the hard X-ray PL to the expectation from resonant inverse Compton scattering (RICS) and secondary pair cascade synchrotron radiation from primary high-energy RICS photons; both present reasonable spectropolarimetric agreement with the data, albeit the latter does so more naturally. We suggest that the soft PL X-ray component may originate from a Comptonized corona in the inner magnetosphere.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Prompt Emission of GRB 121217A from Gamma-Rays to the Near-Infrared

The mechanism that causes the prompt-emission episode of gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) is still widely debated despite there being thousands of prompt detections. The favoured internal shock model relates this emission to synchrotron radiation. However, it does not always explain the spectral indices of the shape of the spectrum, which is often fit with empirical functions, such as the Band function. Multi-wavelength observations are therefore required to help investigate the possible underlying mechanisms that causes the prompt emission. We present GRB 121217A, for which we were able to observe its near-infrared (NIR) emission during a secondary prompt-emission episode with the Gamma-Ray burst Optical Near-infrared Detector (GROND) in combination with the Swift and Fermi satellites, which cover an energy range of 5 orders of magnitude (10(exp −3) keV to 100 keV). We determine a photometric redshift of z = 3.1 +/- 0.1 with a line-of-sight with little or no extinction (AV approx. 0 mag) utilising the optical/NIR SED. From the afterglow, we determine a bulk Lorentz factor of Gamma(sub 0) approx. 250 and an emission radius of R < 1018 cm. The prompt-emission broadband spectral energy distribution is well fit with a broken power law with beta1 = −0.3 +/- 0.1 and beta2 = 0.6 +/- 0.1 that has a break at E = 6.6 +/- 0.9 keV, which can be interpreted as the maximum injection frequency. Self-absorption by the electron population below energies of Ea < 6 keV suggest a magnetic field strength of B approx. 10(exp 5) G. However, all the best fit models underpredict the flux observed in the NIR wavelengths, which also only rebrightens by a factor of approx. 2 during the second prompt emission episode, in stark contrast to the X-ray emission, which rebrightens by a factor of approx. 100. This suggests an afterglow component is dominating the emission. We present GRB 121217A, one of the few GRBs that has multi-wavelength observations of the prompt-emission period and shows that it can be understood with a synchrotron radiation model. However, due to the complexity of the GRB's emission, other mechanisms that result in Band-like spectra cannot be ruled out.

prompt↗

Gas Modelling in the Disc of HD 163296

We present detailed model fits to observations of the disc around the Herbig Ae star HD 163296. This well-studied object has an age of approx. 4Myr, with evidence of a circumstellar disc extending out to approx. 540AU. We use the radiation thermo-chemical disc code ProDiMo to model the gas and dust in the circumstellar disc of HD 163296, and attempt to determine the disc properties by fitting to observational line and continuum data. These include new Herschel/PACS observations obtained as part of the open-time key program GASPS (Gas in Protoplanetary Systems), consisting of a detection of the [Oi] 63 m line and upper limits for several other far infrared lines. We complement this with continuum data and ground-based observations of the CO-12 3-2, 2-1 and CO-13 J=1-0 line transitions, as well as the H2 S(1) transition. We explore the effects of stellar ultraviolet variability and dust settling on the line emission, and on the derived disc properties. Our fitting efforts lead to derived gas/dust ratios in the range 9-100, depending on the assumptions made. We note that the line fluxes are sensitive in general to the degree of dust settling in the disc, with an increase in line flux for settled models. This is most pronounced in lines which are formed in the warm gas in the inner disc, but the low excitation molecular lines are also affected. This has serious implications for attempts to derive the disc gas mass from line observations. We derive fractional PAH abundances between 0.007 and 0.04 relative to ISM levels. Using a stellar and UV excess input spectrum based on a detailed analysis of observations, we find that the all observations are consistent with the previously assumed disc geometry

Tilling, I.↗

Response Surface Modeling Using Multivariate Orthogonal Functions

A nonlinear modeling technique was used to characterize response surfaces for non-dimensional longitudinal aerodynamic force and moment coefficients, based on wind tunnel data from a commercial jet transport model. Data were collected using two experimental procedures - one based on modem design of experiments (MDOE), and one using a classical one factor at a time (OFAT) approach. The nonlinear modeling technique used multivariate orthogonal functions generated from the independent variable data as modeling functions in a least squares context to characterize the response surfaces. Model terms were selected automatically using a prediction error metric. Prediction error bounds computed from the modeling data alone were found to be- a good measure of actual prediction error for prediction points within the inference space. Root-mean-square model fit error and prediction error were less than 4 percent of the mean response value in all cases. Efficacy and prediction performance of the response surface models identified from both MDOE and OFAT experiments were investigated.

Morelli, Eugene A.↗

Artificial Neural Network (ANN) Surface Longwave and Shortwave Fluxes Trained on CERES Observations

The Clouds and Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) project provides satellite-based observations of the radiative fluxes and clouds systems. CERES climate quality data products typically take several months of calibration and validation before release to the public. The Fast Longwave and Shortwave Radiative Flux (FLASHFlux) data product was developed to provide key data for the applied sciences and educational users within a week of observation. FLASHFlux achieves this by using simplified calibration, an operational meteorological product from Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO), and its own surface parameterizations model. The CERES FLASHFlux provides two data products: 1) an hourly Level 2 Single Scanner Footprint (SSF) data separately for Terra and NOAA-20 observations, and 2) a daily Level 3 Time Interpolated and Spatially Averaged (TISA) 1o x 1o gridded data that combines Terra and NOAA-20 observations. Currently, FLASHFlux uses the Langley Parameterized Shortwave Algorithm (LPSA) and Langley Parameterized Longwave Algorithm (LPLA) to derive its surface fluxes (Kratz et al., 2010; Gupta et al, 2001). A new Machine Learning (ML) based approach using Artificial Neural Networks to derive Surface Longwave (LW) & Shortwave (SW) fluxes based on training data from the CERES Clouds Radiative Swath (CRS) product is being investigated to replace LPSA and LPLA in the SSF surface flux products. One of the biggest hurdles in training ML model is model fitting. To overcome the problem of overfitting we use feature engineering that helps in finding the important feature and remove features that are irrelevant to the model. In our training we employed the Leave-One-Feature-Out Importance (LOFO) to evaluate the significance of each feature in our training. We intercompare ANN fluxes against surface fluxes produced from the Fu-Liou model in CRS and the LPSA/LPLA in FLASHFlux SSF. Furthermore, we validated ANN derived fluxes to the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN).

P C Sawaengphokhai↗

The X-ray spectra of galaxies. I - Spectral fits of individual galaxies and X-ray colors

The X-ray spectra of normal galaxies is investigated systematically by using the Imaging Proportional Counter (IPC) data in the Einstein data bank. In addition to the standard model fitting technique, X-ray colors are introduced in order to extract spectral information from the fainter X-ray sources. Spectral parameters for 43 galaxies and X-ray colors for 127 galaxies are presented.

Kim, D.-W.↗

Solvation Structure of 237 Np 4+ in a Noncomplexing Environment

Here, the solvation structure of an Np 4+ ion in an aqueous, noncomplexing and nonoxidizing environment of trifluoromethanesulfonic (triflic) acid was investigated with X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) combined with ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) and time-dependent density functional theory (TDDFT) calculations. Np L III -edge X-ray absorption near-edge structure (XANES) and extended X-ray absorption fine structure (EXAFS) data were collected for Np 4+ in 1, 3, and 7 M triflic acid using a laboratory-scale spectrometer and separately at a synchrotron facility, producing data sets in excellent agreement. TDDFT calculations revealed a weak pre-edge feature not previously reported for Np L III -edge XANES. AIMD modeling results showed differences in the hydration shell of the Np 4+ ion at different concentrations of triflic acid; these results are supported by the experiment. EXAFS fit models to the experiment resulted in similar coordination of Np 4+ in noncomplexing aqueous media as reported in the literature for 1 M perchloric acid but, together with calculations, revealed more than one distance between Np and O atoms in 7 M triflic acid. These results imply monodentate coordination with sulfonate groups in 7 M triflic acid and suggest the possibility of proto-neptunyl species in relatively low-concentration Np 4+ acid solutions.

Boglaienko, Daria V. [Pacific Northwest National L↗

Bayesian Spatial Models for Projecting Corn Yields

Climate change is predicted to impact corn yields. Previous studies analyzing these impacts differ in data and modeling approaches and, consequently, corn yield projections. We analyze the impacts of climate change on corn yields using two statistical models with different approaches for dealing with county-level effects. The first model, which is novel to modeling corn yields, uses a computationally efficient spatial basis function approach. We use a Bayesian framework to incorporate both parametric and climate model structural uncertainty. We find that the statistical models have similar predictive abilities, but the spatial basis function model is faster and hence potentially a useful tool for crop yield projections. We also explore how different gridded temperature datasets affect the statistical model fit and performance. Compared to the dataset with only weather station data, we find that the dataset composed of satellite and weather station data results in a model with a magnified relationship between temperature and corn yields. For all statistical models, we observe a relationship between temperature and corn yields that is broadly similar to previous studies. We use downscaled and bias-corrected CMIP5 climate model projections to obtain detrended corn yield projections for 2020–2049 and 2069–2098. In both periods, we project a decrease in the mean corn yield production, reinforcing the findings of other studies. However, the magnitude of the decrease and the associated uncertainties we obtain differ from previous studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling land use and land cover change: using a hindcast to estimate economic parameters in gcamland v2.0

Abstract. Future changes in land use and cover have important implications for agriculture, energy, water use, and climate. Estimates of future land use and land cover differ significantly across economic models as a result of differences in drivers, model structure, and model parameters; however, these models often rely on heuristics to determine model parameters. In this study, we demonstrate a more systematic and empirically based approach to estimating a few key parameters for an economic model of land use and land cover change, gcamland. Specifically, we generate a large set of model parameter perturbations for the selected parameters and run gcamland simulations with these parameter sets over the historical period in the United States to quantify land use and land cover, determine how well the model reproduces observations, and identify parameter combinations that best replicate observations, assuming other model parameters are fixed. We also test alternate methods for forming expectations about uncertain crop yields and prices, including adaptive, perfect, linear, and hybrid approaches. In particular, we estimate parameters for six parameters used in the formation of expectations and three of seven logit exponents for the USA only. We find that an adaptive expectation approach minimizes the error between simulated outputs and observations, with parameters that suggest that for most crops, landowners put a significant weight on previous information. Interestingly, for corn, where ethanol policies have led to a rapid growth in demand, the resulting parameters show that a larger weight is placed on more recent information. We examine the change in model parameters as the metric of model error changes, finding that the measure of model fitness affects the choice of parameter sets. Finally, we discuss how the methodology and results used in this study could be used for other regions or economic models to improve projections of future land use and land cover change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Absolute wind velocities in the lower thermosphere of Venus using infrared heterodyne spectroscopy

NASA's IR Telescope Facility and the McMath Solar Telescope have yielded absolute wind velocities in the Venus thermosphere for December 1985 to March 1987 with sufficient spatial resolution for circulation model discrimination. A qualitative analysis of beam-integrated winds indicates subsolar-to-antisolar circulation in the lower thermosphere; horizontal wind velocity was derived from a two-parameter model wind field of subsolar-antisolar and zonal components. A unique model fit common to all observing periods possessed 120 m/sec subsolar-antisolar and 25 m/sec zonal retrograde components, consistent with the Bougher et al. (1986, 1988) hydrodynamical models for 110 km.

Goldstein, Jeffrey J.↗

Mesospheric Observations and Modeling of the Zeeman Split 233.9 GHz O-18O-16 line

Observations made from Kitt Peak, AZ, of the 233.9 GHz emission line of O-18O-16 in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere are reported. A good model fit to the line is obtained by incorporation of pressure and temperature broadening effects, as well as a Zeeman splitting algorithm that uses a standard geomagnetic field model and a paramagnetic Hamiltonian description of the molecular energy states. These observations are used, along with the well known O-18O-16 mixing ratio, to establish absolute calibration for observations of other chemical species from Kitt Peak. Repeated measurements show no change in this absolute calibration between observation dates. The wide magnetic splitting (+/-1.8 MHz) exhibited by this line with only six Zeeman components provides a unique test of middle atmosphere Zeeman effect model calculations, supporting the use Of 02 lines by microwave atmospheric sounders to measure pressure and temperature.

Sandor, Brad J.↗

Final Report

This grant was made to fund two accepted proposals to observe with the ASCA satellite: (1) Debunking the myth of two-temperature coronae of active stars, and (2) Dynamic coronae of dMe stars. We obtained the requested observations and have now completed two papers that will be published in the Astrophysical Journal. The RS CVn binary star UX Ari was observed for 14 hours with all four detectors onboard the ASCA satellite. The X-ray emission was at a constant, quiescent level during the first 12 hours, after which time a powerful flare with a peak luminosity of 1.4 x 10(exp 32) ergs/s started. The flare was observed until shortly after its peak. We present a spectral and temporal analysis of the UX Ari observations and analyze the data with a two-ribbon flare model including estimates for cooling losses. A time-dependent reconstruction of the emission measure (EM) distribution shows that two separate plasma components evolve during the flare (one being identified with the quiescent EM). Most of the flare EM reaches temperatures between 50 MK and 100 MK or more. Magnetic confinement requires the loop arcade to be geometrically large, with length scales on the order of one stellar radius. The electron densities inferred from the model decrease from initial values around 10(exp 12)/cc early in the flare to about 10(exp 11)/cc at the flare peak. The best-fit models require surface magnetic field strengths of a few hundred G, compatible with the maximum photospheric fields expected from equipartition. The flare parameters imply a (conductive and radiative) cooling loss time of less than one hour at flare peak. The elemental abundances increase significantly during the flare rise, with the abundances of the low-FIP elements Fe, Mg, Si, and Ni typically increasing to higher levels than the high-FIP elements such as S or Ne. The Fe abundance increases from (17 +/- 4)% of the solar photospheric value during quiescence up to (89 +/- 18)% at flare peak. A fractionation process that occurs during the chromospheric evaporation phase may selectively enrich low-FIP elements as in the solar corona; alternatively, the chromospheric evaporation may itself bring metal-rich plasma into the metal-poor corona.

Linsky, Jeffrey L.↗

Vertical Distributions of PH3 in Saturn from Observations of Its 1-0 and 3-2 Rotational Lines

Far-infrared Fourier-transform spectrometer measurements of the 1-0 and 3-2 PH3 transitions in Saturn's disk near 267 and 800 GHz (8.9 and 26.7/cm), respectively, were analyzed simultaneously to derive a global mean profile for the PH3 vertical mixing ratio between 100 and 600 mbar total pressure. The far-infrared spectrum is relatively free from spectral interlopers, suffers minimal absorption or scattering by atmospheric particulates, and contains intrinsically weak PH3 lines that are sensitive to a range of atmospheric depths. The combined spectra are inconsistent with a uniform tropospheric mixing ratio, even with a stratospheric cut-off. They are consistent with a volume mixing ratio of PH3 that drops from 1.2 x 10(exp -5) at 645 mbar pressure to a value of 4.1 x 10(exp -7) at 150 mbar pressure, a decrease that is linear is log abundance vs log pressure. The mixing ratio could drop even more quickly at atmospheric pressures below 150 mbar and still be consistent with the data. The mixing ratio may well remain constant with depth for pressures above 630 mbar. The maximum PH3 mixing ratio in this model is consistent with a [P]/[H] ratio in the deep atmosphere that is about a factor of 10 higher than solar composition. Such a model is consistent with rapid mixing up to the radiative-convective boundary and transport by, for example, vertical waves just above this boundary. In the best fitting model, the eddy diffusion coefficient is approximately 10(exp 4) sq cm near 630 mbar, and it must increase with altitude. The predominant PH3 loss mechanisms are direct photolysis by UV radiation and scavenging by H atoms produced by the photolysis.

Orton, G. S.↗

String Fragmentation Model in Space Radiation Problems

String fragmentation models such as the Lund Model fit experimental particle production cross sections very well in the high-energy limit. This paper gives an introduction of the massless relativistic string in the Lund Model and shows how it can be modified with a simple assumption to produce formulas for meson production cross sections for space radiation research. The results of the string model are compared with inclusive pion production data from proton-proton collision experiments.

Tang, Alfred↗