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At least 289 records · Page 16

Patterns and Variability in Global Ocean Chlorophyll: Satellite Observations and Modeling

Recent analyses of SeaWiFS data have shown that global ocean chlorophyll has increased more than 4% since 1998. The North Pacific ocean basin has increased nearly 19%. These trend analyses follow earlier results showing decadal declines in global ocean chlorophyll and primary production. To understand the causes of these changes and trends we have applied the newly developed NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Assimilation Model (OBAM), which is driven in mechanistic fashion by surface winds, sea surface temperature, atmospheric iron deposition, sea ice, and surface irradiance. The model utilizes chlorophyll from SeaWiFS in a daily assimilation. The model has in place many of the climatic variables that can be expected to produce the changes observed in SeaWiFS data. This enables us to diagnose the model performance, the assimilation performance, and possible causes for the increase in chlorophyll. A full discussion of the changes and trends, possible causes, modeling approaches, and data assimilation will be the focus of the seminar.

Gregg, Watson↗

Investigation of the Fe{sup 3+} centers in perovskite KMgF{sub 3} through a combination of ab initio (density functional theory) and semi-empirical (superposition model) calculations

Analyses of the local crystal and electronic structure in the vicinity of Fe{sup 3+} centers in perovskite KMgF{sub 3} crystal have been carried out in a comprehensive manner. A combination of density functional theory (DFT) and a semi-empirical superposition model (SPM) is used for a complete analysis of all Fe{sup 3+} centers in this study for the first time. Some quantitative information has been derived from the DFT calculations on both the electronic structure and the local geometry around Fe{sup 3+} centers. All of the trigonal (K-vacancy case, K-Li substitution case, and normal trigonal Fe{sup 3+} center case), FeF{sub 5}O cluster, and tetragonal (Mg-vacancy and Mg-Li substitution cases) centers have been taken into account based on the previously suggested experimental and theoretical inferences. The collaboration between the experimental data and the results of both DFT and SPM calculations provides us to understand most probable structural model for Fe{sup 3+} centers in KMgF{sub 3}.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Dynamic inflow and unsteady aerodynamics models for modal and stability analyses in OpenFAST

This work presents two aerodynamic models that are used to perform modal and stability analyses of wind turbines. Including aerodynamic effects in stability analyses is important to capture aerodynamic inertia, stiffness, and damping. The two models consist of a dynamic inflow model based on Øye’s model and an unsteady aerodynamics model based on a simplified Beddoes-Leishman dynamic stall model. Both models are written in a continuous-time state-space form, which is the form needed to perform linearizations within OpenFAST. In this article, we present the new models, perform some simple verifications against HAWC2 results, and then perform stability analyses. We investigate the contribution of the aerodynamic effects on the turbine modes, particularly the flapwise modes, which are the most affected. Because of the development presented in this work, Campbell diagrams accounting for dynamic stall and dynamic wake effects were generated for the first time using OpenFAST.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Search for resonance in inclusive and b-tagged dijet mass spectra in proton-proton collision at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV and constraints on dark matter and other models

Two analyses searching for new heavy resonances and interpreting the result with dark matter are presented in this dissertation. The first analysis searches for resonances decaying into dijet final states using the proton-proton collision data at center mass of $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV with the CMS detector at Large Hadron Collider in2016, corresponding to a total integrated luminosity of 36 fb -1 . No significant evidence for the production of new particles is observed. A simplified model of interactions between quarks and dark matter is used to interpret the result. The second analysis searches for resonances decaying into dijet final states using the proton-proton collision data at center mass of $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV with the CMS detector at Large Hadron Collider in 2016, 2017, and 2018, corresponding to a total integrated luminosity of 137.5 fb -1 . A b-tagger named DeepJet is used to examine the events with jets containing B hadrons. No evidence of new heavy resonances is observed, as well. The 95% confidence level cross-section upper limit is set on excited b-quark b* and Coloron models. Limits are also set on a simplified model of interactions between b-quarks and dark matter.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Advanced composite turboprops - Modeling, structural, and dynamic analyses

This paper presents a structural and dynamic analysis of a scaled-down wind tunnel model propfan blade made from fiber composites. This blade is one of a series of propfan blades that have been tested at the NASA Lewis Research Center wind tunnel facilities. The blade is highly swept and twisted and of the spar/shell construction. Due to the complexity of the blade geometry and its high performance, it is subjected to much higher loads and tends to be much less stable than conventional blades. The structural and dynamic analyses of the blade were performed using the NASA-Lewis COBSTRAN computer code. COBSTRAN is designed to generate the mesh and calculate the anisotropic material properties for composite blade analysis. Comparison of analytical and experimental mode shapes and frequencies are shown, verifying the model development and analysis techniques used. The methodologies and programs developed for this analysis are directly applicable to other propfan blades.

Aiello, R. A.↗

A simple object-oriented and open-source model for scientific and policy analyses of the global climate system – Hector v1.0

Simple climate models play an integral role in the policy and scientific communities. They are used for climate mitigation scenarios within integrated assessment models, complex climate model emulation, and uncertainty analyses. Here we describe Hector v1.0, an open source, object-oriented, simple global climate carbon-cycle model. This model runs essentially instantaneously while still representing the most critical global-scale earth system processes. Hector has a three-part main carbon cycle: a one-pool atmosphere, land, and ocean. The model's terrestrial carbon cycle includes primary production and respiration fluxes, accommodating arbitrary geographic divisions into, e.g., ecological biomes or political units. Hector actively solves the inorganic carbon system in the surface ocean, directly calculating air–sea fluxes of carbon and ocean pH. Hector reproduces the global historical trends of atmospheric [CO 2 ], radiative forcing, and surface temperatures. The model simulates all four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) with equivalent rates of change of key variables over time compared to current observations, MAGICC (a well-known simple climate model), and models from the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Hector's flexibility, open-source nature, and modular design will facilitate a broad range of research in various areas.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Aeroelastic stability analyses of two counter rotating propfan designs for a cruise missile model

Aeroelastic stability analyses were performed to insure structural integrity of two counterrotating propfan blade designs for a NAVY/Air Force/NASA cruise missile model wind tunnel test. This analysis predicted if the propfan designs would be flutter free at the operating conditions of the wind tunnel test. Calculated stability results are presented for the two blade designs with rotational speed and Mach number as the parameters. A aeroelastic analysis code ASTROP2 (Aeroelastic Stability and Response of Propulsion Systems - 2 Dimensional Analysis), developed at LeRC, was used in this project. The aeroelastic analysis is a modal method and uses the combination of a finite element structural model and two dimensional steady and unsteady cascade aerodynamic models. This code was developed to analyze single rotation propfans but was modified and applied to counterrotating propfans for the present work. Modifications were made to transform the geometry and rotation of the aft rotor to the same reference frame as the forward rotor, to input a non-uniform inflow into the rotor being analyzed, and to automatically converge to the least stable aeroelastic mode.

Mahajan, Aparajit J.↗

Molecular composition of recycled organic wastes, as determined by solid-state {sup 13}C NMR and elemental analyses

Highlights: • Model estimated the molecular C components well for most RO wastes. • Molecular nature of organic matter in RO wastes varied widely. • Molecular composition by NMR modelling preferable to extraction techniques. • Some model shortcomings in estimating molecular composition of biochars. • Waste molecular composition important for carbon/nutrient outcomes in soil. - Abstract: Using solid state {sup 13}C NMR data and elemental composition in a molecular mixing model, we estimated the molecular components of the organic matter in 16 recycled organic (RO) wastes representative of the major materials generated in the Sydney basin area. Close correspondence was found between the measured NMR signal intensities and those predicted by the model for all RO wastes except for poultry manure char. Molecular nature of the organic matter differed widely between the RO wastes. As a proportion of organic C, carbohydrate C ranged from 0.07 to 0.63, protein C from <0.01 to 0.66, lignin C from <0.01 to 0.31, aliphatic C from 0.09 to 0.73, carbonyl C from 0.02 to 0.23, and char C from 0 to 0.45. This method is considered preferable to techniques involving imprecise extraction methods for RO wastes. Molecular composition data has great potential as a predictor of RO waste soil carbon and nutrient outcomes.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

External Peer Review Team Report Underground Testing Area Subproject for Frenchman Flat, Revision 1

An external peer review was conducted to review the groundwater models used in the corrective action investigation stage of the Underground Test Area (UGTA) subproject to forecast zones of potential contamination in 1,000 years for the Frenchman Flat area. The goal of the external peer review was to provide technical evaluation of the studies and to assist in assessing the readiness of the UGTA subproject to progress to monitoring activities for further model evaluation. The external peer review team consisted of six independent technical experts with expertise in geology, hydrogeology,'''groundwater modeling, and radiochemistry. The peer review team was tasked with addressing the following questions: 1. Are the modeling approaches, assumptions, and model results for Frenchman Flat consistent with the use of modeling studies as a decision tool for resolution of environmental and regulatory requirements? 2. Do the modeling results adequately account for uncertainty in models of flow and transport in the Frenchman Flat hydrological setting? a. Are the models of sufficient scale/resolution to adequately predict contaminant transport in the Frenchman Flat setting? b. Have all key processes been included in the model? c. Are the methods used to forecast contaminant boundaries from the transport modeling studies reasonable and appropriate? d. Are the assessments of uncertainty technically sound and consistent with state-of-the-art approaches currently used in the hydrological sciences? 3. Are the datasets and modeling results adequate for a transition to Corrective Action Unit monitoring studies—the next stage in the UGTA strategy for Frenchman Flat? The peer review team is of the opinion that, with some limitations, the modeling approaches, assumptions, and model results are consistent with the use of modeling studies for resolution of environmental and regulatory requirements. The peer review team further finds that the modeling studies have accounted for uncertainty in models of flow and transport in the Frenchman Flat except for a few deficiencies described in the report. Finally, the peer review team concludes that the UGTA subproject has explored a wide range of variations in assumptions, methods, and data, and should proceed to the next stage with an emphasis on monitoring studies. The corrective action strategy, as described in the Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order, states that the groundwater flow and transport models for each corrective action unit will consider, at a minimum, the following: • Alternative hydrostratigraphic framework models of the modeling domain. • Uncertainty in the radiological and hydrological source terms. • Alternative models of recharge. • Alternative boundary conditions and groundwater flows. • Multiple permissive sets of calibrated flow models. • Probabilistic simulations of transport using plausible sets of alternative framework and recharge models, and boundary and groundwater flows from calibrated flow models. • Ensembles of forecasts of contaminant boundaries. • Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses of model outputs. The peer review team finds that these minimum requirements have been met. While the groundwater modeling and uncertainty analyses have been quite detailed, the peer review team has identified several modeling-related issues that should be addressed in the next phase of the corrective action activities: • Evaluating and using water-level gradients from the pilot wells at the Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Site in model calibration. • Re-evaluating the use of geochemical age-dating data to constrain model calibrations. • Developing water budgets for the alluvial and upper volcanic aquifer systems in Frenchman Flat. • Considering modeling approaches in which calculated groundwater flow directions near the water table are not predetermined by model boundary conditions and areas of recharge, all of which are very uncertain. • Evaluating local-scale variations in hydraulic conductivity on the calculated contaminant boundaries. • Evaluating the effects of non-steady-state flow conditions on calculated contaminant boundaries, including the effects of long-term declines in water levels, climatic change, and disruption of groundwater system by potential earthquake faulting along either of the two major controlling fault zones in the flow system (the Cane Spring and Rock Valley faults). • Considering the use of less-complex modeling approaches. • Evaluating the large change in water levels in the vicinity of the Frenchman Flat playa and developing a conceptual model to explain these water-level changes. • Developing a long-term groundwater level monitoring program for Frenchman Flat with regular monitoring of water levels at key monitoring wells. Despite these reservations, the peer review team strongly believes that the UGTA subproject should proceed to the next stage.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

SU-E-J-85: Leave-One-Out Perturbation (LOOP) Fitting Algorithm for Absolute Dose Film Calibration

Purpose: To introduce an outliers-recognition fitting routine for film dosimetry. It cannot only be flexible with any linear and non-linear regression but also can provide information for the minimal number of sampling points, critical sampling distributions and evaluating analytical functions for absolute film-dose calibration. Methods: The technique, leave-one-out (LOO) cross validation, is often used for statistical analyses on model performance. We used LOO analyses with perturbed bootstrap fitting called leave-one-out perturbation (LOOP) for film-dose calibration . Given a threshold, the LOO process detects unfit points (“outliers”) compared to other cohorts, and a bootstrap fitting process follows to seek any possibilities of using perturbations for further improvement. After that outliers were reconfirmed by a traditional t-test statistics and eliminated, then another LOOP feedback resulted in the final. An over-sampled film-dose- calibration dataset was collected as a reference (dose range: 0-800cGy), and various simulated conditions for outliers and sampling distributions were derived from the reference. Comparisons over the various conditions were made, and the performance of fitting functions, polynomial and rational functions, were evaluated. Results: (1) LOOP can prove its sensitive outlier-recognition by its statistical correlation to an exceptional better goodness-of-fit as outliers being left-out. (2) With sufficient statistical information, the LOOP can correct outliers under some low-sampling conditions that other “robust fits”, e.g. Least Absolute Residuals, cannot. (3) Complete cross-validated analyses of LOOP indicate that the function of rational type demonstrates a much superior performance compared to the polynomial. Even with 5 data points including one outlier, using LOOP with rational function can restore more than a 95% value back to its reference values, while the polynomial fitting completely failed under the same conditions. Conclusion: LOOP can cooperate with any fitting routine functioning as a “robust fit”. In addition, it can be set as a benchmark for film-dose calibration fitting performance.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Variable Renewable Energy in Long-Term Planning Models: A Multi-Model Perspective

Long-term capacity expansion models of the U.S. electricity sector have long been used to inform electric sector stakeholders and decision makers. With the recent surge in variable renewable energy (VRE) generators - primarily wind and solar photovoltaics - the need to appropriately represent VRE generators in these long-term models has increased. VRE generators are especially difficult to represent for a variety of reasons, including their variability, uncertainty, and spatial diversity. To assess current best practices, share methods and data, and identify future research needs for VRE representation in capacity expansion models, four capacity expansion modeling teams from the Electric Power Research Institute, the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory conducted two workshops of VRE modeling for national-scale capacity expansion models. The workshops covered a wide range of VRE topics, including transmission and VRE resource data, VRE capacity value, dispatch and operational modeling, distributed generation, and temporal and spatial resolution. The objectives of the workshops were both to better understand these topics and to improve the representation of VRE across the suite of models. Given these goals, each team incorporated model updates and performed additional analyses between the first and second workshops. This report summarizes the analyses and model 'experiments' that were conducted as part of these workshops as well as the various methods for treating VRE among the four modeling teams. The report also reviews the findings and learnings from the two workshops. We emphasize the areas where there is still need for additional research and development on analysis tools to incorporate VRE into long-term planning and decision-making.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Waste Acceptance and Disposal at the Nevada National Security Site

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Field Office (NNSA/NFO) relies on the Performance Assessment (PA) and the PA model of the Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Site (RWMS) at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) to make disposal decisions on waste stream profiles submitted by waste generators. Disposal decisions are made following a formal process called the PA review process. This paper presents the PA review process, which is a part of the NNSA/NFO’s Waste Generator Documentation Approval Process. The review process includes three major steps and employs quantitative tools such as the PA-derived factors and probabilistic inventory and PA models developed in GoldSim. The PA-derived radionuclide action levels for waste characterization and reporting are included in the NNSS Waste Acceptance Criteria. Each year, NNSA/NFO reviews approximately 100 to 150 new or revised waste stream profiles. The PA review group ensures that, with the disposal of approved waste streams, the Area 5 RWMS will remain in compliance with the performance objectives of DOE O 435.1, “Radioactive Waste Management.” Examples of the PA review process are given that demonstrate how waste streams with special characteristics are evaluated and disposal decisions are made. The most rigorous profile evaluation is done with the PA model, run with the proposed profile inventory added and results compared to the PA results. Additional analysis and process-modeling are performed for those waste streams with unique features not addressed with the PA model. The results of these analyses and modeling are documented in special analysis reports, reviewed and approved by NNSA/NFO. The examples include (1) profiles with radionuclides not in the PA, (2) profiles including radionuclides with high radon-generation potential, and (3) profiles with high-heat generating radionuclides.

Yucel, Vefa↗

An Analysis Technique/Automated Tool for Comparing and Tracking Analysis Modes of Different Finite Element Models

An analysis technique was developed to compare and track mode shapes for different Finite Element Models. The technique may be applied to a variety of structural dynamics analyses, including model reduction validation (comparing unreduced and reduced models), mode tracking for various parametric analyses (e.g., launch vehicle model dispersion analysis to identify sensitivities to modal gain for Guidance, Navigation, and Control), comparing models of different mesh fidelity (e.g., a coarse model for a preliminary analysis compared to a higher-fidelity model for a detailed analysis) and mode tracking for a structure with properties that change over time (e.g., a launch vehicle from liftoff through end-of-burn, with propellant being expended during the flight). Mode shapes for different models are compared and tracked using several numerical indicators, including traditional Cross-Orthogonality and Modal Assurance Criteria approaches, as well as numerical indicators obtained by comparing modal strain energy and kinetic energy distributions. This analysis technique has been used to reliably identify correlated mode shapes for complex Finite Element Models that would otherwise be difficult to compare using traditional techniques. This improved approach also utilizes an adaptive mode tracking algorithm that allows for automated tracking when working with complex models and/or comparing a large group of models.

Towner, Robert L.↗

The joint US/UK 1990 epoch world magnetic model

A detailed summary of the data used, analyses performed, modeling techniques employed, and results obtained in the course of the 1990 Epoch World Magnetic Modeling effort are given. Also, use and limitations of the GEOMAG algorithm are presented. Charts and tables related to the 1990 World Magnetic Model (WMM-90) for the Earth's main field and secular variation in Mercator and polar stereographic projections are presented along with useful tables of several magnetic field components and their secular variation on a 5-degree worldwide grid.

Quinn, John M.↗