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At least 289 records · Page 16

A Diffusion‐Based Uncertainty Quantification Method to Advance E3SM Land Model Calibration

Abstract Calibrating land surface models and accurately quantifying their uncertainty are crucial for improving the reliability of simulations of complex environmental processes. This, in turn, advances our predictive understanding of ecosystems and supports climate‐resilient decision‐making. Traditional calibration methods, however, face challenges of high computational costs and difficulties in accurately quantifying parameter uncertainties. To address these issues, we develop a diffusion‐based uncertainty quantification (DBUQ) method. Unlike conventional generative diffusion methods, which are computationally expensive and memory‐intensive, DBUQ innovates by formulating a parameterized generative model and approximates this model through supervised learning, which enables quick generation of parameter posterior samples to quantify its uncertainty. DBUQ is effective, efficient, and general‐purpose, making it suitable for site‐specific ecosystem model calibration and broadly applicable for parameter uncertainty quantification across various earth system models. In this study, we applied DBUQ to calibrate the Energy Exascale Earth System Model land model at the Missouri Ozark AmeriFlux forest site. Results indicated that DBUQ produced accurate parameter posterior distributions similar to those from Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling but with 30 times less computing time. This significant improvement in efficiency suggests that DBUQ can enable rapid, site‐level model calibration at a global scale, enhancing our predictive understanding of climate impacts on terrestrial ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Between Harmonic Crystal and Glass: Solids with Dimpled Potential-Energy Surfaces Having Multiple Local Energy Minima

Solids with dimpled potential-energy surfaces are ubiquitous in nature and, typically, exhibit structural (elastic or phonon) instabilities. Dimpled potentials are not harmonic; thus, the conventional quasiharmonic approximation at finite temperatures fails to describe anharmonic vibrations in such solids. At sufficiently high temperatures, their crystal structure is stabilized by entropy; in this phase, a diffraction pattern of a periodic crystal is combined with vibrational properties of a phonon glass. As temperature is lowered, the solid undergoes a symmetry-breaking transition and transforms into a lower-symmetry phase with lower lattice entropy. Here, we identify specific features in the potential-energy surface that lead to such polymorphic behavior; we establish reliable estimates for the relative energies and temperatures associated with the anharmonic vibrations and the solid–solid symmetry-breaking phase transitions. We show that computational phonon methods can be applied to address anharmonic vibrations in a polymorphic solid at fixed temperature. To illustrate the ubiquity of this class of materials, we present a range of examples (elemental metals, a shape-memory alloy, and a layered charge-density-wave system); we show that our theoretical predictions compare well with known experimental data.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A large-scale comparison of Artificial Intelligence and Data Mining (AI&DM) techniques in simulating reservoir releases over the Upper Colorado Region

In recent years, the Artificial Intelligence and Data Mining (AI&DM) models have become popular tools in assisting various aspects of reservoir operation. However, the practical uses are still rarely reported. Comparison experiment of many AI&DM models over a large number of reservoir cases is particularly valuable to help reservoir operators first examine the usefulness and transferability of different AI&DM models, and then identify the most stable and reliable AI&DM model in assist of various decision-making processes. In this study, a total of 12 AI&DM models with different parameterizations and simulation scenarios are comprehensively tested out and compared in simulating the controlled reservoir outflows of 33 reservoir cases over the Upper Colorado Region, United States. Results show that the Random Forecast and the Long-Short-Term-Memory model could consistently derive the best statistical performance than other models under the baseline simulation scenario. The employed AI&DM models could obtain satisfactory statistical interquartile ranges (25–75%) between [0.6–0.9], [0.3–0.8], and [0.2–0.8], for CORR, NSE, and KGE measurements, respectively, and [1.5–6.5], [–15 to 20], and [0.5–8.5] for the normalized RMSE, PBIAS and RSR measurements, respectively. Results also show Multi-Layer Perceptron model and Extreme Gradient Boosting Tree Algorithm produced more stable and superior performance than other models under more complex input scenarios. We also found that the performance of different AI&DM models are closely relevant to the reservoir elevations, sizes, and functionalities. Discussions were made about the sensitivity of AI&DM models’ parameterizations and the key advantages of AI&DM models over the rule-based reservoir models. We further identify that the main advantage of AI&DM models is the flexibility in designing input structures, whereas the rule-based simulation model is rather limited. Future studies were suggested regarding the best way reservoir operators and researchers could use, select, and apply different AI&DM models in simulating reservoir releases under different natural and modeling environments. Finally, this comparison study also serves as a reference and a piece of groundwork for further promoting the practical uses of AI&DM models in assisting reservoir operation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

C-MOS array design techniques: SUMC multiprocessor system study

The current capabilities of LSI techniques for speed and reliability, plus the possibilities of assembling large configurations of LSI logic and storage elements, have demanded the study of multiprocessors and multiprocessing techniques, problems, and potentialities. Evaluated are three previous systems studies for a space ultrareliable modular computer multiprocessing system, and a new multiprocessing system is proposed that is flexibly configured with up to four central processors, four 1/0 processors, and 16 main memory units, plus auxiliary memory and peripheral devices. This multiprocessor system features a multilevel interrupt, qualified S/360 compatibility for ground-based generation of programs, virtual memory management of a storage hierarchy through 1/0 processors, and multiport access to multiple and shared memory units.

Clapp, W. A.↗

Development of a fault-tolerant microprocessor based computer system for space flight

A methodology for the design of a tightly coupled, highly reliable microprocessor based computer system is described. The concept of triple modular redundancy with sparing is used. The notion of synchronizing by using a single crystal oscillator is examined. The use of decoders to replace voters is also used. The decoders not only isolate the failed module but also allow error identification to be accomplished. Each module is to have its own RAM memory. The necessary circuitry to select a correct memory and the corresponding DMA controller was designed.

Montgomery, V. T.↗

A Practical Comparison of Data-Driven Prognostics Methods for Energy Systems

This study explores data-driven prognostics for nuclear power plant (NPP) condensers, focusing on tube fouling. We utilized the Asherah nuclear power plant simulator (ANS) to compare four methods: Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Regressor (SVR), Fully Connected Neural Network (FCNN), and Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network (LSTM). By simulating various fouling scenarios in the ANS, we generated data with different degradation rates under transient operations. The models were trained and tested on these data, with performance evaluated visually and numerically including uncertainty assessment. The LSTM model excelled, exhibiting minimal prediction noise and the most accurate remaining useful life estimates across all degradation levels. Its ability to capture long-term dependencies and produce cleaner outputs makes it a strong candidate, although accurate training data across the entire component lifespan are crucial. The RF model emerged as a robust alternative, providing reliable predictions with high confidence. The FCNN and SVR models, while less effective overall, showed potential under specific conditions. FCNN offers a less complex alternative to LSTM and might benefit from larger datasets. SVR excels in precision when the quality of the training data is high. Furthermore, this study highlights the operational benefits of advanced prognostics in the energy sector and emphasizes the need for further research in NPP condenser health management through real-life experiments.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Evaluation of wet tantalum capacitors after exposure to extended periods of ripple current, volume 1

The application of tantalum capacitors in the Viking Lander includes both dc voltage and ripple current electrical stress, high temperature during nonoperating times (sterilization), and high vibration and shock loads. The capacitors must survive these severe environments without any degradation if reliable performance is to be achieved. A test program was established to evaluate both wet-slug tantalum and wet-foil capacitors under conditions accurately duplicating actual Viking applications. Test results of the electrical performance characteristics during extended periods of ripple current, the characteristics of the internal silver migration as a function for extended periods of ripple current, and the existence of any memory characteristics are presented.

Watson, G. W.↗

Evaluation of wet tantalum capacitors after exposure to extended periods of ripple current, volume 2

The application of tantalum capacitors in the Viking Lander includes dc voltage and ripple current electrical stress, high temperature during nonoperating times (sterilization), and high vibration and shock loads. The capacitors must survive these severe environments without any degradation if reliable performance is to be achieved. A test program was established to evaluate both wet-slug tantalum and wet-foil capacitors under conditions accurately duplicating actual Viking applications. Test results of the electrical performance characteristics during extended periods of ripple current, the characteristics of the internal silver migration as a function of extended periods of ripple current, and the existence of any memory characteristics are presented.

Ward, C. M.↗

Flight critical system design guidelines and validation methods

Efforts being expended at NASA-Langley to define a validation methodology, techniques for comparing advanced systems concepts, and design guidelines for characterizing fault tolerant digital avionics are described with an emphasis on the capabilities of AIRLAB, an environmentally controlled laboratory. AIRLAB has VAX 11/750 and 11/780 computers with an aggregate of 22 Mb memory and over 650 Mb storage, interconnected at 256 kbaud. An additional computer is programmed to emulate digital devices. Ongoing work is easily accessed at user stations by either chronological or key word indexing. The CARE III program aids in analyzing the capabilities of test systems to recover from faults. An additional code, the semi-Markov unreliability program (SURE) generates upper and lower reliability bounds. The AIRLAB facility is mainly dedicated to research on designs of digital flight-critical systems which must have acceptable reliability before incorporation into aircraft control systems. The digital systems would be too costly to submit to a full battery of flight tests and must be initially examined with the AIRLAB simulation capabilities.

Holt, H. M.↗

A case for Redundant Arrays of Inexpensive Disks (RAID)

Increasing performance of CPUs and memories will be squandered if not matched by a similar performance increase in I/O. While the capacity of Single Large Expensive Disks (SLED) has grown rapidly, the performance improvement of SLED has been modest. Redundant Arrays of Inexpensive Disks (RAID), based on the magnetic disk technology developed for personal computers, offers an attractive alternative to SLED, promising improvements of an order of magnitude in performance, reliability, power consumption, and scalability. This paper introduces five levels of RAIDs, giving their relative cost/performance, and compares RAID to an IBM 3380 and a Fujitsu Super Eagle.

Patterson, David A.↗

Board Level Proton Testing Book of Knowledge for NASA Electronic Parts and Packaging Program

This book of knowledge (BoK) provides a critical review of the benefits and difficulties associated with using proton irradiation as a means of exploring the radiation hardness of commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) systems. This work was developed for the NASA Electronic Parts and Packaging (NEPP) Board Level Testing for the COTS task. The fundamental findings of this BoK are the following. The board-level test method can reduce the worst case estimate for a board's single-event effect (SEE) sensitivity compared to the case of no test data, but only by a factor of ten. The estimated worst case rate of failure for untested boards is about 0.1 SEE/board-day. By employing the use of protons with energies near or above 200 MeV, this rate can be safely reduced to 0.01 SEE/board-day, with only those SEEs with deep charge collection mechanisms rising this high. For general SEEs, such as static random-access memory (SRAM) upsets, single-event transients (SETs), single-event gate ruptures (SEGRs), and similar cases where the relevant charge collection depth is less than 10 μm, the worst case rate for SEE is below 0.001 SEE/board-day. Note that these bounds assume that no SEEs are observed during testing. When SEEs are observed during testing, the board-level test method can establish a reliable event rate in some orbits, though all established rates will be at or above 0.001 SEE/board-day. The board-level test approach we explore has picked up support as a radiation hardness assurance technique over the last twenty years. The approach originally was used to provide a very limited verification of the suitability of low cost assemblies to be used in the very benign environment of the International Space Station (ISS), in limited reliability applications. Recently the method has been gaining popularity as a way to establish a minimum level of SEE performance of systems that require somewhat higher reliability performance than previous applications. This sort of application of the method suggests a critical analysis of the method is in order. This is also of current consideration because the primary facility used for this type of work, the Indiana University Cyclotron Facility (IUCF) (also known as the Integrated Science and Technology (ISAT) hall), has closed permanently, and the future selection of alternate test facilities is critically important. This document reviews the main theoretical work on proton testing of assemblies over the last twenty years. It augments this with review of reported data generated from the method and other data that applies to the limitations of the proton board-level test approach. When protons are incident on a system for test they can produce spallation reactions. From these reactions, secondary particles with linear energy transfers (LETs) significantly higher than the incident protons can be produced. These secondary particles, together with the protons, can simulate a subset of the space environment for particles capable of inducing single event effects (SEEs). The proton board-level test approach has been used to bound SEE rates, establishing a maximum possible SEE rate that a test article may exhibit in space. This bound is not particularly useful in many cases because the bound is quite loose. We discuss the established limit that the proton board-level test approach leaves us with. The remaining possible SEE rates may be as high as one per ten years for most devices. The situation is actually more problematic for many SEE types with deep charge collection. In cases with these SEEs, the limits set by the proton board-level test can be on the order of one per 100 days. Because of the limited nature of the bounds established by proton testing alone, it is possible that tested devices will have actual SEE sensitivity that is very low (e.g., fewer than one event in 1 × 10(exp 4) years), but the test method will only be able to establish the limits indicated above. This BoK further examines other benefits of proton board-level testing besides hardness assurance. The primary alternate use is the injection of errors. Error injection, or fault injection, is something that is often done in a simulation environment. But the proton beam has the benefit of injecting the majority of actual SEEs without risk of something being missed, and without the risk of simulation artifacts misleading the SEE investigation.

Guertin, Steven M.↗

Using parallel banded linear system solvers in generalized eigenvalue problems

Subspace iteration is a reliable and cost effective method for solving positive definite banded symmetric generalized eigenproblems, especially in the case of large scale problems. This paper discusses an algorithm that makes use of two parallel banded solvers in subspace iteration. A shift is introduced to decompose the banded linear systems into relatively independent subsystems and to accelerate the iterations. With this shift, an eigenproblem is mapped efficiently into the memories of a multiprocessor and a high speed-up is obtained for parallel implementations. An optimal shift is a shift that balances total computation and communication costs. Under certain conditions, we show how to estimate an optimal shift analytically using the decay rate for the inverse of a banded matrix, and how to improve this estimate. Computational results on iPSC/2 and iPSC/860 multiprocessors are presented.

Zhang, Hong↗

Using parallel banded linear system solvers in generalized eigenvalue problems

Subspace iteration is a reliable and cost effective method for solving positive definite banded symmetric generalized eigenproblems, especially in the case of large scale problems. This paper discusses an algorithm that makes use of two parallel banded solvers in subspace iteration. A shift is introduced to decompose the banded linear systems into relatively independent subsystems and to accelerate the iterations. With this shift, an eigenproblem is mapped efficiently into the memories of a multiprocessor and a high speedup is obtained for parallel implementations. An optimal shift is a shift that balances total computation and communication costs. Under certain conditions, we show how to estimate an optimal shift analytically using the decay rate for the inverse of a banded matrix, and how to improve this estimate. Computational results on iPSC/2 and iPSC/860 multiprocessors are presented.

DISTRIBUTED MEMORY MULTIPROCES↗

Electronics Shielding and Reliability Design Tools

It is well known that electronics placement in large-scale human-rated systems provides opportunity to optimize electronics shielding through materials choice and geometric arrangement. For example, several hundred single event upsets (SEUs) occur within the Shuttle avionic computers during a typical mission. An order of magnitude larger SEU rate would occur without careful placement in the Shuttle design. These results used basic physics models (linear energy transfer (LET), track structure, Auger recombination) combined with limited SEU cross section measurements allowing accurate evaluation of target fragment contributions to Shuttle avionics memory upsets. Electronics shielding design on human-rated systems provides opportunity to minimize radiation impact on critical and non-critical electronic systems. Implementation of shielding design tools requires adequate methods for evaluation of design layouts, guiding qualification testing, and an adequate follow-up on final design evaluation including results from a systems/device testing program tailored to meet design requirements.

Wilson, John W.↗

A deep learning-based Bayesian framework for high-resolution calibration of building energy models

Calibrating building energy models (BEMs), i.e., closing discrepancy between modeling and field measurements, is of significance to support its applications in building sustainability and resilience analysis. However, as being widely used in practice, current Bayesian calibration is mostly performed in low-resolution (annual or monthly), instead of high-resolution (hourly or sub-hourly), which is crucial to support emerging BEM applications, such as building-renewable energy integration (demand response) and smart control. This is attributable to the gaps in current Bayesian calibration process, including (1) difficulty in supporting reliable high-resolution calibration with over-parameterization and multi-solution issues, (2) inadequacy of meta-model to capture temporal building dynamics in high-resolution, and (3) excessive computational burdens of covariance matrix calculation in Bayesian inference. Therefore, to close these gaps, this research proposes a novel deep learning-based Bayesian calibration framework, involving pre-calibration mechanism, Long Short-Term Memory as surrogate models, and simplified covariance matrix calculation, to calibrate BEMs in high temporal resolution (i.e., hourly) with enhanced accuracy and computational efficiency. Finally, the case study demonstrates its effectiveness to match modeling outcomes with measurements and realize CV-RMSE of < 30 % and NMBE of < 6 % in hourly resolution, as well as a significant reduction of calibration time (by > 99 %, from > 600 h to ~ 1.5 h).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Accelerating error correction in tomographic reconstruction

Abstract Spurred by recent advances in detector technology and X-ray optics, upgrades to scanning-probe-based tomographic imaging have led to an exponential growth in the amount and complexity of experimental data and have created a clear opportunity for tomographic imaging to approach single-atom sensitivity. The improved spatial resolution, however, is highly susceptible to systematic and random experimental errors, such as center of rotation drifts, which may lead to imaging artifacts and prevent reliable data extraction. Here, we present a model-based approach that simultaneously optimizes the reconstructed specimen and sinogram alignment as a single optimization problem for tomographic reconstruction with center of rotation error correction. Our algorithm utilizes an adaptive regularizer that is dynamically adjusted at each alternating iteration step. Furthermore, we describe its implementation in a software package targeting high-throughput workflows for execution on distributed-memory clusters. We demonstrate the performance of our solver on large-scale synthetic problems and show that it is robust to a wide range of noise and experimental drifts with near-ideal throughput.

Ali, Sajid (ORCID:0000000321864636)↗

LSI computer for 1980's space mission

The low power, high reliability, SUMC-III-C computer is one member of the Space Ultrareliable Modular Computer (SUMC) family designed by NASA/MSFC to meet a wide range of missions through modularity in word size, throughput, and reliability. The SUMC-III-C, directed at such missions as the Large Space Telescope and Space Tug, uses custom designed CMOS/SOS LSI arrays with critical computer paths packaged on thick-film hybrids. This technology provides 300 to 600 logic gates per array with a typical stage delay of 3 to 5 nsec. SUMC-III-C is fully S/360 compatible at the user level, and includes virtual memory for the first time in an aerospace computer.

Clapp, W. A.↗

Video-task assessment of learning and memory in Macaques (Macaca mulatta) - Effects of stimulus movement on performance

Effects of stimulus movement on learning, transfer, matching, and short-term memory performance were assessed with 2 monkeys using a video-task paradigm in which the animals responded to computer-generated images by manipulating a joystick. Performance on tests of learning set, transfer index, matching to sample, and delayed matching to sample in the video-task paradigm was comparable to that obtained in previous investigations using the Wisconsin General Testing Apparatus. Additionally, learning, transfer, and matching were reliably and significantly better when the stimuli or discriminanda moved than when the stimuli were stationary. External manipulations such as stimulus movement may increase attention to the demands of a task, which in turn should increase the efficiency of learning. These findings have implications for the investigation of learning in other populations, as well as for the application of the video-task paradigm to comparative study.

Washburn, David A.↗