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At least 289 records · Page 16

Trajectory Dispersed Vehicle Process for Space Launch System

The Space Launch System (SLS) vehicle is part of NASA's deep space exploration plans that includes manned missions to Mars. Manufacturing uncertainties in design parameters are key considerations throughout SLS development as they have significant effects on focus parameters such as lift-off-thrust-to-weight, vehicle payload, maximum dynamic pressure, and compression loads. This presentation discusses how the SLS program captures these uncertainties by utilizing a 3 degree of freedom (DOF) process called Trajectory Dispersed (TD) analysis. This analysis biases nominal trajectories to identify extremes in the design parameters for various potential SLS configurations and missions. This process utilizes a Design of Experiments (DOE) and response surface methodologies (RSM) to statistically sample uncertainties, and develop resulting vehicles using a Maximum Likelihood Estimate (MLE) process for targeting uncertainties bias. These vehicles represent various missions and configurations which are used as key inputs into a variety of analyses in the SLS design process, including 6 DOF dispersions, separation clearances, and engine out failure studies.

Statham, Tamara↗

Neural network ensembles and uncertainty estimation for predictions of inelastic mechanical deformation using a finite element method-neural network approach

The finite element method (FEM) is widely used to simulate a variety of physics phenomena. Approaches that integrate FEM with neural networks (NNs) are typically leveraged as an alternative to conducting expensive FEM simulations in order to reduce the computational cost without significantly sacrificing accuracy. However, these methods can produce biased predictions that deviate from those obtained with FEM, since these hybrid FEM-NN approaches rely on approximations trained using physically relevant quantities. In this work, an uncertainty estimation framework is introduced that leverages ensembles of Bayesian neural networks to produce diverse sets of predictions using a hybrid FEM-NN approach that approximates internal forces on a deforming solid body. The uncertainty estimator developed herein reliably infers upper bounds of bias/variance in the predictions for a wide range of interpolation and extrapolation cases using a three-element FEM-NN model of a bar undergoing plastic deformation. This proposed framework offers a powerful tool for assessing the reliability of physics-based surrogate models by establishing uncertainty estimates for predictions spanning a wide range of possible load cases.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Intelligent multi-zone residential HVAC control strategy based on deep reinforcement learning

Residential heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) has been considered as an important demand response resource. However, the optimization of residential HVAC control is no trivial task due to the complexity of the thermal dynamic models of buildings and uncertainty associated with both occupant-driven heat loads and weather forecasts. In this paper, we apply a novel model-free deep reinforcement learning (RL) method, known as the deep deterministic policy gradient (DDPG), to generate an optimal control strategy for a multi-zone residential HVAC system with the goal of minimizing energy consumption cost while maintaining the users’ comfort. Here, the applied deep RL-based method learns through continuous interaction with a simulated building environment and without referring to any prior model knowledge. Simulation results show that compared with the state-of-art deep Q network (DQN), the DDPG-based HVAC control strategy can reduce the energy consumption cost by 15% and reduce the comfort violation by 79%; and when compared with a rule-based HVAC control strategy, the comfort violation can be reduced by 98%. In addition, experiments with different building models and retail price models demonstrate that the well-trained DDPG-based HVAC control strategy has high generalization and adaptability to unseen environments, which indicates its practicability for real-world implementation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Modeled sensitivity of multi-MA accelerator performance to electrode contaminant inventory

Significant particle-in-cell code development has enabled simulations of power flow in multi-MA accelerators to include the desorption of surface contaminants, their ionization into surface plasmas, and the impact of these plasmas on efficiency. The simulations base desorption on an Arrhenius equation, whose most significant unknown is the surface contaminant inventory. The sensitivity of power-flow simulations to this inventory is studied here using Sandia National Laboratories' Z accelerator with a 7-nH MagLIF load [Phys. Plasmas 17, 056303 (2010)]. Simulations are conducted in 3D cylindrical coordinates for the current-adder, or “convolute,” region of Z and in 2D for the final feed only. Simulated contaminant inventories are varied from 1 to 32 monolayers (MLs) in 2D, and 2 to 4 ML in 3D. The results reveal sensitivities to the local ratio of E/B⁠. The high B-field, low E-field region near the short-circuit load is insensitive to the contaminant inventory, where assumed values of 4–32 ML change the load current by ≤ 2%, and agree with experiment to within 2% at peak current. A 1-ML value is the outlier, increasing the load current by 5%, but still within measurement uncertainty. In contrast, the relatively higher E-field, lower B-field convolute region has slower contaminant desorption and higher-magnitude E-field penetration of the surface plasmas. The current loss in the convolute region does increase with contaminant inventory. The loss assuming 4 ML is 12% larger than for 2 ML, with 4 ML being the better match to experiment.

Arrhenius equation↗

Thermal Overloading Risk Mitigation With a Semi-Analytical Probabilistic Model on Branch Current

A semi-analytical formulation is presented in this paper for the probability computation of branch current in multiphase systems. The developed formula is derived based on the linear power flow model in rectangular coordinates. The system uncertainty injections can be renewable energy resources or loads and are modeled using a Gaussian mixture model (GMM). The developed formula can be used to compute the line current violation probability as well as integrate into optimal power flow problem as chance-constraint relaxation. Here, the proposed formula is first compared with the Matlab embedded numerical integration function to show its performance. Besides, the semi-analytical formula is validated and compared with the Monte Carlo simulation method using the IEEE 123-bus system, EPRI Ckt5, and Ckt7 systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Probabilistic structural analysis of a truss typical for space station

A three-bay, space, cantilever truss is probabilistically evaluated using the computer code NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress) to identify and quantify the uncertainties and respective sensitivities associated with corresponding uncertainties in the primitive variables (structural, material, and loads parameters) that defines the truss. The distribution of each of these primitive variables is described in terms of one of several available distributions such as the Weibull, exponential, normal, log-normal, etc. The cumulative distribution function (CDF's) for the response functions considered and sensitivities associated with the primitive variables for given response are investigated. These sensitivities help in determining the dominating primitive variables for that response.

Pai, Shantaram S.↗

Airborne Sunphotometer and Solar Spectral Flux Radiometer Measurements During INTEX/ITCT 2004

During the period 12 July - 8 August 2004, the NASA Ames 14-channel Airborne Tracking Sunphotometer (MTS-14) and Solar Spectral Flux Radiometer (SSFR) were operated aboard a Jetstream 31 (J31) aircraft and acquired measurements during nineteen science flights (approx. 53 flight hours) over the Gulf of Maine in support of the INTEX-NA (INtercontinental chemical Transport Experiment-North America) and ITCT (Intercontinental Transport and Chemical Transformation of anthropogenic pollution) field studies. In this paper, we will present results from analyses of those data sets. AATS-14 measures the direct solar beam transmission at fourteen discrete wavelengths (354-2138 nm), and provides instantaneous measurements of aerosol optical depth (AOD) spectra and water vapor column content, in addition to vertical profiles of aerosol extinction and water vapor density during suitable aircraft ascents and descents. SSFR consists of separate nadir and zenith viewing hemispheric FOV sensors that yield measurements of up- and downwelling solar irradiance at a spectral resolution of approx. 8-12 nm over the wavelength range 300-1700 nm. The objectives of the J31-based measurements during INTEX/ITCT were to provide AOD data for the evaluation of MODIS (MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) and MISR (Multi-angle Imaging Spectro-Radiometer) AOD retrievals, quantify sea surface spectral albedo (which can contribute the largest uncertainty to satellite aerosol retrievals for low aerosol loading), test closure (consistency) among suborbital results, test chemical-transport models using AOD profiles, and assess regional radiative forcing by combining satellite and suborbital results. Specific J31 flight patterns were designed to achieve these objectives, and they included a mixture of vertical profiles (spiral and ramped ascents and descents) and constant altitude horizontal transects at a variety of altitudes. Additional information is included in the original extended abstract.

Russell, P. B.↗

Stirling Convertor Fasteners Reliability Quantification

Onboard Radioisotope Power Systems (RPS) being developed for NASA s deep-space science and exploration missions require reliable operation for up to 14 years and beyond. Stirling power conversion is a candidate for use in an RPS because it offers a multifold increase in the conversion efficiency of heat to electric power and reduced inventory of radioactive material. Structural fasteners are responsible to maintain structural integrity of the Stirling power convertor, which is critical to ensure reliable performance during the entire mission. Design of fasteners involve variables related to the fabrication, manufacturing, behavior of fasteners and joining parts material, structural geometry of the joining components, size and spacing of fasteners, mission loads, boundary conditions, etc. These variables have inherent uncertainties, which need to be accounted for in the reliability assessment. This paper describes these uncertainties along with a methodology to quantify the reliability, and provides results of the analysis in terms of quantified reliability and sensitivity of Stirling power conversion reliability to the design variables. Quantification of the reliability includes both structural and functional aspects of the joining components. Based on the results, the paper also describes guidelines to improve the reliability and verification testing.

Shah, Ashwin R.↗

The Effect of Suspension-Line Length on Viking Parachute Inflation Loads

Analytical calculations have considered the effect on maximum load of increasing the suspension-line length on the Viking parachute. Results indicate that unfurling time is increased to 1.85 seconds from 1.45 seconds, and that maximum loads are increased approximately 5 percent with an uncertainty of -4 percent to +3 percent.

Talay, Theodore A.↗

Details of Side Load Test Data and Analysis for a Truncated Ideal Contour Nozzle and a Parabolic Contour Nozzle

Two cold flow subscale nozzles were tested for side load characteristics during simulated nozzle start transients. The two test article contours were a truncated ideal and a parabolic. The current paper is an extension of a 2009 AIAA JPC paper on the test results for the same two nozzle test articles. The side load moments were measured with the strain tube approach in MSFC s Nozzle Test Facility. The processing techniques implemented to convert the strain gage signals into side load moment data are explained. Nozzle wall pressure profiles for separated nozzle flow at many NPRs are presented and discussed in detail. The effect of the test cell diffuser inlet on the parabolic nozzle s wall pressure profiles for separated flow is shown. The maximum measured side load moments for the two contours are compared. The truncated ideal contour s peak side load moment was 45% of that of the parabolic contour. The calculated side load moments, via mean-plus-three-standard-deviations at each nozzle pressure ratio, reproduced the characteristics and absolute values of measured maximums for both contours. The effect of facility vibration on the measured side load moments is quantified and the effect on uncertainty is calculated. The nozzle contour designs are discussed and the impact of a minor fabrication flaw in the nozzle contours is explained.

Ruf, Joseph H.↗

Hybrid power plants: An effective way of decreasing loss-of-load expectation

Diversifying variable renewable resources by combining wind, solar photovoltaic, and battery assets in a hybrid power plant can increase renewable energy usage efficiency and improve system flexibility, particularly in distributed energy systems. However, the resilience impact of these systems, particularly outage mitigation, can be difficult to quantify due to uncertainty in resource, energy demand, and outage occurrence. Here, this study outlines a framework to quantify the incremental benefit of hybrid power plant assets for reducing loss-of-load expectation during random outage events. Hybrid power plant performance during outages (considering varying duration and severity) is simulated using a Monte Carlo methodology to reflect uncertainty associated with renewable resource, load demand, and outage timing. Results demonstrate the additional incremental value from increasingly hybrid designs, in which relative capacities of wind, solar photovoltaic, and storage assets contribute to lower loss-of-load expectation than the constituent technologies would alone. The value of added wind or solar capacity increases as the plant composition approaches an equal split. The value of added battery capacity depends on the outage duration and severity, but the first 50 MWh of added storage capacity is the most valuable for reducing the loss-of-load expectation for all plant designs.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Design for cyclic loading endurance of composites

The application of the computer code IPACS (Integrated Probabilistic Assessment of Composite Structures) to aircraft wing type structures is described. The code performs a complete probabilistic analysis for composites taking into account the uncertainties in geometry, boundary conditions, material properties, laminate lay-ups, and loads. Results of the analysis are presented in terms of cumulative distribution functions (CDF) and probability density function (PDF) of the fatigue life of a wing type composite structure under different hygrothermal environments subjected to the random pressure. The sensitivity of the fatigue life to a number of critical structural/material variables is also computed from the analysis.

Shiao, Michael C.↗

Short-Term Load Forecasting Considering EV Charging Loads with Prediction Interval Evaluation

Short-term load forecasting plays a critical role in power system planning and operation. Along with the electrification of various loads, electricity demands are becoming increasingly hard to predict. Notably, the recent rise in electric vehicles (EVs) has further contributed to this unpredictability. To address this issue, this paper proposes a probabilistic load forecasting strategy utilizing Gaussian process regression, structured in a day-ahead manner. While many works focus on deterministic prediction, probabilistic forecasting offers additional insights into variability and uncertainty, enabling more flexible and reliable operation for power systems. To enhance the accuracy of the load forecasting model, the inputs include features related to EV charging habits as well as commonly used weather information. The load forecasting results are evaluated using various metrics, including conventional ones that assess the accuracy of point forecasts, as well as additional metrics that test the reliability of prediction intervals. The proposed load forecasting method is finally tested on real residential power consumption data and EV charging data sampled from real-world sources. The results prove that the new features can greatly improve the performance of the load forecasting method.

electrical vehicle↗

Base Flow Investigation of the Apollo AS-202 Command Module

In recent years, both Europe and the US are developing hypersonic research and operational vehicles. These include (re)entry capsules (both ballistic and lifting) and lifting bodies such as ExoMars, EXPERT, ARV, CEV and IXV. The research programs are meant to enable technology and engineering capabilities to support during the next decade the development of affordable (possibly reusable) space transportation systems as well as hypersonic weapons systems for time critical targets. These programs have a broad range of goals, ranging from the qualification of thermal protection systems, the assessment of RCS performances, the development of GNC algorithms, to the full demonstration of the performance and operability of the integrated vehicles. Since the aerothermodynamic characteristics influence nearly all elements of the vehicle design, the accurate prediction of the aerothermal environment is a prerequisite for the design of efficient hypersonic systems. Significant uncertainties in the prediction of the hypersonic aerodynamic and the aerothermal loads can lead to conservative margins in the design of the vehicle including its Outer Mould Line (OML), thermal protection system, structure, and required control system robustness. The current level of aerothermal prediction uncertainties results therefore in reduced vehicle performances (e.g., sub-optimal payload to mass ratio, increased operational constraints). On the other hand, present computational capabilities enable the simulation of three dimensional flow fields with complex thermo-chemical models over complete trajectories and ease the validation of these tools by, e.g., reconstruction of detailed wind tunnel tests performed under identified and controlled conditions (flow properties and vehicle attitude in particular). These controlled conditions are typically difficult to achieve when performing in flight measurements which in turn results in large associated measurement uncertainties. Similar problems arise when attempting to rebuild measurements performed in "hot" ground facilities, where the difficulty level is increased by the addition of the free-flow characterization itself. The implementation of ever more sophisticated thermochemical models is no obvious cure to the aforementioned problems since their effect is often overwhelmed by the large measurement uncertainties incurred in both flight and ground high enthalpy facilities. Concurrent to the previous considerations, a major contributor to the overall vehicle mass of re-entry vehicles is the afterbody thermal protection system. This is due to the large acreage (equal or bigger than that of the forebody) to be protected. The present predictive capabilities for base flows are comparatively lower than those for windward flowfields and offer therefore a substantial potential for improving the design of future re-entry vehicles. To that end, it is essential to address the accuracy of high fidelity CFD tools exercised in the US and EU, which motivates a thorough investigation of the present status of hypersonic flight afterbody heating. This paper addresses the predictive capabilities of after body flow fields of re-entry vehicles investigated in the frame of the NATO/RTO - RTG-043 Task Group and is structured as follows: First, the verification of base flow topologies on the basis of available wind-tunnel results performed under controlled supersonic conditions (i.e., cold flows devoid of reactive effects) is performed. Such tests address the detailed characterization of the base flow with particular emphasis on separation/reattachment and their relation to Mach number effects. The tests have been performed on an Apollo-like re-entry capsule configuration. Second, the tools validated in the frame of the previous effort are exercised and appraised against flight-test data collected during the Apollo AS-202 re-entry.

Walpot, Louis M. G.↗

Robust Distribution System Load Restoration With Time-Dependent Cold Load Pickup

Service restoration is one of the critical functions to enable the future self-healing distribution system. To restore the distribution system in a timely and reliable manner, the realistic system operating conditions need to be accurately characterized. Here, two main factors that have great impacts on distribution system restoration (DSR) in practice are investigated. First, cold load pickup (CLPU), generally caused by thermostatically controlled loads (TCLs), is a common phenomenon after an outage and shaped by the outage duration. However, the time-dependent behaviors of CLPU are rarely considered in literature. In this paper, the operating state evolution of TCLs after an outage is analyzed to characterize time-dependent CLPU. And the time-dependent CLPU is analytically embedded in DSR to accurately represent the actual behaviors of the restored loads. Second, it is difficult to predict loads that fluctuate during DSR due to the lack of real-time measurement data. Accordingly, a robust DSR based on the information gap decision theory (IGDT) is proposed to address this challenge, fully considering the uncertainty of CLPU. The proposed models are tested in IEEE 13-node and 123-node test feeders. Simulation results demonstrate that the time-dependent CLPU model and the uncertainty modeling of CLPU can accurately capture the actual behaviors of loads with TCLs after an outage, which greatly improves DSR decisions in practice.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Design for cyclic loading endurance of composites

The present paper describes the application of the computer code IPACS (Integrated Probabilistic Assessment of Composite Structures) to air craft wing type structures. The code performs a complete probabilistic structural analysis for composites taking into account the uncertainties in geometry, boundary conditions, material properties, laminate lay-ups and loads. Results of the analysis are presented in terms of cumulative distribution functions (CDF) and probability density function (PDF) of life of a wing type composite structure under different hygrothermal environments subjected to random pressure. The sensitivity of fatigue life to a number of critical structural/material variables is also computed from the analysis.

Shiao, Michael C.↗

Low Activity Waste Glass Optimization with Property Models from Machine Learning, Part 2: Experimental Validation and Active Learning

The United States Department of Energy is responsible for managing legacy nuclear waste stored in underground tanks at the Hanford Site. To treat the waste, it is planned as the current baseline to separately vitrify low-activity waste (LAW) and high-level waste fractions. Previously, machine learning (ML) based glass property models (e.g., chemical durability, viscosity, electrical conductivity and SO3 solubility) were developed with prediction uncertainties. A waste glass optimization approach was then established to enable the capability of using these ML models in LAW glass formulation. In this study, the previous ML models were first experimentally validated, and the results were incorporated back into the database to update the ML models. The updated models and formulations showed increased waste loading while reducing the failure rate, demonstrating improved predictive accuracy, reduced uncertainties, and the effectiveness of active learning in guiding high-dimensional, nonlinear LAW glass design. This represents the first experimental validation of ML based LAW glass formulation, with practical benefits such as higher waste loading, shorter mission duration, and lower operational risk.

Lu, Xiaonan (ORCID:0000000179708148)↗

Predicting peak day and peak hour of electricity demand with ensemble machine learning

Battery energy storage systems can be used for peak demand reduction in power systems, leading to significant economic benefits. Two practical challenges are 1) accurately determining the peak load days and hours and 2) quantifying and reducing uncertainties associated with the forecast in probabilistic risk measures for dispatch decision-making. In this study, we develop a supervised machine learning approach to generate 1) the probability of the next operation day containing the peak hour of the month and 2) the probability of an hour to be the peak hour of the day. Guidance is provided on preparation and augmentation of data as well as selection of machine learning models and decision-making thresholds. The proposed approach is applied to the Duke Energy Progress system and successfully captures 69 peak days out of 72 testing months with a 3% exceedance probability threshold. On 90% of the peak days, the actual peak hour is among the 2 h with the highest probabilities.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗