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At least 289 records · Page 16

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DOE OSTI2026

Demand response event simulator and risk-aware bidding tool for industrial customers

Incentive Based Demand Response (IBDR) program participation delivers financial benefits to the consumers and resiliency benefits to the electricity grid. Effectively participating in these programs as an industrial consumer requires bidding strategies that balance financial risk with operational constraints. Existing bidding tools tend not to fully incorporate stochastic IBDR event modeling, program specific baseline and payment/penalty calculations, or demand reduction process control schemes that account for the cascading impacts of shutdown in complex facilities. Here, this work presents an IBDR event simulator and risk-aware bidding framework tool integrating three key components: a flexible, parameterized demand response event generator that rigorously accounts for program structures and stochasticity, a demand response operational simulation model that generates explicit control strategies for load reduction, and a Monte Carlo simulator to evaluate financial risk for varied capacity bids. A case study at a wastewater treatment plant participating in PG&E's Capacity Bidding Program demonstrates the framework's utility. In the peak capacity price month of August, optimal bidding by the wastewater treatment plant nets a mean IBDR benefit of $101,000 (67% of the August electricity bill) with 0.4% probability of a financial loss. This framework enables industrial operators to make informed bidding decisions, negotiate better program terms with demand response load aggregators, and analyze energy flexibility investments at their facilities. Ultimately, this work reduces participation barriers in IBDR programs and supports the broader goal of enhancing grid reliability and renewable energy integration.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Moving Beyond Direct Load Control: A Maturity Model for Realizing the Promise of Demand Flexibility

This report discusses a new maturity model that regulators and utilities can use to guide and expand demand flexibility programs and enable the resources to provide more grid services. The model has six demand flexibility categories: planning and design; customer engagement; program operations; evaluation, measurement and verification; distributed energy resource orchestration; and data infrastructure. Within each category, capabilities are identified and described on a maturity scale that ranges from performing below expectations to improving on best practices.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

An assessment of power flexibility from commercial building cooling systems in the United States

Understanding varying characteristics and aggregate potential of power flexibility from different building types considering regional diversity is critically important to actively engaging building resources in future eco-friendly, low-cost, and sustainable power systems. This paper presents a comprehensive characteristics analysis and potential assessment of the power flexibility from heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) loads in commercial buildings in the U.S. using a simulation-based method. In this method, commercial buildings are first grouped by building types and climate regions. The U.S. Department of Energy Commercial Prototype Building Models are used to represent an average building in each group and are simulated to characterize corresponding power flexibility. Based on building survey data, the number of commercial buildings in each group is estimated and used to calculate aggregate power flexibility. It is found that HVAC loads in commercial buildings offer more flexibility for increasing power consumption than for decreasing it. The power consumption of commercial buildings in the U.S. can be increased by 46 GW and decreased by 40 GW on peak summer days. Among all commercial building types, standalone retail buildings provide the most absolute flexibility while the medium office buildings have the most flexibility as a percentage of the rated power consumption.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2021

End-Use Load Profiles for the U.S. Building Stock

The United States is embarking on an ambitious transition to a 100% clean energy economy by 2050, which will require improving the flexibility of electric grids. One way to achieve grid flexibility is to shed or shift demand to align with changing grid needs. To facilitate this, it is critical to understand how and when energy is used. High quality end-use load profiles (EULPs) provide this information, and can help cities, states, and utilities understand the time-sensitive value of energy efficiency, demand response, and distributed energy resources. Publicly available EULPs have traditionally had limited application because of age and incomplete geographic representation. To help fill this gap, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) funded a three-year project, End-Use Load Profiles for the U.S. Building Stock, that culminated in this publicly available dataset of calibrated and validated 15-minute resolution load profiles for all major residential and commercial building types and end uses, across all climate regions in the United States. These EULPs were created by calibrating the ResStock and ComStock physics-based building stock models using many different measured datasets, as described in the "Technical Report Documenting Methodology" linked in the submission.

Array↗

DOE OSTI2020

Building Demand Flexibility: Grid Service Value of Future Market Entrants

The building sector is an important source of demand-side flexibility that is crucial for renewable energy integration in the future power systems. The grid service value of building flexibility, especially that which provides load shifting, has not been analyzed for the United States. We use a technology-agnostic approach based on detailed grid expansion and production cost modeling results to evaluate the capacity, energy, and ancillary service values of a marginal kilowatt-hour (kWh) of daily, shiftable building flexibility as a presumed market entrant in the 2030 U.S. power systems. We find the monthly mean of building flexibility has a range of 0-38 cents/kWh-day, depending on the original usage hour, month, region, building flexibility parameters, and grid scenario. The daily value consists of the highest-value hour each day across all the scenarios has a range of 0-620 cents/kWh-day. The results are provided in an open database for users to obtain the values of specific technologies based on what services can be provided, when, and in what quantities.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Double-Signal Retail Pricing Scheme for Acquiring Operational Flexibility from Batteries

Batteries can provide valuable operational flexibility to facilitate the system efficiency. However, there lacks market environments to effectively harness and monetize the value of these assets. Most existing works apply a profit-oriented single-signal pricing scheme, which mixes the value of energy and flexibility together and may ultimately raise the electricity bill. Therefore, this paper proposes a profit-neutral double-signal retail pricing scheme that distinguishes elastic market players (i.e., batteries) from inelastic market players (i.e., inflexible loads) and quantifies the value of energy and flexibility separately. Experimental results indicate that under the incentive provided by the proposed retail pricing scheme: 1) The system efficiency benefit aligns with benefits to both batteries and inflexible loads; 2) Value of operational flexibility, contributing to improve the energy efficiency, can be transparently priced and fairly allocated among batteries; and 3) The dominant role in which inflexible loads play on determining the market price is avoided.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Leveraging reVeal for Data Center Siting [Slides]

reVeal (the reV Extension for Analyzing Loads) is an open-source, flexible geospatial platform designed to characterize site suitability, with the goal of informing spatial downscaling and disaggregation of large-scale load projections.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating Thermostats' Deadbands Using HVAC Hardware-In-the-Loop Experiment for Advanced Control Strategies

Smart thermostats have gained significant popularity due to their potential for optimizing energy consumption and enhanced user control while ensuring occupants' comfort. The deadband, also referred to as temperature differential, is defined as the temperature difference between the desired setpoint and upper threshold or lower threshold for the HVAC equipment to turn on. It is a key factor influencing energy efficiency and user satisfaction. This paper presents a comparative analysis of the deadbands of five different smart thermostats, tested with a heat pump, aiming to identify variations in their deadband settings and implications for energy management. The experimental study was conducted using a HVAC hardware-in-theloop (HIL) system that integrates smart thermostats with physical HVAC equipment in a simulated house environment. The study explores the trade-offs between energy efficiency and occupant comfort and highlights how different thermostats participating in demand response event cycle differently based on their deadband settings. The findings offer valuable insights into how selecting the right thermostat or configuring smart thermostat with appropriate deadband settings can be leveraged to enhance demand response capabilities, shift loads effectively and improve operational flexibility in HVAC systems.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating Thermostats' Deadbands Using HVAC Hardware-In-the-Loop Experiment for Advanced Control Strategies: Preprint

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Distributionally Robust Optimization Framework for Stochastic Assessment of Power System Flexibility in Economic Dispatch

Given the complexity of power systems, particularly the high-dimensional variability of net loads, accurately depicting the entire operational range of net loads poses a challenge. To address this, recent methodologies have sought to gauge the maximum range of net load uncertainty across all buses. In this paper, we consider the stochastic nature of the net load and introduce a distributionally robust optimization framework that assesses system flexibility stochastically, accommodating a minimal extent of system violations. We verify the proposed method by solving the flexibility of the economic dispatch problem on four distinct IEEE standard test systems. Compared to traditional deterministic flexibility evaluations, our approach consistently yields less conservative flexibility outcomes.

distributionally robust optimization↗

DOE OSTI2023

Efficiency and Demand Flexibility in Large Office Buildings: The Potential for Cost Savings and CO 2 Reductions from Lighting and Cooling Measures

This report presents the estimated impact of lighting and cooling efficiency and demand flexibility measures in large office buildings in each state in the contiguous United States. It provides modeled results for three different metrics: bill savings, regional grid operational costs savings, and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions reductions. Lighting efficiency and demand flexibility are estimated to reduce load by up to 80 MWh/yr in a single large office building. These load reductions result in customer bill savings of up to $8,800/yr per building, with the highest savings in southern and midwestern states. Grid operating cost savings are estimated at up to $3,240/yr/building, with greatest benefit in southern and northeastern states. CO 2 emissions reduction potential is highest in the Dakotas, Nebraska, across the Midwest, in West Virginia, and in Mississippi (<48,200 kg/yr/building). Comparatively, cooling measures are found to have less load reduction potential (<28.5 MWh/yr/building), with the greatest potential in southern states including Texas, which ranks top of the list across several of the metrics studied. In numerous states, shifting cooling load to off-peak hours is found to increase costs and CO 2 emissions because precooling results in increased load during high-cost or high-CO 2 emissions periods. In general, focusing on cooling efficiency and load shedding has the potential for more savings. In all cases, the specific rate structure is a significant determinant in actual bill savings, which are up to $4,000/yr/building. To realize the full potential for bill savings through an energy measure, building operators must identify how the measure will change the building load pattern and the interaction of this load change with the applicable rate tariff. To realize CO 2 emissions reductions, industry and state coordination is needed to verify which fuel source is on the margin and then to create incentives for end users to reduce load during high-CO 2 emissions hours. Regular updates to data sets and analyses are critical. Regulators and policymakers are well positioned to facilitate the necessary coordination between the electric industry and building energy managers to develop appropriate price signals and incentives.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Critical design load case fatigue and ultimate failure simulation for a 10-m H-type vertical-axis wind turbine

While previous studies investigating critical VAWT design load cases have focused on large and relatively flexible Darrieus designs, the bulk of current commercial products seeking certification fall in the relatively small, stiff, and H-type configuration, such as the XFlow Energy Corporation turbine that this study compares against. Understanding the critical design load case impacts for both fatigue and ultimate failure for this size and type of VAWT are imperative for certification. The abil

Brownstein, Ian↗

DOE OSTI2021

Gaussian Process Regression for Aggregate Baseline Load Forecasting

Demand response (DR) is one of the most effective ways to maintain the reliability and improve the flexibility of power systems. Accurate forecasts of baseline loads are essential for DR programs. In the era of big data, machine learning-based approaches present a unique opportunity for baseline load forecasting. Thus, this paper presents a machine learning-based approach using a relatively less explored algorithm, Gaussian process regression (GPR), to forecast aggregate baseline loads. As such, a dataset was generated using a set of EnergyPlus simulations. Using the generated dataset, a GPR-based forecasting model was developed. In addition, support vector regression (SVR)-, artificial neural network (ANN)-, and averaging-based models were developed as baseline models for comparison. These models were compared in terms of accuracy, simplicity, and integrity. The prediction performance of the models showed that the GPR-based model is more accurate and reliable than the others. Such high performance shows the potential of the GPR in baseline load forecasting. GPR, therefore, can be used for DR applications.

Amasyali, Kadir↗

DOE OSTI2020

Generating realistic building electrical load profiles through the Generative Adversarial Network (GAN)

Building electrical load profiles can improve understanding of building energy efficiency, demand flexibility, and building-grid interactions. Current approaches to generating load profiles are time-consuming and not capable of reflecting the dynamic and stochastic behaviors of real buildings; some approaches also trigger data privacy concerns. In this study, we proposed a novel approach for generating realistic electrical load profiles of buildings through the Generative Adversarial Network (GAN), a machine learning technique that is capable of revealing an unknown probability distribution purely from data. The proposed approach has three main steps: (1) normalizing the daily 24-hour load profiles, (2) clustering the daily load profiles with the k-means algorithm, and (3) using GAN to generate daily load profiles for each cluster. The approach was tested with an open-source database – the Building Data Genome Project. We validated the proposed method by comparing the mean, standard deviation, and distribution of key parameters of the generated load profiles with those of the real ones. The KL divergence of the generated and real load profiles are within 0.3 for majority of parameters and clusters. Additionally, results showed the load profiles generated by GAN can capture not only the general trend but also the random variations of the actual electrical loads in buildings. We report the proposed GAN approach can be used to generate building electrical load profiles, verify other load profile generation models, detect changes to load profiles, and more importantly, anonymize smart meter data for sharing, to support research and applications of grid-interactive efficient buildings.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2022

The Effects of Mixing Multi-Component HLW Glasses on Spinel Crystal Size

The Hanford Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant will vitrify radioactive waste into borosilicate glass. The high-level waste (HLW) glass formulations are constrained by processing and property requirements, including restrictions aimed at avoiding detrimental impacts of spinel crystallization in the melter. To understand the impact of glass chemistry on crystallization, two HLW glasses precipitating small (?5 µm) spinel crystals were individually mixed with a glass that precipitated large (?45 µm) spinel crystals in ratios of 25, 50, and 75 wt%. The size of spinel crystals in the mixed glasses varied from 5 to 20 µm. Small crystal size was attributed to: (1) high concentrations of nuclei due to the presence of ruthenium oxide and (2) chromium oxide aiding high rates of nucleation. Results indicate that the spinel crystal size can be controlled using chromium oxide and/or noble metal concentrations in the melt, even in complex mixtures like HLW glasses. Small crystals tend to settle slowly, so they are acceptable in the melter without a risk of failure. Allowing higher concentrations of spinel-forming waste components in the waste glass enables glass compositions with higher waste loading, thus increasing plant operational flexibility. An additional benefit to the presence of chromium oxide in the glass composition is the potential for the oxide to protect melter walls against corrosion.

Lonergan, Charmayne E.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Pulsed-Power Innovations for Next-Generation, High-Current Drivers

There are proposals to build larger high-current drivers to be used for high-energy-density physics (HEDP), inertial confinement fusion (ICF), radiation effects testing, and basic science. Drivers significantly larger than the Z Machine at Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM, USA, encounter increasing difficulties in water power flow, insulator performance, and vacuum power flow. The physics requirements of imploding loads limit a designer’s flexibility in choosing machine parameters, such as current rise time, driving impedance, and total inductance. This article enumerates these physics constraints and shows how they impact driver design. Here, we conclude that advances in pulsed-power capabilities are needed to control risk and to build a cost-effective driver at peak currents of ~60 MA.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

evmc-supply-curves (Electric Vehicle Managed Charging Supply Curves) [SWR-25-69]

Data and a supporting lightweight Python package that describes possible costs for enabling EV managed charging from 2025 to 2050 for three dispatch mechanisms: Time-of-Use (TOU), Real Time Pricing (RTP), and direct load control (DLC) and four flexibility scenarios (Flat and Low, Mid, and High Flex).

Matsuda-Dunn, Reiko [National Renewable Energy Lab↗

DOE OSTI2020

Optimizing HVAC Operations in Multi-unit Buildings for Grid Demand Response

The thermal inertia of buildings, along with the flexibility associated with thermostatically controlled loads (TCL) allows heating ventilation and cooling (HVAC) systems to be used for grid demand response (DR). In this work, we consider an HVAC system that serves multiple units in a residential building to meet their space heating requirements. We aim to determine the optimal power flow to each unit that minimizes the power costs incurred by the building's occupants while keeping in consideration their thermal comfort. The DR program is assumed to allow the building temperatures to deviate from the set-points up to a maximum limit. Despite the complex, non-linear structure of the problem, we show how the optimal solutions can be obtained efficiently using quadratic programming. Since HVAC systems can run on either electricity or natural gas, we study the efficacy of the DR regime for both hourly electricity prices and flat gas prices over the course of 24 hours. Finally, we run simulations to determine the optimal thermal power and the evolution of unit temperatures for various energy pricing schemes.

Naqvi, Syed A.↗