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At least 289 records · Page 16

A Comparison of Results from NASA's Meteoroid Engineering Model to the LDEF Cratering Record

NASA's Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) has provided an extensive record of the meteoroid environment in low Earth orbit. LDEF's combination of fixed orientation, large collecting area, and long lifetime imposes constraints on the absolute flux of potentially hazardous meteoroids. The relative impact rate on each of LDEF's fourteen surfaces arises from the underlying velocity distribution and directionality of the meteoroid environment. For the first time, we model the meteoroid environment encountered by LDEF over its operational lifetime using NASA's Meteoroid Engineering Model Release 2 (MEMR2) and compare the model results with the observed craters of potentially hazardous meteoroids (i.e. crater diameters larger than approximately 0.75 mm). We discuss the extent to which the observations and model agree and how the impact rates across all of the LDEF surfaces may be utilized to help calibrate future versions of MEM.

Ehlert, S.↗

A Comparison of Results From NASA's Meteoroid Engineering Model to the LDEF Cratering Record

NASA's Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) has provided an extensive record of the meteoroid environment in Low Earth Orbit. LDEF's combination of fixed orientation, large collecting area, and long lifetime imposes constraints on the absolute flux of potentially hazardous meteoroids. The relative impact rate on each of LDEF's fourteen surfaces arises from the underlying velocity distribution and directionality of the meteoroid environment. For the first time, we model the meteoroid environment encountered by LDEF over its operational lifetime using NASA's Meteoroid Engineering Model Release 2 (MEMR2) and compare the model results with the observed craters of potentially hazardous meteoroids (i.e. crater diameters larger than approximately 0.6 mm). We discuss the extent to which the observations and model agree and how the impact rates across all of the LDEF surfaces may suggest improvements to the underlying assumptions that go into future versions of MEM.

Ehlert, S.↗

Model Sensitivity Studies of the Decrease in Atmospheric Carbon Tetrachloride

Carbon tetrachloride (CCl4) is an ozone-depleting substance, which is controlled by the Montreal Protocol and for which the atmospheric abundance is decreasing. However, the current observed rate of this decrease is known to be slower than expected based on reported CCl4 emissions and its estimated overall atmospheric lifetime. Here we use a three-dimensional (3-D) chemical transport model to investigate the impact on its predicted decay of uncertainties in the rates at which CCl4 is removed from the atmosphere by photolysis, by ocean uptake and by degradation in soils. The largest sink is atmospheric photolysis (74% of total), but a reported 10% uncertainty in its combined photolysis cross section and quantum yield has only a modest impact on the modelled rate of CCl4 decay. This is partly due to the limiting effect of the rate of transport of CCl4 from the main tropospheric reservoir to the stratosphere, where photolytic loss occurs. The model suggests large interannual variability in the magnitude of this stratospheric photolysis sink caused by variations in transport. The impact of uncertainty in the minor soil sink (9%of total) is also relatively small. In contrast, the model shows that uncertainty in ocean loss (17%of total) has the largest impact on modelled CCl4 decay due to its sizeable contribution to CCl4 loss and large lifetime uncertainty range (147 to 241 years). With an assumed CCl4 emission rate of 39 Gg year(exp -1), the reference simulation with the best estimate of loss processes still underestimates the observed CCl4 (overestimates the decay) over the past 2 decades but to a smaller extent than previous studies. Changes to the rate of CCl4 loss processes, in line with known uncertainties, could bring the model into agreement with in situ surface and remote-sensing measurements, as could an increase in emissions to around 47 Gg year(exp -1). Further progress in constraining the CCl4 budget is partly limited by systematic biases between observational datasets. For example, surface observations from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) network are larger than from the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) network but have shown a steeper decreasing trend over the past 2 decades. These differences imply a difference in emissions which is significant relative to uncertainties in the magnitudes of the CCl4 sinks.

Carbon Trechloride↗

Modeling a maintenance simulation of the geosynchronous platform

A modeling technique used to conduct a simulation study comparing various maintenance routines for a space platform is dicussed. A system model is described and illustrated, the basic concepts of a simulation pass are detailed, and sections on failures and maintenance are included. The operation of the system across time is best modeled by a discrete event approach with two basic events - failure and maintenance of the system. Each overall simulation run consists of introducing a particular model of the physical system, together with a maintenance policy, demand function, and mission lifetime. The system is then run through many passes, each pass corresponding to one mission and the model is re-initialized before each pass. Statistics are compiled at the end of each pass and after the last pass a report is printed. Items of interest typically include the time to first maintenance, total number of maintenance trips for each pass, average capability of the system, etc.

Kleiner, A. F., Jr.↗

On the Feasibility of Studying Shortwave Aerosol Radiative Forcing of Climate Using Dual-Wavelength Aerosol Backscatter Lidar

The current low confidence in the estimates of aerosol-induced perturbations of Earth's radiation balance is caused by the highly non-uniform compositional, spatial and temporal distributions of tropospheric aerosols on a global scale owing to their heterogeneous sources and short lifetimes. Nevertheless, recent studies have shown that the inclusion of aerosol effects in climate model calculations can improve agreement with observed spatial and temporal temperature distributions. In light of the short lifetimes of aerosols, determination of their global distribution with space-borne sensors seems to be a necessary approach. Until recently, satellite measurements of tropospheric aerosols have been approximate and did not provide the full set of information required to determine their radiative effects. With the advent of active aerosol remote sensing from space (e.g., PICASSO-CENA), the applicability fo lidar-derived aerosol 180 deg -backscatter data to radiative flux calculations and hence studies of aerosol effects on climate needs to be investigated.

Redemann, Jens↗

Use NU-WRF and GCE Model to Simulate the Precipitation Processes During MC3E Campaign

One of major CRM approaches to studying precipitation processes is sometimes referred to as "cloud ensemble modeling". This approach allows many clouds of various sizes and stages of their lifecycles to be present at any given simulation time. Large-scale effects derived from observations are imposed into CRMs as forcing, and cyclic lateral boundaries are used. The advantage of this approach is that model results in terms of rainfall and QI and Q2 usually are in good agreement with observations. In addition, the model results provide cloud statistics that represent different types of clouds/cloud systems during their lifetime (life cycle). The large-scale forcing derived from MC3EI will be used to drive GCE model simulations. The model-simulated results will be compared with observations from MC3E. These GCE model-simulated datasets are especially valuable for LH algorithm developers. In addition, the regional scale model with very high-resolution, NASA Unified WRF is also used to real time forecast during the MC3E campaign to ensure that the precipitation and other meteorological forecasts are available to the flight planning team and to interpret the forecast results in terms of proposed flight scenarios. Post Mission simulations are conducted to examine the sensitivity of initial and lateral boundary conditions to cloud and precipitation processes and rainfall. We will compare model results in terms of precipitation and surface rainfall using GCE model and NU-WRF

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

Theoretical studies of diffuse cloud chemistry

Gas-phase chemistry in the steady state is reviewed. The chemistries of C and O, and the reactions for the formation of CO, D-bearing, and N-bearing molecules are discussed. Consideration is given to the column density of H3(+) in diffuse clouds, the rate coefficient, abundances of H3(+), and the steady-state models of van Dishoeck and Black (1986). The varying lifetime of H2, from 1000 years at the boundary to 5,000,000 years or more at the center of diffuse clouds, and changes in the H2/H abundance ratio in dense clouds are studied, and the nonequilibrium chemistry that occurs in shock-heated gas is analyzed. The estimation of photo rates and the radiation field; models of molecular formations on grains; and the synthesis of molecules in clouds are examined.

Black, John H.↗

Solar UV Radiation and the Origin of Life on Earth

We have started a comprehensive, interdisciplinary study of the influence of solar ultraviolet radiation on the atmosphere of of the early Earth. We plan to model the chemistry of the Earth atmosphere during its evolution, using observed UV flux distributions of early solar analogs as boundary conditions in photochemical models of the Earth's atmosphere. The study has four distinct but interlinked parts: (1) Establishing the radiation of the early Sun; (2) Determining the photochemistry of the early Earth's atmosphere; (3) Estimating the rates of H2 loss from the atmosphere; and (4) Ascertaining how sensitive is the photochemistry to the metallicity of the Sun. We are currently using STIS and EUVE to obtain high-quality far-UV and extreme-UV observations of three early-solar analogs. We will perform a detailed non-LTE study of each stars, and construct theoretical model photosphere, and an empirical model chromospheres, which can be used to extrapolate the continuum to the Lyman continuum region. Given a realistic flux distribution of the early Sun, we will perform photochemical modeling of weakly reducing primitive atmospheres to determine the lifetime and photochemistry of CH4. In particular, we will make estimates of the amount of CH4 present in the prebiotic atmosphere, and estimate the atmospheric CH4 concentration during the Late Archean (2.5-3.0 b.y. ago) and determine whether it would have been sufficiently abundant to help offset reduced solar luminosity at that time. Having obtained a photochemical model, we will solve for the concentrations of greenhouse gasses and important pre-biotic molecules, and perform a detailed radiative transfer calculations to compute the UV flux reaching the surface.

Heap, Sara R.↗

Space Radiation Cancer, Circulatory Disease and CNS Risks for Near Earth Asteroid and Mars Missions: Uncertainty Estimates for Never-Smokers

The uncertainties in estimating the health risks from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPE) are a major limitation to the length of space missions and the evaluation of potential risk mitigation approaches. NASA limits astronaut exposures to a 3% risk of exposure induced cancer death (REID), and protects against uncertainties in risks projections using an assessment of 95% confidence intervals after propagating the error from all model factors (environment and organ exposure, risk coefficients, dose-rate modifiers, and quality factors). Because there are potentially significant late mortality risks from diseases of the circulatory system and central nervous system (CNS) which are less well defined than cancer risks, the cancer REID limit is not necessarily conservative. In this report, we discuss estimates of lifetime risks from space radiation and new estimates of model uncertainties are described. The key updates to the NASA risk projection model are: 1) Revised values for low LET risk coefficients for tissue specific cancer incidence, with incidence rates transported to an average U.S. population to estimate the probability of Risk of Exposure Induced Cancer (REIC) and REID. 2) An analysis of smoking attributable cancer risks for never-smokers that shows significantly reduced lung cancer risk as well as overall cancer risks from radiation compared to risk estimated for the average U.S. population. 3) Derivation of track structure based quality functions depends on particle fluence, charge number, Z and kinetic energy, E. 4) The assignment of a smaller maximum in quality function for leukemia than for solid cancers. 5) The use of the ICRP tissue weights is shown to over-estimate cancer risks from SPEs by a factor of 2 or more. Summing cancer risks for each tissue is recommended as a more accurate approach to estimate SPE cancer risks. 6) Additional considerations on circulatory and CNS disease risks. Our analysis shows that an individual s history of smoking exposure has a larger impact on GCR risk estimates than amounts of radiation shielding or age at exposure (amongst adults). Risks for never-smokers compared to the average U.S. population are estimated to be reduced between 30% and 60% dependent on model assumptions. Lung cancer is the major contributor to the reduction for never-smokers, with additional contributions from circulatory diseases and cancers of the stomach, liver, bladder, oral cavity and esophagus, and leukemia. The relative contribution of CNS risks to the overall space radiation detriment is potentially increased for never-smokers such as most astronauts. Problems in estimating risks for former smokers and the influence of second-hand smoke are discussed. Compared to the LET approximation, the new track structure derived radiation quality functions lead to a reduced risk for relativistic energy particles and increased risks for intermediate energy particles. Revised estimates for the number of safe days in space at solar minimum for heavy shielding conditions are described for never-smokers and the average U.S. population. Results show that missions to near Earth asteroids (NEA) or Mars violate NASA's radiation safety standards with the current levels of uncertainties. Greater improvements in risk estimates for never-smokers are possible, and would be dependent on improved understanding of risk transfer models, and elucidating the role of space radiation on the various stages of disease formation (e.g. initiation, promotion, and progression).

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗

Satellite lifetime routine user's manual

A FORTRAN coded computer program which determines secular variations in mean orbital elements of earth satellites and the lifetime of the orbit is described. The dynamical model treats a point mass satellite subject to solar and lunar disturbing gravitational fields, second, third and fourth harmonics of the earth's oblate potential, earth's atmospheric drag, and solar radiation pressure. Each of these disturbing functions may be selectively simulated. Data preparation instructions, a sample problem, and definitions of output quantities are included.

Everett, H. U.↗

Spiral clouds on Mars - A new atmospheric phenomenon

Viking Orbiter images obtained during the 1978 northern summer on Mars show unusual spiral cloud patterns at high northern latitudes. Well-developed spirals occurred only during early summer at a time when the sublimation of the annual CO2 frost cap in the north had ceased. The systems ranged in size from 200 to 500 km and all spirals were wound in a counter-clockwise sense. An explanation is proposed, based on the radiatively driven instability described by Gierasch, Ingersoll, and Williams. The model predicts disturbances with the correct scale and lifetime. However, the successful development of the spirals depends on the existence of weak mean winds, suggesting that these instabilities can only develop at special null points in the general circulation. It is argued that such special circumstances are most likely to occur during early northern summer and are less likely to obtain at a comparable season in the Southern Hemisphere.

Gierasch, P.↗

Aspects of pulsar evolution

Pulsar statistics are examined from the point of view of generalized evolutionary equations that assume that pulsar torques diminish exponentially with a decay-time constant T, to be determined empirically. Decay or alignment of the neutron-star magnetic moment, or a combination, may cause the torque to diminish with time. The Sturrock-Ruderman-Sutherland pair-production model provides a quantitative way to calculate pulsar lifetimes. Different tests, which use the data in partially independent ways and involve different assumptions, consistently suggest that T is less than a million years and may be as short as several hundred thousand years. The distribution of pulsars, and of those with more than 5% missing pulses is quantitatively consistent with pair production threshold, when the variation of this threshold with neutron star mass is taken into account.

Fujimura, F. S.↗

Earth Radiation Budget Experiment instrument design status

The design configuration of Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) instruments are presented. The ERBE scanners and nonscanners are discussed in terms of hardware and optical development, operational parameters, and calibration plans for ground and flight systems. The various instrument designs are given and described in detail. It is emphasized that the design goal is to approach state-of-the-art laboratory radiometric accuracies with spaceflight qualified hardware in an earth orbit environment with a projected operational lifetime of over two years. Accurate inputs to models of weather and climate are expected which will allow a better understanding of radiation transfer and the energy balance of the earth.

Kopia, L. P.↗

X-ray illumination of globular cluster puzzles

Globular clusters are thought to be among the oldest objects in the Galaxy, and provide, in this connection, important clues for determining the age and process of formation of the Galaxy. The present investigation is concerned with puzzles relating to the X-ray emission of globular clusters, taking into account questions regarding the location of X-ray emitting clusters (XEGC) unusually near the galactic plane and/or galactic center. An adopted model is discussed for the nature, formation, and lifetime of X-ray sources in globular clusters. An analysis of the available data is conducted in connection with a search for correlations between binary formation time scales, central relaxation times, galactic locations, and X-ray emission. The positive correlation found between distance from galactic center and two-body binary formation time for globular clusters, explanations for this correlation, and the hypothesis that X-ray sources in globular clusters require binary star systems provide a possible explanation of the considered puzzles.

Lightman, A. P.↗

The origin of CS in comet IRAS-Araki-Alcock 1983d

It is shown that the IUE observations of CS in the atmosphere of comet IRAS-Araki-Alcock 1983d are consistent with its formation by the photodissociation of CS2 released from the nucleus. The observed scale length can be matched by a calculated scale length, which is based on the photochemical lifetime of CS2 at 1 AU and hydrodynamic models of the velocity field in the coma. A flow velocity of about 0.6 km/s is required to fit the data, which is in excellent agreement with recent calculations of the flow regime in the inner coma.

Jackson, W. M.↗

Pioneer Venus Lyman-alpha observations of Comet P/Giacobini-Zinner and the life expectancy of cometary hydrogen

Results are given of the Pioneer Venus observation of the hydrogen coma of Comet P/Giacobini-Zinner on September 11, 1985 during the fly-by conducted by the International Cometary Explorer (ICE). Analysis of the data with a time-dependent 3-D particle-trajectory model implies a water production rate of 2.2 x 10 to the 28 per second on that day. The model includes the irregular variations in the H lifetime and the H Lyman-alpha fluorescence rate determined from simultaneous measurements of the solar wind by ICE and of the solar UV by the Solar Mesosphere Explorer (SME), respectively. The H lifetime varied from 2 x 10 to the 5 to 3 x 10 to the 6 seconds during the 42 days preceding the observation.

Combi, M. R.↗

Heating and melting of small icy satellites by the decay of Al-26

The effect of radiogenic heating due to Al-26 on the thermal evolution of small icy satellites is studied. The object is to find the extent of internal melting as a function of the satellite radius and of the initial Al-26 abundance. The implicit assumption, based on observations of young stars, is that planet and satellite accretion occurred on a time scale of about 10 to the 6th yr (comparable with the lifetime of Al-26. The icy satellites are modeled as spheres of initially amorphous ice, with chondritic abundances of K-40, Th-232, U-235, and U-238, corresponding to an ice/dust mass ratio of 1. Evolutionary calculations are carried out, spanning 4.5 x 10 to the 9th yr, for different combinations of the two free parameters. Heat transfer by subsolidus convection is neglected for these small satellites. The main conclusion is that the initial Al-26 abundance capable of melting icy bodies of satellite size to a significant extent is more than 10 times lower than that prevailing in the interstellar medium (or that inferred from the Ca-Al rich inclusions of the Allende meteorite, about 7 x 10 to the -7th by mass).

Prialnik, Dina↗