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At least 289 records · Page 16

Residential Solar-Adopter Income and Demographic Trends: 2023 Update [Slides]

The report describes income, demographic, and other socio-economic trends among U.S. residential rooftop solar adopters. The report is based on address-level data for roughly 3.4 million residential rooftop solar systems installed through 2022, representing 86% of all U.S. systems. With its unique size, geographic scope, and level of detail, this report is intended to serve as a foundational reference document for policy-makers, industry stakeholders, and researchers. Key findings include the following: (1) Median solar adopter income was about $\$117$k/year in 2022, compared to a U.S. median of about $\$69$k/year for all households and $\$86$k/year for all owner-occupied households; (2) The degree of income skew varies significantly across all states, but all exhibit some positive income skew relative to all households in the state, with median solar-adopter incomes ranging from 108-180% of the respective state-median income for all households; (3) Roughly 45% of solar adopters in 2022 had incomes below 120% of their area median income (AMI), a threshold sometimes used to define “low-and-moderate income” (or LMI), while 23% were below 80% of AMI, often used to define “low-income”; (4) Solar adoption continues to shift toward less affluent households, with the median current income of solar adopters dropping from $\$140$k for households that installed systems in 2010 to $\$117$k in 2022; (5) PV systems installed in 2022 by households earning less than $50k had a median size of 6.1 kW, 34% were third-party owned, and 5% included battery storage, compared to corresponding values of 7.6%, 17%, and 15% for households earning more than 200 dollars k; and (6) Compared to all households in their respective state, solar adopters tend to be negligibly more rural; have higher home values; and are more likely to be college educated, identify as non-Hispanic white, live outside a disadvantaged community (DAC), be middle-aged, work in a business or financial occupation, and own a single-family home In conjunction with the report, Berkeley Lab has published an updated accompanying set of online data visualizations that allow users to further explore the underlying data. Berkeley Lab is also offering related analytical support to states, local agencies, and other organizations on issues related to solar adoption among low-to-moderate income households.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Advanced Guide to Understanding Power System Model Results for Long-Term Resource Plans

This guide is for public utility commission staff, state energy office staff, and other stakeholders who review model results for utility integrated resource plans (IRPs). It builds on the "Beginner's Guide to Understanding Power System Model Results for Long-Term Resource Plans," and delves into more advanced topics that were not included or not fully covered in the beginner's guide. The topics included here are evolving and may or may not be important to the resource plan you are evaluating. Due to limitations in resources, it's also not possible to give the highest level of detail or attention to every topic within a plan. An important part of planning for an uncertain future involves deciding which topics deserve the most focus and resources. It's all about prioritizing efforts where they will have the most impact or be most beneficial despite uncertainties ahead. As with the beginner's guide, we intend for this guide to help improve decision-making in the electricity planning process by strengthening understanding and dialogue between electricity system planners and relevant stakeholders. The following information is designed to allow you to better engage in the planning process by evaluating results, asking questions, and thinking through what is most important. We allocate significant discussion in the guide to electricity demand evolution, demand-side resources, and resource adequacy. These topics have garnered increasing attention, hence their prominence in this guide. Other topics are also presented, but their incorporation into the planning process might vary based on interest and relevance. The absence of certain topics doesn't diminish their importance; rather, it reflects the reality that in planning, trade-offs necessitate prioritizing certain aspects over others.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Residential Solar-Adopter Income and Demographic Trends: 2024 Update [Slides]

The report describes income, demographic, and other socio-economic trends among U.S. residential rooftop solar adopters. The report is based on address-level data for roughly 4.1 million residential rooftop solar systems installed through 2023, representing 87% of all U.S. systems. With its unique size, geographic scope, and level of detail, this report is intended to serve as a foundational reference document for policy-makers, industry stakeholders, and researchers. Key findings include the following: -The median income of households that installed solar in 2023 was about $\$$115k/year, compared to a U.S. median of $\$$75k/year for all households and $\$$94k/year for all U.S. owner-occupied households. -Compared to owner-occupied households in the same state, 2023 solar-adopter incomes were 7% higher in the median case, and in 10 states, median solar-adopter incomes were below the corresponding median income for all owner-occupied households. -Roughly 49% of solar adopters in 2023 had incomes below 120% of their area median income (AMI), a threshold sometimes used to define “low-and-moderate income” (or LMI), while 26% were below 80% of AMI, often used to define “low-income”. -Solar adoption continues to shift toward less affluent households over time, with the median present-day income of solar adopters dropping from $\$$141k for households that installed systems in 2010 to $\$$115k in 2023. -PV systems installed in 2023 by households earning less than $\$$50k had a median size of 6.4 kW, 33% were third-party owned, and 6% included battery storage, compared to corresponding values of 8.0 kW, 18%, and 14% for households earning more than $\$$200k. -Compared to all households in their respective state, solar adopters in 2023 were slightly more likely to be college educated and to live in rural areas; had higher home values; and were more likely to live outside a disadvantaged community (DAC), be middle-aged, identify as non-Hispanic white, work in a business or financial occupation, and own a single-family home. In conjunction with the report, Berkeley Lab has published an updated accompanying set of online data visualizations that allow users to further explore the underlying data. Berkeley Lab is also offering related analytical support to states, local agencies, and other organizations on issues related to solar adoption among low-to-moderate income households; requests for analytical support may be submitted through this online form.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

A Review and Comparison of Different Sensitivity Analysis Techniques in Practice

There exist many methods for sensitivity analysis readily available to the practitioner. While each seeks to help the modeler answer the same general question – How do sources of uncertainty or changes in the model inputs relate to uncertainty in the output? – different methods are associated with different assumptions, constraints, and required resources, leading to conclusions that may vary in interpretability and level of detail. Thus, it is crucial that the practitioner selects the desired sensitivity analysis method judiciously, making sure to match the selected approach to the specifics of their problem and to their desired objectives. In this chapter, we provide a practical overview of a collection of widely used, widely available sensitivity analysis methods. We focus on global sensitivity approaches, which seek to characterize how uncertainty in the model output may be allocated to sources of uncertainty in model inputs across the entire input space. Generally, this will require the practitioner to specify a probability distribution over the input space. On the other hand, methods for local sensitivity analysis do not require this specification but they have more limited utility, providing insight into sources of uncertainty associated only with a particular, specified location in the input space. Our hope is that this chapter may serve as a decision-making tool for practitioners, helping to guide the selection of a sensitivity analysis approach that will best fit their needs. To support this goal, we have selected a suite of approaches to cover, which, while not exhaustive, we believe provides a flexible and robust sensitivity analysis toolkit. All methods included are widely used and available in standard software packages.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

COG Software Architecture Design Description Document

This COG Software Architecture Design Description Document describes the organization and functionality of the COG Multiparticle Monte Carlo Transport Code for radiation shielding and criticality calculations, at a level of detail suitable for guiding a new code developer in the maintenance and enhancement of COG. The intended audience also includes managers and scientists and engineers who wish to have a general knowledge of how the code works. This Document is not intended for end-users.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

GridCoPilot for Thermal Events: An LLM-Based Platform for Power Grid Reliability Analysis

Large Language Models show promise for translating natural language into database queries, but deploying such systems in safety-critical domains requires high reliability. We present an application of GridCoPilot to thermal event analysis (heatwaves and coldwaves) that affect power grid reliability. Our approach uses a LangChain SQL Agent to translate natural language queries into auditable SQL statements, with deterministic visualization routines that parse the structured query results. We introduce structural framing as a design principle, we integrate a NERC-region-level event library with county-level meteorology and decompose the combined data into three relational tables (event metadata, county-level event details, and a county-to-NERC subregion mapping), using prompt-guided joins to direct the model toward correct multi-table queries. For two core analytical patterns (identifying worst events by region and by region-year), the system achieved 100% SQL accuracy across all 16 NERC subregions and both event types (64 queries total). These results validate the approach for target use cases, though performance on diverse natural language formulations requires further investigation. We discuss design trade-offs, failure modes including JSON output truncation, and pathways for extending this approach to other hazard domains.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Education for PV Modeling Professionals: Survey of Educators

We report a survey of instructors at universities offering courses that address PV performance modeling. We confirm our earlier finding that most courses lack the level of detail sought by the professional community. We recommend that the PV Performance Modeling Collaborative (PVPMC), or a university, sponsor a committee to produce a curriculum outline for PV system performance modeling, and that the PVPMC solicit industry for well-documented examples of PV system designs and accompany

Hansen, Clifford [Sandia National Laboratories (SN↗

Modeling and simulation to investigate the electrification potential of medium- and heavy-duty vehicle fleets

This project involves developing and integrating new modeling tools to simulate the dynamics of electric medium- and heavy-duty fleet vehicle adoption. A technical and economic modeling tool, combining a data-driven hardware cost model with a cost-optimal charging strategy microsimulation, enables tailored analysis of the costs and benefits of electrifying individual fleets. Next, a novel text synthesis process, applied to a curated corpus of literature, quantifies trade-offs between technical, economic, and other factors in the fleet vehicle procurement decision. The outcomes of these tasks combine with knowledge from recent literature on fleet decision processes to specify the vehicle procurement model used by fleets in an agent-based model of the medium- and heavy-duty electric vehicle market. This model embodies an especially disaggregated approach to adoption modeling, internalizing factors and dynamics that conventional adoption models externalize. In particular, explicitly modeling the formation and diffusion of opinions among agents enables experiments that conventional models cannot support. Demonstrations show, for example, that increasing the extent of interactions between populations with different proclivities to electric vehicles has an asymmetrical outcome. High-proclivity electric vehicle adoption is generally unaffected as interactions increase, but low-proclivity adoption is accelerated. By representing individual fleets' requirements and costs at a high level of detail, incorporating an adoption decision model informed by a wide body of empirical research, and broadening the array of variables and dynamics available for experimentation, this integrated model offers a new way to understand the urgent challenge of eliminating emissions from the most emissions-intensive transportation sectors.

Trinko, David A.↗

Evaluation of BISON metallic fuel performance modeling against experimental measurements within FIPD and IMIS databases

Simulations were conducted using the BISON fuel performance code on an automated process to read initial and operating conditions from two databases—the Fuels Irradiation and Physics Database (FIPD) and Integral Fast Reactor Materials Information System (IMIS) database. These databases contain metallic fuel data from the Experimental Breeder Reactor-II (EBR-II) and the Fast Flux Test Facility (FFTF). The work demonstrates use of an integrated framework to access EBR-II fuel pin data for evaluating fuel performance models contained within BISON to predict fuel performance of next-generation metallic fuel systems. Between IMIS and FIPD, there is enough information to conduct 1,977 unique EBR-II metallic fuel pin histories from 29 different experiments, and 338 pins from FFTF MFF-3 and MFF-5 with varying levels of details between the two databases. Each of these fuel performance histories includes a high-resolution power history, flux history, coolant channel flow rates, and coolant channel temperatures, and new model developments in BISON since the initial demonstration of this integrated framework. Fission gas release (FGR), cumulative damage fraction, fuel axial swelling, FCCI wastage thickness, cladding profilometry, and burnup were all simulated in BISON and compared to post-irradiation examination (PIE) results to evaluate BISON fuel performance modeling. Implementation of new fuel performance models into a generic BISON input file coupled with IMIS and FIPD yielded results with a better representation of physics than the initial evaluation of the integrated framework. Cladding profilometry, FGR, and fuel axial swelling were found to be in good agreement with PIE measurements for most of the pins simulated. The chosen mechanical contact solver was found to significantly impact the axial fuel swelling and cladding strain predictions when used in conjunction with the U-Pu-Zr hot-pressing model since it bound the fuel to prevent further swelling and increased hydrostatic stresses. This work suggests that fuel performance modeling in BISON under steady-state conditions represents the PIE data well and should be reassessed when new PIE data become available in IMIS and FIPD databases and when improved physical models to better capture fuel performance are added to BISON.

Paaren, Kyle M.↗

State-Selective Double Photoionization of Atomic Carbon and Neon

Double photoionization (DPI) allows for a sensitive and direct probe of electron correlation, which governs the structure of all matter. For atoms, much of the work in theory and experiment that informs our fullest understanding of this process has been conducted on helium, and efforts continue to explore many-electron targets with the same level of detail to understand the angular distributions of the ejected electrons in full dimensionality. Expanding on previous results, we consider here the double photoionization of two 2p valence electrons of atomic carbon and neon and explore the possible continuum states that are connected by dipole selection rules to the coupling of the outgoing electrons in 3P, 1D, and 1S initial states of the target atoms. Carbon and neon share these possible symmetries for the coupling of their valence electrons. Results are presented for the energy-sharing single differential cross section (SDCS) and triple differential cross section (TDCS), further elucidating the impact of the initial state symmetry in determining the angular distributions that are impacted by the correlation that drives the DPI process.

Yip, Frank L. (ORCID:000000025409495X)↗

Downregulation of Squalene Synthase Broadly Impacts Isoprenoid Biosynthesis in Guayule

Production of natural rubber by Parthenium argentaum (guayule) requires increased yield for economic sustainability. An RNAi gene silencing strategy was used to engineer isoprenoid biosynthesis by downregulation of squalene synthase (SQS), such that the pool of farnesyl diphosphate (FPP) substrate might instead be available to initiate natural rubber synthesis. Downregulation of SQS resulted in significantly reduced squalene and slightly increased rubber, but not in the same tissues nor to the same extent, partially due to an apparent negative feedback regulatory mechanism that downregulated mevalonate pathway isoprenoid production, presumably associated with excess geranyl pyrophosphate levels. A detailed metabolomics analysis of isoprenoid production in guayule revealed significant differences in metabolism in different tissues, including in active mevalonate and methylerythritol phosphate pathways in stem tissue, where rubber and squalene accumulate. New insights and strategies for engineering isoprenoid production in guayule were identified.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

The CLoud–Aerosol–Radiation Interaction and Forcing: Year 2017 (CLARIFY-2017) measurement campaign

The representations of clouds, aerosols, and cloud–aerosol–radiation impacts remain some of the largest uncertainties in climate change, limiting our ability to accurately reconstruct past climate and predict future climate. The south-east Atlantic is a region where high atmospheric aerosol loadings and semi-permanent stratocumulus clouds are co-located, providing an optimum region for studying the full range of aerosol–radiation and aerosol–cloud interactions and their perturbations of the Earth's radiation budget. While satellite measurements have provided some useful insights into aerosol–radiation and aerosol–cloud interactions over the region, these observations do not have the spatial and temporal resolution, nor the required level of precision to allow for a process-level assessment. Detailed measurements from high spatial and temporal resolution airborne atmospheric measurements in the region are very sparse, limiting their use in assessing the performance of aerosol modelling in numerical weather prediction and climate models. CLARIFY-2017 was a major consortium programme consisting of five principal UK universities with project partners from the UK Met Office and European- and USA-based universities and research centres involved in the complementary ORACLES, LASIC, and AEROCLO-sA projects. The aims of CLARIFY-2017 were fourfold: (1) to improve the representation and reduce uncertainty in model estimates of the direct, semi-direct, and indirect radiative effect of absorbing biomass burning aerosols; (2) to improve our knowledge and representation of the processes determining stratocumulus cloud microphysical and radiative properties and their transition to cumulus regimes; (3) to challenge, validate, and improve satellite retrievals of cloud and aerosol properties and their radiative impacts; (4) to improve the impacts of aerosols in weather and climate numerical models. This paper describes the modelling and measurement strategies central to the CLARIFY-2017 deployment of the FAAM BAe146 instrumented aircraft campaign, summarizes the flight objectives and flight patterns, and highlights some key results from our initial analyses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

TROPOS pyranometer network (PyrNet) observational data set collected during the S2VSR field campaign

During the Small-Scale Variability of Solar Radiation field campaign (S2VSR), a unique sensor network consisting of 60 autonomous pyranometer stations was deployed for a 12-week period at the ARM Southern Great Plains observatory. Stations have been distributed across a 4x4 to 6x6 km2 domain surrounding the Central Facility. Each station has recorded global radiation together with air temperature and relative humidity with a sampling frequency of 1-Hz. The network has provided a data set with an unprecedented level of detail of the small-scale variability of global solar radiation at the surface, resolving fluctuations down to the second- and decameter-scale.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Solid rocket motor cost model

A systematic and standardized procedure for estimating life cycle costs of solid rocket motor booster configurations. The model consists of clearly defined cost categories and appropriate cost equations in which cost is related to program and hardware parameters. Cost estimating relationships are generally based on analogous experience. In this model the experience drawn on is from estimates prepared by the study contractors. Contractors' estimates are derived by means of engineering estimates for some predetermined level of detail of the SRM hardware and program functions of the system life cycle. This method is frequently referred to as bottom-up. A parametric cost analysis is a useful technique when rapid estimates are required. This is particularly true during the planning stages of a system when hardware designs and program definition are conceptual and constantly changing as the selection process, which includes cost comparisons or trade-offs, is performed. The use of cost estimating relationships also facilitates the performance of cost sensitivity studies in which relative and comparable cost comparisons are significant.

Harney, A. G.↗

A system for analysis and classification of voice communications

A method for analysis and classification of verbal communications typically associated with manned space missions or simulations was developed. The study was carried out in two phases. Phase 1 was devoted to identification of crew tasks and activities which require voice communication for accomplishment or reporting. Phase 2 entailed development of a message classification system and a preliminary test of its feasibility. The classification system permits voice communications to be analyzed to three progressively more specific levels of detail and to be described in terms of message content, purpose, and the participants in the information exchange. A coding technique was devised to allow messages to be recorded by an eight-digit number.

Older, H. J.↗

Space shuttle thermal scale modeling application study

The critical thermal control problems and verification of thermal mathematical model results for the space shuttle concept are discussed. The use of a small scale thermal model of the space shuttle is proposed. It was determined that a one-third scale model of the space shuttle would serve as a useful tool throughout the entire thermal design and verification program. The major considerations in modeling the conduction-radiation-convection fields, the level of detail for modeling various systems, preliminary test requirements, and potential applications of the thermal scale model are summarized.

Marshall, K. N.↗

Proposal for hierarchical description of software systems

The programming of digital computers has developed into a new dimension full of diffculties, because the hardware of computers has become so powerful that more complex applications are entrusted to computers. The costs of software development, verification, and maintenance are outpacing those of the hardware and the trend is toward futher increase of sophistication of application of computers and consequently of sophistication of software. To obtain better visibility into software systems and to improve the structure of software systems for better tests, verification, and maintenance, a clear, but rigorous description and documentation of software is needed. The purpose of the report is to extend the present methods in order to obtain a documentation that better reflects the interplay between the various components and functions of a software system at different levels of detail without losing the precision in expression. This is done by the use of block diagrams, sequence diagrams, and cross-reference charts. In the appendices, examples from an actual large sofware system, i.e. the Marshall System for Aerospace Systems Simulation (MARSYAS), are presented. The proposed documentation structure is compatible to automation of updating significant portions of the documentation for better software change control.

Thauboth, H.↗

Shuttle sonic boom - Technology and predictions

Because the shuttle differs significantly in both geometric and operational characteristics from conventional supersonic aircraft, estimation of sonic boom characteristics required a new technology base. The prediction procedures thus developed are reviewed. Flight measurements obtained for both the ascent and entry phases of the Apollo 15 and 16 and for the ascent phase only of the Apollo 17 missions are presented which verify the techniques established for application to shuttle. Results of extensive analysis of the sonic boom overpressure characteristics completed to date are presented which indicate that this factor of the shuttle's environmental impact is predictable, localized, of short duration and acceptable. Efforts are continuing to define the shuttle sonic boom characteristics to a fine level of detail based on the final system design.

Holloway, P. F.↗