Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “learned priors”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 289 records · Page 16
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

A Semi-Automated Approach for Curating a Glossary of Key Terms for Open-Source Data Queries

In FY20, the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) was funded by the National Nuclear Security Administration’s Office of Defense Nuclear Non-Proliferation Research and Development (NA-22) to build a machine learning based modeling pipeline that could extract proliferation events of interest from open text-based data sources. As a test case, the research team targeted the identification/fusion of events and indicators that fissile core fabrication would be executed at the Savannah River Site prior to its official announcement in May of 2018. The demonstration prototype proved successful by applying natural language processing and graph theoretical techniques to identify contextual shifts in key words and phrases that acted as indicators that pit production would be carried out at the Savannah River Site up to two years prior to the official announcement.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗
NASA NTRS2002

Effects of heavy particle irradiation and diet on amphetamine- and lithium chloride-induced taste avoidance learning in rats

Rats were maintained on diets containing either 2% blueberry or strawberry extract or a control diet for 8 weeks prior to being exposed to 1.5 Gy of 56Fe particles in the Alternating Gradient Synchrotron at Brookhaven National Laboratory. Three days following irradiation, the rats were tested for the effects of irradiation on the acquisition of an amphetamine- or lithium chloride-induced (LiCl) conditioned taste avoidance (CTA). The rats maintained on the control diet failed to show the acquisition of a CTA following injection of amphetamine. In contrast, the rats maintained on antioxidant diets (strawberry or blueberry extract) continued to show the development of an amphetamine-induced CTA following exposure to 56Fe particles. Neither irradiation nor diet had an effect on the acquisition of a LiCl-induced CTA. The results are interpreted as indicating that oxidative stress following exposure to 56Fe particles may be responsible for the disruption of the dopamine-mediated amphetamine-induced CTA in rats fed control diets; and that a reduction in oxidative stress produced by the antioxidant diets functions to reinstate the dopamine-mediated CTA. The failure of either irradiation or diet to influence LiCl-induced responding suggests that oxidative stress may not be involved in CTA learning following injection of LiCl.

Non-NASA Center↗
DOE OSTI2022

Comprehensive compartmental model and calibration algorithm for the study of clinical implications of the population-level spread of COVID-19: a study protocol

The complex dynamics of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has made obtaining reliable long-term forecasts of the disease progression difficult. Simple mechanistic models with deterministic parameters are useful for short-term predictions but have ultimately been unsuccessful in extrapolating the trajectory of the pandemic because of unmodelled dynamics and the unrealistic level of certainty that is assumed in the predictions. We propose a 22-compartment epidemiological model that includes compartments not previously considered concurrently, to account for the effects of vaccination, asymptomatic individuals, inadequate access to hospital care, post-acute COVID-19 and recovery with long-term health complications. Additionally, new connections between compartments introduce new dynamics to the system and provide a framework to study the sensitivity of model outputs to several concurrent effects, including temporary immunity, vaccination rate and vaccine effectiveness. Subject to data availability for a given region, we discuss a means by which population demographics (age, comorbidity, socioeconomic status, sex and geographical location) and clinically relevant information (different variants, different vaccines) can be incorporated within the 22-compartment framework. Considering a probabilistic interpretation of the parameters allows the model's predictions to reflect the current state of uncertainty about the model parameters and model states. We propose the use of a sparse Bayesian learning algorithm for parameter calibration and model selection. This methodology considers a combination of prescribed parameter prior distributions for parameters that are known to be essential to the modelled dynamics and automatic relevance determination priors for parameters whose relevance is questionable. This is useful as it helps prevent overfitting the available epidemiological data when calibrating the parameters of the proposed model. Population-level administrative health data will serve as partial observations of the model states.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling household online shopping demand in the U.S.: a machine learning approach and comparative investigation between 2009 and 2017

Despite the rapid growth of online shopping and research interest in the relationship between online and in-store shopping, national-level modeling and investigation of the demand for online shopping with a prediction focus remain limited in the literature. Here, this paper differs from prior work and leverages two recent releases of the U.S. National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) data for 2009 and 2017 to develop machine learning (ML) models, specifically gradient boosting machine (GBM), for predicting household-level online shopping purchases. The NHTS data allow for not only conducting nationwide investigation but also at the level of households, which is more appropriate than at the individual level given the connected consumption and shopping needs of members in a household. We follow a systematic procedure for model development including employing Recursive Feature Elimination algorithm to select input variables (features) in order to reduce the risk of model overfitting and increase model explainability. Among several ML models, GBM is found to yield the best prediction accuracy. Extensive post-modeling investigation is conducted in a comparative manner between 2009 and 2017, including quantifying the importance of each input variable in predicting online shopping demand, and characterizing value-dependent relationships between demand and the input variables. In doing so, two latest advances in machine learning techniques, namely Shapley value-based feature importance and Accumulated Local Effects plots, are adopted to overcome inherent drawbacks of the popular techniques in current ML modeling. The modeling and investigation are performed at the national level, with a number of findings obtained. The models developed and insights gained can be used for online shopping-related freight demand generation and may also be considered for evaluating the potential impact of relevant policies on online shopping demand.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine Learning and Data Science to Advance Laboratory Earthquake Prediction and Illuminate the Mechanics of Precursors to Failure

Earthquakes represent one of our greatest natural hazards and in recent years human induced seismicity is adding to the threat. Even a modest improvement in the ability to forecast devastating large earthquakes or smaller shallow events associated with fluid injection could save thousands of lives and billions of dollars. Current efforts to forecast earthquakes are limited by knowledge of earthquake physics and hampered by a lack of reliable lab or field observations. However, recent work has provided a critical opportunity for advancement. We have found: 1) clear and consistent precursors prior to earthquake-like failure in the laboratory and 2) that lab earthquakes can be predicted using machine learning (ML). These works show that stick-slip failure events –the lab equivalent of earthquakes– are preceded by a cascade of micro-failure events that radiate elastic energy in a manner that foretells catastrophic failure. Remarkably, ML predicts the fault zone stress state, the failure time and in some cases the magnitude of lab earthquakes. In addition, the observations include clear precursors to failure in the form of changes in fault zone properties prior to lab earthquakes. Precursors have been observed in previous laboratory studies but their origin is poorly understood and their possible connection to ML based earthquake prediction is unknown. The work conducted under our project has dramatically expanded these efforts. We have developed an integrated data science approach to illuminate the physics of earthquake precursors and lab earthquake prediction. Our work has accelerated the development of ML, artificial intelligence (AI), and related data science approaches by providing massive data sets that are tightly connected to critical scientific problems and by bringing together leading subject matter experts and data scientists. Earthquake physics involves phenomena that are far from equilibrium. Our work has leveraged data science methods to illuminate these phenomena and investigate how they relate to earthquake prediction. In addition to a large database with many types of labeled events that is available to everyone, our work has advanced the fundamental understanding of seismic forecasting, earthquake physics, and fault rheology

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Boosting the Performance of Plug-and-Play Priors via Denoiser Scaling

Plug-and-play priors (PnP) is an image reconstruction framework that utilizes an image denoiser as an imaging prior. Unlike traditional regularized inversion, PnP does not require the prior to be expressible in the form of a regularization function. This flexibility enables PnP algorithms to exploit the most effective image denoisers, leading to their state-of-the-art performance in various imaging tasks. However, many powerful denoisers, such as the ones based on convolutional neural networks (CNNs), do not have tunable parameters that would allow controlling their influence within PnP. To address this issue, in this paper, we introduce a scaling parameter that adjusts the magnitude of the denoiser input and output. We theoretical justify the denoiser scaling from the perspectives of proximal optimization, statistical estimation, and consensus equilibrium. Finally, we provide numerical experiments demonstrating the ability of denoiser scaling to systematically improve the performance of PnP for denoising CNN priors that do not have explicitly tunable parameters.

Boosting↗
DOE OSTI2022

Inferring safety critical events from vehicle kinematics in naturalistic driving environment: Application of deep learning Algorithms

Advances in sensing technology has enabled the collection of countless terabytes of second-by-second kinematics data. Such data provides opportunities for real-time monitoring of driving behavior and identification of safety critical events (SCEs) including crashes and near crashes. The concept of volatility is relevant in this context, which identifies instability and erratic variations in driving behavior prior to involvement in SCEs. This study utilized vehicle kinematics from a large-scale naturalistic driving data to develop a deep learning approach based on 1D convolutional neural networks (CNN) for inferring SCEs. The data are unique in the sense that such accurate pre-crash data at high fidelity are not available in traditional crash repositories. This study contributes to the literature by providing a first attempt at predicting responses to SCEs by developing deep learning-based CNN architectures using novel driving volatility based kinematic thresholds for a sample of 9553 events. The key contribution lies in developing a volatility-based CNN input layout that is acceptable to CNN schemes and represents the motion kinematics such as speed, acceleration and volatility measures. Several 1D-CNN architectures were developed using layers, numbers of convolutions, layer patterns, and kernels. Shallow and deep architectures were tested, revealing higher accuracy of shallow architectures in detecting SCEs. The optimal number of epochs were identified using an early stopping method while the CNN performance was improved by increasing the number of epochs. The ensemble CNN had the highest predictive accuracy of 95.6% for detection of crashes and near crashes, which was 2.5% higher than the optimal CNN using 20% hold out test data. The ensemble CNN also outperformed classical machine learning models and model performance reported in past studies on detection of SCEs. Finally, these results have implications for identification of safety hotspots and providing real-time alerts and warnings in connected and highly automated vehicle environment including society of automotive engineers levels 3–5.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

AstroAmpSeq: Microbial Bioinformatics Education with NASA GeneLab’s Amplicon Pipeline

The prevalence and importance of large sequencing datasets in microbiology has led to a movement to share microbial ecology experimental data through open-access databases. This is particularly true of experiments that are difficult to replicate, such as those conducted in the spaceflight environment and shared via NASA GeneLab. It is now possible and indeed valuable for students to access and re-analyze these shared datasets for educational and research purposes. To provide students with experience utilizing microbial bioinformatics tools, GeneLab for Colleges and Universities (GL4U) has designed AstroAmpSeq, a week-long, virtually implemented project-based learning (PBL) minicourse to instruct undergraduate students on 16S amplicon sequencing. AstroAmpSeq was created to be accessible to students without prior bioinformatics or microbial ecology experience. During the minicourse students work in teams to process, analyze, and visualize a subsample of GeneLab dataset GLDS-280 using GeneLab’s standard amplicon processing pipeline, which is based in R. Students develop a hypothesis related to the dataset then generate and analyze figures to evaluate their hypothesis. Formative assessment of student learning is determined via pre- and post-evaluations, peer feedback, and self-reflection. Project and presentation rubrics serve as a summative assessment of student learning. GL4U AstroAmpSeq not only meets American Society for Microbiology Curriculum Guidelines, but also incites student interest in research by an inquiry-based approach and can be made part of a larger semester-long curriculum. GL4U AstroAmpSeq raises awareness of space microbiology and bioinformatics as a field and career path among undergraduates. Further, by using a GeneLab dataset and nesting microbiology techniques into the real-world application of space biology, AstroAmpSeq enforces deeper and longer-lasting student learning.

microbiology↗
DOE OSTI2020

Optimization-based control using input convex neural networks

Input convex neural networks (ICNNs) are a family of deep learning models where the outputs are constructed to be convex functions of the inputs. By parameterizing system models using ICNNs, optimization-based control problems can be solved as convex optimization problems, leading to improved performance and robustness. This work proposes a novel framework where the control objective function and constraints are modelled using ICNNs. A case study of optimization-based control with output constraints is conducted on a process with input multiplicity and nonminimum phase behavior. The simulation results demonstrate improved economic yield compared with normal neural networks. Additionally, the input convexity formulation is compared with simple regularization techniques, and unique benefits such as improved data efficiency and robustness of the proposed formulation are shown. Finally, by explicitly incorporating prior knowledge about convexity, this framework provides a good balance between the universal approximation power of deep learning and computational feasibility required by control.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainty Aware Deep Learning for Fault Prediction Using Multivariate Time Series Signals

The superconducting radio-frequency cavities are a crucial component of the Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF) at Jefferson Lab. When a cavity faults, beam delivery to experimental end users is disrupted. Prediction of cavity faults prior to onset is essential to reduce operation and maintenance costs. In this work, a parallel long short-term memory (LSTM)-convolution neural network (CNN)-based deep learning (DL) model is proposed to predict impending faults using pre-fault signals. Further, we introduce an uncertainty quantification approach using Monte Carlo dropout with the LSTM-CNN model to ascertain confidence in the prediction. The model was tested using multivariate time series signals from stable cavity operations and before faults. Initial results show that on the test dataset, the model can identify impending faults before their onset with an average 10-fold cross validation accuracy of 97.39% and a standard deviation of 0.12% using a 100-ms time window. It is also observed that the model performs better as the prediction time moves closer to the fault onset. For additional context, we compare the performance of the model with three machine-learning-based (ML) fault prediction models. Our proposed parallel LSTM-CNN-based DL method shows better performance than the ML-based methods.

Rahman, Md Monibor↗
DOE OSTI2024

AI-NERD: Elucidation of relaxation dynamics beyond equilibrium through AI-informed X-ray photon correlation spectroscopy

Abstract Understanding and interpreting dynamics of functional materials in situ is a grand challenge in physics and materials science due to the difficulty of experimentally probing materials at varied length and time scales. X-ray photon correlation spectroscopy (XPCS) is uniquely well-suited for characterizing materials dynamics over wide-ranging time scales. However, spatial and temporal heterogeneity in material behavior can make interpretation of experimental XPCS data difficult. In this work, we have developed an unsupervised deep learning (DL) framework for automated classification of relaxation dynamics from experimental data without requiring any prior physical knowledge of the system. We demonstrate how this method can be used to accelerate exploration of large datasets to identify samples of interest, and we apply this approach to directly correlate microscopic dynamics with macroscopic properties of a model system. Importantly, this DL framework is material and process agnostic, marking a concrete step towards autonomous materials discovery.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1984

Holographic aids for internal combustion engine flow studies

Worldwide interest in improving the fuel efficiency of internal combustion (I.C.) engines has sparked research efforts designed to learn more about the flow processes of these engines. The flow fields must be understood prior to fuel injection in order to design efficient valves, piston geometries, and fuel injectors. Knowledge of the flow field is also necessary to determine the heat transfer to combustion chamber surfaces. Computational codes can predict velocity and turbulence patterns, but experimental verification is mandatory to justify their basic assumptions. Due to their nonintrusive nature, optical methods are ideally suited to provide the necessary velocity verification data. Optical sytems such as Schlieren photography, laser velocimetry, and illuminated particle visualization are used in I.C. engines, and now their versatility is improved by employing holography. These holographically enhanced optical techniques are described with emphasis on their applications in I.C. engines.

Regan, C.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Graphical User Interface Development for Representing Air Flow Patterns

In the Turbine Branch, scientists carry out experimental and computational work to advance the efficiency and diminish the noise production of jet engine turbines. One way to do this is by decreasing the heat that the turbine blades receive. Most of the experimental work is carried out by taking a single turbine blade and analyzing the air flow patterns around it, because this data indicates the sections of the turbine blade that are getting too hot. Since the cost of doing turbine blade air flow experiments is very high, researchers try to do computational work that fits the experimental data. The goal of computational fluid dynamics is for scientists to find a numerical way to predict the complex flow patterns around different turbine blades without physically having to perform tests or costly experiments. When visualizing flow patterns, scientists need a way to represent the flow conditions around a turbine blade. A researcher will assign specific zones that surround the turbine blade. In a two-dimensional view, the zones are usually quadrilaterals. The next step is to assign boundary conditions which define how the flow enters or exits one side of a zone. way of setting up computational zones and grids, visualizing flow patterns, and storing all the flow conditions in a file on the computer for future computation. Such a program is necessary because the only method for creating flow pattern graphs is by hand, which is tedious and time-consuming. By using a computer program to create the zones and grids, the graph would be faster to make and easier to edit. Basically, the user would run a program that is an editable graph. The user could click and drag with the mouse to form various zones and grids, then edit the locations of these grids, add flow and boundary conditions, and finally save the graph for future use and analysis. My goal this summer is to create a graphical user interface (GUI) that incorporates all of these elements. I am writing the program in Java, a language that is portable among platforms, because it can run on different operating systems such as Windows and Unix without having to be rewritten. I had no prior experience of programming in Java at the start of my internship; I am continuously learning as I create the program. I have written the part of the program that enables a user to draw several zones, edit them, and store their locations. The next phase of my project is to allow the user to click on the side of a zone and create a boundary condition for it. A previous intern wrote a program that allows the user to input boundary conditions. I can integrate the two programs to create a larger, more usable program. After that, I will develop a way for the user to save the graph for future reference. Another eventual goal is to make the GUI capable of creating three-dimensional zones as well. Researchers such as my mentor, Dr. David Ashpis, need a quick, user-friendly

Chaudhary, Nilika↗
NASA NTRS2006

Near-Miss Evaluation Bias as an Obstacle to Organizational Learning: Lessons from NASA

After the Shuttle Columbia catastrophe, the investigation board (CAIB) stated that NASA needs to develop a "learning culture", meaning a capability to learn from past failures by understanding the technical and organizational causes of these mistakes (CAIB report, 2003). While many organizations learn from obvious failures, we argue that it is harder for organizations to learn from near-miss events (i.e., situations where a failure does not occur but nearly did), because these near-misses are processed as successes. For the shuttle program, prior debris problems could have caused a similar failure as on the Columbia mission except that the large pieces missed the highly sensitive portions of the orbiter. This acceptance of foam debris was adopted as a normal occurrence by the shuttle program managers similar to the problems at the time of the Challenger Disaster (detailed in Vaughan, 1996). We extend that work to show that an outcome bias influences people's evaluation of project managers, such that managers of failed missions were perceived more poorly than managers who made the same decisions but whose mission ended in either success or a near-miss. The similarity of ratings between the near-miss and success condition imply that even when a problem occurs that is clearly linked to prior managerial decisions, if the project is not harmed because of good luck, that manager is not held accountable for faculty decision making and neither the individual manager nor the organization learn from the experience potentially increasing the likelihood of a failure in the future.

Dillon, Robin L.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Estimating groundwater use and demand in arid Kenya through assimilation of satellite data and in-situ sensors with machine learning toward drought early action

Groundwater is an important source of water for people, livestock, and agriculture during drought in the Horn of Africa. In this work, areas of high groundwater use and demand in drought-prone Kenya were identified and forecasted prior to the dry season. Estimates of groundwater use were extended from a sentinel network of 69 in-situ sensored mechanical boreholes to the region with satellite data and a machine learning model. The sensors contributed 756 site-month observations from June 2017 to September 2021 for model building and validation at a density of approximately one sensor per 3700 sq.km. An ensemble of 19 parameterized algorithms was informed by features including satellite-derived precipitation, surface water availability, vegetation indices, hydrologic land surface modeling, and site characteristics to dichotomize high groundwater pump utilization. Three operational definitions of high demand on groundwater infrastructure were considered: 1) mechanical runtime of pumps greater than a quarter of a day (6+ hr) and daily per capita volume extractions indicative of 2) domestic water needs (35+ L), and 3) intermediate needs including livestock (75+ L). Gridded interpolation of localized groundwater use and demand was provided from 2017 to 2020 and forecasted for the 2021 dry season, June–September 2021. Cross-validated skill for contemporary estimates of daily pump runtime and daily volume extraction to meet domestic and intermediate water needs was 68%, 69%, and 75%, respectively. Forecasts were externally validated with an accuracy of at least 56%, 70%, or 72% for each groundwater use definition. The groundwater maps are accessible to stakeholders including the Kenya National Drought Management Authority (NDMA) and the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET). These maps represent the first operational spatially-explicit sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) estimates of groundwater use and demand in the literature. Knowledge of historical and forecasted groundwater use is anticipated to improve decision-making and resource allocation for a range of early warning early action applications.

Katie Fankhauser↗
DOE OSTI2020

How accurate is a machine learning-based wind speed extrapolation under a round-robin approach?

As the size of commercial wind turbines keeps increasing, having accurate ways to vertically extrapolate wind speed is essential to obtain a precise characterization of the wind resource for wind energy production. Recently, machine learning has been proposed and applied to extrapolate wind speed to hub heights. However, previous studies trained and tested the machine learning methods at the same site, giving them an unfair advantage over the conventional extrapolation techniques, which are instead more universal. Here, we use data from four sites in Oklahoma to test a round-robin validation approach for machine learning, under which we train a random forest at a site, and test it at a different site, where the model has no prior knowledge of the wind resource. We quantify how the accuracy of this technique varies with distance from the training site, and we find that it outperforms conventional techniques for wind extrapolation at all the considered spatial separations. We then assess how the accuracy of the machine-learning based approach varies when it is used to predict wind speed in a wind farm far wake. Finally, we explore as case study the performance of the random forest in extrapolating winds during a low-level jet event.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2014

Fifteen Years of Chandra Operation: Scientific Highlights and Lessons Learned

NASA's Chandra X-Ray Observatory, designed for three years of operation with a goal of five years is now entering its 15-th year of operation. Thanks to its superb angular resolution, the Observatory continues to yield new and exciting results, many of which were totally unanticipated prior to launch. We discuss the current technical status, review recent scientific highlights, indicate a few future directions, and present what we feel is the most important lesson learned from our experience of building and operating this great observatory.

Weisskopf, Martin C.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Photodiode-based machine learning for optimization of laser powder bed fusion parameters in complex geometries

We report the quality of parts produced through laser powder bed fusion additive manufacturing can be irregular, with complex geometries sometimes exhibiting dimensional inaccuracies and defects. For optimal part quality, laser process parameters should be selected carefully prior to printing and adjusted during the print if necessary. This is challenging since approaches to control and optimize the build parameters need to take into account the part geometry, the material, and the complex physics of laser powder bed fusion. This work describes a data-driven approach using experimental diagnostics for the optimization of laser process parameters prior to printing. A training dataset is generated by collecting high speed photodiode signal data while printing simple parts containing key geometry features with various process parameter strategies. Supervised learning approaches are employed to train both a forward model and an inverse model. The forward model takes as inputs track-wise geometry features and laser parameters and outputs the photodiode signal along the scan path. The inverse model takes as inputs the geometry features and photodiode signal and predicts the laser parameters. Given the part geometry and a desired photodiode signal, the inverse model can thus determine the required laser parameters. Two test parts which contain defect-prone features are used to assess the validity of the inverse model. The use of the model leads to improved part quality (higher dimensional accuracy, reduced dross, reduced distortion) for both test geometries.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗