Plate motions and deformations from geologic and geodetic data
An analysis of geodetic data in the vicinity of the Crustal Dynamics Program (CDP) site at Vandenberg Air Force Base (VNDN) is presented. The utility of space-geodetic data in the monitoring of transient strains associated with earthquakes in tectonically active areas like California is investigated. Particular interest is in the possibility that space-geodetic methods may be able to provide critical new data on deformations precursory to large seismic events. Although earthquake precursory phenomena are not well understood, the monitoring of small strains in the vicinity of active faults is a promising technique for studying the mechanisms that nucleate large earthquakes and, ultimately, for earthquake prediction. Space-geodetic techniques are now capable of measuring baselines of tens to hundreds of kilometers with a precision of a few parts in 108. Within the next few years, it will be possible to record and analyze large-scale strain variations with this precision continuously in real time. Thus, space-geodetic techniques may become tools for earthquake prediction. In anticipation of this capability, several questions related to the temporal and spatial scales associated with subseismic deformation transients are examined.