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At least 289 records · Page 16

Challenges and alternatives to empirical orthogonal functions for earth system data

Empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) applied to gridded Earth system data enables users to diagnose modes of variability with relative ease. Yet, many challenges to interpretation exist such that they must be used with awareness and intention when applied to gridded climate data, especially with large ensembles. Utilizing data from two different Earth system modelling large ensemble frameworks, the Energy Exoscale Earth System Model and the Community Earth System Model, as well as reanalysis data, common EOF pitfalls are summarized and discussed. Challenges include erroneous mode swapping, sign flipping, and the temporal variability of the centers of action. For modes of variability with similar contribution to variance, mode swapping is not uncommon. Sign flipping can occur with almost any mode where the pattern is correct, but the sign is arbitrary. Although the variability of the center of action is not necessarily problematic, it potentially complicates interpretation over multi-century timescales. A wide variety of alternative methods to EOFs exist, but fitness-for-purpose must be evaluated. Additionally, illustrations of alternative methods and examples of proper use are provided. Alternative methods fit into three categories: EOF variants, linear methods, and multilinear methods.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Numerical-heating effects in atmospheric pressure streamer discharges simulated with a PIC code

Artificial heating in plasma simulations is a well-known phenomenon which occurs when, among other things, the Debye length is poorly resolved by the simulation mesh. Here, in this work, the degree to which numerical-heating occurs during a simulation of a nanosecond atmospheric pressure streamer discharge is examined. The streamer is simulated using a two-dimensional finite-element, particle-in-cell code Empire, which uses direct simulation Monte Carlo for binary particle interactions. Initially, an estimate of the numerical-heating rate applied to Empire is performed using a simple plasma model. Second, a positive atmospheric pressure streamer discharge simulation is performed to study the effects of numerical heating on plasma density, electron temperature, and streamer velocity. The nominal Debye length is approximately 1 μm and the amount of numerical heating introduced in the simulation is varied by using mesh sizes ranging from 2 μm to 20 μm. A measurable numerical heating quantity is proposed that can be used to estimate the appropriate element size and quantify the numerical-heating that can be expected over the simulation time for an atmospheric pressure streamer. In conclusion while Δx/λ D violations can be an issue it is not likely to be an issue with streamer discharges that are temporally short and occur in environments where collision frequencies are high. This result validates the rationale of grid size choices for a large amount of previously published works where Δx/λ D violation was not clearly addressed. Primary finding of this work is that numerical heating is of minor concern for plasma simulations where electron–neutral collisions are numerous such that multiple collisions can occur within a single plasma period.

Nikic, Dejan [University of New Mexico, Albuquerqu↗

Emulation of seismic-phase traveltimes with machine learning

SUMMARY We present a machine learning (ML) method for emulating seismic-phase traveltimes that are computed using a global-scale 3-D earth model and physics-based ray tracing. Accurate traveltime predictions based on 3-D earth models are known to reduce the bias of event location estimates, increase our ability to assign phase labels to seismic detections and associate detections to events. However, practical use of 3-D models is challenged by slow computational speed and the unwieldiness of pre-computed lookup tables that are often large and have prescribed computational grids. In this work, we train a ML emulator using pre-computed traveltimes, resulting in a compact and computationally fast way to approximate traveltimes that are based on a 3-D earth model. Our model is trained using approximately 850 million P-wave traveltimes that are based on the global LLNL-G3D-JPS model, which was developed for more accurate event location. The training-set consists of traveltimes between 10 393 global seismic stations and randomly sampled event locations that provide a prescribed, distance-dependent geographic sample density for each station. Prediction accuracy is dependent on event-station distance and whether the station was included in the training set. For stations included in the training set the mean absolute deviation (MAD) of the difference between traveltimes computed using ray tracing through the 3-D model and the ML emulator for local, regional, and teleseismic distances are 0.090, 0.125 and 0.121 s, respectively. For tested station locations not included in the training set, MAD values for the three distance ranges increase to 0.173, 0.219 and 0.210 s, respectively. Empirical traveltime residuals for a global reference data are indistinguishable when ML emulation or the 3-D model is used to compute traveltimes. This result holds regardless of whether the recording station is used in ML training or not.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Optimization-Based Deconfliction of Distribution System Applications

Power distribution systems are transitioning towards a future with large numbers of controllable grid-edge devices and distributed generation, as well as more complex operational objectives. This evolution requires a new distribution management approach, and modular applications can play a significant role. Thus, new strategies to coordinate independent applications with diverging operational goals are necessary. In this paper, we propose a novel optimization-based deconflictor to facilitate coordination in future advanced distribution management systems.

application deconfliction, power system optimizati↗

Toward Polydisperse Flows With MFIX-EXA

In the presence of large size disparities, single-grid neighbor search algorithms lead to inflated neighbor lists that significantly degrade the performance of Lagrangian particle solvers. If Eulerian–Lagrangian (EL) frameworks are to remain performant when simulating realistic systems, improved neighbor detection approaches must be adopted. To this end, we consider the application of a multigrid neighbor search (MGNS) algorithm in the mfix-exa software package, an exascale EL solver built upon the AMReX library. Here, details regarding the implementation and verification of MGNS are provided along with speedup curves for a bidisperse mixing layer. MGNS is shown to yield up to 15$\times$ speedup on CPU and 6$\times$ speedup on GPU for the problems considered here. The mfix-exa software is then validated for a variety of polydisperse flows. Finally, a brief discussion is given for how dynamic MGNS may be completed, with application to spatially varying particle size distributions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

High-Efficiency, Medium-Voltage-Input, Solid-State-Transformer-Based 400-kW/1000V/400A Extreme Fast Charger for Electric Vehicles

Range anxiety and long battery charging time continue to be critical challenges to mass adaptation of EVs. A major identified gap to wider adoption of BEVs is the ability and availability to refuel quickly or to fast charge. Studies have shown that in areas where drivers have access to 50-kW or 120-kW fast charge stations, annual electric vehicle (EV) miles traveled (i.e., eVMT) increased by over 25%, even in cases where fast charging was used for 1% to 5% of total charging events. Charge stations of higher power not only alleviate the “range anxiety” and reduce the driver’s waiting time, but also requires less investment. Michigan Energy Office completed a study in early 2019 titled “Electric Vehicle Charger Placement Optimization in Michigan: Phase I – Highways”. This study finds a system with 150kW chargers, though more expensive individually, actually has lower total system cost when compared to a 50kW charging system when serving the same battery size EV. To be truly competitive to the ICEV refueling experience, even higher power stations are necessary. However, high power charge stations would create large power draws from the grid. If this occurs during peak demand periods, grid capacity could be overloaded. This problem needs to be addressed to reduce the impact on the electric utility infrastructure. The main goal of this project is to develop a 400-kW/400-A XFC system targeting total efficiency of 96.5 percent from the MVAC grid to a vehicle. The novel SST power cell topology, combined with a new silicon carbide (SiC) MOSFET device, enables a 3.5 percent improvement in system efficiency, a 50-percent smaller equipment footprint, and four times less weight than today’s DCFC systems. The SST technology would directly utilize MVAC at 4.8-kV or 13.2-kV. This would eliminate the line frequency transformer (LFT), which steps down medium-voltage AC to 3-Phase 480-V line-to-line voltage in current DCFC systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Impact of synchronous condensers on fault location and black start in multi-inverter isolated microgrids

Synchronous condensers have been used in power systems for decades, but they are now attracting interest as a potential means for solving certain issues associated with inverter-based resources in islanded power systems. They have been extensively studied in applications to large wind farms and weak grids, but there has been very little study of synchronous condensers in intentionally-islanded systems, and especially self-healing ones. This report documents the results of an LDRD project intended to create modeling tools for use in the study of synchronous condensers in these smaller off-grid systems, and to explore synchronous condensers in this application. The results indicate that synchronous condensers have the potential to provide many benefits, but there are also several unanswered questions and technical challenges requiring further study.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Opportunities in Hydropower and Pumped Storage Hydropower

Hydropower and pumped storage hydropower (PSH) are established technologies with a long-standing presence in the United States, but the industry remains dynamic with an active relicensing pipeline and growing interest in PSH to provide large-scale energy storage and grid services. NLR has developed a range of tools, data, and analysis that supports the evaluation of hydropower and PSH opportunities, complementing other DOE-supported efforts in this space. This presentation initiates a conversation around the future of hydropower and PSH and how it can inform the National Academy of Sciences investigation of possible DOE-supported regional energy-water technology pilots.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Enhancing the representation of water management in global hydrological models

Abstract. This study enhances an existing global hydrological model (GHM), Xanthos, by adding a new water management module that distinguishes between the operational characteristics of irrigation, hydropower, and flood control reservoirs. We remapped reservoirs in the Global Reservoir and Dam (GRanD) database to the 0.5∘ spatial resolution in Xanthos so that a single lumped reservoir exists per grid cell, which yielded 3790 large reservoirs. We implemented unique operation rules for each reservoir type, based on their primary purposes. In particular, hydropower reservoirs have been treated as flood control reservoirs in previous GHM studies, while here, we determined the operation rules for hydropower reservoirs via optimization that maximizes long-term hydropower production. We conducted global simulations using the enhanced Xanthos and validated monthly streamflow for 91 large river basins, where high-quality observed streamflow data were available. A total of 1878 (296 hydropower, 486 irrigation, and 1096 flood control and others) out of the 3790 reservoirs are located in the 91 basins and are part of our reported results. The Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) value (after adding the new water management) is ≥ 0.5 and ≥ 0.0 in 39 and 81 basins, respectively. After adding the new water management module, model performance improved for 75 out of 91 basins and worsened for only 7. To measure the relative difference between explicitly representing hydropower reservoirs and representing hydropower reservoirs as flood control reservoirs (as is commonly done in other GHMs), we use the normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) and the coefficient of determination (R2). Out of the 296 hydropower reservoirs, the NRMSE is > 0.25 (i.e., considering 0.25 to represent a moderate difference) for over 44 % of the 296 reservoirs when comparing both the simulated reservoir releases and storage time series between the two simulations. We suggest that correctly representing hydropower reservoirs in GHMs could have important implications for our understanding and management of freshwater resource challenges at regional-to-global scales. This enhanced global water management modeling framework will allow the analysis of future global reservoir development and management from a coupled human–earth system perspective.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Use of Machine Learning on PMU Data for Transmission System Fault Analysis

Synchrophasor technology has been used for monitoring, control, and protection of bulk power system for over 10 years. Deployment of phasor measurement units (PMUs) in the USA power system has surpassed 3000 units installed in the transmission substations as stand-alone intelligent electronic devices (IEDs) or as a software add-on to other devices such as digital protective relays (DPRs) or digital fault recorders (DFRs). By now, thousands of terabytes of PMU data may have been captured and stored by various transmission system operators (TSOs) and independent system operators (ISOs). This creates an opportunity to deploy advanced machine learning (ML) techniques to detect and classify faults recorded by PMUs automatically to be used by the system operators for rapid, critical decision-making when manual analysis of the past or unfolding events is not feasible. In this paper we offer a brief background on how the automated fault analysis may be done using DPR and/or DFR data, and compare some of the legacy approaches to the new ML approaches in the context of the system-wide PMU recordings. We then offer insights from developing practical ML solutions that have been applied on field recordings captured by close to 450 PMUs from all three US interconnections (Western, Eastern and ERCOT) over two years (2016-2017). We identify and illustrate ML challenges we addressed: inaccurate data, data with scarce and temporally imprecise fault labels, data recorded by PMUs sparsely located at substations resulting in the fault records taken afar from the ends of the faulted lines, data containing only positive sequence values, and data taken at different voltage levels. We then illustrate the ML model results for fault analysis under different application scenarios. The novelty of this study is not only in the design, implementation, and performance analysis of the ML algorithms, but also in the use of advanced fault modelling and simulation approaches to improve the training results when developing supervised ML models for fault detection and classification. Extensive simulations of faults were conducted on a 14-bus power system to create a training dataset with over 1400 accurately labelled faults. This dataset was applied to enhance the accuracy of fault detection and classification of machine learning-based models trained with small number of labelled faults in large datasets recorded in the grid interconnections ranging from 5,000 to 70,000 buses.

Synchrophasors, Machine Learning, Fault Analysis, ↗

An Open-Source Parallel EMT Simulation Framework: Preprint

As the integration level of inverter-based resources (IBR) increases, ensuring the reliable operation of the bulk power systems requires the use of electromagnetic transient (EMT) simulation tools to identify and mitigate system-wide stability risks. Conducting EMT studies for large-scale, IBR-rich grids, however, is challenging due to the inherent computational bottleneck caused by the underlying high-fidelity models and required small time steps. This paper introduces ParaEMT: an open-source, generic EMT simulation framework designed to accelerate simulations by leveraging advanced parallel computational technologies, such as high-performance computers. This paper presents a comprehensive exposition of ParaEMT, covering its modeling library, simulation strategy, framework structure, operational procedures, and auxiliary features, alongside its extensible parallel computational architecture. Notably, ParaEMT is a publicly accessible and modularized framework written in Python, thereby facilitating future development and the integration of new models and algorithms. The accuracy and efficiency of ParaEMT are demonstrated by rigorous validations via multiple case studies.

electromagnetic transient simulation↗

Existing Methods for Grid Strength Assessment and Role of Hydropower in Future Grids

The power system is undergoing rapid evolution with increasing penetration of inverter-based resources (IBRs), large loads, microgrids, and power electronic devices. Ensuring reliable and stable operation of the modern power grid is a multi-faceted challenge that requires detailed understanding of this complex system. Dynamic stability is a major concern in maintaining the security of power grids as the generation mixes and large loads transitions to include high shares of power electronic devices. The operation of IBRs in regions with low system strength and higher grid impedances has been found to be the main reason behind many of the power system instabilities that manifest themselves in various types of oscillations and interactions that, if not properly addressed and damped, can jeopardize the reliable operation of the power system. Weak grid conditions compound such stability problems, particularly when many IBRs operate in proximity to and connect to weak power grids. Therefore, it is important to assess grid strength for planning, integration and operation of IBRs for a given power system. In this report, we aim to understand and classify existing methodologies for grid strength assessment, along with their limitations and future needs. Further, we aim to utilize the huge untapped potential in utilizing hydro energy resources in addressing some of the pertinent challenges of grid strength and reliable operation of modern power systems. Hydropower, historically valued for its flexibility and dispatchability, now faces new constraints due to reduced share of synchronous machines in the generation mix and seasonal variability of available water resources. Yet, these same plants present untapped potential beyond energy generation - notably, as providers of critical grid services. This report explores how hydropower plants, particularly through operation as synchronous condensers, can play a pivotal role in strengthening the grid amid evolving system dynamics.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

A mapped dataset of surface ocean acidification indicators in large marine ecosystems of the United States

Mapped monthly data products of surface ocean acidification indicators from 1998 to 2022 on a 0.25° by 0.25° spatial grid have been developed for eleven U.S. large marine ecosystems (LMEs). The data products were constructed using observations from the Surface Ocean CO 2 Atlas, co-located surface ocean properties, and two types of machine learning algorithms: Gaussian mixture models to organize LMEs into clusters of similar environmental variability and random forest regressions (RFRs) that were trained and applied within each cluster to spatiotemporally interpolate the observational data. The data products, called RFR-LMEs, have been averaged into regional timeseries to summarize the status of ocean acidification in U.S. coastal waters, showing a domain-wide carbon dioxide partial pressure increase of 1.4 ± 0.4 μatm yr -1 and pH decrease of 0.0014 ± 0.0004 yr -1 . RFR-LMEs have been evaluated via comparisons to discrete shipboard data, fixed timeseries, and other mapped surface ocean carbon chemistry data products. Regionally averaged timeseries of RFR-LME indicators are provided online through the NOAA National Marine Ecosystem Status web portal.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Metrics for Evaluating Grid Service Provision from Communities of Grid-interactive and Efficient Buildings and other DER

Tapping into the flexibility of aggregations of Grid-interactive and Efficiency Buildings (GEBs) represent a large opportunity to cost-effectively improve operations in future low-carbon power grids. The US Department of Energy's Connected Communities program seeks to demonstrate collections of these GEBs at 10 different sites across the country. However, consistent metrics for evaluation across all projects are needed to build confidence in the approach. This paper presents the metrics relating to Grid Service Provision that will be computed at the 10 demonstrations. The metrics proposed quantity the magnitude of service offers, the consistency and quality of services provided by the community, and the individual DER contributions to the community-level service. The goal of this work is to present these metrics and describe some of their intended insights. The hope is that these insights will be useful and build confidence for grid operators, regulators, and aggregators and practitioners as they look to deploy these resources in grids of the future.

MacDonald, Jason S↗

Networked HIL Simulation System for Modeling Large-scale Power Systems

This paper presents a networked hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) simulation system for modeling large-scale power systems. Researchers have developed many HIL test systems for power systems in recent years. Those test systems can model both microsecond-level dynamic responses of power electronic systems and millisecond-level transients of transmission and distribution grids. By integrating individual HIL test systems into a network of HIL test systems, we can create large-scale power grid digital twins with flexible structures at required modeling resolution that fits for a wide range of system operating conditions. This will not only significantly reduce the need for field tests when developing new technologies but also greatly shorten the model development cycle. In this paper, we present a networked OPAL-RT based HIL test system for developing transmission-distribution coordinative Volt-VAr regulation technologies as an example to illustrate system setups, communication requirements among different HIL simulation systems, and system connection mechanisms. Impacts of communication delays, information exchange cycles, and computing delays are illustrated. Simulation results show that the performance of a networked HIL test system is satisfactory.

Xie, Fuhong↗

Demand Response Potential from the Bulk Grid Perspective

Gain insight from an exploration of the potential value of demand response (DR) in future power systems. Using hourly DR resource estimates by sub-sector, electrical end-use, and grid service, we incorporate virtual generator models of DR resources into large-scale production cost models, and analyze the grid-level impacts in terms of the ability of DR to reduce system costs and potentially help integrate renewables or reduce system emissions. Additionally, we examine the value of DR, its revenue, and how these change under different system conditions. In this panel session, we will describe our input data and modeling methods, provide an overview of the production cost models used, and summarize key results from analyses in Florida and the western United States. Findings include variations in DR value by end-use and geography, an ability to increase economic PV deployment potential in high penetration systems, and mixed emissions outcomes depending on system composition and fuel prices.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗