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At least 289 records · Page 16

Historical and future trends in South Asian monsoon low pressure systems in a high-resolution model ensemble

Historical trends in monsoon low pressure systems (LPS), the dominant rain-bearing weather system of South Asia, have been difficult to assess due to changes in the observing network. Future projections have also remained uncertain because prior studies concluded that many coarse-resolution climate models do not accurately simulate LPS. Here, we examine changes in South Asian monsoon LPS simulated by an ensemble of global models, including some with high spatial resolution, that we show skillfully represent LPS. In the ensemble mean, the number of strong LPS (monsoon depressions) decreased over the last 65 years (1950–2014) by about 15% while no trend was detected for weaker LPS (monsoon lows). The reduction in depression counts then moderated, yielding no trend in the periods 1980–2050 or 2015–2050. The ensemble mean projects a shift in genesis from ocean to land and an increase in LPS precipitation of at least 7% K −1 , which together contribute to a projected increase in seasonal mean and extreme precipitation over central India.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Measurement of muon pairs produced via γ γ scattering in nonultraperipheral Pb + Pb collisions at s N N = 5.02 TeV with the ATLAS detector

Results of a measurement of dimuon photoproduction in nonultraperipheral Pb + Pb collisions at √ s NN = 5.02 TeV are presented. The measurement uses ATLAS data from the 2015 and 2018 Pb + Pb data-taking periods at the LHC with an integrated luminosity of 1.94 nb –1 . The γγ → μ + μ – pairs are identified via selections on pair momentum asymmetry and acoplanarity. Differential cross sections for dimuon production are measured in different centrality, average muon momentum, and pair rapidity intervals as functions of acoplanarity and k ⊥ , the transverse momentum kick of one muon relative to the other. Measurements are also made as a function of the rapidity separation of the muons and the angle of the muon pair relative to the second-order event plane to test whether magnetic fields generated in the quark-gluon plasma affect the measured muons. A prior observation of a centrality-dependent broadening of the acoplanarity distribution is confirmed. Furthermore, the improved precision of the measurement reveals a depletion in the number of pairs having small acoplanarity or k ⊥ values in more central collisions. The acoplanarity distributions in a given centrality interval are observed to vary with the mean p T of the muons in the pair, but the k ⊥ distributions do not. Comparisons with recent theoretical predictions are made. The predicted trends associated with effects of magnetic fields on the dimuons are not observed.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Dependence of Cloud Macrophysical Properties and Phase Distributions on Environmental Conditions Over the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean: Results From COMBLE and MARCUS

The accurate representation of Cold Air Outbreaks (CAOs) and affiliated mixed-phase boundary layer (BL) clouds in models is challenging. How BL cloud properties evolve during CAOs and their dependence on meteorological conditions is not well understood but is important for the simulation of Earth's energy budgets. Here the properties of polar BL clouds over the North Atlantic (NA) and Southern Ocean (SO) are compared using observations from the Measurements of Aerosol Radiation and CloUds over the SO (MARCUS) and CAOs in the Marine BL Experiment (COMBLE) conducted over the NA. MARCUS observations show a stronger BL inversion than COMBLE, with a higher mean EIS (estimated inversion strength)/LTS (lower tropospheric stability) of -0.03 K/13 K compared to COMBLE’s -3.2 K/9.3 K. 39% of CAOs observed during COMBLE were intense with M > 5 K, while MARCUS only had 1.3%. 78%/72% of clouds sampled in CAOs during COMBLE/MARCUS had cloud top heights <4 km. The mean BL cloud top height was over 400 m higher, and the BL was over 500 m deeper for M of 10 K compared to 0 K for both regions. MARCUS observed a 27% moister BL structure than COMBLE when M > 5 K due to stronger BL inversion trapping more moisture within the BL. Under the same LTS, EIS, and M conditions, MARCUS observed a 12% drier BL structure, and clouds were 46% more turbulent than COMBLE. During CAOs, 54% of single-layer BL clouds sampled during MARCUS had liquid-dominated bases compared to 39% during COMBLE.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Direct and semi-direct radiative forcing of biomass-burning aerosols over the southeast Atlantic (SEA) and its sensitivity to absorbing properties: a regional climate modeling study

Simulations are performed for the period 2000-2015 by two different regional climate models, ALADIN and RegCM, to quantify the direct and semi-direct radiative effects of biomass-burning aerosols (BBAs) in the southeast Atlantic (SEA) region. Different simulations have been performed using strongly absorbing BBAs in accordance with recent in situ observations over the SEA. For the July-August-September (JAS) season, the single scattering albedo (SSA) and total aerosol optical depth (AOD) simulated by the ALADIN and RegCM models are consistent with the MACv2 climatology and MERRA-2 and CAMS-RA reanalyses near the biomass-burning emission sources. However, the above-cloud AOD is slightly underestimated compared to satellite (MODIS and POLDER) data during the transport over the SEA. The direct radiative effect exerted at the continental and oceanic surfaces by BBAs is significant in both models and the radiative effects at the top of the atmosphere indicate a remarkable regional contrast over SEA (in all-sky conditions), with a cooling (warming) north (south) of 10°S, which is in agreement with the recent MACv2 climatology. In addition, the two models indicate that BBAs are responsible for an important shortwave radiative heating of ~0.5-1K per day over SEA during JAS with maxima between 2 and 4 km a.m.s.l. (above mean sea level). At these altitudes, BBAs increase air temperature by ~0.2-0.5 K, with the highest values being co-located with low stratocumulus clouds. Vertical changes in air temperature limit the subsidence of air mass over SEA, creating a cyclonic anomaly. The opposite effect is simulated over the continent due to the increase in lower troposphere stability. The BBA semi-direct effect on the lower troposphere circulation is found to be consistent between the two models. Changes in the cloud fraction are moderate in response to the presence of smoke, and the models differ over the Gulf of Guinea. Finally, the results indicate an important sensitivity of the direct and semi-direct effects to the absorbing properties of BBAs. Over the stratocumulus (Sc) region, DRE varies from +0.94 W m -2 (scattering BBAs) to +3.93 W m -2 (most absorbing BBAs).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Magnetism and its coexistence with superconductivity in CaK(Fe 0.949 Ni 0.051 ) 4 As 4 : Muon spin rotation/relaxation studies

Here, the magnetic response of Ca K ( Fe 0.949 Ni 0.051 ) 4 As 4 was investigated by means of the muon spin rotation/relaxation. The long-range commensurate magnetic order sets in below the Néel temperature T N = 50.0 ( 5 ) K. The density-functional theory calculations have identified three possible muon stopping sites. The experimental data were found to be consistent with only one type of magnetic structure, namely, the long-range magnetic spin-vortex-crystal order with the hedgehog motif within the a b plane and the antiferromagnetic stacking along the c direction. The value of the ordered magnetic moment at T ≈ 3 K was estimated to be m Fe = 0.38 ( 11 ) μ B ( μ B is the Bohr magneton). A microscopic coexistence of magnetic and superconducting phases accompanied by a reduction of the magnetic order parameter below the superconducting transition temperature T c ≃ 9 K is observed. Comparison with 11, 122, and 1144 families of Fe-based pnictides points to existence of correlation between the reduction of the magnetic order parameter at T → 0 and the ratio of the transition temperatures T c / T N . Such correlations were found to be described by Machida's model for coexistence of itinerant spin-density-wave magnetism and superconductivity [K. Machida, J. Phys. Soc. Jpn. 50 , 2195 (1981) ; S. L. Bud'ko et al. , Phys. Rev. B 98 , 144520 (2018) ].

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Microstructural evolution of Mo-UO 2 cermets under high temperature hydrogen environments

Ceramic-metallic (cermet) materials show promise for use in nuclear thermal propulsion applications due to attractive thermophysical properties including high temperature stability and high thermal conductivity. In this work, molybdenum-uranium dioxide (Mo-UO 2 ) cermet fuel elements were fabricated by means of spark plasma sintering (SPS) and were subsequently exposed to hydrogen at high temperatures (2500 K). Mo-UO 2 samples pre- and post-exposure were characterized by means of optical microscopy, scanning electron microscopy, and X-ray diffraction (XRD). Microscopy analyses of the as-produced material displayed microscopic cracking on the interior of the spherical UO 2 fuel particles but confirmed that the fuel particles were fully encapsulated in the Mo matrix. The results further showed mass loss, macroscopic swelling, and cracking in the cermet samples which occurred during high temperature hydrogen testing. Nanoscale swelling was evidenced by XRD in the Mo matrix and UO 2 fuel structure due to the incorporation of defects and accompanied microstrain.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Nanoscale defect evaluation framework combining real-time transmission electron microscopy and integrated machine learning-particle filter estimation

Observation of dynamic processes by transmission electron microscopy (TEM) is an attractive technique to experimentally analyze materials’ nanoscale phenomena and understand the microstructure-properties relationships in nanoscale. Even if spatial and temporal resolutions of real-time TEM increase significantly, it is still difficult to say that the researchers quantitatively evaluate the dynamic behavior of defects. Images in TEM video are a two-dimensional projection of three-dimensional space phenomena, thus missing information must be existed that makes image’s uniquely accurate interpretation challenging. Therefore, even though they are still a clustering high-dimensional data and can be compressed to two-dimensional, conventional statistical methods for analyzing images may not be powerful enough to track nanoscale behavior by removing various artifacts associated with experiment; and automated and unbiased processing tools for such big-data are becoming mission-critical to discover knowledge about unforeseen behavior. We have developed a method to quantitative image analysis framework to resolve these problems, in which machine learning and particle filter estimation are uniquely combined. The quantitative and automated measurement of the dislocation velocity in an Fe-31Mn-3Al-3Si autunitic steel subjected to the tensile deformation was performed to validate the framework, and an intermittent motion of the dislocations was quantitatively analyzed. The framework is successfully classifying, identifying and tracking nanoscale objects; these are not able to be accurately implemented by the conventional mean-path based analysis.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Measurement of the 239 Pu$(n, f$) prompt fission neutron spectrum from 10 keV to 10 MeV induced by neutrons of energy 1–20 MeV

Although the prompt fission neutron spectrum (PFNS) is an essential component of neutron-driven systems that has been measured for decades, there are still multiple glaring unknowns regarding the PFNS of major actinides in the fission neutron incident energy range, specifically with regard to multichance fission and pre-equilibrium neutron emission processes. The only impactful experimental 239 Pu PFNS measurements included in recent nuclear data evaluations were measured over a limited outgoing neutron energy range at thermal and 1.5-MeV average incident neutron energy, while other potentially impactful measurements have been shown to contain errors that resulted in either large uncertainty increases or in complete exclusion from nuclear data evaluation. Here, we report a measurement of the 239 Pu PFNS over a wide range of incident neutron energy (1–20 MeV) and three orders of magnitude in outgoing neutron energy (0.01–10 MeV) resulting from the Chi-Nu experiment at the Los Alamos Neutron Science Center. These results are the combination of separate PFNS measurements in the same experimental area, one using a Li-glass and the other a liquid scintillator detector array. Covariances between all PFNS data points from each detector and within each incident energy range were generated between all other data in both detector arrays and within all other incident neutron energy bins, yielding a single covariance matrix for all 1300 PFNS data points reported here. These covariances are based on a thorough assessment of systematic bias and uncertainties associated with the measurement, PFNS extraction technique, combination of data from each detector type, and other aspects of the analysis. The existence of covariances between PFNS data points in different incident neutron energy ranges yielded covariances between average PFNS energy values at each incident energy to be reported here as well, which allowed for firm statements to be made regarding a shape of a purely experimental mean PFNS energy trend for the first time. Although minor PFNS shape differences exist between the results reported here and recent nuclear data evaluations, the ENDF/B-VIII.0 and JEFF-3.3 PFNS evaluations agree reasonably well with the present results from 1-to 10-MeV incident neutron energy, which spans the well-measured 1.5-MeV incident neutron energy PFNS from Lestone and Shores as well as the onset of second-chance fission. However, while the pre-equilibrium component of the PFNS above 12-MeV incident neutron energy roughly agrees in position and magnitude with ENDF/B-VIII.0 and JEFF-3.3, clear differences relating to the relative magnitude of third-chance fission PFNS features are present in the PFNS shape and in the mean PFNS energy trends.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Generation of lognormal synthetic Lyman-α forest spectra for P 1 D analysis

The one-dimensional flux power spectrum (P 1 D ) of the Lyman-α forest probes small-scale structure in the intergalactic medium (IGM) and is therefore sensitive to a variety of cosmological and astrophysical parameters. These include the amplitude and shape of the matter power spectrum, the thermal history of the IGM, the sum of neutrino masses, and potential small-scale fluctuations due to the nature of dark matter. However, P 1 D is also highly sensitive to observational and instrumental systematics, making accurate synthetic spectra essential for validating analyses and quantifying these effects, especially in high-volume surveys like the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). We present an efficient lognormal mock framework for generating one-dimensional Lyman-α forest spectra tailored for P 1 D analysis. Our method captures the redshift evolution of the mean transmitted flux and the scale-dependent shape and amplitude of the one-dimensional flux power spectrum by tuning Gaussian field correlations and transformation parameters. Across the DESI Early Data Release (EDR) redshift range (2.0 ≤ z ≤ 3.8), and a wide range of scales (10 -4 s km -1 ≤ k ≤ 1.0 s km -1 ), our mocks recover the mean flux evolution with redshift to sub-percent accuracy, and the P 1 D at the percent level. Additionally, we discuss potential extensions of this framework, such as the incorporation of astrophysical contaminants, continuum uncertainties, and instrumental effects. Such improvements would expand its utility in ongoing and upcoming surveys and enable a broader range of validation efforts and systematics studies for P 1 D inference and precision cosmology.

Lyman alpha forest↗

Quantifying and attributing time step sensitivities in present-day climate simulations conducted with EAMv1

Abstract. This study assesses the relative importance of time integration error in present-day climate simulations conducted with the atmosphere component of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (EAMv1) at 1∘ horizontal resolution. We show that a factor-of-6 reduction of time step size in all major parts of the model leads to significant changes in the long-term mean climate. Examples of changes in 10-year mean zonal averages include the following: up to 0.5 K of warming in the lower troposphere and cooling in the tropical and subtropical upper troposphere, 1 %–10 % decreases in relative humidity throughout the troposphere, and 10 %–20 % decreases in cloud fraction in the upper troposphere and decreases exceeding 20 % in the subtropical lower troposphere. In terms of the 10-year mean geographical distribution, systematic decreases of 20 %–50 % are seen in total cloud cover and cloud radiative effects in the subtropics. These changes imply that the reduction of temporal truncation errors leads to a notable although unsurprising degradation of agreement between the simulated and observed present-day climate; to regain optimal climate fidelity in the absence of those truncation errors, the model would require retuning. A coarse-grained attribution of the time step sensitivities is carried out by shortening time steps used in various components of EAM or by revising the numerical coupling between some processes. Our analysis leads to the finding that the marked decreases in the subtropical low-cloud fraction and total cloud radiative effect are caused not by the step size used for the collectively subcycled turbulence, shallow convection, and stratiform cloud macrophysics and microphysics parameterizations but rather by the step sizes used outside those subcycles. Further analysis suggests that the coupling frequency between the subcycles and the rest of EAM significantly affects the subtropical marine stratocumulus decks, while deep convection has significant impacts on trade cumulus. The step size of the cloud macrophysics and microphysics subcycle itself appears to have a primary impact on cloud fraction in the upper troposphere and also in the midlatitude near-surface layers. Impacts of step sizes used by the dynamical core and the radiation parameterization appear to be relatively small. These results provide useful clues for future studies aiming at understanding and addressing the root causes of sensitivities to time step sizes and process coupling frequencies in EAM. While this study focuses on EAMv1 and the conclusions are likely model-specific, the presented experimentation strategy has general value for weather and climate model development, as the methodology can help researchers identify and understand sources of time integration error in sophisticated multi-component models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Climate Change Projection in the Twenty-First Century Simulated by NIMS-KMA CMIP6 Model Based on New GHGs Concentration Pathways

Abstract The National Institute of Meteorological Sciences-Korea Meteorological Administration (NIMS-KMA) has participated in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) and provided long-term simulations using the coupled climate model. The NIMS-KMA produces new future projections using the ensemble mean of KMA Advanced Community Earth system model (K-ACE) and UK Earth System Model version1 (UKESM1) simulations to provide scientific information of future climate changes. In this study, we analyze four experiments those conducted following the new shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) based scenarios to examine projected climate change in the twenty-first century. Present day (PD) simulations show high performance skill in both climate mean and variability, which provide a reliability of the climate models and reduces the uncertainty in response to future forcing. In future projections, global temperature increases from 1.92 °C to 5.20 °C relative to the PD level (1995–2014). Global mean precipitation increases from 5.1% to 10.1% and sea ice extent decreases from 19% to 62% in the Arctic and from 18% to 54% in the Antarctic. In addition, climate changes are accelerating toward the late twenty-first century. Our CMIP6 simulations are released to the public through the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) international data sharing portal and are used to support the establishment of the national adaptation plan for climate change in South Korea.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessment of Low-Level Pu Isotope Ratio Measurements Using Multicollector Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry (MC-ICP-MS/MS) Equipped with a Pre-Mass Filter

We present an initial investigation into the performance of a multicollector inductively coupled plasmamass spectrometer equipped with a pre-mass filter (Neoma MC-ICP-MS/MS) for making plutonium (Pu) isotope ratio measurements on solutions containing low level (i.e., pg mL –1 ) Pu concentrations. This assessment was achieved by comparison of the 240 Pu/ 239 Pu, 241 Pu/ 239 Pu, and 242 Pu/ 239 Pu ratios attained over a one month period on the MC-ICP-MS/MS with the long-term (∼1 year) performance observed on the predecessor MC-ICP-MS (Neptune Plus) instrument each equipped with an equipped with an APEXΩ desolvating nebulizer for repeated measurements of certified reference materials from New Brunswick Program Office (NBL PO) CRM 136a and CRM 137. The MC-ICP-MS/MS performance of repeated measurement of CRM 136a (n = 20) resulted in mean values of 240 Pu/ 239 Pu = 0.1448 ± 0.0006, 241 Pu/ 239 Pu = 0.00371 ± 0.00006, and 242 Pu/ 239 Pu = 0.00682 ± 0.00006 (k = 2). The CRM 137 (n = 20), analyzed during the same analytical sessions, produced mean values for 240 Pu/ 239 Pu = 0.2414 ± 0.0006, 241 Pu/ 239 Pu = 0.00464 ± 0.00007, and 242 Pu/ 239 Pu = 0.0157 ± 0.0001 (k = 2). These results closely align with the certificate values for CRM 136a and CRM 137 and are within the k = 2 envelopes defined by the long-term performance of the traditional MC-ICP-MS approach (Neptune Plus). Examination of the performance of the various Pu isotope ratios as a function of total Pu content revealed accurate results (<3% relative difference, or RD) above ∼50 fg total Pu. The results presented here demonstrate the capability of the MC-ICP-MS/MS making accurate and precise low level Pu isotopic measurements. While the intent of this work was not to investigate the functionality of the collision cell, the pre-mass filter was employed. Future studies are warranted to investigate the entire capability of the MC-ICP-MS/MS collision cell and pre-cell mass filter optimization for performing low level Pu isotope measurements, even in mixed matrix samples.

CRM↗

Bayesian inference of in-medium baryon-baryon scattering cross sections from HADES proton flow data

Within a Bayesian statistical framework using a Gaussian Process emulator for an isospin-dependent Boltzmann-Uehling-Uhlenbeck (IBUU) transport model simulator of heavy-ion reactions at intermediate energies, we infer from the HADES proton flow data the posterior probability distribution functions of in-medium baryon-baryon scattering cross section modification factor X with respect to free-space and the corresponding incompressibility K of nuclear matter as well as their correlation function. In conclusion, the mean value of X is found to be $X$ = $1.32_ {+0.28} ^ {-0.40} $ at 68% confidence level assuming the nuclear incompressibility K will not exceed 400 MeV, providing circumstantial evidence for enhanced baryon-braryon scattering cross sections in hot and dense nuclear matter.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Chemistry Informed Machine Learning-Based Heat Capacity Prediction of Solid Mixed Oxides

Knowing heat capacity is crucial for modeling temperature changes with the absorption and release of heat and for calculating the thermal energy storage capacity of oxide mixtures with energy applications. The current prediction methods (ab initio simulations, computational thermodynamics, and the Neumann–Kopp rule) are computationally expensive, not fully generalizable, or inaccurate. Machine learning has the potential of being fast, accurate, and generalizable, but it has been scarcely used to predict mixture properties, particularly for mixed oxides. Here, we demonstrate a method for the generalizable prediction of heat capacity of solid oxide pseudobinary mixtures using heat capacity data obtained from computational thermodynamics and descriptors from ab initio databases. Further, models trained through this workflow achieved an error (mean absolute error of 0.43 J mol –1 K –1 ) lower than the uncertainty in differential scanning calorimetry measurements, and the workflow can be extended to predict other properties derived from the Gibbs free energy and for higher-order oxide mixtures.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

The Role of Mesoscale Cloud Morphology in the Shortwave Cloud Feedback

A supervised neural network algorithm is used to categorize near-global satellite retrievals into three mesoscale cellular convective (MCC) cloud morphology patterns. At constant cloud amount, morphology patterns differ in brightness associated with the amount of optically thin cloud features. Environmentally driven transitions from closed MCC to other morphology patterns, typically accompanied by more optically thin cloud features, are used as a framework to quantify the morphology contribution to the optical depth component of the shortwave cloud feedback. A marine heat wave is used as an out-of-sample test of closed MCC occurrence predictions. Morphology shifts in optical depth between 65°S and 65°N under projected environmental changes (i.e., from an abrupt quadrupling of CO 2 ) assuming constant cloud cover contributes between 0.04 and 0.07 W m -2 K -1 (aggregate of 0.06) to the global mean cloud feedback.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Competing effects of soil fertility and toxicity on tropical greening

Tropical forests are expected to green up with increasing atmospheric CO 2 concentrations, but primary productivity may be limited by soil nutrient availability. However, rarely have canopy-scale measurements been assessed against soil measurements in the tropics. Here, we sought to assess remotely sensed canopy greenness against steep soil nutrient gradients across 50 1-ha mature forest plots in Panama. Contrary to expectations, increases in in situ extractable soil phosphorus (P) and base cations (K, Mg) corresponded to declines in remotely sensed mean annual canopy greenness (r 2 = 0.77– 0.85; p < 0.1), controlling for precipitation. The reason for this inverse relationship appears to be that litterfall also increased with increasing soil P and cation availability (r 2 = 0.88–0.98; p < 0.1), resulting in a decline in greenness with increasing annual litterfall (r 2 = 0.94; p < 0.1). As such, greater soil nutrient availability corresponded to greater leaf turnover, resulting in decreased greenness. However, these decreases in greenness with increasing soil P and cations were countered by increases in greenness with increasing soil nitrogen (N) (r 2 = 0.14; p < 0.1), which had no significant relationship with litterfall, likely reflecting a direct effect of soil N on leaf chlorophyll content, but not on litterfall rates. In addition, greenness increased with extractable soil aluminum (Al) (r 2 = 0.97; p < 0.1), but Al had no significant relationship with litterfall, suggesting a physiological adaptation of plants to high levels of toxic metals. Thus, spatial gradients in canopy greenness are not necessarily positive indicators of soil nutrient scarcity. Using a novel remote sensing index of canopy greenness limitation, we assessed how observed greenness compares with potential greenness. We found a strong relationship with soil N only (r 2 = 0.65; p < 0.1), suggesting that tropical canopy greenness in Panama is predominantly limited by soil N, even if plant productivity (e.g., litterfall) responds to rock-derived nutrients. Moreover, greenness limitation was also significantly correlated with fine root biomass and soil carbon stocks (r 2 = 0.62–0.71; p < 0.1), suggesting a feedback from soil N to canopy greenness to soil carbon storage. Altogether, these data point to the potential utility of a remote sensing product for assessing belowground properties in tropical ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Response of marine post-frontal clouds to Gulf Stream variability

Understanding how Gulf Stream variation influences cloud morphology is critical for evaluating cloud feedback in the western North Atlantic Ocean and beyond, where mesoscale air-sea interactions dominate. This study investigates the impact of altered mean sea surface temperature (SST) and SST gradients on post-frontal cloud characteristics during cold-air outbreaks, using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Three sensitivity experiments are conducted: a control simulation (default SST), Plus4 (uniform SST increase of 4 K), and Gradplus (SST gradient enhanced by 25 %, centered around mean SST). Results reveal distinctly different responses in boundary layer dynamics and cloud macro-physics. In Plus4, a warmer and moister boundary layer reduces total cloud cover but promotes larger cloud sizes and elongated cloud streets, with diminished liquid water and enhanced ice-phase hydrometeors. Conversely, Gradplus amplifies impacts in the upwind colder SST regions, yielding a drier, colder boundary layer, weaker energy transport, and higher liquid water path but reduced ice water content and cloud lines. Tracer analysis highlights that SST modifications alter airmass sources near cloud tops due to the entrainment of ambient air, with Plus4 amplifying boundary layer contributions to cloud-top regions. These findings underscore the spatially varying effects of SST gradients and mean SST on cloud organization and microphysics, emphasizing the need to resolve ocean-atmosphere coupling in global models to improve the prediction of marine cloud feedback under warming scenarios.

AIR-SEA INTERACTION↗

Entropy-based feature selection for capturing impacts in Earth system models with abrupt forcing

This paper presents the development of a new entropy-based feature selection method for identifying and quantifying impacts. Here, impacts are defined as statistically significant differences in spatio-temporal fields when comparing datasets with and without an external forcing in an Earth system model. Temporal feature selection is performed by first computing the cross-fuzzy entropy to quantify similarity of patterns between two datasets and then applying changepoint detection to identify regions of statistically constant entropy. The method is used to capture temperate north surface cooling from a 9-member simulation ensemble of the Mt. Pinatubo volcanic eruption, which injected 10 Tg of SO 2 into the stratosphere. The results estimate a mean difference decrease in near surface air temperature of -0.560 K with a 99% confidence interval between -0.864 K and -0.257 K between April and November of 1992, one year following the eruption. A sensitivity analysis with decreasing SO 2 injection revealed that the impact is statistically significant at 5 Tg but not at 3 Tg. Using identified features, a dependency graph model based on a 9-day lag had significantly fewer nodes than a graph based on monthly means. Furthermore, this demonstrates our method’s ability to perform dimension reduction while still uncovering source-to-impact pathways.

Changepoint detection↗