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At least 289 records · Page 16

Comparison of Global Aboveground Biomass Estimates From Satellite Observations and Dynamic Global Vegetation Models

The global forest carbon stocks represent the amount of carbon stored in woody vegetation and are important for quantifying the ability of the global forests to sequester atmospheric CO 2 and to provide ecosystem services (e.g., timber) under climate change. The forest ecosystem carbon pool estimates are highly variable and poorly quantified in areas lacking forest inventory estimates. Here, we compare and analyze aboveground biomass (AGB) estimates from five satellite-based global data sets and nine dynamic global vegetation models (DVGMs). We find that across the data sets, mean AGB exhibits the largest variability around the tropical area. In addition, AGB shows a similar latitudinal trend but large variability among the data sets. Satellite-based AGB estimates are lower than those simulated by DVGMs. The divergence among the satellite-based AGB estimates can be driven by the methodology, input satellite products, and the forested areas used to estimate AGB. The modeled NPP, autotrophic respiration, and carbon allocation mostly drive the variability of AGB simulated by DGVMs. The future availability of a high-quality global forest area map is anticipated to improve AGB estimate accuracy and to reduce the discrepancies among different satellite- and model-based AGB estimates. Furthermore, we suggest the carbon-modeling community reexamine the methodology used to estimate AGB and forested areas for a more robust global forest carbon stock estimation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Is the galactic corona produced by galactic flares?

The effect of the differential rotation of the disk of the Galaxy on magnetic field which penetrates the disk is considered. The magnetic field will be progressively distorted from a potential (current-free) form and will at some stage become unstable. It is expected that an MHD instability, a resistive instability, or a combination of the two, will result in the release of the excess magnetic energy and that part of the released energy will be converted into heat. By estimating the energy release and the rate at which this process will occur and by assuming that this energy input is balanced by radiation, estimates were obtained of the parameters of the resulting plasma. It appears that this process alone can heat a galactic corona to temperatures of order 10 to the 6th power K.

Sturrock, P. A.↗

Continuing Long-term Global SO 2 Data Record with JPSS OMPS Instruments

NASA’s long-term Earth Observing System (EOS) SO 2 climate data record (CDR) started with Aura/Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI, launched in 2004) and is now being continued with the SNPP/Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite (OMPS, launched in 2011). Both OMI and SNPP/OMPS SO 2 CDRs are produced with the Goddard principal component analysis (PCA) spectral fitting algorithm. By inherently accounting for various instrumental factors, the PCA technique enables highly consistent retrievals between different instruments. In this presentation, we will provide an overview on our effort to further extend the EOS SO 2 CDR, by implementing the PCA SO 2 algorithm with multiple OMPS instruments flying on the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) constellation, including NOAA-20 (launched in 2017) and NOAA-21 (launched in 2022). We will present results analyzing our new NOAA-20/OMPS PCA SO 2 EOS continuity product, to be publicly released in fall of 2023. We will show statistical analyses on the quality of NOAA-20 PCA SO 2 product, such as retrieval noise, biases over background areas, and long-term stability. We will employ a previously established top-down method to estimate SO2 emissions from selected large point sources, using NOAA-20 SO 2 retrievals and assimilated wind fields as input. The SO 2 emission estimates derived from NOAA-20 retrievals will be compared with those from OMI, SNPP/OMPS, and S5P/TROPOMI (TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument). We will also demonstrate the application of a new machine learning technique that further reduces the noise of NOAA-20 SO 2 retrievals. Finally, we will present preliminary PCA SO 2 retrievals from recently launched satellite sensors, including NOAA-21/OMPS and NASA’s geostationary TEMPO (Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution) instrument.

SO2↗

How much information on precipitation is contained in satellite infrared imagery?

Satellite infrared (IR) brightness temperature providing information on the characteristics of cloud tops is one of the primary input data used for estimating precipitation from satellites. Thus, the natural questions to ask are: Does IR imagery contain more information about precipitation in some regions more than others? What are the factors that lead to such differences? Should we expect the amount of information provided by IR imagery to change with respect to temporal or spatial aggregation? Comprehensive analysis of the accuracy of satellite-based precipitation estimates obtained from any given algorithm may provide qualitative answers to the above questions. However, such an approach only offers conclusions within the limited context of the algorithm used to obtain precipitation estimates; that is, patterns caused by the inherent information content of IR imagery are inextricable from those induced by assumptions embedded in the precipitation estimation algorithm. Here, we address the abovementioned questions from a different perspective using an information-theoretic measure, free of structural assumptions and general to a wide range of relationships, to characterize the average and seasonal dependence between IR imagery provided by satellite sensors in the spectral range (10.7–11.5 μm) and precipitation rates in the contiguous United States (CONUS) across distinct temporal and spatial scales. We analyze a total of more than 1.3 billion pairs of IR and precipitation observations over CONUS, and we observe interesting patterns. First, we show that there is a strong inverse relationship (ρ = - 0.73) between the information content of IR data and the number of no-rain observations; however, its robustness varies regionally and seasonally with less significant correlation during the warm season. Second, we demonstrate that the intuitive relationship of increasing dependence between IR and precipitation as a result of temporal or spatial aggregation exhibits a diminishing returns behavior. For instance, temporal aggregation from 1 to 3 h increases the dependence approximately 7 times as much as temporal aggregation from 12 to 24 h. Furthermore, we quantitatively examine and re-confirm several statements previously reported in the literature such as the strong association between IR and precipitation in convective storms and the low association in orographic rainfall. Finally, we conclude by illustrating the potential of the analysis in diagnosis of operational algorithms for estimating precipitation from IR brightness temperature. The findings of this study pinpoint spatial domains and time scales at which IR is not an adequate proxy for estimating precipitation. Thus, they can potentially guide the development of operational algorithms that utilize satellite Infrared imagery for estimating, downscaling and data fusion of precipitation. Finally, the analysis presented here opens up the possibility of developing new methodologies for diagnosis of satellite-based precipitation estimation algorithms.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Controlling extrapolations of nuclear properties with feature selection

Predictions of nuclear properties far from measured data are inherently inaccurate because of uncertainties in our knowledge of nuclear forces and in our treatment of quantum many-body effects in strongly-interacting systems. While the model bias can be directly calculated when experimental data is available, only an estimate can be made in the absence of such measurements. Current approaches to compute the estimated bias quickly lose predictive power when their input variables are taken far from the training region, resulting in uncontrolled uncertainties in applications such as nucleosynthesis simulations. In this letter, we present a novel technique to identify the input variables of machine learning algorithms that can provide robust estimates of model bias. Our process is based on selecting input variables, or features, based on their probability distribution functions across the entire nuclear chart. We illustrate our approach on the problem of quantifying the model bias in nuclear binding energies calculated with Density Functional Theory (DFT). We prove that building model biases with only Z and N as features leads to highly unreliable extrapolations. Conversely, we show that proper feature selection can systematically improve theoretical predictions without increasing uncertainties.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Superthermal Electron Deposition on the Mars Nightside During ICMEs

Superthermal electron precipitation is one of the main sources supporting the Mars nightside ionosphere. It is expected that solar wind electron fluxes are to increase significantly during interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) and therefore an enhanced nightside ionospheric density. This study is to quantify the variation of the precipitating and deposited electron fluxes during five extreme ICMEs encountered by Mars Global Surveyor (MGS). We find that energy fluxes correlate better with the upstream dynamic pressure proxy than number fluxes and electron fluxes increase more at high energies, which means that electrons tend to have a lower peak production altitude during storm times. The precipitating and net/deposited fluxes are increased up to an order of magnitude from low to high dynamic pressures. The estimated total electron content (TEC) is a few times of 10 14 m -2 for quiet times and on the order of 1015 m -2 for storm times, with an enhancement up to an order of magnitude locally near strong crustal fields. Crustal magnetic fields have an effect on the deposited fluxes with more prominent magnetic reflection over strong magnetic fields during quiet periods, which is significantly reduced during storm times. Lastly, we estimate a global energy input from downward fluxes of 1.1 × 10 8 and 5.5 × 10 8 W and the globally deposited energy from net fluxes of 2.0 × 10 7 and 1.6 × 10 8 W for quiet and storm time periods, a factor of 5 and 8 enhancement globally, respectively, but up to an order of magnitude locally near strong crustal fields.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Eroding Permafrost Coastlines Release Biodegradable Dissolved Organic Carbon to the Arctic Ocean

Coastal erosion mobilizes large quantities of organic matter (OM) to the Arctic Ocean where it may fuel greenhouse gas emissions and marine production. While the biodegradability of permafrost-derived dissolved organic carbon (DOC) has been extensively studied in inland soils and freshwaters, few studies have examined dissolved OM (DOM) leached from eroding coastal permafrost in seawater. To address this knowledge gap, we sampled three horizons from bluff exposures near Drew Point, Alaska: seasonally thawed active layer soils, permafrost containing Holocene terrestrial and/or lacustrine OM, and permafrost containing late-Pleistocene marine-derived OM. Samples were leached in seawater to compare DOC yields, DOM composition (chromophoric DOM, Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry), and biodegradable DOC (BDOC). Holocene terrestrial permafrost leached the most DOC compared to active layer soils and Pleistocene marine permafrost. However, DOC from Pleistocene marine permafrost was the most biodegradable (33 ± 6% over 90 days), followed by DOC from active layer soils (23 ± 5%) and Holocene terrestrial permafrost (14 ± 3%). Permafrost leachates contained relatively more aliphatic and peptide-like formulae, whereas active layer leachates contained relatively more aromatic formulae. BDOC was positively correlated with nitrogen-containing and aliphatic formulae, and negatively correlated with polyphenolic and condensed aromatic formulae. Using estimates of eroding OM, we scale our results to estimate DOC and BDOC inputs to the Alaska Beaufort Sea. While DOC inputs from coastal erosion are relatively small compared to rivers, our results suggest that erosion may be an important source of BDOC to the Beaufort Sea when river inputs are low.

Bristol, Emily M.↗

Radiation Source Localization Using Surrogate Models Constructed from 3-D Monte Carlo Transport Physics Simulations

Recent research has focused on the development of surrogate models for radiation source localization in a simulated urban domain. We employ the Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) code to provide high- delity simulations of radiation transport within an urban domain. The model is constructed to employ a source location (x, y, z) as input and return the estimated count rate for a set of speci ed detector locations. Because MCNP simulations are computationally expensive, we develop e cient and accurate surrogate models of the detector responses. We construct surrogate models using Gaussian processes (GP) and neural networks (NN) that we train and verify using the MCNP simulations. The trained surrogate models provide an e cient framework for Bayesian inference and experimental design. We employ Delayed Rejection Adaptive Metropolis (DRAM), a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm, to infer the location and intensity of an unknown source. The DRAM results yield a posterior probability distribution for the source's location conditioned on the observed detector count rates. The posterior distribution exhibits regions of high and low probability within the simulated environment identifying potential source locations. In this manner, we can quantify the source location to within at least one of these regions of high probability in the considered cases. Employing these methods, we are able to reduce the space of potential source locations by at least 60%.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Modeling and Control Using Stochastic Distribution Control Theory for Intersection Traffic Flow

In this work, we investigated stochastic distribution control theory-based traffic signal optimization to achieve a smooth and uniform flow of vehicles through signalized intersections. In this context, the static and linear dynamic stochastic distribution models were developed to express the relationship between the signal timing and the traffic queue length together with its probability density function. Two stochastic distribution control algorithms were designed to control the signal timing at intersections such that the probability density function of the traffic queue of each intersection road segment is made as narrow and as small as possible. Also, a recursive input-output traffic queue estimation model was proposed, which is data-driven and dynamic in nature, to calculate real-time traffic queue length using traffic signal timings and loop-detector data. The control algorithms were evaluated for a one-signal corridor, two-signal corridor, and 2 x 2 network of signalized intersections. MATLAB simulation examples are provided to demonstrate the use of the proposed algorithms and comparison to the existing widely-used semi-actuated control has been made. Desired results were obtained.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Parameter Identification for Battery Abuse Reaction Kinetics Models Using DSC Analysis [SWR-23-87]

This code estimates the parameters as inputs for NREL’s abuse reaction kinetics model using Differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) experimental data. The parameters for calculating the rates of abuse reactions among battery cell components at elevated temperatures include frequency factor, activation energy, and reaction orders. The least-squared method is employed to fit the reaction model to DSC data. The code is implemented in MATLAB.

Yang, Chuanbo↗

WBM-Hydro-ReEDS

WBM-hydro-ReEDS is a tool for converting daily reservoir release simulations from the WMB model to monthly, plant-level hydropower generation estimates, and then to inputs for the ReEDS model.

Turner, Sean [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL)↗

High-Performance Simulation of Dynamic Hydrologic Exchange and Implications for Surrogate Flow and Reactive Transport Modeling in a Large River Corridor

Hydrologic exchange flows (HEFs) have environmental significance in riverine ecosystems. Key river channel factors that influence the spatial and temporal variations of HEFs include river stage, riverbed morphology, and riverbed hydraulic conductivity. However, their impacts on HEFs were often evaluated independently or on small scales. In this study, we numerically evaluated the combined interactions of these factors on HEFs using a high-performance simulator, PFLOTRAN, for subsurface flow and transport. The model covers 51 square kilometers of a selected river corridor with large sinuosity along the Hanford Reach of the Columbia River in Washington, US. Three years of spatially distributed hourly river stages were applied to the riverbed. Compared to the simulation when riverbed heterogeneity is not ignored, the simulation using homogeneous riverbed conductivity underestimated HEFs, especially upwelling from lateral features, and overestimated the mean residence times derived from particle tracking. To derive a surrogate model for the river corridor, we amended the widely used transient storage model (TSM) for riverine solute study at reach scale with reactions. By treating the whole river corridor as a batch reactor, the temporal changes in the exchange rate coefficient for the TSM were derived from the dynamic residence time estimated from the hourly PFLOTRAN results. The TSM results were evaluated against the effective concentrations in the hyporheic zone calculated from the PFLOTRAN simulations. Our results show that there is potential to parameterize surrogate models such as TSM amended with biogeochemical reactions while incorporating small-scale process understandings and the signature of time-varying streamflow to advance the mechanistic understanding of river corridor processes at reach to watershed scales. However, the assumption of a well-mixed storage zone for TSM should be revisited when redox-sensitive reactions in the storage zones play important roles in river corridor functioning.

Fang, Yilin↗

More solar models and neutrino fluxes.

Derivation of neutrino fluxes from a sequence of solar models that differ from one another in regard to opacity, equation of state, and nuclear cross-section factors. Using current estimates of the relevant input parameters, capture rates are obtained that range between three and ten times the most recent result of the Davis Cl 37 neutrino-capture experiment. The contribution to a theoretical capture rate due to neutrinos from all reactions other than B 8 decay ranges from 0.5 to 1.5 times the latest observational result. Comparison with results of other solar model calculations indicates reasonable agreement when results are normalized to the same input parameters.

Abraham, Z.↗

Satellite tracking by combined optimal estimation and control techniques.

Combined optimal estimation and control techniques are applied for the first time to satellite tracking systems. Both radio antenna and optical tracking systems of NASA are considered. The optimal estimation is accomplished using an extended Kalman filter resulting in an estimated state of the satellite and of the tracking system. This estimated state constitutes an input to the optimal controller. The optimal controller treats a linearized system with a quadratic performance index. The maximum principle is applied and a steady-state approximation to the resulting Riccati equation is obtained. A computer program, RATS, implementing this algorithm is described. A feasibility study of real-time implementation, tracking simulations, and parameter sensitivity studies are also reported.

Dressler, R. M.↗

The response of a propeller anemometer to turbulent flow with the mean wind vector perpendicular to the axis of rotation

Determination of the properties of the system transfer function of the vertical-velocity propeller anemometer. A treatment of this problem is presented which is based on an analysis of estimates of the system transfer function derived from estimates of spectra calculated from time histories of indicated vertical velocity and on estimates of the associated input Eulerian vertical-velocity frequency spectra based on the hypothesis that instrument degradation of the Fourier components occurs in the inertial subrange.

Fichtl, G. H.↗

LACIE performance predictor final operational capability program description, volume 3

The requirements and processing logic for the LACIE Error Model program (LEM) are described. This program is an integral part of the Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment (LACIE) system. LEM is that portion of the LPP (LACIE Performance Predictor) which simulates the sample segment classification, strata yield estimation, and production aggregation. LEM controls repetitive Monte Carlo trials based on input error distributions to obtain statistical estimates of the wheat area, yield, and production at different levels of aggregation. LEM interfaces with the rest of the LPP through a set of data files.

Source record↗

AEROX: Computer program for transonic aircraft aerodynamics to high angles of attack. Volume 1: Aerodynamic methods and program users' guide

The AEROX program estimates lift, induced-drag and pitching moments to high angles (typ. 60 deg) for wings and for wingbody combinations with or without an aft horizontal tail. Minimum drag coefficients are not estimated, but may be input for inclusion in the total aerodynamic parameters which are output in listed and plotted formats. The theory, users' guide, test cases, and program listing are presented.

Axelson, J. A.↗