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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 289 records · Page 16
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

A general framework for removing point-spread function additive systematics in cosmological weak lensing analysis

ABSTRACT Cosmological weak lensing measurements rely on a precise measurement of the shear two-point correlation function (2PCF) along with a deep understanding of systematics that affect it. In this work, we demonstrate a general framework for detecting and modelling the impact of PSF systematics on the cosmic shear 2PCF and mitigating its impact on cosmological analysis. Our framework can detect PSF leakage and modelling error from all spin-2 quantities contributed by the PSF second and higher moments, rather than just the second moments, using the cross-correlations between galaxy shapes and PSF moments. We interpret null tests using the HSC Year 3 (Y3) catalogs with this formalism and find that leakage from the spin-2 combination of PSF fourth moments is the leading contributor to additive shear systematics, with total contamination that is an order-of-magnitude higher than that contributed by PSF second moments alone. We conducted a mock cosmic shear analysis for HSC Y3 and find that, if uncorrected, PSF systematics can bias the cosmological parameters Ωm and S8 by ∼0.3σ. The traditional second moment-based model can only correct for a 0.1σ bias, leaving the contamination largely uncorrected. We conclude it is necessary to model both PSF second and fourth moment contaminations for HSC Y3 cosmic shear analysis. We also reanalyse the HSC Y1 cosmic shear analysis with our updated systematics model and identify a 0.07σ bias on Ωm when using the more restricted second moment model from the original analysis. We demonstrate how to self-consistently use the method in both real space and Fourier space, assess shear systematics in tomographic bins, and test for PSF model overfitting.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Developing and Testing a Novel Stochastic Ice Microphysics Parameterization for Cloud and Climate Models Using ARM Field Campaign Data (Final Progress Report)

The major goals of this project were: 1) to use field campaign measurements from DOE’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program to characterize variability of important parameters describing properties of ice particles in the atmosphere; 2) based on this observational analysis, to develop a parameterization scheme for weather and climate models that stochastically varies these parameters, and implement the new scheme into a weather model called the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF); 3) to use WRF coupled with the new stochastic scheme to simulate ARM field campaign thunderstorm cases and analyze how accounting for this parameter variability affects the model simulations. This work was performed jointly between the National Center for Atmospheric Research, University of Oklahoma, and University of Utah. To accomplish these goals, we extended an approach previously developed to characterize the variability in the size distribution of ice particles to parameters that are explicitly represented in models (i.e., relationships between ice particle mass and size, and between particle fall velocity and size). Our project was, to our knowledge, the first to apply observationally-constrained estimates of this parameter variability describing mass-size and fall velocity-size in a modeling framework. Our results showed efficacy of the approach, evaluated using ARM observations. Similarly, to our knowledge, work in this project was the first to propose and evaluate in detail a stochastic approach for unresolved turbulent mixing in high-resolution model simulations against detailed, benchmark large eddy simulations and ARM observations. Results showed some promising behavior, particularly with increased mixing and dilution of air in thunderstorm cores with surrounding environmental air, bringing the stochastic simulations closer to the benchmark large eddy simulations; however, results were somewhat degraded using stochastic mixing compared to observations from the AMIE/DYNAMO field campaign. This project also further refined and applied a modeling methodology called “piggybacking” that can robustly separate dynamical and thermodynamic impacts of model changes, and comparison studies of different models based on cases developed from ARM observations. Finally, this project directly supported three graduate students who completed their PhDs as well as a postdoctoral research fellow.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine learning models for rat multigeneration reproductive toxicity prediction

Reproductive toxicity is one of the prominent endpoints in the risk assessment of environmental and industrial chemicals. Due to the complexity of the reproductive system, traditional reproductive toxicity testing in animals, especially guideline multigeneration reproductive toxicity studies, take a long time and are expensive. Therefore, machine learning, as a promising alternative approach, should be considered when evaluating the reproductive toxicity of chemicals. We curated rat multigeneration reproductive toxicity testing data of 275 chemicals from ToxRefDB (Toxicity Reference Database) and developed predictive models using seven machine learning algorithms (decision tree, decision forest, random forest, k-nearest neighbors, support vector machine, linear discriminant analysis, and logistic regression). A consensus model was built based on the seven individual models. An external validation set was curated from the COSMOS database and the literature. The performances of individual and consensus models were evaluated using 500 iterations of 5-fold cross-validations and the external validation data set. The balanced accuracy of the models ranged from 58% to 65% in the 5-fold cross-validations and 45%–61% in the external validations. Prediction confidence analysis was conducted to provide additional information for more appropriate applications of the developed models. The impact of our findings is in increasing confidence in machine learning models. We demonstrate the importance of using consensus models for harnessing the benefits of multiple machine learning models (i.e., using redundant systems to check validity of outcomes). While we continue to build upon the models to better characterize weak toxicants, there is current utility in saving resources by being able to screen out strong reproductive toxicants before investing in vivo testing. The modeling approach (machine learning models) is offered for assessing the rat multigeneration reproductive toxicity of chemicals. Our results suggest that machine learning may be a promising alternative approach to evaluate the potential reproductive toxicity of chemicals.

consensus model↗
DOE OSTI2024

Model Quality and Measurement Density Impact on Volt/Volt Ampere Reactive Optimization Performance

The operation of the utility grid is being reshaped by the continuous addition of distributed energy resources and advanced metering infrastructure, which challenge existing grid control strategies. Some utilities deploy advanced distribution management systems (ADMS) to assist with the consolidation of various applications and to augment situational awareness in response to the new power delivery dynamics. An ADMS is an integrated software platform that provides utilities with a way to enhance their reliability, control, and optimization with advanced applications, such as volt/VAR optimization (VVO). A VVO application could serve as a vehicle to deliver cost savings by providing the utility with a method to reduce rates by controlling the voltage and decreasing the energy usage in their service territory. Some utilities are reluctant to integrate an ADMS, because it is a significant investment that requires approval from the public regulatory commission and/or their customers. This paper evaluates the impact on VVO performance when using a lower-quality network model supplemented with additional measurements, which could provide an implementation for cost savings. The results show that a better model quality would provide the highest energy savings; however, some level of telemetry is necessary in all scenarios to prevent voltage exceedances.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis for SPERT III E-core reactivity measurement benchmarking

The Special Power Excursion Reactor Test (SPERT) III E-core experiment is important because it provides critical data on reactor behavior under significant reactivity insertions, which is essential for validating computer simulations and ensuring the safety of modern light water reactors. Its design similarities to contemporary reactors make it a valuable resource for understanding and mitigating extreme hazards in nuclear operations. The current study details the application of formal parametric uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis to a model of the SPERT-III E-core model for zero power reactivity benchmarking. Additionally, the reactivity impact from various modeling assumptions is quantified. Overall, an conservative estimate for an uncertainty in k$_{\text{eff}}$ of $\pm$1257 was observed. A less conservative, more realistic, uncertainty estimate of $\pm$1096 pcm can be justified by the potential for various parametric uncertainties to become negligible when sampled independently across the ~1400 pins in the core. The experimental results fall within both of these uncertainty bounds. Standardized regression coefficient as well as Sobol indices are used to identify the guide tube thicknesses as the primary contributors to the uncertainty in k$_{\text{eff}}$. Overall, this study provides information on how the uncertainties in input parameters and modeling methods impact simulated k$_{\text{eff}}$ values and can be used to aid model building efforts for future code validation with the SPERT-III E-core experiment.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Electric Water Heaters for Transactive Systems: Model Evaluations and Performance Quantification

Electric water heaters (EWHs) are opportune appliances for implementing demand-side control. EWH models serve as a fundamental step toward accurately estimating EWH flexibility potential and designing proper control strategies. Existing studies have adapted numerous modeling approaches in evaluating the potential of EWHs for a variety of grid applications. This paper presents an analytical study that evaluates the performance of state-of-art EWH models in terms of accuracy and computational complexity for adaptation in evaluation studies for the transactive system. The work proposes a transactive control strategy that optimally utilizes the thermal inertia of EWHs for providing grid services. Here, the performance of the control strategy and the impact of modeling accuracy is evaluated for device-level and feeder-level use cases using the IEEE 123 node test distribution system appropriately populated with EWHs. The simulation results illustrate the effectiveness of the control strategy in reducing the feeder demand during peak period by 13% and also quantities the impact of using simplified modeling approaches for determining the potential of EWHs for providing grid services.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modelling Airborne Transmission and Ventilation Impacts of a COVID-19 Outbreak in a Restaurant in Guangzhou, China

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modelling was performed to simulate spatial and temporal airborne pathogen concentrations during an observed COVID-19 outbreak in a restaurant in Guangzhou, China. The reported seating configuration, overlap durations, room ventilation, layout, and dimensions were modelled in the CFD simulations to determine relative exposures and probabilities of infection. Results showed that the trends in the simulated probabilities of infection were consistent with the observed rates of infection at each of the tables surrounding the index patient. Alternative configurations that investigated different boundary conditions and ventilation conditions were also simulated. Increasing the fresh-air percentage to 10%, 50%, and 100% of the supply air reduced the accumulated pathogen mass in the room by an average of ~30%, ~70%, and ~80%, respectively, over 73 min. Overall, the probability of infection was reduced by ~10%, 40%, and 50%, respectively.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estimating the population level impact of a gonococcal vaccine candidate: Predictions from a simple mathematical model

Neisseria gonorrhoeae cross-protection was suggested in a New Zealand meningitis B vaccine. We modeled the potential impact of similar vaccines on gonorrhea prevalence in heterosexuals in the United States. Here, our mathematical model incorporated infection, behavior, and vaccination dynamics. Approximate Bayesian Computation calibrated our model to US prevalence. Primary analyses assumed New Zealand vaccine characteristics: 30% efficacy and 2-year duration of protection. We estimated impact under two vaccine coverages (20%, 50%). Reduction in gonorrhea prevalence ranged from 4.8 to 39.4%, depending on vaccine coverage. Vaccine impact was correlated with both size of the highly sexually active subpopulation and sexual mixing between high and low activity subpopulations. A meningitis vaccine providing low efficacy cross-protection against gonorrhea acquisition and short duration of protection could result in a large reduction in gonorrhea prevalence in the United States. Potential dual protective effects can be considered when making vaccine recommendations.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling the Economic and Environmental Impacts of Land Scarcity Under Deep Uncertainty

Abstract Land scarcity is increasing over time, driven by complex multisector dynamics. The impacts of land scarcity on the economy and environment are multi‐faceted and regional, so any action to convert land will contain inherent tradeoffs. These impacts are complicated by the deeply uncertain evolution of the various sectors influencing land scarcity. A need therefore exists to provide multi‐metric and multi‐sector assessments that are robust to myriad uncertainties. Land conservation effectively limits the supply of productive land, while biofuel consumption increases the demand and competition for that land, and how these dynamics individually and jointly propagate to economic and environmental impacts is an important open question. To address this, we adopt the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) that has representations of various important systems including the climate, macroeconomic, energy, agriculture and land, and water resources systems. Various scenarios of increased land demand (from biofuels) and decreased land supply (from conservation) under various socioeconomic scenarios drawn from the SSPs were simulated using GCAM. We find that while biofuel consumption and land conservation reduce carbon emissions, this comes at the cost of higher food prices, reduced crop production, and increased water withdrawals. Additionally, some regions experience these tradeoffs more severely than others and are more heavily impacted from the same biofuel mandate or by an additional percent of protected land. These and other findings highlight the importance of multisector modeling frameworks that capture many cross‐sector linkages, and acknowledge the important uncertainties confronting the human‐Earth system when making any analysis of land scarcity impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Potential Impact of Flexible CHP on the Future Electric Grid in California

This presentation summarizes results from the “Modeling the Impact of Flexible CHP on the Future Electric Grid In California” report (doi:10.2172/1649545). The analysis estimated the value of flexible CHP to the gird in a somewhat decarbonized grid in California. The analysis found that advanced, flexible CHP can more than double capacity with a 6 year payback period, save site owners up to $760 million, reduce CA-ISOs operating cost by over $700 million, and eliminate hours of grid stress in CA-ISO.

CHP↗
DOE OSTI2024

Development and cross‐validation of a circumference‐based predictive equation to estimate body fat in an active population

Abstract Objective The U.S. Army uses sex‐specific circumference‐based prediction equations to estimate percent body fat (%BF) to evaluate adherence to body composition standards. The equations are periodically evaluated to ensure that they continue to accurately assess %BF in a diverse population. The objective of this study was to develop and validate alternative field expedient equations that may improve upon the current Army Regulation (AR) body fat (%BF) equations. Methods Body size and composition were evaluated in a representatively sampled cohort of 1904 active‐duty Soldiers (1261 Males, 643 Females), using dual‐energy X‐ray absorptiometry (%BF DXA ), and circumferences obtained with 3D imaging and manual measurements. Sex stratified linear prediction equations for %BF were constructed using internal cross validation with %BF DXA as the criterion measure. Prediction equations were evaluated for accuracy and precision using root mean squared error, bias, and intraclass correlations. Equations were externally validated in a convenient sample of 1073 Soldiers. Results Three new equations were developed using one to three circumference sites. The predictive values of waist, abdomen, hip circumference, weight and height were evaluated. Changing from a 3‐site model to a 1‐site model had minimal impact on measurements of model accuracy and performance. Male‐specific equations demonstrated larger gains in accuracy, whereas female‐specific equations resulted in minor improvements in accuracy compared to existing AR equations. Equations performed similarly in the second external validation cohort. Conclusions The equations developed improved upon the current AR equation while demonstrating robust and consistent results within an external population. The 1‐site waist circumference‐based equation utilized the abdominal measurement, which aligns with associated obesity related health outcomes. This could be used to identify individuals at risk for negative health outcomes for earlier intervention.

Taylor, Kathryn M.↗
DOE OSTI2023

ET-AL: Entropy-targeted active learning for bias mitigation in materials data

Growing materials data and data-driven informatics drastically promote the discovery and design of materials. While there are significant advancements in data-driven models, the quality of data resources is less studied despite its huge impact on model performance. In this work, we focus on data bias arising from uneven coverage of materials families in existing knowledge. Observing different diversities among crystal systems in common materials databases, we propose an information entropy-based metric for measuring this bias. To mitigate the bias, we develop an entropy-targeted active learning (ET-AL) framework, which guides the acquisition of new data to improve the diversity of underrepresented crystal systems. We demonstrate the capability of ET-AL for bias mitigation and the resulting improvement in downstream machine learning models. This approach is broadly applicable to data-driven materials discovery, including autonomous data acquisition and dataset trimming to reduce bias, as well as data-driven informatics in other scientific domains.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Direct HCN synthesis via plasma-assisted conversion of methane and nitrogen

Hydrogen cyanide (HCN) is synthesized from ammonia (NH 3 ) and methane (CH 4 ) at ~1200°C over a Pt catalyst. Ammonia synthesis entails several complex, highly emitting processes. Plasma-assisted HCN synthesis directly from CH 4 and nitrogen (N 2 ) could be pivotal for on-demand HCN production. Here, we evaluate the potential of dielectric barrier discharge (DBD) N 2 /CH 4 plasma for decentralized catalyst-free selective HCN production. We demonstrate a single-step conversion of methane and nitrogen to HCN with a 72% yield at <300°C. HCN is favored at low CH 4 concentrations with ethane (C 2 H 6 ) as the secondary product. We propose a first-principles microkinetic model with few electron impact reactions. The model accurately predicts primary product yields and elucidates that methyl radical (·CH 3 ) is a common intermediate in HCN and C 2 H 6 synthesis. Compared to current industrial processes, N 2 /CH 4 DBD plasma can achieve minimal CO 2 emissions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modeling LANSCE Line D and RI Beamlines in Elegant and Impact-T

This technical report describes models in Elegant and Impact-T of two LANSCE high-energy beamlines: LineD and Ring Injection. These two beamlines transport the 800 MeV H- beam from the exit of the 805 MHz Linac to the entrance of the PSR. Computer models of all LANSCE high-energy beamlines exist in Transport but include a limited model of the space charge forces. A motivation for using Elegant as an optional beam dynamics code is that the existing model of the PSR is in Elegant, therefore enabling the modeling of the full beam injection scheme. Also, Elegant is a modern code being used by a large accelerator physics community which makes the calculation results more reliable. The drawback is that Elegant has also a limited space charge force model. Therefore, we have opted to include the Particle-In-Cell (PIC) code Impact-T as an alternate beam dynamics code to verify the Elegant calculations. We will use the new Line D and RI models to study beam halo in the transport leading into the PSR, and to evaluate collimation schemes as part of the PSR upgrade. The new models can also be readily used in support of other LANSCE activities.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Examining the Reactions of Ethanolamine’s Thermal Degradation Compounds in Carbon Capture through 1 H NMR and 13 C NMR

In amine scrubbing carbon capture, concerns about amine solvent degradation include whether it can affect the ability of the solvent to capture CO 2 . This study examines the interactions between the three most reported monoethanolamine (MEA) thermal degradation compounds namely, oxazolidine-2-one (OZD), N-(2-hydroxyethyl)-ethylenediamine (HEEDA), and N-(2- hydroxyethyl)-imidazoline-2-one (HEIA) with CO 2 in the presence and absence of MEA. We compared 1 H NMR, 13 C NMR, and heteronuclear single-quantum coherence (HSQC) NMR for neat OZD, HEEDA, and HEIA samples with CO 2 -loaded samples to observe changes in protonation and unique carbamate species formation. We found that OZD and HEIA did not directly react with CO 2 or undergo proton shifting based on our comparison of the neat OZD and HEIA samples with CO 2 -loaded spectra. However, we observed that the OZD can protonate when sparged with CO 2 in the presence of MEA, which suggests that the OZD acts as an intermediate. The NMR spectra for HEEDA indicated that HEEDA directly reacts with CO 2 at both amino groups and can protonate. In the presence of MEA, HEEDA and MEA can act like a solvent blend, resulting in multiple carbamates forming within the solvent. The neat HEIA spectrum, compared with CO 2 -loaded HEIA spectra, revealed similar results as OZD, where it does not react with CO 2 or protonate directly. However, HEIA does not protonate in the presence of MEA. These degradation compound reactions can increase the number of general equilibrium reactions during carbon capture and impact the model MEA solvent. This work helps provide a more complete picture of the reactions as the solvent degrades. Although this study examines CO 2 effects on thermal degradation products for MEA, other amines such as piperazine or 1- amino-3-propanol will degrade, and the degradation may speciate similarly with CO 2 . Furthermore, this study can impact and improve process models by assessing the degradation compounds’ reactions with CO 2 and potentially incorporating them into the model based on a neat solvent.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2024

HIPSTER (Harmonized Impacts across Products, Scenarios, and Technologies for Environmental and Resource metrics) [SWR-24-17]

Development of a prototype, code-based life cycle assessment framework, the Harmonized Impacts across Products, Scenarios, and Technologies for Environmental and Resource metrics (HIPSTER), to coherently assess outputs of prospective NREL models across environmental and resource use metrics. Eventually, HIPSTER is aimed to also cover socioeconomic and justice metrics. At present, NREL model scenario impact assessments are performed incoherently, as they as based on varying assumptions and inputs, specifically life cycle inventories, and cover different system boundaries. HIPSTER was created to align the assumptions and boundaries with those of cradle-to-grave life cycle assessment. In FY22, HIPSTER was successfully applied using scenarios from the ReEDS™ model, NREL's flagship capacity expansion model resulting in cradle-to-grace time-series life cycle impacts across LCA midpoints and resource use metrics.

Ghosh, Tapajyoti↗