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At least 289 records · Page 16
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Challenges and Opportunities in Magnetospheric Space Weather Prediction

Abstract Space Weather is the study of the dynamics of the coupled Solar‐Terrestrial environment, as these dynamics impact technological systems and human activity. This paper reviews a selection of the advances, challenges, and new opportunities for magnetospheric space weather, and while the focus is on specific phenomena, many other aspects of space weather will have similar challenges and needs. As a scientific field with direct applications, the field of space weather is partly driven by imperatives from both policy and operations. We provide an introduction to some of the context in which the field exists and discuss how this might shape future developments and norms within the space weather enterprise. We briefly examine benchmarking, as a policy and operationally driven activity, as it provides immediate societal relevance and an opportunity to stretch scientific understanding. As numerical space weather prediction now becomes routine, and exascale computing is in the near future, we identify challenges relating to computational expense and big data, capturing and accounting for uncertainties, and specification of boundary conditions. Here, as with the observations supporting numerical space weather prediction, the key challenge lies in extending the lead time of predictions. We also discuss the role of data, particularly in regard to model validation and empirical modeling. Due to the growing societal impact of space weather, we also examine the relationships between space weather and its terrestrial counterpart and look at the importance of continuous evaluation, monitoring progress in predictive capability, and communication with researchers, forecasters, and end users.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Nitrate Removal Across Ecogeomorphic Zones in Wax Lake Delta, Louisiana (USA)

Human activities have increased nitrate export from rivers, degrading coastal water quality. At deltaic river mouths, the flow of water through wetlands increases nitrate removal, and the spatial organization of removal rates influences coastal water quality. To understand the spatial distribution of nitrate removal in a river-dominated delta, in this study we deployed 23 benthic chambers across ecogeomorphic zones with varying elevation, vegetation, and sediment properties in Wax Lake Delta (Louisiana, USA) in June 2018. Regression analyses indicate that normalized difference vegetation index is a useful predictor of summertime nitrate removal. Mass transfer velocity were approximately three times greater on a vegetated submerged levee (13 mm hr –1 ), where normalized difference vegetation index was greatest, compared to other locations (4.6 mm hr –1 ). Two methods were developed to upscale nitrate removal across the delta. The flooded-delta method integrates spatially explicit potential removal rates across submerged portions of the delta and suggests that intermediate elevations on the delta—including submerged levees—are responsible for 70% of potential nitrate removal despite covering only 33% of the flooded area. The channel network method treats the delta as a network of river channels and suggests that although secondary channels are more efficient than primary channels at removing received nitrate, primary channels collectively contribute more to overall removal because they convey more of the total nitrate load. The two upscaling methods predict similar rates of nitrate removal, equivalent to less than 4% of nitrate entering the delta. To protect coastal waters against high nitrate loads, management policies should aim to reduce upstream nutrient loads.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Fast Climate Responses to Aerosol Emission Reductions During the COVID-19 Pandemic

The reduced human activities and associated decreases in aerosol emissions during the COVID-19 pandemic are expected to affect climate. Assuming emission changes during lockdown, back-to-work and post-lockdown stages of COVID-19, climate model simulations show a surface warming over continental regions of the Northern Hemisphere. In January–March, there was an anomalous warming of 0.05–0.15 K in eastern China, and the surface temperature increase was 0.04–0.07 K in Europe, eastern United States, and South Asia in March–May. The longer the emission reductions undergo, the warmer the climate would become. The emission reductions explain the observed temperature increases of 10–40% over eastern China relative to 2019. A southward shift of the ITCZ is also seen in the simulations. This study provides an insight into the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on global and regional climate and implications for immediate actions to mitigate fast global warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Contrasting phase changes of precipitation annual cycle between land and ocean under global warming

The annual cycle of precipitation is a fundamental aspect of the water cycle with global ramification. Climate warming induces a robust phase delay1-5 in zonal mean tropical precipitation concomitant with an amplitude enhancement6-8. Here, we find a large land ocean contrast in the phase response of precipitation annual cycle, with a phase delay over land and a phase advance over ocean as climate warms. The phase delay over land is mainly attributed to the increase in the effective heat capacity of the atmosphere, while the phase advance over ocean is associated with a precipitation shift from land to ocean during the peak rainy season. Through the energetic constraint, this precipitation shift is closely related to the opposite changes in the amplitude of surface temperature annual cycle between land and ocean, both as consequences of basic climate feedback processes under global warming: weakening of the summer trade wind over the tropical ocean increases the surface temperature seasonal amplitude through evaporation, while an increase of the atmospheric effective heat capacity and surface cooling feedback induces opposite temperature amplitude changes over the tropical land. The opposite precipitation phase changes between land and ocean will have myriad implications for terrestrial/marine ecosystems and human activities.

Song, Fengfei↗
DOE OSTI2021

Aquifer Monitoring Using Ambient Seismic Noise Recorded With Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) Deployed on Dark Fiber

Abstract Groundwater is a critical resource for human activities worldwide, and a vital component of many natural ecosystems. However, the state and dynamics of water‐bearing aquifers remain uncertain, mostly due to the paucity of subsurface data at high spatial and temporal resolution. Here, we show that analysis of infrastructure‐generated ambient seismic noise acquired on distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) arrays has potential as a tool to track variations in seismic velocities (d v / v ) caused by groundwater level fluctuations. We analyze 5 months of ambient noise acquired along an unused, 23 km‐long telecommunication fiber‐optic cable in the Sacramento Valley, CA, a so‐called “dark fiber." Three array subsections, ∼6 km apart, are processed and the stretching technique is applied to retrieve daily d v / v beneath each location. Near the Sacramento river, d v / v variations in the order of 2%–3% correlate with precipitation events and fluctuations in river stage of ∼1.5 m. In contrast, regions away (2.5 km) from the river do not experience large d v / v variations. These observations reveal short‐scale spatial variability in aquifer dynamics captured by this approach. Dispersion analysis and surface wave inversion of noise gathers reveal that seismic velocity perturbations occur at depths of 10–30 m. Rock physics modeling confirms that observed d v / v are linked to pore pressure changes at these depths, caused by groundwater table fluctuations. Our results suggest that DAS combined with ambient noise interferometry provides a means of tracking aquifer dynamics at high spatial and temporal resolutions at local to regional scales, relevant for effective groundwater resource management.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

On the Emergence of Human Influence on Surface Air Temperature Changes Over India

Human activities in terms of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and aerosols resulting from the combustion of fossil fuels have been shown to have affected the temperature of the Earth on global and continental scales. The surface air temperature (TAS) over India has also been observed to be increasing over the last 100 years. Understanding the underlying causes of regional climate change over India can help in developing appropriate mitigation and adaptation strategies. Differentiating signals of externally forced climate changes from the noise of natural internal variability generally becomes more difficult as spatial scale reduces. Therefore detecting and attributing the influence of external forcings such as GHGs and aerosols is harder at local and regional scales. In this study, we applied a detection and attribution (D&A) method to study annual and seasonal mean TAS over the Indian region. We found that the observed warming over India from 1906 to 2005 cannot be explained by natural climate variability alone. We found that the warming is largely driven by the increase in GHGs, and partially offset by regional anthropogenic emissions of aerosols. These results were confirmed for the shorter 1956–2005 period, but results were sensitive to the choice of observational data set. Furthermore, the changes cannot be explained by internal climate variability or natural external forcings alone, but are compatible with the responses to combined anthropogenic GHG and aerosol forcings.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Cutover Peat Limits Methane Production Causing Low Emission at a Restored Peatland

Abstract Peatland degradation due to human activities is contributing to rising atmospheric CO 2 levels. Restoring the carbon (C) sink function in degraded peatlands and preventing further stored C losses is a key climate mitigation strategy, given the global scale of peatland disturbance. Active restoration involving a combination of rewetting and vegetation reestablishment at a post‐extraction peatland in Canada has been shown to successfully re‐establish net CO 2 uptake rates similar to undisturbed peatlands within a decade or two. However, lower than expected CH 4 emissions suggest recovery of belowground C cycling processes may lag behind the recovery of the surface net flux. Using closed chamber measurements over a warm season, we determined that restored Sphagnum , which covers two thirds of the site, was a null source of CH 4 . Emissions from the restored site were primarily attributed to vascular plant substrate inputs, measured as acetate, and plant‐mediated transport. The C isotopic fractionation factor for CH 4 and CO 2 in the pore water from the restored former peat field suggested reduced hydrogenotrophic CH 4 production deeper in the cutover peat profile (0.8 m depth). In contrast, isotopic fractionation in the former drainage ditches showed a balance of acetoclastic and hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis deeper in the profile, indicative of some bulk peat C turnover. This study suggests that the legacy of substrate quality in the cutover peat can reduce the climate warming impact of newly restored peatlands through a reduction in CH 4 production and thus emission.

Nugent, Kelly A.↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Typology for Characterizing Human Action in MultiSector Dynamics Models

The role of individual and collective human agency is increasingly recognized as a prominent and arguably paramount determinant in shaping the behavior, trajectory, and vulnerability of multisector systems. This human influence operates at multiple scales: from short-term (hourly to daily) to long-term (annually to centennial) timescales, and from the local to the global, pushing systems towards either desirable or undesirable outcomes. However, the effort to represent human systems in multisector models has been fragmented across philosophical, methodological, and disciplinary lines. To cohere insights across diverse modeling approaches, we present a new typology for classifying how human actors are represented in the broad suite of coupled human-natural system models that are applied in MultiSector Dynamics (MSD) research. The typology conceptualizes a “sector” as a system-of-systems that includes a diverse group of human actors, defined across individual to collective social levels, involved in governing, provisioning, and utilizing products, goods, or services towards some human end. We trace the salient features of modeled representations of human systems by organizing the typology around three key questions: 1) Who are the modeled actors in MSD systems? 2) What are their modeled actions? 3) How and for what purpose are these actors and actions operationalized in a computational model? The typology is used to critically examine existing models and chart the frontier of future human systems modeling for MSD research.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Estimating Arctic Ocean Acoustic Travel Times Using an Earth System Model

Abstract The hydroacoustic environment of a rapidly warming Arctic Ocean will be impacted by interconnected changes in the physical environment and increased human activity. Previous acoustic calculations will need to be updated to reflect current and future conditions. Earth System Models are important tools for making projections of changes in a wide range of physical processes under future climates. We present a comparison of Arctic acoustic travel times based on output from the Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model with measured travel times from the 2016–2017 Canada Basin Acoustic Propagation Experiment and with travel times predicted by empirical temperature and salinity observations. This comparison allows us to test the impact of changes in Arctic sound speed profiles on acoustic travel times and connects Arctic hydroacoustics with the changing Arctic environment as described by a climate model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Projecting Changes in the Frequency and Magnitude of Ozone Pollution Events Under Uncertain Climate Sensitivity

Abstract Climate change is projected to worsen ozone pollution over many populated regions, with larger impacts at higher concentrations. More intense and frequent ozone episodes risk setbacks to human health and environmental policy achievements. However, assessing these changes is complicated by uncertain climate sensitivity, closely related to climate model response, and internal variability in simulations projecting climate's influence on air quality. Here, leveraging a global modeling framework that one‐way couples a human activity model, an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, and an atmospheric chemistry model, we investigate the role of climate sensitivity in climate‐induced changes to high ozone pollution episodes in the United States using multiple greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, representations of climate sensitivity, and initial condition members. We bias correct and evaluate historical model simulations, identifying modeled and observed O 3 episodes using extreme value theory, and extend the approach to projections of mid‐ and end‐century climate impacts. Results show that the influence of climate sensitivity can be as significant as that of greenhouse gas emissions scenario absent precursor emissions changes. Climate change is projected to increase the magnitude of the highest annually occurring O 3 concentrations by over 2.3 ppb on average across the U.S. at mid‐century under a high climate sensitivity and moderate emissions scenario, but the increase is limited to less than 0.3 ppb under lower climate sensitivity. Further, we show that areas in the U.S. currently meeting air quality standards risk being pushed into non‐compliance due to a climate‐induced increase in frequency of high ozone days.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2024

Constraining Present‐Day Anthropogenic Total Iron Emissions Using Model and Observations

Abstract Iron emissions from human activities, such as oil combustion and smelting, affect the Earth's climate and marine ecosystems. These emissions are difficult to quantify accurately due to a lack of observations, particularly in remote ocean regions. In this study, we used long‐term, near‐source observations in areas with a dominance of anthropogenic iron emissions in various parts of the world to better estimate the total amount of anthropogenic iron emissions. We also used a statistical source apportionment method to identify the anthropogenic components and their sub‐sources from bulk aerosol observations in the United States. We find that the estimates of anthropogenic iron emissions are within a factor of 3 in most regions compared to previous inventory estimates. Under‐ or overestimation varied by region and depended on the number of sites, interannual variability, and the statistical filter choice. Smelting‐related iron emissions are overestimated by a factor of 1.5 in East Asia compared to previous estimates. More long‐term iron observations and the consideration of the influence of dust and wildfires could help reduce the uncertainty in anthropogenic iron emissions estimates.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

DiffESM: Conditional Emulation of Temperature and Precipitation in Earth System Models With 3D Diffusion Models

Earth system models (ESMs) are essential for understanding the interaction between human activities and the Earth's climate. However, the computational demands of ESMs often limit the number of simulations that can be run, hindering the robust analysis of risks associated with extreme weather events. While low-cost climate emulators have emerged as an alternative to emulate ESMs and enable rapid analysis of future climate, many of these emulators only provide output on at most a monthly frequency. This temporal resolution is insufficient for analyzing events that require daily characterization, such as heat waves or heavy precipitation. We propose using diffusion models, a class of generative deep learning models, to effectively downscale ESM output from a monthly to a daily frequency. Trained on a handful of ESM realizations, reflecting a wide range of radiative forcings, our DiffESM model takes monthly mean precipitation or temperature as input, and is capable of producing daily values with statistical characteristics close to ESM output. Combined with a low-cost emulator providing monthly means, this approach requires only a small fraction of the computational resources needed to run a large ensemble. We evaluate model behavior using a number of extreme metrics, showing that DiffESM closely matches the spatio-temporal behavior of the ESM output it emulates in terms of the frequency and spatial characteristics of phenomena such as heat waves, dry spells, or rainfall intensity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Global Biogeochemical Cycle of Rhenium

Here, this paper is the first comprehensive synthesis of what is currently known about the different natural and anthropogenic fluxes of rhenium (Re) on Earth's surface. We highlight the significant role of anthropogenic mobilization of Re, which is an important consideration in utilizing Re in the context of a biogeochemical tracer or proxy. The largest natural flux of Re derives from chemical weathering and riverine transport to the ocean (dissolved = 62 × 10 6 g yr -1 and particulate = 5 × 10 6 g yr -1 ). This review reports a new global average [Re] of 16 ± 2 pmol L -1 , or 10 ± 1 pmol L -1 for the inferred pre-anthropogenic concentration without human impact, for rivers draining to the ocean. Human activity via mining (including secondary mobilization), coal combustion, and petroleum combustion mobilize approximately 560 × 10 6 g yr -1 Re, which is more than any natural flux of Re. There are several poorly constrained fluxes of Re that merit further research, including: submarine groundwater discharge, precipitation (terrestrial and oceanic), magma degassing, and hydrothermal activity. The mechanisms and the main host phases responsible for releasing (sources) or sequestrating (sinks) these fluxes remain poorly understood. This study also highlights the use of dissolved [Re] concentrations as a tracer of oxidation of petrogenic organic carbon, and stable Re isotopes as proxies for changes in global redox conditions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Exploring Climate-Disease Connections in Geopolitical Versus Ecological Regions: The Case of West Nile Virus in the United States

Many infectious disease forecasting models in the United States (US) are built with data partitioned into geopolitical regions centered on human activity as opposed to regions defined by natural ecosystems; although useful for data collection and intervention, this has the potential to mask biological relationships between the environment and disease. We explored this concept by analyzing the correlations between climate and West Nile virus (WNV) case data aggregated to geopolitical and ecological regions. We compared correlations between minimum, maximum, and mean annual temperature; precipitation; and annual WNV neuroinvasive disease (WNND) case data from 2005 to 2019 when partitioned into (a) climate regions defined by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and (b) Level I ecoregions defined by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). We found that correlations between climate and WNND in NOAA climate regions and EPA ecoregions were often contradictory in both direction and magnitude, with EPA ecoregions more often supporting previously established biological hypotheses and environmental dynamics underlying vector-borne disease transmission. Using ecological regions to examine the relationships between climate and disease cases can enhance the predictive power of forecasts at various scales, motivating a conceptual shift in large-scale analyses from geopolitical frameworks to more ecologically meaningful regions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Aerosol-boundary-layer-monsoon interactions amplify semi-direct effect of biomass smoke on low cloud formation in Southeast Asia

Low clouds play a key role in the Earth-atmosphere energy balance and influence agricultural production and solar-power generation. Smoke aloft has been found to enhance marine stratocumulus through aerosol-cloud interactions, but its role in regions with strong human activities and complex monsoon circulation remains unclear. Here we show that biomass burning aerosols aloft strongly increase the low cloud coverage over both land and ocean in subtropical southeastern Asia. The degree of this enhancement and its spatial extent are comparable to that in the Southeast Atlantic, even though the total biomass burning emissions in Southeast Asia are only one-fifth of those in Southern Africa. We find that a synergetic effect of aerosol-cloud-boundary layer interaction with the monsoon is the main reason for the strong semi-direct effect and enhanced low cloud formation in southeastern Asia.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Abrupt emissions reductions during COVID-19 contributed to record summer rainfall in China

Record rainfall and severe flooding struck eastern China in the summer of 2020. The extreme summer rainfall occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic, which started in China in early 2020 and spread rapidly across the globe. By disrupting human activities, substantial reductions in anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols might have affected regional precipitation in many ways. Here, we investigate such connections and show that the abrupt emissions reductions during the pandemic strengthened the summer atmospheric convection over eastern China, resulting in a positive sea level pressure anomaly over northwestern Pacific Ocean. The latter enhanced moisture convergence to eastern China and further intensified rainfall in that region. Modeling experiments show that the reduction in aerosols had a stronger impact on precipitation than the decrease of greenhouse gases did. We conclude that through abrupt emissions reductions, the COVID-19 pandemic contributed importantly to the 2020 extreme summer rainfall in eastern China.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

A thousand-genome panel retraces the global spread and adaptation of a major fungal crop pathogen

Human activity impacts the evolutionary trajectories of many species worldwide. Global trade of agricultural goods contributes to the dispersal of pathogens reshaping their genetic makeup and providing opportunities for virulence gains. Understanding how pathogens surmount control strategies and cope with new climates is crucial to predicting the future impact of crop pathogens. Here, we address this by assembling a global thousand-genome panel of Zymoseptoria tritici, a major fungal pathogen of wheat reported in all production areas worldwide. We identify the global invasion routes and ongoing genetic exchange of the pathogen among wheat-growing regions. We find that the global expansion was accompanied by increased activity of transposable elements and weakened genomic defenses. Finally, we find significant standing variation for adaptation to new climates encountered during the global spread. Our work shows how large population genomic panels enable deep insights into the evolutionary trajectory of a major crop pathogen.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A general framework for nitrogen deposition effects on soil respiration in global forests

Since the Industrial Revolution, human activities have altered atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition to global forests, affecting carbon dioxide emissions from soils (soil respiration or SR) – one of the largest land-atmosphere carbon fluxes. However, experimental studies have demonstrated both positive and negative effects of N deposition on SR in global forests, leading to debates on how N deposition increases or decreases SR. We developed a framework for generalizing SR responses to N deposition using synthesized data from 168 N addition experiments worldwide and observed SR across the global natural N deposition gradient. The findings indicate that N deposition decreased SR in 2.9% of global forested areas, particularly in eastern China, western Europe, and the eastern USA. However, the net effect of N deposition increased the global forest SR by ~5% (1.7 ± 0.1 PgC yr –1 ). If N pollution could be effectively controlled, global forest SR would decrease, potentially contributing to a reduction in the terrestrial carbon emissions.

Cen, Xiaoyu [National Forestry and Grassland Admin↗