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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 289 records · Page 16
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2004

Neural network uncertainty assessment using Bayesian statistics: a remote sensing application

Neural network (NN) techniques have proved successful for many regression problems, in particular for remote sensing; however, uncertainty estimates are rarely provided. In this article, a Bayesian technique to evaluate uncertainties of the NN parameters (i.e., synaptic weights) is first presented. In contrast to more traditional approaches based on point estimation of the NN weights, we assess uncertainties on such estimates to monitor the robustness of the NN model. These theoretical developments are illustrated by applying them to the problem of retrieving surface skin temperature, microwave surface emissivities, and integrated water vapor content from a combined analysis of satellite microwave and infrared observations over land. The weight uncertainty estimates are then used to compute analytically the uncertainties in the network outputs (i.e., error bars and correlation structure of these errors). Such quantities are very important for evaluating any application of an NN model. The uncertainties on the NN Jacobians are then considered in the third part of this article. Used for regression fitting, NN models can be used effectively to represent highly nonlinear, multivariate functions. In this situation, most emphasis is put on estimating the output errors, but almost no attention has been given to errors associated with the internal structure of the regression model. The complex structure of dependency inside the NN is the essence of the model, and assessing its quality, coherency, and physical character makes all the difference between a blackbox model with small output errors and a reliable, robust, and physically coherent model. Such dependency structures are described to the first order by the NN Jacobians: they indicate the sensitivity of one output with respect to the inputs of the model for given input data. We use a Monte Carlo integration procedure to estimate the robustness of the NN Jacobians. A regularization strategy based on principal component analysis is proposed to suppress the multicollinearities in order to make these Jacobians robust and physically meaningful.

Neural Networks (Computer)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Augmenting machine learning of energy landscapes with local structural information

We present a machine learning approach for accurately predicting formation energies of binary compounds in the context of crystal structure predictions. The success of any machine learning model depends significantly on the choice of representation used to encode the relevant physical information into machine-learnable data. We test different representation schemes based on partial radial and angular distribution functions (RDF+ADF) on Al–Ni and Cd–Te structures generated using our genetic algorithm for structure prediction. We observe a remarkable improvement in predictive accuracy upon transitioning from global to atom-centered representations, resulting in a threefold decrease in prediction errors. We show that a support vector regression model using a combination of atomic radial and angular distribution functions performs best at the formation energy prediction task, providing small root mean squared errors of 3.9 meV/atom and 10.9 meV/atom for Al–Ni and Cd–Te, respectively. We test the performance of our models against common traditional descriptors and find that RDF- and ADF-based representations significantly outperform many of those in the prediction of formation energies. The high accuracy of predictions makes our machine learning models great candidates for the exploration of energy landscapes.

Honrao, Shreyas J. (ORCID:0000000166155257)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic learning and updating of a digital twin for composite material systems

This paper presents an approach for characterizing and estimating statistical dependence between a large number of observables in a composite material system. Conditional regression is carried out using the estimated joint density function, permitting a systematic exploration of interdependence between fine scale and coarse observables that can be used for both prognosis and design of complex material systems. An example demonstrates the integration of experimental data with a computational database. The statistical approach is based on the probabilistic learning on manifolds recently developed by the authors. This approach leverages intrinsic structure detected through diffusion on graphs with projected stochastic differential equations to generate samples constrained to that structure.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Qualitative trend analysis based on a mixed-integer representation

Shape constrained spline fitting is a useful method to impose prior knowledge onto flexible semi-parametric models during parameter estimation. Most typically, the function shape is imposed through order restrictions on the regression coefficients. The intended shape is considered known or selected based on heuristic rules. In this study, we present a method to estimate the optimal set of order restrictions to segment a univariate data series into episodes with distinct shapes. This is also known as the qualitative trend analysis (QTA) problem. The obtained solution uses a trade-off between lack-of-fit and model complexity. Further, our practical implementation takes inspiration from the generalized order restricted information criterion (GORIC) for inequality-constrained model selection. From this, one learns (a) that QTA can be formulated as a mixed-integer quadratic program (MIQP) and (b) that the newly proposed mixed order restricted information criterion (MORIC) enables optimal segmentation. This is illustrated through didactic case studies.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2018

The impact of physicochemical property interactions of iso -octane/ethanol blends on ignition timescales

This work presents new measurements of liquid fuel ignition delay times of iso-octane and ethanol fuel blends obtained from an ignition quality tester at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL IQT), which are compared to previous ignition delay data from the University of Michigan rapid compression facility (UM RCF), at the same experimental conditions. Pressure-time histories were used to determine liquid fuel ignition delays at global stoichiometric non-premixed conditions for iso-octane, ethanol and iso-octane/ethanol blends of 25, 50, 75% by volume in mixtures of 10% oxygen diluted in nitrogen. Temperatures ranging from 880 to 970 K were studied at a pressure of 10 atm. By comparing total ignition delay times from the NREL IQT with chemical ignition delay times from the UM RCF, the contributions of physical phenomena were quantified as representative time scales for spray injection, breakup and evaporation processes, and for gas-phase turbulent mixing. Regression analyses were developed for ignition time scales as function of blend level and charge temperature. Non-dimensional analyses were also carried out to determine the relative effects of physical time scales with respect to chemical ignition delay times.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Predicting the creep-rupture lifetime of a cast austenitic stainless steel using Larson-Miller and Wilshire parametric approaches

An experimental dataset of just over 100 creep tests of a cast austenitic stainless steel, CF8C-Plus, was analyzed by two temperature-compensated parametric models (Larson-Miller, Wilshire et al.) to predict long-term lifetimes as functions of temperature and stress. The dataset and associated regression analyses showed greater scatter than typically found in recent similar studies of wrought Ni-based alloys by the same two models and was attributed to the microstructural inhomogeneity of the cast stainless steel. Qualitatively, the Larson-Miller formalism showed greater lifetime prediction accuracy than the Wilshire approach, with the latter model's predictive ability being particularly degraded by the presence of two very significant outlier results. This observation suggests that the Larson-Miller approach is more robust when treating rupture-time datasets that show particularly wide experimental scatter. Despite the differences in the overall predictive ability, both models yielded similar predictions of the applied stress at which CF8C-Plus would have a creep-limited lifetime of 100,000 h when loaded below the yield point.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Parsimonious Potential Energy Surface Expansions Using Dictionary Learning with Multipass Greedy Selection

Potential energy surfaces fit with basis set expansions have been shown to provide accurate representations of electronic energies and have enabled a variety of high-accuracy dynamics, kinetics, and spectroscopy applications. The number of terms in these expansions scales poorly with system size, a drawback that challenges their use for systems with more than similar to 10 atoms. A solution is presented here using dictionary learning. Subsets of the full set of conventional basis functions are optimized using a newly developed multipass greedy regression method inspired by forward and backward selection methods from the statistics, signal processing, and machine learning literatures. Here, the optimized representations have accuracies comparable to the full set but are 1 or more orders of magnitude smaller, and notably, the number of terms in the optimized multipass greedy expansions scales approximately linearly with the number of atoms.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Infrared spectroscopy data- and physics-driven machine learning for characterizing surface microstructure of complex materials

There is a need to characterize complex materials and their dynamics under reaction conditions to accelerate materials design. Adsorbate vibrational excitations are selective to adsorbate/surface interactions and infrared (IR) spectra associated with activating adsorbate vibrational modes are accurate, capture details of most modes, and can be obtained operando. Current interpretation depends on heuristic peak assignments for simple spectra, precluding the possibility of obtaining detailed structural information. Here, we combine data-based approaches with chemistry-dependent problem formulation to develop physics-driven surrogate models that generate synthetic IR spectra from first-principles calculations. Using synthetic IR spectra of carbon monoxide on platinum, we implement multinomial regression via neural network ensembles to learn probability distributions functions (pdfs) that describe adsorption sites and quantify uncertainty. We use these pdfs to infer detailed surface microstructure from experimental spectra and extend this methodology to other systems as a first step towards characterizing complex interfaces and closing the materials gap.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2021

Machine learning-based microstructure prediction during laser sintering of alumina

Abstract Predicting material’s microstructure under new processing conditions is essential in advanced manufacturing and materials science. This is because the material’s microstructure hugely influences the material’s properties. We demonstrate an elegant machine learning algorithm that faithfully predicts the microstructure under new conditions, without the need of knowing the governing laws. We name this algorithm, RCWGAN-GP, which is regression-based conditional generative adversarial networks with Wasserstein loss function and gradient penalty. This algorithm was trained with experimental SEM micrographs from laser-sintered alumina under various laser powers. The RCWGAN-GP realistically regenerates the SEM micrographs under the trained laser powers. Impressively, it also faithfully predicts the alumina’s microstructure under unexplored laser powers. The predicted microstructure features, including the morphology of the sintered particles and the pores, match the experimental SEM micrographs very well. We further quantitatively examined the prediction accuracy of the RCWGAN-GP. We trained the algorithm with computer-created micrograph datasets of secondary-phase growth governed by the well-known Johnson–Mehl–Avrami (JMA) equation. The RCWGAN-GP accurately regenerates the micrographs at the trained time series, in terms of the grains’ shapes, sizes, and spatial distributions. More importantly, the predicted secondary phase fraction accurately follows the JMA curve.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Semi-empirical model for Henry’s law constant of noble gases in molten salts

Henry’s law constant, which describes the proportionality of dissolved gas to partial pressure of free gas in liquid–gas equilibrium systems, can also be applied to mass transport applications. In this work, we investigated an approach for determining the solubility of noble gases in a molten salt liquid utilizing the equilibrium concept of Henry’s gas constant. Henry’s gas constant is described as a mathematical function dependent on the van der Waals radius of the noble gas and the temperature of the molten salt. The alteration in Gibbs free energy encompasses contributions from both surface and volume energies. Enthalpy and entropy are deduced from these surface and volume energies in the Gibbs free energy formulation. A comparative analysis was conducted between the conventional method and our proposed model. Moreover, useful chemical properties can be determined from examination of surface and volume energies. Our findings provide an accurate and general theory of Gibbs free energy that can be validated experimentally based on the model proposed herein. This work unifies the prediction of Henry gas constant and subsequently the entropy and enthalpy calculation for noble gases in a molten salt solution to a single functional form using van der Waals radius of the gas and temperature of the system. This functional form is then used to perform a multiple regression method to find two parameters corresponding to the surface energy and volume energy. These two parameters are consistent between all combinations of noble gas and molten salt.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

A compact x-ray spectrometer for measurements of electron temperature distributions in inertial confinement fusion implosions at OMEGA

The Wedge Range Filter (WRF), commonly used for proton spectroscopy at the OMEGA Laser Facility and National Ignition Facility, is adapted to measure the x-ray continuum spectrum through transmission measurement using a continuous-gradient filter. Continuum x rays emitted from the hotspot of an implosion contain information about the plasma composition and electron temperature. The WRF data are leveraged to probe this distribution, specifically the electron temperature distribution. In this work, the data recorded with the WRF are forward modeled using a temperature distribution model folded with the WRF response function. An uncertainty analysis is conducted through a Bayesian regression algorithm using a Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampler. This analysis enables the uncertainties in the instrument response to be folded into the uncertainty estimation of the electron temperature and absolute x-ray emission. Data analysis for a series of OMEGA implosions is presented and compared with radiation hydrodynamic simulations.

Lasers↗
DOE OSTI2015

SU-C-304-05: Use of Local Noise Power Spectrum and Wavelets in Comprehensive EPID Quality Assurance

Purpose: As EPIDs are increasingly used for IMRT QA and real-time treatment verification, comprehensive quality assurance (QA) of EPIDs becomes critical. Current QA with phantoms such as the Las Vegas and PIPSpro™ can fail in the early detection of EPID artifacts. Beyond image quality assessment, we propose a quantitative methodology using local noise power spectrum (NPS) to characterize image noise and wavelet transform to identify bad pixels and inter-subpanel flat-fielding artifacts. Methods: A total of 93 image sets including bar-pattern images and open exposure images were collected from four iViewGT a-Si EPID systems over three years. Quantitative metrics such as modulation transform function (MTF), NPS and detective quantum efficiency (DQE) were computed for each image set. Local 2D NPS was calculated for each subpanel. A 1D NPS was obtained by radial averaging the 2D NPS and fitted to a power-law function. R-square and slope of the linear regression analysis were used for panel performance assessment. Haar wavelet transformation was employed to identify pixel defects and non-uniform gain correction across subpanels. Results: Overall image quality was assessed with DQE based on empirically derived area under curve (AUC) thresholds. Using linear regression analysis of 1D NPS, panels with acceptable flat fielding were indicated by r-square between 0.8 and 1, and slopes of −0.4 to −0.7. However, for panels requiring flat fielding recalibration, r-square values less than 0.8 and slopes from +0.2 to −0.4 were observed. The wavelet transform successfully identified pixel defects and inter-subpanel flat fielding artifacts. Standard QA with the Las Vegas and PIPSpro phantoms failed to detect these artifacts. Conclusion: The proposed QA methodology is promising for the early detection of imaging and dosimetric artifacts of EPIDs. Local NPS can accurately characterize the noise level within each subpanel, while the wavelet transforms can detect bad pixels and inter-subpanel flat fielding artifacts.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Use of local noise power spectrum and wavelet analysis in quantitative image quality assurance for EPIDs

Purpose: To investigate the use of local noise power spectrum (NPS) to characterize image noise and wavelet analysis to isolate defective pixels and inter-subpanel flat-fielding artifacts for quantitative quality assurance (QA) of electronic portal imaging devices (EPIDs). Methods: A total of 93 image sets including custom-made bar-pattern images and open exposure images were collected from four iViewGT a-Si EPID systems over three years. Global quantitative metrics such as modulation transform function (MTF), NPS, and detective quantum efficiency (DQE) were computed for each image set. Local NPS was also calculated for individual subpanels by sampling region of interests within each subpanel of the EPID. The 1D NPS, obtained by radially averaging the 2D NPS, was fitted to a power-law function. The r-square value of the linear regression analysis was used as a singular metric to characterize the noise properties of individual subpanels of the EPID. The sensitivity of the local NPS was first compared with the global quantitative metrics using historical image sets. It was then compared with two commonly used commercial QA systems with images collected after applying two different EPID calibration methods (single-level gain and multilevel gain). To detect isolated defective pixels and inter-subpanel flat-fielding artifacts, Haar wavelet transform was applied on the images. Results: Global quantitative metrics including MTF, NPS, and DQE showed little change over the period of data collection. On the contrary, a strong correlation between the local NPS (r-square values) and the variation of the EPID noise condition was observed. The local NPS analysis indicated image quality improvement with the r-square values increased from 0.80 ± 0.03 (before calibration) to 0.85 ± 0.03 (after single-level gain calibration) and to 0.96 ± 0.03 (after multilevel gain calibration), while the commercial QA systems failed to distinguish the image quality improvement between the two calibration methods. With wavelet analysis, defective pixels and inter-subpanel flat-fielding artifacts were clearly identified as spikes after thresholding the inversely transformed images. Conclusions: The proposed local NPS (r-square values) showed superior sensitivity to the noise level variations of individual subpanels compared with global quantitative metrics such as MTF, NPS, and DQE. Wavelet analysis was effective in detecting isolated defective pixels and inter-subpanel flat-fielding artifacts. The proposed methods are promising for the early detection of imaging artifacts of EPIDs.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The executive disruption model of tinnitus distress: Model validation in two independent datasets using factor score regression

This study presents the executive disruption model (EDM) of tinnitus distress and subsequently validates it statistically using two independent datasets (the Construction Dataset: n = 96 and the Validation Dataset: n = 200). The conceptual EDM was first operationalised as a structural causal model (construction phase). Then multiple regression was used to examine the effect of executive functioning on tinnitus-related distress (validation phase), adjusting for the additional contributions of hearing threshold and psychological distress. For both datasets, executive functioning negatively predicted tinnitus distress score by a similar amount (the Construction Dataset: β = −3.50, p = 0.13 and the Validation Dataset: β = −3.71, p = 0.02). Theoretical implications and applications of the EDM are subsequently discussed; these include the predictive nature of executive functioning in the development of distressing tinnitus, and the clinical utility of the EDM.

Clarke, Nathan A.↗
DOE OSTI2014

Response Surface Energy Modeling of an Electric Vehicle over a Reduced Composite Drive Cycle

Response surface methodology (RSM) techniques were applied to develop a predictive model of electric vehicle (EV) energy consumption over the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) standardized drive cycles. The model is based on measurements from a synthetic composite drive cycle. The synthetic drive cycle is a minimized statistical composite of the standardized urban (UDDS), highway (HWFET), and US06 cycles. The composite synthetic drive cycle is 20 minutes in length thereby reducing testing time of the three standard EPA cycles by over 55%. Vehicle speed and acceleration were used as model inputs for a third order least squared regression model predicting vehicle battery power output as a function of the drive cycle. The approach reduced three cycles and 46 minutes of drive time to a single test of 20 minutes. Application of response surface modeling to the synthetic drive cycle is shown to predict energy consumption of the three EPA cycles within 2.6% of the actual measured values. Additionally, the response model may be used to predict energy consumption of any cycle within the speed/acceleration envelope of the synthetic cycle. This technique results in reducing test time, which additionally provides a model that may be used to expand the analysis and understanding of the vehicle under consideration.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
NASA NTRS1986

Rarefied aerodynamics and upper atmosphere density from multiple orbiter flight measurements

Flight data from six flights of the experimental High Resolution Accelerometer Package (HIRAP), a micro-g accelerometer system, have been analyzed to produce rarefied flow aerodynamic coefficients of the Orbiter and freestream density in the altitude range from 60 km to 160 km. The direct measurements of the lift to drag ratio (L/D) are used to obtain individual normalized body-axis force coefficients in a least-squares regression scheme. An aerodynamics model based on an exponential function of Knudsen number is used for the individual coefficients. The calculated L/D from the flight determined coefficients agree with the multiple flight data measurements to within about 5 percent. Simultaneously, an upper altitude density variation is also obtained from the data. Density altitude profiles exhibit a wave feature on all flights. The wave has an amplitude of about + or - 25 percent relative to the 1962 Standard atmosphere model.

Buck, G. M.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Durability of Ceramic Matrix Composites in Combustion Environments

SiO2 scale volatility and the resulting recession of SiC has been previously identified for CVD, as well as sintered, SiC and Si3N4 materials. Linear weight loss and surface recession of SiC was observed as a result of SiO2 volatility for both fuel-lean and fuel-rich gas mixtures. A strong Arrhenius temperature dependence exist and parametric studies using multiple linear regression were used to develop recession relationships as a function of e(sup -Q/RT) central dot P(sup X)V(sup y) for both lean and rich combustion conditions. Recession of 0.2 - 2.0 micron/hr is predicted for typical combustion conditions at 1200 - 1400 C, with a somewhat higher absolute recession rate and activation energy for rich combustion versus lean.

Robinson, Raymond C.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Digital Correlation Microwave Polarimetry: Analysis and Demonstration

The design, analysis, and demonstration of a digital-correlation microwave polarimeter for use in earth remote sensing is presented. We begin with an analysis of three-level digital correlation and develop the correlator transfer function and radiometric sensitivity. A fifth-order polynomial regression is derived for inverting the digital correlation coefficient into the analog statistic. In addition, the effects of quantizer threshold asymmetry and hysteresis are discussed. A two-look unpolarized calibration scheme is developed for identifying correlation offsets. The developed theory and calibration method are verified using a 10.7 GHz and a 37.0 GHz polarimeter. The polarimeters are based upon 1-GS/s three-level digital correlators and measure the first three Stokes parameters. Through experiment, the radiometric sensitivity is shown to approach the theoretical as derived earlier in the paper and the two-look unpolarized calibration method is successfully compared with results using a polarimetric scheme. Finally, sample data from an aircraft experiment demonstrates that the polarimeter is highly-useful for ocean wind-vector measurement.

Piepmeier, J. R.↗